2007-2008 NBA Regular Season Thread

[Ajaxab]

Originally Posted by Eaglesfan27

I'm not sure I'd go quite this far, but I disagree with those who think it is a terrible trade for Phoenix. I think he can still be a contributor to a Championship team and Phoenix has failed to win multiple times with Marion and the current crew.

I would be willing to buy this line of argument if it was any other team besides Phoenix, or possibly Golden St. I just can't see Shaq ever getting into good enough shape to run with the Suns. Do they change their whole mindset to work around Shaq? If they do, it would seem to take away from what they do so well, hitting open 3s on the break. If they don't, then Shaq is left huffing and puffing his way from the paint to the foul line (he won't make it to half court by the time Nash and Barbosa are in the lane).

Yes, Shaq can still contribute, but I just don't think that contribution can happen in Phoenix.

[rkmsuf]

Probably better for Shaq. Half the time he won't have to run up court.


Play defense, rebound and outlet pass.

[Subby]

Shaq trade just wouldn't add up for Suns

By John Hollinger
ESPN Insider

The Phoenix Suns have the best record in the Western Conference, 1½ games ahead of their closest rival. They have the best scoring margin in the conference, and the best offensive efficiency in the NBA. They're 8-2 in their past 10 games (while outscoring opponents by nine points per game). And the Suns have a slew of home games coming up because their early schedule was so road-heavy.
In other words, after 48 games they're in as good a position as they've ever been in to win their first conference title since Sir Charles and KJ did it 15 years ago.

And their solution? Blow it up!

The Suns are reportedly in negotiations to trade Shawn Marion -- a man everyone agrees is a vital cog in their attack because of his ability to run opponents into submission from the power forward spot -- for Shaquille O'Neal. (The Suns would include Marcus Banks.)

Good call. Clearly this Nash-Marion-Stoudamire nucleus isn't working out; they've won only 62 and 61 games the two years they've been together. This year they're on pace for a meager 58, so I guess the Suns think this combo has run its course.

My first reaction to hearing reports about this deal was that I was being Punk'd. After that, I checked the calendar to make sure it wasn't April 1, and verified that the voice on the other end of the phone didn't belong to Orson Welles.

But there was no Ashton Kutcher, no Orson Welles, and the calendar says it's February.

Believe it or not, this is a real, live trade discussion that might actually happen. I'm not sure I've adequately conveyed my shock at this development, but suffice it to say nobody I've talked to finds it even remotely sensible.

Shaq may be the one player who is least capable of thriving in the Suns' system. Run the break? No, thank you. Set a high screen and dive to the cup? Maybe 10 years ago. Space the floor for 3s? Please.

He's 35 and out of shape; at the moment he's also hurt. Even when healthy, he's had difficulty staying out of foul trouble long enough to make an impact. While I'll grant that Shaq can still be an offensive force -- even with his struggles this year his PER is a very solid 18.17 -- he's toasted regularly on defense. And if you thought Marion complained about not getting shots, you ain't heard nothing yet.

Even if you subscribe to the idea that Marion had to go -- there have been mutterings about his attitude for quite a while -- you can't seriously tell me this was the best deal on the table.

While matching his $17 million contract is difficult, the fact that there's only a year and a half left on it means there are partners out there. Just thinking out loud, for instance, you'd think New Jersey would have taken Marion in a heartbeat for Vince Carter or Richard Jefferson, and the Andrei Kirilenko deal that was so heavily discussed before the season also would seem preferable.

Marion, by the way, hadn't let his dissatisfaction and his own offseason trade demand affect his play. His 20.25 PER nearly matches last year's 20.87, and he's made up for a reduction in shots by cutting his turnovers and increasing his assists.

But despite his performance they're trading him for an older, less effective player, and one who could not be more of a square peg in a round hole in their system.

And get this -- the deal will worsen their cap situation, too. Shaq is on the books for two years after this one at $20 million a pop, whereas Marion only has one year left at less money, and may opt out after this season. So in addition to messing up their own team, the Suns will be basically handing Pat Riley a big fat Get Out of Jail Free card.

In short, this deal feels like one of these movie scenes where the lead character has a plan and says, "It's crazy ... but it just might work!"
I'm not sure about the working part, but it's definitely crazy. I'm praying this trade doesn't really happen, because the Suns have been too entertaining for too long to screw up their title chances like this.

[Ksyrup]

[MikeVic]

That is awesome.

[Warhammer]

Originally Posted by Ajaxab

I would be willing to buy this line of argument if it was any other team besides Phoenix, or possibly Golden St. I just can't see Shaq ever getting into good enough shape to run with the Suns. Do they change their whole mindset to work around Shaq? If they do, it would seem to take away from what they do so well, hitting open 3s on the break. If they don't, then Shaq is left huffing and puffing his way from the paint to the foul line (he won't make it to half court by the time Nash and Barbosa are in the lane).

Yes, Shaq can still contribute, but I just don't think that contribution can happen in Phoenix.

I'll say this, it worked for the Lakers with Kareem.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Subby

Shaq trade just wouldn't add up for Suns

By John Hollinger
ESPN Insider

The Phoenix Suns have the best record in the Western Conference, 1½ games ahead of their closest rival. They have the best scoring margin in the conference, and the best offensive efficiency in the NBA. They're 8-2 in their past 10 games (while outscoring opponents by nine points per game). And the Suns have a slew of home games coming up because their early schedule was so road-heavy.
In other words, after 48 games they're in as good a position as they've ever been in to win their first conference title since Sir Charles and KJ did it 15 years ago.

And their solution? Blow it up!

The Suns are reportedly in negotiations to trade Shawn Marion -- a man everyone agrees is a vital cog in their attack because of his ability to run opponents into submission from the power forward spot -- for Shaquille O'Neal. (The Suns would include Marcus Banks.)

Good call. Clearly this Nash-Marion-Stoudamire nucleus isn't working out; they've won only 62 and 61 games the two years they've been together. This year they're on pace for a meager 58, so I guess the Suns think this combo has run its course.

My first reaction to hearing reports about this deal was that I was being Punk'd. After that, I checked the calendar to make sure it wasn't April 1, and verified that the voice on the other end of the phone didn't belong to Orson Welles.

But there was no Ashton Kutcher, no Orson Welles, and the calendar says it's February.

Believe it or not, this is a real, live trade discussion that might actually happen. I'm not sure I've adequately conveyed my shock at this development, but suffice it to say nobody I've talked to finds it even remotely sensible.

Shaq may be the one player who is least capable of thriving in the Suns' system. Run the break? No, thank you. Set a high screen and dive to the cup? Maybe 10 years ago. Space the floor for 3s? Please.

He's 35 and out of shape; at the moment he's also hurt. Even when healthy, he's had difficulty staying out of foul trouble long enough to make an impact. While I'll grant that Shaq can still be an offensive force -- even with his struggles this year his PER is a very solid 18.17 -- he's toasted regularly on defense. And if you thought Marion complained about not getting shots, you ain't heard nothing yet.

Even if you subscribe to the idea that Marion had to go -- there have been mutterings about his attitude for quite a while -- you can't seriously tell me this was the best deal on the table.

While matching his $17 million contract is difficult, the fact that there's only a year and a half left on it means there are partners out there. Just thinking out loud, for instance, you'd think New Jersey would have taken Marion in a heartbeat for Vince Carter or Richard Jefferson, and the Andrei Kirilenko deal that was so heavily discussed before the season also would seem preferable.

Marion, by the way, hadn't let his dissatisfaction and his own offseason trade demand affect his play. His 20.25 PER nearly matches last year's 20.87, and he's made up for a reduction in shots by cutting his turnovers and increasing his assists.

But despite his performance they're trading him for an older, less effective player, and one who could not be more of a square peg in a round hole in their system.

And get this -- the deal will worsen their cap situation, too. Shaq is on the books for two years after this one at $20 million a pop, whereas Marion only has one year left at less money, and may opt out after this season. So in addition to messing up their own team, the Suns will be basically handing Pat Riley a big fat Get Out of Jail Free card.

In short, this deal feels like one of these movie scenes where the lead character has a plan and says, "It's crazy ... but it just might work!"
I'm not sure about the working part, but it's definitely crazy. I'm praying this trade doesn't really happen, because the Suns have been too entertaining for too long to screw up their title chances like this.

