If Trump Loses In November, What Do You Think Happens Next

[ISiddiqui]

I do get Clyburn's concern. An Impeachment trial that starts on Jan 21 or so means that Biden's Cabinet picks get pushed back at least a few weeks.

I think you have to go forward on Impeachment, but it really could hamstring Biden for a month.

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[GrantDawg]

Jphillips, doing it earlier means nothing. They can't give the Senate the indictment until the 19th whether they do it Wenesday or last Friday. It is not going to speed up the process at all.

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[Ghost Econ]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

I do get Clyburn's concern. An Impeachment trial that starts on Jan 21 or so means that Biden's Cabinet picks get pushed back at least a few weeks.

I think you have to go forward on Impeachment, but it really could hamstring Biden for a month.

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A month of a minor inconvenience vs doing the right thing doesnt seem like much of a choice.

[ISiddiqui]

There is a reason that people talk so much about the First 100 Days though. It's when the momentum is strongest and big things tend to get done as a result.

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[GrantDawg]

I did get it from a government lawyer that these early charges for the Rioters are placeholders. The bigger charges come after the investigation is complete. These early charges are the ones they use to open the investigative tool box.

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[JPhillips]

I don't know where a month comes from. The first impeachment took about 2 weeks and they could shorten that with longer days or make the mornings free for other business.

This is simply too big to move on from. There have to be consequences.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Jphillips, doing it earlier means nothing. They can't give the Senate the indictment until the 19th whether they do it Wenesday or last Friday. It is not going to speed up the process at all.

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Every day of delay makes it less likely to happen. The GOP is pressing hard to make this go away and Dems don't exactly have a reputation for staying focused.

[JPhillips]

dola

Speaker Pelosi tells @60Minutes she and Sen. Chuck Schumer called VP Mike Pence to urge him to initiate the 25th amendment and were kept on the line for "at least" 20 minutes. He never came on the phone.

"We're still waiting for him to return the call," she says.

So a resolution is going to make him do it?

[Lathum]

Nothing says unity and coming together like refusing to take a phone call

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

And probably old news but I had just seen it. Trump's going to address the crazy crowd at 11:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/tru...-certification

EDIT: I mean there's like small but certainly not non-zero odds that Trump thinks he can just rally the crazies and then try to break down the doors of Congress and take over this afternoon.

SI

Looking through my old posts from Wednesday morning. I guess my "small but certainly non-zero odds" came in.

Remember way back 4 days ago when we were worried about who was going to take the fall: Pence or Grassley or someone else?

SI

[Edward64]

So does anyone know why there didn't seem to be any Capitol Police drawing their firearms? (other than those in the barricaded chamber).

Or did they and I just didn't see those videos

[kingfc22]

My prediction is Dems do nothing and shit really hits the fan with the wackos on the 20th.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Edward64

So does anyone know why there didn't seem to be any Capitol Police drawing their firearms? (other than those in the barricaded chamber).

Or did they and I just didn't see those videos

Pretty much a whole lotta nope. It's been one of the big mysteries in this event. Why didn't they have enough officers? And why didn't they use any force?

I mean, one speculation is that they were armed, so maybe they were trying not to escalate? That doesn't seem to wash as you'd think "more armed = more dangerous". "My toddler is yelling really loud so I should give in" seems like bad policy for future encounters.

Another obvious one is that "they're not dark skinned enough". We all know if this was a BLM protest, they'd have been beating and using less lethal projectiles just as they did all summer.

https://twitter.com/LiteraryMouse/st...73482550468609

This interesting thread is from someone who was part of the crowd on Wednesday and was also there in the summer. She kept waiting for the tear gas and rubber bullets to come down and they never came.

But that thread also picks apart the other answer that's been kicked around /a lot/ the last few days: they were ordered not to or put in a position not to and facilitate, knowingly or unknowingly, a coup.

I'm pretty sure I've posted this a couple of times already, but here's a repost: US allies say Trump attempted coup with help from federal law enforcement - Business Insider
Look, it's one thing for conspiracy junkies on the internet to kick it around but when foreign officers in other countries are, may be worth looking into.

SI

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by kingfc22

My prediction is Dems do nothing and shit really hits the fan with the wackos on the 20th.

It's not an impossible prediction. And there's a lot on the 20th that feels wrong already. He's not going to do a virtual session, he's going to be in the open air for the inauguration at the same spot where all these wackos were last week, he's going to take the train in.

