Who will (not should) be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2008?

[Vegas Vic]

Exit polls show Obama winning NC by 12 and Clinton winning Indiana by 5. As noted before, the exit polls have consistently overrated Obama's actual vote totals, so we'll see if that trend continues tonight.

[JPhillips]

VV: Southern exit polls have tended to underestimate for Obama. The question is will the undecideds break for the winner as they have most of the election or will they break for Clinton as they have recently.

[Young Drachma]

The second after the polls closed in North Carolina, they called that state for Obama. He's still down by 26,000 or so votes in Indiana to her, only 3% of the results in Indianapolis and other cities are in, though.

[Young Drachma]

For comparison/contrast, here is a map of Indiana from the 2004 primary. Obviously wasn't as important as this one in terms of having to determine the outcome of things, but...still shows you how much higher turnout is this year compared to then.

[mrsimperless]

Hillary is winning the rural areas in Indiana pretty strongly right now, while in the bigger cities Obama seems to have a slight edge. It'll be a matter of if his edge in the cities is large enough and the turnouts in the cities high enough to give him a chance to pull it out. As of right now it's an uphill battle for him, which is nothing less than I expected from my fellow Hoosiers.

[Buccaneer]

You know, I bet the Clintons are cursing their bad luck. The year that they get all of their ducks in a row and run, is also the Year of the Obama. If she had gone up against the 7 Clowns of 2004, she would have won easily.

[Buccaneer]

Originally Posted by mrsimperless

Hillary is winning the rural areas in Indiana pretty strongly right now, while in the bigger cities Obama seems to have a slight edge. It'll be a matter of if his edge in the cities is large enough and the turnouts in the cities high enough to give him a chance to pull it out. As of right now it's an uphill battle for him, which is nothing less than I expected from my fellow Hoosiers.

Why the rolly-eye thing?

[mrsimperless]

Because this is conservative country. In the comments of our local paper we've even got admitted republicans who are crossing over and foregoing their own primary to vote Hillary on the dem side quoting some "Operation Chaos" mandate from Limbaugh. Not that it wouldn't have been a struggle for Obama regardless throughout the "heartland". I feel like most of the people I know have their heads in the right direction, but that when you get out into the country here people just don't seem to have a clue what is happening right in front of their faces.

I haven't completely given up hope yet, we'll see what happens.

[JPhillips]

Buc: Is it bad luck or is she simply not that great a campaigner?

[Buccaneer]

(CNN) — Just how badly is the Democratic Party divided?

According to the exit polls, half of Clinton's supporters in Indiana would not vote for Obama in a general election match up with John McCain. A third of Clinton voters said they would pick McCain over Obama, while 17 percent said they would not vote at all. Just 48 percent of Clinton supporters said they would back Obama in November.

Obama gets even less support from Clinton backers in North Carolina. There, only 45 percent of Clinton supporters said they would vote for Obama over McCain. Thirty-eight percent said they would vote for McCain while 12 percent said they would not vote.

Obama voters appear to be more willing to support Clinton in November. In Indiana, 59 percent of Obama backers said they'd vote for Clinton, and 70 percent of Obama backers in North Carolina said they'd support the New York Democrat.

CNN seems to bring this up every week or so. It really must be scary for the Dems if any of it holds true.

[JPhillips]

We'll see where this number is after the convention. Right now it's an easy threat. However, if even twenty percent vote for McCain it's going to be a problem.

[mrsimperless]

Originally Posted by Buccaneer

CNN seems to bring this up every week or so. It really must be scary for the Dems if any of it holds true.

Do you have similar numbers for how many of those who voted McCain today would cross over and vote dem come November in Obama vs. Clinton scenarios?

[CamEdwards]

Okay, I've gotta ask what the guy with the Ron Paul quote in his signature is doing rooting for Obama, who's about as un-libertarian as you can get.

[mrsimperless]

It's not about libertarianism vs. liberalism, its about patriotism vs. evil. I know plenty of liberal libertarians and libertarian liberals. Pretty much all of them are voting for Obama.

[Young Drachma]

Obama is doing fine with white independents and is getting consistent numbers of white Democrats, despite what the pundits will say. The numbers in Delaware County, Indiana are currently 53-47 for Clinton. It's supposedly a bellweather and it's at 93% reporting the last time I checked. But the fact that he's closing fast and with the way turnout is, past reports mean little to nothing at this point.

