The Trump Presidency – 2016

[JPhillips]

And if you did that in any volume, eventually when audits are going to be done both financially and epidemiologically, you're running the tremendous risk of legal problems.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Huh, that's interesting. I filed my tax return the week the stimulus checks went out and I got my refund in 3-4 days. I used TurboTax and direct deposit, FWIW.

Her employer switched payroll providers midway thru last year. Apparently one of them submitted her W2 earnings super late so our return had significant issues cause of non matching information. They said it was under 60 day review and it’s been like 70+ days. Another lady my wife works with is in same boat. It would be one thing if I was getting audited or something. But it’s just sitting on a pile apparently

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by stevew

Her employer switched payroll providers midway thru last year. Apparently one of them submitted her W2 earnings super late so our return had significant issues cause of non matching information. They said it was under 60 day review and it’s been like 70+ days. Another lady my wife works with is in same boat. It would be one thing if I was getting audited or something. But it’s just sitting on a pile apparently

Eesh, that's terrible. And probably working from home is slowing the IRS down even more right now.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Butter

I've already started seeing posts on Facebook about how the numbers are artificially inflated because "hospitals get paid more for COVID-19 deaths". So now hospitals are in on the war against Trump.

My mother in law is posting how CDC is actually saying there are less deaths than reported... by using a separate count the CDC uses of when they receive death certificates... where on the bottom of the page it says numbers may lag between 1-8 WEEKS because of delays in processing and mailing of said death certificates.

I'm close to blocking her... I've already unfollowed her. And she works as a nurse at a hospice...

[panerd]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

The thing is, for me, I know that I am logically supportive of the general argument about trade-offs... like the general argument that we could drop auto accidents to zero but it would mean huge inconvenience and cost, so we say it's okay for X people do die over time in car wrecks. I get that as an intellectually honest argument.

However, I'm a victim of my own hatred. So if it's team Trump saying that, then I am just magnetically pulled to the side of "that's despicable and inhuman," and I just feel better about being on the other side from them. I'm vaguely aware this is so, but am close to powerless against it.

And yes, I see the political calculus and they have surely gameplanned out how to make it good for re-election regardless of whether there are giant piles of corpses (it's China's fault, and Obama's fault, and the Democrats' fault) or not (Trump saved America and the economy and presumably Christmas).

I find myself a bit of a cynic/skeptic/contrarian so on here I generally try to counter argue the mostly liberal viewpoints, on a Mizzou board I frequent I am countering conservative arguments, and on reason.com (as Howard Roark) I find myself countering Libertarian arguments. Sadly though I do feel like there a large number of people kind of pulling for this not to get better just because... Trump. I applaud some who admit it, some won't admit it, and some sadly don't even know it. Look Trump's an ass, hopefully he gets voted out in a landslide, is mismanaging this thing horribly but he really could still stumble upon the perfect storm of the virus dying back for the summer, it not exactly working how we think, and above all the actual number of cases being astronomically higher than we think. And I know this for some reason would piss people off but this would be fantastic news for me, my family, life in general. That some people fight so hard for all of these great things to not be true is almost as dumbfounding as Trump's support.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

My mother in law is posting how CDC is actually saying there are less deaths than reported... by using a separate count the CDC uses of when they receive death certificates... where on the bottom of the page it says numbers may lag between 1-8 WEEKS because of delays in processing and mailing of said death certificates.

I'm close to blocking her... I've already unfollowed her. And she works as a nurse at a hospice...

Blocked mine. Best decision ever.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by spleen1015

We're all willing to say here that Trump is doing a lot of bad shit. Why is not ok to think that hospitals won't take advantage of the situation too so that they can get more money?

I'm sure doctors and medical examiners are falsifying records and risking their medical license for this.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I'm sure doctors and medical examiners are falsifying records and risking their medical license for this.

I agree with you 100%. Whatever "inflated numbers" might be caused by intentional over-reporting to get more money amounts to, at best, a rounding error. It is certainly dwarfed by the under-counting caused by the lack of tests.

But here we see the political genius of Trump and his social media team. The conversation we are having should be about the colossal ongoing failure of his administration in dealing with COVID-19. That is all we should be talking about. His numbers right now should be below Nixon at the end. But that is, somehow, not the conversation we are having.

Instead, we are having to expend energy arguing about the accuracy of the numbers. And, of course, a Trump critic cannot prove with 100% certainty that every single person whose cause of death is listed as COVID-19 actually died of COVID-19. Which means that things are "disputed," and we all retreat into our Red/Blue corners.