He's not a dummy - he has to know there's a significant risk to his person on that day. Harris, too. Pence, too. Roberts, too. I have no idea about McConnell or Pelosi but even without them, that's a lot of high profile targets all in the same place at the same time. I hope some serious consideration is given to where others will be, designated survivors, etc.

SI

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

I hope some serious consideration is given to where others will be, dedicated survivors, etc.

The cancelled Designated Survivor. The idea was great, some storylines/arcs not so much.

I saw there is a Korean version on Netflix but never watched it.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Edward64

The cancelled Designated Survivor. The idea was great, some storylines/arcs not so much.

I saw there is a Korean version on Netflix but never watched it.

Whoops - typo fixed. Thanks! I'm getting tired.

SI

[thesloppy]

Originally Posted by Edward64

So does anyone know why there didn't seem to be any Capitol Police drawing their firearms? (other than those in the barricaded chamber).

Or did they and I just didn't see those videos

It's just baffling, because whatever reasoning you want to come up with about situational bias or surprise or whatever, shouldn't these particular officers in this particular building have been expressly & systematically selected & trained with literally hundreds of years of preparation for this exact situation?

[Thomkal]

Not sure this was mentioned-the FBI did arrest zip tie guy-30 year old in TN

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by thesloppy

It's just baffling, because whatever reasoning you want to come up with about situational bias or surprise or whatever, shouldn't these particular officers in this particular building have been expressly & systematically selected & trained with literally hundreds of years of preparation for this exact situation?

From the BI article I linked to above:

The French police official said they believed that an investigation would find that someone interfered with the deployment of additional federal law-enforcement officials on the perimeter of the Capitol complex; the official has direct knowledge of the proper procedures for security of the facility...

"You cannot tell me I don't know what they should have done. I can fly to Washington tomorrow and do that job, just as any police official in Washington can fly to Paris and do mine," the official said. The official directs public security in a central Paris police district filled with government buildings and tourist sites.

"These are not subtle principles" for managing demonstrations, "and they transfer to every situation," the official said. "This is why we train alongside the US federal law enforcement to handle these very matters, and it's obvious that large parts of any successful plan were just ignored."

SI

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Not sure this was mentioned-the FBI did arrest zip tie guy-30 year old in TN

They've arrested two of them. If you want to watch them be tracked down in real time, this Twitter account is fascinating: https://twitter.com/jsrailton/ News of arrests of the two zip-tie guys are in the pinned post. He's a digital forensic guy at University of Toronto and coordinating crowdsourcing investigations of the people at the Capitol. I have lost quite a few hours these past few days watching them work.

A little good news/bad news about the zip-tie guys. It appears that both of them may have picked up some zip ties from a capitol police duffel that was abandoned. It was a bit more spontaneous and, probably, less dangerous than it appeared. They sound like they have no idea what they're doing and just liked to play CoD militia dress up.

The older guy was former military and probably had the training to do some bad stuff but didn't really have an aim, near as can be told. There's a story in the New Yorker about him (and also talks about John Scott-Railton - the guy who runs the Twitter account linked above): An Air Force Combat Veteran Breached the Senate and Descended on Nancy Pelosi’s Office Suite | The New Yorker

There's a cute bit of karma with the younger dumbass. He was identified in part by local BLM activists in Nashville because he and his racist buddies liked to harass them last summer.

SI

[thesloppy]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

From the BI article I linked to above:

Yeah, I doubt we ever get an answer that sounds acceptable in hindsight, but hopefully there's multiple thorough investigations.

On the other hand, one of the tributes I read from a representative to the officer who killed himself today mentioned how that officer opened the door for him every day, which he certainly didn't mean as any kind of put down, and does nothing to explain/excuse the apparent collective lack of action, but it does serve to show that it's a fine line between serving as a 9-5 doorman every day of your life & the last line of defense for the leaders of the free world.

[Swaggs]

The thing that is going to make this look much worse, if that is possible, is when the information about why the National Guard was not mobilized just as a matter of general security for a large, scheduled public gathering and then delayed in being deployed once the siege was underway.

News is starting to trickle out that the capital police requested and were denied and it appears that Trump refused (and it was, in fact, Pence that eventually made the call).

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Alabama man arrested, another dies during insurrection at Capitol

The disconnect some of these people have is staggering.

