07-30-2008, 08:59 AM | #2251 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Conyers GA
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Quote:
I'm not being antagonistic, just vehement. I just feel strongly that mcc and chubby are the last two wolves and don't want to F anything up. I'm willing to go through some possible scenarios with you though. |
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07-30-2008, 08:59 AM | #2252 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Big Ten Country
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Quote:
Again, you're assuming the wolves knew that henry was going to be out of the game. If henry was still there, like the wolves could have thought due to late results, then as far as they knew, killing me would not have won them the game. |
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07-30-2008, 08:59 AM | #2253 | |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Fresno, CA
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Quote:
Because I completely disagree. I think it's a needless risk. If it's not possible for Tyrith to be paired with Collins (since they could've won the game last night) then it'd almost have to be Tyrith and Chubby (which I doubt in general) or Collins and Chubby. We know Chubby likely isn't the Brutal, he's likely the cunning. So let's just vote him out. No way for Collins to win on his own. |
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07-30-2008, 08:59 AM | #2254 |
Coordinator
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07-30-2008, 09:00 AM | #2255 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Conyers GA
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But 3-2-2 screws us because we don't know the tie-breaker. At the very least it could result in no-lynch which gives them an extra night-kill.
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07-30-2008, 09:01 AM | #2256 | |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Fresno, CA
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No, I'm not. Chubby was the one that gained Henry's district, not Collins. What I"m saying is, going into last night it was Pass-2, Tyrith-4, Henry-1, Chubby-2, Collins-3. Henry or no Henry, if Collins is the wolf, you'd be dead. Period. End of Story. So, therefore, for Tyrith to be a wolf, he *must* be paired with Chubby (or some f'ed up scenrio where you/illini/Kwhit are a wolf). |
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07-30-2008, 09:01 AM | #2257 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
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Quote:
I agree that collins and Chubby is the most likely scenario as well, but part of me thinks they wouldn't have been THAT open yesterday -- I figure one of the two wolves would play along with the gang. |
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07-30-2008, 09:01 AM | #2258 |
College Starter
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Houston, TX
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Heinz really should be the president. Then there'd be no way we could lose this game. For now, as long as heinz stays in the game we cannot lose the game excluding crazy scenarios where either Pass or I is a wolf.
Do we think it's possible that the cunning and the brutal are the same person? |
07-30-2008, 09:01 AM | #2259 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Conyers GA
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Quote:
I don't think that's true. Let's walk through some scenarios here. |
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07-30-2008, 09:02 AM | #2260 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Big Ten Country
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Quote:
Sorry, I think it was that your earlier post confused me. Let me reply to it again. |
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07-30-2008, 09:03 AM | #2261 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Big Ten Country
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Quote:
That's a really good question. But watch out -- you guys don't want me considering MORE possibilities! |
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07-30-2008, 09:03 AM | #2262 | |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Fresno, CA
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Quote:
Presuming we're right about a Chubby lynch and Collins is the final brutal wolf we'd have Pass as a villager with 2. Tyrith a villager with 4. I'm a villager with 3. That's the Repub side. Then let's say I get one of CHubby's and Collins gets 2. So he'd have 6. Even if he killed me, one has to figure 2 each would go to him and Tyrith (so he'd have 8). If he night-killed you, he'd have 8. Plus we have a doc block chance too. |
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07-30-2008, 09:03 AM | #2263 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Conyers GA
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If we lynch Chubby, it really all comes down to where his districts go. I could easily see 2 go to mccollins (possibly all 3 since he's a dem).
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07-30-2008, 09:03 AM | #2264 |
College Starter
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Houston, TX
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Alright, I agree with heinz and KWhit - we should just kill Chubby and be done with it. We really need to kill the brutal last - if either KWhit or heinz lives through tonight along with me and Pass we're going to win in the mccollins/Chubby scenario.
