2009 MLB Regular Season Thread

[stevew]

If we're going to talk up HOF things, why is Omar Vizquel an afterthought, and Ozzie Smith made it on the first ballot.

I think it was sackattack who said something like "Omar didn't do enough back flips"

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Probably the same reason Jacoby Ellsbury would have been an All-Star back then.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by stevew

If we're going to talk up HOF things, why is Omar Vizquel an afterthought, and Ozzie Smith made it on the first ballot.

I think it was sackattack who said something like "Omar didn't do enough back flips"

Statistically Vizquel isn't in the same dimension as Ozzie.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Hm. That doesn't sound supportable.

[molson]

Ozzie Smith is in on his defense alone, obviously.

They sure loved him back in the day. Can you imagine someone finishing runner-up in the MVP voting while hitting zero home runs and barely hitting .300 like Smith did in '87?

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs2

Hm. That doesn't sound supportable.

Really?

Defensive stats aren't as good as offensive stats going back before the +/- systems, but FRAA does a solid job of comparing players across eras defensively.

Ozzie's career FRAA: 388

Vizquel's career FRAA: -57


I'll have to see if I can find defensive win shares, but I know they have consistently pegged Vizquel as a good-very good defensive shortstop (and borderline gold glove level), but nowhere close to Ozzie's standards.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Oh, I thought you were speaking offensively. I'm willfully ignorant to defensive metrics because I haven't been convinced that they work.

[Atocep]

Career Win Shares (includes offensive numbers) - Ozzie is at 325 and Vizquel is at 260 as of the beginning of last year. They're similar hitters so it should give a good idea the difference between the two defensively.

Dan Fox's simple fielding runs looks like this:

Ozzie Smith 199
Mark Belanger 198
Cal Ripken 165
Bert Campaneris 144
Omar Vizquel 140
Rick Burleson 123
Chris Speier 104
Roger Metzger 104
Alan Trammell 88
Rey Sanchez 88

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs2

Oh, I thought you were speaking offensively. I'm willfully ignorant to defensive metrics because I haven't been convinced that they work.

Looking at just one can is where you get into trouble. You really have to see if there's a consensus across 2-3 or even more. Even the most generous advanced metrics have Vizquel as poor choice for the HoF and trailing Ozzie by a wide margin, though.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

I could buy it. Where do you find career win shares data?

[Atocep]

BBTF had a discussion last year comparing the two with win shares and several other metrics used throughout the comments.

BBTF's Newsblog Discussion :: Schulman: Vizquel builds strong resume, but is he first-ballot HOF pick?


Hardball times tracks win shares, but navigating that site looking for a specific stat is a pain in the ass. For Ozzie's numbers I was using Bill James abstract.

[JS19]

BREAKING NEWS: The Mets have hit a HR!!!! Wrights first HR in 100 ABs

[Dr. Sak]

3 Homers by the Phils...2 by the Mets in the middle of the 6th.

[JS19]

not to mention a ball of the wall by Sheff, who subsequently was thrown out at 2nd, and now one by Tatis, who apparently is still young enough to make it to 2nd on a ball off the wall.

[miked]

1st and 2nd, no outs, down by 1 with Garret Anderson up. Then runner on 3rd with 2 outs. Yay for the shittiest starting outfielder in baseball. I can't imagine too many more useless players. An OPS of .647 and he's played in a majority of their games. Though "Frenchy" has an OPS of .616 in 55 games. I can't believe this team is .500 right now. At least Greg Norton gets the start at 1B who is 4-33 this season.

[Logan]

I'm not as mad as I was before since the Mets are up 6-5 now...but why the fuck do we even have tag plays if umpires make absolutely no effort to see if a catcher tags the runner before he slides over the plate? This "he's out if the ball beats him" is complete bullshit when the throw is in the dirt and the catcher is still cradling the ball.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs2

I would assume either Holliday or Bay will be playing LF for the Yankees next year. Bay resigning with Boston is far from a sure thing.

God I hope Bay has better sense then to go there. His father would probably disown him too, as a lifelong Red Sox fan.

