2020 Democratic Primaries/General Election Thread

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Arles

The longer all of Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Biden, Bloomberg and Steyer stay in the race, the more states Bernie will cleanup on with his 25-30% base vote. This is going to be Trump 2.0 where all the moderates cancel each other out, while a more polarizing candidate with a strong 25-30% keeps bagging delegates.

Worked out for the Republicans pretty well.

[Arles]

Let me rephrase, if someone is voting for Pete or Amy - chances are they are not going for name recognition. They gravitate to them for some reason and my guess is their next choice would be Biden over someone like Bernie. I think Biden has a lot of support related to his perceived chance to beat Trump whereas Bernie's support seems more about him. I just don't see Bernie being a "2nd choice" for many in this big field right now. I'm sure he is for some - but not many.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Edward64

In the United Socialist States of America.

I do love this. So lowering the age of Medicare is the trigger for socialism now? Not the billions in handouts to farmers to nationalize their industry. Or the billions in handouts and subsidies for the energy companies. The near trillion to the banks. Billions to the automakers. That's good ole American capitalism.

Lowering the Medicare age from 65 though means we're Venezuela.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Arles

Let me rephrase, if someone is voting for Pete or Amy - chances are they are not going for name recognition. They gravitate to them for some reason and my guess is their next choice would be Biden over someone like Bernie. I think Biden has a lot of support related to his perceived chance to beat Trump whereas Bernie's support seems more about him. I just don't see Bernie being a "2nd choice" for many in this big field right now. I'm sure he is for some - but not many.

Amy is a loser no one cares about. Pete goes to Bloomberg which isn't a huge surprise (although Bernie is the 2nd choice). Bernie is the 2nd choice for Biden and Warren supporters. And by a wide margin on both.

The anti-Sanders coalition isn't that big. Just seems like it because the wealthy people in the party have the louder voice (see MSNBC).

Morning Consult: The 2020 U.S. Election

[ISiddiqui]

The funny part is 2nd on the 2nd choice of SANDERS supporters is Biden. And then 3rd is Bloomberg.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

The funny part is 2nd on the 2nd choice of SANDERS supporters is Biden. And then 3rd is Bloomberg.

It really is name recognition for a large segment of voters. They may have one or two issues they care about, but many don't even know the views of the people they support. They "think" they will do whatever they care about. Most people on this board are at least somewhat politically literate, but that is not the majority of the electorate.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by panerd

Being a fan of Ron Paul (and not as much a fan of Rand but at least I like hearing his ideas) I don't like to be against bigger debates or excluding based just on polls. But with that said really no reason at all to hear from Tom Stayer and probably not Amy Klobuchar either though some will probably disagree with that. Eventually it will be down to 2 or 3 and then should be more organized and less hand raising where they sadly look like 3rd graders trying to get the teachers attention.

I think Steyer is in it because he polls high in the state. The debate is technically for the South Carolina primary, so it makes some sense.

[RainMaker]

As for the debate last night, I thought Bloomberg was at his best when he trashed Trump on the CDC stuff. His best hope is to come across as the competent businessman who won't make bad decisions like that. Stay away from ideology battles with the other candidates and just focus on how he will run the government competently. I do think there is a large contingent of voters who just want to remove the chaos.

Still don't understand Mayor Pete. When he talks, it sounds like me trying to give a book report in school about a book I didn't really read. Like I hit a few talking points but it is clear I don't know jack shit about the topic.

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

The funny part is 2nd on the 2nd choice of SANDERS supporters is Biden. And then 3rd is Bloomberg.

I think a lot of Biden's support is just nostalgia for Obama. And his campaign has mostly centered around that.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by I. J. Reilly

I think it's all name recognition. It’s Biden and then the only other name the recognize is Bernie.

Bingo. We're talking about a lot of folks who just aren't paying close attention.

[Edward64]

Watching CNN townhall with Bloomberg. Enjoying it, this format is so much nicer to hear what some has to say vs the free for all. I do wish it was more of an aggressive moderator(s) asking the questions but each candidate has so much more time to tell his/her side of the story.

Joe up next.

Paraphrasing ... Bloomberg believes we should hand out greencards to foreigners who graduate from a US College, "especially the STEM graduates". Not exactly how I would put it but close enough to know he gets it ... there is a wealth of "intellectual assets" that we can leverage if only we reform our immigration system.

He's also good with some sort of path to citizenship for all illegals, he did not just spell out the Dreamers.

[Edward64]

Joe did well, he stumbled/mispoke in a couple areas but he connected with me.