And that is how Trump's 538 approval rating is effectively unchanged by COVID.

tl;dr Trump and his social media allies are really really good at the messaging side of this.

[thesloppy]

Trump, officials don't wear masks on trip to mask-making facility | TheHill

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

I agree with you 100%. Whatever "inflated numbers" might be caused by intentional over-reporting to get more money amounts to, at best, a rounding error. It is certainly dwarfed by the under-counting caused by the lack of tests.

But here we see the political genius of Trump and his social media team. The conversation we are having should be about the colossal ongoing failure of his administration in dealing with COVID-19. That is all we should be talking about. His numbers right now should be below Nixon at the end. But that is, somehow, not the conversation we are having.

Instead, we are having to expend energy arguing about the accuracy of the numbers. And, of course, a Trump critic cannot prove with 100% certainty that every single person whose cause of death is listed as COVID-19 actually died of COVID-19. Which means that things are "disputed," and we all retreat into our Red/Blue corners.

And that is how Trump's 538 approval rating is effectively unchanged by COVID.

tl;dr Trump and his social media allies are really really good at the messaging side of this.

It isn't genius. This country just doesn't put much value on lives. An elementary school got mowed down and we shrugged our shoulders.

If thousands a day die it is fine as long as Applebees remains open.

[Atocep]

I enjoy listening to people that have never spoken about the economy prior to Trump, hard own a damn thing, and have zero investments talk about the importance of opening up for the good of the economy. They just need to man up and admit they're scared Trump isn't going to get reelected and think reopening is his best chance.

[JPhillips]

Hard to forgive the writers for being so heavy handed and playing Live and Let Die during Trump's factory visit.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by stevew

Blocked mine. Best decision ever.

My mother in law is as hard core a Trump supporter as you will find. Totally brainwashed beyond reason. She also is as high risk as you get. Had a heart transplant ten years ago, compromised immune system, obese, kidney problems, etc...

She has taken this more seriously than anyone I know. Tonight she went crazy on facebook. Posting Trey Gowdy conspiracy theories, saying Pelosi et all are destroying our freedom while we shelter in place, and posting we have had a taste of socialism by having our food and movement limited and a curfew.

[GrantDawg]

A nurse that works for a local hospital told my wife about the whole wing they have dedicated to virus victims. She described the number of deaths that she saw in week as a higher number than is being reported for the county during the last two months. I think the numbers are definitely being under-reported here.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Lathum

and posting we have had a taste of socialism by having our food and movement limited and a curfew.

I really like capitalism. I do not want America to become socialist or to elect actual socialist politicians. That would be really bad.

So I REALLY hate this lazy habit on the right of calling everything they don't like "socialism."

President Obama leads the charge to implement a market-based plan to lower health care costs while increasing access, and the GOP screams "socialism!"

States implement temporary shelter-in-place orders that are supported by 80% of the public (as of now; it was probably higher when they were first done) to stop people from dying. And the GOP screams "this is socialism!"

Is it any wonder why such a disturbingly high percentage of Gen Z is in favor of socialism? The GOP keeps taking pretty good non-socialist ideas and saying "this is what socialism is." If I were young and impressionable, I'd start to think that if this is socialism, then sign me up.

[Vince, Pt. II]

Originally Posted by Lathum

My mother in law is as hard core a Trump supporter as you will find. Totally brainwashed beyond reason. She also is as high risk as you get. Had a heart transplant ten years ago, compromised immune system, obese, kidney problems, etc...

She has taken this more seriously than anyone I know. Tonight she went crazy on facebook. Posting Trey Gowdy conspiracy theories, saying Pelosi et all are destroying our freedom while we shelter in place, and posting we have had a taste of socialism by having our food and movement limited and a curfew.

It's odd, my Mother-in-Law is a pretty staunch Republican, but has had the exact opposite reaction. She's been super good about self-quarantine herself for fear of getting the virus, and has been insanely critical of Trump, et Al for their response. She's also come completely around on Gavin Newsom's handling of the event.

We've had some...problems with her before, so I was worried that she would be even more challenging than usual, but it's been pleasant to see her react this way.

[Vince, Pt. II]

Dola: to be clear, the pleasantness I'm talking about is her embracing social distancing and keeping herself safe, not her political views/opinions.

[RainMaker]

Was just a matter of time.

