POTUS 2016 General Election Discussion Thread

[SirFozzie]

And the Times moved forward a story they were going to run in the Sunday paper. Holy shit.

Log In - The New York Times

edit: fuck, beaten

[Thomkal]

Well that didn't take long:

Clinton unveils video on Trump's crude comments about women - POLITICO

I almost wonder if she should not debate him again.

[stevew]

Like do people really expect this to hurt trump? He's survived so many gaffes already that this too will pass. The election is still very much a toss up.

[Flasch186]

Originally Posted by stevew

Like do people really expect this to hurt trump? He's survived so many gaffes already that this too will pass. The election is still very much a toss up.

Yup, I do. This will kill any chance he had of getting any female undecideds. He had to get them to come his way to win and that is toast. He's even losing some of the hold your nose and vote Trump republicans. Its ovah. Toast.

[larrymcg421]

Not only will it hurt Trump with hold your nose voters, but I think it could actually create hold your nose voters for Hillary. Some female Stein voters may now be convinced to try and defeat Trump at all costs.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by stevew

Like do people really expect this to hurt trump? He's survived so many gaffes already that this too will pass. The election is still very much a toss up.

Of course it will hurt him. How could it not.

[PilotMan]

Fuck Trump and fuck anyone who has a daughter who votes for him after this. Clinton needs to tie Trump with that kid from Stanford and Cosby.

[larrymcg421]

Oh my god. He used his apology video as a free campaign commercial.

[Dutch]

It's a shame we didn't get this video when it could've helped rule him out of the GOP running. Why are we just learning about this now? Dirty politics. Shady AF.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by Dutch

It's a shame we didn't get this video when it could've helped rule him out of the GOP running. Why are we just learning about this now? Dirty politics. Shady AF.

Billy really let Jeb down.

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

Oh my god. He used his apology video as a free campaign commercial.

"This is a meaningless distraction. Now, let's talk about Bill Clinton..."

[PilotMan]

I think Dutch just channeled Ted Cruz's thoughts.

It's a shame we didn't get this video when it could've helped rule him out of the GOP running. Why are we just learning about this now? Dirty politics. Shady AF.

[cuervo72]

"I'm the one who said 'Just grab them in the pussy'"

-- Trumpty Trump



(of course someone has already made a Trumpty Dance parody song)

[PilotMan]

Lol, a commentator just said that Trump used the "Pee Wee Herman Defense", "I know you are but what am I."

LMFAO!

[mckerney]

this is the most fantastic thing i’ve seen tonight. maybe this year pic.twitter.com/JZPl6iUaJi

— Sam Stein (@samsteinhp) October 8, 2016

[mckerney]

"Yes...that's right, ma'am. The pussy, yes. You just grab 'em by the pussy. It's a metaphor. For Freedom. I am going to kill myself soon." pic.twitter.com/8gjeRmTkHJ

— Matt (@YayImOnline) October 7, 2016

[stevew]

I mean this is the thing that finally makes him poisonous for women? As if the 60+ female voter is cool with the fact that he traded her model in for a younger one. Twice. He's a sleazeball but it's just guy talk. I'm sure he probably wasn't actually (literally) serious.

Every cycle there's all these undecideds who are probably the same people that order light sauce on their entree or everything on the side or well done but not burnt. Like concentrate on getting your team out and less about someone who is unable to commit to the amount of sugar they want in their coffee.

He's said like 10 things dumber than this in the cycle. Pounding him on this issue might actually cause a withdrawal and "President Mike Pence" is almost as equally scary as "President Donald Trump"
(god forbid both of them)

[bhlloy]

I don't think this is THE thing, but on top of the comments about the beauty queen being disgusting for putting on a bit of weight and maybe being in a sex tape (and then there being concrete proof that he was a creepy dude in a soft porn himself) and all the other shit he's said, I can well believe this is the final straw for some people.

He had the couple of weeks where he was quiet and near presidential, and Clinton said the stupid stuff and the race was close. Since then he's lost a debate and just had a brutal couple of news cycles. I think unless the Russians or Assange actually have something meaty on Hillary, or he wipes the floor with her at a couple of the remaining debates, this is all but over. FWIW 538 now has Clinton ahead in every state up to Georgia, which I don't think will happen but is an absolute ass-kicking.

[Shkspr]

Originally Posted by stevew

I mean this is the thing that finally makes him poisonous for women?

