The Trump Presidency – 2016

[Lathum]

We have friends who own a brewery here on the Jersey Shore. They produced a limited edition stout called BLM and donate the proceeds to charity. My father in law loves stouts and was over tonight. We shared one with him and he loved it until we told him the name. He wasn't pleased but took it well.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Lathum

This is so disgusting. I need a shower. Late term abortions, socialism trojan horse, sanctuary cities, insane flat out lies.

Were you out of wet paint to watch dry? Hes unwatchable.

[Ksyrup]

Can't have mob rule, but The Mob can rule, that's just fine. Got it.

[Lathum]

Biden snags 'Keep America Great' domain in latest act of Trump trolling - POLITICO

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Biden snags 'Keep America Great' domain in latest act of Trump trolling - POLITICO

That's hilarious.

[JPhillips]

Senior WH official:

“everybody is going to catch this thing eventually.”

[Lathum]

My uncle is a doctor and told me the same thing in March

[Ksyrup]

Well yeah, I believe that too, if this is going to end up a seasonal virus like the flu. The trick is to limit the number of infections before we get it under control through hands-on learning and finding a vaccine that we can give to people annually. It's not to let it run its course through the entire country in 8-10 months to maximize the number of deaths it can cause. If I get it, I hope it's in 2024 where it's nothing more than another strain of flu I have to deal with - not as a potential life-ender/changer that I can spread to others and could kill them.

[Vegas Vic]

Senator Rand Paul and his wife were surrounded by a BLM mob last night after leaving the Republican convention, shouting profanities, death threats and "Say her name!" in reference to the Breonna Taylor shooting. The irony lost on these imbeciles is that Rand Paul introduced the "Justice for Breonna Taylor Act" in the senate, prohibiting the use of "no knock" warrants.

[PilotMan]

Rand Paul is still an opportunistic idiot.

[kingfc22]

Also, if Rand Paul wants to talk about being "attacked"...just remind him of the time he actually DID get his ass kicked.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/pol...ighbor-n839366

[ISiddiqui]

Well Trump got Jim Gaffigan of all people to go on a multi-tweet Twitter rant against the President. And it's glorious.

This is my fav:
https://twitter.com/JimGaffigan/stat...274011136?s=19

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk

[spleen1015]

Good for you Jim, but they still aren't going to listen.

[albionmoonlight]

Yup.

Jim is like so many of us.

We keep looking at that immovable 39% and we sort of know deep down that anything we do won't change them. But there's a part of you that thinks that if you keep screaming "The Sky is Blue!" at them enough, they might decide to look up and realize that it isn't Orange.

The only person who's public anti-Trump opinion might make a difference at this point is G.W. Bush, and I'm not even sure about that.

[sterlingice]

And, of course, never read the comments. The responses to him and the same part and parcel bs that always comes to a Tweet like this

SI

[kingfc22]

I think Jesus coming down from heaven himself wouldn't change people's minds at this point. It's that far gone.

[kingfc22]

This is fine. FDA ousts top spokesperson after 2 weeks - POLITICO

Miller’s ouster came one day after HHS officials canceled the contract of Wayne Pines, a consultant to Hahn who had advised him to walk back his inaccurate claims about convalescent plasma, said a person with direct knowledge of the matter. Hahn’s late-night mea culpa angered officials at HHS, and after discovering Pines had aided that decision, they severed his contract, the person said.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by kingfc22

I think Jesus coming down from heaven himself wouldn't change people's minds at this point. It's that far gone.

I dunno, this (mostly entertaining) blog argues that Trump may be the opposite:

(UPDATED) Could American Evangelicals Spot the Antichrist? Here Are the Biblical Predictions: - Benjamin L. Corey

SI

[Butter]

My wife like 90% believes that Trump is the Anti-Christ. She grew up heavily Southern Baptist and turned her back on the teachings of hate of others evident in that specific church. I think she is partially joking, mostly not. I'll have to share this.

[ISiddiqui]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/28/media...hes/index.html

About 21.6 million viewers watched coverage of Trump's RNC address across nine cable and broadcast networks, down from 23.6 million viewers who watched Biden's DNC address on the same nine networks.

LOL

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

Senator Rand Paul and his wife were surrounded by a BLM mob last night after leaving the Republican convention, shouting profanities, death threats and "Say her name!" in reference to the Breonna Taylor shooting. The irony lost on these imbeciles is that Rand Paul introduced the "Justice for Breonna Taylor Act" in the senate, prohibiting the use of "no knock" warrants.

Rand Paul is a pushy. These sacks of shit talk endless crap about people and then cry like a baby when someone dares do the same to them.

[Ksyrup]

My wife is currently talking to her parents (in their mid-late 70s). They live in Jacksonville. MIL said they watched the RNC last night and all they did was rave about the fireworks. So... yeah. They are solid Trump voters anyway, but that was the big takeaway for them last night. He's got his hand on their pocket and dangling shiny crap in their faces to distract them. Yeesh.

