Werewolf XXVI: The Thing - GAME OVER! THINGS WIN!!!

[Blade6119]

Interesting...hoops on king, barkeep not voting yet, and tangle(the guy they both tried to string up before) also out there. I have a feeling we will see that vote count get interesting(especially with kings double vote)

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

Ok, if you want to assume hoops is good or went past two nights, that means you assume hoops was good night 3/4..then that means the things converted the seer on night 3, the day he revealed...i think we have proven they have balls. Question is whose balls are they.

You have played in far more of these games than I have. Tell me who has the stones to pull risky moves off and maybe we have some more candidates.

I would say you, Barkeep, and hoopsguy, from my experience.

[Raiders Army]

From what I remember and know, Barkeep and hoops have GMed WW games on FOFC. I don't remember Blade doing one. That being said, I think there may be a trifecta there with Barkeep, hoops, and tangle. Throw in a silent partner or two and that may be all of the wolves.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

That's what I think, too. Problem is, I think if we miss this vote, it's game over.

I agree with this logic. I think there's a chance we miss with hoops, but I'm certain barkeep will burn when tested.

[hoopsguy]

Blade, cycling through untested is not in and of itself a winning strategy - as that number grows, it becomes more likely that the nightly convert is one of the people who has tested clear.

I'm all for going after someone who is untested, if they are the person I think is a Thing. I've stated that I'm playing percentages in many cases to try and get around the fact that trust lists are severely handicapped in this game. So I'm more inclined to trust someone who has been shown to be clear. But when that strategy is announced and agreed upon it becomes easier for them to play against.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

You have played in far more of these games than I have. Tell me who has the stones to pull risky moves off and maybe we have some more candidates.

I would say you, Barkeep, and hoopsguy, from my experience.

Hoopsguy, dubb(who quit), Raiders, i dont know about barkeep, alan t isnt playing, and neither is sndvls...id say in this game, hoops/raiders/myself/ and maybe cronin...barkeep might, i just havent seen it in awhile from him...but he is a calculated player, as is hoops...and with it becoming quite clear the things converted quiet players i see only hoops and barkeep making that move...so by elimination i think hoops...

And if hoops, the bodyguard was never a threat(like how he hasnt done anything all game...not one hit)...he "missed" on what night to guard.

If barkeep, he just expected hoops to go night 4(which i would expect hoops to do to)...so its tricky

[hoopsguy]

Going back to look up all of our vote counts ... time to see if there was one where Dubb/King should have changed the outcome based on his double vote.

I know off the top of my head that he would not have changed the Saldana vote on Day 2 because he left it on me instead of going with one of the leading candidates (Saldana vs Barkeep).

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

From what I remember and know, Barkeep and hoops have GMed WW games on FOFC. I don't remember Blade doing one. That being said, I think there may be a trifecta there with Barkeep, hoops, and tangle. Throw in a silent partner or two and that may be all of the wolves.

I have not, they have...as for things, that was my list yesterday...

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Blade, cycling through untested is not in and of itself a winning strategy - as that number grows, it becomes more likely that the nightly convert is one of the people who has tested clear.

I'm all for going after someone who is untested, if they are the person I think is a Thing. I've stated that I'm playing percentages in many cases to try and get around the fact that trust lists are severely handicapped in this game. So I'm more inclined to trust someone who has been shown to be clear. But when that strategy is announced and agreed upon it becomes easier for them to play against.

Exactly, smoke and mirrors are key. I trusted king from the second he announced his role power, not his description. I merely asked you to reveal and him for smoke and mirrors to see how you would play it. You bit exactly like i expected..i gave you a possible out, and you ran with it. Im not saying its damning, but you of all people should know a lot of my comments are smoke-screens for alterior methods

[hoopsguy]

Blade, as far as I know I had not tipped my hand at all about being the bodyguard until well into Day 5. If someone did suspect I had that role before then I have not seen a comment in this thread about it. So I don't think that Barkeep (as your designated Thing, but the same holds true for any Thing) was "counting on me guarding on Night 4". They should have had to try and figure out what the average player would be doing on that night unless they had narrowed down the bodyguard role to a couple of players.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Blade, as far as I know I had not tipped my hand at all about being the bodyguard until well into Day 5. If someone did suspect I had that role before then I have not seen a comment in this thread about it. So I don't think that Barkeep (as your designated Thing, but the same holds true for any Thing) was "counting on me guarding on Night 4". They should have had to try and figure out what the average player would be doing on that night unless they had narrowed down the bodyguard role to a couple of players.