I suspect evangelicals are the most likely groups to actually flee. The thing that strikes me, though, is that the anonymous, behind-the-scenes quotes from Trump advisers and insiders seem much more pessimistic this time around. The attack dogs that show up on media outlets are still publicly spinning this as just mirroring Bill's attitude towards women, but privately, it seems like this may be something that makes lots of volunteers and campaigners go "why bother?" Trump's GOTV operation is already much smaller than Clinton's. If they're less motivated to perform wholeheartedly as well, then this may be the strike that hits.

But to win, Trump has to grab another 5% or so among white women than he's been polling, and this won't help.

[stevew]

I'll have to see if this finally changed my mom's vote. I doubt it, but who knows.

[stevew]

We're calling this Pussygate, right?

[Butter]

PING: tarcone

[CraigSca]

I think some of you are forgetting that a lot of Trump voters consider a vote for Hillary as a vote for the antichrist.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by CraigSca

I think some of you are forgetting that a lot of Trump voters consider a vote for Hillary as a vote for the antichrist.

No one is arguing that Trump will lose every single voter. But this will hurt him by:

1) sending weak Trump voters away.
2) preventing him from acquiring new undecided voters (which he desperately needs to do at this point).
3) strengthening Hillary's support.

[bronconick]

Some of this hurting more than the 167 other things Trump has said is because we just entered the last month to Election night and we're in between debates. Non-Political Americans (80-90% of them) are now paying attention and he's shooting himself in the foot. Repeatedly.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by CraigSca

I think some of you are forgetting that a lot of Trump voters consider a vote for Hillary as a vote for the antichrist.

Sure. But turnout. I've already seen two people I grew up with who now live in Ohio who say they have moved off of nose-holding in the last 12 hours. She says she is going to leave POTUS blank and her hubby says he will vote third party. Trump can't afford for the nose-holders not to show up.

[Ben E Lou]

Dola: not to mention the #NeverHillary younger voters that he might possibly offend enough that they flip to #StillHateHillaryButGottaStopTrump

[JPhillips]

People also react more to the audio/visual than they would to a transcript. This wouldn't hurt him as much if there wasn't video.

[Jas_lov]

Someone above said it's still a toss up election but it wasn't even before this recent Trump fiasco. He was already trending downward and I don't see how this will help.

RCP's electoral map now has Hillary up 247-165 with 126 in the toss up category. They currently have MN, CO and NH as toss ups and Hillary is up by 4.3, 4.3 and 5.0 in the polling averages for those states. Those 3 states would put her at 280 and she's taken a slight lead in FL, NV and NC.

[jeff061]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Of course it will hurt him. How could it not.

For the same reasons he's still a viable candidate. None of this is new or adds any additional insight into who his is, it's more of the same with him. He pretty much says these things in debates. Not to mention, it's 2016, people won't be talking about this anymore in 2 days. Hilllary needs to keep finding new material right up to the debate and I'm not sure rehashing the same stuff will work.

I'm surprised people think this is going to sink him. Desperatly hope I'm wrong.

[panerd]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

People also react more to the audio/visual than they would to a transcript. This wouldn't hurt him as much if there wasn't video.

Yep the Ray Rice effect. Written report he beat up his wife on an elevator... "Shrug... just NFL players doing what they do". Video released... "OMG!!!! Fire everyone, ban him for life!"

At this point Trump supporters get exactly what they deserve (outside of nuclear war) if they vote for this asshole. Get believe anyone considers him a viable candidate for president regardless of their views on Clinton.

[Flasch186]

Ovah

[Easy Mac]

Originally Posted by stevew

We're calling this Pussygate, right?

I'm going with vaginazi

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by stevew

I mean this is the thing that finally makes him poisonous for women?

I seriously think this is a learning opportunity. Call him misogynist... quote him calling specific women "pigs"... point out his statements about female candidates and journalists... all those things basically failed to make the debate "tip" enough to change the entire campaign. (Isolating what did and did not happen in this campaign is going to prove completely impossible, just given the sheer number of "incidents" he has triggered)

Get him ON TAPE saying a very very memorable and objectionable phrase, and maybe it finally does "tip" here.

Maybe it's the political equivalent of the Ray Rice footage.

[QuikSand]

...and following on that... how much less impact would all this have had he used the word "crotch" in the most-quoted sentence of this decade-old tape? We'll never know, but don't we think that specific word is playing a major part in all this? Just the fact that he was boorish and rapey and awful might not be enough... but the exact phrasing seems to be a big part of it, I think.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by jeff061

For the same reasons he's still a viable candidate. None of this is new or adds any additional insight into who his is, it's more of the same with him. He pretty much says these things in debates. Not to mention, it's 2016, people won't be talking about this anymore in 2 days. Hilllary needs to keep finding new material right up to the debate and I'm not sure rehashing the same stuff will work.