[GrantDawg]

I am far from a premillennialist, but from the time that I was (and I studied it heavily at one time), Trump is a good candidate for the Antichrist. Better than any I can think of.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

[JPhillips]

I don't believe in an anti-Christ, but if there were to be one, I think the Bible makes it clear that he'll trick believers. That's the warning, evil can be disguised in the ones that you follow closely. What's the point of saying, there will be an anti-Christ, but don't follow you'll be far too clever to be tricked by them?

[JPhillips]

dola

Everything's a con.

How that payroll tax break will work: IRS says companies have the responsibility to stop collecting some payroll taxes that would normally be due Sept. 1–Dec. 31. Then co’s must collect twice as much from workers’ paychecks early next year. @laurapdavisonhttps://t.co/ZmiIuRRR2a

— Jennifer Jacobs (@JenniferJJacobs) August 28, 2020

[Ksyrup]

Yes, that's the way it's designed to work - and Trump has said the only way you won't have to pay it back is to re-elect him because he's going to abolish the payroll tax next year. Which will also destroy social security, but who needs that?

[Vegas Vic]

Here's an interesting read on the "shy Trump voter" phenomenon. CloudResearch's study indicates that Republicans and independents are twice as likely as Democrats to say they would not give their true opinion in a telephone poll question about their preference for president in the 2020 election.

New Study Suggests Polls Are Missing Shy Trump Voters

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

Here's an interesting read on the "shy Trump voter" phenomenon. CloudResearch's study indicates that Republicans and independents are twice as likely as Democrats to say they would not give their true opinion in a telephone poll question about their preference for president in the 2020 election.

New Study Suggests Polls Are Missing Shy Trump Voters

That is interesting and actually equates to a margin of error close to how the election turned out from the polls.

The difference I see in 2016, it could have been an unwillingness to admit they were going to vote Trump, where now, I could see people doing it intentionally. Either to skew polls or because they think Trump voters are trying to be identified as part of some bizarre conspiracy.

[Atocep]

Overall polling and statistical models such as 538's have also changed since 2016 and the polls were about 2.5 points off in the GOP's favor during the 2018 midterms.

As I've mentioned, I don't doubt the shy Trump voter exists, I just doubt that it exists in a way that isn't largely captured by things such as turnout estimates that pollsters use. Polling doesn't stay the same from election to election. It changes as the electorate shifts and post 2016 changes were made to better capture the non-college educated white voter.

It's been stated a million times, but overall polling wasn't any further off in 2016 than it was in other elections. Polling was off at the state level for both Clinton and Trump in different ways. Clinton outperformed with non-whites and those with college degrees while Trump outperformed with whites without college degrees. This favored Trump in the electoral college as the close states ended up going his way. A similar scenario played out in Obama's favor in 2012, but it's never mentioned because Obama would have won anyway without the close states breaking his way.

[Ksyrup]

The conservative movement is totally lost. There's no way I go back to this crap, Trump or no Trump.

ASU student group College Republicans United is raising funds for Kenosha protest shooter Kyle Rittenhouse. The group told an @azcentral reporter “they do not speak to journalists with pronouns on their Twitter page" and to "get a real job.” https://t.co/U87WUCvqC3

— Rachel Leingang �� (@rachelleingang) August 29, 2020

[JPhillips]

The Director of National Intelligence isn't going to do any more in-person briefings to congress regarding election security.

[JPhillips]

The L.A. Times has a story of the USPS cutting off mail delivery for a public housing complex in L.A.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

The Director of National Intelligence isn't going to do any more in-person briefings to congress regarding election security.

Authoritarianism here we come!

[thesloppy]

So I've seen a couple articles talking about Trump's payroll tax exemption order as if it's a real thing that will happen and take effect as planned and on time, but seemingly every state ignored the $300 unemployment insurance boost order entirely....what's the difference?

[thesloppy]

Early reports are that someone has been shot in Portland as a group/rally of counter-protestors engaged with the protestors in downtown near the justice center.

Updated to shot and killed according to local news:

Rally, counterprotest turns deadly after shooting; investigation underway | KOIN.com

According to Twitter reports there was a rally of Trump supporters that drove downtown and engaged protestors, including shooting paintballs and pepper spray from their vehicles at protestors.

https://twitter.com/ByMikeBaker/stat...08467457622016

Edit/update: it appears the deceased was wearing a Patriot Prayer cap. This is going to be a fucking mess.

[BYU 14]

Quite honestly, I am surprised it took this long to happen in Portland. with the worst of both extremes, that city is sitting on a powder keg.

[HerRealName]

It looks like the deceased and his friend bear or pepper sprayed the shooter just before the shooting. Not sure if this counts as self defense but the shooter fled so at least they'll be able to charge him with something at least. Too many guns and these stand your ground laws are a terrible combination.

