Who will (not should) be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2008?

[Buccaneer]

Originally Posted by Fighter of Foo

In fact I have. What are you insinuating?

History repeats itself. Atrocities (of all kinds) in the recent past (since WW2) committed against peoples domestic and foreign were commonplace, whether open or covert. It certainly does not make recent actions less intolerable but not exceptional. I wonder if they use Tiger Cages nowadays?

[Buccaneer]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I don't think Obama had anything to do with it, but the way Gary is playing out sure looks bad.

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I don't think Obama had anything to do with it, but the way Gary is playing out sure looks bad.

I think you're referring to vote stuffing? Or something? He's up 75-25 there and it looks like if the margins hold that he'll end up winning Indiana. He's within 20k of her now and it seems like the steam engine isn't going to be stopped. But they're saying those are just Gary numbers...so maybe it'll thin out and she'll squeak by.

[Young Drachma]

Clinton's lead has dwindled to less than 1% and the talk of Hillary as VP is beginning on TV. They are hand counting all of the early voting ballots right now in Lake County. CNN is trying to implicate that it's shady business, of course, and that it's Gary's fault. But the county is doing the counting.

Hillary has canceled her morning appearances.

[Scoobz0202]

Watching that CNN guy that stands in front of the big screen ask the Mayor of Gary questions is gold... pure gold.

[Radii]

The mayor of Lake County sounds like a complete moron on CNN. Watching this crap is painful.

[Young Drachma]

Of course, Union County hasn't reported any votes at all. No one lives there, but...I love how CNN is trying to spin it, while MSNBC is trying to change the conversation in a different manner.

CNN needs to get over it, because no one was asking what the questions were in New Mexico, Texas or other places. But I love how they're trying to spin it. So I'm done with them. It's too late to listen to this.

[Scoobz0202]

MAYOR FIGHT ON CNN! FUCK YEA!

[Scoobz0202]

DOLA-

"But its a computer."


god this is awesome.

[Young Drachma]

MSNBC's Chuck Todd is saying the real story is..that you have the Mayor of Hammond who is a Clinton supporter and the Mayor of Gary who is an Obama supporter who are duking it out to wait to see who'll release their remaining numbers first, to put their person over the top in the end.

That makes what's playing out on CNN make a lot more sense. MSNBC is calling Indiana for Clinton, but saying she's the "apparent winner".

[Scoobz0202]

Yeah, on CNN the Mayor of Hammond admitted that he was a Clinton supporter and the Mayor of Gary is an Obama supporter.

But damn, the Mayor of Hammond made the Mayor of Gary look like an absolute fucking moron.

[Vegas Vic]

Fox News has called Indiana for Clinton.

[Radii]

Originally Posted by Dark Cloud

Of course, Union County hasn't reported any votes at all. No one lives there, but...I love how CNN is trying to spin it, while MSNBC is trying to change the conversation in a different manner.

CNN needs to get over it, because no one was asking what the questions were in New Mexico, Texas or other places. But I love how they're trying to spin it. So I'm done with them. It's too late to listen to this.

Perhaps I didn't watch enough of the coverage, i probably watched about 1/2 hour, but my perception was that they weren't trying to spin anything, but that hey, you have the mayor of the biggest city in the county on the air with you, they seem like they're holding up or unnecessarily delaying releasing their voting results, he's giving a bullshit answer and stonewalling you when you ask what seems to me a fair question, so you press him on it. i never got the impression there was any intent to accuse of wrongdoing. Perhaps I didn't watch long enough, or perhaps i was so blown away by the stupidity of the mayor of Gary that I missed everything else though(I'm not being sarcastic here, I got so annoyed listening to him that I just turned the TV off for a few minutes and then turned it back on and continued watching).

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by Radii

Perhaps I didn't watch enough of the coverage, i probably watched about 1/2 hour, but my perception was that they weren't trying to spin anything, but that hey, you have the mayor of the biggest city in the county on the air with you, they seem like they're holding up or unnecessarily delaying releasing their voting results, he's giving a bullshit answer and stonewalling you when you ask what seems to me a fair question, so you press him on it. i never got the impression there was any intent to accuse of wrongdoing. Perhaps I didn't watch long enough, or perhaps i was so blown away by the stupidity of the mayor of Gary that I missed everything else though(I'm not being sarcastic here, I got so annoyed listening to him that I just turned the TV off for a few minutes and then turned it back on and continued watching).

