2009 MLB Regular Season Thread

[stevew]

Interesting battle between current and previous Pirate CFers. McCutchen 3-4 with 2 triples. Mclouth 3-4 with a homer.

[samifan24]

Originally Posted by stevew

Interesting battle between current and previous Pirate CFers. McCutchen 3-4 with 2 triples. Mclouth 3-4 with a homer.

McCutchen had four hits tonight (albeit in an extra inning game). Yup, I'd say he's ready for the majors.

[stevew]

Game is now in the 13th.

[sterlingice]

Onto the 14th now

SI

[stevew]

Sigh

Well it looks like the newly acquired Charlie Morton goes in weds game

That triple was a thing of beauty. McCutch can fly.

[samifan24]

Originally Posted by stevew

Sigh

Well it looks like the newly acquired Charlie Morton goes in weds game

That triple was a thing of beauty. McCutch can fly.

The Baseball Tonight guys clocked him at something like 10.4 seconds from home to third. On his second triple they said McCutchen had to slow down so he wouldn't pass Eric Hinske on the basepaths.

[INDalltheway]

Originally Posted by stevew

Sigh

Well it looks like the newly acquired Charlie Morton goes in weds game

That triple was a thing of beauty. McCutch can fly.

Saw him play in Triple-A Indianapolis a lot. Very exciting player. Kind of upset he got called up to be honest!

[stevew]

You should get Brad Lincoln soon to AAA. Righty is tearing up AA with a ERA near 2.

But I was thinking if I still lived in Norfolk I'd be pissed to see weiters and reimold both leave the tides.

[Ksyrup]

Johnny Damon's HR last night was a joke. He popped up to RF and immediately reacted with a disgusted look on his face and tossed the bat, and then about 5 seconds later realized he could trot around the bases. He was yukking it up in the dugout afterwards, like he knew he hita short pop to RF in every other major and minor league park in the country. Except Yankee Stadium.

[Fighter of Foo]

The new stadium is going to help send Johnny Damon to the HOF.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Fighter of Foo

The new stadium is going to help send Johnny Damon to the HOF.

He'd better need a lot more than a new stadium to get to the HOF. He's not even close right now or at least shouldn't be by the numbers.

SI

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

He's not even close right now or at least shouldn't be by the numbers.

I have to think that HOF comment was hyperbole. Kind of hard to imagine him making the Hall when his most comparable pairing is Cesar Cedeno.

The new stadium will help keep him viable longer than he would have been otherwise as he ages but that's about it I think.

[Ksyrup]

He's a FA after this year but is dying to stay, I'm sure. Given the Yanks' treatment of Abreu last year, I'm sure Damon doesn't have high hopes for sticking around. But maybe they'd consider him on a 1-year deal. For such a stacked team, the Yanks' OF is pretty sparse. If they don't sign Holliday in the off-season (or trade for him this year), they might need Damon next year. Otherwise, I guess they could start 2010 with Swisher, Cabrera (assuming he continues hitting like he has), and Austin Jackson.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

I would be shocked if that were the Yanks OF next year. There are going to be free agents, and the Yankees will have money to spend.

[Ksyrup]

Cashman's smart, and Austin Jackson's tearing up AAA right now. So I think he'll at leasat be on the club next year, if not handed a starting job. The other 2 will be on the team, barring a trade.

Here's the list of OF/DH FAs for 2010. Not a pretty list:

Left fielders
Garret Anderson (38)
Marlon Anderson (36)
Jason Bay (31)
Emil Brown (35)
Carl Crawford (28) - $10MM club option with a $1.25MM buyout
Johnny Damon (36)
David Dellucci (36)
Cliff Floyd (37)
Matt Holliday (30)
Jacque Jones (35)
Gabe Kapler (34)
Greg Norton (37)
Wily Mo Pena (28)
Manny Ramirez (38) - $20MM player option
Dave Roberts (38)
Fernando Tatis (35)
Center fielders
Rick Ankiel (30)
Rocco Baldelli (28)
Marlon Byrd (32)
Mike Cameron (37)
Endy Chavez (32)
Coco Crisp (30) - $8MM club option with a $500K buyout
Darin Erstad (36)
Ryan Freel (34)
Jerry Hairston Jr. (34)
Reed Johnson (33)
Andruw Jones (33)
Gabe Kapler (34)
Mark Kotsay (34)
Corey Patterson (30)
Scott Podsednik (34)
Right fielders
Bobby Abreu (36)
Jermaine Dye (36) - $12MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout
Brian Giles (39)
Vladimir Guerrero (34)
Eric Hinske (32)
Geoff Jenkins (35) - $7.5MM mutual option with a $1.25MM buyout
Gabe Kapler (34)
Austin Kearns (30) - $10MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Jason Michaels (34)
Xavier Nady (31)
Magglio Ordonez (36) - $15MM club/vesting option with a $3MM buyout
Randy Winn (36)
Designated hitters
Hank Blalock (29)
Jason Giambi (39) - $6.5MM club option with a $1.25MM buyout
Ken Griffey Jr. (40)
Aubrey Huff (33)
Hideki Matsui (36)
Gary Sheffield (41)
Matt Stairs (42)
Mike Sweeney (36)
Jim Thome (39)



