NFL Week 8

[BillJasper]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

How exactly would you calculate whether a team would be "better or worse" without their starting QB? I mean the top 5-10 QBs everyone knows are good, but what about under that?

That kind of falls under the heading of something you can't quantify with statistics.

[cartman]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

How exactly would you calculate whether a team would be "better or worse" without their starting QB? I mean the top 5-10 QBs everyone knows are good, but what about under that?

Originally Posted by BillJasper

That kind of falls under the heading of something you can't quantify with statistics.

If InjuredStartingQuarterback='Drew Blesdoe' then replacementQB = 'guy that puts up video game like numbers'

see: Tom Brady, Tony Romo

[BillJasper]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

I'm prefacing this with - I'm thinking out loud here. Probably more than a few holes in this.

Why not weight the rushing YPC like so:

( QB Rushing YPC * ( QB Rushing Yards / Team Rushing Yards ) ).

It'll effectively give almost no rushing points to pure pocket passers, but also cut heavily into the too-high rushing average points.

Basically..

( Passing YPA + TD% - INT% ) + ( ( Rushing YPA * ( Rushing Yards / Team Rushing Yards ) ) -- I'm also doing away with sacks here.

But you have to factor sacks in somewhere since they don't count against either rushing totals or YPA? I think that you'd also need to factor in percentage of throws that go for a 1st down?

[BillJasper]

Wouldn't you also need to weight any scale for teams that throw the ball more than others? Peyton Manning's and Phillip Rivers' 70 percent completion ratio shouldn't be counted equally. Manning gets almost no boost over Rivers because they have roughly equal YPA.

[Carman Bulldog]

I've come to the conclusion that we leave this to the gents at Football Outsiders, Advanced NFL Stats and Pro Football Focus.

[Coffee Warlord]

I don't like factoring in sacks into any QB rating system - it's very difficult to differentiate between sacks that are the QB's fault vs sacks that are the fault of the O-Line/etc.

[larrymcg421]

Even % of throws that go for a first down is misleading because a 9 yard pass on 1st and 10 is much more valuable than a 9 yard pass on 3rd and 10, but they'd be counted equally.

You really need to compare among down and distance situations. For example:

QB A has a strong running game helping him out, so he has more 2nd and short, 3rd and short, and fewer 3rd and long situations.

QB B has a weak running game and has more 2nd and long, 3rd and long situations.

If these two QB's end up with similar stats, then QB B is almost certainly better.

That's why I like Football Outsiders DYAR. If you look at the past rankings, QB's with poor running games often fare better than they do in other measures. Marino is a great example. In 1989 (one of the worst seasons of his career), he only put up a 76.9 QB rating and threw 22 INT's against only 24 TD's. Yet he is 6th in DYAR because he faced difficult situations far more frequently than the average QB. In 1997 when he only had an 80.7 QB rating, he was #1 in DYAR.

[BillJasper]

Maybe you just need to come up with a general rating that measures:

Total Yardage (Pass+Rush)

Total Negative Plays (Interceptions+Fumbles Lost+Sacks)

Total TD's (Pass + Rush)

Team Wins

The trick would be how to weight their importance.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by BillJasper

Maybe you just need to come up with a general rating that measures:

Total Yardage (Pass+Rush)

Total Negative Plays (Interceptions+Fumbles Lost+Sacks)

Total TD's (Pass + Rush)

Team Wins

The trick would be how to weight their importance.

If I was trying to come up with a rating system that was worse than the current QB Rating, then my first step would be to include Team Wins as a component.

[BillJasper]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

If I was trying to come up with a rating system that was worse than the current QB Rating, then my first step would be to include Team Wins as a component.

I don't think so. These guys are drafted highly and paid huge amounts of money based on club's thinking they are the most important piece of the puzzle.

I think wins would be an important piece in measuring the effectiveness of a QB.

Denver improved dramatically in the win column when they went from Tebow to Manning. Indianapolis was dramatically worse when they went from Manning to Painter, then got dramatically better going from Painter to Luck.

Like any statistic, it can fool you sometimes. But a team's overall success is usually (not always) directly related to the QB.