[DaddyTorgo]

why is our backup-backup-SS a fucking GAMER!!!

GO LIL NICKY!!!

[JS19]

Originally Posted by Logan

I'm not as mad as I was before since the Mets are up 6-5 now...but why the fuck do we even have tag plays if umpires make absolutely no effort to see if a catcher tags the runner before he slides over the plate? This "he's out if the ball beats him" is complete bullshit when the throw is in the dirt and the catcher is still cradling the ball.

Seriously, even if he wasn't cradling the ball, he still slid under the tag and would have made it. But this is a great game tonight, I'll give Rollins credit, having an awful season but leads off the 9th with a base hit, then has a great takeout slide to keep them out of the game ending DP.

[Logan]

Agreed, it sucks when a player you hate so much makes such an awesome, old school play.

Dobbs punched out. Nice job K-Rod.

[Crapshoot]

The Giants scored 9 runs. I'm worried that the apocalypse is coming.

[sterlingice]

So I'm trying to wait until for the 10-0 A's/Twins game to end so I can put in my streak for the cash game for tomorrow. I figure it will just be 5 minutes but here we are over half an hour later and it's 10-5 with the bases loaded and Joe Nathan just came in

SI

[tarcone]

Are the Cards going to make a move? Or are the going to sit on their hands and watch the season fade away and then watch LaRussa leave, followed closely by Pujols?

I hate the new GM.

[Ksyrup]

Via Rob Neyer's blog, looks like the Yankee Stadium HR mystery is all but solved:

The barrage of home runs at new Yankee Stadium is being caused by shorter dimensions, not weather, according to AccuWeather.com.

The meteorology company said Tuesday that 20 of the 105 home runs hit at the $1.5 billion ballpark would not have gone out of the old Yankee Stadium.

"For someone attending a game at the new Yankee Stadium or watching on TV, the size of the playing field appears to be the same," AccuWeather meteorologist Tim Buckley said in a statement Tuesday. "The dimensions at select corners of the field are identical -- and the posted numbers on the walls reflect that. However, detailed schematics of the park reveal some nuances that have significant implications."

Speculation has centered on whether there is a wind tunnel in right field caused by either the open concourses or the slope of the stands, which is less steep that the original Yankee Stadium.

AccuWeather agreed with the conclusions of Greg Rybarczyk of hittrackeronline.com, who said in April that right field in the new ballpark was shorter. The Yankee insist that the dimensions are exactly the same.

"The wall structure is slightly different than the old park," AccuWeather said. "The main difference involves curvature. The gentle curve from right field to center field seen in original Yankee Stadium has largely been eliminated at the new stadium. This is due in large part to the presence of a manual scoreboard embedded within the wall. Losing this curvature has resulted in a right field that is shorter by four-to-five feet on average, but up to nine feet in spots.

"Not only is the famed short porch even shorter in the new stadium, but the walls themselves are not as tall. In the old ballpark, the walls in right field stood at a height of approximately 10 feet. At this height, it was difficult for outfielders to scale the wall and attempt to rob a home run over the fence. Fast forward to 2009, and the outfielders have been scaling the wall without any trouble. The result? The new outfield fences only rise to a height of eight feet, adding to the ease hitting a home run to right."

As Neyer points out, a few weeks ago Cashman said this:

"I don't have any answers about wind studies,” Cashman said. When I asked if he still believed the dimensions were the same as before, as some folks have disputed with visual evidence, Cashman said, "I've been told they're the same. I know they're supposed to be the same.”

Cashman's a smart guy, so he chose his words carefully. He knows the dimensions are not the same.

[Logan]

This isn't really news...locally at least. NY papers, sports talk radio, etc first started talking about the entire stadium not being the same size the day the "wind tunnel" idea was brought up.

[Ksyrup]

That was national, too, but that was just a bunch of people saying "the stadium seems smaller." Short of actually walking off the distances and doing a hands-on comparison, this is the first real study or analysis of the two stadiums which seems to confirm what people "felt."

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

First to worst in 5 1/2 weeks. Congrats, Royals. We, the loyal followers, knew you could do it.