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07-30-2008, 09:05 AM | #2265 | |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Fresno, CA
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Quote:
And lo and behold, who do we have to blame for my being unable to be nominated for President...Chubby. I mean really people, I hate to sound like I'm being vindictive here after all Chubby and I went back-and-forth yesterday, but really? Do we just chalk all this up to a big mis-understanding / coincidence? C'mon now... |
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07-30-2008, 09:05 AM | #2266 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
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Quote:
I agree with the first two paragraphs -- like I said before, if it were Tyrith-mccollins, killing me would have won the game for them. And I was not likely to be protected, so I think we can rule that out. I don't get how if it was Chubby and collins, killing me would have won the game for them. I'm guessing you meant Tyrith and collins? |
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07-30-2008, 09:05 AM | #2267 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Conyers GA
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Yeah, if we lynch Chubby, best case for mccollins by himself is probably getting 8 districts. We'd be ok.
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07-30-2008, 09:06 AM | #2268 | |
Pro Rookie
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Quote:
I dunno, I don't think it'd just go to him as a Dem. Otherwise, why have minor/major win conditions if it's near-impossible for the other side to get a middle-ground district? |
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07-30-2008, 09:07 AM | #2269 |
College Starter
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Houston, TX
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Alright, Pass, this is my stance on all this. CR, as the Supreme Court, has forced us into a fairly normal game of WW. I'm willing to largely suppose that he's following normal WW conventions otherwise. My guess is that the wolves, even if they had a choice would make the brutal and cunning different people to minimize their variance.
To me the only scenario that really scares me is that KWhit is a wolf and made a totally dastardly several days ago, but that just seems way, way too nuts. Occam's Razor points towards the Chubby/mccollins cunning/brutal scenario. I'm willing to consider alternative actions to voting out Chubby that keep in mind this is the most likely scenario and don't materially injure our chances to win the game in it. |
07-30-2008, 09:07 AM | #2270 | |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Fresno, CA
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Quote:
Yeah, typo there. If it's Chubby and Collins then they made the best play last night, getting a player out who wasn't going to be protected and whose district was likely headed to the wolf side. |
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07-30-2008, 09:09 AM | #2271 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Big Ten Country
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Quote:
So you're saying you DON'T want us to vote for you? |
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07-30-2008, 09:11 AM | #2272 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Big Ten Country
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Quote:
No. I'm not saying I trust Chubby. I don't think his vote was intended to make sure you couldn't be President, but I'm not saying it was a misunderstanding. Like I said, I'm trying to keep our bases covered here. |
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07-30-2008, 09:11 AM | #2273 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Conyers GA
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Quote:
You can rule out any thoughts of me being a wolf. I was a big reason MrsS was lynched, and I was attacked and guarded by the BG (which was written up by CR). I don't even want to think how I could have faked the second one of those two things. |
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07-30-2008, 09:11 AM | #2274 |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Fresno, CA
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Here's how I see things
Voting out Pass - Just doesn't seem like a wolf. It's hard to conjure up a scenario where even if he was a wolf, he could win the game (unless it was like 4 Repub wolves with Tyrith or something equally insane) Voting Out Tyrith - I see the general point in it, but I disagree with it. I think it's skirting the real issue, and it enters in risk where there needn't be any more than there alread yis Voting illini - Makes little sense. If he's a wolf, we're a-ok. Voting me - Terrible idea. Voting Chubby - excellent idea. Hard to construct a wolf end-game scenario that is both plausible and doesn't contain him as a wolf. If he's a wolf, he's the Cunning wolf. I'm of the ilk that the Cunning and Brutal aren't the same wolf, so that's a plus Voting Collins - good idea, but not ideal IMO, mainly because if he's a wolf, which is likely, he's the brutal and Chubby can get a swarm of districts from deadline today before daybreak begins, possibly taking the game. If a wolf, it only makes sense (well, from us potentially losing the game here) if he's partnered with Chubby Voting KWhit - Bad idea. If he's a wolf he made one son of a bitch play back on Night 3. I'll pay him off if that's case. |
07-30-2008, 09:11 AM | #2275 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Syracuse, NY
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jeebus, what do i have to do to prove i'm not a wolf???
Censure mccollins I'm sure there's at least one Dem wolf and I KNOW i'm not a wolf and I'm pretty sure KWhit isn't a wolf. I said all day yesterday there was a 3-1 wolf split and while I was wrong on heinz, it looks like i was right on the split. |
07-30-2008, 09:11 AM | #2276 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Big Ten Country
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Word from CR: The brutal and cunning wolf can NOT be the same person.
