COVID-19 - Wuhan Coronavirus (a non-political thread, see pg. 36 #1778)

[Brian Swartz]

Will it really do that though? Without enough PPE to go around, how do you safely administer such a test at the volume required?

[molson]

Originally Posted by AlexB

Will really expand our knowledge of the number and severity of cases: if lots of people have had it and didn’t realise, that’s good news...

Definitely. And it's hard to imagine that it was here in January at the latest, and didn't spread widely before we finally noticed a few weeks ago.

Though it's also been a bad regular flu season (23k dead in the U.S. thus far), which has probably complicated things. Maybe some of those deaths were COVID, I don't know how often flu is tested for in normal times, or if doctors just rely on symptoms.

[Ben E Lou]

{Can't believe I left off: "they're rapists."}

[Arles]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Will it really do that though? Without enough PPE to go around, how do you safely administer such a test at the volume required?

Just test all the health personnel and let the ones who've had it do the tests

In all seriousness, I would guess some of these could be self-administered.

[CrimsonFox]

Welp I don't have the flu. I went in because of fever and sore and swollen glands. Basically have throat infection and red swollen infected tonsils

Was neat how they have stations set up. I was shooed out of the main waiting room and told to go into a side door straight into the office where they had a hallway of 4 chairs spread out 6 feet apart each. I sat there until they came and asked questions. THen took me in a room and did all the stuff. They DID test me for flu but sticking the long swab up my nose on both sides (yeeeeeeeeesh)

Didn't have flu., Just inflamed infected tonsils and throat

I did ask if they were even able to test for coronavirus and she said no.

So how are there all these articles of people getting tested?

Oh yeah she said that the WHO offered a bunch of testing supplies back in January and trump turned them down

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

{Can't believe I left off: "they're rapists."}

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by panerd

Wondering out loud as a hypochondriac myself... I wonder what the hospitalization numbers would look like if this were an unknown disease. For example 3 months ago I get a bad cold and what I think is bronchitis and unknowingly lug it out at home vs now if I get diagnosed with COVID19. Negliable number or significant?

We are hoping we had it also. a couple weeks ago took the kids and a friends kid to the movies. A few days later friends kid gets sent home with 103 fever. Around the same time we all felt very lethargic and I had a nagging headache for about 10 days, which never happens. Really hoping we had it and it just didn't hit us hard, however unlikely.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by AlexB

I know we’re working on an antibodies test that apparently only takes 10 minutes for a result, which will do exactly that.

Will really expand our knowledge of the number and severity of cases: if lots of people have had it and didn’t realise, that’s good news...

my flu test took 10 minutes as well

[ISiddiqui]

Btw, the way you administer the Covid 19 test is basically the same as the flu test - a big long swab that goes in your nose and down your throat.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

So how are there all these articles of people getting tested?

Seems like they are only testing the worst cases. Or if you have a lot of money you can get them too.

[Flasch186]

Originally Posted by Arles

I still wonder if some people had COVID-19 back in February. I know a few people close to us (including my wife) had pretty brutal cases of the flu that took them out of commission for 4-5 days in late Feb. It would be nice if we could eventually come up with a way to see if we had it or currently carry it.

On our Disney cruise EO Feb my 6 yr old got sick, my dad got sick and my mom got sick the day we got off the cruise. No idea what they had but they had fevers and a mild cough each.

[RainMaker]

I think if people had it in February, we would have seen a surge in hospital much sooner.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I think if people had it in February, we would have seen a surge in hospital much sooner.

I agree with this.

I really want to buy the whole "We've all had it for months, but we just thought it was flu/generic winter virus" thing. That would be so great. But it just does not accord with the increase in hospitalizations happening now and not then.

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I think if people had it in February, we would have seen a surge in hospital much sooner.

Yeah this, plus how our fatality/hospitalization numbers are following other countries models pretty closely. As little faith as I have in our health care system I find it hard to believe we have been missing double digit deaths per day. Seems like a lot of wishful thinking going around here.

