2007-2008 NBA Regular Season Thread

[Butter]

Screw that, how about 5 low post threats? Then you got yourself a team.

[Arles]

I agree. I have watched Shawn and the Suns for the past 3 seasons and I was adamant all the way up to last season that the Suns should stick with this style and go for it. However, after watching Phoenix fizzle out against teams like SA and Dallas (and get extremely lucky to be the LA teams), it's obvious that the Suns have no margin for error in the postseason against teams like SA and Dallas. So, one bad break (ie, suspension), one injury or one bad 5-minute spell and they probably lose.

This "small ball" setup is great for the regular season as it's tough to matchup against when you face Utah, LA, Phoenix and Denver in a one week period. But, when you give a coach like Pop or Phil Jackson a 7-game series to plan, many aspects of it are exposed - especially when you have the postseason where few handchecks or "speed reducing" fouls are called.

As to Marion, the big thing is consistency. Here are his numbers in the playoff games against SA:

42 m, 16 Pts, 6 Reb
38 m, 5 Pts, 10 reb
44 m, 26 Pts, 7 Reb
44 m, 12 Pts, 12 Reb
46m, 24 Pts, 17 Reb (no Amare/Diaw)
41m, 11 Pts, 11 Reb

So, his average is nice, but his consistency was not there (esp on defense against Parker).

[Brian Swartz]

one low post threat - you can double team that.

two low post threats? good luck.


otherwise i see valid points in both your views. at this point it's just a matter of seeing the product on the floor to put the speculation to rest.

Just to clarify, my point had nothing to do with whether or not they can double-team them both. I was saying that they already can force a double-team with Amare. They don't normally do that. Why? Because it makes their offense stagnant.

We'll see what happens when the playoffs roll around, the West is going to be insane this year.

[Arles]

I agree. Even best case for Phoenix, I think the Lakers and Spurs are still favorites. The Hornets look tough and Dallas is always in the mix - not to mention Utah, who may be playing the best right now.

[nfg22]

I didnt see the game but the write ups are saying Kobe and Gasol looked flawless together last night. Of course, the game before they lost and neither looked good. I wonder how they are going to play out...

[korme]

This sucks for Houston, who is on pace to miss the playoffs, which is unbelievable.

[JeeberD]

The Rockets are currently in ninth, true, but we're also a mere five games out of first and the hottest team in the league. There's way too much season left to start worrying...

[larrymcg421]

Without Garnett, Celts beat Spurs by 8. Glad to hear that the "soft schedule" whining has subsided.

[nfg22]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

Without Garnett, Celts beat Spurs by 8. Glad to hear that the "soft schedule" whining has subsided.

Yes but while KG was out, so was Tony Parker, and I think TD vs KG is an easier matchup for San Antonio, than Tony versus Rondo for Boston.

[Brian Swartz]

What he said. The game really doesn't mean all THAT much -- it was a close game between two of the elite. Good win for Boston though, but with Parker and Garnett in there the dynamic changes for both teams on both ends.

The schedule is irrelevant too. Home-court advantadge doesn't even mean all that much. Both teams defend, rebound, and have multiple players who can score one-on-one ... which means both will have a lot to say come playoff time.

[stevew]

Someday the Cavs will get healthy again. Right now, we've got about 6 guys in various states of injury. Including 4 of our best 7 players.

[Groundhog]

Eric Snow, Larry Hughes, Ira Newble, LeBron James, Big Z. With nothing on the bench.

That, good sirs, is a terrible lineup.

[MrBug708]

Sarver made a great business decision in trading for Shaq. A hell of a lot of Shaq Sun's jerseys out there

[Eaglesfan27]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

Sarver made a great business decision in trading for Shaq. A hell of a lot of Shaq Sun's jerseys out there

Agreed. That is why I never agreed with the financial arguments against the Shaq trade when it was a rumor. Shaq is still a money maker.

[nfg22]

Originally Posted by Eaglesfan27

Agreed. That is why I never agreed with the financial arguments against the Shaq trade when it was a rumor. Shaq is still a money maker.

Lets see him make money when they dont go far in the playoffs. Lets see that fan base backup a team in rebuilding mode. Instead of drawing fans he will just cost 20 mill the next two seasons.

[rkmsuf]

Rebuilding mode is after Shaq is gone. This is win mode for the next two seasons. Whether they do or not remains to be seen. Either way The Diesel will draw them way better than Marion did.

