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View Poll Results: Who will (not should) be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2008? | |||
Joe Biden | 0 | 0% | |
Hillary Clinton | 62 | 35.84% | |
Christopher Dodd | 0 | 0% | |
John Edwards | 10 | 5.78% | |
Mike Gravel | 1 | 0.58% | |
Dennis Kucinich | 2 | 1.16% | |
Barack Obama | 97 | 56.07% | |
Bill Richardson | 1 | 0.58% | |
Voters: 173. You may not vote on this poll |
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05-06-2008, 05:02 PM | #2451 |
Checkraising Tourists
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Exit polls show Obama winning NC by 12 and Clinton winning Indiana by 5. As noted before, the exit polls have consistently overrated Obama's actual vote totals, so we'll see if that trend continues tonight.
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05-06-2008, 05:38 PM | #2452 |
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VV: Southern exit polls have tended to underestimate for Obama. The question is will the undecideds break for the winner as they have most of the election or will they break for Clinton as they have recently.
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05-06-2008, 06:31 PM | #2453 |
Dark Cloud
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The second after the polls closed in North Carolina, they called that state for Obama. He's still down by 26,000 or so votes in Indiana to her, only 3% of the results in Indianapolis and other cities are in, though.
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05-06-2008, 06:42 PM | #2454 |
Dark Cloud
Join Date: Apr 2001
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For comparison/contrast, here is a map of Indiana from the 2004 primary. Obviously wasn't as important as this one in terms of having to determine the outcome of things, but...still shows you how much higher turnout is this year compared to then.
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05-06-2008, 06:55 PM | #2455 |
College Prospect
Join Date: Apr 2003
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Hillary is winning the rural areas in Indiana pretty strongly right now, while in the bigger cities Obama seems to have a slight edge. It'll be a matter of if his edge in the cities is large enough and the turnouts in the cities high enough to give him a chance to pull it out. As of right now it's an uphill battle for him, which is nothing less than I expected from my fellow Hoosiers.
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"All I know is that smart women are hot. Susan Polgar beat me in 24 moves in a simultaneous exhbition. I slept with the scoresheet under my pillow." Off some dude's web site. Last edited by mrsimperless : 05-06-2008 at 06:56 PM. |
05-06-2008, 07:04 PM | #2456 |
Head Coach
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You know, I bet the Clintons are cursing their bad luck. The year that they get all of their ducks in a row and run, is also the Year of the Obama. If she had gone up against the 7 Clowns of 2004, she would have won easily.
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05-06-2008, 07:06 PM | #2457 | |
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Quote:
Why the rolly-eye thing? |
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05-06-2008, 07:12 PM | #2458 |
College Prospect
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Because this is conservative country. In the comments of our local paper we've even got admitted republicans who are crossing over and foregoing their own primary to vote Hillary on the dem side quoting some "Operation Chaos" mandate from Limbaugh. Not that it wouldn't have been a struggle for Obama regardless throughout the "heartland". I feel like most of the people I know have their heads in the right direction, but that when you get out into the country here people just don't seem to have a clue what is happening right in front of their faces.
I haven't completely given up hope yet, we'll see what happens.
__________________
"All I know is that smart women are hot. Susan Polgar beat me in 24 moves in a simultaneous exhbition. I slept with the scoresheet under my pillow." Off some dude's web site. |
05-06-2008, 07:13 PM | #2459 |
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Buc: Is it bad luck or is she simply not that great a campaigner?
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05-06-2008, 07:17 PM | #2460 | |
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Quote:
CNN seems to bring this up every week or so. It really must be scary for the Dems if any of it holds true. |
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05-06-2008, 07:19 PM | #2461 |
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We'll see where this number is after the convention. Right now it's an easy threat. However, if even twenty percent vote for McCain it's going to be a problem.
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05-06-2008, 07:25 PM | #2462 | |
College Prospect
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Quote:
Do you have similar numbers for how many of those who voted McCain today would cross over and vote dem come November in Obama vs. Clinton scenarios?
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"All I know is that smart women are hot. Susan Polgar beat me in 24 moves in a simultaneous exhbition. I slept with the scoresheet under my pillow." Off some dude's web site. Last edited by mrsimperless : 05-06-2008 at 07:27 PM. |
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05-06-2008, 07:34 PM | #2463 |
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Okay, I've gotta ask what the guy with the Ron Paul quote in his signature is doing rooting for Obama, who's about as un-libertarian as you can get.