[AlexB]

BBC saying Rand Paul went to the government gym, had a bunch of meetings, etc while waiting for his test results.

If that’s true...

[SirFozzie]

for a week.

[molson]

Influential hospitalaztion rates were up this flu season, well over double some years.

Weekly U.S. Influenza Surveillance Report | CDC

Plus in a vacuum, 100 deaths a day in the U.S. wouldn't be particularly noticeable except maybe in local areas that were hit hard. If we believe the reported numbers are it - this has a LONG way to go to be as close to as bad as a bad flu season (which had 61,000 dead in 2017-2018, for example v. 400 so far with Covid.). But the medical community seems to be on the same page that one of the devastating things about this particular virus is it's ability to spread from people with no or little symptoms unchecked.

And people did test positive for it January and February, though testing was very limited. It would be an amazing coincidence if the curve of the infection rate exactly followed the U.S's ability to test, which I thought we all agreed the country was way behind on. But if that was really it, then we need to do whatever we were doing in February to keep the count so low for 6 weeks following the arrival of the virus to the U.S.

[whomario]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I think if people had it in February, we would have seen a surge in hospital much sooner.

Not necessarily. Needs 'critical mass' to really spread or happen to a bunch of people who are especially prone to close contact with lots of people. Plus it needs to spread in the older population specifically to be noticeable as those are displaying severs symptoms more regularly.

Anybody thinking they had it based on symptoms should really hold their horses, there is way too much overlap. They differ in profile if you look at % of patients having Symptom A, B or C., but still lots of overlap and different patients display different symptoms.

The one thing that is close to unique is shortness of breath (while resting), once you notice that you should get help ASAP.

@lathum : Headaches (and muscle aching etc) were actually much rarer so far in Corona Cases than the flu, same for fatigue. Maybe you usually have more a common cold rather than Influenza, which is why it was unusual to you.

[CU Tiger]

The CDC data is at least encouraging. Seems to start downward trend on 3/11, which was before a lot of the more critical forced closing happened. If this trend will continue, and people will follow distancing we may avoid worst case scenarios.

Cases in U.S. | CDC

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by CU Tiger

The CDC data is at least encouraging. Seems to start downward trend on 3/11, which was before a lot of the more critical forced closing happened. If this trend will continue, and people will follow distancing we may avoid worst case scenarios.

Cases in U.S. | CDC

I don't think that graph has any worth. The footnote says this:

** Does not include cases among persons repatriated to the United States from Wuhan, China and Japan; does not include U.S.-identified cases where the date of illness onset has not yet been reported.

If you just take the number of cases and divide by the days they show case onset it should average almost 650, but their highest number is 331.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by AlexB

BBC saying Rand Paul went to the government gym, had a bunch of meetings, etc while waiting for his test results.

If that’s true...

Every time Rand does something it makes me a little more sympathetic for his neighbor.

[whomario]

Originally Posted by molson

Influential hospitalaztion rates were up this flu season, well over double some years.

Weekly U.S. Influenza Surveillance Report | CDC

Plus in a vacuum, 100 deaths a day in the U.S. wouldn't be particularly noticeable except maybe in local areas that were hit hard. If we believe the reported numbers are it - this has a LONG way to go to be as close to as bad as a bad flu season (which had 61,000 dead in 2017-2018, for example). But the medical community seems to be on the same page that one of the devastating things about this particular virus is it's ability to spread from people with no or little symptoms unchecked.

And people did test positive for it January and February, though testing was very limited. It would be an amazing coincidence if the curve of the infection rate exactly followed the U.S's ability to test, which I thought we all agreed the country was way behind on. But if that was really it, then we need to do whatever we were doing in February to keep the count so low for 6 weeks following the arrival of the virus to the U.S.

Which is btw half the number of deaths per capita than the Lombardy region has had already in about 3 weeks. 2/3 of those in the past week. Whereas a flu season is like 5 months with a 'peak' of 2 - 2.5 depending on circumstances.