[Julio Riddols]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

If you really want to introduce rushing at your scale (where you start with YPA as a base), then maybe:

-only consider rushing that nets out better than an "average" rush (like 4ypc)

-cut back the weighting - 1 more YPC rushing is not worth 1 more YPA passing

-weight more for guys who rush more

How about:

= (YPC - 4.0) * Rushes Per Game / 15

So, you'd get (per game stats):

10 carries for 80 yards = pretty big deal rushing threat = +4.0
5 carries for 40 yards = limited but effective = +2.0
5 carries for 25 yards = modest rushing threat = +0.1
<4 yards per carry or lower impact than above = 0 (not negative)

I know it's not as simple, but it gets a lot closer to picking up actual added value, I think. *shurg*

Thats the direction I was heading with it.. Something in that realm to give real threats a lot more value than guys who only carry it a couple times a game and still average 6 or 7 a carry.

The thought process on including running is basically assuming that the other option on that play was an incomplete pass, which is always worth less than a gain of even one yard.. But it does make sense to weigh it so that QB's who make a big difference with their legs are the ones that get the real boost.

Lets see what happens when I re-run the numbers using the QS running formula and stats from last season. QB's with more than 300 pass attempts only. I also divided the final rushing bonus by 4 because otherwise Cam Newton got a bonus of more than 15.

Here's the new revised formula: (PassYPA+TD%)-(Sack%+INT%)
If a QB averages over 4 per carry rushing, I run this formula in addition:
(Rushatt/15)*(RushYPA-4.0) / 4.

Based on the numbers, the average qualifying QB in 2012 is a 3.5.

2012 (29 qualifiers)

Griffin: 10.4 (5.6 bonus for rushing) --> Team went 10-6 with the 22nd ranked scoring defense. (28th in yards)
Manning: 8.9 (Pocket passer) --> Team went 13-3 with no. 4 scoring defense. (2nd in yards)
Brees: 7.6 (Pocket Passer) --> Team went 7-9 with the 31st scoring defense in the league. (32nd in yards)
Brady: 7.5 (Pocket Passer) --> Team went 12-4 with 9th ranked scoring defense. (25th in yards)
Ryan: 6.3 (0.1 bonus for rushing) --> Team went 13-3 with 5th ranked scoring defense. (24th in yards)
Newton: 6.3 (3.8 bonus for rushing) --> Team went 7-9 with 18th ranked scoring defense. (10th in yards)
Wilson: 6.2 (1.9 bonus for rushing) --> Team went 11-5 with the top scoring defense. (4th in yards)
E.Manning:6.1 (Pocket passer) --> Went 9-7 with the 12th ranked scoring defense. (31st in yards)
Rodgers: 5.7 (0.7 bonus for rushing) --> Went 11-5 with the 11th ranked scoring defense. (11th in yards as well)
Roethlisberger: 5.0 (Pocket passer) --> Went 8-8 with the 6th scoring defense. (1st in yards) 5 losses by 3 points.
Freeman: 4.6 (Pocket passer) --> Went 7-9 with the 23rd ranked scoring defense. (29th in yards)
Schaub: 4.5 (Pocket passer) --> Went 12-4 with the 9th scoring defense. (7th in yards)
Palmer: 4.1 (Pocket passer) --> Went 4-12 with the 28th ranked scoring defense. (18th in yards)
Romo: 3.7 (Pocket Passer) --> Went 8-8 with the 24th ranked scoring defense. (19th in yards)
Stafford: 3.5 (Pocket passer) --> Went 4-12 with the 27th ranked scoring defense. (13th in yards)
Flacco: 3.2 (Pocket passer) --> Went 10-6 with the 12th ranked scoring defense. (17th in yards)
Fitzptrck:2.8 (0.1 bonus for rushing) --> Went 6-10 with the 26th ranked scoring defense. (22nd in yards)
Bradford: 2.1 (Pocket passer) --> Went 7-8-1 with the 14th ranked scoring defense. (14th in yards)
Luck: 1.8 (0.1 bonus for rushing) --> Went 11-5 with the 21st ranked scoring defense. (26th in yards) 6 wins by 4 or less against maybe the weakest schedule in the league.
Vick: 1.3 (1.4 bonus for rushing) --> Went 4-12 with the 29th ranked scoring defense. (15th in yards)
Locker: 1.3 (2.1 bonus for rushing) --> Went 6-10 with the 32nd ranked scoring defense. (27th in yards)
Ponder: 1.3 (0.2 bonus for rushing) --> Went 10-6 with the 14th ranked scoring defense. (16th in yards) Adrian Peterson
Dalton: 1.0 (Pocket passer) --> Went 10-6 with the 8th ranked scoring defense. (6th in yards)
Weeden: 0.8 (Pocket passer) --> Went 5-11 with the 19th ranked scoring defense. (23rd in yards)
Rivers: 0.4 (Pocket passer) --> Went 7-9 with the 16th ranked scoring defense. (9th in yards)
Cutler: 0.1 (Pocket passer) --> Went 10-6 with the 3rd ranked scoring defense. (5th in yards)
Tannehill:0.1 (0.2 bonus for rushing) --> Went 7-9 with the 7th ranked scoring defense. (21st in yards)
Henne: -1.5 (Pocket passer) --> Went 2-14 with the 28th ranked scoring defense. (30th in yards)
Sanchez: -1.7 (Pocket passer) --> Went 6-10 with the 20th ranked scoring defense. (8th in yards)