I agree, and the average player in my mind would have waited till night 4...just makes sense after some discussion about CW's protection that night...i agree you gave minimal hints

[hoopsguy]

Right, so by catching a player in a lie I'm the one who is a Thing. Nice detective work there, Holmes

If I had not guarded you last night I would be convinced (yet again) that you are playing for Team Thing. He has not contested the information that I have brought forward. The Things are continuing to play the silent strategy that has served them so well the last few days. Which may be effective, but it is stifling some of the fun of the game for me.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Right, so by catching a player in a lie I'm the one who is a Thing. Nice detective work there, Holmes

If I had not guarded you last night I would be convinced (yet again) that you are playing for Team Thing. He has not contested the information that I have brought forward. The Things are continuing to play the silent strategy that has served them so well the last few days. Which may be effective, but it is stifling some of the fun of the game for me.

You didnt catch him in a lie, but you have done admirably as a thing or villager today. It was a genious catch, granted. But i contest the validity of your catch.

As for your idea on things, you say they are playing silent...barkeep is a silent as a log, yet here you are backing him...that seems rather ironic

[Swaggs]

hoops, why the confidence in Barkeep anyway?

[kingfc22]

I have to go to work. I'll try to get back online, but I can't guarantee it.

Down with the Things!

[path12]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

We have more than half of the people playing the game in the room right now, but no one besides Blade or I are talking about this Kingfc22. Hmm ... wonder how many PMs are flying right now trying to figure out how to address this?

Just for the record, I've got the thread open and am trying to keep up with the discussion, but had a project handed to me this morning that's proving to be a bitch......so I'll keep observing but don't have the time to really pick through and debate right now.......suffice it to say my vote remains on hoops right now but I'm listening to all sides and am not locked anywhere.

[hoopsguy]

Swaggs, I already tried to answer why I think Barkeep is more likely to be human than most of the players in the game. It is in Post #2367. I would normally cut/paste it but it is a couple of paragraphs long and only one page back. I'll be happy to expand on it or answer any questions if you want to follow up on this.

I would love to argue for putting King and I in a tie today and see what happens (he has double votes, I should be tested, right?) but I'm worried that we lose the game if they convert every night. That said, if people are going to insist on testing me I would like for it to take place by clearing two of us at the same time.

Having a hard time finding the Day 3 votes but still working on this theory of reviewing King's votes (should be up in next few minutes):
Day 1: post #216
Day 2/1: post #417
Day 2/2: post #609

[Blade6119]

Voting king is a waste of time...you guys have all ignored me and my comments for 5 days now...dont not ignore this comment...for today, do not worry about king. His reveal cleared him for me, and it should for you as well...i repeat, for today

[hoopsguy]

Blade, I really want to know (either now or after the deadline) what it was about his reveal that cleared him for you.

I thought it was a well-crafted fake PM but without the magic words used by Dubb on Day 1 it doesn't hold up for me at all.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

Voting king is a waste of time...you guys have all ignored me and my comments for 5 days now...dont not ignore this comment...for today, do not worry about king. His reveal cleared him for me, and it should for you as well...i repeat, for today

Agreed. I am not thinking about king today at all.

My vote is sitting on Barkeep and I am happy with it. As long as the final vote lands on Barkeep or hoops today, I think we are making a good move for today. Hopefully we can get both today.

I am out for awhile but will try to check back in before the deadline.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Blade, I really want to know (either now or after the deadline) what it was about his reveal that cleared him for you.

I thought it was a well-crafted fake PM but without the magic words used by Dubb on Day 1 it doesn't hold up for me at all.

I cant/wont say right now, but its in relation to game balancing...just trust me today, whether or not your a thing

[Blade6119]

well then, i think im out of here, maybe for the day...best of luck with the vote everyone, hang one of barkeep or hoops, and we have a shot...

