04-15-2008, 10:44 AM | #2501 | |
College Prospect
Join Date: Apr 2008
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Quote:
I don't get this. Pass was going to get heat but you mention me first to look HARD at after I vote for him? Taz voted for Pass before me and Path voted for him as well. I think we can all agree that Pass is a strong suspect for today - are you trying to protect him? Because Pass still has the drugs and claphamsa is an expendable wolf who has already passed the item he had? |
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04-15-2008, 10:47 AM | #2502 |
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yesterday being day 3? or day 4? what day are we on now..... We need to make sure that Jackyl didnt just get the wrong days info, and that he really is lying.
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04-15-2008, 10:49 AM | #2503 |
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You mean the part where I mentioned that you more or less completely ignored the true crux of the day in order to not vote claphamsa initially (whereas now of course you will since it's shaping up as a runaway)? That part? Yeah, I'm not going to forget that should clap come back wolf. |
04-15-2008, 10:53 AM | #2504 | |
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No, I'm not protecting Pass. And had Jackal not come forward, I likely would have voted for him. What I'm saying is, you cast your vote for Pass without even considering Jackal's statement. This lends me to think that your thought was to try and push Pass up there as far as you could, in order to present at least another candidate in an effort to stop what we're seeing now (clap winning handily). Basically, if clap comes back wolf, I'm going to look very hard at anyone who shirked the issue altogether (you, Taz, path). If he comes back innocent, I'll be looking at Pass and Jackal (the one with the most to gain from a diversion and the one who supplied it) |
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04-15-2008, 10:54 AM | #2505 | |
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Are you theorizing that both are wolves then, with Jackal? I think that'd be a poor play on their part if it's true. Or are you saying you're worried because Pass has the drugs and may have lied about it and at the same time Jackal threw clap under the bus to curry favor? |
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04-15-2008, 10:56 AM | #2506 |
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Sonic, NTN, KWhit - What do you guys think? You guys have each kind of been on the down-low at some point in this game and I'd like to see what you think of this mess.
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04-15-2008, 11:08 AM | #2507 | |
Coordinator
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Quote:
Mr. Qwik, what worries me the most right now is that bolder wolf play suggests that they are closer to victory than we might think.
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04-15-2008, 11:09 AM | #2508 | |||
College Prospect
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Nicholasville, KY
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Quote:
False. I've explained my reasoning twice and it still makes sense to me: Quote:
Quote:
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04-15-2008, 11:11 AM | #2509 |
Pro Starter
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04-15-2008, 11:12 AM | #2510 | |
Coordinator
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Quote:
Heinz, do you have any particular reason to believe Jackal? Curious because his style seems somewhat different this game than in past ones.
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04-15-2008, 11:13 AM | #2511 | |
College Prospect
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Nicholasville, KY
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Quote:
I was reading the Cylon game a bit last night to try to understand some game mechanics and there were 5-7 Cylon / Cylon affiliated players. With 7 passengers gone and 15 remaining, if there are 5-7 wolves, we're at 2:1 (with 5) or nearing 1:1 (with 7) !! |
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04-15-2008, 11:14 AM | #2512 | |
Coordinator
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Quote:
Absolutely. And in case I am poisoned today, my suspect list currently is: Passacaglia Lathum Jackal ......probably in that order.
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04-15-2008, 11:16 AM | #2513 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Feb 2003
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Quote:
That game had a higher wolf count than most. But with the hidden mechanics in this game it's very possible that there could be more than usual here as well.......but Qwik's point is a good one, that we need to find one now.