I think it looks pretty solid. Bad QB's with good defenses can make the playoffs, but usually don't go far. Great QB and bad defense is usually the same. They can get there, but winning in the post season will be tough for them. Flacco was average but had an above average defense and got incredibly hot in the playoffs. Prior to the playoffs beginning, most people thought Atlanta and Denver were two of the 3 most likely super bowl contenders, and they have the two best records here. San Fran didn't have any qualifying QB's, but both guys they had were great when they were in and their defense was 2nd in scoring and 3rd in yards.

The most interesting ones are Cam Newton and the Panthers and Christian Ponder and the Vikings. I think the Panthers can be explained by 4 close losses (within 4 points or in decided in overtime) and they kind of came together defensively toward the end of the year. The most likely explanation for Ponder and the Vikes is Adrian Peterson. He went on a tear the second half of the season.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

How about:

= (YPC - 4.0) * Rushes Per Game / 15

So, you'd get (per game stats):

10 carries for 80 yards = pretty big deal rushing threat = +4.0
5 carries for 40 yards = limited but effective = +2.0
5 carries for 25 yards = modest rushing threat = +0.1
<4 yards per carry or lower impact than above = 0 (not negative)

Originally Posted by Julio Riddols

Lets see what happens when I re-run the numbers using the QS running formula and stats from last season. QB's with more than 300 pass attempts only. I also divided the final rushing bonus by 4 because otherwise Cam Newton got a bonus of more than 15.

Here's the new revised formula: (PassYPA+TD%)-(Sack%+INT%)
If a QB averages over 4 per carry rushing, I run this formula in addition:
(Rushatt/15)*(RushYPA-4.0) / 4.

Hmm, are we out of sync on whether to use per-game stats or season total stats?

I see online last year's stats for Cam newton looking like this:

127 741 5.8

Under my calculations, I pencil that in as:

(~5.8 - 4.0) * (~8 / 15) = ~1.0

(Your value of 16 must be arising from you looking per season, and me looking per game)

Now, if you're not convinced that this is enough of a bonus for a rushing threat like Newton (and I might be), then I think the right order of magnitude might be to adjust my arbitrary denominator of 10 to something like 10, which would bump Newton's adjustment up to 1.5 or so.

I don't like it at 3.8 for that season. 5.8 yards per carry is fine, but it's not night and day different from what they get from handing the ball off to their reasonably capable backfield -- the delta there in yards might be +100, but it certainly isn't a ton more than that.

[BishopMVP]

I do think there is something to be said for a running QB increasing the average YPC of the RB's around him, particularly as the read-option remains a threat. The system you're pushing values QB's more for breaking off fairly infrequent long scramble runs while punishing them for more frequent, but consistently successful planned ones. A 1 yard sneak on 4th and goal at the 1 is a great play, which is why something like DYAR/DVOA that measures play by play is always going to be better than anything that measures QB's by simple season statistics. I do also think though that fumbles lost need to be included with interceptions.

[Julio Riddols]

The expected finishes based on QB ranking + scoring defense ranking. Lower scores are better. Actual finish shown. Teams in green are teams that would make the playoffs most years with average luck. Orange are teams that were middle of the pack needing a good bounce or two, red teams have little to no chance at postseason action. I'm going to see how well this holds up in other seasons to test for further accuracy.