Axios: Trump has complained to advisers about the way coronavirus deaths are being calculated, suggesting the real numbers are actually lower — and a number of his senior aides share this view, according to sources with direct knowledge.https://t.co/j7W4V6qn80

— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) May 6, 2020

[Flasch186]

Why not? The cons worked this far.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Steve Deace has been on a helluva roll lately. He nails my feelings on Trump's future possibly better than I could have myself, and with considerably less profanity than I would have resorted to.

Commentary: Trump is in danger of turning coronavirus into his Iraq - TheBlaze

edit to add: And I will say one thing about this piece: consider how infrequently I post in this thread, and consider that a sign of just how strongly this commentary must match my feelings.

[IlliniCub]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Was just a matter of time.

Axios: Trump has complained to advisers about the way coronavirus deaths are being calculated, suggesting the real numbers are actually lower — and a number of his senior aides share this view, according to sources with direct knowledge.https://t.co/j7W4V6qn80

— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) May 6, 2020

"It turns out all those deaths were actually a result of the people stopped breathing"

[thesloppy]

There doesn't appear to be any rhyme or reason to any of the re-opening 'plans', which is tough to take confidence from. Florida and Georgia have re-opened while recording their highest death rates, over 50 per day, while Oregon has 100 covid deaths all-time and will probably stay locked down for another month.

[CU Tiger]

Not sure if better here or the covid thread, but...

This seems like a horrible hill to die on perceptionally for Cuomo:
Health workers that volunteered to come to NY during pandemic have to pay state income tax: Cuomo

At times I think the D wants Trump re-elected...

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Is it any wonder why such a disturbingly high percentage of Gen Z is in favor of socialism? The GOP keeps taking pretty good non-socialist ideas and saying "this is what socialism is." If I were young and impressionable, I'd start to think that if this is socialism, then sign me up.

I mean seriously.

These things don't even approach the Social Democracy in most European countries. The closest things to Socialism, to be honest, is using the Defense Production Act to mandate making of PPEs and keeping meat processing plants open.

And when the GOP goes the ACA is 'socialized medicine', then for some it's no big deal when someone proposes Medicare for All - because it's going to be called socialized medicine, rendering the term meaningless.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by CU Tiger

Not sure if better here or the covid thread, but...

This seems like a horrible hill to die on perceptionally for Cuomo:
Health workers that volunteered to come to NY during pandemic have to pay state income tax: Cuomo

At times I think the D wants Trump re-elected...

The article is a little tricky. I didn't read that Cuomo said out-of-state volunteers would have to pay NY state taxes.

But I do agree with you that if Cuomo did say/insists on it, it's pretty stupid and he deserves to be crushed for it.

[molson]

I would assume he means out-of state paid medical workers will have to pay taxes on their New York income.

Cities and states are so fucked, I don't think there's much of a choice there. Even good people in important jobs have to pay taxes, they're the ones most likely to still be working right now.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by molson

Cities and states are so fucked, I don't think there's much of a choice there. Even good people in important jobs have to pay taxes, they're the ones most likely to still be working right now.

Right and unlike the federal government, states can't issue debt to be able to run deficits in the same way, which further constrains them.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Steve Deace has been on a helluva roll lately. He nails my feelings on Trump's future possibly better than I could have myself, and with considerably less profanity than I would have resorted to.

Commentary: Trump is in danger of turning coronavirus into his Iraq - TheBlaze

edit to add: And I will say one thing about this piece: consider how infrequently I post in this thread, and consider that a sign of just how strongly this commentary must match my feelings.

I appreciate your sharing this perspective.

I don't think that Trump wants to lose in November. But I also wonder if he wants to be President anymore either. The job got a lot less fun around early March.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by CU Tiger

Not sure if better here or the covid thread, but...

This seems like a horrible hill to die on perceptionally for Cuomo:
Health workers that volunteered to come to NY during pandemic have to pay state income tax: Cuomo

At times I think the D wants Trump re-elected...

Not really good to put a jock-type tax on health care professionals. Bad optics.

[JPhillips]

How should NY handle the tax? Lots of people from NJ and CT work in NY and pay taxes. How would you separate who does and who doesn't pay? Even if you want to change it, I'm sure it would take legislation.

[cuervo72]

I assume travel nurses have to deal with this as a matter of course.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

I appreciate your sharing this perspective.