When I was at the gym earlier, they had CNN's coverage on, and during the roundtable discussions, there was all kinds of spin coming from the moderator. I don't think any of it was really NEW - most of it was the lines the Clinton campaign has been trotting out there for a while, such as "she won the states Democrats have to win in November" - but it was evident they favored Senator Clinton.

[Radii]

Originally Posted by SackAttack

When I was at the gym earlier, they had CNN's coverage on, and during the roundtable discussions, there was all kinds of spin coming from the moderator. I don't think any of it was really NEW - most of it was the lines the Clinton campaign has been trotting out there for a while, such as "she won the states Democrats have to win in November" - but it was evident they favored Senator Clinton.

Oh, perhaps I completely misunderstood. I thought the thinking was that CNN was trying to create a corruption story, that something funny was going on in the county, not that they are having any sort of favorite here as far as the race goes.

[GrantDawg]

I'm having a hard time believing this might actually be over. Hope springs eternal...

[Young Drachma]

From the Lake County paper last night.

"Lake County Republican Chairman John Curley stood by his Democratic counterpart Rudy Clay as the nation waited for vote totals from Lake County. "There's no hanky panky going on," Curley said after members of the national media wondered why Lake County's votes were taking so much longer to count than the rest of the state. "We have more than 11,000 absentee ballots, far more than we've ever had before," Curley said, insisting it simply takes time to get through that many tallies.

The two party chairmen planned to meet at the government center at about 11 p.m., and Curley promised the vote totals would soon be released."

As far as it being over, some privately want it to go on past West Virginia, knowing that Hillary will win there, letting Obama go to Oregon to claim victory in a few weeks.

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

I'm having a hard time believing this might actually be over. Hope springs eternal...

It's been over for a couple of months. It's just that Hillary hasn't realized it.

For those who want Hillary to win, here is her roadmap:

Win every state left 75/25. Then have 58% of the remaining superdelegates vote for you.

If Obama simply splits the rest of the states up 50/50, Hillary would need 78% of the superdelegates to go her way. And if that happens, the dems will get their asses handed to them in the general election.

Nothing has changed. It's over. It's been over. it's just a matter of one candidate admitting it's over so the other one can start to focus on the general election as quickly as possible.

[Ksyrup]

I think she's in this until June 3rd, at least. She's got WV and KY coming up (OR she doesn't care about), both of which she is doing well in, and I bet she's holding out hope that she wins both and something miraculous/fishy occurs during the May 31st meeting to decide what to do with Florida and Michigan. At that point, even if things go badly, she might as well stick around for the last primary the following Tuesday.

The latest polls I can find on RCP for OR, KY, and WV show the following:

5/4 - OR - Obama 51, Clinton 39 (52 delegates) - Rasmussen
5/5 - WV - Clinton 56, Obama 27 (28 delegates) - Rasmussen
5/6 - KY - Clinton 62, Obama 28 (51 delegates) - Survey USA


I believe what's she counting on is the "shock and awe" of huge victories in KY and WV, some shenanigans involving FL and MI, and that all of that, coupled with the wins in IN and PA, as well as OH, etc., are what she is going to base her claim to being "more electable" on to the SuperDelegates. That's the only rationale I can see for her staying in it at this point.

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

I think she's in this until June 3rd, at least. She's got WV and KY coming up (OR she doesn't care about), both of which she is doing well in, and I bet she's holding out hope that she wins both and something miraculous/fishy occurs during the May 31st meeting to decide what to do with Florida and Michigan. At that point, even if things go badly, she might as well stick around for the last primary the following Tuesday.

The latest polls I can find on RCP for OR, KY, and WV show the following:

5/4 - OR - Obama 51, Clinton 39 (52 delegates) - Rasmussen
5/5 - WV - Clinton 56, Obama 27 (28 delegates) - Rasmussen
5/6 - KY - Clinton 62, Obama 28 (51 delegates) - Survey USA


I believe what's she counting on is the "shock and awe" of huge victories in KY and WV, some shenanigans involving FL and MI, and that all of that, coupled with the wins in IN and PA, as well as OH, etc., are what she is going to base her claim to being "more electable" on to the SuperDelegates. That's the only rationale I can see for her staying in it at this point.

The Supers have been her only hope for a long, long time.

The problem is that if the supers decide this when she's lost the popular vote, the state delegate vote and number of states. . . it'll be riot time in Denver, CO.

You are correct though. She's in this thing through June 3rd and probably through the convention. She's going to use a scorched earth campaign to do it too.

At this point, nobody needs to kid themselves. It's over. Obama will be the nominee. Obama's worst case scenario happened and he had a highly publicized scandal. And Hillary still can't make up any ground. He's not going to have another major slip up. Hillary is done. Now it's just a matter of her admitting her fate and moving on.

