The Obama Presidency - 2008 & 2012

[AENeuman]

Despite the long history of abuse, and these current revelations, I'm no where near my limit..

Oops, sorry, thought this was the NFL thread

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

It's a huge stain on our honor that we will all move on with no one facing any consequences.

It's a huge indictment of our collective intelligence that so many worry about copperheads & rattlesnakes so much.

[JPhillips]

Who would Jesus torture?

[AENeuman]

I show my high school Government class "The Fog of War" and have them answer the question: Is it acceptable to do evil in order to achieve a greater good? Here are some of their answers over the years:

(Engaging in evil to achieve a good) is a simple matter of healthy selfishness.

Sometimes, to save the maximum amount of lives, you need to kill a lot of people

If we can justify (doing evil) as maximizing our efficiency, then we can also justify a terrorist suicide bomber sacrificing his life to kill more of the enemy, because there is essentially no difference in the rationality of the two.

The Girl Scouts can’t fight Communism with bake sales, so I simply don’t see any other way than to fight destruction with destruction.

It is more important for us to protect our citizens and our rights than to protect foreign civilians and their rights.

Killing one person is the same as killing a million since one life already means nothing.

[lighthousekeeper]

Originally Posted by AENeuman

I show my high school Government class "The Fog of War" and have them answer the question: Is it acceptable to do evil in order to achieve a greater good? Here are some of their answers over the years:

(Engaging in evil to achieve a good) is a simple matter of healthy selfishness.

Sometimes, to save the maximum amount of lives, you need to kill a lot of people

If we can justify (doing evil) as maximizing our efficiency, then we can also justify a terrorist suicide bomber sacrificing his life to kill more of the enemy, because there is essentially no difference in the rationality of the two.

The Girl Scouts can’t fight Communism with bake sales, so I simply don’t see any other way than to fight destruction with destruction.

It is more important for us to protect our citizens and our rights than to protect foreign civilians and their rights.

Killing one person is the same as killing a million since one life already means nothing.

i'm curious why you've saved these among the many responses you've received over the years. do you regard these as the most chilling, most misguided, most insightful, or some other superlative?

[AENeuman]

Originally Posted by lighthousekeeper

i'm curious why you've saved these among the many responses you've received over the years. do you regard these as the most chilling, most misguided, most insightful, or some other superlative?

These represent many similar responses I get each time. I have a power point that I update each year and then show the students. By now there are only a couple original statements I need to add.

EDIT: This is not a complete list, there are lots of other, more mild amd pragmatic ones. I more or less wanted to show some extremes, in light of the current torture discussion.

[Edward64]

Not sure how much it'll hurt us but Russia is in deep doo-doo. Fracking 1, Russia 0.

Russia heading for crash as ruble plummets - Dec. 15, 2014

Russia's economy is crashing and its currency appears to be in free fall.

The ruble plunged by about 12% Monday, meaning it's lost nearly 50% against the dollar this year. Early Tuesday in Russia, the central bank hiked its key interest rate for a sixth time this year to 17% from 10.5%.

A double-whammy of collapsing oil prices and Western sanctions is driving up inflation. Cash is flooding out of the country and the risk that some Russian companies may default is increasing.

Russia's central bank has not only been raising interest rates, but has spent nearly $90 billion trying to defend the ruble and prevent prices spiraling out of control.

But investors are growing increasingly alarmed about the prospects for the Russian economy.

The Bank of Russia said Monday that the country could sink into a deep recession next year if oil prices remain at $60 a barrel. GDP could contract by as much as 4.7% in 2015, and then by a further 1.1% in 2016 unless oil prices pick up.

[cartman]

Fracking is in trouble as well. It is Saudi Arabia that is keeping the price-per-barrel low. The low price is also making fracking unprofitable, and the stock prices of several fracking stocks have cratered recently.

[sterlingice]

Same with oil sands in Canada. Our low oil prices right now are a byproduct of trying to crush competition.