Admittedly, he's like looking older everytime I see him (but makeup and lighting is everything). I don't think he is senile yet, in fact I hope I can speak and remember as well as him when I'm 77.

He does tend to ramble.

Amy is up next.

[Edward64]

Maybe I'm tired after Biden and Bloomberg, but not feeling the love for Amy. I think part of it is her monotonous (?) tone and/or stories she tells. It may very well be me though.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by Arles

Let me rephrase, if someone is voting for Pete or Amy - chances are they are not going for name recognition. They gravitate to them for some reason and my guess is their next choice would be Biden over someone like Bernie. I think Biden has a lot of support related to his perceived chance to beat Trump whereas Bernie's support seems more about him. I just don't see Bernie being a "2nd choice" for many in this big field right now. I'm sure he is for some - but not many.

This is me right now. To a tee.

[Edward64]

Warren is up next. I don't like her in the free-for-all but I am interested to see hear in a calm town hall.

EDIT: Nah, still the same annoying person

[Edward64]

Bloomberg-Yang rumors. Interesting combo, think I can live with it.

[Edward64]

Hypothetical matchup between Trump vs Sanders.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/27/polit...ral/index.html

[Galaril]

New Yahoo News/YouGov poll: Who is strongest against Trump? Must-win states and swing voters show Biden holds edge over Sanders

[GrantDawg]

Just a quick flush of the exit polls makes you think this will not be a good day for Sanders. Youth turn out is very low, and the people that say the endorsement of the state majority whip (who endorsed Biden) influenced their decision is at 47%.

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[Edward64]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Just a quick flush of the exit polls makes you think this will not be a good day for Sanders. Youth turn out is very low, and the people that say the endorsement of the state majority whip (who endorsed Biden) influenced their decision is at 47%.

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Yeah go Biden, kick some socialist-commie-lover ass. Thank you SC African Americans who clearly know what is at stake.

[GrantDawg]

538 is saying it is possible that Biden might end above 50% of the vote, and take the delegates lead. That is some kind of firewall.

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[bronconick]

Steyer drops out

[JPhillips]

He backed that ass up.

[GrantDawg]

100 million doesn't buy you as many votes as it used to.

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[Edward64]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

100 million doesn't buy you as many votes as it used to.

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Definitely not as much as Bloomberg's $500M.

[JPhillips]

Between 2019 and 2020 Steyer ran almost 71000 ads in SC.

Bloomberg, Biden and Buttigieg ran @7000 each.

[Warhammer]

The problem I had with the Steyer ads were my take aways from them, he's rich, he cares about the US, and that was about it.

EDIT: That is great and all, but why should I vote for you?

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

He backed that ass up.

This would be pretty much THE timely comment I believe

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Warhammer

The problem I had with the Steyer ads were my take aways from them, he's rich, he cares about the US, and that was about it.

EDIT: That is great and all, but why should I vote for you?

Yeah, I felt the same.

[Edward64]

I would almost, just almost vote for Sanders or Warren just to have 4 great years of Larry David or Kate McKinnon. The SNL monologue yesterday wasn't great but those 2 are the best.

[Ben E Lou]

Bernie Sanders Hit With Cease and Desist from Flavor Flav

"BERNIE SANDERS HIT WITH CEASE AND DESIST FROM FLAVOR FLAV" isn't the headline we want, but it's the headline we deserve, America.

[GrantDawg]

Bernie was able to hit viability in the state and congressional districts (though in one he was just a handful of votes from giving up 4 more delegates to Biden). Bernie does still hold a delegate lead 58-50 over Biden. Biden makes himself the primary contender to Sanders front-runner status. There is not much of chance to see how this will affect Super Tuesday before the actual day. How much of swing does this give Biden? How much does this along with poor debate performances affect Bloomberg? Does Bernie still win the most delegates Tuesday?

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Bernie was able to hit viability in the state and congressional districts (though in one he was just a handful of votes from giving up 4 more delegates to Biden). Bernie does still hold a delegate lead 58-50 over Biden. Biden makes himself the primary contender to Sanders front-runner status. There is not much of chance to see how this will affect Super Tuesday before the actual day. How much of swing does this give Biden? How much does this along with poor debate performances affect Bloomberg? Does Bernie still win the most delegates Tuesday?

Some, but not enough unless Klob, Bloom, and Buttig go bye-bye before then.


Enough.


Yes, including possibly all of CA, which will give him a massive lead going forward.

