LXXVIII: Politicus Lupus (GAME OVER!! SEE POST #2593 FOR RESULTS)

[illinifan999]

Also my plan could just substitute PB for heinz in terms of who we protect. I'd be willing to take the popularity hit and change my vote if that's what everyone wants to do.

[PurdueBrad]

Okay, seriously! I'm not even through page 36 yet but people from the Republican thread, name one place I've ever pushed for anything power-wise. Secondly, look at my voting record!!!! I'm on Mrs. S and I didn't want to vote PF!!!!! In fact, you'll notice that the day I was gone, I put in an order for my actions to mirror those of a villager I had already scanned and trusted. If you want to vote with Heinz fine but how else was he so familiar and quick with the victory conditions. Hell, I even had to ask him questions about it in the Republican thread.

[chesapeake]

I can confirm that the party was likely going to support Chubby.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

What were the results of those scans?

Sorry Pass, JUST got to here. My scans all came: Tyrith, Pass, RendeR as all (without exactly quoting) good even for a politician. Heinz's came back with a much longer/stranger explanation about being startled but that the wolf in him was "obvious."

[Chubby]

Heading out to do errands around 1:15-1:30 but won't be gone too long.

Just in case there's questions for me.

[chesapeake]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I added in a PM vote I had missed from PurdueBrad into the bill voting and in the lynch. Of course, with both bills passing easily, his votes didn't affect the outcome. The lynch vote might have mattered, except he voted for Mrs. Schmidty. So, really it just put that one away.

CR -- since the timing of PBs vote on Mrs. Schmidty is probably worth knowing -- and we would have seen the time of his vote on the board -- could you let us know when this came in?

[PurdueBrad]

I can even explain why I scanned Heinz yesterday and that is because I wanted to put him on the spotlight and nominate him for speaker. I wanted to put that pressure on him. He said no, not time, but now all of a sudden he wants to be President?!?! Seriously, somebody see this.

I have to leave in twenty-five minutes to go see Batman on IMAX and won't be back until about 6 or 7 CST. If I didn't feel like it would simply be me sitting here bashing my head against a wall, I would cancel.

Waking up before me does not make his "reveal" true, just more timely.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by chesapeake

CR -- since the timing of PBs vote on Mrs. Schmidty is probably worth knowing -- and we would have seen the time of his vote on the board -- could you let us know when this came in?

Hey Chesapeake, and please wait for Chief Rum to back this up, but all my orders and votes went in around 11 am that morning.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

I can even explain why I scanned Heinz yesterday and that is because I wanted to put him on the spotlight and nominate him for speaker. I wanted to put that pressure on him. He said no, not time, but now all of a sudden he wants to be President?!?! Seriously, somebody see this.

I have to leave in twenty-five minutes to go see Batman on IMAX and won't be back until about 6 or 7 CST. If I didn't feel like it would simply be me sitting here bashing my head against a wall, I would cancel.

Waking up before me does not make his "reveal" true, just more timely.

Since you're leaving.

It's true, as Speaker my timeline didn't make any sense. I'm only thinking it's smart for me to be Pres from an un-nightkillable Seer sense, not a game bill-passing sense. Frankly, if we have a Seer that can't be night killed, fuck bills, we don't need 'em.

And I revealed first thing since that's how I play roles. I'm open once I have info.

[jeheinz72]

PB, surely since you've scanned and cleared those folks you have posts outlining your trust in them which you could quote. After all, god forbid you had been night-killed and we wouldn't have clues.

I'd love to see those posts.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

And I revealed first thing since that's how I play roles. I'm open once I have info.

I wasn't faulting you on your timing, I was revealing today after our PMs. I am faulting anyone that blindly believes the first reveal.

[chesapeake]

Turn on CNN. Senator Stevens is a member of the Wolf Party! Holy crap!

[KWhit]

This is fun.

[PurdueBrad]

I am posting this here instead of in the Republican thread. Our first day we debated who to put in what roles. Very early, Pass (who I can clear) threw out the idea of putting Mrs. S as a presidential candidate. The conversation about her died there.

BUT in post 109, when I and a couple others were debating possibly putting up St. Cronin (Hell, things were so unsettled that even Mrs. S put in a vote for Cronin prior to this), Heinz puts up a list of our leader positions that has Mrs. S as the Presidential nominee. Once he did it, I'll admit, we all bowed our heads and said sure but some Republican, please verify this train publically for me.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by KWhit

This is fun.

Glad someone thinks so!

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

I am posting this here instead of in the Republican thread. Our first day we debated who to put in what roles. Very early, Pass (who I can clear) threw out the idea of putting Mrs. S as a presidential candidate. The conversation about her died there.