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04-15-2008, 11:16 AM | #2514 | |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Feb 2006
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Quote:
I know you did, but after voting Pass. I read it as a blending in move. Vote the way you want, acknowledge and pick holes in the way you don't want. Then later come to Jesus, see the light and vote with the group once it looks like your initial horse was a loser. Classic wolf, IMO. Now, I'll admit, clap could be good, but the way, order and method in which you presented your dissention, is pinging a big-time wolf-dar should he be bad. If he's a passenger though, then I'll whole-heartedly ignore all of this and likely nudge you to "the good". |
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04-15-2008, 11:17 AM | #2515 | |
College Prospect
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Nicholasville, KY
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Quote:
From the last few posts, it feels like we definitely need to figure this issue out soon. |
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04-15-2008, 11:23 AM | #2516 | |
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I don't know if I do. What I'm basing my vote off is the following: 1) I see no inherent reason for him to make it up. If he did, then he's bad, and Pass likely is too (the only reasoning I can come up with is a diversion for Pass, like they need him to live another day somehow to do something sabotage-related) 2) I think whether clap is good or bad is almost moot at this point (well, to all but clap that is). Getting an answer on him should be more than worth the price of admission as far as figuring out what side some people are by taking this information and relating it to past votes. Heck, if anything, I probably can be painted in a bad light if clap is a wolf, so it's not like I'm being self-serving in that regard. 3) We gotta break some eggs. I think voting on the Pass lying/not-lying is really shirking the issue today. We lynch him and we find out about just him. We lynch clap, we find out a lot more, even if it costs us a passenger 4) I don't know how confident I am in us making it back to Miami. I figure best case, we leave Montego after today, we get delayed only 1 additional day in Haiti and that's it. Potentially, I could see us having 2-3 more days of delay (not counting today) ahead of us. If that's the case, we need to get some wolves ASAP. Style-wise, I'm not seeing it WRT Jackal. He's posting a lot, he was active a bit back, he seems to have reasons for slowing down a touch lately. What have you noticed? |
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04-15-2008, 11:24 AM | #2517 |
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04-15-2008, 11:28 AM | #2518 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Feb 2003
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Quote:
Well it's just based off of the few games we've played, but as a villager he seems far more analytical then he does this game. To me he's more tossing out things that may be valid or may be red herrings, whereas my impression is that he would normally dig into those things a bit deeper.
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04-15-2008, 11:30 AM | #2519 | |
College Prospect
Join Date: Apr 2008
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Quote:
That's close to my list, but I don't understand Heinz attacking me for you, Taz, and I seeing things the same way. Just because it's not the way he sees things? Heinz you've been on the other side of some of these close votes from me and maybe I'm figuring out why... I don't like voting against claphamsa, but it's just a gut thing. It seems that if we suspect the people above more then we should vote for one of them. However, I understand the logic behind "if not claphamsa then jackal", but I don't like doing the wolves a favor and making it 8-0 passengers dead if claphamsa is innocent. |
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04-15-2008, 11:32 AM | #2520 | |
Pro Starter
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Quote:
"Why did this have to be revealed...if true, then it gives the wolves a target...if it's false, then Olie is UTR. I just don't understand why something like this to be revealed at this time...and why waste it, if Jackal was fed false information, we're down two more passengers (I still am standing behind booting Clap)...but we've had questions concerning Mr. Pass, Jackal (not to be confused the band Jackyl with a Y) and some of Mr. Lathum's thought processes are very questionable... |
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04-15-2008, 11:33 AM | #2521 | |
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Quote:
Yeah, I can see that point. I have a hard time discerning that stuff once people start laying out that they're busy. I tend to just blindly take that and so I'm reading a lot of "Im busy but here's a quick note...etc" Probably foolish I know, but I'm a sucker. Either way though, I think Jackal at this point is also basically moot. His fate is essentially tied to the result on clap. If clap is bad, then Jackal gets pretty near COT for me (since there was someone to corroborate that he even talked to this chick at the bar, olie). If he's not, then you have to figure he made it up, so I'd vote him, then Pass or Olie (she theoretically could've been "in on it" from the get-go and there was never a blond for him to talk to) |
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04-15-2008, 11:36 AM | #2522 |
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"Look at some point we've all got to face the abyss and the non-votes, the ties (one of which was caused by Mr. Lathum) and the like have probably put us in the hole, I'm not sure claphamsa is 100% guilty, but we have to continue to unwaver in one suspect and go from there...the underground may have a headstart, it's up to us to catch up or at least start determining whether there is valdiation to certain stories."
