Werewolf XXVIII: Mad Wizard and the Wolves (Game over Pg45) - Page 43

saldana · 06-08-2006, 07:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Post #1984 by SirFozz:

think that means voting goes back to normal?

saldana · 06-08-2006, 07:40 PM

or that we no longer have any "disguised" wolves left?

SirFozzie · 06-08-2006, 07:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SackAttack

I'm just sayin'...onna dese days, Fozz.

Onna dese days, I'll hit the lottery? Gee Tanks Sack!

SackAttack · 06-08-2006, 07:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by saldana

think that means voting goes back to normal?

With the lucky references to AlanT and his comments about tiebreakers, I'd bet it does.

SackAttack · 06-08-2006, 07:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

Onna dese days, I'll hit the lottery? Gee Tanks Sack!

It'll hit you like a tonna bricks, if you take my meaning.

Barkeep49 · 06-08-2006, 07:43 PM

hoops why are we trying to force a tie? I think there's clearly a stronger candidate here. I'm not sold on SackAttack, but he did come up with the code where CW, who we now can be 99% sure had the info, did not.

hoopsguy · 06-08-2006, 07:43 PM

Votes as of Post #2100:

Tyrith - Lathum (2018), Saldana (2060), Barkeep (2077), Sack (2089)
Sack - Tyrith (2038), Hoops (2088)

No vote - Schmidty

hoopsguy · 06-08-2006, 07:45 PM

Barkeep, if you were the wizard would you accept a coin-flip to determine your fate (or that of your henchman) or would you out yourself?

I'm not sold on the tie strategy, but figured that putting the vote there would at least generate some discussion. We have 75 minutes to go here, so let's dig into this.

Tyrith · 06-08-2006, 07:45 PM

You'll be a lot more sold on him in about 75 minutes :P

hoopsguy · 06-08-2006, 07:46 PM

I'm guessing we are back to normal for voting. Glad that the metrics worked out for us last night.

Tyrith · 06-08-2006, 07:47 PM

Wizard can't afford to use the tiebreak. He has to stay hidden, because if the wizard is found out, he will be killed. Indecision is the only way they can stay in the game. I thought of this plan earlier, but that's what kinda killed it for me.

hoopsguy · 06-08-2006, 07:48 PM

Tyrith, we don't know how the wizard can be killed. He has the ability to flee - we do know that from the rules. But we also know that killing him is hard, based on some pre-game posts from our illustrious GM.

hoopsguy · 06-08-2006, 07:50 PM

Re-reading from last night - Tyrith and AlanT both seemed pretty OK with the idea of a tie going into the vote. Obvious posturing by AlanT, unless both were bad guys ...

Barkeep49 · 06-08-2006, 07:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T

Heh I am just the opposite. My First WW game, our Seer (neon_chaos) had managed to out two bad guys the very first two days (a feat I have never seen before). And I personally felt it got to his head a bit and he went crazy about it. so i argued strongly with him that he needed to reign it back in. By the end of day 3, he was so sure that I was bad and anyone who voted with me was bad that it was painful to watch lol.. I got lynched by my own side as the first villager lynched that game

Ever since, I tend to almost always go early, I think its because I tend to be active in the games. Both when I have been good and bad, I always seem to be an early target for people. But I doubt i will ever change my playing style. I love being active in these games when I can. they are alot of fun for me.

This was my first game I actually lived past day 3.

Alan I've actually put a lot of thought into this as well as I had been unsuccessful in living past early days. I seem to have done better lately

hoopsguy · 06-08-2006, 07:52 PM

Going back to Day 3, I was out of the mix for the last couple of hours. Path led on votes, but Tyrith tried to move votes towards Anxiety instead of looking to go after me while I was away. Is this a +EV move for a human?

There are an awful lot of questions I would like to ask the humans at the end of this game ...

Tyrith · 06-08-2006, 07:54 PM

If were both badguys it probably would have been smarter to orchestrate some sort of dogpile in order to keep information away, especially information about Alan's bogus reveal.

Alan T · 06-08-2006, 07:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Going back to Day 3, I was out of the mix for the last couple of hours. Path led on votes, but Tyrith tried to move votes towards Anxiety instead of looking to go after me while I was away. Is this a +EV move for a human?