BUT in post 109, when I and a couple others were debating possibly putting up St. Cronin (Hell, things were so unsettled that even Mrs. S put in a vote for Cronin prior to this), Heinz puts up a list of our leader positions that has Mrs. S as the Presidential nominee. Once he did it, I'll admit, we all bowed our heads and said sure but some Republican, please verify this train publically for me.

I'll do you one better, I'll verify that. But hey, I said I'm Seer here, not friggin perfect.

[jeheinz72]

PB refresh my memory, who did you scan:

Night 1:
Night 2:
Night 3:
Night 4:
Night 5:

[KWhit]

Maybe an idea of going after a third person we think is a wolf today is the way to go. Then let PB and jeheinz live tonight. I presume that neither one would be night killed as killing one of them would out the other as a wolf.

That would allow the real seer to get another scan in and hopefully bag us another wolf. What would the end-game scenarios be in this kind of situation?

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

I'll do you one better, I'll verify that. But hey, I said I'm Seer here, not friggin perfect.

Hehe, you and me both I guess. I'm out, do what you guys want. My vote is out there and I have never asked for any power from my party and pushed only to beat the Democrats and I've at least voted for a wolf. Do with that what you will.

[KWhit]

It strikes me as funny that one of Chubby's main reasons for being suspicious of jeheinze (that he didn't scan illini) also applies to PB.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

PB refresh my memory, who did you scan:

Night 1:
Night 2:
Night 3:
Night 4:
Night 5:

THERE WAS NO NIGHT ONE SCAN BECAUSE WE BLEW THE BILL! The real seer knows this!

Out for sure now but come on, it can't be this glaringly obvious and I'm the only one seeing it.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

THERE WAS NO NIGHT ONE SCAN BECAUSE WE BLEW THE BILL! The real seer knows this!

Out for sure now but come on, it can't be this glaringly obvious and I'm the only one seeing it.

I know, I was trying to trip you up

[jeheinz72]

And to verify that, I only listed my 4 scans as well, because there was only 4 nights to scan. Hey, it was worth a shot.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by KWhit

Maybe an idea of going after a third person we think is a wolf today is the way to go. Then let PB and jeheinz live tonight. I presume that neither one would be night killed as killing one of them would out the other as a wolf.

That would allow the real seer to get another scan in and hopefully bag us another wolf. What would the end-game scenarios be in this kind of situation?

I really prefer the Lynch PB option, but if everyone ends up going that way, I'm all ears as to who you think I should then scan.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

I am posting this here instead of in the Republican thread. Our first day we debated who to put in what roles. Very early, Pass (who I can clear) threw out the idea of putting Mrs. S as a presidential candidate. The conversation about her died there.

BUT in post 109, when I and a couple others were debating possibly putting up St. Cronin (Hell, things were so unsettled that even Mrs. S put in a vote for Cronin prior to this), Heinz puts up a list of our leader positions that has Mrs. S as the Presidential nominee. Once he did it, I'll admit, we all bowed our heads and said sure but some Republican, please verify this train publically for me.

Now that you passed my little test. I'll offer my real reason.

And that is that I put Mrs S up there because I had no idea she was a wolf at the time. I'm a friggin villager. Heck, what was that Day One or Two? If Day one I wasn't even Seer yet, if Day Two, I didn't even have a scan in.

Surely you don't think I'd be so agressive as to actually try to get a fellow wolf as President (since they can be lynched anyhow and are under a microscope it also wouldn't have that much benefit).

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

THERE WAS NO NIGHT ONE SCAN BECAUSE WE BLEW THE BILL! The real seer knows this!
.

Actually, it was the BG bill that was vetoed, not the Seer bill.

We didn't have a Seer for Night One because the bill wasn't passed into law until Night One ended. I was notified of being Seer at the onset of Day Two.

Not a huge deal, but worth noting.

[oliegirl]

Originally Posted by chesapeake

CR -- since the timing of PBs vote on Mrs. Schmidty is probably worth knowing -- and we would have seen the time of his vote on the board -- could you let us know when this came in?

PB's vote was sent in the morning, it was before lunch, so I'd say 11 am is accurate, though I don't have the message anymore (had to clean out by inbox), and CR won't be able to check for a specific time until tonight. But I will say that PB's time estimate of 11 am is correct.

[illinifan999]

heinz, your sig scares me

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by illinifan999

heinz, your sig scares me

Haha, true. I can't blame you in that regard. Though hey, Lathum is like the Master Wolf or whatever and he's still alive.

[Lathum]

So I have a question and in may have already come up in the next 2 pages I havent read yet.

Isn't today the day when re election takes place?

And if you lose your election don't you relinquish control over your district to someone else.

I know for a fact that I have the ability to guarentee someone loses their election tonight, as do others.

If 1 or 2 wolves left have that ability isn't there a scenerio where PB is good, gets killed tonight, then the wolves use that ability to take control of other districts...

