POL: Midterm Results Thread

[Crapshoot]

Fox News has done a damn good job, IMO- there was no cheerleading on either side, and I thought Brit Hume did a good job.

[Galaxy]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

This particular one may be, because it'll reign in Bush, who is, frankly, hated by every other country.

Does it really "reign" in Bush in terms of the Iraq situation? He's still the Commander-In-Chief. Congress can try to press him harder, but they really lack much power in terms of the war.

[Flasch186]

woah Pelosi eyes....them's some crazy eyes.

[14ers]

I am curious about Current Senators changing parties. I know it is rare, but I have seen this happen in the past where someone changes party during their term.

If the Senate goes 50/50 tonight, this would be a win for the Republicans. If the Democrats could get a current Republican Senator to officially change parties next week, what would happen?

[cartman]

Originally Posted by 14ers

I am curious about Current Senators changing parties. I know it is rare, but I have seen this happen in the past where someone changes party during their term.

If the Senate goes 50/50 tonight, this would be a win for the Republicans. If the Democrats could get a current Republican Senator to officially change parties next week, what would happen?

If they switched before Congress reconvenes, and they announced they would caucus with the Dems, then the Dems would effectively control the Senate.

[Crapshoot]

Nah - if a switch were to happen, it would be Bill Nelson crossing to the Reps. If Lincoln Chafee had won, he might have switched.

[SirFozzie]

Originally Posted by Galaxy

Does it really "reign" in Bush in terms of the Iraq situation? He's still the Commander-In-Chief. Congress can try to press him harder, but they really lack much power in terms of the war.

Yes it does. Do you know who controls spending bills? The House.

Further explanation: Bush can fight a war, but the House may not fund it.

[ISiddiqui]

Yep, indeed. Hard to fight a war without money.

[SFL Cat]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

Yes it does. Do you know who controls spending bills? The House.

Further explanation: Bush can fight a war, but the House may not fund it.

They cut their own necks if they cut spending for the war.

Especially with all their bitching about how the troops weren't properly equipped.

[Schmidty]

I'm not done.

Fuck Bush.

The more I think about it, the more I realize the fact that HE is the main reason that the incompetent canadian bitch is still in controll of my beautiful state. People hate him so damned much, that they would rather fuck their own state over by keeping a piece of refuse like her in office, than they would vote in a person of W's party. Bush is an immense pile of feces, but the people that keep Granholm in office just to spite him, are bigger anal sacks than people that vote for her from an actual "informed" position (impossible).

I have never hated politics more than now. All of you people that argue in the POL threads, and take one side or the other without wavering or actually looking at both sides objectively (i.e., 99% of you), are beneath contempt. Fucking zombies.

[SFL Cat]

F*cking whiner.

[SirFozzie]

Originally Posted by SFL Cat

They cut their own necks if they cut spending for the war.

Yeah, but the threat is there, and could force a change in policy, ESPECIALLY after the Baker report comes out.

[DaddyTorgo]

okay...so there'll be a recount in VA...that much seems apparent.

[SirFozzie]

Holy shit, we have two sets of #'s?

The AP has Allen leading by 2100 and CNN etcetera have Webb leading by 2100????

[Wolfpack]

The thing of that is which one could you move? Maybe one of the Maine women, but that's pretty much it right now and Olympia Snowe won comfortably tonight as an R.

At any rate, in spite of Schmidty's rantings, it must be said that the Michigan results hold a little cold truth for Democrats. This election was clearly an anti-Bush vote, much as 1994 was for the Republicans against Clinton. I say this because there were a pair of proposals on the ballot in Michigan that, had this truly been a shift leftward politically, should never have come out as they have tonight. Prop 5 was an education funding proposal (though if one actually read the language, it was obvious that its actual intent was to make taxpayers bear a bigger burden for pensions) that was shot down, but more importantly, Prop 2, the MCRI, which will make Affirmative Action programs in government unconstitutional, looks set to pass. This is in spite of being heavily outspent by opposition forces (I saw tons of No on 2 commercials, but I think just one Yes on 2). Any true leftward shift would have sent this proposal in particular down to defeat. As it is, I think it passed because the people who voted anti-Bush had no reason to tie either this or Prop 5 to national Republicans, so they voted how they felt on the matter.

Either way, Prop 2's win will make my life in Ann Arbor tomorrow just slightly more bearable.

(I should note that this will likely be short-lived as I'm sure the Prop 2 opponents will go federal-judge-shopping to get it overturned and ultimately it'll end up back at the Supreme Court again.)

[Jonathan Ezarik]

Originally Posted by SFL Cat

F*cking whiner.

Hi pot, this is kettle...

