The 2016 NFL Draft

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

Watch out for Jags 4th rounder Dt Sheldon Day. The Jags had teh Senior Bowl three years in a row, and drafted a ton of players they found there, and most, Telvin Smith, Brandon Linder, and more have all been really good, quality backups or played above their draft pick. DT Sheldon Day was a Senior Bowl this year with Gus Bradley. I'd not be surprised to see that trend continue.





EDIT - I don't want y'all thinking I'm spamming Jags stuff but I do like Jack's first presser - better than a lot or might expect from someone who tumbled and such.

Jack: "Put that helmet on and play ball"

I'm clearly bias but Jack was a great kid at ucla, humble and polite. Class all the way

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

As an aside, do a lot of people watch those Gruden QB shows ESPN has been running for a while now? Basically, this ex-coach, who certainly wasn't a bad coach, needles the living crap out of top draft-eligible quarterbacks while they're reviewing film. Gruden makes Ted Cruz look likeable by comparison, but it's kind of revealing, because you can see just how hard these quarterbacks are working not to say anything sarcastic or defensive. Anyway, the Cook stuff with Gruden, especially when Gruden is needling him about not being elected captain, is as uncomfortable as an episode of Curb Your Enthusiasm. I only wish Gruden were doing this when Ryan Leaf was up for the draft.

Thinking about it 'cause of the question I'm surprised to realize I've seen bits of at least quite a few of those, considering how little TV I consciously watch. Among the more interesting sports TV things I've seen I suppose, since I have stuck with a segment or more with numerous guys.

[Thomkal]

Panthers have now taken at least three CB in the draft. Maybe they should have kept Josh Norman?

[claphamsa]

browns have taken 4 WRs....pretty nuts, and its funny listening to the talking heads trying to justify it.

[Julio Riddols]

Billings in the 4th gets a 100% hot rating from me. Westerman in the 5th gets me excited for the possibility that Bodine gets replaced soon.

[Young Drachma]

Vikings draft a German wide receiver straight from the German league in the 6th round. That's a neat story, but apparently he had a solid pro day and was on a lot of teams radar as a UDFA, so not a entire wild pick.

Minnesota Vikings draft German wide receiver Moritz Boehringer

[Abe Sargent]

I'm not an SEC buff or college football one, what do you folks know about QB Brandon Allen?

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

I'm not an SEC buff or college football one, what do you folks know about QB Brandon Allen?

I'm a hog fan. He followed Ryan Mallett and Tyler Wilson from the Petrino days so relatively speaking, he was a mediocre QB in 2013 and 2014. He really blossomed in 2015 and was pretty good. I think late round is all that could have been hoped for.

No character issue that I heard about, his brother Austin followed him to the hogs and he is projected starting QB for next year. Glad he is getting a shot.

[Edward64]

Glad to also see AR RB's getting a shot. Jonathan Williams to Bills and Alex Collins to Seahawks.

AC really fell alot lower than I had expected and Jonathan Williams higher since he missed his senior year.

[Thomkal]

UDFA tracker:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300...2016-nfl-draft

[MrBug708]

Wrong year

[Thomkal]

thanks, not sure why they linked last year's

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

I spend a lot of time trying to understand the draft, because I want to provide a more realistic experience.

Today, the Raiders traded up to pick Connor Cook. So this wasn't a pick made because Cook was the best-rated player on the board. It wasn't a need pick, because they had #75, where Cook was already "slipping," and they took a different Michigan State player (Calhoun, who I thought would be a high first-rounder based on 2014 play, but did drop quite a bit last season).

Derek Carr is their quarterback. He's young, and he does some things quite well, others not so well. McGloin is an adequate backup. Gilbert is an adequate clipboard carrier with potential upside. All three are young.

What algorithm looks at #75, passes on Cook, then trades up to #100 (not cheaply, either) to take him, knowing it means Gilbert is gone, and, really, so is McGloin when you consider that teams rarely protect three quarterbacks these days?

As an aside, do a lot of people watch those Gruden QB shows ESPN has been running for a while now? Basically, this ex-coach, who certainly wasn't a bad coach, needles the living crap out of top draft-eligible quarterbacks while they're reviewing film. Gruden makes Ted Cruz look likeable by comparison, but it's kind of revealing, because you can see just how hard these quarterbacks are working not to say anything sarcastic or defensive. Anyway, the Cook stuff with Gruden, especially when Gruden is needling him about not being elected captain, is as uncomfortable as an episode of Curb Your Enthusiasm. I only wish Gruden were doing this when Ryan Leaf was up for the draft.

I can understand the difficulties with this. You are basically trying to program for the randomness of the human brain and how they think.

My thinking(which is probably a lot different than yours) is that Calhoun was a "need" pick which they seen tremendous value in to pass on Cook at that point. Once Cook slipped further the value was just too high for them to pass up any longer and they found a suitable trade partner.

This adds an entire new element as well because I feel Cook is so far superior to Brissett and Hackenberg and it isnt even close. However, now that the Pats chose Brissett it makes me feel like maybe I missed something in watching him be completely mediocre every time I seen him play.

[bhlloy]

Really interesting thoughts Jim, and I agree with your conclusions. If we saw that Cook example in a bubble in a computer sim, we'd all cry that the AI was broken. Same with the Seahawks picking 3 RB or the Panthers going DL in the first round after letting Josh Norman go, to a lesser extent.