I'm not a big Facebook user but earlier this week a friend from high school shared a series of memes making fun of the shooting victims in Kenosha. I reported it, unfriended, and forgot about it. I got a notification this morning that my report was declined and no action taken. I guess it's ok to glorify violence on Facebook with memes that include graphic, bloody pictures. Feels like we're screwed as a country.

[Edward64]

I've not used FB in a while but I do sympathize with FB. Regardless of whatever they use (AI, a bunch of folks in India etc.), there's going to be much in the grey area or subjective or get into disagreement about fundamental 1A rights (although not government related).

Maybe implement a PG or R rating? Someone that posts explicit pictures, posts BLM stuff, posts militia stuff etc. Heck I don't even know how something like that could be implemented.

Or just tell people to unfriend where you don't like the poster's content, or some sort of anonymous rating to help with the PG or R rating.

[Lathum]

The less people on the right denounce acts of vigilantism the more we are going to see of it.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by HerRealName

Too many guns and these stand your ground laws are a terrible combination.

This. Once they took them out of the home, it became impossible to control. What do you do if you see a shooter when trying to stop them may result in a justifiable homicide? What are police supposed to do when armed people are shooting "legally"?

[Lathum]

Watch these Trumper Trucks! pic.twitter.com/PEE0Ttl1n9

— Just Vent (@JustVent6) August 30, 2020

[Lathum]

I may create a fake Twitter account for a made up pollster showing Trump is up by 8 points and see if I can get him to retweet it.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I may create a fake Twitter account for a made up pollster showing Trump is up by 8 points and see if I can get him to retweet it.

Would calling it "rASSmussen Polls" be too on the nose?

SI

[Vegas Vic]

A Pew Research Center poll published earlier this month demonstrates what's going on quite well. The poll had Biden up by 8 points over Trump, very similar to the average and the Ipsos poll discussed earlier.

Yet, the same poll found that Americans believed by a 51% to 46% margin that Trump would defeat Biden in the election. (Among voters, it was a tighter 50% to 48% spread in favor of Trump.)

The poll indicates that voters either believe the race will shift back to Trump or that the polling is wrong.

Interestingly, the poll was self administered via the internet without live interviewers, so it's not like the voters who said they were voting for Biden had reason to give what they might perceive as the more socially desirable answer (i.e. not voting for Trump).

Despite this, some voters think the polling is off.

Another question getting at the idea of potentially hidden Trump voters shows something similar to the Pew poll. By a 5-point margin, voters in an August Fox News poll said they thought more of their neighbors were voting for Trump over Biden. Biden was ahead in the horserace by 7 points in the poll.

Trump continues to break the polling

[JPhillips]

That doesn't prove your point at all. There's a ton of residual fear from 2016 and that fear is being amplified by every Biden supporter that says, don't trust the polls. Without much more depth of questioning it's impossible to say what percentage of the gap in your numbers is shy Trump voters or what I'll call fear of 2016.

One of my problems with the idea that there are a large number of shy Trump voters is that we aren't seeing that reflected in other polling, not approval ratings, not issue polling, not GOP candidate polling. Then, when you look at 2018 there isn't evidence of there being big numbers of Trump supporters that weren't polled either.

Maybe it's happening, but right now the evidence for it is very thin.

As Enten says in your link:

The fact that the conventional wisdom was wrong in 2016 has clearly had a big effect on people's perceptions and not necessarily in a good way.
A plurality of Americans thought that the Republicans would hold onto the House in 2018, even as polling suggested otherwise. They were blown out.
Today, there seems to be a continued overcorrection of Trump's chances in 2020. Not only do more Americans than not think Trump will win, but the betting markets have Biden only as a nominal favorite.
None of these interpretations of the data are likely correct. Trump may very well defeat Biden, but it's not the most likely outcome.

[Bee]

Isn't a shy Trump voter an oxymoron?

[sterlingice]

What it seems to show is
1) People don't trust polls after they were "burned" in 2016
2) People are not quite sure how to quantify the increased voter suppression

SI

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by Bee

Isn't a shy Trump voter an oxymoron?

You mean the ones who only show their balls in private FB groups or in public to women or slightly built men? No, I think it's right on the nose.

[Ksyrup]

So now the "blockbuster" information (according to Clay Travis) about Covid actually causing only 6% of deaths is the newest "plandemic" argument. Meanwhile, anyone with half a brain understands that most people are dying with co-morbidities, and that Covid had clearly resulted in many people dying months/years before they would have without Covid. This has clearly been the baseline understanding for those who want to understand it. Just look at excess deaths and it's clear there is a cause-and-effect impact from Covid even if it's not the sole cause of death.

I just can't take the willful ignorance anymore.

[molson]

I think a lot of people are just assuming Trump will rig it and win somehow.

This is how we've been trained. Nothing matters, there's no consequences, Trump can do what he wants, nobody else can or wants to stop him.