Werewolf LXX Pleasure Cruise - (GAME OVER)

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

oliegirl killed path12 and jeheinz has spent the past day arguing against Lathum, on top of their votes. This strikes me as most suspicious. This was a tough call, as I think I leaned more toward voting oliegirl. But jeheinz already has a vote, and we need a lynch. So...

VOTE JEHEINZ

Here's why Olie is Wolf #3 with CR and Lathum, let's summarize

- Whittle down pool of people to 3 suspected wolves (me, olie and KWhit)
- Eliminate the most trusted of the 3 (wisely) to give creedence to the argument, leaving one villager and one wolf-comrade
- Say it could be either, but choose the villager by shooing the knocks of the wolf under the rug ("I learned more toward oliegirl, but heinz has a vote...")

[jeheinz72]

It's really amazing that people are just willing to pay off Lathum the wolf because he made some smart moves, when there is still time to change it. The guy isn't winning the Best Wolf vote by a 2:1 margin for nothing here people.

- We still have zero verification that any ropes were ever in danger of being cut, ever. He could've (and likely did) completely made that up to gain favor. Not a big leap of faith for him to take

- He handed us the one wolf we all likely would've been all over anyhow. I didn't switch because I thought it was a setup and I wanted a lynch either way, not wanting to put it at risk. I also found it just odd that Pass didn't post at all when he was under fire during a time in which he's normally posting like crazy

- He sets up his eventual poisoning by saying how he could have but didn't do it at first. Don't you guys think that in a game that likely started with no or very few wolves that something like this is well within the realm of an ability the wolves would get to have?

- Don't you find it odd that after Pass and Clap's lynch that it's mccollins, not Lathum who is the night kill? They leave alone the guy who A) Killed their wolf, B) Has garnered some trust because of it and C) Possibly has the ability to do it again? And what happens right after it's announced, Lathum himself saying "This is all such a setup for me", he's just taking on the doubt himself before letting someone else say it. So if it continued to become an issue he could say that he copped to that fact immeditately.

- The only person who has verified any Lathum excursion at all this game is Olie, who just happens to be the one who shot Path and has her own doubts about her.

[jeheinz72]

Seriously people this game is over if this vote stands, I know a number of you have alluded to the fact that "if Lathum's a wolf then he deserves to win"

Deserves? Yes.
Has to? No.

[jeheinz72]

So a lot of you suspect me due to my (foolish) late switch earlier in the game. The vote was Sonic (villager) vs Clap (villager)

If I was a wolf, why the hell would I stick my neck out like that?

[jeheinz72]

Also, if I was a wolf in the clap vs Pass vote, when it was 8-5, why wouldn't I change my vote?

Surely, if I'm a wolf, I'd know that I'm lynching a villager and those that stuck with their vote for clap after Jackal and the tide turned would be question. Wouldn't it almost be the safer move to vote for Pass at that point if I was a wolf?

[Qwikshot]

*slurping margaritas in heaven* been fun playing with you all...

[oliegirl]

I'm heading out shortly and will be in and out the rest of the day...I've already turned in my excursion request for the day and voted...

I'm getting married tomorrow and we are leaving in the afternoon for our honeymoon, I had let Alan know about this prior to the game starting...I'll have limited access on my phone, I'll be able to vote and send PM's but don't expect a ton of input from me otherwise

[jeheinz72]

Congrats Olie and have fun!

...even if you are a wolf!

[claphamsa]

contrats olie.....

[oliegirl]

I'm not a wolf...I swear on the sacred vows of matrimony that I'll be taking tomorrow...I am not a wolf.

[path12]

Olie, congrats. Between your dad and your wedding you've had quite a week! Best wishes to you both.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by oliegirl

I'm not a wolf...I swear on the sacred vows of matrimony that I'll be taking tomorrow...I am not a wolf.

Well then you need to change your vote off of a fellow passenger!

[oliegirl]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Well then you need to change your vote off of a fellow passenger!

I was planning on voting for NFG today, but I don't want to be the cause of a no lynch or anything like that, so I voted with the village...

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by oliegirl

I was planning on voting for NFG today, but I don't want to be the cause of a no lynch or anything like that, so I voted with the village...

NFG may be the 3rd wolf instead of you, but you should really vote Lathum with me. I mean there are 8 of us left, 40% is 3.2 so it's 4 votes needed for a lynch.

Its 6-1 now, so even if you changed, it's 5-2, so there wouldn't be a no-lynch unless some other folks wisely smartened up.

[jeheinz72]

KWhit - You're on and we both know you're a villager.

