(POL) Stimulus'ed out yet? You ain't seen nothin yet...

[Flasch186]

welp, if you look at the numbers that come out....we are. If the gov't had done nothing when this was seen at first I can't even imagine the carnage we would be seeing now.

Assets deflating
prices deflating
investments deflating

shoot, Bernanke mentioned it today on the hill {shrug}. I guess we can just ignore it and eventually we will stabilize. At what standard of living, who knows.

[flere-imsaho]

Ah for the halcyon days of 1999, when our biggest political issue was the aftermath of Clinton's acquittal in the Senate, our biggest economic issue was how to spend a $127 Billion budget surplus, and our biggest foreign policy issue was the completion of a NATO campaign against Yugoslavia in which NATO suffered zero combat deaths and successfully installed U.N. Peacekeepers.

[Flasch186]

AND rescued a downed pilot behind enemy lines!

[JPhillips]

Gene Hackman never did get enough credit for that.

[Flasch186]

cuz Gossett Jr. hogs it all!

[Fidatelo]

Originally Posted by Flasch186

welp, if you look at the numbers that come out....we are. If the gov't had done nothing when this was seen at first I can't even imagine the carnage we would be seeing now.

Assets deflating
prices deflating
investments deflating

shoot, Bernanke mentioned it today on the hill {shrug}. I guess we can just ignore it and eventually we will stabilize. At what standard of living, who knows.

We are creating inflation on a massive scale right now. This deflation is temporary (aka not a cycle). Prices on everything are going to go through the roof in the next 2-5 years. I'm betting salaries do not keep up.

[Flasch186]

ok, im glad to see where we disagree on things. You think the money were printing will cause inflation while I think the money were printing is just plugging all the holes where the money that existed over the past 10 years has disappeared or vanished. This will IMO get us to level out where we can achieve some normalcy going forward. You see a massive see-saw (and could be right) while I see us trying to unfurl a parachute.

We disagree on where the baseline is where deflation or inflation occurs. My assumption is that baseline is much much lower than where yours is and while I think Im right, you could just as well be.

[Buccaneer]

Originally Posted by Flasch186

ok, im glad to see where we disagree on things. You think the money were printing will cause inflation while I think the money were printing is just plugging all the holes where the money that existed over the past 10 years has disappeared or vanished. This will IMO get us to level out where we can achieve some normalcy going forward. You see a massive see-saw (and could be right) while I see us trying to unfurl a parachute.

We disagree on where the baseline is where deflation or inflation occurs. My assumption is that baseline is much much lower than where yours is and while I think Im right, you could just as well be.

If you really have no clue, as do most of the rest of us, then don't cry deflation in every other post. You probably see it through the narrow view of the real estate market, some of us see it as a buyers market. We all know that the consequences are going to be really bad down the road but right now, I do not trust the federal govt (or its apologists like Bernanke) since they are basically throwing money at the problem without really fixing anything.

[Flasch186]

I have a clue because ALL of the statistics, not just in real estate, add up to the conclusion I'm reaching. Apparently others see the same evidence and draw other conclusions, so be it, and they have their clue too. Me and Bernanke are in agreement on this.

Last time I checked this was a message board filled with posts and thoughts from a wide variety of people. If you dont want to see mine, put me on your ignore list or stop coming in these types of threads, cuz I like the debate and banter...im sorry if you dont. Doesnt mean Im wrong.

[SportsDino]

I may disagree with Flasch on the whole deflation/inflation issue, but he is free to intepret what is going on how he sees it, and state his opinion. That is what I have done as well, put my interpretation out there, not guaranteed to be accurate.

I will say that I don't think I agree with Bernanke, who I feel is a stooge of the super rich banks (well the entire Fed is really). Also I don't know if I have shared my 'short categorization' of economics, but most of the people spreading the most wind out there these days fall amongst those I consider 'talking out their ass'. I'll admit I am closer to the Ron Paul side of the spectrum (if you could really interpret it as a linear relationship, although really there are many sub-categories and I'm sure Ron Paul would not lump himself in with me either ).

