09-19-2005, 12:41 PM | #201 |
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The bad news is that once these long range forcasts start to move, they tend to keep moving. If it was supposed to hit west Texas and is now supposed to hit Houston, that means that it will probably hit to the East of Houston.
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09-19-2005, 12:48 PM | #202 |
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Ugly, but fairly true. Anything this far out is a guessing game, though the forecasts through 48-72 hours generally will be in the ballpark. It's the 96-120-hour forecast that keeps moving around. If I had to call a shot based on nothing but gut and general understanding of how these things tend to shake out, I think this will landfall somewhere in SW Louisiana or far east Texas right now. The problem with Katrina was that it moved SW out of Florida and then circled back north which is a rather unusual path for a storm. Most storms will go like Rita's going, a generally W-to-WNW track for some period of time until some weakness is reached in whatever ridge is steering it west and then it begins cycling towards the north.
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09-19-2005, 01:13 PM | #203 |
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09-19-2005, 01:26 PM | #204 | |
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I've gotta think that's an impossible situation, too. There just is no demand to move in to New Orleans so who may even buy it? SI
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09-19-2005, 02:04 PM | #205 | |
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Well, who knows what the real-estate markets are doing or will do long term, but I am hearing that in areas that did not flood, rental property is at an ultra-premium (500+ people on waiting lists for apartments). I imagine that home prices in non-flooded areas might experience a similar bump. There are less people who want to live in New Orleans than there were pre 8/29. But there is a LOT less space in which to put them. If EF27's friend's house stayed dry, she may be able to get a pretty penny for it. |
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09-19-2005, 02:06 PM | #206 | |
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That is what she is thinking as well. Her home stayed dry, and she thinks she will actually make a nice profit on it. I've also heard that it is going to be much more expensive for me to buy a home in New Orleans or LaPlace in the next year like I planned. However, as you point out, who knows what the market will do in a year or longer... |
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09-19-2005, 02:08 PM | #207 |
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Dola -
I'm also hearing that waiting lists are VERY long for apartments in the New Orleans, Baton Rouge, Lafayette, to a lesser extent the Shreveport area. I called dozens of apartment complexes in the Baton Rouge and Lafayette area a few weeks ago and was told they were all full, and I rented the last two apartments that were available at this complex in Shreveport. |
09-19-2005, 04:14 PM | #208 |
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5 PM EDT info is in. Rita remains a strong tropical storm, but an expected nudge upward in strength will make her a hurricane. She's still forecast to shoot the Florida Strait between the Keys and Cuba over the next bit.
No significant changes in base NHC forecast, though significantly the discussion mentions some of the models are moving back west again. The human doing the forecasting has decided that's more an affirmation of his prior forecast from 11 AM EDT so the forecast holds from six hours ago. This will put Rita onshore in the Houston/Galveston area by Saturday morning. The timeline to watch for anyone in SE Louisiana is to see whether any sort of turn is forecast to be made in the next 24-48 hours. It's due to be off Louisiana by Thursday or thereabouts and any hit on Louisiana by then will require the storm to begin turning northward by Wednesday at the latest. |
09-19-2005, 04:16 PM | #209 |
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Mayor Nagin under pressure from Bush and other officials has suspended the re-entry plan into New Orleans. He says that he is suspending the re-entry plan because of the threat of Rita and the weakened Levees and pumps.
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09-20-2005, 12:32 PM | #210 |
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I think the folks in Louisiana can start breathing a little easier right now. 11 AM discussion continues to forecast a mid-Texas coast landing and feels pretty confident about it with all the models lining up in that area. New Orleans is no longer in the margin of error cone and it looks like the storm will pass well south of the coast unless the ridge that Rita is passing south of over the next several days suddenly decides to break down. It'll still probably be a little blustery along the south Louisiana coast and the waves will probably kick up some as well, but that will likely be the extent of it in that area.
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09-20-2005, 12:36 PM | #211 |
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Yeah, I agree that at least the New Orleans metro area can start breathing easier. The interesting thing will be to see if Nagin resumes the repopulation plan in the next day or delays it further like federal officials seem to want. Personally, I want him to delay it until the water is at least safe to bath/shower with. Once that occurs, I want to return home.