+1

[rkmsuf]

Originally Posted by Warhammer

I'll say this, it worked for the Lakers with Kareem.

my dad said he didn't work hard enough on defense. And he says that lots of times, he didn't even run down court. And that he
didn't really try . . . except during the playoffs.

[Neon_Chaos]

Originally Posted by rkmsuf

my dad said he didn't work hard enough on defense. And he says that lots of times, he didn't even run down court. And that he
didn't really try . . . except during the playoffs.

Are you the kid from 'Airplane!' ???

[rkmsuf]

Originally Posted by Neon_Chaos

Are you the kid from 'Airplane!' ???

He used to bust his buns dragging Walton and Lanier up and down the court for 48 minutes so I didn't agree with him.

[Neon_Chaos]

Originally Posted by rkmsuf

He used to bust his buns dragging Walton and Lanier up and down the court for 48 minutes so I didn't agree with him.

And I bet he's been hearing that crap since he was in UCLA.

[Kodos]

"They're trading for Shaq?! Surely, you must be kidding!"

[rkmsuf]

There's a trade going on? What is it?


That's when two teams decide to swap players or draft picks but that's not important right now.

[JonInMiddleGA]

On what planet does a Marion-for-Shaq trade make even the tiniest bit of sense?

[Anthony]

iio.

a small moon that revolves around Jupitor.

[MikeVic]

It doesn't even make sense on Europa.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

On what planet does a Marion-for-Shaq trade make even the tiniest bit of sense?

Billy Knight Planet.

[Vince]

This is just a retarded move...how can the Suns possibly think this is a good thing? Giving up Marion AND MORE (though I honestly have no idea how good Banks is) for an old, busted Shaq? Who obviously can't handle the Suns' typical game plan? What. The. Fuck.

[ThunderingHERD]

This is certainly the worst trade in basketball history, probably the worst trade in sports history, and possibly the worst decision of any kind ever.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by ThunderingHERD

This is certainly the worst trade in basketball history, probably the worst trade in sports history

Unless you're Miami

[Vince]

Did Shawn Marion die and no one told us? Does he have some degenerative disease that won't show up on a physical, and he's going to implode in like a month?

[Logan]

I totally agree with everyone here and everywhere else on the internet, but the stage has been set for Steve Kerr to give a giant finger to everyone while accepting the NBA trophy in a few months.

[Ajaxab]

The only possible justification Phoenix might (a big might) have for trading Marion would be getting something for him before he opts out in summer. But with that something being Shaq, I figure the Suns could have done better.

[Greyroofoo]

I hear Phoenix got a copy as part of the deal.

[cartman]

If this trade doesn't work, then Suns should trade for two Shaqs next time. If that doesn't work, then four. If eight Shaqs don't bring title, maybe NBA is not the game for you.

[Groundhog]

On the plus side, at least Suns fans won't have to suffer through Nash-to-Marion alley-oops anymore. I'm sure they were all sick of seeing those 8 times a game.

Shaq should really help them for those remaining 8 regular season games in which he'll be healthy too.

[Kodos]

Ugh. I like the Suns.

[Subby]

Probably worth pointing out that the Suns were a league office ass fucking away from making the Finals last season...

[Atocep]

Probably the best analysis of the trade I've seen so far.

http://www.basketballprospectus.com/...?articleid=136

Court Vision
Shaq to the Suns
by Bradford Doolittle

With the move of Shaquille O’Neal to Phoenix for Shawn Marion apparently only a doctor’s word away from fruition, a strange season in the tightly-packed Western Conference just got a whole lot goofier.

As teams jockey for position in a circuit ripe for the picking, GMs may be losing their heads. The Lakers’ Mitch Kupchak, savvy veteran of the front office wars that he is, took a logical risk in taking on Pau Gasol from Memphis. This was the first year of contention for this group of Lakers anyway and they had the Andrew Bynum injury with which to deal.

Kupchak didn’t have to break up his core to make his deal; bringing in Gasol merely rearranges his components. The chemistry might not work as well as L.A. hopes it will, but there is no denying that from a talent standpoint, the trade was a boost for the Lakers.

With the trade of Shaquille O’Neal to Phoenix for Shawn Marion, the Suns have become a brand-spanking-new team, a much older team, and a team facing a steep dropoff at some point within the next couple of years--a Miami-style tumble.

With the Suns and Lakers both having stepped up to the plate, the Mavericks now are at the dish. Dallas’ dilemma is more similar to that of Phoenix than L.A. With the Mavs already nearly $40 million over the cap, they will have to part with productive young talent to make any significant acquisition. Jason Kidd rumors have suggested that he would cost Dallas Devin Harris. Shaq-to-Dallas speculation said that Josh Howard would have been headed to Miami. The Kidd deal probably makes more sense, at least if you believe that that there is a significant difference in productivity between Harris and Kidd at this point in their careers--and that any difference favors Kidd. As much as it pains Mark Cuban to be an idle bystander, the Mavericks might be better off sitting out the current trade bazaar.

As for the Suns, their focus in making this deal was obviously short term. Steve Nash just turned 34, Raja Bell is 31 and Grant Hill is 35, and that’s three-fifths of the Suns’ starting lineup. I'm not sure, even taking into account the necessity of adopting a win-now stance, the Suns' team age justifies Steve Kerr’s thinking.

It’s true that Marion, for whatever reason, was not happy in Phoenix. Getting to run the floor, fire up threes and catch alley-oop passes from Nash must really suck. Marion apparently thinks basketball nirvana is shooting at will for a bad team.

(It’s not. I once thought that it was. Then I was on a really horrific intramural team for my fraternity at Mizzou. I don’t think anyone else had hardly ever picked up a basketball. We’d lose like 90-35, with me getting 30 of our points by shooting 12-for-50. It wasn’t as much fun as I thought it’d be.)

While Marion has been a little off his game from last season, he still rates as one of the 15 best players in the NBA. Whatever attitude problems he may have been having, it was not impacting the Suns’ ability to win games. Marion can opt out of his contract after the season, leaving more than $17 million on the table in the process. But that’s after the season.

In the meantime, the Suns could have kept a core group intact that was probably an Amare Stoudemire suspension away from winning the NBA title last season. Yes, there are some differences from last season’s roster. The loss of Kurt Thomas for cap reasons left Phoenix short of quality interior defenders. The Suns get absolutely killed by opposing centers, who have a collective 21 Player Efficiency Rating (PER) against Phoenix, according to 82games.com. That is a relatively small quibble, a little roster tweak that Kerr could have addressed in a much more low-key manner than by trading for one of the NBA’s preeminent characters.

In Kerr’s defense, the danger is that Marion ultimately walks after the season. Since Phoenix would still be slightly over the cap even with Marion’s contract off the books, the Suns would have to fill his spot with a mid-level exception and then would be stuck with a combination of that middling free agent and Boris Diaw at the four spot. Perhaps that was a risk Kerr wasn’t willing to take. Instead, he’s gambling that O’Neal, with two more years on his contract after this one, at $20 million per annum, will buy Phoenix an extra year at the top of the NBA ladder before a complete overhaul takes place in 2010.

Nevertheless, you have to think that the key motivation for Kerr is to maximize the Suns’ opportunity to win the title this season. So before making this trade, he had to ask: “Does this make us better now?”

Needless to say, the swap of Marion for O’Neal completely changes the dynamic of the Suns.

First, the notion should be dispelled that Shaq--if healthy--can no longer play. O’Neal is a shell of his former self. That shell is still an above-average NBA big man, and brings a defensive skill set that Phoenix lacked almost entirely. O’Neal is averaging 19.9 points and 10.9 rebounds per 40 minutes, and despite playing for a Miami team devoid of offensive options, he shot 58.1 percent from the field for the Heat. For players with at least 500 minutes played, O’Neal still has one of the top 15 foul-drawing rates in the game. He still blocks more than two shots per 40 minutes and, digging into my defensive numbers, opposing centers have operated at an efficiency rate of 96.8 percent of their typical output in their matchups with O’Neal: He’s still an above-average defender.

So Shaq can still play, but can he play in Phoenix’s system?

What the Suns have to hope for is that gains in their halfcourt offense can neutralize the losses in their transition game. Make no mistake about it: there will be a dropoff in Phoenix’s fast break attack. Marion is one of the fastest players in the league from baseline to baseline and the advantage he had in footspeed over opposing power forwards is not likely to be compensated for.