Indiana could break like Missouri did for him at the last minute, which would end this thing effectively and while his people are deliberately downplaying expectations, they privately have to be hoping for an upset here.

[CamEdwards]

Originally Posted by mrsimperless

It's not about libertarianism vs. liberalism, its about patriotism vs. evil. I know plenty of liberal libertarians and libertarian liberals. Pretty much all of them are voting for Obama.

Huh. And to think I always thought the converse of evil was good, not patriotism.

So why are your libertarian friends voting Obama?

[mrsimperless]

Originally Posted by CamEdwards

Huh. And to think I always thought the converse of evil was good, not patriotism.

So why are your libertarian friends voting Obama?

I would assume for the same reasons I am. I don't usually talk politics with my friends, although I do know how they tend to lean. But for some reason everyone has been wanting to talk about Obama lately.

[Buccaneer]

Originally Posted by CamEdwards

Huh. And to think I always thought the converse of evil was good, not patriotism.

So why are your libertarian friends voting Obama?

Small sample size.

[Young Drachma]

He already conceded Indiana to her in his speech tonight. And look at the crowd behind him that they put together strategically in North Carolina in his speech tonight...

I'm really interested to see how close Indiana ends up being. He's trying to change the language of this from being a "race" to coming to a close...interesting rhetoric. He needed a moment like this, because he hasn't had one in a long while.

[Vegas Vic]

In spite of his victory speech dogma, North Carolina will not be in play in the general election.

[mrsimperless]

He appears to be trouncing her in Marion County (Indianapolis). No clue why he would concede at this point. He has been steadily gaining ground all night.

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by mrsimperless

He appears to be trouncing her in Marion County (Indianapolis). No clue why he would concede at this point. He has been steadily gaining ground all night.

I think it's a trick. There is math that they could actually win Indiana and pull a Missouri here. But...I think they're tricking them into thinking they're going to win and then pull it out in the end. And to dampen expectations in this thing, if they lose as expected.

They fact that the exit polling haven't let them call this thing and that the trigger happy media are sitting on their hands, says something may be afoot.

But I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

[Young Drachma]

They really need to change the rhetoric of his stump speech. I know it's comfortable for him, but he needs to basically roll up his sleeves and tell these people that he's "going to work" for them. This "Yes We Can" shit doesn't resonate with the people he's trying to attract.

He's down 50,000 votes now. Seems like it'll be about a 15-25k difference when it's all said in done for Hillary, if the numbers hold up like they're falling now. But if Lake County breaks big for him, it could shift to be a much smaller margin of victory for her or even...the improbable upset.

[Vegas Vic]

North Carolina turned out to be very polarized. Obama got 92% of the black vote and Clinton got 60% of the white vote.

[Young Drachma]

Indiana is officially too close to call. The Obama folks think they are going to fall 10-15k too short. But they need about 55% of what's left on the board to pull off the upset. Still, none of these developments are good news for Camp Clinton.

[Buccaneer]

Originally Posted by Dark Cloud

Indiana is officially too close to call. The Obama folks think they are going to fall 10-15k too short. But they need about 55% of what's left on the board to pull off the upset. Still, none of these developments are good news for Camp Clinton.

Like Troy said a while back, it's the math. She needed to pull in 60% of the votes/delegates in each state after March 5(?) to have a chance.

[mrsimperless]

Still lots of votes to count in Hamilton and Lake counties, which would seem to maybe be his spots...

[mrsimperless]

Originally Posted by Buccaneer

Like Troy said a while back, it's the math. She needed to pull in 60% of the votes/delegates in each state after March 5(?) to have a chance.

Agreed, but the perception of "winning" can't be understated for him at this point, regardless of a proportionate delegate distribution.

[Buccaneer]

Originally Posted by mrsimperless

Still lots of votes to count in Hamilton and Lake counties, which would seem to maybe be his spots...

I assume Gary is in Lake, what city is in Hamilton?

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by Buccaneer

I assume Gary is in Lake, what city is in Hamilton?

Tippecanoe is where Purdue University is and only half the votes are in there and he's up 59-41. Hamilton is almost done at 90% of the vote in and he's up 60-40. It's suburban Indiana.

[Warhammer]

I am puzzled why would any type of libertarian lean towards Obama?

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by Warhammer

I am puzzled why would any type of libertarian lean towards Obama?

They're probably left-libertarian types, as opposed to the typical traditional libertarian who are usually right-leaning libertarians that we're all pretty familiar with.

