Official NFL Division PLayoffs Thread

[Vinatieri for Prez]

Originally Posted by Anxiety

I think I heard a coach say once that one basic rule is to always make decisions that extend the game when you are losing. One play, with a significantly less than 50% chance of making it, and the game is over right there. Punt, and you have a guaranteed four chances to get the ball in a turnover (punt, three downs).

Plus, a statustician might know the chances of foring a three and out versus converting a 4th and 15. Who knows which is more liekly, but they are probably right there with each other. He was damned either way, neither was likely to happen at that point.

Two problems with this. It doesn't take into account a particular game situation. First, his defense was dog tired. Second, it's not ball game over if you don't get it. Saints would have got it at the 40. Philly could then get an opportunity to hold them to 3 and out and still get the ball back. Point is you still get your defensive stand opportunity AND a chance to keep going on 4th down if he keeps the punt team off the field. You make dumb decisions like that and you deserve to lose.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Vinatieri for Prez

Two problems with this. It doesn't take into account a particular game situation. First, his defense was dog tired. Second, it's not ball game over if you don't get it. Saints would have got it at the 40. Philly could then get an opportunity to hold them to 3 and out and still get the ball back. Point is you still get your defensive stand opportunity AND a chance to keep going on 4th down if he keeps the punt team off the field. You make dumb decisions like that and you deserve to lose.

Not a dumb decision. They don't make it then New Orleans gets it at the 40. Obviously a 1st down is game over but they can be in field goal range without getting the first down. A field goal makes them need to get a touchdown with no timeouts and about 30 seconds left from around the 25-30. If the Saints are happy with the lead and punt then the Eagles get the ball inside their 20 with no timeouts.

After punting, if the Eagles hold the Saints and force a punt, they start at around their 40 only needing a field goal. Field position is priceless with that little bit of time.

What needs to be weighed are the odds of converting a 4th and 15 versus the increased odds that starting a drive with no timeouts on around your 40 give you over the other two options (down 6 and around your 30 or down 3 and around your 15).


Overall two things stand out (based only on hearing it so I I do not have a first hand account of it so correct me if I am wrong. The first is the punt at the end of teh first half. If the punter kicks the ball it sounds as if it would have been blocked. This could have meant at least 3 if not 7 more points by the Eagles making it 21-13 at the half. The Westbrook touchdown would have then made it 28-13 and most likely game over at that point.

The other was the defensive stand that led to the final field goal of the game by the Eagles. Obviously a touchdown there changes the entire rest of the game, it could still have been a Saints win but it would have obviously played out differently.

There is also a third in a way. Andrews being out and his replacement has the false start that kept them from making the 4th and 10 conversion.


Oh, and a question for those who saw the game. Did Garcia suck today? Just based on the description of most of his throws it sounded that way to me. I heard several that sounded as if they should have been picked off or were way off target. On the plus side it sounded as it the Stallworth touchdown was a great throw.

[Eaglesfan27]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Oh, and a question for those who saw the game. Did Garcia suck today? Just based on the description of most of his throws it sounded that way to me. I heard several that sounded as if they should have been picked off or were way off target. On the plus side it sounded as it the Stallworth touchdown was a great throw.

I don't think he sucked. The Saints played an Eagles style of defense at times and blitzed quite a bit. As a result, Garcia was under heavy pressure all day which contributed to some poor throws. However, he made a heck of a throw on the Stallworth TD (although Stallworth had to adjust to it) and he threw some intermediate passes that were excellent surprisingly hard throws. His receivers dropped quite a few catchable balls too.

However, due to pressure he threw a few balls that should have been picked off and just weren't.

[bhlloy]

I hated the punt call at the time. Seemed like Philly was starting to complete those mid range passes quite nicely, and I couldn't see them stopping Deuce from getting a first down in three carries. Even if they did (assuming no turnover or punt return TD) they would still have to drive 30+ yards in under 30 seconds to kick a mid to long range field goal.

Hearing Sean Salisbury on Sportscenter and reading the arguments above, it's a very close call with possibly an edge to punting the ball away.

[Vince]

Originally Posted by Eaglesfan27

I don't think he sucked. The Saints played an Eagles style of defense at times and blitzed quite a bit. As a result, Garcia was under heavy pressure all day which contributed to some poor throws. However, he made a heck of a throw on the Stallworth TD (although Stallworth had to adjust to it) and he threw some intermediate passes that were excellent surprisingly hard throws. His receivers dropped quite a few catchable balls too.