[Young Drachma]

All the sites are reporting the Wyoming House race is a dead heat, but...I've done calculations from most of the county clerk sites since most of the votes in the state are in already.

http://ishouldstudymore.net/27/2006/11/07/buh-bye-babs/

The only way she can even get it back to being close, is she beats him WORSE in this one county (Converse) than she beat her 2004 opponent. But that's not going to happen. This Dem has made gains in each of the counties she won in 2004 and even took three of the larger ones from her or has bigger margins of victory than the Dem did who took a few of the more blue counties in the state.

Wyoming hasn't send a Dem to Congress since Cheney first held the seat many years ago. People really hated the ugly, negative campaign she ran and she's done much of nothing in Congress, but figured that the people here would never send a Democrat to Congress...

Well, she's about to get a surprise. The Dems will herald this as a signal of Americans wanting change. But that's not what this race was about. It's simply about a person who was drunk with power taking advantage of her constituents and the people getting fed up with it. Nothing more, nothing less.

[larrymcg421]

The main thing that will happen with Dem control is the GOP will no longer be able to halt ethics complaints. You can bet that Pelosi will open investigations on everything from the Bush administration, to GOP congressman, to the Republican paperboy who took cookies in lieu of a payment.

[cartman]

Originally Posted by Dark Cloud

It's simply about a person who was drunk with power taking advantage of her constituents and the people getting fed up with it. Nothing more, nothing less.

I think this is how people viewed a lot of their incumbents this election cycle.

[Swaggs]

MSNBC calls Corker the "Apparent Winner," rather than the "Projected Winner."

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Dark Cloud

All the sites are reporting the Wyoming House race is a dead heat, but...I've done calculations from most of the county clerk sites since most of the votes in the state are in already.

http://ishouldstudymore.net/27/2006/11/07/buh-bye-babs/

The only way she can even get it back to being close, is she beats him WORSE in this one county (Converse) than she beat her 2004 opponent. But that's not going to happen. This Dem has made gains in each of the counties she won in 2004 and even took three of the larger ones from her or has bigger margins of victory than the Dem did who took a few of the more blue counties in the state.

Wyoming hasn't send a Dem to Congress since Cheney first held the seat many years ago. People really hated the ugly, negative campaign she ran and she's done much of nothing in Congress, but figured that the people here would never send a Democrat to Congress...

Well, she's about to get a surprise. The Dems will herald this as a signal of Americans wanting change. But that's not what this race was about. It's simply about a person who was drunk with power taking advantage of her constituents and the people getting fed up with it. Nothing more, nothing less.

this a senate seat or a house seat?

[DaddyTorgo]

is this Allen conceeding or talking victory or just talking for the sake of talking?

[Wolfpack]

I think there is something of a wave effect going now as the voters in the western states, which had polls closing later, learned that the Dems were doing great in the east and so pulled the lever for them figuring it was in the bag for the Democrats by now. That would account perhaps for some unexpected wins like in Wyoming and in Arizona where JD Hayworth got bounced. It should be noted that when the Republicans got a similar wave going in 1994, they lost a few of those naturally Democratic seats back to the Democrats in 1996 (thinking in particular on Rostenkowski's Chicago seat, for example...the one that eventually paved the way for Blagojevich to become Illinois governor). I expect the Wyoming AL and some of these other western losses to come back over in 2008 if the Republicans can field good candidates and have a strong choice at the top (if it's McCain, it's almost certain some of those seats will come back).

[SirFozzie]

DT, Read the first sentence again?

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

DT, Read the first sentence again?

d'oh. must have missed the first sentence!

[DaddyTorgo]

CNN projects Corker (R) takes TEN

[MrBigglesworth]

Originally Posted by Dark Cloud

Well, she's about to get a surprise. The Dems will herald this as a signal of Americans wanting change. But that's not what this race was about. It's simply about a person who was drunk with power taking advantage of her constituents and the people getting fed up with it. Nothing more, nothing less.

So it's not about wanting a change, it's about wanting the substitution of one thing for another?

Isn't that line against her the basic national line all across the country?

[kruseman]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

Holy shit, we have two sets of #'s?

The AP has Allen leading by 2100 and CNN etcetera have Webb leading by 2100????

Shepard Smith just said Allen's people called in and said the numbers were the wrong way. They say they are winning the votes....

[DaddyTorgo]

Missouri is a dead-heat

[MrBigglesworth]

McCaskill has caught up to Talent.

[larrymcg421]

The Virginia Elections site has Webb in the lead.

http://sbe.virginiainteractive.org/index.htm

[cartman]

Originally Posted by MrBigglesworth

McCaskill has caught up to Talent.

Who is reporting that? CNN.com still has Talent ahead ~750K to ~700K.

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

this a senate seat or a house seat?

House.

Wyoming has one House seat for the whole state.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by cartman

Who is reporting that? CNN.com still has Talent ahead ~750K to ~700K.

i've noticed cnn.com is lagging behind CNN-TV or any other broadcast. my dad was about to go to bed with a lag of 1% in VA

[SFL Cat]

Some have McCaskill ahead.

