Obama 10:50 PM Announcement: bin Laden dead - Embassy Attack False Alarm

[mckerney]

[MJ4H]

haha

[JPhillips]

This is really cool.

Could Osama bin Laden have been found faster if the CIA had followed the advice of ecosystem geographers from the University of California, Los Angeles? Probably not, but the predictions of UCLA geographer Thomas Gillespie, who, along with colleague John Agnew and a class of undergraduates, authored a 2009 paper predicting the terrorist’s whereabouts, were none too shabby. According to a probabilistic model they created, there was an 80.9% chance that bin Laden was hiding out in Abbottabad, Pakistan, where he was killed last night. And they correctly predicted that he would be in a large town, not a cave.

The bin Laden tracking idea began as a project in an undergraduate class on remote sensing that Gillespie, whose expertise is using remote sensing data from satellites to study ecosystems, taught in 2009. Based on information from satellites and other remote sensing systems, and reports on his movements since his last known location, the students created a probabilistic model of where he was likely to be. Their prediction of a town was based on a geographical theory called “island biogeography”: basically, that a species on a large island is much less likely to go extinct following a catastrophic event than a species on a small one.

“The theory was basically that if you’re going to try and survive, you’re going to a region with a low extinction rate: a large town,” Gillespie says. “We hypothesized he wouldn’t be in a small town where people could report on him.”

“It’s not my thing to do this type of [terrorism] stuff,” he says. “But the same theories we use to study endangered birds can be used to do this.”...

The undergraduates did such a nice job on the project, Gillespie says, that he wrote the results up as a paper and submitted it to a small journal, MIT International Review. The next day, he was shocked to find his
inbox full of requests for interviews from everyone from USA Today to Sean Hannity. (He declined the latter.)

[CU Tiger]

gameover.jpg

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

This is really cool.

It also turns out we could have found him if the CIA had used Google.

[Johninja]

Originally Posted by SteveMax58

I think you could really draw some observations from that image.

Like for instance, look who is at the head of the table. IDK his name, but he looks like a high ranking general. It appears to me he was probably the first in that room as the operation began

I would say the guy in the blue suit is the IT guy but he has way too many medals. Unless they give medals for IT. I got this one in the server crash of '09.....lol

Oh and *%$# Bin laden.

[Alan T]

The General in the middle that you are talking about is Brig. Gen. Marshall B. "Brad" Webb

Biographies : BRIGADIER GENERAL MARSHALL B. "BRAD" WEBB

[Rizon]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs2

You know, if this was like that CSI or Bones show, then someone would do a zoom in and clear up on that one generals glasses, so we could see the reflection of the movie off them.

[Neon_Chaos]

[Rizon]

Originally Posted by Alan T

The General in the middle that you are talking about is Brig. Gen. Marshall B. "Brad" Webb

Biographies : BRIGADIER GENERAL MARSHALL B. "BRAD" WEBB

And CJCS Michael Mullen standing right behind him. I guess if you have more stars you don't get a seat.

[Critch]

real or fake?



He's looking well for his years on the run, except for the hole in his forehead.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by Critch

real or fake?



He's looking well for his years on the run, except for the hole in his forehead.

Fake, for two reasons:

1. I just happened to have seen the reverse image on another site several hours ago.



2. It doesn't match the description of his wounds from news sources.

The senior us official also says the White House received 3 sets of photos yesterday. The photos included:

1. Photos of OBLs body at a hanger after he was brought back to Afghanistan. This is the most recognizable with a clear picture of his face. The picture is gruesome because he has a massive open head wound across both eyes. It’s very bloody and gory.

[Rizon]

A "senior US official" was reported as describing the picture as this:

Photos of OBLs body at a hanger after he was brought back to Afghanistan. This is the most recognizable with a clear picture of his face. The picture is gruesome because he has a massive open head wound across both eyes. It’s very bloody and gory.

[Rizon]

Ksyrup FTW

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Here's the original to the fake:

http://img2.uploadhouse.com/fileuplo...ce9d93181b.jpg

[AENeuman]

Given that the General is the only not looking at the screen I assume he is receiving all the feeds and putting up the most relevant on the big screen. Not necessarily an act of subordination by Obama

[JAG]

Originally Posted by stevew

I was just thinking that if we had a few bouncing smilies going on in this thread, it would resemble an Omertà obit

Ha, I had Omertà flashbacks when I saw the Rot in Hell newspaper cover on whatever NY paper it was that had it.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by AENeuman

Given that the General is the only not looking at the screen I assume he is receiving all the feeds and putting up the most relevant on the big screen. Not necessarily an act of subordination by Obama

I've worked for a couple of bosses who would have demanded the biggest chair at the table no matter who was doing what.