I'm surprised people think this is going to sink him. Desperatly hope I'm wrong.

Sorry Jeff. but I think you are here. We have him, a man running for President of the US, leader of the free world, speaking on tape, not just words about a women's private parts and trying to force himself on a married woman-how can he be viable after that. Clinton sure won't let him be-she and her surrogates will be talking this up all through Election Day. It's not going to just go away in a couple of days. There have already been other stories coming out where women have said how they were treated by him, and as far as I know the Nancy mentioned in the tape (I assume Nancy O'Dell, co-host of Access Hollywood at the time) has not come forward yet to talk about it.

I'm sure Trump supporters want this to blow away like a lot of stuff has, but this close to the election, don't see how that is possible.

[HerRealName]

Originally Posted by Ryche

Those one has been out there for quit awhile, her subsequent actions after the alleged assaults really weaken her credibility.

This reads like a modern remake of the beginning of Le Morte d'Arthur only Trump keeps trying to get laid instead of starting a war.

[JonInMiddleGA]

I'd anticipate this having more of a public comment impact than an actual ballot casting impact.

Trump could be on film raping kittens & he'd still be a better human being than his opponent and a better (though probably not "good") President.

I can't imagine this changing (or removing) more than 1-2 percent of actual votes. Thing is, that may be just the size margin he can't absorb.

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

I can't imagine this changing (or removing) more than 1-2 percent of actual votes. Thing is, that may be just the size margin he can't absorb.

QFT - think this is probably a solid take. I also think as somebody mentioned above it probably moves the needle a little in getting some of the BernieBros on the #NeverTrump bandwagon.

But overall even if it's "just" a 1-2 percent swing, that's the last thing Trump needs right now.

[Ben E Lou]

If nothing else, this particular incident might at least put an end to the inane blathering about "Trump doesn't want to be President." He could easily drop out now, blame Crooked Hillary, the liberal Media, the NeverTrump RINOs, and, I'm sure, a few others that I'm leaving out, and (at least in his world) save face.

BREAKING: Donald Trump tells newspapers that `I'd never withdraw' and there is `zero chance I'll quit' the race for president.

— The Associated Press (@AP) October 8, 2016

[mckerney]

[Ben E Lou]

Ryan uninvited Trump to a campaign event in Wisconsin. It has started. It sounds interesting.

Paul Ryan speaking now in Wisconsin. People shouting, "What about Trump?" and "You turned your back on him!"

— Robert Costa (@costareports) October 8, 2016

[mckerney]

CNN breaking news headline on their front page: Trump: OK to call Ivanka a piece of ass

No the media's just digging for whatever old statements they can find, wonder what we'll see in the next few days.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by mckerney

No the media's just digging for whatever old statements they can find.

But of course...

Donald Trump engaged in crude and demeaning conversations about women over a 17-year-period with radio shock-jock Howard Stern, according to a review by CNN's KFile of hours of newly uncovered audio.

And really, you can't blame them. It's a good time to get clicks for that stuff.

[SirFozzie]

RNC halts Victory project work for Trump - POLITICO

Stop working on Trump Victory projects, and basically let the other side destroy your hopes (and True Trump-ites may stay home in disillusionment).

Or keep working, and watch you get tarred with the Trump Tar and risk the hand-to-nosers say "I can't support this party even against Hillary".)

It's the Ogre's Choice. Die Fast or Die Slow.

[flere-imsaho]

If Pence wants to have a hope in 2020, he needs to start thinking seriously if he stays on the ticket.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

If Pence wants to have a hope in 2020, he needs to start thinking seriously if he stays on the ticket.

All Pence campaign events have been removed from the Trump web site. Lots of buzz on Twitter about that one of course.

[PilotMan]

Trump doesn't need a running mate. His kids will totally take over after he dies. We don't need to worry about a thing. He and his kids are gonna to make 'merica great again. You'll see.

[AlexB]

"I'd never withdraw. I've never withdrawn in my life"

Probably not the best phrasology given the circumstances

[Ben E Lou]

Trump is retweeting Juanita Broddrick now. This "debate" tomorrow night.

[CraigSca]

One has to wonder, how does Trump start his next speech at his next event? Address it, ignore it, what? Crazy.