I don't think that Trump wants to lose in November. But I also wonder if he wants to be President anymore either. The job got a lot less fun around early March.

all he's been doing is campaigning and playing up to the lowest common demoninator

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

I appreciate your sharing this perspective.

I don't think that Trump wants to lose in November. But I also wonder if he wants to be President anymore either. The job got a lot less fun around early March.

I don't think he wants to lose, but I firmly believe he's done a shockingly steady job of putting himself in position to do just that with his erratic messaging in the past month particularly.

To me the key passage, while not as vividly described, in that commentary was this one

My inbox is overrun with the types of voters Trump must have all of to win in November ...The vast majority of our audience are conservatives that would never show up at a rally, but would love to rally to him come November

If, say, 20% of his supporters stay home in November, he's done for. He's probably already put at least half that number in jeopardy -- feel free to consider me a prime example -- so his margin for error gets thinner by the day. I feel like he's taking too many of those votes for granted and that he's dead wrong in thinking they're guaranteed solely on his own strengths.

If Biden picks Abrams, yeah, I'll show up and vote for him anyway BUT if Sleepy Joe plays it safe, he may just win by default.

[Lathum]

I don't think Trump wants to be president anymore but he is way too much of an egomaniac to ever let anyone know.

[cuervo72]

If he doesn't have to do anything other than be on TV and give stuff to "friends" (or relatives) I think he's fine remaining president.

[AlexB]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

I don't think he wants to lose, but I firmly believe he's done a shockingly steady job of putting himself in position to do just that with his erratic messaging in the past month particularly.

To me the key passage, while not as vividly described, in that commentary was this one



If, say, 20% of his supporters stay home in November, he's done for. He's probably already put at least half that number in jeopardy -- feel free to consider me a prime example -- so his margin for error gets thinner by the day. I feel like he's taking too many of those votes for granted and that he's dead wrong in thinking they're guaranteed solely on his own strengths.

If Biden picks Abrams, yeah, I'll show up and vote for him anyway BUT if Sleepy Joe plays it safe, he may just win by default.

That’s the exact thought I had reading your post before I got to the end - if he carries on like this the best Democrat strategy is to say and do nothing, and let him hoist his own petard.

[tarcone]

Imagine your Dad was a successful businessman who made 10s of millions of dollars. And you grew up in that environment. But you were not quite the businessman your Dad was, but you had a great personality, though and entitled one. You tried to work your magic and were somewhat successful. Though your personality only took you so far. Sometimes it wasnt enough and you lost tons of money. Then you discovered reality TV before it was really big, but you had the personality to make it work and your Daddies money to back you. And you were a popular guy on TV. Then you decided to run for president. And you won. And the people who you most wanted to be with were the ultra rich. Who do you think that president would be most likely to help?

Yeah, we are living in the movie Less Than Zero

[RainMaker]

The problem with the editorial is that I don't think Trump can "re-open" America. Nor can any Governor or Mayor. They can all get on TV, hold hands and proclaim "America is open for business!" and it won't matter.

What percent of people are going to sit down in a packed restaurant or theater as long as the virus is a threat? I love going to sporting events but I'm not sitting in a basketball arena with 20,000 other people right now. Nor am I going to see Guns N Roses at Wrigley Field in July despite how badly I've wanted to see them play in person.

Sure a segment of the population will do those things. If a hotspot pops up in their community, maybe they stop or think they fight through it. But it won't be enough people to turn the economy around or keep most businesses open.

The only way to open the economy is to get the virus under control so that people feel comfortable.

[JPhillips]

In an Economist poll, are you better off now than four years ago split 30 yes to 50 no.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

In an Economist poll, are you better off now than four years ago split 30 yes to 50 no.

What. . . what were those 30 people doing four years ago? Were they in prison? Who is saying that they are better off during a global pandemic?

[Brian Swartz]

While I think it's hogwash for that many people to say it … it would actually be true for me. That's mostly because of things I worked on during those years though. Just saying that there are some people for whom things are better, just like there were people who did well in the great recession or whatever. There's always outliers.

30%? Nah, that I'm not buying.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

What. . . what were those 30 people doing four years ago? Were they in prison? Who is saying that they are better off during a global pandemic?

Political cronies who went into medical supply price gouging?

SI

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

The only way to open the economy is to get the virus under control so that people feel comfortable.

Yup.