[ISiddiqui]

I think the level of Biden's win will have a big effect on Super Tuesday, especially among African-Americans in the South. All of the news is how much Biden dominated.

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[tarcone]

Would Sanders really pull Ohio?

[Ben E Lou]

New! BREAKING @PeteButtigieg to announce he is out of the presidential race, his staff now hearing the news in campaign call, sources tell us.

— Carla Marinucci (@cmarinucci) March 1, 2020

[JPhillips]

Amy should go, too.

It's really a two person race at this point, but Warren and Bloomberg won't leave until after Tuesday.

[ISiddiqui]

Holy shit. Didn't think Buttigieg would leave until after ST. Klobuchar should as well, but I don't blame her for staying until next Wednesday

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[bronconick]

Klobuchar is probably hoping for a home win that might look good the next time the Dem nomination is available

[Galaril]

The longer Warren stays the worse for Sanders since I think those votes will mostly go to him. Amy for sure go to Biden. Mayor Pete’s votes I guess go mostly to a moderate but whether Biden or Bloomberg who knows. Biden needs to survive ST and get a good number of delegates. That along with Bloomberg underperforming below the 15% threshold might mean he drops out after ST. I think that would likely propel Biden and Sanders to a collision course to the convention.

[Ben E Lou]

Can confirm Mayor Pete’s people have been talking to VP Biden’s people abt consolidating support. Candidates have exchanged voicemails bc they’re both traveling.

— Craig Melvin (@craigmelvin) March 2, 2020

[PilotMan]

My favorite R supporters have said that the DNC are paying off all the other candidates in an effort to pave the way for Biden and to screw Sanders again, and how unfair it is and how awful they all are.

[Jas_lov]

Originally Posted by bronconick

Klobuchar is probably hoping for a home win that might look good the next time the Dem nomination is available

Shouldn't they win their home states? Warren might lose hers. Klobuchar probably wins hers but if she barely beats Sanders what does that achieve. Pete has the right idea dropping out but he's the only one that really needs a cabinet job to get some national experience.

[Thomkal]

Sad for Mayor Pete, but even I, a gay man, could not vote for him in the SC Primary. Get some experience as a Senator/Rep and then I'll be more open to voting for him as President. Right now we just need someone who can undo most of what Trump has done and Mayor Pete just doesn't have that experience.

[GrantDawg]

I think we might now know who the first gay President is going to be. I saw a stat that says if Pete runs in 2060, he will still be younger than Bernie is now. He has plenty of time. Now, he needs to work really hard at endearing himself to POC. He needs to find something that will not come off as pandering, but would be very popular among the marginalized and often disenfranchised. Maybe work with Abrams in her voting projects?

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[tarcone]

So Biden vs. Trump. Jeez I wonder who wins?

Way to go Dems. Hope you keep your majority in the house.

[GrantDawg]

Meanwhile, Tulsi Gabbard is still running with exactly zero chance of getting a delegate.

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[JPhillips]

Pete's problem is that there's no advancement potential in Indiana. He won't be a rep or senator or governor. His only options are moving or landing a cabinet position.

Now if all he wants is to be rich, lots of doors have opened for him to walk through.

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Get some experience as a Senator/Rep

I don't know if that will do it or not. Heard an opinion the other day that maybe mayors are as much if not better positioned these days to be elected president than Senators because they have executive experience. The last two sitting senators to be elected - Obama and Kennedy - were each in the Senate for a hot minute.

Trump - business exec
Obama - 3 years in senate (but young)
Bush 43 - Gov.
Clinton - Gov.
Bush 41 - VP, CIA
Reagan - Gov.
Carter - Gov.
Nixon - Gov., VP
LBJ - incumbent, VP
JFK - ok, he did serve a full term in the Senate
Ike - military exec
Truman - incumbent, VP
FDR - Gov.

I suppose we're not dealing with a large data set and it can be done, but I don't know that the Senate is the best road. VP or other cabinet-level position, maybe. Gov. really seems to be the best bet, but yeahhhh....Indiana.

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by tarcone

So Biden vs. Trump. Jeez I wonder who wins?

Way to go Dems. Hope you keep your majority in the house.

Curious who you think has a better shot at beating Trump?

[bronconick]

Originally Posted by Jas_lov

Shouldn't they win their home states? Warren might lose hers. Klobuchar probably wins hers but if she barely beats Sanders what does that achieve. Pete has the right idea dropping out but he's the only one that really needs a cabinet job to get some national experience.

Rubio didn't, and he's a nothing, now.