2012 (out of 29 qualifying QB's)

Manning: 6 -> 13-3
Wilson: 8 -> 11-5
Ryan: 10 -> 13-3
Brady: 13 -> 12-4
Roethlisberger: 16 -> 8-8
Rodgers: 20 -> 11-5
E, Manning: 20 -> 9-7
Schaub: 21 -> 12-4
Griffin: 23 -> 10-6
Newton: 24 -> 7-9
Flacco: 28 -> 10-6
Cutler: 29 -> 10-6
Dalton: 31 -> 10-6
Bradford: 32 -> 7-8-1
Brees: 34 -> 7-9
Freeman: 34 -> 7-9
Tannehill: 34 -> 7-9
Ponder: 36 -> 10-6
Romo: 38 -> 8-8
Luck: 40 -> 11-5
Rivers: 41 -> 7-9
Palmer: 41 -> 4-12
Stafford: 42 -> 4-12
Weeden: 43 -> 5-11
Vick: 49 -> 4-12
Sanchez: 49 -> 6-10
Locker: 53 -> 6-10
Henne: 56 -> 2-14

[Julio Riddols]

Yeah, QS - I was going by season numbers based on that. I think Newton does deserve the big bump though, because he was significantly better value on his rushes than his RB's were. I think what I need to do now is factor in fumble%/2 for the final touch, but that would take a lot more number crunching. Newton did fumble 10 times and should be penalized for that.

When I get time I'm going to go through and do about 4 or 5 seasons worth of this and see how things look with and without fumbles factored in. I want to see which one correlates better with team success.

Edit: I think the formula for fumbles should be fumbles/(rushes+sacks), then you take that percentage and divide by 20. (20 rather than 2 because then you don't have to move the decimal point yourself to arrive at the final number.) so a guy who fumbles 15 times in 120 total carries/sacks would see a hit of 0.6. This way the big offenders like 2012 Rivers see a significant hit (1.0 via the new calculation) but fumbles aren't over weighted. His 2012 season would fall in at -0.6.

I was going over the 2001 season as one of my test seasons, and I must say 2001 was a bad year for passing.

EDIT 2: Here's how 2001 looks in full with the fumble calculation added in. How about Jim Miller?


1. J.Garcia: 6.0 Passing, 0.0 rushing, -00.4 fumbles. 5.6 -->10
B.Favre: 7.0 Passing, 0.0 rushing, -01.6 fumbles. 5.4 --> 7
R.Gannon: 5.6 Passing, 0.0 rushing, -00.7 fumbles. 4.9 --> 22
D.McNabb: 2.0 Passing, 2.6 rushing, -00.3 fumbles. 4.3 --> 6
5. K.Warner: 4.9 Passing, 0.0 rushing, -00.7 fumbles. 4.2 --> 12
S.McNair: 2.0 Passing, 1.9 rushing, -00.2 fumbles. 3.7 --> 31
K.Stewart: 1.5 Passing, 2.5 rushing, -00.4 fumbles. 3.6 --> 10
Jim Miller: 3.9 Passing, 0.0 rushing, -00.9 fumbles. 3.0 --> 9
P.Manning: 3.2 Passing, 0.0 rushing, -00.5 fumbles. 2.7 --> 40
10. J.Plummer: 2.5 Passing, 0.4 rushing, -00.6 fumbles. 2.3 --> 32
J.Fiedler: 1.8 Passing, 0.5 rushing, -00.3 fumbles. 2.0 --> 22
A.VanPelt 2.6 Passing, 0.0 rushing, -01.0 fumbles. 1.6 --> 41
V.Tstavrde 2.5 Passing, 0.0 rushing, -01.2 fumbles. 1.3 --> 25
D.Flutie 1.4 Passing, 0.0 rushing, -00.4 fumbles. 1.0 --> 30
15. D.Culpepper:-1.0 Passing, 2.2 rushing, -00.8 fumbles. 0.4 --> 41
A.Brooks -0.5 Passing, 0.7 rushing, -00.5 fumbles. -0.3 --> 43
K.Collins: 1.1 Passing, 0.0 rushing, -01.5 fumbles. -0.4 --> 34
E.Grbac 0.1 Passing, 0.0 rushing, -00.9 fumbles. -0.8 --> 22
B.Griese: -0.6 Passing, 0.0 rushing, -00.4 fumbles. -1.0 --> 40
20. B.Johnson: -0.9 Passing, 0.0 rushing, -00.2 fumbles. -1.1 --> 28
T.Brady: -0.6 Passing, 0.0 rushing, -00.8 fumbles. -1.4 --> 27
T.Green -1.0 Passing, 0.3 rushing, -00.7 fumbles. -1.4 --> 45
J.Kitna: -0.3 Passing, 0.0 rushing, -01.3 fumbles. -1.6 --> 37
C.Weinke -0.7 Passing, 0.0 rushing, -00.9 fumbles. -1.6 --> 52
25. T.Banks -0.9 Passing, 0.0 rushing, -00.7 fumbles. -1.6 --> 38
M.Brunell: -2.5 Passing, 1.2 rushing, -00.4 fumbles. -1.7 --> 36
C.Chandler: -1.7 Passing, 0.0 rushing, -00.6 fumbles. -2.3 --> 51
C.Batch: -1.8 Passing, 0.0 rushing, -00.7 fumbles. -2.5 --> 58
T.Couch -4.3 Passing, 0.0 rushing, -00.5 fumbles. -4.8 --> 44
30. M.Hasselbeck -4.6 Passing, 0.0 rushing, -00.4 fumbles. -5.0 --> 48