[mrsimperless]

Some views from other professed libertarians who support Obama. Maybe Bucc would like to see us all kicked out.

hxxp://www.cato-at-liberty.org/2008/02/29/libertarians-for-obama/
hxxp://www.libertariansforobama.org/
hxxp://www.thelibertypapers.org/2008/01/27/libertarians-for-obama/
hxxp://www.joannemcneil.com/weblog/index.php?p=809
hxxp://delawarelibertarian.blogspot.com/2008/02/barack-obama-and-constitution-one.html
hxxp://lesowijs.wordpress.com/2008/02/18/can-we-get-a-libertarian-for-obama/

[Buccaneer]

Originally Posted by Dark Cloud

They're probably left-libertarian types, as opposed to the typical traditional libertarian who are usually right-leaning libertarians that we're all pretty familiar with.

Oh great. Here I have been advocating for years something other than the red/blue spectrum and they're trying to put libertarians into neat boxes.

[CamEdwards]

Man, phrases like anarcho-communists make my head hurt. Talk about identity politics.

[Buccaneer]

Originally Posted by mrsimperless

Some views from other professed libertarians who support Obama. Maybe Bucc would like to see us all kicked out.

hxxp://www.cato-at-liberty.org/2008/02/29/libertarians-for-obama/
hxxp://www.libertariansforobama.org/
hxxp://www.thelibertypapers.org/2008/01/27/libertarians-for-obama/
hxxp://www.joannemcneil.com/weblog/index.php?p=809
hxxp://delawarelibertarian.blogspot.com/2008/02/barack-obama-and-constitution-one.html
hxxp://lesowijs.wordpress.com/2008/02/18/can-we-get-a-libertarian-for-obama/

You tell me that the House and/or the Senate will go (R) and I will gladly vote for Obama. That's the essense of practical libertarianism at the federal level.

[Fighter of Foo]

Originally Posted by Buccaneer

You tell me that the House and/or the Senate will go (R) and I will gladly vote for Obama. That's the essense of practical libertarianism at the federal level.

I used to believe in the virtues of split party government too. Since the Dems are nothing more than Bush enablers, I've taken that to mean they agree with Bush and thus the theory is invalid. The Dems have no plans to impeach Bush, no plans of repealing the military commissions act and unanimously voted in the senate to condemn Iran, a country that's done fuck all to us. There's the whole Iraq thing too. The Republicans have brought all of this to the table. If that's not the antithesis of libertarianism I don't know what is.

Obama's statements regarding the lack of impeachment/accountability toward Bush et al for making war and his commitment to increasing the military-corporatist machine sicken me to no end, but there's little doubt he would be marginally better than Hillary or McCain. Their positions on the gas tax nonsense proves that.

My only decision is whether to vote Obama or not vote at all. Given the state I live in, I don't think it matters.

[JPhillips]

Buc: Take this as the gentle ribbing intended, but I sure don't recall you advocating for Kerry in 2004 or Gore in 2000.

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by Buccaneer

Oh great. Here I have been advocating for years something other than the red/blue spectrum and they're trying to put libertarians into neat boxes.

This isn't new, Bucc. This left-right split in the Libertarian spectrum has been around pretty much since the beginning.

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by CamEdwards

Man, phrases like anarcho-communists make my head hurt. Talk about identity politics.

anarcho-capitalists are even funnier. And just hang out with a few, that's an interesting dinner party.

[JPhillips]

It appears that Operation Chaos may be the deciding factor in Indiana. From Jon CHait:

One exit poll question asks Indiana voters who they would support in a Clinton-McCain contest. 17% of them say McCain. Of those voters, 41% say they would vote for McCain over Clinton. In other words, these voters, 7% of the Indiana electorate, voted for Clinton in the primary but have no intention of supporting her in the fall.

[mrsimperless]

Originally Posted by Fighter of Foo

I used to believe in the virtues of split party government too. Since the Dems are nothing more than Bush enablers, I've taken that to mean they agree with Bush and thus the theory is invalid. The Dems have no plans to impeach Bush, no plans of repealing the military commissions act and unanimously voted in the senate to condemn Iran, a country that's done fuck all to us. There's the whole Iraq thing too. The Republicans have brought all of this to the table. If that's not the antithesis of libertarianism I don't know what is.

Obama's statements regarding the lack of impeachment/accountability toward Bush et al for making war and his commitment to increasing the military-corporatist machine sicken me to no end, but there's little doubt he would be marginally better than Hillary or McCain. Their positions on the gas tax nonsense proves that.

