01-09-2010, 03:31 PM | #201 | |
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Agreed...pure stats guys think they have a holy grail to everything. On the flip side of that, I think many people discredit so much of the statistical work because they don't fully understand it. They think the stats are just being invented out of thin air. They don't understand the math that not only goes into producing the stats but also the math that shows the stats to be extremely good predictors of what things they measure. |
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01-09-2010, 03:33 PM | #202 | |
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Agreed, but there's a sort of old fart (I call it the Malleus Dei experience from OOTP) who refuses to accept any sort of evidence; they know what they know, and any evidence that disagrees with that is clearly wrong. These are the people who resort to asinine habits as insisting the "numbers are biased"; there really is no hope for them. |
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01-09-2010, 04:00 PM | #203 | |
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Comparing two good hitters of different era's I think its the best metric for that. It may not be the end all to everything but Id like you to try and find a better stat for isolating hitting performance from the different ballpark dimensions and different eras we try to compare. If I were comparing Ozzie Smith to Cal Ripken Id probably go a different direction since Ozzie was known for his great defense while Ripken was known for being a great hitter with "sound" defense. What metric would you use to compare Jim Rice and Edgar Martinez? Obviously I am leaning with this stat in defense of Edgar Martinez because it paints the best picture of him as hitter. Im not going to use home runs because because Edgar was much more than a home run hitter. Last edited by jbergey22 : 01-09-2010 at 04:10 PM. |
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01-09-2010, 04:21 PM | #204 | |
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Your mention of Win Shares is a much better metric. I also like to use RC a lot. I know it's not perfect by any means but the thing I like about it is the fact that it pays dividends to a player who has a longer career. Rice -- 1384 Martinez -- 1631 I'd say Martinez wins fairly handidly...especially when you throw in he already has an advantage compared to Rice in OPS+. I'd be curious what their win shares end up being. That doesn't take into account defense either so Rice might make up an advantage since Martinez wouldn't give too much extra there. For the record, I don't think Rice belongs in either. Last edited by rowech : 01-09-2010 at 04:22 PM. |
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01-09-2010, 04:37 PM | #205 |
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IIRC, doesn't Win Shares take into account defensive contributions?
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01-09-2010, 04:44 PM | #206 |
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01-09-2010, 05:03 PM | #207 |
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Ah, ok... I misread your post. Apologies!
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01-09-2010, 05:06 PM | #208 |
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01-09-2010, 05:20 PM | #209 |
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Interestingly, I opened up my Win Shares book and saw Blyeleven compared to some Hall of Famers who pitched a significant time in the 70s:
Blyeleven: 339 career Win Shares Don Sutton: 319 career Win Shares Fergie Jenkins: 323 career Win Shates Jim Palmer: 312 career Win Shares Nolan Ryan: 334 career Win Shares Of course he doesn't compare to Tom Seaver (388) or the like, but few do. Jim Rice's career Win Shares was 282. Due to his short peak, surprisingly low (Fred Lynn's is 280). Martinez seems to have about 305: The Baseball Analysts: Edgar Martinez and the Hall of Fame (second comment) Borderline, but then again, I wouldn't have put Rice in. Martinez is better than him it appears.
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01-09-2010, 05:23 PM | #210 |
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Isn't the win shares statistic sort of falling by the wayside these days?
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01-09-2010, 05:42 PM | #211 |
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01-09-2010, 08:02 PM | #212 | |
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He's right, the world won't come to an end because Alomar will be a non-first ballot HoF'er, but his entire argument is that it's OK because they screwed up voting in the 50's. Bad argument. Prior stupidity doesn't excuse modern stupidity. Also, he didn't do his research - the two biggest omissions on that list are Joe D. and Rogers Hornsby IMHO. The reason that neither of them made the cut on their first tries was that they got votes before they were eligible for induction. In fact, they both got in before they were supposed to. Joe D. retired in 51 and got a large number of votes in 53 and 54 before finally being inducted in 55. Hornsby retired in 1937 and got votes every year from 36-39 before finally reaching >75% in 1942. Hornsby is a little more understandable since the voting rules were still in flux and he played sparingly in the late 30's. But not considering him a first-ballot HoFer is disingenuous.
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01-10-2010, 04:07 PM | #213 |
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Without getting into a novel-sized post (because it could easily get that way), let me say this - I agree with Blackadar that the game has changed (and will likely continue to change). Current statistical analysis is really, really good at breaking down what has just happened, and is getting better at projecting forward.
But comparing players of different eras is difficult because of all the various factors that have changed - segregation, integration, the decline in interest in the sport in the U.S. countered by the rise in interest internationally, advances in training and drugs, travel differences, changes in ballparks, changes in the consistency and composition of bats & balls, etc. If you want to say that hitting in Rice's era was different than in Edgar's era, I'm on board. If you want to say Rice would've done better (in absolute rather than relative terms) had he played in Edgar's era, I'd agree. He almost certainly would've had more HR's and a higher SLG. But you can get into all kinds of hypotheticals and subjective opinions here. People are certainly free to do so, and I do it myself in many ways, but in terms of sticking with what can objectively measured, I operate on this principle - I'm going stick with judging what players have control over. They don't (individually at least) have control over whether the talent pool was diluted or not, or how the ballparks were configured, or whether the mound was higher or lower, or what the bats and balls were like, etc. That's why I'm content, when comparing players of different eras, to look at how they did relative to their peers. That's why I look at "+" metrics for that kind of analysis, such as OPS+ (or even better, wRC+) for hitters. Comparing straight OPS figures for Rice & Edgar is flawed because of factors outside their control that were specific to their eras, but you can look at how much better Rice was than the average hitter of his era and how much better Edgar was than the average hitter of his era and get some sense of how they compared, relative to their era. I'm not going to get into the whole thought experiment of wondering if Rice would've walked more had he played in the current era, or how much Edgar's power would've been reduced had he played in Rice's era - there's just so much that you can't really know that I think it's a discussion that would necessarily be nothing more than a wild guess, and any conclusions not worth being too invested in. Last edited by dawgfan : 01-10-2010 at 04:09 PM. |
01-12-2010, 01:37 PM | #214 | |
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