[Ben E Lou]

Wait. Isn’t 30/50 absolutely TERRIBLE??? Apart from a pandemic or coming out of a major time of recession/inflation, when that question is asked, “Yeah, I’m doing better” should be the default. When Reagan threw it out there in ‘80 and again in ‘84, it was “brilliant,” but when deconstructed, it was shown that in most times, it’s a yes for most people. My wife and I have the same jobs we had four years ago, but we have 48 more months worth of equity, 48 more months of paying down debt and increasing savings, just...48 more months of income. We haven’t gotten any huge raises or made any financial moves that “paid off” or that we should pat ourselves on the back over; we’ve just not had any terrible stuff happen.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

What percent of people are going to sit down in a packed restaurant or theater as long as the virus is a threat?

The difference in today's traffic here vs Monday's was dramatic. Compared to summer (which is fair since the university is emptied out) it was busier than normal. In a county that skews hard left.

In three separates outings - from pet stores to grocery to sit down dining -- this week I've seen literally one customer under 60 wearing a mask.

I've seen people elbow to elbow two dozen deep for a $20 burger at a (pseudo) food truck parked outside the (still 'officially' closed) gastro pub.

Get government the fuck out of the way and watch how quickly people return.

[Lathum]

Pandemic aside we are much better off then we were 4 years ago. We have more in savings, investment accounts up even in the current market. I was able to quit my job and stay home with the kids. Sold a house for a 6 figure profit, dumped it into the new house with a 2.99% interest rate, virtually no debt other than the 2019 BMW I lease, put money into college funds every month, and give more to charity.

All that being said I would go right back to where we were 4 years ago if it meant no Trump. The long term damage isn't worth my own personal gains.

[PilotMan]

Gonna throw this here, because it IS political.

Nate Silver on Twitter: "I would bet $538 that the White House's "cubic model" is literally just an MS-EXCEL trendline with a third-degree (cubic) polynomial.… https://t.co/Ks1EkV4BNX"


Ben Casselman on Twitter: "So @jimtankersley talked to Kevin Hassett about the whole "cubic model" mess, and long story short, I'm pretty sure Hassett owes @NateSilver538 $538.
https://t.co/wRDLk6KgyG https://t.co/cP6zsdVEuU… https://t.co/mrC1FxqokH"

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Wait. Isn’t 30/50 absolutely TERRIBLE??? Apart from a pandemic, when that question is asked, “Yeah, I’m doing better” should be the default. When Reagan threw it out there in ‘80 and again in ‘84, it was “brilliant,” but when deconstructed, it was shown that in most times, it’s a yes for most people. My wife and I have the same jobs we had four years ago, but we have 48 more months worth of equity, 48 more months of paying down debt and increasing savings, just...48 more months of income. We haven’t gotten any huge raises or made any financial moves that “paid off” or that we should pat ourselves on the back over; we’ve just not had any terrible stuff happen.

Trump has help up raises for me, has toyed with the idea of trying to break up our union, held my paycheck up for ransom to congress over the budget, and made my life a hell of a lot more difficult by freezing hiring as we transitioned to MHS Genesis and upgraded to Windows 10.

Despite that, we're better off. Not because anything Trump has done, but instead because I got a promotion when the person directly above me retired and my wife transitioned out of the Army and into the private sector.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

Gonna throw this here, because it IS political.

Nate Silver on Twitter: "I would bet $538 that the White House's "cubic model" is literally just an MS-EXCEL trendline with a third-degree (cubic) polynomial.… https://t.co/Ks1EkV4BNX"


Ben Casselman on Twitter: "So @jimtankersley talked to Kevin Hassett about the whole "cubic model" mess, and long story short, I'm pretty sure Hassett owes @NateSilver538 $538.
https://t.co/wRDLk6KgyG https://t.co/cP6zsdVEuU… https://t.co/mrC1FxqokH"

And based on any cubic model deaths will eventually become negative. So get ready for the zombie apocalypse. The very best zombie apocalypse.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Trump has help up raises for me, has toyed with the idea of trying to break up our union, held my paycheck up for ransom to congress over the budget, and made my life a hell of a lot more difficult by freezing hiring as we transitioned to MHS Genesis and upgraded to Windows 10.

Despite that, we're better off. Not because anything Trump has done, but instead because I got a promotion when the person directly above me retired and my wife transitioned out of the Army and into the private sector.

Right, and I’m not saying our “doing better” has anything to do with anything Trump or Obama did or didn’t do. “Doing better as time passes” is the natural state of things for most folks under 55ish when things are just...normal.