[molson]

White House is now saying Osama was not armed, but that he did resist. Karate? Jedi Mind Tricks?

[JediKooter]

Guess he should have armed himself...

[DeToxRox]

Reports of a huge explosion in Kabul, believed to be at the U.S Embassy. I'm just seeing Real Time updates on Google, but I don't see it on CNN or anything yet.

[DeToxRox]

Reports Of Huge Explosion In Kabul

Reports Of Huge Explosion In Kabul
Gregory White | May 3, 2011, 3:55 PM | 1,486 | comment

Reports Of Huge Explosion In Kabul

The latest: The International Security Assistance Force (led by NATO) has confirmed the explosion, but not any details on the explosion.

From BNO News:

"We have a report of an explosion in Kabul. We are currently checking with our Afghan partners for more information," an ISAF spokesperson said, without providing more details.

The latest report on the ground, from Wall Street Journal correspondent Dion Nissenbaum, is that the explosion hit west of the ISAF and U.S. Embassy, according to the ISAF.

There are reports from journalists on the ground in Afghanistan that a huge explosion has been heard in Kabul.

No confirmation yet on the explosion, or where it has happened. Jonathan Boone, a journalist writing for The Guardian, has received a phone call suggesting the explosion was at the U.S. embassy, but that's yet to have been confirmed.

More to follow...

[Rizon]

hxxp://www.businessinsider.com/kabul-explosion-us-embassy-rumor-2011-5

Reports Of Huge Explosion In Kabul
Gregory White | May 3, 2011, 3:55 PM | 1,588 | comment

A A A


Afghanistan war

Image: wikipedia
See Also:
Apache helicopter
Politics In 60 Seconds: What You Need To Know Right Now
Demonstrators in Lahore, Pakistan
US-Pakistan Relations Reach Their Nadir
Afghanistan war
Reports Of Huge Explosion In Kabul

The latest: The International Security Assistance Force (led by NATO) has confirmed the explosion, but not any details on the explosion.

From BNO News:

"We have a report of an explosion in Kabul. We are currently checking with our Afghan partners for more information," an ISAF spokesperson said, without providing more details.

The latest report on the ground, from Wall Street Journal correspondent Dion Nissenbaum, is that the explosion hit west of the ISAF and U.S. Embassy, according to the ISAF.

There are reports from journalists on the ground in Afghanistan that a huge explosion has been heard in Kabul.

No confirmation yet on the explosion, or where it has happened. Jonathan Boone, a journalist writing for The Guardian, has received a phone call suggesting the explosion was at the U.S. embassy, but that's yet to have been confirmed.

More to follow...

A Twitter feed had a guy drive by the US Embassy and it was ok.

[DeToxRox]

Yeah looks like it was relatively near the Embassy but the Embassy is fine.

[Rizon]

DeTox and Kysrup have both beat me to the punch today. I feel like Michael Spinks.

[JediKooter]

Do you at least still have your teefus? Or is that Leon?

[JonInMiddleGA]

Now that I see the source, I certainly have my doubts about it since their "journalism" during this has been notably bad. Their original "story" about the weapons likely to have been used during the raid was comically bad.

[sachmo71]

just checking to see if franklinnoble was trolling fofc as hard as FB

[GrantDawg]

Just for the record: Glen Beck is a moron.

Just want to see what he was saying, and he is making the arguement we shouldn't have killed him. Seriously. If Obama cured cancer, Beck would argue that we really need cancer, and Obama is pushing a communist agenda by curing it. A moron.

[Sweed]

Originally Posted by molson

White House is now saying Osama was not armed, but that he did resist. Karate? Jedi Mind Tricks?

Originally Posted by JediKooter

Guess he should have armed himself...

[fantom1979]

I was trying to remember where that line was from. Thanks

[Johninja]

Originally Posted by AENeuman

Given that the General is the only not looking at the screen I assume he is receiving all the feeds and putting up the most relevant on the big screen. Not necessarily an act of subordination by Obama

Pretty much what i was trying to say

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Just for the record: Glen Beck is a moron.