There are an awful lot of questions I would like to ask the humans at the end of this game ...

I would love to answer them, but unfortunatly I'm dog food!

SackAttack · 06-08-2006, 07:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T

I would love to answer them, but unfortunatly I'm dog food!

Wolf food. And keep your stinkin' leashes away from us.

Tyrith · 06-08-2006, 07:57 PM

There's no way it's a +EV move for a human, because what if barkeep actually switches? It would make it a 4-4 tie involving a bad guy that could go either way easily and bring up all kinds of bad tiebreaker scenarios. Not giving out information and not rocking the boat when unnecessary is usually best for bad guys, especially with someone as in-depth as you ferreting out things.

Barkeep49 · 06-08-2006, 07:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Barkeep, if you were the wizard would you accept a coin-flip to determine your fate (or that of your henchman) or would you out yourself?

I'm not sold on the tie strategy, but figured that putting the vote there would at least generate some discussion. We have 75 minutes to go here, so let's dig into this.

If I am a werewolf do I really think that 50/50 is the best chance we have at getting a wizard?

saldana · 06-08-2006, 07:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Re-reading from last night - Tyrith and AlanT both seemed pretty OK with the idea of a tie going into the vote. Obvious posturing by AlanT, unless both were bad guys ...

i thougth about this...i figure the wizard can only die if the pack alpha is a vote on him, and probably needs to have a percentage of the day's votes as well (i am 100% guessing about the second part).

therefore, it would make perfect sense for the last henchman and the wizard to get into a runoff where there was a very good chance that the variable laws would mean the alpha's vote may never be counted.

even if lathums vote had been on tyrith, unless it was the ONE vote that counted last night, it didnt kill him, meanwhile, an acutal tie vote without a tie breaker (which we apparently dont have) could have resulted in no lynch at all, giving the humans a free night kill.

saldana · 06-08-2006, 07:59 PM

i think we need to all vote for the same person, and since lathum, who until proven otherwise is the pack alpha, is on tyrith, i think that is where all the rest of us should be too.

Barkeep49 · 06-08-2006, 08:01 PM

What day of the week was D3? Today is the latest vote I've cast all game and I've only been around a few days at lynch so I'm not sure that was a real possiblity (my moving a vote)

SirFozzie · 06-08-2006, 08:01 PM

(grins at reading some of the theories in this thread)

saldana · 06-08-2006, 08:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

(grins at reading some of the theories in this thread)

please see the Star Wars game for lessons on how the DM is supposed to be quiet during the game

Barkeep49 · 06-08-2006, 08:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by saldana

i think we need to all vote for the same person, and since lathum, who until proven otherwise is the pack alpha, is on tyrith, i think that is where all the rest of us should be too.

So hoops you think there are two bad guys left, right? Or at least the possiblity there in. So if I'm the bad guys, why do I try and kill schmidty instead of you last night? Doesn't your living so damn long as the second most useful human role, after seer, suggest some evil on your part?

Tyrith · 06-08-2006, 08:07 PM

No matter what, you all have to kill me now. Lathum's vote is on me, and it isn't going anywhere. As you'll see, it's wrong, but it's okay, you have no way of knowing that now. You all know what I think now. I'm going to play some EQ now, enjoy the show

Barkeep49 · 06-08-2006, 08:08 PM

Tyrith you think it's Sack? Or have we been completely led astray? I am always interested in getting the most out of good guys before we accidently chop them up. Of course I like getting the most out of bad guys too

hoopsguy · 06-08-2006, 08:12 PM

Barkeep, the guys I have protected have both gotten a PM that let them know I was the one who protected them. Cronin and Schmidty have both posted this. So I think it is a pretty enormous stretch to suggest I'm playing as a bad guy.

I don't know if there are 1 or 2 left, but I don't think it helps the wolf cause to assume there is one left and that it must be one of the two guys we are targeting. We have no information to suggest there is just one left, as far as I can tell. I would hate to have victory snatched away from us because we were overconfident and careless at the end.