That’s not to say that the Suns’ fastbreak is dead. Stoudamire, who will shift to his natural position at the four, is no slouch at running the floor. He may not be able to consistently outrun teams with small-ball offenses, like Golden State, but for the most part, he’ll still be a plus for Phoenix in this aspect. O’Neal should give a modest boost to the Suns’ performance on the boards, as well, though Marion is a terrific rebounder in his own right. Still, if Phoenix is able to do a better job of controlling the defensive boards, that only enhances its ability to get into a fast break mode.

There is actually a long tradition of plodding centers functioning well on fast-break teams. The ’72 Lakers were the highest-scoring team in the league with 35-year-old Wilt Chamberlain averaging 42 minutes per game. Chamberlain shot less than 10 times per contest, content to lead the league in rebounding and start the L.A. break. The “Showtime” Lakers of the ‘80s featured an aging Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. So I’m not concerned about whether the Suns’ uptempo attack can still function with O’Neal in the middle.

I am concerned, however, about what happens to Phoenix’s dangerous halfcourt offense. Right now, the Suns generally spread the floor, with Nash controlling the ball up top and the two, three and four players planting themselves on the perimeter. Stoudamire sets the offense in motion with a high screen. Nash will either dish the ball to Stoudamire as he rolls to the basket or, if someone helps from the outside, he’ll dish to the open man for a three or a drive to the hoop or, if the defense sags off of Nash and tries to deny an entry pass to Stoudamire, Nash will simply pop a three-point shot with deadly accuracy. There’s more to it than that, but that’s the basic foundation.

Now, O’Neal will clog things up. He is far too slow afoot at this juncture of his career to run the high pick-and-roll, and when Nash runs the play with Stoudamire, O’Neal will have to clear out of the way. Of course, he’s not a candidate to shoot a jump shot, so when that happens, O’Neal will be effectively removed from the offense. Suddenly the mismatches for Phoenix’s outside shooters become harder to come by.

So Mike D’Antoni is going to have to reconfigure things a little bit, likely to his chagrin. O’Neal, a plodding brute of a center, doesn’t really fit into the European-style attack that D’Antoni favors. If he wants to maximize O’Neal on the defensive end, then perhaps he’ll have to use Leandro Barbosa even more time than he does now to give Phoenix another guy that can break down the defense. That weakens the Suns’ perimeter defense, which will already be hurting because of the switch from Marion to Stoudemire guarding opposing power forwards. Think Dirk Nowitzki is happy today?

Like I said, this trade changes the whole dynamic in Phoenix. Steve Kerr might have felt backed against a wall, with Marion’s desire to bail and the much-ballyhooed move of Gasol to L.A. However, if the only consideration for Kerr was winning this year, he probably would have been better off standing pat. None of this even addresses the concerns about O’Neal’s health, and that’s probably the biggest issue of all. If O’Neal is unable to stay on the court, then this trade turns out to be an absolute disaster for Phoenix.

The bottom line is that the Suns were probably the odds-on favorite to win the championship before this trade was made. They were far from an overwhelming favorite, but the favorite nonetheless. Now, who knows?

In the end, the trade changes the modus operandi of the Suns, both from the standpoint of their efficiencies on both ends of the court and their overall style of play. What they already had worked--they were on the cusp of beating the Spurs last season, and there is no reason they couldn’t go even further this season. Yes, they needed another interior defender to fill the Kurt Thomas role, but this is the answer? The Suns’ starting lineup now includes three players aged 34 or older. Their window for success just got a lot smaller.

As for the Heat…

This was a real coup for Pat Riley, who can suddenly reshape the woebegone Heat much faster than anyone could have hoped for. I, for one, thought that O’Neal’s albatross of a contract would be immovable this season and probably next season, as well. But now, with that money off the books, he has a half-season to audition Marion, and perhaps more if the mercurial forward likes what he sees in south Florida and exercises his option to play for Miami next year.

Meanwhile, Riley has a top-five lottery pick coming up and will be shedding Jason Williams, Ricky Davis and Alonzo Mourning from his payroll. He should be in a position to pursue some of the ample bounty in the next free-agent crop, and if Marion opts out, he may be able to fit in two impact talents. With a little craftiness and a lot of luck, next year’s Heat lineup could include a healthier Dwyane Wade, Marion, Michael Beasley and somebody like Jermaine O’Neal.

The long dark age that appeared to be descending over Miami may not come at all. How quickly things can change in a day.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by Subby

Great trade for the Suns. When Shaq is motivated and on a contending team and getting the fed the ball he steps it up. Suns weren't winning it all with Marion, so the change works.

Say what you will about Shaq, but he's been to the Finals six times. Give him a good supporting cast and I think he can still be special.

I agree to a point. The Suns were not going to win this season with the cast they had before the trade. Heck, a broken down Spurs team with no Parker or Barry came in and beat them in Phoenix last week. Here are the reasons I think it's a solid move:

1. Marion's ORPG had dropped from over 3 to around 1.8 in the past three seasons. His "trash points" had also decreased (which explains the decrease from 22 PPG to 15.8 ) and his 3s attempted per game were as high as ever (3.6 ). This shows that Marion was becoming less of the "Matrix" around the rim and more of a 3-point shooter (at 34%). His defense had also been seriously lacking from a night-to-night standpoint.

2. By most accounts, Marion and Banks were the two worst influences on the clubhouse. If the Suns can't win when they have a good clubhouse (04-05), how are they supposed to win with a couple of malcontents bringing everything down? It got so bad last week that two Phoenix media members said you could cut through the tension with a knife in the locker room after a win.

3. Building off 2, everyone always had to make sure they complimented Shawn and make sure his mind was right. I remember a game earlier in the season where Barbosa played great and Phoenix won on national TV. His first comments? "Shawn Marion played a great game." Marion didn't have a great statistical night and it's almost like Barbosa wanted to make sure he didn't sulk by giving him credit. It's hard enough to win when everyone is focused, let alone try and win when walking on egg shells around one of your teammates in fear of his confidence/ego level.

4. Shaq has still be shooting and rebounding at a very good rate (even though he's playing at a lower effort level for the Heat). To think that he won't even slightly improve that on the Suns is illogical. And, in 28 MPG, he's been getting 3 OREB, 1.7 BPG, 8 RPG, 14 points and shooting almost 60%. If Shaq can give 25 MPG at slightly higher production than the above in the postseason, he will do more for Phoenix than Marion ever did in the playoffs.

5. The Suns have one of the best training staff's in the league. Amare (post micro), Grant Hill, Steve Nash and Antonio McDyess were all looked on as damaged goods when they came to Phoenix and all had very good seasons after it.

6. Financially, if Marcus Banks, Marion and Shaq all finish out their contracts, it will end up costing the Suns a net $10 millon. Phoenix will break even the next two seasons and end up owing $10 million more than the Banks-Marion combo in the final year of Shaq's deal (and that's if they didn't extend/sign-and-trade marion). So, having a net -10 million 2-3 years down the road isn't a big price to make a run with Shaq now.

7. The move frees up Amare to be the PF he wants to be - not saddle him with bodying up against Duncan/Bynum/Boozer/Chandler/Yao and the other bigger centers he's been facing. Amare's also been in foul trouble in most of the series against SA because he tries to matchup with Duncan. Now, he can play the shotblocking/scoring role and let Shaq take the pounding in the postseason.

In the end, I'd bet that the Suns had probably a 25% chance to win it all this season, with a 60% chance to make it past the 2nd round with Marion/Banks. Now, I'd give them a 40% chance at a title, but only a 50% chance to get past the 2nd round because of the risks with Shaq's health. Still, this team has had enough "fruitless" deep playoff runs, so I am willing to risk a higher chance at losing early for a higher ceiling that could come with Shaq. Plus, they essentially get a 2-year window with Shaq. After this season, Marion probably would have opted out (or been traded anyway) and who knows what the Suns would have done then. I still think teams like SA, Detroit and even the Lakers have a better shot, but atleast now the Suns could be in the class of those teams (if Shaq comes back motivated and healthy by the postseason). With the normal Nash-Bell-Diaw-Marion-Amare crew, I couldn't see the Suns winning against LA/Utah and SA to even get to the finals.