[miked]

Welcome to that thing we've been talking about for a while now...sample size.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

That was national, too, but that was just a bunch of people saying "the stadium seems smaller." Short of actually walking off the distances and doing a hands-on comparison, this is the first real study or analysis of the two stadiums which seems to confirm what people "felt."

Not trying to get picky, but the different curvature of the wall was brought up too back then. That's something that can also be observed. But you're right, that isn't an actual analysis.

[MrDNA]

Phils-Mets was a good game (bad outcome, IMO ) but I can't believe the ump missed that play at the plate. Ruiz is a darn good catcher at blocking the plate, but he didn't do it that time.

[Ksyrup]

This is awesome...not because I like ARod or anything, but mainly because I think tabloid crap about sports figures is something I'd like to see less of, not more, and because the more reviews I read about this book and learned of Selena Roberts' knowledge of the game and the basis for her conclusions in this book, the more I realized this thing was a piece of crap. She not only had no real journalistic back-up for most of the "facts" she cited, but she mis-cited basic facts about baseball in general and had a pop psychologist's take on why ARod supposedly did the things she claimed he did. Getting the steroid scoop is one thing, but making up or trying to connect the dots on innuendo and third-hand information and passing it off as facts is another.

NEW YORK -- Remember that tell-all book about A-Rod?

Just a month after making headlines with its allegations that the New York Yankees star likely used steroids as far back as high school, Selena Roberts' "A-Rod: The Many Lives of Alex Rodriguez" has vanished from best seller lists.

Published in early May by HarperCollins with an announced first printing of 150,000, "A-Rod" has sold just 16,000 copies so far, according to Nielsen BookScan, which tracks about 75 percent of industry sales. The book sold 11,000 in its first week, then quickly faded.

At the Rizzoli Bookstore in midtown Manhattan, "A-Rod" has sold two copies. Twenty-seven copies have sold at Posman Books, based in Grand Central Terminal, but none in the past two weeks.

"I don't think he's ever been embraced by serious fans," Logan Fox, a manager at Posman, said Wednesday. "He's still considered an outsider."

"A-Rod" fell off The New York Times' hardcover list of nonfiction best sellers after three weeks, peaking at No. 9 in late May. As of Wednesday afternoon, the book ranked No. 2,904 on Amazon.com, where even James Frey's discredited memoir "A Million Little Pieces" -- at 1,776 -- is outselling it.

[Logan]

No one looks worse than the publisher.

[DaddyTorgo]

great win for the Sox last night. Beckett saddled up and looked as good as any pitcher in baseball this year (back to back with Lester's great outing it was quite nice), Ortiz managed to look somewhat like his old self, etc

[Crapshoot]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

This is awesome...not because I like ARod or anything, but mainly because I think tabloid crap about sports figures is something I'd like to see less of, not more, and because the more reviews I read about this book and learned of Selena Roberts' knowledge of the game and the basis for her conclusions in this book, the more I realized this thing was a piece of crap. She not only had no real journalistic back-up for most of the "facts" she cited, but she mis-cited basic facts about baseball in general and had a pop psychologist's take on why ARod supposedly did the things she claimed he did. Getting the steroid scoop is one thing, but making up or trying to connect the dots on innuendo and third-hand information and passing it off as facts is another.

I'm glad as well - plus Selena Roberts was one of the Duke scandal reports who refused to apologize. Would you believe - there's even trash the American public wouldn't buy.

[JPhillips]

I saw this on a Reds blog.

Nationals pitcher Shairon Martis is quite possibly the luckiest pitcher in MLB.

ERA = 5.31
BBs to Ks = 1-1
Team record = 15-41
Martis record = 5-1

[JonInMiddleGA]

Anybody got a couple of spare outfielders the Braves could borrow?

Top half of the order tonight through 8 innings: 5-14
Bottom half of the order (Anderson, Norton, Francouer, Johnson): 0-12

Which explains why they trail Pittsburgh 3-1.