Playoff expectations:

Philly: 6 (11-5)
Green Bay: 7 (12-4)
Chicago: 9 (13-3)
San Fran: 10 (12-4)
Pittsburgh: 10 (13-3)
St. Louis: 12 (14-2)
Miami: 22 (11-5)
Baltimore: 22 (10-6)
Oakland: 22 (10-6)
NYJets: 25 (10-6)
New England: 27 (11-5)
Tampa Bay: 29 (9-7)
San Diego: 30 (5-11)
Tennessee: 31 (7-9)
Arizona: 32 (7-9)
NYGiants: 34 (7-9)
Jax: 36 (6-10)
Cincinnati: 37 (6-10)
Washington: 38 (8-8)
Indy: 40 (6-10)
Denver: 40 (8-8)
Buffalo: 41 (3-13)
Minnesota: 41 (5-11)
New Orleans: 43 (7-9)
Cleveland: 44 (7-9)
Kansas City: 45 (6-10)
Seattle: 48 (9-7) <-- Impressive job squeezing wins out of this. 5 of them by 3 points.
Atlanta: 51 (7-9)
Carolina: 52 (1-15)
Detroit: 58 (2-14)

Looking at the stats from that Falcons season, I have no idea how they wrangled 7 wins (and could have had 2 more which both ended in OT losses to Frisco) with that team. They were outscored 291-377, they gave up a half point more per drive to their opponents, they were only +2 in turnovers..

They did beat 1-15 Carolina 2 times. They beat the 5-11 Cowboys and the 3-13 Bills.. But they also beat Green Bay AT Green Bay.. I guess it was one of those sunshine on a dogs ass moments.

EDIT 3: 2007 (Only 23 qualifiers this season. Lots of injuries at QB and lots of bad QB play.)

1. T.Brady 12.1 Passing, 0.0 rushing, -0.5 fumbles. 11.6 --> 5
P.Manning 7.2 Passing, 0.0 rushing, -0.7 fumbles. 6.5 --> 3
B.Favre 7.5 Passing, 0.0 rushing, -1.0 fumbles. 6.5 --> 10
T.Romo 6.9 Passing, 0.1 rushing, -0.9 fumbles. 6.1 --> 17
5. D.Garrard 6.2 Passing, 0.0 rushing, -0.2 fumbles. 6.0 --> 15
D.Anderson 6.5 Passing, 0.0 rushing, -0.5 fumbles. 6.0 --> 27
C.Palmer 5.3 Passing, 0.0 rushing, -0.6 fumbles. 4.7 --> 31
D.Brees 5.9 Passing, 0.0 rushing, -1.2 fumbles. 4.7 --> 33
J.Garcia 4.8 Passing, 0.0 rushing, -0.4 fumbles. 4.4 --> 12
10. K.Warner 5.6 Passing, 0.0 rushing, -1.6 fumbles. 4.0 --> 37
M.Hasselbeck 4.5 Passing, 0.0 rushing, -0.6 fumbles. 3.9 --> 17
B.Roethlblah 2.6 Passing, 1.1 rushing, -0.5 fumbles. 3.2 --> 14
J.Cutler 3.3 Passing, 0.5 rushing, -0.8 fumbles. 3.0 --> 29
P.Rivers 3.6 Passing, 0.0 rushing, -1.1 fumbles. 2.5 --> 19
15. J.Campbell 2.0 Passing, 0.7 rushing, -1.1 fumbles. 1.6 --> 26
D.McNabb 1.0 Passing, 0.6 rushing, -0.5 fumbles. 1.5 --> 25
E.Manning 1.9 Passing, 0.0 rushing, -1.2 fumbles. 0.7 --> 34
V.Young -1.5 Passing, 0.3 rushing, -0.4 fumbles. -1.6 --> 26
J.Harringtn -1.9 Passing, 0.0 rushing, -0.0 fumbles. -1.9 --> 48
20. C.Lemon -1.8 Passing, 0.0 rushing, -0.6 fumbles. -2.4 --> 50
J.Kitna -1.4 Passing, 0.0 rushing, -1.1 fumbles. -2.5 --> 53
D.Huard -3.6 Passing, 0.0 rushing, -0.6 fumbles. -4.2 --> 36
M.Bulger -3.7 Passing, 0.0 rushing, -0.7 fumbles. -4.4 --> 54