[Groundhog]

Originally Posted by Arles

3. Building off 2, everyone always had to make sure they complimented Shawn and make sure his mind was right. I remember a game earlier in the season where Barbosa played great and Phoenix won on national TV. His first comments? "Shawn Marion played a great game." Marion didn't have a great statistical night and it's almost like Barbosa wanted to make sure he didn't sulk by giving him credit. It's hard enough to win when everyone is focused, let alone try and win when walking on egg shells around one of your teammates in fear of his confidence/ego level.

That's pure speculation though. Maybe Barbosa was generally impressed with Marion's off the ball stuff? Maybe not. But I don't know that everyone is walking on egg shells around him. He asked for a trade pre-season, didn't get it, and that's the last we've heard of it.

You could maybe assume that he'd been grumbling behind the scenes, but I haven't heard anyone say so, so it's speculation.

4. Shaq has still be shooting and rebounding at a very good rate (even though he's playing at a lower effort level for the Heat). To think that he won't even slightly improve that on the Suns is illogical. And, in 28 MPG, he's been getting 3 OREB, 1.7 BPG, 8 RPG, 14 points and shooting almost 60%. If Shaq can give 25 MPG at slightly higher production than the above in the postseason, he will do more for Phoenix than Marion ever did in the playoffs.

The problem is, can Shaq do that? I don't know that it's about effort anymore. I've seen a ton of Heat games this year (thanks once again, ESPN!), and he just doesn't have it anymore. He can't get off the ground and is often stopped with 1-on-1 defense as his little jump hooks have been terrible. He rebounds and blocks some shots by virtue of his still immense size, but he is a detriment on both ends of the floor enough to compensate.

5. The Suns have one of the best training staff's in the league. Amare (post micro), Grant Hill, Steve Nash and Antonio McDyess were all looked on as damaged goods when they came to Phoenix and all had very good seasons after it.

I doubt this will do much for Shaq. He's been out of shape for like a decade now, and I don't see anything that will change that in Phoenix, when it didn't happen elsewhere.

6. Financially, if Marcus Banks, Marion and Shaq all finish out their contracts, it will end up costing the Suns a net $10 millon. Phoenix will break even the next two seasons and end up owing $10 million more than the Banks-Marion combo in the final year of Shaq's deal (and that's if they didn't extend/sign-and-trade marion). So, having a net -10 million 2-3 years down the road isn't a big price to make a run with Shaq now.

This is fine if you believe Shaq makes you a contender right now. I don't think he's close to that level anymore.

7. The move frees up Amare to be the PF he wants to be - not saddle him with bodying up against Duncan/Bynum/Boozer/Chandler/Yao and the other bigger centers he's been facing. Amare's also been in foul trouble in most of the series against SA because he tries to matchup with Duncan. Now, he can play the shotblocking/scoring role and let Shaq take the pounding in the postseason.

It frees Amare up when Shaq is healthy, which hasn't been often and only figures to get worse due to his age and size.

In the end, I'd bet that the Suns had probably a 25% chance to win it all this season, with a 60% chance to make it past the 2nd round with Marion/Banks. Now, I'd give them a 40% chance at a title, but only a 50% chance to get past the 2nd round because of the risks with Shaq's health. Still, this team has had enough "fruitless" deep playoff runs, so I am willing to risk a higher chance at losing early for a higher ceiling that could come with Shaq. Plus, they essentially get a 2-year window with Shaq. After this season, Marion probably would have opted out (or been traded anyway) and who knows what the Suns would have done then. I still think teams like SA, Detroit and even the Lakers have a better shot, but atleast now the Suns could be in the class of those teams (if Shaq comes back motivated and healthy by the postseason). With the normal Nash-Bell-Diaw-Marion-Amare crew, I couldn't see the Suns winning against LA/Utah and SA to even get to the finals.

I feel it lowers them from a 33% to a 25%. The Suns have come up short with their pre-Shaq roster a few times, but if they don't have the suspensions and luck went there way, who knows? That roster had just as much chance of doing it this year as they did the previous two years IMO.

Now they move away from what was working pretty well for them, and what they were built to do, and as a result this changes their entire offense and defense.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Subby

Probably worth pointing out that the Suns were a league office ass fucking away from making the Finals last season...

Yup, and that team just got blowed the f___ up.

[Neon_Chaos]

Daily Dime from Marc Stein:

1. The Suns pulled the trigger because of Steve Nash far more than Pau Gasol.
Nash turns 34 on Thursday. There will be no alarm bells sounded in Phoenix to commemorate the occasion, since Nash has hushed every doubt about his durability by playing at an MVP level for the past three-plus seasons, but his bosses are realistic. They know that a team relying heavily on Nash and Grant Hill will only have a couple more cracks at the championship that has eluded this franchise for four decades.
"We've got a few years here," Suns president Steve Kerr acknowledged, "where we can really make a push."
So …
The trade might look like a direct reaction to the Lakers' grand theft of Gasol from Memphis, but the Suns knew long before that heist that defending the post and cutting down on the buckets of second-chance points they surrender have been their downfall in the playoffs. This decision was made largely because Phoenix decided that it could no longer wait to change a locker-room dynamic that Nash has openly questioned at times, especially when a morale-booster like Shaq suddenly became available.
Nash spoke in glowing terms of Shawn Marion after the deal was announced -- "I'm a big fan of Shawn's," he said -- and has never specifically mentioned names when lamenting the Suns' occasional dips in togetherness, effort and willingness to shoulder responsibility and blame. But knowledgeable sources say that the Suns' power brokers, feeding off Nash's growing frustration and exasperation, lost confidence in the group's ability to win it all without some sort of shake-up. They stopped believing that the Suns' pre-Shaq core could overcome the behind-the-scenes negativity that typically involved either Marion or Amare Stoudemire without trading one of them away.
Now that it's finally happened? The giddy Suns instantly gave off a vibe Wednesday that O'Neal's impact on team morale might be as big as anything he'll provide on the floor, even if he's the interior defensive force they've dreamed about. It's the sort of Shaq Effect that never would have been possible had Marion been moved in a more conservative swap for, say, Utah's Andrei Kirilenko, as the Suns and Jazz discussed early in the season.
"I just think we need a little lift," Nash conceded. "We probably can improve our chemistry. … At some point I think there needs to be a healthy balance between being excited and having a spirit about us and at the same time holding each other accountable. I don't think that balance, for the most part, has been [there]."
Said Kerr: "[O'Neal's] presence is magnetic and that is a big part of it."


2. Mike D'Antoni was the first Suns voter to push for the deal … and Kerr was actually the last one to sign off.
This will be recorded as Kerr's first big call since assuming control of the Suns' front office. He knows he's "on the line" with how it turns out.
"If it works, I'm a genius," Kerr said. "If it doesn't, I'm a moron, I guess."
Maybe that's why Kerr turned out to be the hardest to convince.
It was easy to assume that this deal was somewhat forced on D'Antoni, since welcoming Shaq would be saying goodbye to some of the speed and abandon that has defined the Suns since D'Antoni and Nash hooked up for the 2004-05 season. But Phoenix privately insists -- and Kerr alluded it to publicly as well -- that D'Antoni was actually ready to make the trade as soon as it was presented to him.
"Mike's eyes lit up," one source said of D'Antoni's initial reaction to the idea.
It appears that Kerr was the apprehensive one, having closely followed the loud skepticism all season about how much O'Neal has left. That's why he insisted that O'Neal subject himself to a lengthy evaluation Wednesday afternoon with the Suns' doctors and training staff before the deal went through, during which those experts convinced Kerr that they can indeed nurse Shaq back to a healthy place like they've maintained with Nash and Hill.
"I wasn't going to do this," Kerr said, "unless I felt really good about it from a medical standpoint."
Said D'Antoni: "The question mark was, 'Does he have any gas left in the tank?' And I think you guys have debated it now for 24 hours and come up with 'no.' And I think you're wrong.
"I do find it kind of funny … first we can't win without a big man and once we get a big man, now we can't win with a big man. I do think he's not going to come to Phoenix and lay an egg."