[nfg22]

Honestly, Shaq hasnt proved to be anything on the defensive end this year. They most likely wont be able to beat anyone with a big man. To add, they now dont have that scrapper who gets the hustle points. That is a role player almost all champions have. I may be wrong but this trade will cost them 20 mill over the next two years, I hope shaq sells more jerseys than anyone has ever.

[Sublime 2]

I hate to stray from the Shaq topic, but I'm thoroughly impressed with the way Doc Rivers has gone 5-2 without KG, with wins over Dallas and San Antonio no less. The team also had a damn good chance of going 7-0 over that same span, with losses to Orlando and Cleveland by a combined 4 points. I was one of the many calling for his head last year, but he's proven that given veteran talent and role players he's been a more than competent coach. Many can say that a monkey could coach a team with 3 All-Stars, but to coach them to a 39-9 record and be 16-0 against the West is something I'm impressed with from Doc.

: End Doc Apology :

[Arles]

Originally Posted by nfg22

Lets see him make money when they dont go far in the playoffs.

You mean like the last 3 seasons without Shaq? I think the fact they averaged almost 60 wins a season with the "small ball" lineup but never made it past the conference finals is why the fan base was calling for a move. Doing the same thing this season (and expecting a different result) would have drove the fans even more upset. Atleast now, they've tried a new approach that could (or could not) pay off.

Lets see that fan base backup a team in rebuilding mode. Instead of drawing fans he will just cost 20 mill the next two seasons.

Marcus Banks was on the books for $14 million past this season and Marion was on the books for $17 mil next season. So, you end up paying an extra $9 million over the next few seasons to have Shaq as opposed to a piece of plywood on the bench (Banks) and one more season of Marion. And if you think Marion would have been a happy camper on his final season with no extension, you're nuts. You're also nuts if you think a 31-year old Marion should get a 5-year extension at $17 mil per (which is what he wanted).

In the end, the Suns have a 2-year window no matter how you slice. So, it comes down to whether you think the same "small Suns" would have won in that window or whether they needed to adjust their personnel to better fit the playoff-style game. In the end, I don't know that it matters a ton. They weren't going to win with Marion and it's only a slightly better chance they win with Shaq. Still, they make a heck of a lot more money with Shaq and the Suns are much more relevent with him as well. And, maybe they catch lightning in a bottle in the next 15 months and win with him.

[Arles]

Dola, this move is also a major cover for Sarver. The reality is that Sarver and D'Antoni (as GM) have made some very questionable moves to save cash over the past few seasons including essentially selling the rights to Francisco Garcia, Rajon Rondo, Sergio Rodriguez, James Jones, Kurt Thomas and two future No. 1s. They've also not resigned solid players like Joe Johnson (although they did get Diaw and a No. 1), Tim Thomas and Eddie House because of cash.

So, had the Suns flamed out this season and not won for a fourth season, all the focus would be on Sarver being a cheap a$$ and he would have taken a TON of heat for it. Instead, if they lose now, he can say how he spent all this extra money on Shaq to win (even though it's very little when you factor the $9 mil difference in contracts to the additional revenue/exposure).

[Groundhog]

So, by trading away Marion, who's big problem was that he felt he was underpaid and would no doubt expect a big extension when his current contract is up, they look less cheap?

I think it'll take more than this trade to make up for the various talent give-aways the Suns have embarked upon these last couple of offseasons.

[nfg22]

Well I guess Shaq's performance wil settle our argument but Im still right in the fact that Marion would have opted out after this season(Cha-Ching for the Sun's...Thats 17m.) Plus with exp contracts being all the rage, Banks would have been worth alot next season. Plus, can you tell me what Shaq adds to the Sun's? Other than a couple mil, at most, in jersey sales? What makes you think he can do anything for Pheonix? He is basically an imobile post player. He just isnt good anymore, he has turned average.

[Brian Swartz]

If you go back to the last page, you'll find that Arles and I had a lengthy back-and-forth on that very subject . At a minimum it will tell you exactly what Shaq can add in his opinion, and while I don't agree with his assessment it isn't a totally off-the-reservation foolish notion either, there's a certain measure of legitimacy in his analysis.

[stevew]

Banks isn't an expiring deal, he's basically on one of the worst contracts in the league right now. 3 years, about 15 million after this year, and he barely contributes.

I don't think that Marion will opt out.

[nfg22]

Yeah I saw the whole discussion last page but I just dont thnk Shaq adds much. The problem is that the people who see Shaq as the solution will look at what he adds but wont recognize how much the Sun's lost in Marion.