Colts: 3 (13-3)
Patriots: 5 (16-0)
Packers: 10 (13-3)
Tampa Bay: 12 (9-7)
Steelers: 14 (10-6)
Jacksonville: 15 (11-5)
Seattle: 17 (10-6)
Dallas: 17 (13-3)
Chargers: 19 (11-5)
Philly: 25 (8-8)
Washington: 26 (9-7)
Titans: 26 (10-6)
Cleveland: 27 (10-6)
Chicago: 29 (7-9)
Cinci: 31 (7-9)
N.O.: 33 (7-9)
NYG: 34 (10-6)
K.C.: 36 (4-12) --> Clearly benefited from there being only 23 qualifiers. Huard probably ranked in the bottom 3 but he got credit for 22nd here.
Arizona: 37 (8-8)
Atlanta: 48 (4-12)
Miami: 50 (1-15)
Detroit: 53 (7-9)
St. Louis: 54 (3-13)

EDIT 4: 1995 (29 qualifiers) <-- So many 7-9/8-8/9-7 teams this season (15), still the system sorts them out pretty well.

1. E.Kramer 8.3 Passing, 0.0 rushing, -0.6 fumbles. 7.7 --> 23
B.Favre 6.6 Passing, 0.2 rushing, -0.6 fumbles. 6.2 --> 6
T.Aikman 6.6 Passing, 0.0 rushing, -0.7 fumbles. 5.9 --> 6
N.O'Donnell 6.0 Passing, 0.0 rushing, -0.3 fumbles. 5.7 --> 13
5. J.Blake 4.5 Passing, 1.6 rushing, -0.6 fumbles. 5.5 --> 29
S.Mitchell 5.8 Passing, 0.0 rushing, -0.6 fumbles. 5.2 --> 20
J.Elway 5.6 Passing, 0.2 rushing, -0.7 fumbles. 5.1 --> 24
S.Young 3.9 Passing, 0.8 rushing, -0.2 fumbles. 4.5 --> 10
V.Testaverde 4.9 Passing, 0.0 rushing, -0.6 fumbles. 4.3 --> 29
10. D.Marino 5.1 Passing, 0.0 rushing, -1.1 fumbles. 4.0 --> 20
J.Everett 4.6 Passing, 0.0 rushing, -0.6 fumbles. 4.0 --> 29
W.Moon 4.2 Passing, 0.0 rushing, -0.9 fumbles. 3.3 --> 39
S.Bono 4.2 Passing, 0.0 rushing, -1.0 fumbles. 3.2 --> 14
J.Kelly 3.4 Passing, 0.0 rushing, -0.8 fumbles. 2.6 --> 27
15. S.Humphries 3.2 Passing, 0.0 rushing, -0.8 fumbles. 2.4 --> 21
J.George 2.5 Passing, 0.0 rushing, -0.4 fumbles. 2.1 --> 35
C.Chandler 3.3 Passing, 0.0 rushing, -1.2 fumbles. 2.1 --> 24
J.Harbaugh 1.7 Passing, 0.4 rushing, -0.2 fumbles. 1.9 --> 23
M.Brunell -1.5 Passing, 3.6 rushing, -0.2 fumbles. 1.9 --> 47
20. G.Frerotte 1.6 Passing, 0.0 rushing, -0.8 fumbles. 0.8 --> 41
D.Bledsoe 1.5 Passing, 0.0 rushing, -1.3 fumbles. 0.2 --> 46
C.Miller 0.1 Passing, 0.0 rushing, -0.4 fumbles. -0.3 --> 51
K.Collins -0.2 Passing, 0.0 rushing, -1.0 fumbles. -1.2 --> 31
B.Esiason -0.5 Passing, 0.0 rushing, -1.3 fumbles. -1.8 --> 50
25. D.Brown -2.4 Passing, 0.8 rushing, -0.6 fumbles. -2.2 --> 41
R.Peete -3.5 Passing, 0.3 rushing, -1.0 fumbles. -4.2 --> 41
D.Krieg -3.3 Passing, 0.0 rushing, -1.1 fumbles. -4.4 --> 57
R.Mirer -4.9 Passing, 0.4 rushing, -0.3 fumbles. -5.2 --> 51
T.Dilfer -6.8 Passing, 0.4 rushing, -0.9 fumbles. -7.3 --> 41