My only decision is whether to vote Obama or not vote at all. Given the state I live in, I don't think it matters.

hxxp://www.consortiumnews.com/2008/041508.html

You can't expect him to actually come out and SAY something like that, regardless of what he may believe. By all appearances his is an intelligent person of integrity, which should be a job prerequisite anyway. I'm not aware of too many of those these days who don't think that the criminals should be sent to jail. Although most people will not come right out and say it.

[Buccaneer]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Buc: Take this as the gentle ribbing intended, but I sure don't recall you advocating for Kerry in 2004 or Gore in 2000.

For the same reason I would not vote for Clinton even if all of Congress were (R). Besides, I don't think anyone knew what the extent of a soild (R) would be in 2000. I believe I passed in 2004 because I certainly did not support Bush2 and disliked Kerry even less. Unlike those that in some incredulous way take what happens at the federal level in a personal way (like Foo), it becomes an interesting thing to watch power struggles and the contrast between rhetoric and realities. Also, it took the last 4 years for me to solidify and to articulate my libertarian stances, whereas before, I knew what I was feeling but really didn't understand it much (due to years of apathy).

[Fighter of Foo]

Originally Posted by mrsimperless

hxxp://www.consortiumnews.com/2008/041508.html

You can't expect him to actually come out and SAY something like that, regardless of what he may believe. By all appearances his is an intelligent person of integrity, which should be a job prerequisite anyway. I'm not aware of too many of those these days who don't think that the criminals should be sent to jail. Although most people will not come right out and say it.

Your link contains the most telling Obama quote ever:

“I often get questions about impeachment at town hall meetings and I've said that is not something I think would be fruitful to pursue because I think that impeachment is something that should be reserved for exceptional circumstances,” Obama said.

I'm beyond appalled that he thinks or expects anyone else to think that "authorizing torture, ordering warrantless wiretaps, exposing CIA officer Valerie Plame’s identity, waging war under false pretenses and other abuses of executive powers," not to mention causing the death of over a million people is somehow not an exceptional circumstance.

[Fighter of Foo]

Originally Posted by Buccaneer

Unlike those that in some incredulous way take what happens at the federal level in a personal way (like Foo), it becomes an interesting thing to watch power struggles and the contrast between rhetoric and realities.

Apologies to everyone if I'm overly pissy about what MY government is doing in MY name with MY money. These threads tend to bring this stuff out.

[mrsimperless]

Originally Posted by Fighter of Foo

Your link contains the most telling Obama quote ever:

“I often get questions about impeachment at town hall meetings and I've said that is not something I think would be fruitful to pursue because I think that impeachment is something that should be reserved for exceptional circumstances,” Obama said.

I'm beyond appalled that he thinks or expects anyone else to think that "authorizing torture, ordering warrantless wiretaps, exposing CIA officer Valerie Plame’s identity, waging war under false pretenses and other abuses of executive powers," not to mention causing the death of over a million people is somehow not an exceptional circumstance.

Again, you need to read between the lines. He can't come out and say that right now without pissing off a lot of people that he needs to win the election, and yet he is leaving the door open. We already know it's not going to happen with Hillary.

[Buccaneer]

Foo, you haven't read much about the FDR, Truman, Ike, Kennedy and esp. LBJ and Nixon administrations, have you? Intolerable circumstance, yes, but exceptional? Hardly.

what MY government is doing in MY name with MY money.

It's funny that certain people (on both sides) want to act all libertarian, only when it justifies an oppositional position. But to extend that to other circumstances of federal powers, expenditures and unconstitutionalities? No way.

(unconstitutionalities. Is that a word?)

[Fighter of Foo]

Originally Posted by Buccaneer

Foo, you haven't read much about the FDR, Truman, Ike, Kennedy and esp. LBJ and Nixon administrations, have you? Intolerable circumstance, yes, but exceptional? Hardly.



It's funny that certain people (on both sides) want to act all libertarian, only when it justifies an oppositional position. But to extend that to other circumstances of federal powers, expenditures and unconstitutionalities? No way.

(unconstitutionalities. Is that a word?)

In fact I have. What are you insinuating?

[digamma]

This Lanny Wright guy or whatever his name is on CNN is a clown.

[JPhillips]

I don't think Obama had anything to do with it, but the way Gary is playing out sure looks bad.