And 3 of the Braves starting pitchers have a higher batting average than tonight's fill-in 1B Greg "I'm a waste of a roster spot" Norton.

[stevew]

Garrett Anderson just went yard

That has got to be worth noting

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by stevew

Garrett Anderson just went yard. That has got to be worth noting

That's absolutely notable, as it gets his average up to .190 for the month of June and is his first XBH in over a week. Any hit from him is notable, if only for it's rarity.

[stevew]

After leaving 6 on base I suppose I could lend you Brandon Moss.

[Jas_lov]

Doesn't make any sense to bring in your fastest runner and then give up an out bunting him over to 2nd with Melky Cabrera. Girardi was playing for the tie on the road and now Teixera doesn't get a chance to bat with a man on base. I complained about Girardi bunting too much earlier this year and I will keep doing it when he makes horrible decisions.

[BishopMVP]

So is Wang officially going to AAA now? 2.2 IP 6 H 3/3 BB/K 4ER. ERA up (down?) to 14.34.

Oh, and I agree with J-lov. Girardi and the Yankess is the worst possible fit.

[Jas_lov]

They can't move Wang down to AAA, he's out of options. His velocity and movement on his sinker were there, but his command was not. Basically, they brought him back too quick when he was throwing rehab starts earlier this year. His next start is against the Nationals which is good. They'll give him more time to get it together.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Jas_lov

They can't move Wang down to AAA, he's out of options. His velocity and movement on his sinker were there, but his command was not. Basically, they brought him back too quick when he was throwing rehab starts earlier this year. His next start is against the Nationals which is good. They'll give him more time to get it together.

I think Wang is toast.

[DeToxRox]

Verlander with another filthy start, this time a CG effort vs the White Sox. This guy has just flat out turned it on.

[Crapshoot]

Originally Posted by DeToxRox

Verlander with another filthy start, this time a CG effort vs the White Sox. This guy has just flat out turned it on.

Amazing stuff, can't always control it is my read of the guy; I always think he's a guy who if he cut 1 BB/9, becomes a Cy Young level pitcher.

[DeToxRox]

Originally Posted by Crapshoot

Amazing stuff, can't always control it is my read of the guy; I always think he's a guy who if he cut 1 BB/9, becomes a Cy Young level pitcher.

Yep. He struggled early and said he mentally wasn't ready and he needed to fix that so now on game days he doesn't talk to anyone and just sits with his headphones on and ignores everyone. Since then he has just been dealing, but as amazing as the stretch he is on now is, he needs to do it all year and be a legit ace before I feel comfortable annointing him as such.

[DeToxRox]

Dola, just saw this:

Verlander, since April 27th, is 7-0 with a 1.10 ERA. Unreal.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Jas_lov

They can't move Wang down to AAA, he's out of options. His velocity and movement on his sinker were there, but his command was not. Basically, they brought him back too quick when he was throwing rehab starts earlier this year. His next start is against the Nationals which is good. They'll give him more time to get it together.

Eh, I guess the salary is only $5m and he's still under club control for 2? more years, so he likely wouldn't clear waivers. They at least have to consider moving him back to the bullpen, unless they think piggybacking Hughes like this works well for either.

Plus, somehow the Yankees are still only 1GB, despite being 0-7 vs. Boston and in the toughest division in baseball (4 of the top 5 teams by Pythagorean wins).

[Jas_lov]

There's no way the Yankees release Wang. I think he gets at least one more start vs. the Nationals next week and if he struggles there I think they put him into the bullpen. Nothing else they can really do with him at this point.

No need to panic yet, as you say the Yanks are only 1 game out of first with the pitching matchup skewed in their favor tomorrow. Terrible record vs. Boston, but before this series they hadn't lost 2 straight since A-Rod came back 5 weeks ago. It's going to be a great race in that division all year.

[Ksyrup]

They'll switch him and Hughes if he can't get it together. Of course, after one bullpen appearance, everyone was raving about Hughes, so now that's the new discussion point - should Hughes take over the spot everyone wants Joba to have? If he's not going to pitch, sure; if he's going to replace Wang in the rotation and start regularly, no.