From the article about the guy who had a heart attack



Then from the guys Parler account

That was the dude who tazed himself in the balls until he had that heart attack.

[thesloppy]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

The older guy was former military and probably had the training to do some bad stuff but didn't really have an aim, near as can be told. There's a story in the New Yorker about him (and also talks about John Scott-Railton - the guy who runs the Twitter account linked above): An Air Force Combat Veteran Breached the Senate and Descended on Nancy Pelosi’s Office Suite | The New Yorker

There's a cute bit of karma with the younger dumbass. He was identified in part by local BLM activists in Nashville because he and his racist buddies liked to harass them last summer.

SI

The younger guy also attended the protest with his 57 year old mother.


As the growing details surrounding the actions of the collective mob get worse and more brutal with every day, the details emerging surrounding the individuals themselves, even those that appeared the most terrifying & coordinated at first glance, only continue to paint the same old picture, of the same old rabid, moron clowns in tactical gear, as time goes on.


I've read random chatter insisting Blackwater or some military organization was obviously operating in the shadows, which seems pretty ridiculous at this point, given the results & evidence (or lack thereof).

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

That was the dude who tazed himself in the balls until he had that heart attack.

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

God, the Dems are a fucking waste of time. Pelosi announced that Mon or Tues they'll vote on a resolution asking Pence to invoke the 25th and if that doesn't happen after at least 24 hours they'll maybe impeach.

Just do the right thing and stop demanding other people do your job. She's doing a tremendous job of keeping the GOP out of a very difficult vote and validating their BS concern trolling at the same time.

Originally Posted by thesloppy

..and then maybe 100 days after that they will advance the articles to the Senate. The leadership of both parties really are the worst of their peers at this point.

The House could have voted to impeach as soon as they were done approving the Electoral Votes, but here's the reality:

1) McConnell is not going to put his caucus in the position of voting on impeachment a second time unless the caucus MAKES him; I don't know if there are 19 Republicans willing to vote to convict, but less than 40% of his caucus isn't gonna be enough for him to say 'okay let's knock off the pro forma and get something started.'

2) The 100 days thing is...look, guys, it's a nice thought. You wanna give Biden as much of a tailwind as you can in his first 100 days and THEN look to prevent Trump from holding office again. But you know what? By that point, you're talking about, essentially, retroactive impeachment.

Yes, yes, he'll have been impeached already and it's just the trial and putative conviction, but it's still, essentially, removing from office a President who's already left office so you can ban him from running again. And I guess there's an argument that says since that ban is one of the Constitutional penalties for conviction, that they can Constitutionally impose it now or 100 days from now.

But, uh.

There's no jurisprudence one way or the other on the Constitutionality of retroactive impeachment. And I would be willing to bet that where the judiciary - even Trump-appointed judges - proved unwilling to give credence to Trump's "MASSIVE VOTER FRAUD THAT WE'RE NOT GONNA TRY TO PROVE JUST OVERTURN THE ELECTION" play, that wouldn't be the case when he sues about retroactive impeachment.

The argument would probably go something like "he's no longer in office, so he can't be removed, and using the impeachment clause to hit him with a ban from holding public office would run afoul of the Equal Protection Clause of the 14th Amendment, because you're treating him differently under the law than any other private citizen. Which, now, he is."

So if you're gonna do it, knowing that it's gonna be essentially another dog-and-pony show (except WORSE because here you've got incitement of insurrection that the WHOLE FUCKING WORLD saw, and the WHOLE FUCKING WORLD will see Republicans unwilling to bar Trump from office over it), you gotta do it now. Even knowing it's gonna be a dog-and-pony. Because the only thing worse than a dog-and-pony that gets stymied by opposition intransigence is a dog-and-pony that goes tits up because you gave Trump an iota of unnecessary daylight to squeeze through.

[CrimsonFox]

QAnon congresswoman faces calls for arrest after live-tweeting Nancy Pelosi's location to rioters - Raw Story - Celebrating 16 Years of Independent Journalism

https://www.fox21news.com/top-storie...g-her-removal/

[albionmoonlight]

I understand that betting on the Dems to be more politically savvy than McConnell is kind of like betting on the Washington Generals. But I actually think they may have caught him a bit flat-footed with the "don't send the articles immediately" thing.