[Tyrith]

We have to assume that we're going to win or lose with this vote. There's just too many variables in play to assume otherwise.

Heinz is going to lose his congressional election, looks like, and we're not really doing much in terms of fixing that unless we lynch a wolf today. I don't know if that's good or bad for us. I'm tightly ahead, and Pass, illini, and PB are ahead.

[Passacaglia]

Here's my take:

Assume PB is right: Heinz is a wolf, and me, Tyrith, and PB are all good.

Bad case 1: Heinz, illinifan, and mccollins are wolves. They have 7 districts now. If we lynch PB, they go up to 8, and killing Chubby gives them 9.

Bad case 2: Heinz, Chubby, and mccollins are wolves. Bonus points for the 2-2 split. They have 6 districts now, getting PB lynched gives them none. Killing illinifan gives them two more, and they're at 8. We get heinz at that point, and they're hurting.

Bad case 3: Heinz, illinifan, and Chubby are wolves. They have 6 now. Getting PB lynched bumps them up to 7. Killing mccollins puts them at 8 or 9, depending on how his three districts get split.

Bade case 4: Heinz, Chubby, and chesapeake are wolves. They have 5 now, getting PB lynched keeps them at 5. Killing illinifan puts them at 7 or 8, and killing mccollins puts them at 8.

So we really only need to worry about BC1 and half of BC3 if PB is telling the truth.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

We have to assume that we're going to win or lose with this vote. There's just too many variables in play to assume otherwise.

Heinz is going to lose his congressional election, looks like, and we're not really doing much in terms of fixing that unless we lynch a wolf today. I don't know if that's good or bad for us. I'm tightly ahead, and Pass, illini, and PB are ahead.

I won't lose my election, I have a "save your ass" power remaining.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Here's my take:

Assume PB is right: Heinz is a wolf, and me, Tyrith, and PB are all good.

Bad case 1: Heinz, illinifan, and mccollins are wolves. They have 7 districts now. If we lynch PB, they go up to 8, and killing Chubby gives them 9.

Bad case 2: Heinz, Chubby, and mccollins are wolves. Bonus points for the 2-2 split. They have 6 districts now, getting PB lynched gives them none. Killing illinifan gives them two more, and they're at 8. We get heinz at that point, and they're hurting.

Bad case 3: Heinz, illinifan, and Chubby are wolves. They have 6 now. Getting PB lynched bumps them up to 7. Killing mccollins puts them at 8 or 9, depending on how his three districts get split.

Bade case 4: Heinz, Chubby, and chesapeake are wolves. They have 5 now, getting PB lynched keeps them at 5. Killing illinifan puts them at 7 or 8, and killing mccollins puts them at 8.

So we really only need to worry about BC1 and half of BC3 if PB is telling the truth.

And I'm still of the strong opinion that the wolves were equally distributed at the start of the game.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by KWhit

And I'm still of the strong opinion that the wolves were equally distributed at the start of the game.

Good to know I'm not the only one who hasn't lost his mind.

Do you folks REALLY think CR would basically make a major victory impossible for 5 of the villagers?

[Passacaglia]

Now, assume heinz is right: PB is a wolf, and heinz and Tyrith are good.

Bad case 1: PB, illinfan and mccollins are wolves. They have EIGHT districts now. Heinz getting lynched COULD put them at nine at the end of the day, and the game is over -- depends on if his district goes to henry or illinifan. This is REALLY BAD -- there's a lot we can do at night with BG protection, and preventing people from getting elected -- but not if we lose during the day. My hunch is that CR would give the district to henry in order to keep things even, but before finishing the rest of this post, I'm pretty sure we don't want to risk that.

Bad case 2: PB, Chubby, and mccollins are wolves. They have 7 districts now. Heinz's lynch does nothing for them, but killing illinifan would put them at 9 districts.

Bad case 3: PB, illinifan, and Chubby are wolves. They have 7 districts now. Heinz's lynch might give them 8, and killing mccollins gives them 1 or 2 more. They could be anywhere from 8 to 10 by the end of the night.

Bad case 4: PB, Chubby, and chesapeake are wolves. They have 5 now, getting Heinz lynched does nothing for them, and killing mccollins puts them at 8.

Here, we need to worry about BC1, BC2, and 2/3 of BC3.

[chesapeake]

Originally Posted by Lathum

If 1 or 2 wolves left have that ability isn't there a scenerio where PB is good, gets killed tonight, then the wolves use that ability to take control of other districts...

Yes. I tried to make the same point in an earlier post today.

[jeheinz72]

It's worth noting that PB didn't drop a single hint that he was Seer all throughout. No mention of his trusting Pass, Tyrith or RendeR, people he allegedly cleared throughout. Boy, if he was the Seer he sure wasn't doing the village any sort of favors.