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05-06-2008, 07:38 PM | #2464 |
College Prospect
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It's not about libertarianism vs. liberalism, its about patriotism vs. evil. I know plenty of liberal libertarians and libertarian liberals. Pretty much all of them are voting for Obama.
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"All I know is that smart women are hot. Susan Polgar beat me in 24 moves in a simultaneous exhbition. I slept with the scoresheet under my pillow." Off some dude's web site. |
05-06-2008, 07:43 PM | #2465 |
Dark Cloud
Join Date: Apr 2001
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Obama is doing fine with white independents and is getting consistent numbers of white Democrats, despite what the pundits will say. The numbers in Delaware County, Indiana are currently 53-47 for Clinton. It's supposedly a bellweather and it's at 93% reporting the last time I checked. But the fact that he's closing fast and with the way turnout is, past reports mean little to nothing at this point.
Indiana could break like Missouri did for him at the last minute, which would end this thing effectively and while his people are deliberately downplaying expectations, they privately have to be hoping for an upset here. Last edited by Young Drachma : 05-06-2008 at 07:47 PM. |
05-06-2008, 07:51 PM | #2466 | |
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Huh. And to think I always thought the converse of evil was good, not patriotism. So why are your libertarian friends voting Obama?
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05-06-2008, 07:59 PM | #2467 | |
College Prospect
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Quote:
I would assume for the same reasons I am. I don't usually talk politics with my friends, although I do know how they tend to lean. But for some reason everyone has been wanting to talk about Obama lately.
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"All I know is that smart women are hot. Susan Polgar beat me in 24 moves in a simultaneous exhbition. I slept with the scoresheet under my pillow." Off some dude's web site. |
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05-06-2008, 08:03 PM | #2468 |
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05-06-2008, 08:14 PM | #2469 |
Dark Cloud
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He already conceded Indiana to her in his speech tonight. And look at the crowd behind him that they put together strategically in North Carolina in his speech tonight...
I'm really interested to see how close Indiana ends up being. He's trying to change the language of this from being a "race" to coming to a close...interesting rhetoric. He needed a moment like this, because he hasn't had one in a long while. Last edited by Young Drachma : 05-06-2008 at 08:16 PM. |
05-06-2008, 08:16 PM | #2470 |
Checkraising Tourists
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In spite of his victory speech dogma, North Carolina will not be in play in the general election.
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05-06-2008, 08:16 PM | #2471 |
College Prospect
Join Date: Apr 2003
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He appears to be trouncing her in Marion County (Indianapolis). No clue why he would concede at this point. He has been steadily gaining ground all night.
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"All I know is that smart women are hot. Susan Polgar beat me in 24 moves in a simultaneous exhbition. I slept with the scoresheet under my pillow." Off some dude's web site. |
05-06-2008, 08:19 PM | #2472 | |
Dark Cloud
Join Date: Apr 2001
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Quote:
I think it's a trick. There is math that they could actually win Indiana and pull a Missouri here. But...I think they're tricking them into thinking they're going to win and then pull it out in the end. And to dampen expectations in this thing, if they lose as expected. They fact that the exit polling haven't let them call this thing and that the trigger happy media are sitting on their hands, says something may be afoot. But I guess we'll just have to wait and see. Last edited by Young Drachma : 05-06-2008 at 08:19 PM. |
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05-06-2008, 08:24 PM | #2473 |
Dark Cloud
Join Date: Apr 2001
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They really need to change the rhetoric of his stump speech. I know it's comfortable for him, but he needs to basically roll up his sleeves and tell these people that he's "going to work" for them. This "Yes We Can" shit doesn't resonate with the people he's trying to attract.
He's down 50,000 votes now. Seems like it'll be about a 15-25k difference when it's all said in done for Hillary, if the numbers hold up like they're falling now. But if Lake County breaks big for him, it could shift to be a much smaller margin of victory for her or even...the improbable upset. Last edited by Young Drachma : 05-06-2008 at 08:26 PM. |
05-06-2008, 08:33 PM | #2474 |
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North Carolina turned out to be very polarized. Obama got 92% of the black vote and Clinton got 60% of the white vote.