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09-20-2005, 12:39 PM | #212 | |
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Quote:
I am really happy to have your insight here. Just curious, is weather a hobby of yours, or is this related to something that you do professionally? |
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09-20-2005, 12:51 PM | #213 |
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Just a hobby. Meteorology is likely what I could have (should have?) chosen to do if I hadn't decided better money was being made in computer programming. Being a map geek from as long as I can remember, my favorite part of any newscast was the weather, so not only did I indulge my interest in maps, I ended up understanding quite a bit of meteorology after a while. I find hurricanes to be the most fascinating of any storms, probably due to having grown up in North Carolina and having to deal with them every year (though I did live several hours from the coast). Therefore, I usually skip all the dull advisory stuff and just read the actual discussions that the NHC puts out. I get better insight than I could ever hope to get from anybody on TV because all they're doing on TV is parroting the NHC forecaster. They're mostly lying to you when they say "we think" because only a few of them actually are doing so, the rest are reading copy. If you read the actual discussion on the NHC site related to storms, you get an understanding of why forecasters are saying what they're saying, not just that they're saying it.
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09-20-2005, 02:08 PM | #214 |
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Apparently, NHC felt Rita's strengthening over the last several hours merited an updated discussion to go with their 2 PM advisory. Since it looks like New Orleans is no longer in the crosshairs, I've posted my translation of what they're thinking over in the Galveston thread for any that care to follow along.
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09-21-2005, 02:37 PM | #215 |
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My parents got back in the house this morning. They went on very short notice, so I wasn't able to fly in to help. There was about 5ft of water in the house, and our house is built about 5-6ft above the street level (and thus above sea level). Almost everything on the first floor is ruined, but a few random things were salvagable. For example, the cabinet with my parents wedding china had not moved (unlike all the other furniture), and everything in it appeared okay. The second floor is apparently fine. Although the only rooms up there are my sister's and my bedrooms. Since neither of us live there anymore, there wasn't much left. I should find out much more later today.
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09-21-2005, 08:32 PM | #216 |
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Well I am back down here. Weird walking into my parents house and seeing a stack of Meals Ready to Eat. Just tried one, they have gotten tastier over the years, the chemical ways of heating them up are kinda freaky.
Family isn't doing too well, my grandparents who lost their home in Waveland Miss have taken things badly, especially my grandmother. Shes gotten paranoid and won't stay with any family members. They took a car heading north to God knows where. The worst part is they are 85 and need to be around people that can help care for them. Hopefully they will realize that and come back south.... But despite that I am glad to be home, I'd much rather be in the thick of things than far away. |
09-21-2005, 10:08 PM | #217 |
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Tigercat and any of my fellow members from Louisiana:
Keep an eye on Rita as a few of the models have it hitting as far east as Morgan City with significant impact on SELA. Brad, the meteorologist from WWLTV now thinks that a South West LA hit is becoming much more likely. I just hope that prediction doesn't continue to shift east.
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09-21-2005, 10:36 PM | #218 | |
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Quote:
huh. Texas news is saying a Galveston strike is very likely. Guess it depends on where you are sitting. On top of that, Dallas could see 8-10 inches of rain if the Galveston thing comes to pass. Far cry from what will happen to the coast, but that's a big deal for this neck of the woods. |
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09-21-2005, 10:48 PM | #219 | |
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I'm guessing that each of the local meteorologists want to protect their areas. Brad (I can't remember his last name) the meteorologist from wwltv.com is saying there are many factors that he thinks are going to cause a signficant eastward shift of the track in the next 24-48 hours. I'm sure every official wants their area to be prepared.. |
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09-21-2005, 10:49 PM | #220 |
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Any amount of rain from rita wouldn't be fun right now, i have a roof with holes in it above me. Hopefully the corps of engineers people will be by to do the tarp fix it tomorrow, if not we are going to have to play roofers tomorrow afternoon.
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09-21-2005, 10:56 PM | #221 |
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Dola, I just saw a couple of models that have been run since 8pm, and they still have it safely in Texas for now. I haven't seen an update on the European model, which I find to be the most consistently close to accurate, but as of this morning it still had it landfalling well west of Houston even, hopefully that model is right this time around too.