I dropped no fewer than 6 hints of people as I scanned them (and that's keeping in mind that my first scan was a complete bust)

[Lathum]

So I have a question.

If JEHeinze is a wolf, how does he know PB is the seer? He would have to have been told who scanned him. Otherwise it would be a crazy coincidence that the person Heinze went for is the seer.

[Passacaglia]

Now, assume heinz is right: PB is a wolf, and heinz and Tyrith are good.

Bad case 1: PB, illinfan and mccollins are wolves. They have EIGHT districts now. Heinz getting lynched COULD put them at nine at the end of the day, and the game is over -- depends on if his district goes to henry or illinifan. This is REALLY BAD -- there's a lot we can do at night with BG protection, and preventing people from getting elected -- but not if we lose during the day. My hunch is that CR would give the district to henry in order to keep things even, but before finishing the rest of this post, I'm pretty sure we don't want to risk that.

Bad case 2: PB, Chubby, and mccollins are wolves. They have 7 districts now. Heinz's lynch does nothing for them, but killing illinifan would put them at 9 districts.

Bad case 3: PB, illinifan, and Chubby are wolves. They have 7 districts now. Heinz's lynch might give them 8, and killing mccollins gives them 1 or 2 more. They could be anywhere from 8 to 10 by the end of the night.

Bad case 4: PB, Chubby, and chesapeake are wolves. They have 5 now, getting Heinz lynched does nothing for them, and killing mccollins puts them at 8.

Here, we need to worry about BC1, BC2, and 2/3 of BC3.

[illinifan999]

Originally Posted by Lathum

So I have a question.

If JEHeinze is a wolf, how does he know PB is the seer? He would have to have been told who scanned him. Otherwise it would be a crazy coincidence that the person Heinze went for is the seer.

This is what I was thinking as well.

[Tyrith]

No, I'm with you heinz -- which means realistically we're probably okay right now. However, illini dying tonight would be ultra bad for us if we lynch the wrong person out of the PB/heinz pair. Ultimately I think we're probably going to have to make a choice between the two.

Lynching a dem is going to cause us problems today, I think -- none of our scenarios even include Lathum or henry as potential wolves because it's less urgent, but it still effects the probabilities of ches/chub/mcc being a wolf just the same.

[illinifan999]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

No, I'm with you heinz -- which means realistically we're probably okay right now. However, illini dying tonight would be ultra bad for us if we lynch the wrong person out of the PB/heinz pair. Ultimately I think we're probably going to have to make a choice between the two.

That's why I think whoever the BG is should protect me, and the doctor will protect whoever we decide to believe is the seer.

[jeheinz72]

Can illini even get night killed yet? What's the timing of that as far as a new pres taking over?

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Lathum

So I have a question.

If JEHeinze is a wolf, how does he know PB is the seer? He would have to have been told who scanned him. Otherwise it would be a crazy coincidence that the person Heinze went for is the seer.

Accoring to PB, something startled both of them. And that's another thing I've been thinking along -- this isn't even part of CR's ruleset. This is a bill WE wrote, and I don't see anything that allows for this. This seems to be too much even for Supreme Court intervention, to spring us with the seer getting spotted.

[jeheinz72]

FTR, looking at Pass's cases, I think it in a way proves what I think a lot of people believe, that Chesapeake isn't a wolf. Or is less likely to be one.

[Tyrith]

And heinz makes the best argument he can for himself -- he's been trying to help us. That could be neutral, though, if this seer play was something planned in advance -- but if the wolves didn't know who the seer was and killed him that could seriously backfire. To his detriment the hint dropping could have easily gotten him killed by now, but hasn't -- but that involves second and third level thinking that could go either way.

I think heinz has played this better than PB, regardless of whichever side he's on, and at the end of the day that will probably lure me to taking his side.

[KWhit]

Agreed. I've leaned toward believing Heinz from the start.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

No, I'm with you heinz -- which means realistically we're probably okay right now. However, illini dying tonight would be ultra bad for us if we lynch the wrong person out of the PB/heinz pair. Ultimately I think we're probably going to have to make a choice between the two.

Lynching a dem is going to cause us problems today, I think -- none of our scenarios even include Lathum or henry as potential wolves because it's less urgent, but it still effects the probabilities of ches/chub/mcc being a wolf just the same.

I think if Lathum or henry are wolves, we don't lose much by letting them live -- they'd have to kill two people each before getting more than two districts. Well, maybe Henry could get 3 by killing Chubby. But even then, henry and mccollins would have 6 total, and neither PB nor heinz would help them get to 8. henry, illinifan, and mccollins could get to 9, but that means that either there were 5 wolves to start, or that this whole thing is one villager-villager misunderstanding, which I doubt.

[Lathum]

there is something really creepy about believing Heinze, I just have had a bad feeling for him all game bur occams razor says Heinze is telling the truth