[st.cronin]

(D) Madrid with a tiny lead over incumbent (R) Wilson in Albuquerque.

[SFL Cat]

With the Senate races up in the air...look out on Wall Street tomorrow.

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by MrBigglesworth

So it's not about wanting a change, it's about wanting the substitution of one thing for another?

Isn't that line against her the basic national line all across the country?

I don't think so. Trauner was positive, ran a clean race and knocked on like 12,000 doors or some crap. In a state with only 500,000 people and where elections do get won and lost by word of mouth more than other places, that's huge.

Cubin, his six-time incumbent opponent has been quoted as saying that she'd never get caught dead going door to door, has had notable gaffes in the past regarding comments she's made about race and most recently, telling the libertarian candidate for House that if he weren't in a wheelchair, that she would slap him..for making a comment to her during a debate about her record (or all of her absences..)

So, in this case, it's clearly about an extremely ineffective legislator, in a heavily red state (though, our incumbent Dem governor was reelected..he wouldn't really be a Dem in most states anyway.) and people ignoring the party line and voting her out.

People have been tired of her for a while, but...they finally decided this new guy should get a shot to prove what he's worth. For the record, I'm not sure what he'll do out there..in that, I wonder if he'll keep the Wyoming folks happy. But the GOP hasn't had any shining star candidates run for this seat in a while, which is why Cubin kept getting to go back.

So we shall see...

[kcchief19]

Originally Posted by SFL Cat

Some have McCaskill ahead.

It's very confusing. CNN has twice update numbers showing McCaskill ahead and then taken them back. A local story just came out that said unofficial numbers from Kansas City show McCaskill winning the city by 50,000 votes that haven't been added yet

[kruseman]

Fox News still says he leads by 40,000(without KC) but I saw CNN had McCaskill up by like 15,000.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Dark Cloud

I don't think so. Trauner was positive, ran a clean race and knocked on like 12,000 doors or some crap. In a state with only 500,000 people and where elections do get won and lost by word of mouth more than other places, that's huge.

Cubin, his six-time incumbent opponent has been quoted as saying that she'd never get caught dead going door to door, has had notable gaffes in the past regarding comments she's made about race and most recently, telling the libertarian candidate for House that if he weren't in a wheelchair, that she would slap him..for making a comment to her during a debate about her record (or all of her absences..)

So, in this case, it's clearly about an extremely ineffective legislator, in a heavily red state (though, our incumbent Dem governor was reelected..he wouldn't really be a Dem in most states anyway.) and people ignoring the party line and voting her out.

People have been tired of her for a while, but...they finally decided this new guy should get a shot to prove what he's worth. For the record, I'm not sure what he'll do out there..in that, I wonder if he'll keep the Wyoming folks happy. But the GOP hasn't had any shining star candidates run for this seat in a while, which is why Cubin kept getting to go back.

So we shall see...

It looks like she might pull it out yet. Unless you have seen numbers beyond 95%?

[DaddyTorgo]

Missouri is sliding towards McCaskill...

[MrBigglesworth]

House pickups are now 23 for the Dems per CNN.

The 5 PA races are all still in the Dem's favor for pickups, but two are too close to call, including PA-8 where the difference is just over 1k with 99% reporting.

[Swaggs]

It actually looks like a lot of the recent polls were accurate.

[DaddyTorgo]

did Webb just declare victory!?!?! whoa

[SirFozzie]

yeah, I think CNN pulled away to prevent a victory speech before the victory.

[DaddyTorgo]

yeah. that's pretty...ballsy of him.

[MrBigglesworth]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

did Webb just declare victory!?!?! whoa

Brilliant. Declare victory and start acting like the new Senator, and public opinion starts to go your way. Dems learned something from 2000.

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

It looks like she might pull it out yet. Unless you have seen numbers beyond 95%?

I'm looking at the numbers as the Sec'y of State releases them. (http://soswy.state.wy.us/election/20...s/06gen-sw.pdf)

The counts are done already in all the counties, it's just a matter of release.

On that count at this moment as I post, he's up by about 4000 votes. That doesn't include Sheridan county, which he won (and she won 2004) Natrona which he won (her home county, she won in 2004)

She won Carbon county in 2004 by a few hundred votes..that's not released yet, but the trends point to a Trauner victory there too. So, if she can win Campbell County by a bigger margin (7500 votes or more) than she did in 2004,that would probably bring this race back in play for her.

But the trends don't point to that happening. Trauner has gained votes where the 2004 Dem lost, beaten her by bigger margins in counties she lost in 2004 and picked up counties that she won in 2004.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by MrBigglesworth

Brilliant. Declare victory and start acting like the new Senator, and public opinion starts to go your way. Dems learned something from 2000.

Yep, exactly what I thought. Frame the question as "He's trying to steal it away from me". It worked brilliantly for Bush in 2000 in the PR wars after election day.