In my opinion, the real statistics will show this is not going to be staving off deflation, its going to be the start of the biggest inflation jump in a few decades. But to follow my line of reasoning you need to completely distance yourself from the mish-mash of economists spouting random garbage for a long time now trying to support one pet agenda or another. By the commonly accepted (by the media) style of economics, you could very well accept the current state as a deflation crisis... especially with their emphasis on certain indicators while ignoring others (basically, they enjoy macroeconomic anomaly as the heart of their philosophy, while I'd be called a short-sighted microeconomist with unprovable theories).

However, I find the Republicans suddenly growing a conscience on spending even more distasteful. True fiscal conservatives should have been screaming bloody murder during the entire Bush regime of economic terrorism (and obvious loot friendly policy).

[SFL Cat]

Originally Posted by SportsDino

However, I find the Republicans suddenly growing a conscience on spending even more distasteful. True fiscal conservatives should have been screaming bloody murder during the entire Bush regime of economic terrorism (and obvious loot friendly policy).

True dat.

[sterlingice]

I think we're in for some short term deflation, particularly where it's needed in the housing market, and then some crazy out of control inflation for a while. Well, out of control for us- not out of control for, say, the third world, but something unheard of here, like 10%.

That said, I'm no economist

SI

[SFL Cat]

But you did stay in a Holiday Inn Express the other night, right?!

[sterlingice]

Of course

SI

[ISiddiqui]

I'd agree on some of that. Deflation will happen in some sectors, where it probably needs to. Waaay too soon to say the entire economy as a whole will go into deflation (less inflation does NOT equal deflation).

And, yes, I do have an economics degree. A BA perhaps, but it's still something!

[sterlingice]

I've got a BS in Computer Science so fat lot of economic good I am

SI

[Buccaneer]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

I'd agree on some of that. Deflation will happen in some sectors, where it probably needs to. Waaay too soon to say the entire economy as a whole will go into deflation (less inflation does NOT equal deflation).

And, yes, I do have an economics degree. A BA perhaps, but it's still something!

No one seemed to have mind when the prices of oil and gasoline reduced substantially.

[sterlingice]

I think we are confusing two things, too. There was this weird freakish inflation spike this past summer than can be almost solely traced to high gas prices. That's not a one time event, but it was an exceptional event. (I'd love for it to be a one time event but it's going to take some work on our energy policy)

SI

[Buccaneer]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

I think we are confusing two things, too. There was this weird freakish inflation spike this past summer than can be almost solely traced to high gas prices. That's not a one time event, but it was an exceptional event. (I'd love for it to be a one time event but it's going to take some work on our energy policy)

SI

Could one also talk about the weird freakish inflation spike (albeit over a longer period) in the run-up of the housing markets (in some areas), in the stocks and market caps, as well as the oil speculation?

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Flasch186

welp, if you look at the numbers that come out....we are. If the gov't had done nothing when this was seen at first I can't even imagine the carnage we would be seeing now.

Assets deflating
prices deflating
investments deflating

shoot, Bernanke mentioned it today on the hill {shrug}. I guess we can just ignore it and eventually we will stabilize. At what standard of living, who knows.

My only problem with Flasch (and other people shouting the same anti-deflationary message) are that asset price deflation and a decline in the paper worth of stock market investments has no effect on an individuals or family's standard of living. Whether the market price of your house is the 200k it was worth 10 years ago, the $1 million it was worth 2 years ago, or the 500k it's valued at now has no effect on the intrinsic value of living in the house. Meanwhile, the inflation cause by well, inflating the prices of the houses to their previous paper worth, will ream us all in the next few years.

Originally Posted by Bucc

Could one also talk about the weird freakish inflation spike (albeit over a longer period) in the run-up of the housing markets (in some areas)

With the exception of Detroit, all 10 cities broken out by the Case/Shiller house price index show that as of December, home prices were still at least 15% higher than they were in January 2000; their 20-city composite index was still up over 50%.