US has 33 times as many inhabitants, 3500 deaths for lombardy x 33 = 115k

And without massive interference this would likely not have even been the 'peak' but merely the 'low season' to start things off. And they went from 50 deats to 250 to 600+ very suddenly.

[NobodyHere]

Well it looks like my business is exempt from the shutdown so far.

I was kind of looking forward to a two week vacation.

[molson]

Also interesting that the first reported U.S. case came 11 days before the first Italy case, and 1 day before the first South Korea case. If we weren't substantially impacted until March, than we inadvertently contained it amazingly well for a time. And maybe there are inherent advantages in the U.S. that slows the spread (more rural, fewer smokers, etc.)

[CU Tiger]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

If you just take the number of cases and divide by the days they show case onset it should average almost 650, but their highest number is 331.

I don't think thats how the math on this works.
The total number of all of the data here - the area under the curve - will total up to all of the cases in the country to date (minus the ones mentioned) - 4,038.
Why would it average 650? it would be 4038 / number of day data point, about 70. Which is around 58.

[AlexB]

We’re on near lockdown - we should only leave home for essential work reasons (not entirely sure what that means, but I’m guessing visiting cricket clubs to assess sites for plastic pitches doesn’t qualify!), food/medicine shopping, caring for vulnerable people, and solo exercise only

[whomario]

Originally Posted by molson

Also interesting that the first reported U.S. case came 11 days before the first Italy case, and 1 day before the first South Korea case. If we weren't substantially impacted until March, than we inadvertently contained it amazingly well for a time. And maybe there are inherent advantages in the U.S. that slows the spread (more rural, fewer smokers, etc.)

Italy is thought to have had it much earlier as well (based on lab analysis etc)

It seems that with a virus like that needs critical mass before being noticeable and then a while before tested cases go up (because you have more to go on to find them or simply because more and more show up). Which is likely why Lombardy is so hard hit, because it had the most early cases and then managed to spread there wildly before the measures got in place. Whereas the rest of italy had the protective measures in place just in time before there were too many infected.
The scary thing about Italy is they had only 7000 cases march 8th and a week later they started having 400 dead a day and going up from there.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by CU Tiger

I don't think thats how the math on this works.
The total number of all of the data here - the area under the curve - will total up to all of the cases in the country to date (minus the ones mentioned) - 4,038.
Why would it average 650? it would be 4038 / number of day data point, about 70. Which is around 58.

I'm looking at the total number of US cases. That chart is missing so many cases that I don't trust that there's really a downslope to new cases over the past few days.

[Ironhead]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I'm looking at the total number of US cases. That chart is missing so many cases that I don't trust that there's really a downslope to new cases over the past few days.

I guess the thing that would immediately make me not trust it is that the incubation period is said to be up to 14 days before symptoms are seen but they are only using a 1 week lag in "Illnesses that began during this time may not yet be reported" period. Seems like it should be longer.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by Ironhead

I guess the thing that would immediately make me not trust it is that the incubation period is said to be up to 14 days before symptoms are seen but they are only using a 1 week lag in "Illnesses that began during this time may not yet be reported" period. Seems like it should be longer.

The 14 days is a "possible" range, but most seem to be from 4-6 days. At which point the 1 week lag probably hits a vast majority of cases.

[rjolley]

Originally Posted by Arles

I still wonder if some people had COVID-19 back in February. I know a few people close to us (including my wife) had pretty brutal cases of the flu that took them out of commission for 4-5 days in late Feb. It would be nice if we could eventually come up with a way to see if we had it or currently carry it.

That's my wife's and my theory, and think it goes back before February.

I was down with something a few months ago. Sickest I've been in a long time. Felt like the flu. I didn't get tested or see a doctor, but I was considering urgent care at one point.