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04-15-2008, 11:37 AM | #2523 | |
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Join Date: Feb 2006
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Quote:
I just don't think you three are truly voting on the task at hand. I'll admit, Pass very well could be a wolf, but I think you're putting the cart before the horse and being short-sighted as to which fork to persue really is the better method for the boat, long-term. And that's stating your intentions as a best-case, i.e. you're a passenger, way of light. The flip-side is that there is a nefarious reason that you three seemed to ignore a potential wolf caught dead in it's tracks (or a wolf who'll be dead via lying). |
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04-15-2008, 11:40 AM | #2524 | |
Pro Starter
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Location: ...down the gravity well
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Quote:
"This is the other question, were passengers recruited to the underground, or did they come on the ship initially...because the next problem is whether those that are telling the truth one day, aren't going to be spreading lies the next....I'm in the camp that maybe one or two passengers could be persuaded to the darkside of the things, you know like Darth Vader, but I'm thinking there was a underground team that came aboard the ship right from the start..." "That being said, I don't understand how Olie gets implicated other than being under the radar...this is really the first I've heard a passenger call on her virtue, other than Mr. Clap grasping at straws...very peculiar..." |
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04-15-2008, 11:46 AM | #2525 | ||
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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Quote:
Quote:
Still catching up but I wanted to respond to this. There is a difference between being wolfish and thinking outside the box. I am almost certain Path is a wolf and has been planting seeds to get me lynched since he saw an oppritunity. In response to what Qwik said about the wolves manipulating the vote that could be a good thing because then they out themselves. Pass will need to be lynched at some point, there is no way with the heat he is taking he will be killed by the wolves. I see no reason to not take the oppritunity to speed that process up a day. It is clear by the fact that Cronin was removed from the boat I have the ability to make this happen. You may not have to like my point, but you can't say it is illogical. |
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04-15-2008, 11:47 AM | #2526 | |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: non white trash MD
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Quote:
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04-15-2008, 11:49 AM | #2527 | |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Fresno, CA
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Quote:
Just to clarify, I don't think Olie is a wolf. I think Jackal's reveal that claphamsa is a wolf is true, and that he did talk to the blond and Olie saw him do it and we're all gravy there. But I do want to get it out there that if it turns out Jackal lied about all of this, then the person who corroborated his story, Olie, deserves a looking at as well. But that is far from the task at hand today, or even tomorrow, realistically, but it is worth mentioning. |
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04-15-2008, 11:49 AM | #2528 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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04-15-2008, 11:51 AM | #2529 |
Favored Bitch #1
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04-15-2008, 11:51 AM | #2530 | |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Feb 2006
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Quote:
So you're saying Path is aligned then with Clap as a wolf (since path isn't voting clap and doesn't believe Jackal)? As far as you and your ability, while I don't think your suggestion is an "evil" one perse, I do think that we need to get to the bottom of the Jackal/Clap nonsense, and since not even you seem all that confident you get to do it again I don't think it's worth us taking the risk and potentially opening ourselves up to late vote movement picking off a villager or getting a no-lynch. |
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04-15-2008, 11:53 AM | #2531 | |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: non white trash MD
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Quote:
fill us newer players in.... alan would send 3 woves up agasint 19 villegars?
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04-15-2008, 11:54 AM | #2532 | |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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Quote:
show me where I caused a tie, please |
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04-15-2008, 11:55 AM | #2533 | |
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I'd agree. I'd say we're looking at max max max 5 wolves right now. Realistically 3 or 4. So we're 10:5 (there are 15, not 16), 11:4 or 12:3 I think there will be enough delays to make a 12:3 situation winnable for the wolves if they work it, but I don't think they are necessarily "close" to winning. Even at 10:5, assuming 1 night-kill (and 1 lynchee each day) we can still afford 2 mis-lynches and win. I'd also say the fact that Anxiety was likely being honest when he was approached and declined (since he is/was a passenger) would help point to the fact that at least once, they've been unsuccessful in getting a convert. |
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04-15-2008, 11:56 AM | #2534 |
College Prospect
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04-15-2008, 11:57 AM | #2535 | |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Feb 2006
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Quote:
I think he actually sent 0 wolves or 1 wolf (to start) against the rest. But I also think the convertability odds are much higher this game. I'd bet that each night they have a chance at a forced conversion and/or an asked conversion (ala Anxiety) depending on the 0 or 1 initial wolves. If you look, the village wasn't allowed to win until after Day 4 (or on Day 4, I forget which), so the wolves definitely *started* this game shorthanded. My money is on 11:4 right now. |
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04-15-2008, 11:57 AM | #2536 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: non white trash MD
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Since im toast. ill fill in some info.... the item I purchased was a diary, i could use it to pass notes..... Im begining to think the person I passed it to may be a wolf......