[Flasch186]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

My only problem with Flasch (and other people shouting the same anti-deflationary message) are that asset price deflation and a decline in the paper worth of stock market investments has no effect on an individuals or family's standard of living. Whether the market price of your house is the 200k it was worth 10 years ago, the $1 million it was worth 2 years ago, or the 500k it's valued at now has no effect on the intrinsic value of living in the house. Meanwhile, the inflation cause by well, inflating the prices of the houses to their previous paper worth, will ream us all in the next few years.

Asset deflation has as much of a psychological effect on people and investing as it does actual individual standards of living. What I mean, is that when people see this deflationary feedback loop they will horde their cash, cease investing in all kinds of things like home buying, car buying, etc etc. (which is not necessarily a bad thing if it can be plateaued or reversed somewhat) but what you'll get in an deflationary environment that leaps out of our hands is a massive problem and its much harder to reverse than inflation. Now if youre arguing that most people are trying to time the bottom than great I cant wait for the reversal however I'd say MOST people are getting wiped out of both their cash AND what cash they thought they had access too AND theyre losing faith in the system. This is creating an environment that dowsnt allow for a whole lot of inflation IMO on the other side of this.

As I said earlier, no one is against Bucc's reduction in the inflation spikes however those bubbles popped as I called it (didnt make much $ on it though cuz I wussed out). A deflationary sucking is much harder to pop.

[Flasch186]

Not that it'll do any good or you'll take him at his word or want to give him a shot but...

Bernanke confident can keep U.S. inflation at bay - Yahoo! Finance

Originally Posted by Bernanke

Bernanke confident can keep U.S. inflation at bay

By Alister Bull and Mark Felsenthal
Reuters - Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies to the House Financial Services Committee in Washington, DC, February 25, 2009. ...

Reuters - Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies to the House Financial Services Committee in Washington, DC, February 25, 2009. ...

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said on Wednesday that he had an exit strategy from the U.S. central bank's recent massive monetary expansion that will keep inflation under control as the economy recovers.

"We are quite confident that we can raise interest rates, reduce the money supply and do that all in a timely way to avoid any inflationary consequences," Bernanke told the House of Representatives Financial Services Committee as he delivered a second day of testimony on the Fed's monetary policy report.

A severe U.S. recession has brought price pressures sharply to heel and the Fed chief said that inflation would not be a problem for the next couple of years because of the considerable economic slack created by the steep slowdown.

The Fed has cut benchmark overnight interest rates almost to zero and has pumped over $1 trillion into credit markets to keep them functioning after the collapse of the U.S. housing market sparked a global credit crisis last year.

Bernanke defended the Fed's aggressive actions, and said steps taken by the U.S. central bank and others last fall averted what could have been a "global financial meltdown."

"I do quite seriously believe we avoided in mid-October ... a collapse of the global financial system which would have led us into a truly deep and very protracted economic crisis," he said.

The Fed chairman acknowledged that at some point economic growth would begin to take up the economy's slack, and said that would mean reversing policy to prevent the enormous increase in the U.S. money supply from creating inflation.

"It is very important for us, once the economy begins to recover -- as usual, the Fed would have to begin to tighten policy -- it is very important for us to begin then to unwind our monetary expansion," he told lawmakers.

Critics worry it will be very hard for the Fed to abandon major programs to prop up the market for mortgages and consumer loans, which have ballooned the size of its balance sheet to almost $2 trillion, and that a troubling inflation will be the eventual result.

Bernanke acknowledged the risks, but said that many of the emergency measures taken by the Fed to boost credit markets would expire with time, and stressed that there was more than one way to tighten monetary policy to curb inflation.

"We also have other tools, such as our ability to pay interest on reserves, which will help us raise interest rates, even if we don't get the amount of money outstanding back down as quickly as we otherwise would like."

As he had on Tuesday, Bernanke said he did not see a need for the United States to nationalize banks.

His comments on Tuesday fueled a surge in U.S. stock prices. Stocks dropped back on Wednesday, although a remark from Bernanke that U.S. officials do not plan anything like nationalization for Citigroup, which sources have said is in talks with the government on its capital needs, helped stocks cut losses.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Whether the market price of your house is the 200k it was worth 10 years ago, the $1 million it was worth 2 years ago, or the 500k it's valued at now has no effect on the intrinsic value of living in the house.