3. Financial concerns? The Suns will make money from Shaq's arrival.
Suns fans are still smarting from what happened in the summer, when Phoenix gave Seattle two future first-round picks to convince the Sonics to take on the salary of its only dependable defender in the post -- Kurt Thomas -- in order to reduce the club's luxury-tax bill.
Memories of that move are a big reason why so many executives and pundits around the league reacted with such skepticism when the rumblings of a Shaq-to-Phoenix deal began to spread Tuesday night. It was a reflex reaction to presume that Suns owner Robert Sarver would never sanction the acquisition of a thirtysomething 7-footer on the decline with two years and $40 million left on his contract after this season.
Yet we were all wrong. For starters, Sarver revealed that the talks between the teams originated at ownership level, stemming from conversations with Miami's Micky Arison.
There's also the not-so-small matter of the likely spike in the Suns' merchandise sales and TV ratings that comes with adding a player of Shaq's stature. Combined that with the fact that extending Marion's contract or trading him for someone else with a longer contract -- along with keeping Marcus Banks -- would have eventually cost Phoenix more than bringing O'Neal in and you can understand Sarver's glee.
"This is money in the bank," one rival executive suggests.


4. The Suns love that so many outsiders are down on the trade.
Or so they claim.
Kerr, in particular, couldn't wait to share the story about a meeting Wednesday with D'Antoni and other Suns staffers during which O'Neal pointed up at a nearby TV that flashed some unflattering results from an ESPN.com poll.
Kerr quoted Shaq as saying: "Seventy-one percent of people in America apparently think this is a bad deal. That makes me angry. And I play better when I'm angry."
D'Antoni drew laughs with his follow-up wish that the poll figure soon rises to 80 percent, but you can understand why he was only half-kidding. O'Neal has missed 14 games already this season with a hip problem that is likely to delay his debut in a Suns uniform until next week at the earliest. As he intimated with his "egg" comment above, D'Antoni and Co. are naturally hoping that the scores of naysayers nationwide will get Shaq into I'll-Show-You condition.
The Suns are confident that O'Neal will be a mentor to Stoudemire, whom he's known since Amare was 13. They know Shaq would dearly love to win a fifth ring … and just getting out of the West would establish O'Neal as the first player in league history to take four different teams to the NBA Finals.
But they know they can't be sure that he can find an offensive niche … or that he'll be able to stay out of foul trouble when the Suns absorb their usual punishment on guard penetrations … or that his body will cooperate with his 36th birthday just a month away.
"If you look at all the areas we're not good at, [O'Neal] adds a lot to those areas," Nash said. "He's an experienced champion. He's got the size we've always lacked. He can defend the post and rebound and block shots.
"I think, deep down, there's probably [Suns players] who have doubts. All of us are trying to figure this out together. … [But] I just think that [O'Neal is] a winner. I think he's got a lot of pride and I think he likes to show people what he can [still] do."


5. The Suns will nonetheless miss Marion more than they think.
My original reason for coming to Phoenix this week was seeing Chris Paul and Nash duel. I was barely able to take in a dribble Wednesday night because of all the Shaq-related hoopla, but it didn't escape my attention that the Suns tied an unwanted club record with only one steal in their epic 132-130 loss to New Orleans in double overtime.
That's one steal in 58 minutes.
Maybe Marion was indeed a locker-room handful because of his persistent belief that he was underappreciated. Maybe rooting out his unhappiness and the unneeded tension it created will be addition by subtraction for the Suns, even if it takes Shaq some time to make an on-court impact.
Yet what you can't deny is that Marion was the only Sun who could guard all five positions … and that the Suns don't appear to have a perimeter defender who can comfortably replace him … and that Phoenix seemingly had some pretty decent chemistry where it matters most. On the floor.
So we're about to find out if Marion is as critical to the Suns' success as he's been claiming (in vain, he'd argue) for all these years.
"Shawn is fantastic [defensively with] the different players he can cover and the amount of court he can cover with his quickness and athleticism," Nash said.
"There's no doubt that the jury's out. We'll see how this works. But it's pretty tough to pass up on a player like Shaq."

[RomaGoth]

I am not a big NBA fan, but I believe it was an ok deal for Phoenix. Not a great deal, just an ok deal. Shaq is way past his prime (as everyone else says too), but Phoenix has yet to win with what they have been doing. Perhaps Shaq can come in and play 10 minutes a night and help rebound and block shots? A major concern here is his ego. Will he be happy with a 5th or 6th man role on this team? If so, it could be a good deal for the Suns. If not, well then look out. It is never a good idea to piss off a 7' behemoth. Ever.

[rkmsuf]

10 minutes a night? You weren't kidding when you said you weren't a big NBA fan.

[RomaGoth]

Originally Posted by rkmsuf

10 minutes a night? You weren't kidding when you said you weren't a big NBA fan.

Ok, Ok.

11 minutes a night. Anymore than that and Shaq Fu will go into cardiac arrest or something.....

[Brian Swartz]

1. Marion's ORPG had dropped from over 3 to around 1.8 in the past three seasons. His "trash points" had also decreased (which explains the decrease from 22 PPG to 15.8 ) and his 3s attempted per game were as high as ever (3.6 ). This shows that Marion was becoming less of the "Matrix" around the rim and more of a 3-point shooter (at 34%). His defense had also been seriously lacking from a night-to-night standpoint.

Disagree here. If the Matrix is no longer being the Matrix, then we'd see significant dropoff in his defensive rebounding, steals, etc. wouldn't we? But we don't. His offensive rebounding and free-throw shooting are off. However on the other side of the coin, that is only a small part of his scoring decrease. He is taking less shots and being more efficient overall(his shooting % is slightly HIGHER than it has ever been despite taking more 3s than he ever has -- his 2-point accuracy is at 59.9%, the highest it has ever been in his career). His assists are also up, he's committing fewer turnovers than ever, his steal rate is higher than it's ever been, his blocks have never been higher except during the year Amare was out, and his defensive rebounding is also higher than it's ever been.

If that's a guy that's slacking on the defensive end, I want a whole team of slackers. In fact, I think his stats to this point in the season suggest he's as valuable to the Suns as he's ever been. They suggest he's accepted his role, even if he doesn't like it.

4. Shaq has still be shooting and rebounding at a very good rate (even though he's playing at a lower effort level for the Heat). To think that he won't even slightly improve that on the Suns is illogical. And, in 28 MPG, he's been getting 3 OREB, 1.7 BPG, 8 RPG, 14 points and shooting almost 60%. If Shaq can give 25 MPG at slightly higher production than the above in the postseason, he will do more for Phoenix than Marion ever did in the playoffs.

Several things wrong with this. First of all, the whole dynamic is changed for Phoenix now. It isn't the case of a zero-sum world where you simply add or subtract a player's production. Their whole offense has to change. You can't run that high pick-and-roll with Stoudemire and Nash like you did, because where is Shaq at? No matter where he is, his defender will be in the lane. The Suns shooters automatically become less effective anytime Shaq is on the floor because they won't get open as much, as there's one less guy to worry about on the perimeter. Assuming Shaq is in the post, it greatly limit's Nash's ability to create, drive and kick, etc.

On defense, opposing teams will be able to get penetration almost at will against whomever Raja Bell isn't guarding. Stoudemire and Shaq will have tremendous pressure on them to help and yet avoid foul trouble, something Amare isn't known for being good at. Therefore the impact of him not having to guard Duncan etc. is significantly mitigated. This is not an impact that even approaches what Marion did for the Suns.

All this of course assumes the Suns' staff are miracle workers and the man stays healthy and is comfortable being, at best, the team's third or fourth option.

[SnDvls]

so here's something funny about the Shaq deal.

The original game between Atlanta & Miami ended with a disputed foul on guess who? Shaq. So they are replaying the last whatever time to get a correct ending to that game prior to playing their new game on like Feb 18th. Well now Shaq won't even be there so does Marion get to "sub" into the old game even though he wasn't on the team when the original game took place?

I have to think this is a first where a player started a game with one team, but by the time it "officially" ended was on another.

just a funny little gem with this trade.

[Logan]

Good call. I remember people on here asking what would happen if either team made a trade in between the two "games."

[Arles]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Disagree here. If the Matrix is no longer being the Matrix, then we'd see significant dropoff in his defensive rebounding, steals, etc. wouldn't we?

My statement was: "This shows that Marion was becoming less of the "Matrix" around the rim and more of a 3-point shooter." He is still solid on the defensive boards and getting steals/blocks, he's just not what he was on the offensive end a few years back. The reasons seems to be the fact that he prefers to hang out around the 3-point line in the half-court - not get up close for offensive boards. If you discount his transition points, he's much more of a 15-25 foot jumpshooter and less of a slasher. That's why, offensively, Grant Hill and Diaw can more than make up for his production.