[hoopsguy]

OK, going through each of the votes up to this point has not confirmed/denied the King "two-vote" ability:


Day 1 (post #216): Saldana (no impact: 4-2 Jeebs with four, many with two)
Day 2/1 (near post #417): Hoops (no impact: 5-4-2 Saldana-Barkeep)
Day 2/2 (post #609): Hoops (no impact: 5 for Dubb, two players tied with two)
Day 3 (post #1244): Coffee (leading vote getter)
Day 4 (post #1550, subtract Anxiety from Dubb): Anxiety (does not impact the vote)
Day 5 (post #1797): no vote, Dubb is out, King not yet in for him
Day 6/1 (last count #1965): no vote
Day 6/2 (post #2112, only vote switch after this was me to Jeeber): Barkeep (no impact: 7-3-2-1 were vote totals)
Day 7 (post #2244): Blade (no impact, runaway)


So the only day that there was a chance for him (in this case Dubb) to use the ability he chose not to do so. We know that Dubb was clean at this point in the game. We know that he was tested again when Jeebs invoked his Duke ability.

Color me a little less convinced than I was before, but I still don't get how Dubb comes out on Day 1 as simple/brilliant but King has a role description today that doesn't involve this at all. And it sounds like he isn't going to be around for the rest of the day to convince me otherwise.

[Raiders Army]

I'm leery of this pile on hoops and Barkeep's getting the bye. He may be out legitimately, but I'd like to hear something from him before the lynch tonight.

[Swaggs]

Anyone have the vote total handy?

[hoopsguy]

I still show the same info I had back at Post #2400:


Hoopsguy - Blade (2324), Cronin (2327), Raiders (2335), path (2342), King (2393)

Barkeep - mckerney (2332), Jeeber (2338), Anxiety (2344), Swaggs (2350)

King - Hoopsguy (2360)

Not Voted: Barkeep, WVUFAN, Tanglewood

[st.cronin]

That's hardly a bandwagon on hoops. I think hoops is the best target, for a variety of reasons.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I still show the same info I had back at Post #2400:


Hoopsguy - Blade (2324), Cronin (2327), Raiders (2335), path (2342), King (2393)

Barkeep - mckerney (2332), Jeeber (2338), Anxiety (2344), Swaggs (2350)

King - Hoopsguy (2360)

Not Voted: Barkeep, WVUFAN, Tanglewood

It's likely the top two vote gettings are both things in my opinion, what concerns me is the closeness of the vote leaves it way to open to allowing the things to force a tie. Hell, with the risk of WVU and tangle not voting there could potentially be more things voting today than scientists, though if we're lucky at least one of those two is a thing. King could be the one to save us if he's able to decide between using one or two votes and avoid a tie though.

Even with the chance that king can save us, I do ask those voting hoops right now to consider switching your vote barkeep, because if we test barkeep today we'll still have a chance to test hoops on our second vote today. That I'm sure of.

[Raiders Army]

Hmmm...I'd rather not have king waste his ability at this point with a couple hours to go. Hopefully somebody will make the deciding vote or hoops will change his vote to Barkeep. At the very least we need to avoid a tie vote.

I would say that if Barkeep shows up, he'll vote for hoops (if not, he's a Thing since he wants a non-test). If hoops is a good guy, then he'll switch his vote to Barkeep to avoid the non-test. Those two votes will cancel each other out. The wildcards are WVUFan and Tanglewood. Unless one of them comes on soon, I'll have to stay online near the vote deadline so I can move my vote if necessary.

[Raiders Army]

There are a few different scenarios that I'm afraid might happen for a non-test:

1. king uses his ability to vote twice and hoops changes his vote to barkeep.
2. barkeep votes for hoops and hoops changes his vote to barkeep.
3. Tangle or WVU comes on and votes for hoops and hoops changes his vote to barkeep.

A lot of this is dependent on hoops and if he decides to leave his vote or changes it to barkeep. If he is good, then he's the only one who knows it and unless he is positive for barkeep, then he should switch his vote.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

Hmmm...I'd rather not have king waste his ability at this point with a couple hours to go.

I don't see it as being wasted if it's what keeps us from losing, though I also would prefer a situation where it didn't need to be used (thus my urging everyone to vote barkeep).

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

There are a few different scenarios that I'm afraid might happen for a non-test:

1. king uses his ability to vote twice and hoops changes his vote to barkeep.
2. barkeep votes for hoops and hoops changes his vote to barkeep.
3. Tangle or WVU comes on and votes for hoops and hoops changes his vote to barkeep.