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04-15-2008, 11:57 AM | #2537 | |
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Quote:
even if there are 5 wolves it would be 11-5, no where near close to over. Also has anyone else noticed the absence of a seer/ bodyguard, which leads me to believe there is a smaller number of wolves then we may think |
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04-15-2008, 11:58 AM | #2538 | |
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Quote:
interesting....
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04-15-2008, 11:59 AM | #2539 | |
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Quote:
my point is that if it is a runoff between Pass and Clap it is a win/ win either way, so any late manipulation of votes A. Wouldn't matter B. Wouldn't be worth the risk for the wolves |
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04-15-2008, 12:00 PM | #2540 |
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I guess for me, for those still on Pass (or voting Jackal and aren't claphamsa) I'd like to know the reasons why you think Jackal would lie.
I mean, of course, first and foremost we have to make some assumptions 1. He isn't a mis-informed villager somehow 2. He's a wolf himself and this is a 2-faction "instance" (relates to just the village and one other faction, though others may exist). Now if Jackal is a wolf and is lying here, it can't just be for the 1:1 trade-off of clap dying. That'd be a pretty bad wolf play and Jackal is too experienced to do that and/or he's playing with someone too experienced to recommend that. So, what then, would be the additional "gain" from the lie? - Diversion for Pass - Past vote counts would make current wolves look good if clap is innocent - They need the time to delay the ship more or convert more wolves (maybe they need more wolves to have a better shot at a forced conversion) Anything else? What scenarios do you folks see as his motivation? |
04-15-2008, 12:00 PM | #2541 |
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04-15-2008, 12:00 PM | #2542 |
Favored Bitch #1
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04-15-2008, 12:01 PM | #2543 | |
College Prospect
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Nicholasville, KY
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Quote:
I think we may have one... I've got a suspicion, but I obviously don't want to out them. |
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04-15-2008, 12:02 PM | #2544 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Feb 2003
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Quote:
I've got no problem with the idea that voting on clap will tell us a lot. I don't even have much of a problem with the idea of switching to him in order to ensure the lynch, as Qwik alludes to. However, you've already accused mccollins for switching his vote over. Why wouldn't I become just as suspect if I did?
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04-15-2008, 12:02 PM | #2545 | |
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I don't know if I'd quite go so far as to say it's a win-win. I think Clap is more likely a wolf than Pass, which ain't sayin' much, but I think the discrepancy in odds is enough that it isn't worth risking it. I'd rather Olie's sword sort that out for us and we save your possible power for a non-forced close vote if needed. |
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04-15-2008, 12:02 PM | #2546 |
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dola- another possibiliy is they are both wolves, the wolves knew they were probably going to lose eithe Pass or Clap today so they have the jackyl throw clap under the bus to gain trust.
I can see them doing this if clap is a brutal wolf. |
04-15-2008, 12:03 PM | #2547 | |
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Join Date: Dec 2001
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Quote:
does Ollie have the sword and can she kill someone with it? If so I say she offs Pass today |
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04-15-2008, 12:04 PM | #2548 | |
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Well, I guess the best way to answer that is, what's done is done. If clap comes up wolf, whether you switch or not, I'll likely still take a look at your past votes and dig in the heels a bit. A reluctance to get on-topic, in my mind, would only up the intensity on that. Does that make sense? |
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04-15-2008, 12:04 PM | #2549 |
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Join Date: Nov 2007
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I passed the diary to TAZ, I figured that since he was the shakespearean guy he was like a spy or somethign, so he must be fgood.... but he really ahsnt added anythign anywhere.... and its just as posible that hes been turned.
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04-15-2008, 12:04 PM | #2550 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
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dola- in case I turn up dead at some point look at Path, he is playing his textbook wolf game.
And anyone who has played with me knows I always play a little off and my behavior always seems wolfish. |
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