College Football Week 12 Thread

[VPI97]

Originally Posted by k0ruptr

The main problem I have is , Hawaii wins, USC doesnt play, therefore that equals USC jumping us? yea that makes a ton of sense.

USC sitting at home watching TV was more impressive than Hawaii needing a last second kick to beat a bad Nevada team. It makes perfect sense.

[k0ruptr]

lol.

[k0ruptr]

If Hawaii beats boise St. they should drop a few more spots too then i guess, maybe to around 20 or so.

[Celeval]

Originally Posted by k0ruptr

The main problem I have is , Hawaii wins, USC doesnt play, therefore that equals USC jumping us? yea that makes a ton of sense.

I never get this argument. How does it matter? A win is better than a loss, sure, but if you win and don't look better than USC doing it; then why shouldn't it be adjusted? I had the same problem with the Michigan/Florida arguments last season - just because you don't play doesn't mean the opinion of where you stand relative to other teams doesn't change.

[Buccaneer]

I've been out to the islands several times and I can attest to how it makes a brain goes mushy.

[timmynausea]

Here are the new BCS rankings:

http://cfn.scout.com/a.z?s=451&p=2&c=557949

1. LSU
2. Kansas
3. West Virginia
4. Missouri
5. Ohio State

[TazFTW]

Hawaii jumped Virginia and Clemson but were jumped by BC. Considering BC beat Clemson and Virginia had a bye, I'll take moving up a spot.

[MizzouRah]

West Virginia? Ok...

[k0ruptr]

I still think Missouri and KU control their own destiny for the bcs title game, either of them win out and they are in

[KWhit]

Missouri? Ok...

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by k0ruptr

The main problem I have is , Hawaii wins, USC doesnt play, therefore that equals USC jumping us? yea that makes a ton of sense.

Frankly, I think Hawaii is rated too high. How many of teams ranked below them would be considered underdogs to Hawaii on a neutral field?

Hawaii will get a poll bump if they beat Boise - probably quite a few spots. I think most voters are waiting on this game and the Washington game to really judge them.

[RendeR]

knowing that Ohio State is done for the season until their Bowl game, what does the rest of the top-5's schedules look like? Is there really an opportunity for 3 of the 4 to lose a game?

[Buccaneer]

Originally Posted by dawgfan

Frankly, I think Hawaii is rated too high. How many of teams ranked below them would be considered underdogs to Hawaii on a neutral field?

Hawaii will get a poll bump if they beat Boise - probably quite a few spots. I think most voters are waiting on this game and the Washington game to really judge them.

Will playing against Washington be a good judge for any team or is their record deceiving?

[RendeR]

It should be a bit of a litmus test, Washington plays very well, but tends to choke in the second half of games. If Hawaii is worthy of higher expectations they need to take Washington on and take them out early and hard. They've gotta look great against washington.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by RendeR

knowing that Ohio State is done for the season until their Bowl game, what does the rest of the top-5's schedules look like? Is there really an opportunity for 3 of the 4 to lose a game?

LSU: vs. Arkansas, SEC title game
Kansas: vs. Missouri, possibly Big 12 championship game
West Virginia: vs. Connecticut, vs. Pittsburgh
Missouri: vs. Kansas, possibly Big 12 championship game

And then there's Arizona State: @ USC, vs. Arizona

I think Ohio State has maybe a 1 in 3 chance of sneaking in to the title game.

[MizzouRah]

Originally Posted by KWhit

Missouri? Ok...

Go UConn!!!!!

[RendeR]

OK so we're big fans of UCONN, and we need the winner of the Mizzou/KU game to lose in the Big-12 title game, then we're in? =)

thats plausible, really.

Seriously though, knowing we thumped Mishitgan, and we'll get a BCS Bowl game and still have a SHOT at the title game in a season where we shouldn't really be in the running for the "lower class businessman's ball bowl" due to player turnover after a chapionship game appearence last year, I think this has been a fantastic Season for the Buckeyes.

[RendeR]

OK so we're big fans of UCONN, and we need the winner of the Mizzou/KU game to lose in the Big-12 title game, then we're in? =)

thats plausible, really.

