2015-2016 Republican Primary Season - Trump Courts the Conservatives

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

A large part of why the US was able to sustain 3-4% economic growth before Obama was immigration.

Given the numbers posted above, isn't that an argument for more immigration?

[cartman]

Fiorina is out now as well

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I'd argue that a lot of people are fine with the concepts until it happens to them. At that point, it's a tyrannical government.

Or really, if there is even the threat that it might happen. I suspect many wouldn't mind because they figure that it realistically isn't ever going to happen, or if it does it might happen once in a blue moon (kinda like jury duty). Who's going to target the white guy?

[JPhillips]

Look at the whole airport search stuff. As long as it's happening to "them" it's okay, but taking pictures or touching my junk is the beginning of a revolt.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

How does he express anti-establishment? Ban on Muslim immigration. Deport all the Mexican rapists and drug dealers. Blame crime on blacks. Mock Asians. Stop being politically correct and blame the right people for America's downfall.

Look at the issues that motivate Trump voters. They are generally very clear about what they like about Trump.

Because he doesn't need to cater to the media. Doesn't need to cater to special interest groups. He's kind of the first candidate who can generate that stuff himself. And that allows him to get up and say things most candidates can't. And some of the stuff he has said may be uncomfortable to hear but it's the truth.

Not saying I agree with it but he's in a unique situation that other candidates aren't.

[RainMaker]

The privacy issue makes a hypocrite out of everyone. A nation that screams about privacy but can't wait to share the latest leaked nudes that come out. Don't want government snooping on our e-mails but if it happens to a Sony exec it's fair game.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Look at the whole airport search stuff. As long as it's happening to "them" it's okay, but taking pictures or touching my junk is the beginning of a revolt.

I love how the no fly list suddenly became an example of problematic government overreach when it was suggested that people on the list should be banned from owning guns.

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Given the numbers posted above, isn't that an argument for more immigration?

I think it is, as long as we have the jobs. And we always had jobs, until we sent our manufacturing jobs away. Now we're more a services economy, and technology is better at getting rid of those jobs than manufacturing jobs when labor costs increase.

I'm in favor of immigration levels in line with historical averages. But I'm selfish. I want law-abiding new citizens, and new citizens who are willing to learn English and contribute to our society. Enrich rather than separate.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I'd argue that a lot of people are fine with the concepts until it happens to them. At that point, it's a tyrannical government.

As long as you have the proper tyrant ...

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Given the numbers posted above, isn't that an argument for more immigration?

Shouldn't it depend on where the immigration is from? I never understood the complete open door policy on it. The Muslim world has an abhorrent record of how they treat women. Why so quick to move our culture more in that direction?

I know some people use this as a way to push racist views. But I also think others are in favor of protecting a culture that is superior to many of the countries that are sending immigrants.

There isn't a huge pushback against immigrants from Japan, Korea, and China. Maybe because their culture isn't as fucked and they thrive when immigrating to this country.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

I think it is, as long as we have the jobs. And we always had jobs, until we sent our manufacturing jobs away. Now we're more a services economy, and technology is better at getting rid of those jobs than manufacturing jobs when labor costs increase.

I'm in favor of immigration levels in line with historical averages. But I'm selfish. I want law-abiding new citizens, and new citizens who are willing to learn English and contribute to our society. Enrich rather than separate.

There's no evidence that current waves of immigrants are learning English any more slowly than past waves. Generally the first gen is native language, the second gen is bi-lingual and the third gen is almost exclusively English. That's the ways it's been for decades.

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

There's no evidence that current waves of immigrants are learning English any more slowly than past waves. Generally the first gen is native language, the second gen is bi-lingual and the third gen is almost exclusively English. That's the ways it's been for decades.

Young people learn languages quickly. That second gen was usually part of the initial immigration. I think we're shifting that back with our reluctance to insist that our Constitution is actually worth something. Equality works both ways. It's not a one-sided equation.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

There isn't a huge pushback against immigrants from Japan, Korea, and China. Maybe because their culture isn't as fucked and they thrive when immigrating to this country.

Percentage of terrorist attacks committed outside of Asia by natives of those named countries?

[cartman]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

Young people learn languages quickly. That second gen was usually part of the initial immigration. I think we're shifting that back with our reluctance to insist that our Constitution is actually worth something. Equality works both ways. It's not a one-sided equation.

The Constitution doesn't mention immigration, only that Congress has the power over Naturalization, and there is no mention of language either. Not really sure what you are trying to say with this post.