But we don't. His offensive rebounding and free-throw shooting are off. However on the other side of the coin, that is only a small part of his scoring decrease. He is taking less shots and being more efficient overall(his shooting % is slightly HIGHER than it has ever been despite taking more 3s than he ever has -- his 2-point accuracy is at 59.9%, the highest it has ever been in his career).

When Marion was at his best, he used to take a ton of 5-15 foot "runners" on the baseline or in the lane during the halfcourt offense. He also used to get 3-4 offensive putbacks a night. Now, he either gets a dunk/layup on transition or shoots an 18+ footer. He's basically useless in a halfcourt set because he doesn't hit the offensive boards or slash to the basket. He's also assisted on almost 90% of his shots which shows he has no ability to create either.

His assists are also up, he's committing fewer turnovers than ever, his steal rate is higher than it's ever been, his blocks have never been higher except during the year Amare was out, and his defensive rebounding is also higher than it's ever been.

If that's a guy that's slacking on the defensive end, I want a whole team of slackers. n fact, I think his stats to this point in the season suggest he's as valuable to the Suns as he's ever been. They suggest he's accepted his role, even if he doesn't like it.

Marion's been a solid guy on the boards and filled up a stats sheet, but his on-the-ball defending has been much worse than last season. Maybe it's his attitude, but he's been lit-up by guys like Marvin Williams, Richard Jefferson, Redd, Odom and others - and this is just since Jan 15th. Heck, Sam Cassell put up 32 against him three weeks ago. It got so bad against Cleveland that the team moved him off Lebron (17 points in quarter 1) and put him on Hughes. Hughes went on to have 25 points for game!

This season, you were getting a good on-the-ball effort from Marion about once a week - and even those games were "average" for what he brought the past two seasons. Again, some in the media stated he was becoming a malcontent and upset that he always had to guard top scorer yet didn't get the plays on offense (plus the fact Phoenix wouldn't get him an extension). Whatever the reason, Marion's production to this point shouldn't be too tough to replace. Now, the Marion of 04-07 would have been difficult to replace on the defensive end, but that just wasn't the case so far this year.

Several things wrong with this. First of all, the whole dynamic is changed for Phoenix now. It isn't the case of a zero-sum world where you simply add or subtract a player's production. Their whole offense has to change. You can't run that high pick-and-roll with Stoudemire and Nash like you did, because where is Shaq at? No matter where he is, his defender will be in the lane. The Suns shooters automatically become less effective anytime Shaq is on the floor because they won't get open as much, as there's one less guy to worry about on the perimeter.

I don't even know where to begin here. You are essentially stating that because Shaq is on the team, the Suns will get worse shots in the half court? That makes no sense. Right now, teams may "soft double" Amare and guard the 3-line pretty tight. Usually the guy on Marion sags in to help against Nash anyway as he's only a 32-34% 3-shooter (compared to guys like Bell, Nash and Barbosa). Now, you will have Shaq at the low post, amare at the high post and 3 shooter spread out. If you single cover either Amare or Shaq, they will probably get a fairly easy bucket. If you double them, either Nash, Bell or Barbosa will be wide open from 3 or Hill will be wide open from 17-feet.

Because of Shaq, guys like Raja Bell and Barbosa will have wide open 3s in the half court. Right now, it takes great ball movement for those guys to get open shots because teams can just spy Amare and single up everyone on the perimeter. With Shaq, the guy on Raja will have to double down and Shaq (who is one of the better passing bigmen) will kick it out for some open shots. Just ask James Posey, Eddie Jones and Robert Horry how that works.

As to the transition, the Suns don't run a "5-man" fast break. In fact, Amare often had to stay back and hit the boards because he was guarding a center. Now, Amare can run the break with Nash, Bell, Hill, Barbosa and others. Shaq will be the guy battling with Duncan and Boozer for the boards while the others can start the break.

Assuming Shaq is in the post, it greatly limit's Nash's ability to create, drive and kick, etc.

So, right now Nash usually has to go through one "on-ball" guy and everyone else playing a sagging man to help. That's much easier than a setup where 2 guys are on Shaq and one on Amare and another helping on the wings? Nash will have all the open 7-15 footers he desires because half the defense will be on the blocks guarding Amare and Shaq.

On defense, opposing teams will be able to get penetration almost at will against whomever Raja Bell isn't guarding.

and that's not the case now? The difference is the Suns will have Shaq clogging up the lane and Amare around to block shots. Right now, if you get beat on the perimeter, it's probably a layup unless someone takes a charge. I doubt you will see too many uncontested layups with Shaq in and Amare helping.

Stoudemire and Shaq will have tremendous pressure on them to help and yet avoid foul trouble, something Amare isn't known for being good at. Therefore the impact of him not having to guard Duncan etc. is significantly mitigated. This is not an impact that even approaches what Marion did for the Suns.

This also doesn't make sense. Amare struggled to stay out of foul trouble against the big post players like Duncan, Boozer, Bynum, Al Jefferson and Chandler. So, now because Shaq comes in and says "I got that guy Amare, you go guard a much less effective offensive big man (ie, Oberto)" - Amare is going to be in MORE foul trouble? Right now, Amare has a ton of pressure to help, body up a big center and avoid foul trouble. You throw Shaq in there and he will be facing a much easier defensive assignment for him (assuming you agree that Oberto is an easier assignment than Duncan) and less pressure to always be manning the paint against drives. The presence of Shaq alone will discourage a lot of layup attempts.

All this of course assumes the Suns' staff are miracle workers and the man stays healthy and is comfortable being, at best, the team's third or fourth option.

I agree that Shaq needs to stay healthy. He's already stated he's content with the role he has and I doubt he would have come to Phoenix and said what he has if he felt he needed 15 shots a game. Even Amare doesn't get that many shots.

it's a gamble, but no moreso than going with the Nash-Marion-Amare group that has fizzled out in the postseason every year. Add in how ineffective Marion has been as an on-the-ball defender and his "malcontent" attitude (this was stated by 3 ESPN writers and 2 local Phoenix guys) and I don't see anyway that Phoenix wins a championship with that group. You add in Shaq and they have a chance if he's motivated and healthy. I'd rather have a chance at a championship with some risk than be guaranteed a 2nd or 3rd round exit by standing pat.

[Brian Swartz]

He is still solid on the defensive boards and getting steals/blocks, he's just not what he was on the offensive end a few years back. The reasons seems to be the fact that he prefers to hang out around the 3-point line in the half-court - not get up close for offensive boards. If you discount his transition points, he's much more of a 15-25 foot jumpshooter and less of a slasher. That's why, offensively, Grant Hill and Diaw can more than make up for his production.

Marion was never much of a threat in the half-court, comparatively speaking, so I can agree with this -- a lot of guys can replace him in the half-court offense. It's the weakest part of his game.

When Marion was at his best, he used to take a ton of 5-15 foot "runners" on the baseline or in the lane during the halfcourt offense. He also used to get 3-4 offensive putbacks a night. Now, he either gets a dunk/layup on transition or shoots an 18+ footer. He's basically useless in a halfcourt set because he doesn't hit the offensive boards or slash to the basket. He's also assisted on almost 90% of his shots which shows he has no ability to create either.

Right. So he's become a more efficient player and therefore become worse on a team with plenty of other scoring options on the floor at any one time that almost never lacks for quality shots. Huh? I just don't get that. Marion's half-court game offensively is the last thing you should look at to evaluate him. He's a finisher, defender, and rebounder. That's what's important.

Marion's been a solid guy on the boards and filled up a stats sheet, but his on-the-ball defending has been much worse than last season. Maybe it's his attitude, but he's been lit-up by guys like Marvin Williams, Richard Jefferson, Redd, Odom and others - and this is just since Jan 15th. Heck, Sam Cassell put up 32 against him three weeks ago. It got so bad against Cleveland that the team moved him off Lebron (17 points in quarter 1) and put him on Hughes. Hughes went on to have 25 points for game!

This season, you were getting a good on-the-ball effort from Marion about once a week - and even those games were "average" for what he brought the past two seasons. Again, some in the media stated he was becoming a malcontent and upset that he always had to guard top scorer yet didn't get the plays on offense (plus the fact Phoenix wouldn't get him an extension). Whatever the reason, Marion's production to this point shouldn't be too tough to replace. Now, the Marion of 04-07 would have been difficult to replace on the defensive end, but that just wasn't the case so far this year.