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05-06-2008, 08:43 PM | #2475 |
Dark Cloud
Join Date: Apr 2001
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Indiana is officially too close to call. The Obama folks think they are going to fall 10-15k too short. But they need about 55% of what's left on the board to pull off the upset. Still, none of these developments are good news for Camp Clinton.
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05-06-2008, 08:45 PM | #2476 | |
Head Coach
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Quote:
Like Troy said a while back, it's the math. She needed to pull in 60% of the votes/delegates in each state after March 5(?) to have a chance. |
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05-06-2008, 08:46 PM | #2477 |
College Prospect
Join Date: Apr 2003
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Still lots of votes to count in Hamilton and Lake counties, which would seem to maybe be his spots...
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"All I know is that smart women are hot. Susan Polgar beat me in 24 moves in a simultaneous exhbition. I slept with the scoresheet under my pillow." Off some dude's web site. |
05-06-2008, 08:47 PM | #2478 | |
College Prospect
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Quote:
Agreed, but the perception of "winning" can't be understated for him at this point, regardless of a proportionate delegate distribution.
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"All I know is that smart women are hot. Susan Polgar beat me in 24 moves in a simultaneous exhbition. I slept with the scoresheet under my pillow." Off some dude's web site. |
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05-06-2008, 08:48 PM | #2479 |
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05-06-2008, 08:51 PM | #2480 |
Dark Cloud
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Tippecanoe is where Purdue University is and only half the votes are in there and he's up 59-41. Hamilton is almost done at 90% of the vote in and he's up 60-40. It's suburban Indiana. Last edited by Young Drachma : 05-06-2008 at 08:52 PM. |
05-06-2008, 08:52 PM | #2481 |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Dayton, OH
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I am puzzled why would any type of libertarian lean towards Obama?
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05-06-2008, 08:55 PM | #2482 | |
Dark Cloud
Join Date: Apr 2001
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Quote:
They're probably left-libertarian types, as opposed to the typical traditional libertarian who are usually right-leaning libertarians that we're all pretty familiar with. Last edited by Young Drachma : 05-06-2008 at 08:56 PM. |
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05-06-2008, 08:59 PM | #2483 |
College Prospect
Join Date: Apr 2003
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Some views from other professed libertarians who support Obama. Maybe Bucc would like to see us all kicked out.
hxxp://www.cato-at-liberty.org/2008/02/29/libertarians-for-obama/ hxxp://www.libertariansforobama.org/ hxxp://www.thelibertypapers.org/2008/01/27/libertarians-for-obama/ hxxp://www.joannemcneil.com/weblog/index.php?p=809 hxxp://delawarelibertarian.blogspot.com/2008/02/barack-obama-and-constitution-one.html hxxp://lesowijs.wordpress.com/2008/02/18/can-we-get-a-libertarian-for-obama/
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"All I know is that smart women are hot. Susan Polgar beat me in 24 moves in a simultaneous exhbition. I slept with the scoresheet under my pillow." Off some dude's web site. |
05-06-2008, 08:59 PM | #2484 | |
Head Coach
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Oh great. Here I have been advocating for years something other than the red/blue spectrum and they're trying to put libertarians into neat boxes. |
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05-06-2008, 09:00 PM | #2485 |
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Man, phrases like anarcho-communists make my head hurt. Talk about identity politics.
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05-06-2008, 09:02 PM | #2486 | |
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You tell me that the House and/or the Senate will go (R) and I will gladly vote for Obama. That's the essense of practical libertarianism at the federal level. |
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05-06-2008, 09:23 PM | #2487 | |
College Prospect
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Quote:
I used to believe in the virtues of split party government too. Since the Dems are nothing more than Bush enablers, I've taken that to mean they agree with Bush and thus the theory is invalid. The Dems have no plans to impeach Bush, no plans of repealing the military commissions act and unanimously voted in the senate to condemn Iran, a country that's done fuck all to us. There's the whole Iraq thing too. The Republicans have brought all of this to the table. If that's not the antithesis of libertarianism I don't know what is. Obama's statements regarding the lack of impeachment/accountability toward Bush et al for making war and his commitment to increasing the military-corporatist machine sicken me to no end, but there's little doubt he would be marginally better than Hillary or McCain. Their positions on the gas tax nonsense proves that. My only decision is whether to vote Obama or not vote at all. Given the state I live in, I don't think it matters. Last edited by Fighter of Foo : 05-06-2008 at 09:24 PM. |
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05-06-2008, 09:27 PM | #2488 |
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Buc: Take this as the gentle ribbing intended, but I sure don't recall you advocating for Kerry in 2004 or Gore in 2000.