However, due to pressure he threw a few balls that should have been picked off and just weren't.

This is a pretty spot-on description. He made a few amazing throws, and a couple of pretty terrible ones. I'd say overall he had a pretty good day, with a few bad spots.

[bhlloy]

With regards to Garcia, he had two of his biggest plays called back because of the injury to Shawn Andrews. If that third down pass is complete, I don't feel there is anyway the Eagles don't at least get back to force overtime. I thought he played pretty well.

[Vinatieri for Prez]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Not a dumb decision. They don't make it then New Orleans gets it at the 40. Obviously a 1st down is game over but they can be in field goal range without getting the first down. A field goal makes them need to get a touchdown with no timeouts and about 30 seconds left from around the 25-30. If the Saints are happy with the lead and punt then the Eagles get the ball inside their 20 with no timeouts.

After punting, if the Eagles hold the Saints and force a punt, they start at around their 40 only needing a field goal. Field position is priceless with that little bit of time.

What needs to be weighed are the odds of converting a 4th and 15 versus the increased odds that starting a drive with no timeouts on around your 40 give you over the other two options (down 6 and around your 30 or down 3 and around your 15).

Just gotta say nope. You leave out the ass-tired Philly defense/hot Deuce McAllister out of the calculation. So when you add this to a chance to convert 4-15, you have to go for it. They didn't and they lost.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Vinatieri for Prez

Just gotta say nope. You leave out the ass-tired Philly defense/hot Deuce McAllister out of the calculation. So when you add this to a chance to convert 4-15, you have to go for it. They didn't and they lost.

You're leaving out the absence of one the best players on the offensive line in Andrews and the pressure on Garia all day. He would have practically no chance of getting the ball off for a 15 yard completion as New Orleans would have brought the house. Eitehr way we are down to having the defense dig down for a stop and punting allows you to be in better position after the stop that you hope for.

[Vinatieri for Prez]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

He would have practically no chance of getting the ball off for a 15 yard completion as New Orleans would have brought the house.

You mean like the one he completed the play before? Or the one McNabb completed against the Packers a few years back? Ever heard of a screen pass?
Look, it's not easy but if they couldn't do that, what makes you think they were going to do it then even if they got the ball back? My point is they could have tried and then still gotten the ball back by holding the Saints after that to 3 and out.

[EagleFan]

If the defense can't come up with a 3 and out stop when they absolutely have to than they really have no business winning anyway. The defense has come up LARGE in key spots when they have needed to lately so there was no reason to think they had no shot to at that point. The one they completed the play before was a false start that was blown dead, there is no real way of knowing if that had any affect on it, plus needing 10 and needing 15 are a lot different. Screen pass? You still need time for a screen pass. The McNabb against the Packers was the exception to the rule (or else no team would ever punt). Using the 4th and 26 as logic for play choice would be like saying that because your neighbor bought a lottery ticket and hit last week that you must be going to this week so go quit your job.

If they were in Saint territory than I may agree. Hell, I was pissed at the punt at first until I thought about it for a bit and realized that it was an uphill battle either way but punting gave tghem a slight chance on the back end of the gamble.


Here's what was going through coach Reid's mind: Eagles/Patriots 2005. Down by 3 with under 2 minutes left and a failed onside kick is followed by a defensive stand by a defensive unit that was getting torched by New England all second half. A punt then started the Eagles on their own 4. If he kicks off they start at least around their 30, if not their 40. That one time risk put them behind the eight ball when they got the ball back.

[MizzouRah]

Sorry Eaglesfan(s), your team had a good run, even when your starting QB went down.

[spleen1015]

I learned something watching BSU - OU and OSU-UF with you guys. It is fun!

I was playing poker last night and wondering what you guys had to say about what was going on in the games.

What the hell is wrong with me?

[spleen1015]

Dola,

WOOHOO!

Colts WIN!!!!!!

[Coffee Warlord]

Touchdown BEARS!

[Lathum]

Hasselbeck looks in pain

[Lathum]

i think the residents of chicago may be warming up to rex

[Coffee Warlord]

REXY!