The facts just don't back this up. Phoenix has made no significant acquisitions in terms of beefing up their perimeter defense. And it hasn't suffered ... it's IMPROVED. They are holding opponents to a lower shooting %, and a significantly lower one from three-point range(33% compared to 36% last year). You don't do that by having a key perimeter defender go in the tank. If there was a significant dropoff from him, you'd see it in the way teams are scoring against Phoenix.

The Suns problem this year compared to last is simple: rebounding. They've gone from being a poor rebounding team to being the worst in the league(only Golden State is even close). And it's on both ends. Not hard to figure out why -- Kurt Thomas. Stoudemire and Marion are both down in the offensive rebound department, and by the same amount, Amare is basically the same defensive rebounding as he was, with Marion up a little. Thomas is the difference. Yes Shaq will help with this and they'll be better there. But at what cost, and I'll get to that momentarily.

Because of Shaq, guys like Raja Bell and Barbosa will have wide open 3s in the half court. Right now, it takes great ball movement for those guys to get open shots because teams can just spy Amare and single up everyone on the perimeter. With Shaq, the guy on Raja will have to double down and Shaq (who is one of the better passing bigmen) will kick it out for some open shots. Just ask James Posey, Eddie Jones and Robert Horry how that works.

As to the transition, the Suns don't run a "5-man" fast break. In fact, Amare often had to stay back and hit the boards because he was guarding a center. Now, Amare can run the break with Nash, Bell, Hill, Barbosa and others. Shaq will be the guy battling with Duncan and Boozer for the boards while the others can start the break.

Posey, Jones, and Horry work in vastly different offenses. I've been assuming here that D'Antoni's international-style attack remains in vogue. Because if it doesn't, then you are then faced with the situation of a new offense that Nash, Stoudemire, and everybody else isn't used to playing, a more traditional-style offense involving pounding the ball inside. Aside from the need to acclimate to Shaq, everybody needs to gel at a high level in a new offense, and they have 30 games in which to do this. Am I the only one who thinks that's totally absurd, particularly given that it isn't a style that the coach knows as well?

If they do that, they don't have the problems I mentioned, but they do have entirely new ones that are even worse. I can't think of a single time when this kind of change in style happened at a similar point in the year and was successful. Please inform me if I'm wrong. Either way though, you take away some of the effect of the penetration of Nash and Barbosa, penetration being obviously more effective with an open lane than one with defenders in it.

The other thing is, teams already have the Amare problem. The only way Shaq helps free up more perimeter shooters in the post is if he's a bigger post threat than Stoudemire. I challenge the man to step forward who believes that at this stage of the Diesel's career.

and that's not the case now? The difference is the Suns will have Shaq clogging up the lane and Amare around to block shots. Right now, if you get beat on the perimeter, it's probably a layup unless someone takes a charge. I doubt you will see too many uncontested layups with Shaq in and Amare helping.

Clearly it's worse to have one good perimeter defender than two(with Marion), in terms of stopping penetration. I think that should be pretty basic.

This also doesn't make sense. Amare struggled to stay out of foul trouble against the big post players like Duncan, Boozer, Bynum, Al Jefferson and Chandler. So, now because Shaq comes in and says "I got that guy Amare, you go guard a much less effective offensive big man (ie, Oberto)" - Amare is going to be in MORE foul trouble? Right now, Amare has a ton of pressure to help, body up a big center and avoid foul trouble. You throw Shaq in there and he will be facing a much easier defensive assignment for him (assuming you agree that Oberto is an easier assignment than Duncan) and less pressure to always be manning the paint against drives. The presence of Shaq alone will discourage a lot of layup attempts.

No, he won't be in more foul trouble. I didn't say that. I said the effect of Shaq taking the big men(which will help Amare defensively) is mitigated. Not eliminated. Shaq is going to be a 25-minute guy, not a 40-minute guy, which means Amare is still going to take some of the duties anyway. And a lot of his fouls have come not from guarding the big men, but from helping out on drives. Shaq will discourage some of those, but he no longer has the mobility to be a major force defensively on a consistent basis. Having him in the middle didn't stop Miami's lack of perimeter defense from being a fatal weakness the last couple years, and it won't do so here either.

[Neon_Chaos]

Greydog vs. Wolverine!

I love it.

[Groundhog]

Originally Posted by Neon_Chaos

Greydog vs. Wolverine!

I love it.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Marion was never much of a threat in the half-court, comparatively speaking, so I can agree with this -- a lot of guys can replace him in the half-court offense. It's the weakest part of his game.

Right. So he's become a more efficient player and therefore become worse on a team with plenty of other scoring options on the floor at any one time that almost never lacks for quality shots. Huh? I just don't get that. Marion's half-court game offensively is the last thing you should look at to evaluate him. He's a finisher, defender, and rebounder. That's what's important.

So, the goal is to win in the playoffs, right? Yet, we should completely discount Marion's half court ability when the biggest games in which the Suns will need him will be in a more "half court paced" playoff series. Marion has always been a nice 1st to 3rd quarter regular season scorer. When he can get out and run with little defensive pressure, he does a nice job. So, when over half his shots are close to the hoop on transition, I would hope his FG% is pretty high. The problem is that when the postseason comes around, he disappears for games on end because he doesn't get the 10-12 transition points and is forced to score in the halfcourt.

The facts just don't back this up. Phoenix has made no significant acquisitions in terms of beefing up their perimeter defense. And it hasn't suffered ... it's IMPROVED. They are holding opponents to a lower shooting %, and a significantly lower one from three-point range(33% compared to 36% last year). You don't do that by having a key perimeter defender go in the tank. If there was a significant dropoff from him, you'd see it in the way teams are scoring against Phoenix.

First, Grant Hill has been pleasant surprise as a perimeter defender so far. What has killed the Suns in the past has been points by post players, not a great shooting % by guards and small forwards. What the Suns have been able to count on is Marion keeping top scoring players at bay and having them work more for points. This season, he just hasn't been doing that. Still, what has hurt the Suns this season has been the offensive rebounding of other teams. And, the Suns will more than make up in that area by trading Marion's minutes for Shaq + Diaw (and getting more time to Skinner), with Hill taking up Marion's role as perimeter defender.

The Suns problem this year compared to last is simple: rebounding. They've gone from being a poor rebounding team to being the worst in the league(only Golden State is even close). And it's on both ends. Not hard to figure out why -- Kurt Thomas. Stoudemire and Marion are both down in the offensive rebound department, and by the same amount, Amare is basically the same defensive rebounding as he was, with Marion up a little. Thomas is the difference. Yes Shaq will help with this and they'll be better there. But at what cost, and I'll get to that momentarily.

I agree it's pretty easy to see why the Suns aren't rebounding - they are primarily playing 3 guards (Nash, Bell, Barbosa) and 4 forwards (Hill, Marion, Amare, Diaw). So, there's no one to get out the big bodies on both ends of the court. By switching to a more conventional offense, the Suns can get 35-40 min a game to Shaq+Skinner and help neutralize the size advantage on the boards. So, instead of having Amare on a true center and Marion on a PF, Phoenix can go with Shaq/Skinner on the center and Amare on the PF, with Hill able to help Raja on the perimeter. Plus, they can still "go small" and sub in Diaw for Shaq.

Posey, Jones, and Horry work in vastly different offenses. I've been assuming here that D'Antoni's international-style attack remains in vogue. Because if it doesn't, then you are then faced with the situation of a new offense that Nash, Stoudemire, and everybody else isn't used to playing, a more traditional-style offense involving pounding the ball inside. Aside from the need to acclimate to Shaq, everybody needs to gel at a high level in a new offense, and they have 30 games in which to do this. Am I the only one who thinks that's totally absurd, particularly given that it isn't a style that the coach knows as well?

The Suns are going to be playing in a somewhat different offensive scheme when Shaq is on the floor. It's not unlike last season when they had Kurt Thomas, the only difference is that Shaq will be a much more potent offensive threat around the basket and take more attention than Thomas did. When Shaq sits, they will still have a similar attack as now, but their half court offense will be different with Shaq in the game. And, IMO, that's a good thing as the Phoenix half court attack was the weak point of the team.

If they do that, they don't have the problems I mentioned, but they do have entirely new ones that are even worse. I can't think of a single time when this kind of change in style happened at a similar point in the year and was successful. Please inform me if I'm wrong. Either way though, you take away some of the effect of the penetration of Nash and Barbosa, penetration being obviously more effective with an open lane than one with defenders in it.