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09-21-2005, 11:06 PM | #222 |
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Here is a copy of the pic that I was viewing with a bunch of the models (which I don't understand that well):
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09-21-2005, 11:08 PM | #223 |
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Dola -
Brad was discussing these models on wwltv's forum and said that the curves at the end are indicative of a great deal of uncertainty and that he is going to review these again tomorrow (he is flying into Baton Rouge to broadcast on wwltv's newscast tomorrow. Certainly, a great majority of the models predict a TX hit, but we in LA need to keep an eye on this still. |
09-22-2005, 01:13 AM | #224 |
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Here are the most recent models from wwltv (which only focuses on the major models.) Note that most of them have shifted to SW LA or right at the border between the states with one going further east
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09-22-2005, 09:55 AM | #225 |
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Looks to me like most of those are nailing Galveston and only one is on the TX/LA border...
Also, it seem like all the hurricane's that have come along Rita's path have somehow avoided Texas in the past...
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09-22-2005, 11:35 AM | #226 |
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I was extremely bleary eyed when I made my last post.
I've made a pledge to myself to not constantly watch this storm all day today and try to figure out where it is going. I'll pay attention to the 6 hour updates, but otherwise I'm going to try to relax. |
09-22-2005, 11:46 AM | #227 | |
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Quote:
(don't see any good movies out and have no idea what else there is to do where you're at so I stick with what I know) SI
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09-22-2005, 11:50 AM | #228 | |
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Thanks for the heads up for me to avoid ESPN. If I watch the Astros on TV they ALWAYS lose. I swear to god, it never fails...
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09-22-2005, 12:17 PM | #229 | |
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Baseball is a good answer, but my wife is insisting on us buying "just a few" storm supplies in case it hits Shreveport with some force left. However, I've found several gamespots with Madden for the PSP, and I'm buying that today. Hopefully, it will be fun and relaxing (as long as T.O or McNabb doesn't get hurt ) |
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09-22-2005, 12:21 PM | #230 | |
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Try a Saints franchise where they don't have to play a "home" game on national tv in New York SI
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09-22-2005, 12:23 PM | #231 |
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My parents, who left New Orleans because of Katrina, were staying with family in Lake Charles, La which is near the Tx/La border. Since Lake Charles is under a mandatory evacuation order, they had to evacuate from their original evacuation destination and are back in the metro New Orleans area.
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09-22-2005, 05:28 PM | #232 |
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I don't know if this is false info from trolls on wwltv's weather forum, but I don't believe it is. According to several different people, levees in St. Bernard and near the 9th ward are starting to "seep" and break again. This is without the storm even hitting yet I'm very afraid that parts of the city and surrounding area are going to flood again.
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09-22-2005, 05:44 PM | #233 |
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EF - Doesn't appear to be trollish, at least not entirely.
www.nola.com has a photo gallery titled Lower Ninth Ward Levee Seeping
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09-23-2005, 10:13 AM | #234 |
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Apparently the situation has gotten worse again. The levees are just too damaged to handle a 3-5 foot rise of the water in the lake.
Expires 3:45 PM CDT on September 23, 2005 Statement as of 9:52 AM CDT on September 23, 2005 The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... Orleans Parish in southeast Louisiana this includes the city of east New Orleans and lower ninth Ward St. Bernard Parish in southeast Louisiana this includes Arabi and Chalmette * until 345 PM CDT * at 948 am CDT... several reliable sources are reporting an overtopping of the levee on the Industrial canal between Claiborne Avenue and Florida Avenue. Those areas flooded during Hurricane Katrina will flood once again with 3 to 8 feet of water... mainly in the lower ninth Ward... Arabi and Chalmette. |
09-24-2005, 02:35 PM | #235 |
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My boss finally called me again. Apparently, I've been prohibited from working or volunteering due to contracts! Very annoying. Now, I have to report to Jackson, LA by Monday or Tuesday "at the latest if weather doesn't permit" me to be there on Monday to move into an apartment with 2 other male docs. I'll be running an inpatient unit for about 40 hours/week (the doc just quit that was running it.) I'll also be working at 3 shelters for 4 hours/night 2 days a week, and a mobile psychiatric crisis team 1 day a week for 8-10hrs/week. My wife can't come with me because of lack of housing at this point, and if I don't report, I lose my job. He told me that they are trying to procure additional housing for me and my wife but that may take a long time.
