07-21-2020, 08:53 AM | #25951 |
Death Herald
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Le stelle la notte sono grandi e luminose nel cuore profondo del Texas
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stolen from somewhere else regarding the protests in Portland:
Watching the Moms show up is like watching the arrival of the Elves in LOTR
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Thinkin' of a master plan 'Cuz ain't nuthin' but sweat inside my hand So I dig into my pocket, all my money is spent So I dig deeper but still comin' up with lint |
07-21-2020, 08:58 AM | #25952 | |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Dayton, OH
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Quote:
Take CA out of the equation and he won the popular vote. Yes, he won a number of rust belt states narrowly, but he did win them. He did that by appealing to and getting the rural areas excited. PA outside of Philly and Pittsburgh is Northern Alabama, and the same could be said of backwoods MI and MN. So. Illinois fits the category as well, but there are not enough people in the state to outweigh Cook County and the Chicago suburbs. Banking on the rural areas to bail you out when they are shrinking is a losing game long term. |
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07-21-2020, 09:05 AM | #25953 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Seven miles up
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and when you've made an ass of yourself for 3.5 years. There are plenty of people in those areas who won't support him again, simply because he's too much of an ass.
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07-21-2020, 09:09 AM | #25954 | |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: May 2002
Location: Prairie du Sac, WI
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Quote:
If we look at the three states that basically won it for Trump (Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin), Trump didn’t significantly outperform Romney in Michigan or Wisconsin. I don’t believe he energized the rural vote so much as people didn’t show up for Hillary. |
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07-21-2020, 09:19 AM | #25955 | |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: May 2006
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What's the point of taking CA out of the equation? How much would he have lost by if you take Texas, Tennessee, and Kentucky out of the equation - which have the combined population almost exactly as California?
Quote:
No, actually. The main problem Clinton had wasn't the rural areas, it was that she badly underperformed expectations in working-class suburbs, narrowly winning in areas that are traditionally strongly Democratic and decidedly not rural. For example in PA, if she had equaled Obama's performance in Scranton and Wilkes-Barre alone she would have easily won the state. On the late-deciders point, among people who decided their vote the week before the election Trump was +17 in Pennsylvania, +11 in Michigan, and +27!! in Wisconsin. Without that, he doesn't win any of those states. When you're excited and enthusiastic about a candidate, you don't wait until the final days of a campaign to make up your mind. Last edited by Brian Swartz : 07-21-2020 at 09:19 AM. |
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07-21-2020, 09:24 AM | #25956 |
This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off.
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: In Absentia
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The excitement level for either Trump or Clinton should have been non-existent in this country.
__________________
M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete." |
07-21-2020, 09:38 AM | #25957 | |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2013
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Quote:
I feel the same way about the Twilight movies.
__________________
"I am God's prophet, and I need an attorney" |
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07-21-2020, 09:45 AM | #25958 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Georgia
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Quote:
This is a pretty strong argument that the Comey announcement won it for Trump.
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07-21-2020, 09:48 AM | #25959 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Puyallup, WA
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Quote:
There's also going to be very few late deciders in this election and while the enthusiasm to vote for Biden isn't exactly stellar the enthusiasm to vote against Trump is off the charts. Last edited by Atocep : 07-21-2020 at 09:48 AM. |
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07-21-2020, 09:51 AM | #25960 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Puyallup, WA
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I haven't seen anyone not wearing a mask in this area, but I do see way too many the pull their mask down to have a conversation.
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07-21-2020, 09:58 AM | #25961 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Newburgh, NY
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The OH Speaker of the House was arrested today by the Feds on a 60 million! dollar bribe scheme.
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To love someone is to strive to accept that person exactly the way he or she is, right here and now.. - Mr. Rogers Last edited by JPhillips : 07-21-2020 at 10:20 AM. |
07-21-2020, 10:00 AM | #25962 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Decatur, GA
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Quote:
Please continue to believe this. The Sanders folks did and Biden ate Bernie's lunch and blew him out of the water.
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"A prayer for the wild at heart, kept in cages" -Tennessee Williams |
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07-21-2020, 10:33 AM | #25963 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Georgia
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One bad sign for Trump is the primary numbers show Biden more popular in areas where Trump beat Clinton. I looked at Wisconsin data. The three biggest counties Trump won in 2016 are Racine, Outagamie, and Winnebago.