Also, the same thing went through my office. People out 3-10 days with a bug that everyone assumed was a bad strain of the flu. Heard other people were out with some bug that tests came back negative for the flu. Was that COVID-19? Who knows....

[SirFozzie]

UK joins germany in pretty much forbidding all gatherings and shutting down all non-essential industries:

Coronavirus: Strict new curbs on life in UK announced by PM - BBC News

[grdawg]

And Kemp continues to do nothing for Georgia. Shelter in place for "medically fragile". Its not like those people probably haven't already been doing that. Its going to be up to individual cities to do the it on their own. I'm sure Atlanta will be doing a shelter in place, but it needs to be all of Georgia.

[MIJB#19]

Originally Posted by AlexB

We’re on near lockdown - we should only leave home for work, food/medicine shopping, caring for vulnerable people, and solo exercise only

Over the weekend people largely ignored the social distancing, which lead to stricter distancing restrictions, close to what you described, except that it's considered okay to walk outside with people from the same household, or with 1 other person. 3 or more will be considered a group and prohibited. Additionally, the large gatherings restrictions have been extended until June 1st. We'll have to see what changes will be made on April 6th about the grey area between small groups and large groups. It's a pity, but so be it.

Sample size and all, I fully expect the numbers (positive test, deaths, hospitalizations) to rise for at least another 2 weeks, purely based on the 14 days + 14 days math I've been using. I'm not buying the "results will be visible after 1 1/2 weeks of semi-lockdown" talk.

[whomario]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

UK joins germany in pretty much forbidding all gatherings and shutting down all non-essential industries:

Coronavirus: Strict new curbs on life in UK announced by PM - BBC News

France now has people not going to work or a doctor timestamp a seperate permission slip and are then only allowed to leave the house once a day for an hour and within 1 Kilometer of their home.

What seems questionable is they did it based on high numbers today but those are partly leftover from the weekend (and tests take 1-2 days to process anyway) and since the original lockdown was put in place on the 17th it seems safe to assume a decent portion of those new cases got infected before the initial lockdown.

[AlexB]

Originally Posted by MIJB#19

Over the weekend people largely ignored the social distancing, which lead to stricter distancing restrictions, close to what you described, except that it's considered okay to walk outside with people from the same household, or with 1 other person. 3 or more will be considered a group and prohibited. Additionally, the large gatherings restrictions have been extended until June 1st. We'll have to see what changes will be made on April 6th about the grey area between small groups and large groups. It's a pity, but so be it.

Sample size and all, I fully expect the numbers (positive test, deaths, hospitalizations) to rise for at least another 2 weeks, purely based on the 14 days + 14 days math I've been using. I'm not buying the "results will be visible after 1 1/2 weeks of semi-lockdown" talk.

Tis true

[Flasch186]

Welp, it's fait accompli. He's going to release the hounds come April 1 and then 30 days later at most we'll have an overwhelming wave of death and destruction throughout the country. I hope I'm wrong but it isn't going to be manageable by the hospitals and doctors and nurses.

[whomario]

Why the rise in Infections goes up so fast: and why it can get out of hand if unchecked in an easily digestible 2 minute explanation:


Randi Mayem Singer on Twitter: "Don't spread the virus. Spread this video.
https://t.co/WYQcC2RiaN"


And in Spain soldiers today found multiple dead in a retirement home when disenfecting it. The same home has had 75 cases. Since the discussion came to prisons: This is the real threat as far as deaths goes.

[Mota]

Originally Posted by Fidatelo

I agree with most everything here, especially with respect to the NHL shutdown being the eye-opener for the majority of Canadians. However I feel like Ontario (Toronto) and BC (Vancouver) are in a bit rougher shape than this lets on. They are large, international hubs and got hit earlier than the rest of the country and it's showing.



I do think that our nationwide response since the NHL shutdown has been pretty solid. Our province (Manitoba) feels like it's a bit slow to react comparatively, but so far it hasn't had a hugely obvious negative impact so perhaps the response has been adequate enough.