Just want to see what he was saying, and he is making the arguement we shouldn't have killed him. Seriously. If Obama cured cancer, Beck would argue that we really need cancer, and Obama is pushing a communist agenda by curing it. A moron.

+1

[sabotai]

Originally Posted by mckerney

It also turns out we could have found him if the CIA had used Google.

On the news, they keep talking about how his compound was "near here" and "next to this" and everyone's going "How could they not have known!?"

But then I look at this (lol at the marker), and see it's in "a corner" essentially, more of a rural-like area of the town, well out of the way from anything that would be like a high traffic area. If he never left the compound, I could easily see how he could have hid there for years without being noticed.

[larrymcg421]

From what I've read, they've known about the compound for a long time and have been watching, but there was no evidence at all that Bin Laden was there until they tracked the courier.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by mckerney

It also turns out we could have found him if the CIA had used Google.

I love that people are now writing reviews for the location. However, three stars is pretty high for a place with no internet access. That would be the biggest turn off for me.

[sabotai]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

From what I've read, they've known about the compound for a long time and have been watching, but there was no evidence at all that Bin Laden was there until they tracked the courier.

The implication that I keep hearing (from many places) is that the Pakistan government must have known that Osama bin Laden was there because of how close it is to the Pakistan's version of West Point when it's really not close to that or anything else.

[Rizon]

Originally Posted by sabotai

On the news, they keep talking about how his compound was "near here" and "next to this" and everyone's going "How could they not have known!?"

But then I look at this (lol at the marker), and see it's in "a corner" essentially, more of a rural-like area of the town, well out of the way from anything that would be like a high traffic area. If he never left the compound, I could easily see how he could have hid there for years without being noticed.

I like how it was referred to as a "mansion". It's a frickin shack. Saw video of the inside today at lunch and it looks like an abandoned backyard shed inside. Maybe it's a mansion in Pakistan.

[sabotai]

Originally Posted by Rizon

I like how it was referred to as a "mansion". It's a frickin shack. Saw video of the inside today at lunch and it looks like an abandoned backyard shed inside. Maybe it's a mansion in Pakistan.

Haven't heard mansion, but have seen it described as "luxurious" more than once. Why, because it had curtains?

[RPI-Fan]

Originally Posted by sabotai

Haven't heard mansion, but have seen it described as "luxurious" more than once. Why, because it had curtains?

It was definitely described as a mansion in the news reports on Sunday night.

[tucker rocky]

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

I love that people are now writing reviews for the location. However, three stars is pretty high for a place with no internet access. That would be the biggest turn off for me.

My favorite part is that the main picture for it is the Bluth model home from Arrested Development.

[JediKooter]

Originally Posted by Sweed

Perfect! I'm glad someone got it.

[JonInMiddleGA]

FWIW (which ain't much since I've covered a good bit of this here already), the blog is updated with my thoughts on various parts of this story. Hopefully more organized than my drive-thru posts here, even if it may not be any more agreeable to some. Still, a few of you are usually kind enough to boost my ego with a click so I'll provide the link in case you're so inclined & aren't on overload.

When the wicked perish … | Jon's Three Cents

[DanGarion]

Originally Posted by sabotai

Haven't heard mansion, but have seen it described as "luxurious" more than once. Why, because it had curtains?

And pillows.

[DanGarion]

Originally Posted by tucker rocky

I'm actually surprised that Osama himself wasn't in that picture.

[fantom1979]

Originally Posted by DanGarion

I'm actually surprised that Osama himself wasn't in that picture.

No doubt.. by looking at some of the people in the picture, death is not a obstacle.

[Buccaneer]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

From what I've read, they've known about the compound for a long time and have been watching, but there was no evidence at all that Bin Laden was there until they tracked the courier.

Not until Ding Chavez and John Clark showed up to stake out the place.

The ecosystem geography bit from UCLA is cool. That is my field, even though I don't do ecosystem modeling.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Buccaneer

Not until Ding Chavez and John Clark showed up to stake out the place.

Score

[Galaxy]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

From what I've read, they've known about the compound for a long time and have been watching, but there was no evidence at all that Bin Laden was there until they tracked the courier.

Courier who led U.S. to Osama bin Laden's hideout identified - CNN.com


What has been the reaction in Pakistan (both gov't and citizens), Israel and the rest of the Middle East?