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05-06-2008, 09:30 PM | #2489 | |
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This isn't new, Bucc. This left-right split in the Libertarian spectrum has been around pretty much since the beginning. |
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05-06-2008, 09:31 PM | #2490 |
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05-06-2008, 09:37 PM | #2491 | |
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It appears that Operation Chaos may be the deciding factor in Indiana. From Jon CHait:
Quote:
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05-06-2008, 09:38 PM | #2492 | |
College Prospect
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hxxp://www.consortiumnews.com/2008/041508.html You can't expect him to actually come out and SAY something like that, regardless of what he may believe. By all appearances his is an intelligent person of integrity, which should be a job prerequisite anyway. I'm not aware of too many of those these days who don't think that the criminals should be sent to jail. Although most people will not come right out and say it.
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"All I know is that smart women are hot. Susan Polgar beat me in 24 moves in a simultaneous exhbition. I slept with the scoresheet under my pillow." Off some dude's web site. |
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05-06-2008, 09:57 PM | #2493 | |
Head Coach
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Quote:
For the same reason I would not vote for Clinton even if all of Congress were (R). Besides, I don't think anyone knew what the extent of a soild (R) would be in 2000. I believe I passed in 2004 because I certainly did not support Bush2 and disliked Kerry even less. Unlike those that in some incredulous way take what happens at the federal level in a personal way (like Foo), it becomes an interesting thing to watch power struggles and the contrast between rhetoric and realities. Also, it took the last 4 years for me to solidify and to articulate my libertarian stances, whereas before, I knew what I was feeling but really didn't understand it much (due to years of apathy). |
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05-06-2008, 09:57 PM | #2494 | |
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Quote:
Your link contains the most telling Obama quote ever: “I often get questions about impeachment at town hall meetings and I've said that is not something I think would be fruitful to pursue because I think that impeachment is something that should be reserved for exceptional circumstances,” Obama said. I'm beyond appalled that he thinks or expects anyone else to think that "authorizing torture, ordering warrantless wiretaps, exposing CIA officer Valerie Plame’s identity, waging war under false pretenses and other abuses of executive powers," not to mention causing the death of over a million people is somehow not an exceptional circumstance. |
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05-06-2008, 10:00 PM | #2495 | |
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Apologies to everyone if I'm overly pissy about what MY government is doing in MY name with MY money. These threads tend to bring this stuff out. |
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05-06-2008, 10:00 PM | #2496 | |
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Again, you need to read between the lines. He can't come out and say that right now without pissing off a lot of people that he needs to win the election, and yet he is leaving the door open. We already know it's not going to happen with Hillary.
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"All I know is that smart women are hot. Susan Polgar beat me in 24 moves in a simultaneous exhbition. I slept with the scoresheet under my pillow." Off some dude's web site. |
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05-06-2008, 10:16 PM | #2497 | |
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Foo, you haven't read much about the FDR, Truman, Ike, Kennedy and esp. LBJ and Nixon administrations, have you? Intolerable circumstance, yes, but exceptional? Hardly.
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It's funny that certain people (on both sides) want to act all libertarian, only when it justifies an oppositional position. But to extend that to other circumstances of federal powers, expenditures and unconstitutionalities? No way. (unconstitutionalities. Is that a word?) |
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05-06-2008, 10:31 PM | #2498 | |
College Prospect
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In fact I have. What are you insinuating? |
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05-06-2008, 10:33 PM | #2499 |
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This Lanny Wright guy or whatever his name is on CNN is a clown.
Last edited by digamma : 05-06-2008 at 10:34 PM. |
05-06-2008, 10:42 PM | #2500 |
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I don't think Obama had anything to do with it, but the way Gary is playing out sure looks bad.
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