I think the next major domino to fall will be closing of provincial borders, which will be annoying if this extends into May and beyond because my cottage is on the other side of the Manitoba/Ontario border and that would otherwise be a great place to go socially distance.

I live just north of Toronto and an ambulance just took someone away 3 houses away from me. They put on the masks and plastic wraps before going in there, so it could have been COVID-19 related.

Scary as heck.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

for a week.

Why does it take a week to get a result? Especially for a sitting US Senator. In China and South Korea they get these results back in a couple hours (and have for months).

[Scoobz0202]

The tone of this conference is really sad and, yea, Fauci isn't there to contradict.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Scoobz0202

The tone of this conference is really sad and, yea, Fauci isn't there to contradict.

I can't watch them anymore

[Flasch186]

Originally Posted by Scoobz0202

The tone of this conference is really sad and, yea, Fauci isn't there to contradict.

Had to get rid of the truther

[Brian Swartz]

I'm really curious, and more afraid now, of what happens next with the big shutdown orders having come from states, not from the federal government. That disconnect could be fatal - I don't believe words until they are backed up with action, but the signaling here is starting to push the panic buttons in my mind.

[Edward64]

Yeah, when I don't see Fauci there I change the channel. BS or half-truths without Fauci.

[Lathum]

#BREAKING Arizona man dies after self-medicating trying to prevent COVID-19. He and a woman ingested chloroquine phosphate, a chemical used to clean fish tanks. The woman is in critical condition. #12News https://t.co/y29rGmhjJY

— Bianca Buono (@BiancaBuono) March 23, 2020

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

I'm really curious, and more afraid now, of what happens next with the big shutdown orders having come from states, not from the federal government. That disconnect could be fatal - I don't believe words until they are backed up with action, but the signaling here is starting to push the panic buttons in my mind.

You think states will enact more than close all businesses except essentials, pseduo stay-at-home/PAUSE (but you can still go out and exercise just as long as you stay 6ft away)?

The next step is no going outdoor unless its for groceries, medicine?

[RainMaker]

More insider trading!

New: House members and aides were also trading stock in the early days of coronavirus.

Rep. Susan Davis sold stock in Alaska Air and Royal Caribbean in mid-Feburary.

Aides invested in a leading vaccine manufacturer, Clorox, and more: https://t.co/iaeAQDPZyW w/@KatyODonnell_

— Maggie Severns (@MaggieSeverns) March 21, 2020

[Edward64]

A little good news for Italy. Hope the trend continues.

New coronavirus cases drop in Italy for second day | TheHill

Italy recorded a lower day-to-day increase of coronavirus cases for the second day in a row Monday, officials said.

Italy’s Civil Protection agency documented 4,789 new cases Monday, 700 less than the 5,560 new cases reported Sunday, The Associated Press reported. But officials cautioned that it’s too early to know if the worst is behind the country that has experienced the most deaths due to the virus.

The day-to-day death count also fell to just over 600 deaths Monday compared to 651 on Sunday.

The coronavirus has hit Italy hard, overwhelming its health care system and killing 6,077 people. The country has 63,927 confirmed cases, compared to China’s 81,496.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by Edward64

You think states will enact more than close all businesses except essentials, pseduo stay-at-home/PAUSE (but you can still go out and exercise just as long as you stay 6ft away)?

I think there's not much more they can do other than try to enforce the existing orders stronger than 'please do this'. I also think the mixed messages on this, the people starting to say just open everything and let the chips fall where they may is really dangerous, because by the time it is obvious to them it was the wrong move, it'll be way too late.

It's more the lack of national unity (and I'm not just saying politically here, but at every level) that is really a huge threat to our response. The fact that after four days we can't get together on the stimulus package is emblematic. Whose fault it is/who is wrong is kind of besides the point here. As this goes forward and the pain regardless of what we do or don't do increases, continuing to fraction, blame the wrong thing, etc. seems likely to continue.