[path12]

Just judging by the demeanor of the Clinton advisors on the cable channels, I think what's going on now is the start of the behind-the-scene negotiations to find a way to end this while giving Clinton and her supporters a way to save face. I don't think that will be through a veep nomination, but could well include a way to include Fla and Mich.

[Fighter of Foo]

Originally Posted by TroyF

Hillary is done. Now it's just a matter of her admitting her fate and moving on.

Good luck waiting on that

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by Fighter of Foo

Good luck waiting on that

Doesn't matter to me in the least. I want her to stay in. I'm finding the entire process fascinating. I'm also eager to see how this plays out in the GE in November.

The best thing Hillary can do for the dems is to walk away. Of course that was also the best thing she could have done over a month ago.

Something tells me she doesn't have someone well versed in math on her staff. She really, really needs QS about now.

[st.cronin]

I don't think this is over, I still expect Clinton to actually win. Florida and Michigan, remember?

[JPhillips]

It's now to a point where you can include FL and MI as is and she'll still be unable to win popular vote or delegates.

[Ksyrup]

Clinton email from today:

Today, in every way that I know how, I am expressing my personal determination to keep forging forward in this campaign.

After our come-from-behind victory in Indiana, there are just 28 days of voting left. But we've never campaigned with the stakes as high or the time as short as they will be over the next four weeks.

And with you by my side, I'm going to keep fighting for what I believe in until every voter has had his or her say.

From the very beginning, you and I have counted on one another, working through every challenge and seizing every opportunity. That's not just the way our campaign works. That's the way America works.

As we enter the final four weeks of this contest, let's keep working our hearts out.

Contribute now to keep moving our campaign forward.

In six days, we have the chance to show our strength in West Virginia. If you'll stand with me, it's an opportunity I intend to make the most of.

There's no question about it -- we've got to make every one of these next 28 days count -- starting with today.

Contribute now, and let's keep winning together.

As we've told each other time and time again. There will be good days and not so good days in the course of this campaign. But there will never be a day that we can't count on one another.

As we enter the final 28 days of voting, I know you'll give it everything you've got. And you know I will do the same.

[Ksyrup]

McGovern Urges Clinton to Drop Out

Audio for this story will be available at approx. 3:00 p.m. ET

Day to Day, May 7, 2008 · Former senator and Democratic presidential candidate George McGovern is calling for Hillary Clinton to drop out of the Democratic presidential race. McGovern has decided to endorse Barack Obama. In doing so, McGovern becomes the first prominent Clinton supporter to call for Sen. Clinton to withdraw from the race.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

It's now to a point where you can include FL and MI as is and she'll still be unable to win popular vote or delegates.

Except, Florida and Michigan did not have normal turnout, so including them "as is" is not exactly legitimate, either. Clinton has a good case to make for the superdelegates.

[cmp]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Except, Florida and Michigan did not have normal turnout, so including them "as is" is not exactly legitimate, either. Clinton has a good case to make for the superdelegates.

Michigan shouldn't be included in any argument for her at all. Obama wasn't even on the ballot, makes it a much different situation than Florida.

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I don't think this is over, I still expect Clinton to actually win. Florida and Michigan, remember?

They won't seat them as is. she'll win a portion of delegates there, not all of them. The math still stands. She needs over 75% of the remaining delegates and then close to 60% of the supers to win. She's not going to get it. She'll win WV, KY and PR. She'll get her ass kicked hard in OR. She'll lose in SC. She'll have a tough time in Montana. Odds are, that's a 50/50 split in those six states. Let's say we revote in MI and FL and Hillary sweeps with 60% of the vote in both states. She gains 67 delegates. She would still need to win over 70% of the supers at that point.

The math is very, very easy here. It's over. It's all about when Hillary is going to accept/admit it's over.

[CamEdwards]

All of the reasons why Hillary can't win the nomination are just that... reasons, not rules. You can argue that Obama has better reasons why the delegates should ultimately nominate him on the first unpledged ballot, but there's absolutely no obligation for them to do so.

Ted Kennedy was down by more than 700 delegates, yet he went to the 1980convention vowing to fight on. Hillary will be a helluva lot closer than that.

I think she'll continue the race at least until at the DNC Rules Committee meets May 31st. That meeting should help determine what happens to the MI and FL delegates, and that should determine her course from June to August.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by TroyF

The math is very, very easy here. It's over. It's all about when Hillary is going to accept/admit it's over.

I thoroughly agree that to the extent this is about math, it's over.