SirFozzie · 06-08-2006, 08:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by saldana

please see the Star Wars game for lessons on how the DM is supposed to be quiet during the game

Do things my own way. Always have, always will

Besides, it's FUN!

saldana · 06-08-2006, 08:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrith

No matter what, you all have to kill me now. Lathum's vote is on me, and it isn't going anywhere. As you'll see, it's wrong, but it's okay, you have no way of knowing that now. You all know what I think now. I'm going to play some EQ now, enjoy the show

i am now very sure in my vote....why would tyrith say that we have to kill him because lathum is voting him...we can still all vote for someone else except lathum, and unless that person is the wizard, that person will die...dont understand this post at all except for an attempt to guilt us off our votes.

Barkeep49 · 06-08-2006, 08:14 PM

Ok that's good enough to clear hoops. SO then how to look fora second bad guy. Hmm

saldana · 06-08-2006, 08:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

So hoops you think there are two bad guys left, right? Or at least the possiblity there in. So if I'm the bad guys, why do I try and kill schmidty instead of you last night? Doesn't your living so damn long as the second most useful human role, after seer, suggest some evil on your part?

this occured to me as well, but i think it was intentional...leaving hoops alive guarantees at some point, we will look at him and say exactly what you just said, and if we are all paranoid enough, we'll waste a vote and lynch him ourselves.

saldana · 06-08-2006, 08:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Ok that's good enough to clear hoops. SO then how to look fora second bad guy. Hmm

i guess you didnt look at my theory in post 2060

hoopsguy · 06-08-2006, 08:19 PM

I'm expecting at some point that the humans will come after me, as my perceived trust level has increased over the last couple of days.
But with an alpha and a beta out there, there are certainly other impact roles to worry about instead of me.

I'm fine with a pile on Tyrith. I'm less than 100% convinced he is the wizard, but if he is not a henchman than I think it is increasingly likely that we are just facing the wizard. The options for two opponents are harder to wrap my head around with him not having one of the roles.

Barkeep49 · 06-08-2006, 08:20 PM

I both read on it and commented on it, I believe.

hoopsguy · 06-08-2006, 08:23 PM

The super-majority to get the wizard seems plausible. And I don't think it matters if we are 4-3 or 6-1 against Tyrith.

Cronin said that they compelled his vote towards Lathum at one point, so if we are too close in margin we could get worked at the end. Not sure if this was fact or fiction (there were times when he was creative with the information he gave us) but I think it is another reason to avoid going to 4-3 vote count late.

UNVOTE SACKATTACK
VOTE TYRITH

Schmidty · 06-08-2006, 08:40 PM

Ok, this is the last time I have to vote before the deadline, so I'll go with what I had earlier. I'll be back after the deadline in an hour or so.:

Vote Tyrith

hoopsguy · 06-08-2006, 08:43 PM

Is it raining in Boston? Just checking ...

Barkeep49 · 06-08-2006, 08:54 PM

You're such a smart alec.

saldana · 06-08-2006, 08:57 PM

watch the Law be least votes gets lynched

hoopsguy · 06-08-2006, 08:59 PM

Guilty as charged. But it doesn't mean that it isn't going to be a factor ...

saldana · 06-08-2006, 09:01 PM

wow....alone in the thread at the deadline...dont think ive ever seen that in WW before.

hoopsguy · 06-08-2006, 09:10 PM

I got to the point where I considered this a done deal, picked up my laptop, and moved into another room to watch the NBA Finals.

saldana · 06-08-2006, 09:15 PM

foz isnt even on the board right now

SackAttack · 06-08-2006, 09:21 PM

Mom guilted me into filling up her gas tank and making a dinner run for her, or I'd have been here.

"You've been driving my car while yours was in the shop and I don't feel like filling it up even though I need gas."

"...okay, Mom."

SirFozzie · 06-08-2006, 09:33 PM

Family business sorry.

The wizard waves his hands, and Tyrith sighs as he sees the hate in all your eyes.. "I guess I'll be joining you now, brother" he sighs, as you tear him apart.

Your eyes travel back and forth from the wizard to Tyrith..

SirFozzie · 06-08-2006, 09:34 PM

and back and forth..

and nothing happens.

You are disheartened. So Close.. yet so far.

Will another of you fall in the night?

Barkeep49 · 06-08-2006, 09:37 PM

Lathum frankly at this point I resent your playing things so close to the vest if there was anything that could have been done here if you had told us.

hoopsguy · 06-08-2006, 09:37 PM

Sigh - couldn't be that easy.