SI

[ISiddiqui]

The Economist explaination (it also says frackers are in trouble):

Four things are now affecting the picture. Demand is low because of weak economic activity, increased efficiency, and a growing switch away from oil to other fuels. Second, turmoil in Iraq and Libya—two big oil producers with nearly 4m barrels a day combined—has not affected their output. The market is more sanguine about geopolitical risk. Thirdly, America has become the world’s largest oil producer. Though it does not export crude oil, it now imports much less, creating a lot of spare supply. Finally, the Saudis and their Gulf allies have decided not to sacrifice their own market share to restore the price. They could curb production sharply, but the main benefits would go to countries they detest such as Iran and Russia. Saudi Arabia can tolerate lower oil prices quite easily. It has $900 billion in reserves. Its own oil costs very little (around $5-6 per barrel) to get out of the ground.

The Economist explains: Why the oil price is falling | The Economist

[JPhillips]

Didn't see this coming:

On Wednesday, shortly after 12 ET, President Obama will announce major changes in U.S. policy towards Cuba. From a White House release, some of the details:

The President has instructed the Secretary of State to immediately initiate discussions with Cuba on the re-establishment of diplomatic relations with Cuba, which were severed in January 1961.
In the coming months, we will re-establish an embassy in Havana and carry out high-level exchanges and visits between our two governments as part of the normalization process.
General licenses will be made available for all authorized travelers ... under existing regulations and guidelines.
Remittance levels will be raised from $500 to $2,000 per quarter for general donative remittances to Cuban nationals ...
Licensed U.S. travelers to Cuba will be authorized to import $400 worth of goods from Cuba, of which no more than $100 can consist of tobacco products and alcohol combined.

And:

Gross' "humanitarian" release by Cuba was accompanied by a separate spy swap, the officials said. Cuba also freed a U.S. intelligence source who has been jailed in Cuba for more than 20 years, although authorities did not identify that person for security reasons. The U.S. released three Cuban intelligence agents convicted of espionage in 2001.
Cuba has agreed to release 53 political prisoners from a list of names provided by the United States.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Didn't see this coming:

Awesome.

Looking forward to checking it out!!

My sister went when she was studying abroad in Ecuador. My business partner is going in like January on some MIT Alumni trip.

I know a bunch of Canadians who go all the time.

[Dutch]

I am looking forward to that! Good news and it takes a lame duck prez and some courage to do this. Hopefully it gets done. I'm not condoning their overly socialist state, but its time to put a close on those old political rivalries.

[Dutch]

What the heck just happened with Cuba -- Fusion

[Dutch]

...and best of all...Cuban cigars for everybody!

[DaddyTorgo]

Bah. "General tourism still not allowed"

[Dutch]

Baby steps.

[NobodyHere]

I forget, why don't we trade with Cuba when we trade with former enemies such as Japan and dictatorships such as Saudi Arabia?

[molson]

If you want to go to Cuba, now's probably the best time, before the inevitable opening up to U.S. tourism. It's a little tricky and carries some risk (financial risk, you won't be locked up or anything), but lots of Americans make unlicensed trips there through other countries.

[flere-imsaho]

Obama has now opened up meaningful talks with both Cuba and Iran. It'll be an interesting legacy, that's for sure.

[JonInMiddleGA]

From one good socialist to another, not a huge surprise that this p.o.s. would do something like that.

More hopeful news from the story however

he cannot unilaterally end the longstanding U.S. economic embargo on Cuba, which was passed by Congress and would require action from lawmakers to overturn.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by molson

If you want to go to Cuba, now's probably the best time, before the inevitable opening up to U.S. tourism. It's a little tricky and carries some risk (financial risk, you won't be locked up or anything), but lots of Americans make unlicensed trips there through other countries.

Yeah, my sister did it through Mexico when she was in Ecuador.

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

I forget, why don't we trade with Cuba when we trade with former enemies such as Japan and dictatorships such as Saudi Arabia?