Where it gets really, really interesting is when you are essentially treating each team, GM and brain trust as a living breathing entity that all prefer some things and have some biases over the others. For example Hackenburg is a product of the fact that a lot of football people prefer NFL size, a big arm and some notion of potential over the fact that Hackenburg was absolutely terrible for most of college. It's not just overall potential (he's probably never going to be accurate, or even a better *prospect* today than Cook) it's just that he ticks some boxes that a lot of people think is an ideal QB. Taken to another level, how on earth do you account in a video game for the Jaylon Smith pick - he's genuinely a potential #1 pick who might never play again, and only Jerry Jones is that crazy/bold to make him a high second rounder.

I mean sure it's probably not that difficult to program all those variables into a video game, but how you make it coherent and organic and actually impact the sim in a positive meaningful way without making it just noise, I'd be interested to see. NBA 2k certainly tried with their myGM mode with a very small number of variables and I hated it. FM kinda does it with individual personalities but FM is a different beast and again, it doesn't necessarily do it perfectly - you very rarely see Barcelona or Arsenal playing like Barcelona and Arsenal 5 years into your career.

That was a rambling off-topic post, so I apologize, but it is interesting to me. As many people on this board have I'd imagine, I've long dreamed of saying fuck it all and developing a sports sim.

[Thomkal]

Former Coastal Carolina QB Alex Ross was invited to the Falcons rookie minicamp

[cuervo72]

Stray thought about draft potential "ranges" (as opposed to red/green bars). I have to admit that I've had a hard time really taking to the "staff affects the range spread" idea, especially in an MP setting.

What I don't have a problem with though is having ranges vary in spread on a player-by-player basis. So say, Wentz. He might be thought to have huge upside potential. But I don't think anyone thinks he is a sure thing -- many are very much believing he could wash out. Wide ranges. Contrast that with John Elway (I know, 20/20). Everyone thought he had huge upside...and that was pretty much that. He just had narrow ranges in the eyes of pretty much all scouts.

I don't know, maybe I'm not really making any sense (it may well be that this is what the game already goes for with % developed).

But back to AI decisions. In some of these cases, I don't know if its that GMs have radically different views of what players upsides might be. What they do seem to have are varying levels of risk-aversion. Jerrah will JUMP at high potential guys even if there is high risk. Other GMs seem to be more apt to take players with maybe a little less perceived upside, but less downside (or volatility). Maybe the AIs could have varying personalities. Or (thinking of how OOTP describes owners) maybe some teams are "win now" (less risk averse) and some are "rebuild" (naturally more risk averse). *shurg* Maybe some like the Raiders are just plain loco.

edit: maybe it's not even win now vs rebuild, but desperation

[Eaglesfan27]

My friend's son Anthony Sarao, Jr is now on the Colts after being an UDFA. Very exciting times and I hope he beats the odds and sticks on the team.

[stevew]

I'm hoping that injured players will show up in the FOFNext draft. Or some sort of durability rating.

[SteveMax58]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

What algorithm looks at #75, passes on Cook, then trades up to #100 (not cheaply, either) to take him, knowing it means Gilbert is gone, and, really, so is McGloin when you consider that teams rarely protect three quarterbacks these days?

The comment that we'd report it as a bug is probably spot on.

But to try and model it....I think you'd have to start with GM-specific traits, or essentially model what they value most.

So in this scenario, the Raider GM AI would have to go something like this....
(1) highly values a competent backup QB (meaning he wants 2 QBs on his roster with a particular overall rating). Not weighted above giant holes on the roster (otherwise he drafts a QB in the 1st rd), but higher than improving other positions only slightly. Which could be about right by the 4th rd depending on draft grades remaining on the board.

(2) since the 2 current backup QBs do not meet the required overall rating, the GM AI sees the potential rating of Cook as fitting the criteria.

(3) the real difficulty I think comes in at recognizing the Cowboys might want the QB and therefore needing to trade in front of them. This would mean you'd need to run all GM AIs after every pick to see if they might want to make a move. And subsequently run the risk of perpetual trading unless you kill the routine at 1 trade per pick.

(4) you'd probably also need a draft philosophy trait of some sort to determine how often the GM is willing to trade up or trade back based on roster needs, team philosophy (e.g. win now, or build for future, etc.). Probably also influenced by previous trades to an extent (less likely after a trade but increases each day back to normal level for the GM).

Or....you could make this a completely random thing. Which is precisely how it looks to us.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Former Coastal Carolina QB Alex Ross was invited to the Falcons rookie minicamp

The Bison have had a stellar draft. Aside from Wentz setting an all time record, that will never be broken, for NDSU as a #2 overall draft pick. The team also had Joe Haeg drafted in the 5th by the Colts. Then we've had 4 other players signed as UDFA's. That's a total of 6 guys, and I'd have to think that our punter is going to get signed on somewhere too. Which will leave us at 7, which is a record too.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

The Bison have had a stellar draft. Aside from Wentz setting an all time record, that will never be broken, for NDSU as a #2 overall draft pick. The team also had Joe Haeg drafted in the 5th by the Colts. Then we've had 4 other players signed as UDFA's. That's a total of 6 guys, and I'd have to think that our punter is going to get signed on somewhere too. Which will leave us at 7, which is a record too.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

The Bison have had a stellar draft. Aside from Wentz setting an all time record, that will never be broken, for NDSU as a #2 overall draft pick. The team also had Joe Haeg drafted in the 5th by the Colts. Then we've had 4 other players signed as UDFA's. That's a total of 6 guys, and I'd have to think that our punter is going to get signed on somewhere too. Which will leave us at 7, which is a record too.

Ben LeCompte was signed by the Bears today to make it 7 altogether.

[Thomkal]

Well looks like the Broncos were smart to trade up to take Paxton Lynch, the Cardinals were interested in him too:

Cardinals GM Keim: QB Paxton Lynch was in the conversation