I want to go and help, but I'm annoyed at the prospect of being seperated from my wife by 250 miles for a potentially extended period of time.. |
09-24-2005, 02:41 PM | #236 |
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Dola -
I might be working at a Baton Rouge Mental Health Clinic for 1 to 2 nights/week as well.. |
09-24-2005, 02:42 PM | #237 | |
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Very shitty. I'll be praying that things work out for you soon. Now is not the time to be separated from loved ones. |
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09-28-2005, 09:22 PM | #238 |
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A few updates on New Orleans from today from another forum, fyi:
Went through CBD and French Quarter today French Quarter looks very good... in fact... I would say better than normal. With all the rain and few people the streets look clean. Very little traffic actually makes it a pleasant place to be. I did see people walking down bourbon street with drinks in hand about 4:00 today. Also, CBD took a hit but believe me things are rocking back pretty quickly. Buildings are operational for the most part... elevators, etc. Went to Energy Centre and tenants can get in from 10:00 to 2:00 and can say and work if they want to. According to bldg mgmt things should be back to normal in 1 to 2 weeks. Keep in mind there was no flood water there (and it is a little high up) but most of the buildings down there came out in great shape. Hyatt is still pretty bad but missing glass is replaced with plastic and plywood. So is the (was Texaco) building next to it. No water anywhere but parts of the lower 9th ward. Went by the Dome and was amazed by the water line. New Orleans will be back soon folks... don't get too comfy in Houston! ### Agree I was in the CBD today & toured 4 buildings. Worked at my office all day today in basically normal conditions. ### I took poydras exit (dome) drove through vieux carre and assume that the exit was open. No more checkpoints and you can get under the I-10 tracks at the split now. No exit between the split and poydras though (metairie road, carrolton etc) you gotta stay on till the CBD. No traffic lights at all so watch out for the Hummers, they are everywhere. |
09-29-2005, 04:11 PM | #239 |
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Not sure if this is the best place or not, but I guess so. Here is my update:
First the good: I was able to ride in the hospital van yesterday to my apartment which is on the hospital grounds. My apartment wasn't significantly damaged (an attic window broke and let in a bit of water, but nothing serious.) None of my stuff was looted or damaged! That is excellent. Now the bad news, my boss brought me here to Jackson Tuesday. He had no place for me to sleep. I slept on the floor (no mats, mattresses, or cots, or any other sleeping apparatus was available) of a cottage that has bugs crawling on it. Last night, I slept in a bed with actual bugs of some sort. I also had 3 other people in my room, and shared a bathroom with 12 plus people. I'm not getting paid for this until October since I'm still on special leave. I have no idea what I'm going to be doing, because my boss was talking out of his ass earlier. There is a possiblity that I won't even have a job in the near future with this institution as I'm one of their newest professors and they are scrambling to find jobs for all of their professors and I'm on the bottom of the totem pole. I've been offered jobs by several places, but I don't want to abandon my current job. However, I'm just not sure that I'm not going to get reemed by that very job. So, I'll be living in bad conditions for "3-5 weeks" 4-6 days a week with no guarantee that I won't be laid off in the near future... I'm just very frustrated, angry, and trying to prevent those feelings from affecting my patient care. Oh yeah, I still haven't gotten to do any real patient care other than helping with 1 code (for behaviour not breathing or heart problems) because of beaucratic red tape.... My "slot" of time on the dial-up internet is almost over. Hope to be heading home to my temporary apartment in Shreveport sometime tomorrow for a weekend break. |
09-29-2005, 04:13 PM | #240 |
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Just read my previous post (before the one I just made), and realize how many lies I was told. This isn't an apartment with 2 male docs, but 11 other staff of all jobs and both sexes..
Many other lies I was told too. |
09-29-2005, 08:22 PM | #241 |
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Take another job. Take it now.
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09-29-2005, 08:40 PM | #242 | |
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What he said. |
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09-30-2005, 10:06 AM | #243 |
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EF27, I love New Orleans as much as anything and want you to stay there and make it better, but you have to do what is right for you and your family.