Expected finish

Green Bay: 6 (11-5)
Dallas: 6 (12-4)
Frisco: 10 (11-5)
Pittsburgh: 13 (11-5)
Kansas City: 14 (13-3)
Detroit: 20 (10-6)
Miami: 20 (9-7)
San Diego: 21 (9-7)
Indy: 23 (9-7)
Chicago: 23 (9-7) <-- Atl beat them into the playoffs, but the Bears were the superior team.
Denver: 24 (8-8)
Houston: 24 (7-9)
Buffalo: 27 (10-6)
New Orleans: 29 (7-9)
Cleveland: 29 (5-11) <-- lost 4 games by 3 or less, -15 in turnover ratio over last 8 games.
Cincinnati: 29 (7-9)
Carolina: 31 (7-9)
Atlanta: 35 (9-7)
Minnesota: 39 (8-8)
Rams: 40 (7-9)
Was: 41 (6-10)
NYG: 41 (5-11)
Philly: 41 (10-6) <--4 wins by 3 or less, 5 defensive touchdowns. Forced 38 turnovers while coughing it up 36 times themselves. Volatile team.
Tampa: 41 (7-9)
New England: 46 (6-10)
Jax: 47 (4-12)
NYJets: 50 (3-13)
Rams: 51 (7-9) <-- Started 4-0 with no turnovers through 4 weeks. They were +14 in those games. Luck (or regression to the mean) turned on them and they would turn the ball over at least 3 times in 7 of their 9 subsequent losses. after the first 4 games, they were -17 in turnover ratio.
Arizona: 57 (4-12)<--Another volatile team. They turned it over 43 times while forcing 42, but their defense was a lot worse than Philly.

[Vince, Pt. II]

Jeff Garcia was criminally underrated.

[cartman]

Originally Posted by Vince, Pt. II

Jeff Garcia was criminally underrated.

I never doubted him after he landed Carmella DeCesare.

[Julio Riddols]

I wish I was good with excel.

[cuervo72]

Putting Quarterbacks Head to Head: Aaron Rodgers is a True MVP Candidate, Jake Locker Surprises | The Big Lead

[Julio Riddols]

I like his data, interesting stuff.. But I am biased because it supports my system a little bit. I need to re-run the 2013 numbers to see where Locker and Brady actually fall now that I have better determined how to compile the final rating.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

Wearing that "Free Hernandez" is not looking too good for Mike Pouncey.

Miami's Mike Pouncey served grand jury subpoena in Massachusetts - NFL - SI.com

Just saw this, re-reading last week's thread. Wow, not a good week for the Miami O-Line.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Julio Riddols

My ratings system. PassYPA - INT% + RushYPA - Sack% + TD%.
For QB's with less than 3 rush attempts per game, their average is zeroed out. This system measures composite performance of QB+pass protection.

I'm going with QB's with a minimum of 100 attempts.

Here's how it shakes out by my system:

Manning: 8.8-1.8+0.0-3.2+8.7 = 12.5
Locker: 6.9-0.7+7.1-7.3+5.3 = 11.3
Rodgers: 8.8-1.6+3.8-6.4+6.0 = 10.6
Luck: 7.0-1.3+6.5-6.3+4.5 = 10.4
Vick: 8.6-2.1+9.1-9.6+3.5 = 09.5
Kaepernick: 8.0-2.5+6.0-7.0+4.5 = 09.0
Dalton: 8.1-2.5+2.8-5.4+5.7 = 08.7
Rivers: 8.6-2.0+0.0-4.2+6.0 = 08.4
Griffin: 7.0-3.0+5.6-5.0+3.4 = 08.0
Stafford: 7.7-1.8+0.0-2.9+4.7 = 07.7
Brees: 8.5-1.8+0.0-6.2+7.0 = 07.5
Romo: 7.5-1.7+0.0-5.1+6.1 = 06.8
Newton: 7.7-2.5+4.6-9.4+5.9 = 06.3
Wilson: 7.9-2.0+5.6-11.6+6.3= 06.2
A.Smith: 6.3-1.4+5.3-7.7+3.1 = 05.6
Ryan: 7.3-2.3+0.0-4.1+4.6 = 05.5
Cutler: 7.4-3.1+0.0-4.3+5.3 = 05.3
Bradford: 6.4-1.5+0.0-5.4+5.3 = 04.8
Manuel: 6.6-2.0+3.6-8.0+3.3 = 03.5
Hoyer*: 6.4-3.1+0.0-5.9+5.2 = 02.6
Glennon: 5.5-1.7+0.0-5.2+3.3 = 01.9
Pryor: 7.3-4.5+7.4-12.3+3.2= 01.1
Tannehill: 6.8-3.4+3.9-10.9+4.2= 00.6
G.Smith: 7.4-5.1+5.1-10.0+3.2= 00.6
Ponder: 6.9-4.1+5.7-9.7+1.7 = 00.5
Schaub: 6.7-3.9+0.0-6.0+3.4 = 00.2
Flacco: 7.1-3.0+0.0-6.9+3.0 = 00.2
Brady: 5.9-2.0+0.0-7.0+2.9 = -00.2
E.Manning: 7.1-4.9+0.0-5.8+3.3 = -00.3
Henne: 6.7-2.3+0.0-6.8+1.4 = -01.0
Roethlisbe: 7.4-2.7+0.0-9.1+3.1 = -01.3
Freeman: 5.2-3.2+0.0-5.2+1.4 = -01.8
Palmer: 6.7-4.9+0.0-7.5+3.5 = -02.2
Weeden: 5.9-3.1+0.0-9.7+2.6 = -04.3
Gabbert**: 5.6-8.1+3.6-12.2+1.2= -09.9

*= only 96 attempts
**=only 86 attempts

Seems like Locker's getting the bulk of his points from his YPA, 7.1 of his 11.3, and he had exactly 3 rushes per game at this time, so one less carry and you would have zeroed out that cell, giving him a 4.2. Maybe something using rush yards per game would help flesh that out, since averaging 21.3 yards per game on 3 plays doesn't really do it for me.

[jbergey22]

Any list with Manning #1 and Gabbert last seems to be a good start.

The thing which is probably most difficult is figuring out a QB as an individual. For example Tom Brady after years of being a top 5 QB it is highly unlikely that suddenly he is a bottom 1/3 QB. Clearly a lot of variables go into that position which make trying to neutralize them likely an impossible task.

[Julio Riddols]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Seems like Locker's getting the bulk of his points from his YPA, 7.1 of his 11.3, and he had exactly 3 rushes per game at this time, so one less carry and you would have zeroed out that cell, giving him a 4.2. Maybe something using rush yards per game would help flesh that out, since averaging 21.3 yards per game on 3 plays doesn't really do it for me.

Yeah, I need to redo the 2013 numbers because I redid the formula after I put that up. Now it's (rush att/15) * (rush average-4), divided by 4.

Lockers number should actually be closer to 7.5/8.

[Julio Riddols]

I'm definitely going to revisit this at the end of the year, then try and find a way to tie in receiver/rb performance as a whole.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Julio Riddols

Yeah, I need to redo the 2013 numbers because I redid the formula after I put that up. Now it's (rush att/15) * (rush average-4), divided by 4.

Lockers number should actually be closer to 7.5/8.

It still seems too high to me that he's getting 3.5 of his points for rushing based on running 3 times per game. You've also got Terrelle Pryor getting 15.5, and Cam Newton getting 2.1 -- those numbers don't really jive with me. For one, 15 points to Pryor puts him in Top 5 QB territory, which is probably not wanted. And I can't imagine Locker is seriously worth more as a rushing QB than Newton -- I think more needs to be said to the fact that Newton is running twice as many times. Also, are QB sneaks counted as runs? If so, how much is a QB getting penalized for running successful QB sneaks that get 1 yard? I'm not sure how to answer that other than putting less weight in the category.