Umm, wouldn't that only be true if the house was purchased for the purpose of living in as a primary residence as opposed to an investment to be flipped sooner rather than later? In other words, living in a particular house is often irrelevant vs living in some other dwelling.

I know relatively few people who looked at their current house as the former ("a house") rather than an asset and/or investment. Residences seem to be by & large considered temporary for most folks outside of those who are intentionally buying "their last house" as part of retirement or similar.

[path12]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

I know relatively few people who looked at their current house as the former ("a house") rather than an asset and/or investment. Residences seem to be by & large considered temporary for most folks outside of those who are intentionally buying "their last house" as part of retirement or similar.

Yup. What many of those folks don't quite realize yet is that 'temporary' is going to be 20 years instead of the 5 they originally planned.

I don't think that's a bad thing either.

[SFL Cat]

Could be if you're close to retirement and you want to cash out what is, for most people, their largest asset.

[SportsDino]

I don't quite agree with Bernanke's faith in his fiscal policy tools. Not to mention the idea of raising interest rates stopping inflation is very naive in my opinion... much more likely to create a credit freeze or screw with growth (or set anyone still with a ticking time bomb ARM to explode). Granted having zero interest rates is dumb to the point of silliness, but ya, everything he said does not inspire one iota of confidence in me.

I'm just glad my spidey sense tingled on Monday and I offloaded a whole bunch of speculative plays before he gave off his little speech. Prices moving 10-25% in some sectors because of the latest hot air from the Fed, WTF? This market is not made for investors whatsoever, dumb luck speculation for the win!

[edit]: yes I'm already calculating my next short, yay evil short monster. [/edit]

[Buccaneer]

Can someone please remind when President Obama's fiscal responsibility plans kick in or is perhaps the House just getting their licks in before that date?

[Flasch186]

Originally Posted by SportsDino

I don't quite agree with Bernanke's faith in his fiscal policy tools. Not to mention the idea of raising interest rates stopping inflation is very naive in my opinion... much more likely to create a credit freeze or screw with growth (or set anyone still with a ticking time bomb ARM to explode). Granted having zero interest rates is dumb to the point of silliness, but ya, everything he said does not inspire one iota of confidence in me.

I'm just glad my spidey sense tingled on Monday and I offloaded a whole bunch of speculative plays before he gave off his little speech. Prices moving 10-25% in some sectors because of the latest hot air from the Fed, WTF? This market is not made for investors whatsoever, dumb luck speculation for the win!

[edit]: yes I'm already calculating my next short, yay evil short monster. [/edit]

Bernanke didnt say raising rates was his only weapon to curb inflation. as a matter of fact he explicitly listed some of the other tools in their repertoire to combat such inflation if and when it comes on.

I just hope that you're making your thesis on ALL the information. You may be right, Bernanke may be wrong, however, and Ill say it again, I AGREE with the others who say we avoided a major cataclysm in October WHICH (for the very first time) Bernanke actually stated such an opinion as well today.

He said that inflation would curb at the end of last year. It did. Bernanke said oil prices would come down last year. they did. Now, he also said some shit that was off too so perhaps you can hang your hat on those BUT I'd argue that the precipice I saw, among other people in October, was dodged and now we deal with, hopefully a controlled deleveraging (which Im for) as opposed to an 'adverse feeback loop' or 'deflationary spiral' (which I am not for).

[Galaxy]

Originally Posted by Buccaneer

Can someone please remind when President Obama's fiscal responsibility plans kick in or is perhaps the House just getting their licks in before that date?

Obama seeks $634 billion for health care - White House- msnbc.com

[Flasch186]

thats over 10 years though....

One thing in there I DO NOT like, at first blush is the raising of the tax rate on couples making over $250K....That means $125K/person and I am absolutely against that and cannot believe that that will fly at that rate or income level once the negotiations go through congress. At least I hope not.

[ISiddiqui]

Now if youre arguing that most people are trying to time the bottom

Which is overwhelmingly what I've seen.

[Flasch186]

I have seen otherwise...people scared stiff, paralyzed, and hording what's left.