McConnell wants several things (not sure of order of priority): (1) Trump out of the White House and out of GOP politics going forward; (2a) Trump's base still energized--just for the GOP generally and not for Trump personally; (2b) Preventing his members from having to take strong public positions regarding Trump that force them to choose between pissing off Trump's base or horrifying normal people; (3) The Biden administration hobbled, unpopular, and discredited.

So I think that McConnell wants Trump gone via 25th A or resignation or running out the clock. He does not want an impeachment because it would force his members to take a public stand about Trump. But he can't force the House to impeach or not.

So he had a kind of brilliant idea. He floated out there that the Senate was legally barred from acting on the Articles of Impeachment until after the inauguration. He figured "Hey, Impeach him if you want, but I will make sure that if you do, it throws sand in the gears of Biden's presidency." It suddenly made impeachment costly for the Dems. His press release/letter even says that they could not act on them until the 20th or the 21st. That was clearly how he saw it going.

Then the Dems (and I can't believe that I am typing this) did something smart. They realized that they could hold the articles. They could wait until the Georgia Dems were seated so that they would be in charge of the Senate procedures when the Senate tries him.

They can wait for people who are in federal law enforcement/the military to come forward and explain that orders came from the WH to basically stand down and let this happen. I mean, do you think that as stuff leaks over the next few weeks, it will look better for President Trump?

Also, Trump will be stewing in Florida--under stress from the pending impeachment trial; under stress from his creditors coming after him; under stress from leaks about various state AGs ramping up investigations; under stress b/c of his continued social media ban; under stress b/c he's actually legally barred from living at Mar-A-Lago, and his neighbors won't let that issue drop. And has Trump ever acted non-treasonous when he's been under stress?

So, Biden starts his administration focused on vaccines instead of herd immunity. He focuses on rebuilding the economy. He installs a cabinet. He sends Justice Breyer some brochures on wonderful retirement communities in the Southwest. He basically starts doing what we elected him to do.

And, at some point, Trump (under stress and needing attention) will do something that horrifies the 55% of us that don't consider him a God-Emperor. Or something will leak about Trump having asked about if the terrorists do kill Pence does he get to still be President or something.

And then, at that moment of maximum anti-Trump "holy shit," the House sends over the Articles of Impeachment. (And remember, the Senate will be able to take evidence and force people to testify, etc. unlike last time.) And McConnell's people will be forced to vote in that environment.

Basically, the Dems have pointed out to McConnell that Impeachment might be hard on the GOP. Which I think increases the odds of 25th A or forced resignation.

[miami_fan]

This NYT article lays out many details that Edward64 and others are looking for with the who, what, where, why and how's of the failure from last week. This includes a few names and times Edward I am not a paid subscriber but I do have a free account and was able to read the whole thing.

bars

Long story short.

1. There is a whole lot of blame to go around.

2. The old adage "Failing to plan is planning to fail." is very appropriate.

3. We got very lucky this was not a whole lot worse.

[Edward64]

Just saw below article, it has more details. The inevitable CYA has gone into full swing and do think the only way to really know what happened is some formal investigation.

Supposed NG presence was denied for the protests because of the bad optics. I get that. But there were a bunch of other failures here.

Ex-Capitol Police Chief Says Requests For National Guard Denied 6 Times In Riots : NPR

The former chief of U.S. Capitol Police says security officials at the House and Senate rebuffed his early requests to call in the National Guard ahead of a demonstration in support of President Trump that turned into a deadly attack on Congress.

Former chief Steven Sund -- who resigned his post last week after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi called for him to step down -- made the assertions in an interview with The Washington Post published Sunday.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

This NYT article lays out many details that Edward64 and others are looking for with the who, what, where, why and how's of the failure from last week. This includes a few names and times Edward I am not a paid subscriber but I do have a free account and was able to read the whole thing.

bars

Thanks!

Unfortunately I've used up my free reads for the month. And Chrome incognito does not work.

[CrimsonFox]

25 people under investigation for terrorism related to riot at Capitol

I wonder if this thread can surpass the main trump thread

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Thanks!

Unfortunately I've used up my free reads for the month. And Chrome incognito does not work.