My bad, I thought next years was Banks' last. Marion might not have opted out, that is a possibility but with all the talk of him being unhappy, it might have happened. I dont think he will now that he is in Miami where he can be a main option. Also, Shaq still has the worst contract by far in the NBA. 40 mil in two years.

Arles if Shaq gets the them the champ they made the right deal. If not it was the wrong one. I dont know if Shaq put them over the luxury tax but if he did that is another 5 mil because all teams under it get a free 5 mil.

[Groundhog]

Marion won't opt out because I don't think he'll find that kinda cash elsewhere. Though I admit I don't know which other players are in FA at that point as well.

Now that I think about it, this year might be the year to hit FA, as don't LeBron and Wade both finish their contracts after next season? (Carmello too?)

[nfg22]

They finish in two years but two teams have that kind of cap room this year...Memphis and Philly. Marion might not find that money but if he were still with Pheonix the chance is he would have opted out.

[Groundhog]

So, Larry Hughes scored 40 points. And no, I'm not talking about combined over the month of February, I'm talking today against Orlano Magic (lack of D intentional).

[Groundhog]

dola

Though I have to admit, for a shit player, Larry Hughes does have the odd (ok, the very odd) game where he looks pretty amazing shooting the ball. He has a pretty nice shooting form IMO (when he isn't limping), and I've always been a little perplexed that he doesn't hit more.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Groundhog

dola

Though I have to admit, for a shit player, Larry Hughes does have the odd (ok, the very odd) game where he looks pretty amazing shooting the ball. He has a pretty nice shooting form IMO (when he isn't limping), and I've always been a little perplexed that he doesn't hit more.

He's one of the most frustrating players I've ever seen play. After watching him in college I pictured him becoming a player similar to what D-Wade is now, but what kills him is shot selection and general basketball IQ. He kills himself and his teams by forcing stupid shot after stupid shot.

He could easily be a great complimentary player to Lebron in Cleveland and a guy that defends the other team's best perimeter player, but instead he just doesn't seem to understand how to actually play basketball.

[korme]

Originally Posted by Groundhog

So, Larry Hughes scored 40 points. And no, I'm not talking about combined over the month of February, I'm talking today against Orlano Magic (lack of D intentional).

I dropped Larry Hughes last week in Fantasy BB for Kareem Rush.

Fucking Larry Hughes!

[stevew]

LOLarry Hughes scores 40. He better be shipped to the Knicks by noon tomorrow.

[JeeberD]

heylarryhughespleasestoptakingsomanybadshots.com/

[Neon_Chaos]

I guess Sprewell should have just taken that 3-year $21 mil offer.

[Vince]

So how long does Don Nelson stick with Webber? He's been in the lineup it looks like for three games, all as a starter (which is really weird to me -- why pick someone up off the scrap heap who is old, mostly busted, and out of shape, and make him a starter?). He's averaging about 12 minutes and 2 points. I haven't been able to watch any of the games, but those are atrocious stats for a "starter," especially when Harrington is playing amazing off the bench.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by nfg22

Well I guess Shaq's performance wil settle our argument but Im still right in the fact that Marion would have opted out after this season(Cha-Ching for the Sun's...Thats 17m.)

I doubt that as no one is going to have $17 million lying around in FA money that they want to devote towards Marion. Instead, Marion would probably pickup his option and then sulk until the Suns traded him or extended him. Not exactly a great position to be in as you embark on what is probably your last season to win (08-09). Plus, even if he does opt-out, the Suns have lost a major asset for nothing going into their final championship window as they would be over the cap. All they'd have is the MLE with which to replace him.

Plus with exp contracts being all the rage, Banks would have been worth alot next season.

As explained, Banks had a terrible deal that Suns would have been paying until 2011.

Arles if Shaq gets the them the champ they made the right deal. If not it was the wrong one. I dont know if Shaq put them over the luxury tax but if he did that is another 5 mil because all teams under it get a free 5 mil.

I think that's a fair stance on it. My only qualification would be that I didn't see the Suns winning it with Marion over the next two seasons, so the "worst case" aspect of it is a little tempered on my end for that reason. I don't know that going to the conference finals and losing with Marion in one of the next two seasons is better than losing in the 2nd round with Shaq. Atleast you make more money and are more relevant with Shaq.