Seriously though, knowing we thumped Mishitgan, and we'll get a BCS Bowl game and still have a SHOT at the title game in a season where we shouldn't really be in the running for the "lower class businessman's ball bowl" due to player turnover after a chapionship game appearence last year, I think this has been a fantastic Season for the Buckeyes.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by RendeR

OK so we're big fans of UCONN, and we need the winner of the Mizzou/KU game to lose in the Big-12 title game, then we're in? =)

Also you need Arizona State to lose to either USC or Arizona.

[timmynausea]

Originally Posted by RendeR

OK so we're big fans of UCONN, and we need the winner of the Mizzou/KU game to lose in the Big-12 title game, then we're in? =)

An LSU loss, either against Arkansas or in the SEC championship game, could also take the place of one of those. OSU fans probably want to root against Arizona State, too, as a Sun Devil win over USC could move them ahead of the Buckeyes in the polls.

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by Buccaneer

Will playing against Washington be a good judge for any team or is their record deceiving?

Washington is a mediocre BCS team. They've underachieved IMO, but that's really a topic for another day.

As far as Hawaii is concerned though, Washington is at worst the 2nd best team on their schedule this year, and they beat the only team on Hawaii's schedule that could be considered better, Boise State.

Washington will also serve as a bit of a comparison for Hawaii, to see how they stack up with them as compared to how ASU, Oregon, Ohio State and USC did against the Huskies.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by k0ruptr

I still think Missouri and KU control their own destiny for the bcs title game, either of them win out and they are in

That's pretty much a given because of the strength of MU/KU's remaining opponents. I haven't seen a forecast model yet where MU or KU doesn't end up #2 in the BCS with wins in the next two games.

[k0ruptr]

The huskies will be playing UP to since that will essentially be there bowl game.

and the chance to be a spoiler if Hawaii comes in at 11-0

[MizzouRah]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

That's pretty much a given because of the strength of MU/KU's remaining opponents. I haven't seen a forecast model yet where MU or KU doesn't end up #2 in the BCS with wins in the next two games.

Agreed.

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by k0ruptr

The huskies will be playing UP to since that will essentially be there bowl game.

and the chance to be a spoiler if Hawaii comes in at 11-0

Yep. As disappointing as this season has been in terms of being eliminated already from bowl contention (and the first time the UW has ever had 4 consecutive losing seasons) there are things to play for - win the Apple Cup against our chief rivals next week, and the possibility the week after of knocking off an undefeated Hawaii team in front of a number of local island recruits the UW would like to snag.

Beating an undefeated Hawaii team would be something Ty Willingham could really use to bolster wavering support for his continued employment.

[Swaggs]

I think most WVU fans are resigned to the fact that Mizzou/Kansas are kind of ranked #2a and #2b right now and that (if we can keep winning) we are going to be the de facto #3 team, regardless of the actual rankings the next couple of weeks.

[RedKingGold]

Hmm...that's an interesting thought.

Assuming winner of KSU-Missouri loses in the Big-12 championship game and WVU loses to Connecutict, taking out the fact that OSU won't have played in two weeks, do you take a 10-1 Arizona State or 10-1 Ohio State against LSU?

Also, while I agree that Hawaii probably would not deserve a BCS bid, I hope that a BCS Bowl takes them, just to see if they can hang out with the big boys. Sure, if it's a blowout in the first quarter like it'll probably be, then I'd stop watching. However, the possibility of another Boise State game is intriguing, plus, a blowout would be exactly the same as my viewership of the national championship game and Notre Dame-LSU from last season.

[st.cronin]

I think I would be more surprised by Washington beating Hawaii than I would if Arkansas beats LSU.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by RedKingGold

Hmm...that's an interesting thought.

Assuming winner of KSU-Missouri loses in the Big-12 championship game and WVU loses to Connecutict, taking out the fact that OSU won't have played in two weeks, do you take a 10-1 Arizona State or 10-1 Ohio State against LSU?

Also, while I agree that Hawaii probably would not deserve a BCS bid, I hope that a BCS Bowl takes them, just to see if they can hang out with the big boys. Sure, if it's a blowout in the first quarter like it'll probably be, then I'd stop watching. However, the possibility of another Boise State game is intriguing, plus, a blowout would be exactly the same as my viewership of the national championship game and Notre Dame-LSU from last season.