06-08-2006, 08:01 PM	#2124
SirFozzie Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: The State of Insanity	(grins at reading some of the theories in this thread) __________________ Check out Foz's New Video Game Site, An 8-bit Mind in an 8GB world! http://an8bitmind.com

06-08-2006, 08:40 PM	#2138
Schmidty Coordinator Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Early, TX	Ok, this is the last time I have to vote before the deadline, so I'll go with what I had earlier. I'll be back after the deadline in an hour or so.: Vote Tyrith __________________ Just beat the devil out of it!!! - Bob Ross

06-08-2006, 09:33 PM	#2147
SirFozzie Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: The State of Insanity	Family business sorry. The wizard waves his hands, and Tyrith sighs as he sees the hate in all your eyes.. "I guess I'll be joining you now, brother" he sighs, as you tear him apart. Your eyes travel back and forth from the wizard to Tyrith.. __________________ Check out Foz's New Video Game Site, An 8-bit Mind in an 8GB world! http://an8bitmind.com

06-08-2006, 09:34 PM	#2148
SirFozzie Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: The State of Insanity	and back and forth.. and nothing happens. You are disheartened. So Close.. yet so far. Will another of you fall in the night? __________________ Check out Foz's New Video Game Site, An 8-bit Mind in an 8GB world! http://an8bitmind.com

06-08-2006, 07:40 PM	#2102
saldana Pro Starter Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Bethlehem, Pa	or that we no longer have any "disguised" wolves left?

06-08-2006, 07:43 PM	#2106
Barkeep49 Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Not too far away	hoops why are we trying to force a tie? I think there's clearly a stronger candidate here. I'm not sold on SackAttack, but he did come up with the code where CW, who we now can be 99% sure had the info, did not.

06-08-2006, 07:43 PM	#2107
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Votes as of Post #2100: Tyrith - Lathum (2018), Saldana (2060), Barkeep (2077), Sack (2089) Sack - Tyrith (2038), Hoops (2088) No vote - Schmidty

06-08-2006, 07:45 PM	#2108
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Barkeep, if you were the wizard would you accept a coin-flip to determine your fate (or that of your henchman) or would you out yourself? I'm not sold on the tie strategy, but figured that putting the vote there would at least generate some discussion. We have 75 minutes to go here, so let's dig into this.

06-08-2006, 07:45 PM	#2109
Tyrith College Starter Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Houston, TX	You'll be a lot more sold on him in about 75 minutes :P

06-08-2006, 07:46 PM	#2110
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	I'm guessing we are back to normal for voting. Glad that the metrics worked out for us last night.

06-08-2006, 07:47 PM	#2111
Tyrith College Starter Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Houston, TX	Wizard can't afford to use the tiebreak. He has to stay hidden, because if the wizard is found out, he will be killed. Indecision is the only way they can stay in the game. I thought of this plan earlier, but that's what kinda killed it for me.

06-08-2006, 07:48 PM	#2112
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Tyrith, we don't know how the wizard can be killed. He has the ability to flee - we do know that from the rules. But we also know that killing him is hard, based on some pre-game posts from our illustrious GM.

06-08-2006, 07:50 PM	#2113
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Re-reading from last night - Tyrith and AlanT both seemed pretty OK with the idea of a tie going into the vote. Obvious posturing by AlanT, unless both were bad guys ...

06-08-2006, 07:52 PM	#2115
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Going back to Day 3, I was out of the mix for the last couple of hours. Path led on votes, but Tyrith tried to move votes towards Anxiety instead of looking to go after me while I was away. Is this a +EV move for a human? There are an awful lot of questions I would like to ask the humans at the end of this game ...

06-08-2006, 07:54 PM	#2116
Tyrith College Starter Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Houston, TX	If were both badguys it probably would have been smarter to orchestrate some sort of dogpile in order to keep information away, especially information about Alan's bogus reveal.

06-08-2006, 07:57 PM	#2119
Tyrith College Starter Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Houston, TX	There's no way it's a +EV move for a human, because what if barkeep actually switches? It would make it a 4-4 tie involving a bad guy that could go either way easily and bring up all kinds of bad tiebreaker scenarios. Not giving out information and not rocking the boat when unnecessary is usually best for bad guys, especially with someone as in-depth as you ferreting out things.