I still believe that were there a concerted effort by the party leadership to coordinate voting of superdelegates, it would certainly be possible to send things in another direction. If Senator Obama were struck by raving madness and institutionalized tomorrow morning for electroshock therapy... we clearly wouldn't be talking about math any more. The system is designed to have a variety of latitudes involved... mostly to account for extraordinary circumstances, but there remains some opportunity for someone to make that case.

Please don't get me wrong... I think it's over too, I'm just saying that this process is (deliberately) not as simple as an election, where you just count the ballots and it's over.

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by CamEdwards

All of the reasons why Hillary can't win the nomination are just that... reasons, not rules. You can argue that Obama has better reasons why the delegates should ultimately nominate him on the first unpledged ballot, but there's absolutely no obligation for them to do so.

Ted Kennedy was down by more than 700 delegates, yet he went to the 1980convention vowing to fight on. Hillary will be a helluva lot closer than that.

I think she'll continue the race at least until at the DNC Rules Committee meets May 31st. That meeting should help determine what happens to the MI and FL delegates, and that should determine her course from June to August.

Please don't misinterpret my remarks here. Hillary can run as long as she wants. She also has a slim, slim shot of catching Obama. And while I think that could damage the dem prospects in November, most think I'm an idiot. I'm ok with that.

I'm just looking at reality Cam. She can fight as long as she wants. The race is over. No matter what the Hillary supporters want to think, she is not winning this battle. It's going to be Obama vs. McCain in November. (With the potential of a third party guy to jump in)

Barring Obama getting caught wiping his ass with an American Flag on a stolen web cam clip, she's not winning 75% of the remaining delegates at stake. It's not happening. The math was tough before Texas and PA. It's far worse than that now. There is no more race for the dem nomination.

PS: Watch all of the supers that switch this week. They may try to speed up the process.

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

I thoroughly agree that to the extent this is about math, it's over.

I still believe that were there a concerted effort by the party leadership to coordinate voting of superdelegates, it would certainly be possible to send things in another direction. If Senator Obama were struck by raving madness and institutionalized tomorrow morning for electroshock therapy... we clearly wouldn't be talking about math any more. The system is designed to have a variety of latitudes involved... mostly to account for extraordinary circumstances, but there remains some opportunity for someone to make that case.

Please don't get me wrong... I think it's over too, I'm just saying that this process is (deliberately) not as simple as an election, where you just count the ballots and it's over.

Don't disagree with you at all here QS. A disaster striking the Obama campaign has really been Hillary's only real hope for two months now. The Wright thing came and went and had little impact on the numbers. Lightning isn't going to strike twice here IMHO. If I end up wrong, I'll take the flak and eat the crow.

[Ksyrup]

I'm honestly baffled why the party is letting the Clintons run the show here. Part of Howard Dean's job should be to step in and put an end to this. Instead, a couple of weeks ago he comes out and essentially legitimizes Hillary's chances by saying "we'll see who comes out on top by June 3rd." My only thought is that so many people owe the Clintons so much for how far they've come since the 90s that they are letting them do whatever they want until the Clintons realize they can't go any further, and then they're going to pray the damage doesn't hurt their chances in November. Considering politics is all about stabbing people in the back, I'm still shocked that more people haven't pulled a Bill Richardson on them by now...even if the tide begins to turn that way within the next week.

[Ksyrup]

This seems oddly appropriate:

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by TroyF

They won't seat them as is.

TroyF is correct, and he was correct on his prior points.

The Democratic primary is over, and the general election is over. Fumbling the ball on two of the largest states in the country have ruined any chance the democrats had to take the White House in November. McCain has a substantial lead over Obama in Florida polling, and amazingly, Michigan is actually in play.

[chesapeake]

For the last couple of months, Obama has essentially been the nominee -- barring a complete meltdown. Well, for about 5 weeks, that meltdown was happening. As unbelieveable as it seemed, Obama, because he completely misplayed the Rev. Wright controversy, looked like he could blow this thing. But, last week, he finally cut the cord with the good reverend, and I think the fact that he almost won IN shows that he has found his footing again.

HRC has come too far to just quit less than a month from the finish line. So she'll run for another month and hope Obama hits the wall again and leaves the nomination to her.

Obama's zen really hurt him recently. But he has the ball back in his hands and he can run out the clock, so that same zen turns back into an asset.

[Fighter of Foo]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

McCain has a substantial lead over Obama in Florida polling, and amazingly, Michigan is actually in play.

Where the fcck are you getting this from???