A lot of this is dependent on hoops and if he decides to leave his vote or changes it to barkeep. If he is good, then he's the only one who knows it and unless he is positive for barkeep, then he should switch his vote.

Hopefully the decision to use his ability could be made after the deadline, and he can inform schmidty to use it to avoid a tie.

[st.cronin]

I will be around at the deadline and will move my vote to avoid a tie. king, don't use your power.

[Blade6119]

A tie will not happen today if i can help it. Its 4 here, how many hours till the deadline?

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I will be around at the deadline and will move my vote to avoid a tie. king, don't use your power.

King might as well, as tonight he should be a thing

[hoopsguy]

On the road home at this point, should be there for the deadline tonight.

Did King indicate somewhere that this power is one-time use? Because there are several posts here that seem to indicate this ...

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

King might as well, as tonight he should be a thing

I'm more worried about him accidentally using his power to FORCE a tie.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

On the road home at this point, should be there for the deadline tonight.

Did King indicate somewhere that this power is one-time use? Because there are several posts here that seem to indicate this ...

He said in his original reveal he could twice a game vote worth two posts

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I'm more worried about him accidentally using his power to FORCE a tie.

Both of his votes should fall to hoopsguy, so as long as people dont start swapping to barkeep it should be fine...with kings two, its 6-4 hoops...hoops swaps it 6-5, but barkeep should vote hoops making 7-6...i dont see a tie yet, maybe tangle will create(WVU is not playing anymore im pretty sure)

[path12]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

He said in his original reveal he could twice a game vote worth two posts

What if he was converted last night and can break a tie in the things favor?

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by path12

What if he was converted last night and can break a tie in the things favor?

You can imagine that, i can only say i trust him 99.9999999% today

[Blade6119]

dola, you have to think for yourself...ive said for days i wanted hoops or barkeep(and tangle), and im doing everything i can to get hoops or barkeep tested...

[path12]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

dola, you have to think for yourself...ive said for days i wanted hoops or barkeep(and tangle), and im doing everything i can to get hoops or barkeep tested...

And I agree with you that it should be one or the other. I just want to make sure it's the right one (though I'm about 60% convinced it's both).

[tanglewood]

Well, I'm not too sure what to make of the King pm thing. If we assume that dubb didn't have brilliant in his PM and then futher assume that he was therefore a Thing, then he would've been a Thing from the start. If we assume 2 starting Things and Quik being a Thing also then that's impossible, so I find the scenario that he's a Thing unlikely.

[tanglewood]

Well, I have been an advocate of testing Barkeep earlier in the game, and he seemed to clear himself in the CW lynch, but obvoiusly that is now a few days ago now. Hoops, well I kinda suspected him in the first few days, but then he was cleared and seemed to play more helpful to the scientists cause. However, I agree with those who have noticed him acting more suspiciously recently. TO be perfectly honest, I think we have already lost this game but even if we haven't we need to hit two wolves today and probably tomorrow to stand a chance of winning.

Vote Hoopsguy

[Raiders Army]

At this point we enter hazy territory. Depending on barkeep, we might have a tie at this point. Barkeep, hoops, and king's actions are the ones that may make the difference at this point. WVUFan is AWOL.

[hoopsguy]

Sigh ...

UNVOTE KINGFC22
VOTE BARKEEP

[hoopsguy]

I'm much more convinced that King is a Thing than I am about Barkeep. But the votes are putting me in a position where I have to try and preserve myself.

I'm beyond annoyed that people are just disregarding King's obvious discrepency today. I'm hoping that if there is a tomorrow that I'm able to be as restrained in my "I Told You So's" as Blade was today. All in all, I thought he was very classy about his test last night.

[tanglewood]

The big thing I'm trying to work out is how the Things are trying to manipulate this vote. Surely they'd be trying pretty much all-out to get a scientist tested, if they get one today they've pretty much won (might even have actually won, depending on numbers).

[tanglewood]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I'm hoping that if there is a tomorrow that I'm able to be as restrained in my "I Told You So's" as Blade was today. All in all, I thought he was very classy about his test last night.

Tru dat. Sorry Blade for going after you two votes running.