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07-30-2008, 09:12 AM | #2277 |
College Starter
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Houston, TX
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If we could orchestrate a scenario where we could for sure get it so that we could do it without chance of wolves screwing us up, I'd be for it. However, 2/3 of 7 people is going to take 5 votes, and those will need to involve wolves who could then screw with our lynch. It's too risky, IMO.
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07-30-2008, 09:12 AM | #2278 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
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Quote:
Any thoughts on who the 3rd republican wolf is? |
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07-30-2008, 09:14 AM | #2279 |
College Starter
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Houston, TX
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The only crazy scenario is where illini is the other wolf. In which case, if Chubby and heinz or KWhit both die I think we're still okay, and I expect heinz to be guarded tonight under almost any scenario.
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07-30-2008, 09:14 AM | #2280 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Conyers GA
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So we'll be able to vote two people out before we have another election, right? One today, one tomorrow, with election results posted tomorrow night? If that's right, then we won't have the election stuff to worry about taking some of us out of the game.
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07-30-2008, 09:14 AM | #2281 | |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Feb 2006
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Quote:
Lame. So yeah, who is this mysterious 3rd wolf? Or do you still think it's me? |
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07-30-2008, 09:15 AM | #2282 | |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Syracuse, NY
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Quote:
I was the decding vote on lynching Mrs S, made at one min before the 10 mind penalty deadline. I guess that was a wolfy move? I'm not a friggin wolf! |
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07-30-2008, 09:16 AM | #2283 |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Fresno, CA
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I'm pretty sure Chubby could say he's Santa Claus at this point and I'd still likely vote for him.
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07-30-2008, 09:16 AM | #2284 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Big Ten Country
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Quote:
If illini is a wolf, we're golden, since he can't pick up any districts until re-election tomorrow evening. |
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07-30-2008, 09:16 AM | #2285 |
College Prospect
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Nicholasville, KY
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Come on - voting for me to be a wolf with no proof?
I want some Miranda rights. |
07-30-2008, 09:16 AM | #2286 | |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Syracuse, NY
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Quote:
How the fuck do I know. I clearly don't have as a good of a read on the game as I thought. You scanned me, I'm good. I'm sure if you had scanned mccollins he'd have come up as a wolf. So you're going after the good scan because you refuse to think it's a 3-1 split? |
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07-30-2008, 09:16 AM | #2287 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Conyers GA
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Hey - who's the witness? We should be able to get some info from them to help.
I think now's a good time to reveal that. |
07-30-2008, 09:16 AM | #2288 |
College Starter
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Houston, TX
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If we lynch Chubby today and mccollins tomorrow there's no way we lose this game if Pass, heinz, KWhit, and myself are all good like we expect.
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07-30-2008, 09:17 AM | #2289 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Big Ten Country
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Quote:
Right. Yeah, the game will most likely be over before the next election. |
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07-30-2008, 09:18 AM | #2290 |
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07-30-2008, 09:18 AM | #2291 |
Coordinator
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07-30-2008, 09:18 AM | #2292 |
Coordinator
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Location: Conyers GA
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I'd be interested to hear whatever Cubby and Mcc want to say in their defense.
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07-30-2008, 09:18 AM | #2293 |
Coordinator
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07-30-2008, 09:19 AM | #2294 | |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Syracuse, NY
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Quote:
Way to use your scanning ability then. Scan me, come up clear and still vote for me... Seriously, look at my actions all game if you want to ignore my scan. I misread the game yesterday but there's no way I put the deciding vote on Mrs S as a wolf and I don't take the hit to myself and the party by vetoing a wolf ridered bill when i was speaker... |
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07-30-2008, 09:19 AM | #2295 | |
Pro Rookie
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No, I'm going for the good scan because I wanted to know which of you two was the brutal |
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07-30-2008, 09:20 AM | #2296 |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Fresno, CA
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Ok Chubby, I'll ask one question. Your answer will determine my vote
Are you the Doctor? |
07-30-2008, 09:20 AM | #2297 |
College Starter
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Houston, TX
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Just look at the record throughout the game. How likely do you think it really is that I'm a wolf?
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07-30-2008, 09:20 AM | #2298 |
College Starter
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Houston, TX
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I'm not the witness, btw.
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07-30-2008, 09:21 AM | #2299 |
College Prospect
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Nicholasville, KY
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07-30-2008, 09:22 AM | #2300 |
Coordinator
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