Mrs. A. and I love it here in the Raleigh-Durham area. Many other parts of the country rock, too, and are in need of good doctors. |
09-30-2005, 12:03 PM | #244 |
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I was pissed and at my breaking point the other day. I went into my boss's office after he returned from a meeting in Baton Rouge. We had a long talk. I'm now back at my apartment in Shreveport after working last night. There is a good chance that I will be re-assigned to the first of the clinics to re-open in New Orleans as there are needs for clinics there with people starting to return to the city today.
However, I likely won't be able to return to my apartment in New Orleans as the military has taken over the area around my hospital (which I'm grateful for as that is probably a big part of the reason my stuff wasn't looted and I won't have to worry about it getting stolen in the near future..) I'm looking at a possible trailer in Baton Rouge and commuting into New Orleans, or possibly staying with my Mother-in-law in Metairie (which is just outside New Orleans.) As much as I dread the idea of living with my MIL for 4-6 weeks, either of those possiblities sound 1000 times better than going back to where I was (which is a place where criminally insane used to be housed long term and are still housed long term, but that is a whole another discussion..) There is a chance that I will have to return to horrendous hospital where I just drove from and live there another week as well until a clinic can be opened. My wife loves this city. She was born and raised in Metairie, and she doesn't want to leave it. I want to make her happy if I possibly can and I want to help rebuild this city, however, I will keep all options open.. |
09-30-2005, 12:54 PM | #245 |
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Dola -
One thing I forgot to post yesterday is that there is significant talk that either the military or much more likely the state may permeantly take over the hospital where I live. If that happens, I will be evicted and we will have no place to live as almost all of the apartment complexes in the state have a waiting list of 700-1000 people (from those I've called in the past day or so.) It could happen in a week, 2 weeks, a month, or not at all. Therefore, as much as my wife would hate it, we may have no choice but to move to either Shreveport or out of state. We are certainly holding onto our 2 bedroom apartment in Shreveport (which would never fit all of our stuff) until more information is available. The uncertainty about our living situation is very distressing to her, and somewhat distressing to me as well. |
10-02-2005, 09:47 PM | #246 |
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Double Dola -
I'm absolutely thrilled right now. My boss called and said that for at least tonight into tomorrow I don't have to go back to the horrendous hospital as he has enough doctors there, and really can't afford to pay me at that spot. In reality, I suspect he made it so I don't have to come back because he knew I was so miserable there. I would feel worse about talking my way out of that place, but I wasn't doing anything of real worth up there and I was living in terrible conditions. Instead, I reminded him of how much I want to be one of the first child psychiatrists to reset up in New Orleans. He is going to propose that I become the acting Chief of Child Psychiatry at Children's Hospital in New Orleans!!!! Children's Hospital is about to completely reopen, and they currently have no child psychiatrist working there (secondary to their old chief of child psychiatry leaving town because of the hurricane and temporarily relocating to Baton Rouge for at least the next several months until his place can be fixed.) I'd be the only Child Psychiatrist on staff and I'd have one resident working with me. It'd be long hours, hard work, including plenty of night call again, but I'd be in my own apartment with my wife!!! I just extended this apartment (in Shreveport) for another month, and I still run a real risk of losing my apartment in New Orleans on the hospital ground, but my wife is going to start looking for an apartment somewhere in the vicinity of New Orleans tomorrow and things are really looking up. I was becoming depressed myself, and this just significantly brightened my mood.
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10-02-2005, 10:53 PM | #247 | |
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Sounds like it would be a great and prestigious position for you. |
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10-02-2005, 11:26 PM | #248 |
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seriously EF, that's awesome news. Congratualtions! I hope you get the post.
as an aside, i think i might have mentioned before in a Katrina thread that my cousin's roommate's father is the COO of Charity, if that can be of ANY help to you at all, feel free to PM me and let me know, although it sounds like you're pretty well setup all things considered. |
10-02-2005, 11:37 PM | #249 | |
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Besides living in bad conditions in Jackson, LA in which I never felt like I was at home, none of the kids I was treating were evacuees. Thanks, DaddyTorgo, I appreciate the offer of help.
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10-03-2005, 02:28 AM | #250 |
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Acting Chief. Sincere toast to your efforts and station, whatever may come later. Well done, EF.
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