I think there is little question that ASU jumps Ohio State with a win over USC. ASU's only loss (to Oregon) would be much better than Ohio State's or WVU's losses and their best win (USC) would be better than either of those teams, as well. The three are currently tied for 3rd in the BCS's computer rankings and a win over USC will make the pollsters move them up, as well.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I think I would be more surprised by Washington beating Hawaii than I would if Arkansas beats LSU.

Yeah, but you think Dorrell should keep his job, so I tend to dismiss what you think when it involves the Pac-10.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Yeah, but you think Dorrell should keep his job, so I tend to dismiss what you think when it involves the Pac-10.

I've softened my stance on that, they've clearly underachieved this year given their talent. Although, they could conceivably still win the Pac 10...

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by RendeR

OK so we're big fans of UCONN, and we need the winner of the Mizzou/KU game to lose in the Big-12 title game, then we're in? =)

thats plausible, really.

The Missouri/KU winner will likely mudhole their opponent in the Big XII Championship game.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

The Missouri/KU winner will likely mudhole their opponent in the Big XII Championship game.

This is a verb form I'm not familiar with.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

LSU: vs. Arkansas, SEC title game
Kansas: vs. Missouri, possibly Big 12 championship game
West Virginia: vs. Connecticut, vs. Pittsburgh
Missouri: vs. Kansas, possibly Big 12 championship game

And then there's Arizona State: @ USC, vs. Arizona

I think Ohio State has maybe a 1 in 3 chance of sneaking in to the title game.

you got this wrong...ASU is at home for their last two games

[cartman]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

This is a verb form I'm not familiar with.

It's a Southern term. If, after a fight, one guy completely destroyed the other one, you'd tell the guy that won "You really stomped a mudhole on him".

[MizzouRah]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

This is a verb form I'm not familiar with.

See: Public Enemy

[CU Tiger]

That boy would stomp a mudhole in him and then walk em dry...

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by RedKingGold

Assuming winner of KSU-Missouri loses in the Big-12 championship game and WVU loses to Connecutict, taking out the fact that OSU won't have played in two weeks, do you take a 10-1 Arizona State or 10-1 Ohio State against LSU?

Wow, 11-0 and we still can't get any love. That's perfect, tho, the chip on KU's shoulder all year is what has kept them going.

SI

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

The Missouri/KU winner will likely mudhole their opponent in the Big XII Championship game.

I'm just not convinced of that. The winner of KU/Mizzou has been getting up for this game for the past month, at least in the back of their minds. The next week, the team is going to be somewhat drained unless it's a complete laugher (which probably will mean Mizzou has won as I can see pretty much any scenario for the game except KU blowout win).

SI

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I think I would be more surprised by Washington beating Hawaii than I would if Arkansas beats LSU.

Well, we'll see how Hawaii deals with Boise next week. I'm just not very impressed with Hawaii's schedule so far and some of their close calls. I'm not saying Washington is a lock by any means, but I certainly don't think Hawaii is vastly superior. I think the biggest thing Hawaii will have going for them in that game is the potential distraction factor for Washington.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I've softened my stance on that, they've clearly underachieved this year given their talent. Although, they could conceivably still win the Pac 10...

I so freakin' know that, and it's stunning really. It's more a testament to how the top Pac-10 teams have beaten themselves to death this season that UCLA still has a chance to end up in the Rose Bowl. And with Dixon hurting himself and out for next week's game, it's almost like God is laughing at Bruins fans, tempting us.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

I'm just not convinced of that. The winner of KU/Mizzou has been getting up for this game for the past month, at least in the back of their minds. The next week, the team is going to be somewhat drained unless it's a complete laugher (which probably will mean Mizzou has won as I can see pretty much any scenario for the game except KU blowout win).