[AENeuman]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Shouldn't it depend on where the immigration is from? I never understood the complete open door policy on it. The Muslim world has an abhorrent record of how they treat women. Why so quick to move our culture more in that direction?

I know some people use this as a way to push racist views. But I also think others are in favor of protecting a culture that is superior to many of the countries that are sending immigrants.

There isn't a huge pushback against immigrants from Japan, Korea, and China. Maybe because their culture isn't as fucked and they thrive when immigrating to this country.

The hard part is nearly everyone who does use your sentiments as a way to push their racist views also say they do it to protect a culture that is superior.

By the way, what about India and their treatment of women? Perhaps the discretion we avoid in discriminating against those billion people could also be used on another group of a billion or so...

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Percentage of terrorist attacks committed outside of Asia by natives of those named countries?

I can't do a percentage, but the Chinese are particularly aggressive with cyber attacks.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

Young people learn languages quickly. That second gen was usually part of the initial immigration. I think we're shifting that back with our reluctance to insist that our Constitution is actually worth something. Equality works both ways. It's not a one-sided equation.

Do you have any data for that assertion? The data I can find says the opposite. Here's just one study.

Today's immigrants are learning English more quickly than the throngs of German-Americans who migrated to the United States more than 100 years ago, a new study concludes.

The report from the Journal of Transnational American Studies, first noted by Fusion, analyzes communities of German-Americans who lived in Wisconsin in the 1910s. Politicians have for years painted a mirror image of the study's findings, insisting that the prevalence of the Spanish language in American life is irregular and dangerous.

Researchers James Salmon of the University of Wisconsin and Miranda Wilkerson of Columbia University selected early German-speaking communities in Wisconsin and compared them to today's immigrant communities.

"[Today's rhetoric] seeks to portray non-English speakers in the U.S. as profoundly marginal along demographic, economic, geographic and social parameters," the study says. "In fact, many communities, including prototypical 'good old immigrants,' lived here for decades -- and in fact generations -- without learning English, like the Wisconsin German communities treated here."

Thirteen percent of residents exclusively spoke German in Hutisford, a small southern Wisconsin town. As late as the early 1930s, teachers in the region "could hardly speak English or spoke it grudgingly."

Today's immigrants are outperforming the communities Salmon and Wilkerson studied. According to Fusion, 92 percent of second generation Latinos living in the U.S. speak English "very well," and nearly all third-generation Latinos speak the language.

[Warhammer]

Originally Posted by AENeuman

For the life of me I don't know why this isn't a drug argument. I would absolutely be for a border that shuts everything down in order to prevent drugs from coming in. However, it's still about people. People who are not really coming in a the rate the fear and biased perceptions proclaim:

That is exactly where I sit with regards to this. Additionally, without being able to stem the flow of drugs, it's just a matter of time before a WMD of some sort gets in.

[Thomkal]

The floodgates have opened up here in South Carolina with political ads as we are the next stop on the train. I'm glad we have an early primary.

[dave731]

Ted Cruz AD Attacks Donald Trump FULL "Playing Trump" Ted Cruz Attack Ad Donald Trump eminent domain - YouTube

Trump action figure ad...lol

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by dave731

Ted Cruz AD Attacks Donald Trump FULL "Playing Trump" Ted Cruz Attack Ad Donald Trump eminent domain - YouTube

Trump action figure ad...lol

great day in the mornin'

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I can't do a percentage, but the Chinese are particularly aggressive with cyber attacks.

Maybe I'm just not techno-savvy but I don't believe they're required to have physical presence here to do that.

[EagleFan]

Sad thing is I would vote for that doll in the ad before I would vote for Cruz.

[Solecismic]

Studying the New Hampshire Primary, I ran some correlations to the 2012 Republican event. It's not necessarily meaningful, but it may bring some insight to how voters view the current candidates.

I'd say under 10% either way is pretty much scatter.

Newt Gingrich (9.4%)

Carson +16%, Rubio +12%, Fiorina +2%, Trump 0%, Kasich -1%, Christie -2%, Cruz -6%, Bush -7%.

Jon Huntsman (16.9%)

Kasich +57%, Bush +24%, Rubio +15%, Christie +11%, Fiorina +5%, Carson -4%, Cruz -23%, Trump -50%.

Ron Paul (22.9%)

Cruz +40%, Trump +35%, Carson +29%, Fiorina +11%, Bush -31%, Kasich -37%, Rubio -40%, Christie -41%.

Mitt Romney (39.3%)

Christie +39%, Rubio +27%, Bush +21%, Kasich +4%, Trump -6%, Fiorina -15%, Cruz -25%, Carson -35%.