What the Suns are doing is allowing themselves to have a high % offense to count on in the fourth quarter/playoffs. For much of the first 3 quarters, they will be running the same offense now with Shaq simply replacing Amare as the outlet guy and Amare/Hill taking the Marion role on running the fast break. However, when possessions become more valuable late in the game, they will have a high and low post threat to pull the defense in and leave more open shots at the 3 for Bell, Nash and Barbosa. They also will be able to get higher% inside chances for Shaq and have fewer doubles on Amare.

The mistake you are making is thinking that now the Suns are going to go from running 90% of the game to running 10% of the game and going to a slow half-court offense the rest. Shaq, at best, will play 20-25 minutes a game until the postseason. So, between the 25 minutes he's not on the court and the 10-15 minutes he plays in the first 3 quarters, the Suns will still be running. It's no different than what the Suns did with Kurt Thomas last year. The main difference is that in the final 5-10 minutes or the slower postseason games, the Suns will (for the first time in years) have an actual half court offense that can get a high% shot without Nash running circles around the basket like the energizer bunny until a teammate got a little space.

The other thing is, teams already have the Amare problem. The only way Shaq helps free up more perimeter shooters in the post is if he's a bigger post threat than Stoudemire. I challenge the man to step forward who believes that at this stage of the Diesel's career.

This makes no sense. Shaq and Amare are not going to rotate, they are going to play together for much of the game. So, it's not whether Amare is a better post threat than Shaq, it's whether Shawn Marion a better post threat than Shaq. And, to quote you, I challenge the man to step forward who believes that.

You are going to have possessions late in the game with Amare on the high post (for the screen and roll) and Shaq getting attention on the low block. That means that you will probably have 3 defenders on those 2 guys, leaving only 2 to handle Nash, Bell/Barbosa and Grant Hill/Diaw. That should free up a lot of space for the Phoenix shooters. Right now, the only way to make space is to spread the floor with Amare in the middle and hope Nash can break the opponent down to create a little space for one of the shooters. Not only is that extremely tiring for Nash (which is why his turnovers have gone up in the fourth quarter), but it's a very stagnant offense.

Another benefit of Shaq is the level of pressure on Nash to always create offense is reduced. Before Shaq, you would have 3 guys out there (Amare, Marion and Bell) that needed someone to create a shot for them. That meant Nash had to have the ball a ton and always move to create space. Now, with the Diesel in the post, space will be there by default as teams sag on him. So, Nash can go for 5-6 minutes stretches in the half court where he is more of a shooter than creater and let Amare and Shaq work off each other (either to score or kick out) to create chances.

Clearly it's worse to have one good perimeter defender than two(with Marion), in terms of stopping penetration. I think that should be pretty basic.

The problem is that Marion has not been at the level of stopping penetration that he was the past two seasons. Plus, I would say it's much better to have two stoppers in the post (Shaq and Amare) over one undersized stopper and one slightly better perimeter defender. You are always going to have atleast one poor perimeter defender (Nash on PHX, Parker on SA, ..) and having that one guy who can discourage layups or block shots is very valuable. Because Amare didn't have the size to handle bodying up a Duncan or Yao and still protect the paint, the Suns lacked that this season. It's also why Phoenix gave up so many offensive rebounds.

No, he won't be in more foul trouble. I didn't say that. I said the effect of Shaq taking the big men(which will help Amare defensively) is mitigated. Not eliminated. Shaq is going to be a 25-minute guy, not a 40-minute guy, which means Amare is still going to take some of the duties anyway. And a lot of his fouls have come not from guarding the big men, but from helping out on drives.

Right now, Amare is the only true post defender on the team (outside of Skinner, who gets 10-15 MPG). That means he has to both guard the top post scorer and help on drives. Doing both for 35 to 40 minutes is why he gets in foul trouble. By freeing him up to simply help, his fouls will go down - as will the wear and tear on his body making him more fresh on the offensive end later in games.

Shaq will discourage some of those, but he no longer has the mobility to be a major force defensively on a consistent basis. Having him in the middle didn't stop Miami's lack of perimeter defense from being a fatal weakness the last couple years, and it won't do so here either.

The threat of Shaq in the middle will do more to stop the easy layups than anything Marion did. The Suns don't need Shaq to block 5 shots a game, hold opponent big men to a bad percentage and "own" on the defensive end. He just needs to body up the opposing post scorer, free up Amare to play more "help" than "body" defense and discourage opponents getting a ton of offensive rebounds. I think that's a fair expectation.

In the end, it comes down to whether you think the Suns on Feb 1 were good enough to win a championship. If you think so, then maybe this isn't a good trade. If, however, you don't think their undersized setup will win against good teams in the postseason (as I did after seeing them play for 3 months), then you needed to do something to mix it up. Now, maybe Shaq isn't the right guy and doesn't have anything left in the tank - that may be. But, I content that keeping Marion and Amare at the 4/5 was a guarantee to lose in the postseason. With Shaq, you have a better chance at winning it all, with additional risks of losing earlier. So, I would have made the move.

[rkmsuf]

I was hoping for the unabridged version.

[MikeVic]

Yeah that's too much text.

[stevew]

My eyes burn.

[Karlifornia]

God I hope this isn't the Chris Webber we're getting for the rest of the season. If it is, I'd rather them get DJ Mbenga back.

[Brian Swartz]

So, when over half his shots are close to the hoop on transition, I would hope his FG% is pretty high. The problem is that when the postseason comes around, he disappears for games on end because he doesn't get the 10-12 transition points and is forced to score in the halfcourt.

First off, I appreciate your reasonableness in discussing this. Secondly, this is another case where the facts simply don't fit your theory.

Shawn Marion PPG Regular Season/Playoffs

1999: 10.2/9.1
2000: 17.3/14.8
2002: 21.2/18.5
2004: 19.4/17.6
2005: 21.8/20.4
2006: 17.5/16.9

I notice two things here. One, given the slower pace of the playoffs as you mentioned, the difference here is pretty small. Secondly, that it is shrinking, with almost no difference the last couple of years, espescially last year, between regular-season and playoff scoring. It's also worth nothing that his rebounds and some other numbers went UP in the playoffs compared to the regular season the last couple years. How is that a picture of a player less effective in the playoffs?

The Suns are going to be playing in a somewhat different offensive scheme when Shaq is on the floor. It's not unlike last season when they had Kurt Thomas, the only difference is that Shaq will be a much more potent offensive threat around the basket and take more attention than Thomas did. When Shaq sits, they will still have a similar attack as now, but their half court offense will be different with Shaq in the game. And, IMO, that's a good thing as the Phoenix half court attack was the weak point of the team.

Actually it's quite a lot different than Kurt Thomas, because Thomas had an excellent mid-range game and wasn't a post-up player. Therefore he played a more similar role to what Grant Hill does now than he it was similar to what Shaq is capable of doing. And most importantly of course, he didn't clog up the lane versus the high pick and rolls with Nash and Stoudemire. That's what I'm saying: THAT kind of offense is one the Suns have never used.

The main difference is that in the final 5-10 minutes or the slower postseason games, the Suns will (for the first time in years) have an actual half court offense that can get a high% shot without Nash running circles around the basket like the energizer bunny until a teammate got a little space.

This makes no sense. Shaq and Amare are not going to rotate, they are going to play together for much of the game. So, it's not whether Amare is a better post threat than Shaq, it's whether Shawn Marion a better post threat than Shaq. And, to quote you, I challenge the man to step forward who believes that.

No, the point is that the Suns already had a post threat in Amare. He's proven he can score against pretty much anybody inside(he's torched the Spurs the last two times they've played in the post-season). So it simply isn't the case that Phoenix had no way to get good shots late in games -- they repeatedly did. Having Shaq doesn't improve that likelihood unless teams are more scared of him than they are of Amare. Which isn't going to happen.

[Anthony]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

No, the point is that the Suns already had a post threat in Amare. He's proven he can score against pretty much anybody inside(he's torched the Spurs the last two times they've played in the post-season). So it simply isn't the case that Phoenix had no way to get good shots late in games -- they repeatedly did. Having Shaq doesn't improve that likelihood unless teams are more scared of him than they are of Amare. Which isn't going to happen.

one low post threat - you can double team that.

two low post threats? good luck.


otherwise i see valid points in both your views. at this point it's just a matter of seeing the product on the floor to put the speculation to rest.