What are your real thoughts? I know your vote for me was a placeholder just as much. Now that a no-lynch is not really at risk, what do you think?

[Lathum]

Heinze- I was left alive bacause of all the scrutiny I have endured this game, why kill the guy everyone is looking at.

I was kept alive specificly for the end game purpose of lynching me.

[KWhit]

Why do you say a no-lynch is not a risk? And the only way you could be really positive I'm a villager is if you're a wolf or you're a seer. If you're a seer, you better reveal what you know before you go down.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Heinze- I was left alive bacause of all the scrutiny I have endured this game, why kill the guy everyone is looking at.

I was kept alive specificly for the end game purpose of lynching me.

No, you're too powerful with the vote manipulation and enough people trusted you that in a game with some many lesser-active people the risk/reward of them playing it that way doesn't jive.

[Lathum]

I Jeheinze claims to be a seer that is a guarentee he is a wolf, he would have come out way sooner.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

No, you're too powerful with the vote manipulation and enough people trusted you that in a game with some many lesser-active people the risk/reward of them playing it that way doesn't jive.

I don't follow you here?

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by KWhit

Why do you say a no-lynch is not a risk? And the only way you could be really positive I'm a villager is if you're a wolf or you're a seer. If you're a seer, you better reveal what you know before you go down.

I'm not a Seer, but I ran through basically all of your posts yesterday as research and I'd say aside from Taz (and myself) you're person I'd trust the most. And if I do go down, Seer or not, you have to realize this game is basically over. It's likely 5:3 right now, minus me and the night kill and that's ballgame.

As far as no-lynch, I mean it's not as risk in the sense that we have 4 votes. Presuming the votes are only on 2 candidates, it couldn't get to more of a split than 4-3 or 3-4, with only 4 votes needed to top 40%. So it's not a risk anymore now that 7 of us have actually voted.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I Jeheinze claims to be a seer that is a guarentee he is a wolf, he would have come out way sooner.

I'm not a Seer, not one bit. I'm as vanilla as the ice cream.

[Lathum]

Heinze, if your math is correct it doesn't matter then because I'm a villager also so either way we would be screwed.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I don't follow you here?

Basically, if you were really a villager and you just offed one of the wolves basically by duking it to them (and using an effective Duke power a 2nd time, 2nd time of who knows how many) then that risk alone would be worth off'ing you just to not deal with that.

On top of that fact though, you have the fact that many people here still seem to trust you (though they shouldn't).

If I was a wolf (which I'm not), I'd absolutely take out a semi-trusted villager with the ability to possibly thwart a lynch-vote that we may have escaped.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Heinze, if your math is correct it doesn't matter then because I'm a villager also so either way we would be screwed.

Then I would say this, either:

A) You're not a villager
or

B) You and I better do some quick thinking because we're about to lose the damn game though.

If you're a villager, which I still don't think you are, you don't want to see me lynched.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Basically, if you were really a villager and you just offed one of the wolves basically by duking it to them (and using an effective Duke power a 2nd time, 2nd time of who knows how many) then that risk alone would be worth off'ing you just to not deal with that.

On top of that fact though, you have the fact that many people here still seem to trust you (though they shouldn't).

If I was a wolf (which I'm not), I'd absolutely take out a semi-trusted villager with the ability to possibly thwart a lynch-vote that we may have escaped.

I should add, if only because your power seems to add X votes to a player.
Now if that X is say, 3, then it's a much bigger deal now than it was the first time you did it.

3 out of 8 is a huge deal now. No way they pass up 2 chances to kill you.

[Lathum]

Heinze, I've been looking throught who is left and I just don't see anyone else jump out.

The way I see it is you or me are gonna have to get lynched at some point.

I know I am good, so you are the most logical candidate today. IF you come back good then I'll look at who jumped onboard.

But to be honest all your end game talk seems like wolf-speak to try and scare people away from lynching you for fear of losing the game.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Heinze, I've been looking throught who is left and I just don't see anyone else jump out.

The way I see it is you or me are gonna have to get lynched at some point.

I know I am good, so you are the most logical candidate today. IF you come back good then I'll look at who jumped onboard.

But to be honest all your end game talk seems like wolf-speak to try and scare people away from lynching you for fear of losing the game.

Yeah, except it's true. I'm not a wolf.

If you *really* don't want to lose this game (as a villager that is) then you need to move your vote.

What about NFG or CR?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Yeah, except it's true. I'm not a wolf.

If you *really* don't want to lose this game (as a villager that is) then you need to move your vote.