Rick Santorum (9.4%)

Trump +25%, Cruz +23%, Carson +15%, Fiorina +4%, Rubio -19%, Kasich -22%, Bush -24%, Christie -28%.

[Easy Mac]

I'm like 10 feet away from Ben Carson, probably for the next 15 minutes. Anything you want me to ask him about.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Easy Mac

I'm like 10 feet away from Ben Carson, probably for the next 15 minutes. Anything you want me to ask him about.

If you see this person, tell her I said "hi," and perhaps you can get some dirt on me.

Deana Bass (@deana_bass) | Twitter

But do not believe her lies about what sort of driver I was in high school.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Easy Mac

I'm like 10 feet away from Ben Carson, probably for the next 15 minutes. Anything you want me to ask him about.

Nothing that wouldn't get you thrown out of there

[Easy Mac]

Will ask if they know Skydog and Carson's thoughts on patriotic undies... or just avoid making eye contact for 5 more minutes.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Easy Mac

Will ask if they know Skydog and Carson's thoughts on patriotic undies... or just avoid making eye contact for 5 more minutes.

Heh.

Back in the mid-80s, five days a week a beat-up '73 Nova driven by a high school kid hauled a three-person carpool from a working class black part of town to a fancy-dancy private school 12ish miles away. Depending on what specific school year we're talking about, the three of us would have comprised 33-50% of the black population at that school. One of them played in the NFL for 15 seasons. One is currently Ben Carson's National Press Secretary. The driver never did anything more fame-worthy than being a failed phone-a-friend on Who Wants To Be A Millionaire.

[Kodos]

You weren't phoned, or you answered them incorrectly?

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Kodos

You weren't phoned, or you answered them incorrectly?

I thought Ben was the 15-year NFL vet

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Kodos

You weren't phoned, or you answered them incorrectly?

Technically, neither. I didn't know, so I didn't give an answer. He kept the money and didn't answer.

Front Office Football Central - View Single Post - Audition to be on Millionaire

Oh, and one thing I didn't mention in that link: the dude who went to the Georgia-Auburn game and who would have gotten the call had he been available *did* know the answer. Those free tickets in the cheap seats cost Andres 125K, and me my pride and dignity.

[kcchief19]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Because he doesn't need to cater to the media. Doesn't need to cater to special interest groups. He's kind of the first candidate who can generate that stuff himself. And that allows him to get up and say things most candidates can't. And some of the stuff he has said may be uncomfortable to hear but it's the truth.

Not saying I agree with it but he's in a unique situation that other candidates aren't.

I'm not sure I agree with the concept he doesn't cater to the media. Assuming the FEC reports are accurate, Trump hasn't spent very much money. Almost all of his campaigning are large events with extensive media coverage. Everything Trump has is through earned media, not dropping a $36 million on TV ads like Jeb. He's entire campaign is media based.

He does cater to the media, just differently than what most candidates do. He generally gives them exactly what they want, which is a great show and lots of red meat. It absolutely is a WWE event. His campaign events are scripted (with generous adlibbing) and play to the cameras. Charlie Pierce had a great piece about going to Trump events and the fact that they are virtually identical, with set pieces were he rails against the media, immigrants, Muslims, Ted Cruz or anything else to generate a response from the crowd. The media covers it because it's a show.

The one time he didn't cater to the media, it cost him. He shows up for the final debate in Iowa, and he probably wins or at the very least doesn't under perform his poll numbers so badly.

As long as the media keeps covering Trump, he wins. And the media keeps covering him because he caters to them.

[kcchief19]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

{tips hat}

There IS however at least one other way for him to hurt himself: coming up with something new that leaves those intact but doesn't align well with them. Basically to find what I usually call a "third rail" and to jump up & down on it.

I concur with this and the notion that Trump is fine as long as he doesn't flip on a position. I don't think there are a whole lot of issues that Trump hasn't already converted to conservative positions except for maybe drug policy. Might be a wedge issue someone will launch at him at some point.

I still believe the thinking in most GOP candidate camps is that Trump can be beaten one-on-one, they just need to be the next-to-last man standing to win. I don't think they are particularly concerned about what Trump wins now, so long as they can whittle down the field as soon as possible.

That's what the Cruz camp is betting on. They don't care about Trump, they believe that after the SEC primary it will be a Trump-Cruz battle and they can win it. They probably can. Once there is a one-one-one battle, I think you're going to see a lot of wedge issues brought out designed to force Trump to endorse a position out of line with mainstream GOP values.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

I thought Ben was the 15-year NFL vet

That would be Strong.