Because Castro fucked us after we helped him get to power is the basic answer....and the free Cuban citizens in America hated him for it...much, much more personal than Saudi or Japan. Goes back to the geography related disasters discussions.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

From one good socialist to another

Obama's not a socialist in any halfway-reasonable definition of the word. I mean, seriously Jon, you do have an education.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Dutch

...and best of all...Cuban baseball players for everybody!

Fixed.

[Coffee Warlord]

I just want local cigar shops to carry Cohibas.

[Karlifornia]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

Obama's not a socialist in any halfway-reasonable definition of the word. I mean, seriously Jon, you do have an education.

It just shows that education means nothing when put in the hands of someone who thinks they are eternally right about everything.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Dutch

What the heck just happened with Cuba -- Fusion

December 17, 2014 1:14 PM
Cuba (the Energy Drink Company) Soars 140% on Cuba (the Country) News

Shares of Cuba Beverage, an energy-drink company with sales of $9,961 last quarter, are soaring Wednesday in what appears to be the latest example of a company’s stock being affected by news events that are completely unrelated to its business.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

I forget, why don't we trade with Cuba when we trade with former enemies such as Japan and dictatorships such as Saudi Arabia?

Because Florida is an important and contested state in presidential elections.

[ISiddiqui]

re: Cuba

About damned time.

There is nothing that spreads American (realpolitik) interests more than American led capitalism taking over an economy.

[Peregrine]

Yeah we needed to open up relations with Cuba ages ago - the whole embargo thing is a Cold War leftover that has basically zero real world necessity in this day and age. Of course it's still a nightmare politically.

[Galaxy]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

Obama has now opened up meaningful talks with both Cuba and Iran. It'll be an interesting legacy, that's for sure.

It also makes things with Russia and Putin very interesting-whose economy and currency are just in a free-fall right now. I'm not an Obama fan at all, but I think this was a brilliant cheese move by him (maybe could of negotiated a little tougher, but I'll let it go).

The timing of this is a little interesting, however.

Originally Posted by JAG

December 17, 2014 1:14 PM
Cuba (the Energy Drink Company) Soars 140% on Cuba (the Country) News

Shares of Cuba Beverage, an energy-drink company with sales of $9,961 last quarter, are soaring Wednesday in what appears to be the latest example of a company’s stock being affected by news events that are completely unrelated to its business.

For all of their props over the cigars, does Cuba have a good rum culture?

[Edward64]

Wonder what Fidel is thinking now?

Regardless, I'm glad Obama did this regardless of the political implications.

[Dutch]

Several 'high-value' ISIS leaders killed in Iraq, Pentagon officials say | Fox News

ISIS leadership is getting worked over these last couple of weeks. It just doesn't pay to be a terrorist organization anymore. You get a couple of weeks or months of publicity and then blamo...you're dead.

[cartman]

Originally Posted by Galaxy

For all of their props over the cigars, does Cuba have a good rum culture?

Ever heard of Bacardi? That's where it is from.

[Edward64]

It does seem that Obama's strategy in Iraq is working. Air plus Kurds seem to have stem the ISIS momentum. Long war ahead though for Iraqis and Kurds to reclaim all the territory

Yazidis get relief, reason to cheer as Kurds take town - CNN.com

Kurdish Peshmerga fighters claimed to take control Saturday of Sinjar, the northern Iraqi town that ISIS militants stormed this summer causing minority Yazidis to flee into nearby mountains and spawning a humanitarian crisis.

The Kurdistan Region Security Council (KRSC) said on Twitter that its forces entered Sinjar district around 1:45 p.m.(9:45 a.m. ET) and, just over an hour later, "succeeded in taking complete control of it & nearby villages." The message ended "#Shingal #Kurds." Shingal is another name for Sinjar.