SI

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that the winner of the MU/KU game won't have to find too much motivation for the B12 championship given that a National Championship spot will be on the line for either MU or KU in that instance. I'm really hoping that OU survives in the south. They've got some injuries that could aid the chances of the North team.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

FYI.....for those curious about the BCS poll and how it will work down the stretch. Below are the details on how the computer rankings would work assuming LSU, ASU, WVU, and MU win all their remaining games (KU is obviously in the Nat'l Championship assuming they win out). Note that I copied this info from a Mizzou site, so 'we' in this case would be from Mizzou's perspective.........

Anderson & Hester (www.andersonsports.com/football/ACF_frnk.html)

We are currently ranked 4th (5th last week) and WVU is ranked 6th (9th last week). These rankings are a little bit deceiving because we are nearly tied for first place. LSU is at .7713, Arizona State .7712, Kansas .7709, and Missouri .7707. Our remaining strength of schedule gives us a substantial advantage over the other “first place” teams and West Virginia. If we beat KU and win the Big 12 championship we will be ranked 1st in this poll at the end of the season. West Virginia will likely improve to 4th (if everyone wins out) by passing Kansas and Ohio State. The final rankings will be Missouri in first, LSU in second, Arizona State in third, West Virginia in fourth, and Ohio State will be fifth.

Richard Billingsley (www.cfrc.com/Ratings_2007/WK_13.htm)

We are currently ranked 6th (10th last week) and WVU is ranked 3rd (4th last week). This poll bucked the trend this week. We improved four spots while WVU only improved one spot. As I have said in the past, all the computer polls factor strength of schedule into the poll in some fashion. This poll is different than most because the strength of schedule appears to be based on the quality of the opponent at the time of the game rather than the current quality of the opponent. In other words, if you played a team when they were good and they subsequently decline your schedule strength is not impacted. This makes it a little easier to predict what will happen in this poll because you don’t have to factor in what the first 10 or 11 opponents might do over the next two weeks. It really boils down to what happens in the next two games for the top teams. If the top teams all win out, LSU will be first, West Virginia will be second, Ohio State will be third and Missouri will be fourth (possibly 5th).

Colley Matrix (www.colleyrankings.com/currank.html)

We are currently ranked 6th (6th last week) and WVU is ranked 4h (7th last week). This computer ranking is unique because the web site allows you to run hypothetical scenarios assuming various game outcomes. If the top teams all win out, LSU will be first, Missouri will be second, West Virginia will be third (possibly fourth) and Ohio State will be fourth (possibly third).

Kenneth Massey (www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cf)

We are currently ranked 6th (5th last week) and WVU is ranked 7h (9th last week). We are currently 6th, but we are essentially tied for 4th with Ohio State and Georgia. If we win out we will pass both of those teams as well as Kansas and Arizona State. West Virginia will also improve in the polls, but I believe they will have difficulty passing Arizona State and Ohio State. If the top teams all win out, LSU will be first, Missouri will be second, Arizona State will be third, Ohio State will be fourth and West Virginia will be 5th.

Jeff Sagarin (www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt07.htm)

We are currently ranked 4th (5th last week) and WVU is ranked 3rd (8th last week). This is the one of the polls where we suffered the most relative to WVU. I believe the suffering is temporary. If we win out our strength of schedule will move us ahead of WVU and into second place in the final rankings. If the top teams all win out, LSU will be first, Missouri will be second, West Virginia will be third, Arizona State will be fourth and Ohio State will be 5th.

Peter Wolfe (http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/ratings.htm)

We are currently ranked 4th (4th last week) and WVU is ranked 3rd (8th last week). We also lost a lot of ground to WVU in this poll, five spots in total. If we win out we will move into second place by passing Kansas. If the top teams all win out, LSU will be first, Missouri will be second, West Virginia will be third, Ohio State will be fourth and Arizona State will be 5th.

[JW]

Originally Posted by JW

As for LSU, they have a tough road ahead. Arkansas won't be easy, and then there is the SEC championship game, against Tennessee if they beat Kentucky, or against Georgia if Tennessee loses. And LSU fans would much rather play Tenn. than Ga. Ga. is very hot right now and an excellent team. I honestly think LSU has a tougher road to get to the BCS championship game than to win it. LSU has shown over the last few years that they are a very formidable bowl team, especially in the Sugar Bowl.

I just thought I would revisit this post after last night.