[NobodyHere]

Jim Gilmore is out.

I remember Stephen Colbert pointing out that there were more people in Iowa named Jim Gilmore than there were people who voted for Jim Gilmore.

[Ryche]

I'm surprised no one has really pressed Trump on health care. His views are far to the left of other Republicans in the field.

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by Ryche

I'm surprised no one has really pressed Trump on health care. His views are far to the left of other Republicans in the field.

They were, at least. Are they still? His political views in general were well to the left of mainstream Republicanism even twenty years ago. It's still an open question whether he's playing the base for rubes to stroke his own ego or whether he's really had what would be a momentous change in political lean for his age.

I ain't saying it CAN'T happen, but major shifts in political ideology don't, as a rule, happen to people in their 50s and 60s. For Trump to genuinely go from a pretty lefty liberal in his late 40s/early 50s to...whatever he is now as his 70s approach would probably be an indicator of early onset dementia in most of the general population.

[JPhillips]

Isn't it like the quote I posted? I don't think he cares about policy. He has feelings about issues. Healthcare is too expensive, so he's for whatever makes his supporters feel better about that. That's the way he's playing every issue, and I don't necessarily think either these policies or his previous ones were insincere. He just doesn't care as long as it makes supporters feel better.

edit: and there's also this tweet that I think is very true:

"Fake conservative" isn't hurting Trump b/c much of the "conservative" base isn't; they just hate the other tribe.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

He just doesn't care as long as it makes supporters feel better.

Which is probably his most politician-like attribute.

[Ryche]

Originally Posted by SackAttack

They were, at least. Are they still? His political views in general were well to the left of mainstream Republicanism even twenty years ago. It's still an open question whether he's playing the base for rubes to stroke his own ego or whether he's really had what would be a momentous change in political lean for his age.

I ain't saying it CAN'T happen, but major shifts in political ideology don't, as a rule, happen to people in their 50s and 60s. For Trump to genuinely go from a pretty lefty liberal in his late 40s/early 50s to...whatever he is now as his 70s approach would probably be an indicator of early onset dementia in most of the general population.

Trump Pushes Single Payer Healthcare, Tax Increase on Wealthy - Breitbart

That was the story that makes me think he's left of most Republicans on this

[PilotMan]

Scalia just changed the game. Unless Obama gets someone else in there in his place.

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

Scalia just changed the game. Unless Obama gets someone else in there in his place.

We can't go a year without a 9th justice. Obama will pick someone moderate or himself.

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by Young Drachma

or himself.

Well now that would be interesting. Have been wondering what he's going to do in a year, though.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Young Drachma

We can't go a year without a 9th justice. Obama will pick someone moderate or himself.

GOP senators are already saying the next president should make the pick.

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

GOP senators are already saying the next president should make the pick.

Yeah they can keep saying that, but there's another 11 months before that happens. And no guarantee the clown car on their side wins. But it's obviously a good game to talk. They've obstructed for years, but I can't see them winning this fight. That said, this is probably going to do more for Clinton's campaign than anything did, because nobody wants Bernie Sanders picking the colors of a room, much less a Supreme Court justice.

[JonInMiddleGA]

I'll just copy & paste from my social media

I'm going to make a political prediction. I'm not saying I'm 100% on board with the prediction personally -- my vote is still unsettled -- and you don't have to like anything about the prediction, but I'm still going to put it out there:
If Ted Cruz manages to become the face of GOP opposition to seating any SCOTUS appointment by Obama & the effort is successful through the nomination process, he's the Republican nominee. Politically, he's been handed an opportunity to be not only the face of an issue but also to get a win on an issue. This is that big, it's a game-changer ... if he pulls it off.

edit to add: With great opportunity also, perhaps, comes great risk. If he does become that face & the failure is rapid, his candidacy is finished.

[cuervo72]

Waiting for Trump to throw something at Bush. Wonder how heavy those podiums are.

[Easy Mac]

Trump is making a giant mistake still going after Jeb so hard right now.

I think it was John Dickerson who said in slate that it would take a murder-suicide situation to narrow the field, I think Jeb might be willing to do that to Trump right now.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Easy Mac

Trump is making a giant mistake still going after Jeb so hard right now.

I think it was John Dickerson who said in slate that it would take a murder-suicide situation to narrow the field, I think Jeb might be willing to do that to Trump right now.

I think it was mistake for Trump to go after some of the GOP's sacred "truths" such as GWB keeping us safe.

On the other hand I think it's rather silly that Jeb is being so offended that someone was criticizing his brother. W was president, his policies and actions are fair game.