[SFL Cat]

Originally Posted by Buccaneer

If you really have no clue, as do most of the rest of us, then don't cry deflation in every other post. You probably see it through the narrow view of the real estate market, some of us see it as a buyers market. We all know that the consequences are going to be really bad down the road but right now, I do not trust the federal govt (or its apologists like Bernanke) since they are basically throwing money at the problem without really fixing anything.

Reminds me of LBJ's Great Society and War on Poverty. We have thrown more money at the federal programs created to support these ideas than most nations on this planet will ever produce during their existance...and yet, damn it, nearly half a century later, we still have the same problems.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Flasch186

I have seen otherwise...people scared stiff, paralyzed, and hording what's left.

Let's just say I just don't see that at all. In fact, I'm not sure I've met anyone with this attitude. I see people saving more than they used to, but that's a good thing.

[Flasch186]

Could be affected by geography, not so much line of work because I can discount that, but generally people of all lines of work, here in Jacksonville, Ive seen scared stiff and their idea of saving more, IMO, has crossed the line to hording.

[ISiddiqui]

This was released on the 21st:

Inflation inches way into area economy in January | Jacksonville.com

After producing an inflation rate of just about zero in Jacksonville in 2008, the first-month increase in the CPI would translate into an annual inflation rate of 4.6 percent for 2009, LEIP said.

UNF economist Paul Mason said. “If this trend continues and is accompanied by continued weakening of GDP, stagflation will become the primary concern,” he said.

It seems y'all have stopped hording if you were doing so .

[cartman]

Originally Posted by SFL Cat

Reminds me of LBJ's Great Society and War on Poverty. We have thrown more money at the federal programs created to support these ideas than most nations on this planet will ever produce during their existance...and yet, damn it, nearly half a century later, we still have the same problems.

Or Nixon's War on Drugs or, more recently, Bush's War on Terror. Slap a "War on" to your pet cause, and it is almost a guarantee to get funded, since Americans can't stand the idea of losing a war, even if is against an indeterminate noun.

[Buccaneer]

Originally Posted by cartman

Or Nixon's War on Drugs or, more recently, Bush's War on Terror. Slap a "War on" to your pet cause, and it is almost a guarantee to get funded, since Americans can't stand the idea of losing a war, even if is against an indeterminate noun.

Yep. Yet they (the federal govt and the voters) don't learn from history.

Flasch, you need to see different people.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

This was released on the 21st:

Inflation inches way into area economy in January | Jacksonville.com

Eep. Almost 5% inflation. I know it's only one month but that's bad

SI

[Flasch186]

it is only 1 month and much like Ive told other people (MBBF) you shouldnt look at only one facet to draw conclusions. Now should that continue for say a quarter I will agree with you and need to change my thoughts. That being said Jacksonville also has a higher unemployment rate than the state average, if Im not mistaken, gas prices definitely jumped up around here for January, etc. etc. etc.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Flasch186

That being said Jacksonville also has a higher unemployment rate than the state average, if Im not mistaken, gas prices definitely jumped up around here for January, etc. etc. etc.

Average gas price up about 2.5 cents per gallon since one month ago. Still one of only three markets in Florida under $1.90/gal though.
http://www.fuelgaugereport.com/FLmetro.asp

And on the unemployment, Jax is actually under the state average not seasonally adjusted rate for Dec 08 (the latest available), 7.1 to 7.4
I didn't see the MSA seasonally adjusted figures in their release, only the state & national level on those that I could find.
http://www.floridajobs.org/publicati...2001-23-09.pdf

[Flasch186]

I noticed however no one else in this thread seems willing to be open minded. Not a single comment about Bernanke from anyone other than Sportsdino. Entrenchment anyone?

Perhaps it is my circle than....Ill have to do some anecdotal research wider than that in case it is just that that is skewing my vision. I dont think so however as Jobless claims hit their highest # since '82 (however not nearly as bad as '82) and no one thinks this is the top and continuing claims also hit a record while companies announce more impending layoffs. I still stand by my argument that impending inflation or a severe ratcheting up of it are not on the other side of this.