What about NFG or CR?

I don't see NFG being a wolf.

He gave a bullet to Olie, which could have been a gesture of a wolf trying to gain trust but I 'm not sure about that.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I don't see NFG being a wolf.

He gave a bullet to Olie, which could have been a gesture of a wolf trying to gain trust but I 'm not sure about that.

Could he have done it before being converted? That was early in the game

What about CR?

[Lathum]

Dola- I am also of the thinking that there were no conversions.

I think we started with X numbers of wolves who started off not knowing each other and they had to go on an excursion together to find each other.

[Lathum]

sorry Heinze. You sound desperate and even if we wanted to switch I don't think we would get much momentum

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Dola- I am also of the thinking that there were no conversions.

I think we started with X numbers of wolves who started off not knowing each other and they had to go on an excursion together to find each other.

If that's the case then, I'm definitely not a wolf (Qwik was on my initial excursion and we know he's good)

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Lathum

sorry Heinze. You sound desperate and even if we wanted to switch I don't think we would get much momentum

I'm sure I do, but if for no other reason but that in ~80 minutes we all but lose the game (or come really close to it)

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

If that's the case then, I'm definitely not a wolf (Qwik was on my initial excursion and we know he's good)

so was CR and he is still alive...

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Lathum

so was CR and he is still alive...

So just two wolves, one of which (CR) just cast a pretty damning vote on the other (me)?

That wouldn't make much sense.

[Lathum]

ok. So I am thinking about my theory for the wolves having to meet up on excursions so I went back and looked at the excursions the day before RA was killed.

from Pass

Day 2: Conch Shell House, saw KWhit

from CR

.

I tried to go snorkeling at the shipwreck (popular place), and was told I couldn't go (sounds like what Lathum got). As I didn't put down another option, I simply returned to the boat.

from Kwhit

No, I didn't get any choices from the Conch House. I saw you there as well.

JeHeinze

2) Shipwreck snorkeling, nothing happened, saw no one in particular

Interesting that CR claims thats what he tried to do.

NTNDeacon. Conch house also

that was day 3 today i went to the Conch house and saw one other person there.

Taz

I saw ntndeacon at the shell house

Ollie- unknown

[Lathum]

so I find it intersting that the day before RA is killed that Kwhit, Taz and NTNDeacon, all who are still alive, were all at the same location.

[Lathum]

dola- also interestin that you went Snorkling and CR claims to have attempted to have gone.

[jeheinz72]

That's an interesting thought
I'd rule out (at least for now) Taz, given his vote of Pass was early and stayed when he could switched to clap.
I didn't see much wrt KWhit when I looked yesterday?

NTN. Could be a stretch

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Lathum

dola- also interestin that you went Snorkling and CR claims to have attempted to have gone.

Yeah, but like I said, it'd make little sense for CR to vote for me today if we were the wolves here. Maybe a throw-away type vote, or a 1-liner, but you don't drop a 250-word post indicting your lone wolf teammate this late in the game.

[Lathum]

what this tells me is that if Heinze is a wolf then it is likely CR is one.

If Heinze isn't a wolf then your wolves come from the group of KWhit, NTN, Taz.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Yeah, but like I said, it'd make little sense for CR to vote for me today if we were the wolves here. Maybe a throw-away type vote, or a 1-liner, but you don't drop a 250-word post indicting your lone wolf teammate this late in the game.

A. It would be very out of characture for CR to hit and run

B. lone teamate? You have been operating under the assumption that there a 3 wolves?

[jeheinz72]

Or you, CR and likely NFG

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Lathum

B. lone teamate? You have been operating under the assumption that there a 3 wolves?

Yeah, but going along the excursion thought you have it couldn't be 3 since Qwik is dead.

I do think there are 3, I was just expounding on your thought.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Or you, CR and likely NFG

where is the link?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Yeah, but going along the excursion thought you have it couldn't be 3 since Qwik is dead.

I do think there are 3, I was just expounding on your thought.

maybe CR really did go snorkling with you?

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Lathum

where is the link?

Oh it's not excursion based. I think primarily you and CR and someone else. My hunch says nfg but that's neither here nor there at this point really.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Lathum

maybe CR really did go snorkling with you?

I'll admit, that's not rule-out-able. It's not the case I don't think, but yeah, could be.

What about this. If we both think that CR is in cahoots with the other, let's vote for him

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Oh it's not excursion based. I think primarily you and CR and someone else. My hunch says nfg but that's neither here nor there at this point really.

so how did we become wolves then?