06-08-2006, 07:59 PM	#2122
saldana Pro Starter Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Bethlehem, Pa	i think we need to all vote for the same person, and since lathum, who until proven otherwise is the pack alpha, is on tyrith, i think that is where all the rest of us should be too.

06-08-2006, 08:01 PM	#2123
Barkeep49 Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Not too far away	What day of the week was D3? Today is the latest vote I've cast all game and I've only been around a few days at lynch so I'm not sure that was a real possiblity (my moving a vote)

06-08-2006, 08:07 PM	#2127
Tyrith College Starter Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Houston, TX	No matter what, you all have to kill me now. Lathum's vote is on me, and it isn't going anywhere. As you'll see, it's wrong, but it's okay, you have no way of knowing that now. You all know what I think now. I'm going to play some EQ now, enjoy the show

06-08-2006, 08:08 PM	#2128
Barkeep49 Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Not too far away	Tyrith you think it's Sack? Or have we been completely led astray? I am always interested in getting the most out of good guys before we accidently chop them up. Of course I like getting the most out of bad guys too

06-08-2006, 08:12 PM	#2129
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Barkeep, the guys I have protected have both gotten a PM that let them know I was the one who protected them. Cronin and Schmidty have both posted this. So I think it is a pretty enormous stretch to suggest I'm playing as a bad guy. I don't know if there are 1 or 2 left, but I don't think it helps the wolf cause to assume there is one left and that it must be one of the two guys we are targeting. We have no information to suggest there is just one left, as far as I can tell. I would hate to have victory snatched away from us because we were overconfident and careless at the end.

06-08-2006, 08:14 PM	#2132
Barkeep49 Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Not too far away	Ok that's good enough to clear hoops. SO then how to look fora second bad guy. Hmm

06-08-2006, 08:19 PM	#2135
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	I'm expecting at some point that the humans will come after me, as my perceived trust level has increased over the last couple of days. But with an alpha and a beta out there, there are certainly other impact roles to worry about instead of me. I'm fine with a pile on Tyrith. I'm less than 100% convinced he is the wizard, but if he is not a henchman than I think it is increasingly likely that we are just facing the wizard. The options for two opponents are harder to wrap my head around with him not having one of the roles.

06-08-2006, 08:20 PM	#2136
Barkeep49 Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Not too far away	I both read on it and commented on it, I believe.

06-08-2006, 08:23 PM	#2137
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	The super-majority to get the wizard seems plausible. And I don't think it matters if we are 4-3 or 6-1 against Tyrith. Cronin said that they compelled his vote towards Lathum at one point, so if we are too close in margin we could get worked at the end. Not sure if this was fact or fiction (there were times when he was creative with the information he gave us) but I think it is another reason to avoid going to 4-3 vote count late. UNVOTE SACKATTACK VOTE TYRITH

06-08-2006, 08:43 PM	#2139
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Is it raining in Boston? Just checking ...

06-08-2006, 08:54 PM	#2140
Barkeep49 Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Not too far away	You're such a smart alec.

06-08-2006, 08:57 PM	#2141
saldana Pro Starter Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Bethlehem, Pa	watch the Law be least votes gets lynched

06-08-2006, 08:59 PM	#2142
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Guilty as charged. But it doesn't mean that it isn't going to be a factor ...

06-08-2006, 09:01 PM	#2143
saldana Pro Starter Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Bethlehem, Pa	wow....alone in the thread at the deadline...dont think ive ever seen that in WW before.

06-08-2006, 09:10 PM	#2144
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	I got to the point where I considered this a done deal, picked up my laptop, and moved into another room to watch the NBA Finals.

06-08-2006, 09:15 PM	#2145
saldana Pro Starter Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Bethlehem, Pa	foz isnt even on the board right now

06-08-2006, 09:21 PM	#2146
SackAttack Head Coach Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Green Bay, WI	Mom guilted me into filling up her gas tank and making a dinner run for her, or I'd have been here. "You've been driving my car while yours was in the shop and I don't feel like filling it up even though I need gas." "...okay, Mom."

06-08-2006, 09:37 PM	#2149
Barkeep49 Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Not too far away	Lathum frankly at this point I resent your playing things so close to the vest if there was anything that could have been done here if you had told us.