[Atocep]

1) without Tommie Harris the bears defenese is rather average and struggles to get any pass rush.

2) Cedric needs more carries.

3) Rex is most frustrating player I've ever seen in my life.

[Coffee Warlord]

JONES!

[Lathum]

so does the sweatband around the elbow serve any purpose?

[Atocep]

And right after I post that Jones scores a TD and the bears get their first sack.

[Lathum]

great call on the draw play. This game has turned out much better then i anticipated

[Brillig]

Yeah, so far the NFC is blowing the AFC away... in terms of watchable games, anyway.

[Lathum]

ugh, what a downer for the seattle defense

[Vince]

What the hell was that throw by Hasselbeck?

[Young Drachma]

Who sits at the bus stop with a fish tank in hand?

[Lathum]

that was maybe the sloppiest fourth down play i've ever seen

[Coffee Warlord]

This game is giving me a heart attack.

[Lathum]

'if I were a Bears fan I wouldn't feel very good about my chances right now

to late to take this back?

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Lathum

'if I were a Bears fan I wouldn't feel very good about my chances right now

13-15 yds...they could very well get that

[DaddyTorgo]

oooh. BIG mistake by hasselbeck there!

[ISiddiqui]

Overtime now.

[Lathum]

OVERTIME

"We'll take the ball and we're gonna win!!"

[Vince]

Damn it, the 'hawks had two chances, and they blew it.

[MylesKnight]

Watching a little of this one and I've got a thought..

If the Bears are the best of the NFC, then technically isn't next week's AFC Title Game the actual NFL Title Game?

[Vince]

Hoo, boy. 50 yarder...his career long is 49. He's got the wind, though.

[Vince]

Wow, nice kick.

[Young Drachma]

Nice work, Gould.

[Coffee Warlord]

ROBBIE GOULD!

[Cringer]

Bears suck.

[spleen1015]

Here's to hoping NO can beat them.

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by spleen1015

Here's to hoping NO can beat them.

Silence.

[DaddyTorgo]

i'd love to see the saints in the superbowl

[LloydLungs]

Originally Posted by spleen1015

Here's to hoping NO can beat them.

Hear hear. Though I suspect the Saints will lose based on their performance vs. the Steelers earlier this year, when they faced a cruddy QB who was throwing INTs by the bushels to the rest of the league, yet dominated the Saints. Our defensive backs will drop all the INTs Grossman will throw them, and they will probably need those for points if the weather's bad, as Dome teams historically suck in cold weather in January.

Of course, Chicago's been downright balmy lately.

[Tigercat]

I am actually just as glad to see us going to Chicago as playing Seattle at home. Seattle at home would be good for the city in the short run, but the Saints have played better with their backs against the wall this year. (See: better road record than home.) They will be the underdogs playing in conditions they aren't use to, I like those odds for a chance to the Super Bowl.

Edit: remember lloyd, these aren't the SOS that can't respond to adversity, they are the antithesis of those guys.

[spleen1015]

Well, the only team still alive that can beat the Colts is the Chargers. The Colts' chances are looking good.

Rooting for the Pats tonight. It's only fitting that the Colts go to the Super Bowl by beating them.

[Desnudo]

Originally Posted by spleen1015

Well, the only team still alive that can beat the Colts is the Chargers. The Colts' chances are looking good.

Rooting for the Pats tonight. It's only fitting that the Colts go to the Super Bowl by beating them.

Aren't you jumping the gun a little bit here?

[Eaglesfan27]

I think that drop was one of the worst I've ever seen by a DB.

[Fouts]

Argh!! Would have been a sweet INT.

[LloydLungs]

Originally Posted by Tigercat

Edit: remember lloyd, these aren't the SOS that can't respond to adversity, they are the antithesis of those guys.

I agree. I wouldn't necessarily have agreed before yesterday, but that cutesy play call/Reggie Bush fumble was THE CLASSIC SOS MOMENT and we fought through it like champs.

Still, we do have a weak butterfingers secondary and history has been uniformly unkind to dome teams in cold weather in the playoffs. Has a dome team ever gotten to the Super Bowl by winning outside a dome? The Falcons won at Minnesota to get there in 1998, and the dominant Rams teams in the 99-01 range played at home, I believe.

Then again, if anybody is going to break the mold, these Saints will. What a special team.