The advance is the latest in recent days by Kurdish forces against ISIS, which has been blamed for atrocities around the area for its treatment of those by any who resist or don't subscribe to its extremist Islamist beliefs.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Off topic, but still presidential. Pres. Bush visited a hospital as Santa to hand out gifts. Secret Service agents were dressed as elves.

Jason Cooper on Twitter: "George W. Bush showing up as Santa to visit a hospital. #MerryChristmas http://t.co/Tb9Fh0TC7b"

[Edward64]

A little good news for Obama helped by his immigration and Cuba actions.

Some former US presidents may kick themselves and ask why didn't I do that.

Poll: Obama ends year on an upswing - CNN.com

Honolulu (CNN) -- Improving views of the economy have helped hike President Barack Obama's approval rating to a 20-month high, a new CNN/ORC poll showed Tuesday, as markets climbed to record levels at news of an economy in overdrive.

More Americans still disapprove of the job Obama is doing as President. But at 48%, Obama's approval rating is at its highest point in CNN polling since May 2013.

The gains were driven by newfound backing among women, independents and millennials — groups where Obama's approval numbers jumped 10 percentage points from a month ago.

Meanwhile, Obama's approval numbers ticked down among men, Republicans and Americans between 35 and 49 years old.

The approval jump follows a late-quarter jolt in Obama's governing agenda, which gained momentum after unilateral actions on immigration and relations with Cuba. Separate surveys have showed those moves popular among the American people.

It all amounts to some welcome good news for Obama, whose unpopularity — despite consistently improving economic conditions — led to widespread losses for his party in November's midterm elections.

Tuesday's poll still reflected pervasive disaffection for Obama: 56% of respondents said the President has fallen short of their expectations, and 49% said his policies would take the country in the wrong direction.

The steady economic recovery has posed a conundrum for the White House, which wants some credit for decisions that helped pull the country from last decade's recession. To the frustration of Obama and his aides, polls until recently showed Americans largely pessimistic about the country's financial state, despite solid job growth and a bull market on Wall Street.

[Dutch]

Dow Tops 18,000 For First Time In History

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Dutch

Dow Tops 18,000 For First Time In History

Its worked out for me personally during the Obama years and the Great
Recession is over for me but know its more than stock market and nebulous GDP numbers. I'm optimistic about the future but there have been people hurt that may not recover fully.

The Psychological Damage of the Recession Is Not Going Away - Businessweek

The U.S. economy has nearly recovered. Now someone has to convince Americans. Nearly half think the United States is still in recession, according to a recent Wall Street Journal poll. Some 76 percent don’t think their children’s generation will have a better life than they did. Americans are right to think they are worse off: Even if they have recovered financially, they have become aware that the economy is riskier than it used to be. They might never bounce back from that.

Economic well-being is not limited to wealth, earnings, and employment; security matters, too. All else being equal, a riskier environment is worse, economically speaking. Financial markets may be less volatile, but structural changes in the economy have increased risk for most Americans’ largest asset: future earnings.

Lifetime earning power has been getting less certain for decades, but it took the recession to make people realize it. In 2002, one out of two Americans expected real income gains in the next five years, according to the Index of Consumer Sentiment; by 2013, only one in three did. It is well known that real median earnings didn’t increase in the last 20 years; overall earnings have become more volatile, too. The amount that the average household’s earnings fluctuate each year has been increasing (PDF) since the 1980s. Household finances also are less secure because people have less liquid savings and more debt. The economic stress associated with the recession made these trends more apparent.

The future of U.S. children also looks precarious. Tyler Cowen argues that changes in technology and trade are hollowing out the middle class, leaving a larger chasm between economic winners and losers, with very few in the middle. People who thrive in the future will do very well. The rest will have a harder time getting by. Previously, parents could safely assume that their children had good shots at landing middle-class lives. The stakes are now higher and the risk of failure larger.

[Dutch]

"With changes in technology the middle class is being hollowed out..."?

I'm reading this as "Advancements in technology is a bad thing." Are you getting the same read?