[bronconick]

Electoral-vote.com has Obama up 2 on McCain in Michigan for a May 6 poll, and McCain up 1 in Florida from April 29.

Real Clear Politics has McCain up 9 on Obama in Florida, but they're using the April 29 poll, and an April 10 and March 15 poll as an average.

[chesapeake]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

The Democratic primary is over, and the general election is over. Fumbling the ball on two of the largest states in the country have ruined any chance the democrats had to take the White House in November. McCain has a substantial lead over Obama in Florida polling, and amazingly, Michigan is actually in play.

Crazy talk. It's May. John Kerry was the unquestioned next president of the United Staes in May. As was Al Gore.

Barring another Obama implosion, they'll come to an agreement before the convention to seat FL and MI delegates in some reasonable combination of HRC and Obama delegates. By the end of June, there will be no reason not to.

MI will be fine in the general election and FL will be competitive, even if it slightly favors the GOP as it has in recent years.

I think you are seriously underestimating several factors, among the most significant of which is money. The GOP and McCain are both seriously struggling to raise money. Both Obama and Clinton are burying McCain in fundraising, and I believe that Obama is millions ahead of McCain as it is in general election contributions. A lot of his supporters maxed out their contributions to him for both cycles.

Democratic Congressional candidates also will substantially outspend their Republican opponents this year, and that will play a role in voter turnout. Heck, in Virginia alone Mark Warner is going to spend about 4 million more than his opponent, even if he doesn't raise another dollar. That adds up.

McCain will lose this badly. The country is tired of the Bush policies on the war, the economy and the Constitution, and I don't beleive that voters will be as easily mislead by swift boats as they were in 2004. Obama is more vulnerable to those kinds of tactics than is Clinton, but I don't think that McCain will be as willing of an accomplice in these endeavors as was Bush.

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by chesapeake

Crazy talk. It's May. John Kerry was the unquestioned next president of the United Staes in May. As was Al Gore.

Yes, and you can actually go back farther than that. The one constant is that the Democrat's polling numbers peak in the spring. Obama and Clinton should be at least 15 points ahead of McCain in the national polls right now.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

Yes, and you can actually go back farther than that. The one constant is that the Democrat's polling numbers peak in the spring. Obama and Clinton should be at least 15 points ahead of McCain in the national polls right now.

Was that true when Clinton was in office?

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Was that true when Clinton was in office?

I'm not sure about the 96 numbers against Dole, and whether or not Perot had definitively announced for a 2nd run at this time in the election cycle.

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by bronconick

Electoral-vote.com has Obama up 2 on McCain in Michigan for a May 6 poll, and McCain up 1 in Florida from April 29.

Real Clear Politics has McCain up 9 on Obama in Florida, but they're using the April 29 poll, and an April 10 and March 15 poll as an average.

Electoral-vote.com is a joke, and I don't know how anyone who has seriously followed presidential elections over the years can take them seriously.

As for Florida, McCain has a good lead right now, but it's nothing compared to what he will enjoy after their delegates have been formally shut out of the nominating process. Michigan is probably a win for Obama in November, but the fact that he'll have to spend a lot of resources defending the state isn't a good thing for his campaign.

[Fighter of Foo]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

Yes, and you can actually go back farther than that. The one constant is that the Democrat's polling numbers peak in the spring. Obama and Clinton should be at least 15 points ahead of McCain in the national polls right now.

And where the fcck are you getting THIS from?

[JPhillips]

The unseated delegates won't be an issue. As I said above they can be seated as is now and it won't make a difference. If Hillary concedes in early June nobody is going to be thinking about unseated delegates come November. The only way this is an issue is if Hillary takes the nomination to the convention and if that happens the problems will be a whole lot bigger than FL and MI delegates.

[JPhillips]

Vic likes that one historical trend, but is so tied to seeing the Dems lose that he's unwilling to deal with the other historical trends working against McCain.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

The only way this is an issue is if Hillary takes the nomination to the convention and if that happens the problems will be a whole lot bigger than FL and MI delegates.

If she is really dead-set on trying to win this any way possible, she may very well do that, just in case something else comes up to bite Obama in the ass. The convention is 2.5 months after the last primary, right? That's a lot of time to sit around, and any point of weakness or, say, polls that show her running better against McCain than he is, will give her an argument to take to the convention.

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Vic likes that one historical trend, but is so tied to seeing the Dems lose that he's unwilling to deal with the other historical trends working against McCain.

Keep in mind, I was a wide eyed liberal when I was younger, just like most of you guys are right now. Actually, until 2006, I'd never voted for a republican candidate in my life.