I am so sick of the NYT and Washington Post clickbait. Call me cheap but I wish people would stop quoting those things. (And by people I mean people on facebook)

[thesloppy]

Originally Posted by SackAttack

So if you're gonna do it, knowing that it's gonna be essentially another dog-and-pony show (except WORSE because here you've got incitement of insurrection that the WHOLE FUCKING WORLD saw, and the WHOLE FUCKING WORLD will see Republicans unwilling to bar Trump from office over it), you gotta do it now. Even knowing it's gonna be a dog-and-pony. Because the only thing worse than a dog-and-pony that gets stymied by opposition intransigence is a dog-and-pony that goes tits up because you gave Trump an iota of unnecessary daylight to squeeze through.

Yup. Both McConnell and Pelosi seem incapable of thinking outside of long-form gamesmanship & neither is willing or able to legislate in any manner without also crafting or presenting some sort of elaborate trojan horse along the way.

[CrimsonFox]

I adore that this exists

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Just saw below article, it has more details. The inevitable CYA has gone into full swing and do think the only way to really know what happened is some formal investigation.

Supposed NG presence was denied for the protests because of the bad optics. I get that. But there were a bunch of other failures here.

Ex-Capitol Police Chief Says Requests For National Guard Denied 6 Times In Riots : NPR

Remember when I discussed the process?

Senior Army official Lt. Gen. Walter E. Piatt, director of the Army Staff, said on the call he couldn't recommend that Army Secretary Ryan McCarthy authorize deployment, Sund and others on the call told the Post. Piatt reportedly said, "I don't like the visual of the National Guard standing a police line with the Capitol in the background," the Post reported.

I don't remember mentioning the Director of the Army Staff in the approval process.

[ISiddiqui]

I would note that the person who floated the wait 100 days to send over the Articles of Impeachment was James Clyburn... Who is well known for his political maneuvering (see 2020 primaries).

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[Lathum]

So is it possible Pence wont invoke the 25th amendment because he is afraid for his family and his own safety?

[Ksyrup]

Inbox: New York State Bar Association moves to remove Rudy Giuliani from membership

— Josh Lederman (@JoshNBCNews) January 11, 2021

EDIT: In some states, bar association membership is separate from license to practice. I'm guessing that's the case in NY so this isn't as good as it seems.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Inbox: New York State Bar Association moves to remove Rudy Giuliani from membership

— Josh Lederman (@JoshNBCNews) January 11, 2021

EDIT: In some states, bar association membership is separate from license to practice. I'm guessing that's the case in NY so this isn't as good as it seems.

Is this a quick process?

[Lathum]

dola- Jeff Flake saying he was on the hill 9/11 and the baseball field getting shot at and this was the worst thing he has seen.

[Toddzilla]

Originally Posted by Lathum

So is it possible Pence wont invoke the 25th amendment because he is afraid for his family and his own safety?

Not sure why - if he does and succeeds (which he would), he'd be POTUS and he and his family would quite literally be the most protected people on earth.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Toddzilla

Not sure why - if he does and succeeds (which he would), he'd be POTUS and he and his family would quite literally be the most protected people on earth.

Yeah, but if he tries and Trump somehow counters it, he'll be really, really hated by 38M - 70M people.

[ISiddiqui]

Live updates: House Democrats introduce article of impeachment charging Trump with ‘incitement of insurrection’
By John Wagner and Paulina Firozi

https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...-live-updates/



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[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

I would note that the person who floated the wait 100 days to send over the Articles of Impeachment was James Clyburn... Who is well known for his political maneuvering (see 2020 primaries).

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It would be the smart move. It is exactly what McConnell would do. Instead, I am guessing the Dems are going to have an immediate trial, and the Republicans are going to do whatever they can to stretch out the process. "The defense calls 75 million witnesses, starting with A.A Aardvark."

[GrantDawg]

Parler may be down, but...

Wow, a hacker has now archived 99.9% of all Parler data including riot videos and GPS locations—now more than 56 terabytes in size, @donk_enby says raw video includes GPS coordinates, which point to the locations of users when the videos were filmed.
https://t.co/ZdXOzrgT6T

— Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) January 11, 2021

[cuervo72]

I was going to say, I doubt most of these folks went to the trouble of scrubbing exif data from pics, etc.

[BYU 14]

Sometimes the hackers accomplish some good, hopefully that data is used wisely.

[ISiddiqui]

Well the FBI now has easy access to that data (granted they would eventually have gotten it though subpoena I'm sure)

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[GrantDawg]

"Now is a time for healing" i cry as i light a molotov cocktail

— rad left dem (@rad_left_dem) January 11, 2021