Racine 2016 General: Trump +4 2012 General: Obama +3.5 2020 Primary: Biden +38 2016 Primary: Sanders +2 Outagamie 2016 General: Trump +12.5 2012 General: Romney +2 2020 Primary: Biden +31 2016 Primary: Sanders +20 Winnebago 2016 General: Trump +7 2012 General: Obama +3.5 2020 Primary: Biden +30 2016 Primary: Sanders +23 As you can see, all three counties had 7.5+ swings towards Trump. All were won by Bernie in 2016. And all were won by Biden in a landslide in 2020. This is why Bernie overestimated his support and didn't think he needed to expand his base. Many of his primary wins were due to dislike of Clinton rather than huge support for Bernie. Biden doesn't have that same problem.
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07-21-2020, 10:42 AM | #25964 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Decatur, GA
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Quote:
And I'd argue Trump is doing the exact same thing Sanders did in the primaries. Mixing up dislike for Clinton for support for himself.
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"A prayer for the wild at heart, kept in cages" -Tennessee Williams |
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07-21-2020, 10:43 AM | #25965 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Surfside Beach,SC USA
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So Rep Ted Yoho (R-FL) accosted Rep Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on the steps of the Capitol yesterday calling her disgusting and a "F*&*ing B&*^h. She says she's never even spoken to him before.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/con...pitol-n1234465
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07-21-2020, 10:43 AM | #25966 | |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2013
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Quote:
This isn't exactly a high bar.
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"I am God's prophet, and I need an attorney" |
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07-21-2020, 10:51 AM | #25967 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: North Carolina
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Quote:
In fairness to him, she is a Hispanic woman who contradicts his negative stereotypes of both Hispanics and women. Her existence kind of undermines everything he believes in. You can see why he might be a tad upset. |
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07-21-2020, 11:08 AM | #25968 | |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: The Mountains
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Quote:
The fact that it was such a blowout, and that Sanders gracefully bowed out when he was cooked, has really muted the Bernie Bros this time around. I guess they're occupied with other things. But I remember when it was a pretty commonly held belief that the Democrats rigged the whole process for Biden. Remember the app in Iowa? It was a Democratic party conspiracy. Those people sure shut up as the results of the other states rolled in. The the idea Bernie Bros had in 2016 that there's no real different between Trump and a non-Bernie candidate also proved to be spectacularly wrong. AOC being more vocally supportive of Biden than Bernie was for Clinton helps too. If she and others like her are going to replace Bernie as the face of younger, far-left part of the Dem party, they'll be in much better shape. If the Dems can't win a blowout election this time around, or at lest a comfortable one, it will be the greatest of their many failures. Last edited by molson : 07-21-2020 at 11:18 AM. |
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07-21-2020, 11:30 AM | #25969 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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This is....staggeringly ignorant and criminal.
Missouri governor on kids getting coronavirus at school: 'They're going to get over it' | TheHill |
07-21-2020, 11:30 AM | #25970 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Decatur, GA
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Quote:
You still have the true believers on places like Twitter ("red rose Twitter" - who have, btw, even turned on Bernie), though yeah, I think some are chastened. I think AOC and Bernie going full on pro-Biden has helped (Bernie and Biden are pretty good friends as well IRL so Bernie's support is genuine)
__________________
"A prayer for the wild at heart, kept in cages" -Tennessee Williams |
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07-21-2020, 11:32 AM | #25971 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Decatur, GA
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The whole, they are going to go home and get over it.. um, does the Governor know that there tend to be older people at home?
__________________
"A prayer for the wild at heart, kept in cages" -Tennessee Williams |
07-21-2020, 11:45 AM | #25972 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: North Carolina
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Part of what's weird is that the messaging isn't "COVID is super serious and dangerous, but so is shutting down society and school, and in a world of bad choices, we think this is the least bad."
The messaging is that people who are worried about COVID are wrong. I think that the former message would turn off less people. |
07-21-2020, 11:48 AM | #25973 | |
High School Varsity
Join Date: Sep 2001
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Quote:
In addition to the domestic issues we face, there is also serious trouble brewing on the international front. Russia and China are becoming increasingly bold and aggressive. I just can't shake the feeling that there's a war coming. It'll start in Asia, then spread rapidly.