I agree that Shaq is a very big risk from a basketball standpoint (but no real risk financially), so I get what Brian and others have stated. My biggest point here is that I think the Suns had to move Marion for a solid big to have a better shot at winning it all. Now, whether you think Shaq is the right big is another question. IMO, I can't think of anyone that gives Phoenix a better chance that they could have gotten for Marion (ie, Ben Wallace, J O'Neal, Darko, AK-47).

In the end, I think Shaq offers the least risk financially and highest ceiling for a championship of all the moves they could have made. Does that mean it will work? No, but I would rather have him for $40 million over the next 2 than Wallace for $30m over 2, O'Neal for $45m over 2, Kirilenko for $47m over 3 or a raw Darko who still needs to develop during the Suns' closing window.

[Arles]

As an FYI, Eddie Johnson wrote a very good blog on why this could work:

http://blogs.hoopshype.com/blogs/johnson/index.php

Now, he is a Suns color guy, so he's certainly going to be taking their side. But, I think summarizes the case for him (and making a move) fairly well.

[nfg22]

Maybe the Suns are just in a bad position no matter what. You may be right. With Utah, LA, Portland and Mavs. I dont see SA and the Suns doing much in another year...

[stevew]

Originally Posted by Vince

So how long does Don Nelson stick with Webber? He's been in the lineup it looks like for three games, all as a starter (which is really weird to me -- why pick someone up off the scrap heap who is old, mostly busted, and out of shape, and make him a starter?). He's averaging about 12 minutes and 2 points. I haven't been able to watch any of the games, but those are atrocious stats for a "starter," especially when Harrington is playing amazing off the bench.

Eh, they are 2-1 with Webber, and if they could have shut down that offensive juggernaught of Chris Duhon they would be 3-0. It's not so much who starts anyways, the most important thing is who finishes. Webber will eventually play himself into shape, and hopefully they can make a run towards the playoffs. I don't expect them to win a series this offseason, as they are a worse team than last year with the loss of Richardson.

[Brian Swartz]

With Utah, LA, Portland and Mavs. I dont see SA and the Suns doing much in another year...

The Spurs are still going to be around a while longer. Duncan is 31, Ginobili is 30, Parker is only 25. As long as those three are around and productive, which I'd expect to be another 3-4 years, they'll still be able to make some noise. While T.P. has been out Duncan has showed that he can still be a 20-10 guy every night if needed to be and Manu hasn't lost anything yet. They will need to find new role players from the free-agent market eventually, and Bowen has started to decline, but they aren't going to fall off the face of the earth to the extent that Phoenix will when Nash and Shaq reach the end of their careers.

There aren't a lot of teams more attractive to free-agents than San Antonio, a few but not many. They'll be able to find decent players that fit with their system as long as their big three and Popovich are around.

[MrBug708]

I guess we can write off Dallas now. What an awful trade for Dallas

[rkmsuf]

Kidd for Devan Harris? Seems good for Dallas unless you think Kidd has nothing left.

[nfg22]

seems good to me...but can the west get any stronger?The top of it at least...

[MikeVic]

The West playoffs will be so fun.

[nfg22]

Dola,
Would Orlando even be in the playoffs in the west? That is if they played the West schedule.

[Vince]

Originally Posted by stevew

Eh, they are 2-1 with Webber, and if they could have shut down that offensive juggernaught of Chris Duhon they would be 3-0. It's not so much who starts anyways, the most important thing is who finishes. Webber will eventually play himself into shape, and hopefully they can make a run towards the playoffs. I don't expect them to win a series this offseason, as they are a worse team than last year with the loss of Richardson.

Well, I can't imagine he's contributing a ton that doesn't show up on the stat sheet. The 2-1 could be in spite of him (remember, I don't really get to watch the games, so I have no idea). While he very well may play himself into shape...how good could he possibly be? To top it all off, most of his PT has come at the expense of Biedrins, who has been having himself a hell of a season.

I think the 5 best players on the team are easily BD, Monta, Biedrins, Jackson and Harrington -- why not have Webber come off the bench?

[Vince]

And good god the West Playoffs are going to be a nightmare for a low seed. My poor Warriors

[Young Drachma]

I'm glad the Nets got something decent in return for him. I think they might try to deal Devin Harris, since they think Marcus Williams can start. But..I just think that the sooner they get younger and faster, the better they'll be long term.

[watravaler]

Still think the Suns take the West, but yeah, the WC playoffs are going to be amazing. Short term win for the Mavs, long term for the Nets, imo...

Decent trade overall, certainly not the joke-like collusion that went on between Buss and the Grizz...

[stevew]

Thank god Ferry didn't figure out how to trade for Kidd.