[bob]

I'm not sure its "technology is bad", but instead "technology can have a negative impact on certain parts of society that aren't prepared to deal with the change, and we haven't determined how exactly to address that yet."

[rowech]

Originally Posted by Dutch

"With changes in technology the middle class is being hollowed out..."?

I'm reading this as "Advancements in technology is a bad thing." Are you getting the same read?

It can be if it continually takes jobs away from people. Produce a bunch of product cheaper and faster sounds great until so many people don't have money to buy your product.

[SteveMax58]

Yeah another noteworthy item from that article is the rate of self-employment thats been steadily dropping for a few decades. we seems to be hitting a point where there is a lot of consolidated markets (good for efficiency in ways), a lot of outsourced low-skill jobs (to robots or Asia), and a gigantic amount of people that aren't in any way ready for the pace of change thats swept right by them and not slowing down.

We are probably going to need to have some serious conversations in this country (and the world over) on what we do with the swarms of people who won't be capable of performing the (likely inadequate anyway) amount of jobs.

I have long been an advocate for some truly massive energy infrastructure initiatives. The amount of construction work associated to something like that would be an enormous boost to the construction industry which happens to have a lot of the displaced workers.

[flere-imsaho]

I agree with a bunch of you guys. Not to make it sound all dramatic, but we're in the middle of a paradigm shift. Advances in technology and efficiency mean there aren't going to be enough jobs to go around. This is a big, big change for societies, and they're going to need to figure out how to work with that.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Dutch

I'm reading this as "Advancements in technology is a bad thing." Are you getting the same read?

In an economic sense, yes, that seems fair.

As I've said repeatedly, we have an employment age surplus not a job shortage.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

I agree with a bunch of you guys. Not to make it sound all dramatic, but we're in the middle of a paradigm shift. Advances in technology and efficiency mean there aren't going to be enough jobs to go around. This is a big, big change for societies, and they're going to need to figure out how to work with that.

People have said this in various epochs in history. It's basically a new form of Malthusian Economics. Technology usually tends to increase productivity, but also provides work. The greatest technological boom in history was the Industrial Revolution, and contrary to the protestations of the Luddites, things worked out ok for working people in the long run.

There may be short run slow downs of employment and retraining required, but to think its a long term trend of no work just ignores economic history completely.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

There may be short run slow downs of employment and retraining required, but to think its a long term trend of no work just ignores economic history completely.

That's fair. So, speculation time. What's the new work going to be?

The workers who lost their jobs when factories and automation came along tended not to get re-employed, but their children found jobs in offices (wild generalizations here). What's the next generation going to do?

This is not meant sarcastically. I'm actually interested in ideas.

[Edward64]

My thoughts -

IoT - Internet of Things
Goldman Sachs | Macroeconomic Insights - The Internet of Things: The Next Mega-Trend

The Internet of Things, or IoT, is emerging as the next technology mega-trend, with repercussions across the business spectrum. By connecting to the Internet billions of everyday devices – ranging from fitness bracelets to industrial equipment – the IoT merges the physical and online worlds, opening up a host of new opportunities and challenges for companies, governments and consumers

Energy - I'm not convinced about green/reusable/sustainable energy technologies but do think overall energy will be in the forefront for a while (e.g. fracking, electric cars)


Nice to have but wishful thinking as they are too narrow ...

Healthcare - from home healthcare services to high end drugs to treat seniors

Education - I think my kids are getting a good PS education and think they will get a good college education. I do think there is an opportunity to emphasize trade schools (e.g. they can't be outsourced) for those that do not choose college.

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

That's fair. So, speculation time. What's the new work going to be?

The workers who lost their jobs when factories and automation came along tended not to get re-employed, but their children found jobs in offices (wild generalizations here). What's the next generation going to do?

This is not meant sarcastically. I'm actually interested in ideas.

The arts. Or maybe blogging. We could always use more bloggers.