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I hate you evil! |
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07-21-2020, 11:49 AM | #25974 | |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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Quote:
Yet my right leaning facebook friends constantly go on about civility and treating Trump and other with more respect. |
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07-21-2020, 12:00 PM | #25975 | |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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Quote:
I can't fathom why the message "your kids will 100% get Covid in school" would, ya know, make people question if kids should go back to school. |
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07-21-2020, 12:02 PM | #25976 |
This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off.
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: In Absentia
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It's just blows my mind that people are so focused on how Covid can hurt them and not on the spread to others (both who it is spread to and if the spread becomes so pervasive that it overwhelms the system).
This is just a variation on the mask thing - "I don't need a mask because I'm not sick." "Kids will get it and recover because they are young and less susceptible." No concern or acknowledgement that people don't just get Covid in a vaccuum.
__________________
M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete." |
07-21-2020, 12:11 PM | #25977 | |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2013
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Quote:
I wouldn't be surprised if this was trumpian effort by Trump's campaign to draw attention to AOC, so later they'll tie Joe Biden to her far left ideology (ie a vote for Biden is a vote for socialism).
__________________
"I am God's prophet, and I need an attorney" |
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07-21-2020, 12:11 PM | #25978 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2013
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Or he's just an asshole.
__________________
"I am God's prophet, and I need an attorney" |
07-21-2020, 12:34 PM | #25979 |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Newbury, England
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It’s how the world has become: an increasing proportion of people just don’t give a shit about anyone but themselves
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'A song is a beautiful lie', Idlewild, Self Healer. When you're smiling, the whole world smiles with you. Sports! |
07-21-2020, 12:38 PM | #25980 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: May 2006
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I don't think people are getting worse; it's just not as hidden as it has been at some points in the past. There's still a lot of altruism and kindness around but it's always easier to focus in on the negative - i.e., we talk here about how bad it is that some people don't wear masks or don't care about kids getting COVID. Those who do care about those things pass unnoticed.
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07-21-2020, 12:45 PM | #25981 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: North Carolina
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Quote:
I will say that in my day-to-day life out now, people are all pretty much wearing masks when I go out. But that kind of kindness does not go viral on twitter like the people screaming at store clerks. |
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07-21-2020, 01:09 PM | #25982 | |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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Quote:
Nor should it. It's like rewarding people for wearing seatbelts or washing their hands after taking a shit. We shouldn't reward things you should be doing anyway, and it certainly isn't altruistic, that requires some level of sacrifice. |
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07-21-2020, 01:12 PM | #25983 | |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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Quote:
I went to the grocery store yesterday for the first time since March. Everyone but one person had on a mask, the one person looked to be a third party vendor of sorts. There were a handful of nose people and I wanted to scream in their faces. The more frustrating ones were the people who completely ignored the one way signs on the aisles. |
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07-21-2020, 01:16 PM | #25984 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Back in Houston!
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Quote:
I was a kid in the 80s so maybe take that decade out. But in the 90s, 00s, and 10s - I never felt a World War was even a possibility. I mean, was there some rando chance of someone accidentally launching missiles and triggering War Games? Sure. But not like a deliberately planned WW3. It feels like the pieces are falling into place now. Russia is emboldened and has already taken land in a way that seemed unfathomable for a while. China's fine with just playing the long game to do stuff in the South China Sea or places like Hong Kong. Even they've been tangling with India. Nationalism is on the rise across the globe in places as disparate as Brazil and Poland. It's not even that we're standing by and doing nothing about it, we're actively joining in. And that's a scary proposition. I have no idea what the time scale looks like. But I'm certain I don't want to see a World War in my lifetime. SI
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Houston Hippopotami, III.3: 20th Anniversary Thread - All former HT players are encouraged to check it out! Janos: "Only America could produce an imbecile of your caliber!" Freakazoid: "That's because we make lots of things better than other people!" Last edited by sterlingice : 07-21-2020 at 01:16 PM. |
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07-21-2020, 01:39 PM | #25985 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2005
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Quote:
I honestly don't think there will be a nuke Armageddon. The next "war" will be more of a technological (e.g. hacking) or economic war or lower intensity conflicts (e.g. war by proxy). All 3 are happening now albeit on different levels/scale. China worries me more than Russia. Compared to China, Russia is declining and we always have NATO, EU (what's left of them) to help as it's in their vested interest. With China, they are emerging and no one wants to confront them (much) because of the economic impact. |
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07-21-2020, 01:42 PM | #25986 | |
This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off.