So on the one hand Jon points out great stats to back his stance I show ones that back mine. Which will be right? Not sure. Fore example, I say Tarp 1 worked because we avoided what I thought was coming in the Fall of last year however, like MBBF would do, because we avoided the fall fall some are going to say, "see we didnt need Tarp."

[miked]

Maybe I'm just a novice, but how are we having major deflation when the prices of most things keep going up? In the last few months, my gas has gone up, my utility costs have gone up (despite actually keeping my thermostat at 63), and the price of groceries seems to go up with less food in the packages. I understand that house values are going down, but is do houses count as goods?

I'm obviously no economist, but I have yet to see falling prices in anything except houses and cars, 2 things with no immediate value.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Flasch186

I noticed however no one else in this thread seems willing to be open minded. Not a single comment about Bernanke from anyone other than Sportsdino. Entrenchment anyone?

Not much to say about him yet. I think it takes a lot longer time to judge a fed chairman than other positions.

Saint Greenspan couldn't be touched for the longest time but now it turns out that maybe leaving the money supply open like an uncapped fire hydrant wasn't the greatest idea nor was relaxing every regulation and letting unfettered capitalism take its course as that only served those in power, not the greater good of the economy.

SI

[ISiddiqui]

And it isn't just Jacksonville, mind. The county showed a higher CPI than economists thought. In addition retail sales were higher than predicted for 2009 so far.

As for Bernanke, are we speaking of his thoughts on preventing inflation in the future?

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by miked

Maybe I'm just a novice, but how are we having major deflation when the prices of most things keep going up? In the last few months, my gas has gone up, my utility costs have gone up (despite actually keeping my thermostat at 63), and the price of groceries seems to go up with less food in the packages. I understand that house values are going down, but is do houses count as goods?

I'm obviously no economist, but I have yet to see falling prices in anything except houses and cars, 2 things with no immediate value.

And you bring up a very good point. If you subtract out housing, which is coming down from a massive bubble, the case for major deflation starts looking much less plausible.

[Flasch186]

Originally Posted by miked

Maybe I'm just a novice, but how are we having major deflation when the prices of most things keep going up? In the last few months, my gas has gone up, my utility costs have gone up (despite actually keeping my thermostat at 63), and the price of groceries seems to go up with less food in the packages. I understand that house values are going down, but is do houses count as goods?

I'm obviously no economist, but I have yet to see falling prices in anything except houses and cars, 2 things with no immediate value.

that's just not true though, McD's is lowering prices on stuff, Subway is, Coke is, etc. Most places are running larger and more frequent sales. You see it all around outside of food and energy costs (which trickle into groceries, etc.). I just asked my roomie and she said, in her life, she would say overall prices are going down on 'stuff.' Totally a grain of salt but meaningful in that it isn't just my brain coming up with it.

[Flasch186]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

And it isn't just Jacksonville, mind. The county showed a higher CPI than economists thought. In addition retail sales were higher than predicted for 2009 so far.

As for Bernanke, are we speaking of his thoughts on preventing inflation in the future?

Jacksonville is the county? Duval.

If youre including St. Johns and such that's a wide net....not necessarily unimportant but a wider net than perhaps the stats are meant to show combined.

[miked]

Originally Posted by Flasch186

that's just not true though, McD's is lowering prices on stuff, Subway is, Coke is, etc. You see it all around outside of food and energy costs (which trickle into groceries, etc.).

So because McDonalds is adding another tiny burger to their value meal, we are in deflation?? My coke costs the same in the stores, in fact, it's increased. All the vending machines have even increased about 25% in the past few months. I see "extras" with decreasing prices, like maybe some flat screens and other things that are superfluous, but in everything that counts, prices have gone up. Clothes (maybe the department stores are having more sales to boost revenues and business, but is that deflation?) are the same price.

I just don't get the deflation talk.

[Flasch186]

ok, I have to say, and it flies in the face of the inflation data above, that Im not seeing it (neither is my roomie). We are seeing prices dropping on most everything and yes, seeing companies unveil economized items at cheaper prices IS a DEFINITIVE commercial admittance to a deflationary environment, however temporary it may be or be expected to be.