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: In Absentia
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Well this seems to wrap up the Den Hollander/Salas attack pretty neatly:
Quote:
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M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete." |
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07-21-2020, 01:43 PM | #25987 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Back in Houston!
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Quote:
I've always assumed the idea that world powers have more to lose than to gain from a world war. I think that's still true. I'm not sure it will be true in the next couple of decades. SI
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Houston Hippopotami, III.3: 20th Anniversary Thread - All former HT players are encouraged to check it out! Janos: "Only America could produce an imbecile of your caliber!" Freakazoid: "That's because we make lots of things better than other people!" |
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07-21-2020, 01:47 PM | #25988 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: May 2006
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I'm with SI, except I think it will still be true for a while yet. There may come a point, particularly if we don't act more quickly with regards to climate change, that the incentives change.
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07-21-2020, 01:56 PM | #25989 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Behind Enemy Lines in Athens, GA
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Quote:
There were very few late deciders in the last one either (if by "late" you mean within 90 days of November). Assertions to the contrary fly completely opposite of any data I've seen on the subject since the election and smacks of revisionist history frankly. This election is already decided, same as the last one, all that matters is turnout.
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"I lit another cigarette. Unless I specifically inform you to the contrary, I am always lighting another cigarette." - from a novel by Martin Amis |
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07-21-2020, 02:01 PM | #25990 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Puyallup, WA
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Quote:
Data showed 13% of voters were still undecided on election day and 18.5% were undecided 100 days out. Both numbers were the highest since the '96 presidential election. |
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07-21-2020, 03:47 PM | #25991 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: May 2006
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Yep. The primary reason that fivethirtyeight was not as confident in the outcome as other pundits was the historically high number of undecideds, and they were talking about regularly through the runup to the vote. For example, here from October 25th .
Last edited by Brian Swartz : 07-21-2020 at 03:50 PM. |
07-21-2020, 04:36 PM | #25992 |
This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off.
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: In Absentia
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Glad to hear that on July 21st the Trump administration is "developing a strategy" to combat Covid-19.
__________________
M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete." |
07-21-2020, 04:52 PM | #25993 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Surfside Beach,SC USA
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Yeah I'm sure it won't have any questionable advice/miraculous cures in it
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Coastal Carolina Baseball-2016 National Champion! 10/17/20-Coastal Football ranked in Top 25 for first time! |
07-21-2020, 04:55 PM | #25994 | |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Newbury, England
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Quote:
It didn’t need one before because until yesterday it was a hoax. Now it’s not a hoax, beginning to develop a strategy within 24 hours is pretty damned impressive IMHO
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'A song is a beautiful lie', Idlewild, Self Healer. When you're smiling, the whole world smiles with you. Sports! |
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07-21-2020, 05:01 PM | #25995 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Surfside Beach,SC USA
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Quote:
I guess Chuck Woolery was the wake up call he needed.
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Coastal Carolina Baseball-2016 National Champion! 10/17/20-Coastal Football ranked in Top 25 for first time! |
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07-21-2020, 05:04 PM | #25996 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Newburgh, NY
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I wish her well.
Trump on Ghislaine Maxwell.
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To love someone is to strive to accept that person exactly the way he or she is, right here and now.. - Mr. Rogers |
07-21-2020, 05:21 PM | #25997 | |
Death Herald
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Le stelle la notte sono grandi e luminose nel cuore profondo del Texas
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.
Quote:
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Thinkin' of a master plan 'Cuz ain't nuthin' but sweat inside my hand So I dig into my pocket, all my money is spent So I dig deeper but still comin' up with lint |
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07-21-2020, 05:29 PM | #25998 |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: ...down the gravity well
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The Orange Shit gibbon was in rare form today.
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"General Woundwort's body was never found. It could be that he still lives his fierce life somewhere else, but from that day on, mother rabbits would tell their kittens that if they did not do as they were told, the General would get them. Such was Woundwort's monument, and perhaps it would not have displeased him." Watership Down, Richard Adams |
07-21-2020, 08:58 PM | #25999 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2005
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07-21-2020, 09:04 PM | #26000 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Pacific
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She is the link to a lot of people being thrown under the bus, I imagine. I dont doubt she "commits suicide" as well.
A lot of people are dirty in this Epstein case. And stuff tends to leak these days.
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