Who do you go for on this list? Crawford is going to get extended, so he probably shouldn't even be on the list. Bay, Holliday, and Ankiel are probably the only guys who might be worth more than a 2-year contract. And you have to assume the Red Sox will do everything in their power to keep Bay, particularly if the Yanks are out there looking for OF help. So that leaves Holliday/Ankiel. Frankly, if the Yanks want to go after any of the others, then that will make me, as a Yankee Hater, very happy (although a few of them might give decent value on a 1-year deal, but that's not how the Yanks usually operate).

[Fighter of Foo]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

He'd better need a lot more than a new stadium to get to the HOF. He's not even close right now or at least shouldn't be by the numbers.

SI

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

I have to think that HOF comment was hyperbole. Kind of hard to imagine him making the Hall when his most comparable pairing is Cesar Cedeno.

The new stadium will help keep him viable longer than he would have been otherwise as he ages but that's about it I think.

He's 35 and has 2,300+ hits already. 3,000 hits gets you a ticket. It's not an exaggeration at all.

The new stadium suits him perfectly. Why wouldn't the Yanks keep Damon around if he's hitting well and why would he leave?

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

I would assume either Holliday or Bay will be playing LF for the Yankees next year. Bay resigning with Boston is far from a sure thing.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Fighter of Foo

He's 35 and has 2,300+ hits already. 3,000 hits gets you a ticket. It's not an exaggeration at all.

Because he's already 35 and I don't see him having 3 more 200 hit seasons, not even in that park. I figure he ends up in the 2800-2900 range and misses the Hall easily.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs2

I would assume either Holliday or Bay will be playing LF for the Yankees next year. Bay resigning with Boston is far from a sure thing.

Yeah, it is. His great start this year coupled with their need to replace both him and Ortiz if he were to leave makes his re-signing a must. Unless they finally decide to part with some of their pitching and pick up a couple of long-term options (like trying to get Hanley Ramirez back from the Marlins).

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Yeah, it is. His great start this year coupled with their need to replace both him and Ortiz if he were to leave makes his re-signing a must. Unless they finally decide to part with some of their pitching and pick up a couple of long-term options (like trying to get Hanley Ramirez back from the Marlins).

Well, considering that no one knows what Bay's market looks like, it is not a lock. No one here in Boston considers it a lock. Despite the resources Boston has, they do not go above what they consider "good value": just look at Teixeira (and Damon, and Pedro...). How much is Bay worth? 13m? 17m? What will the market look like this winter?

How much time would they have to resign him anyway? I would assume after the All-Star Break Bay would not be interested in discussing an extension.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by Fighter of Foo

He's 35 and has 2,300+ hits already. 3,000 hits gets you a ticket. It's not an exaggeration at all.

The new stadium suits him perfectly. Why wouldn't the Yanks keep Damon around if he's hitting well and why would he leave?

Because he's now just an average fielder with one of the worst arms in baseball, and doesn't give you corner OF production.

[samifan24]

Originally Posted by Fighter of Foo

He's 35 and has 2,300+ hits already. 3,000 hits gets you a ticket. It's not an exaggeration at all.

There is absolutely no chance Johnny Damon gets into the Hall of Fame. None.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs2

Well, considering that no one knows what Bay's market looks like, it is not a lock. No one here in Boston considers it a lock. Despite the resources Boston has, they do not go above what they consider "good value": just look at Teixeira (and Damon, and Pedro...). How much is Bay worth? 13m? 17m? What will the market look like this winter?

How much time would they have to resign him anyway? I would assume after the All-Star Break Bay would not be interested in discussing an extension.

Unfortunately for Boston, they overpaid JD Drew, so his contract is the starting point for Bay. I have a hard time believing they'd let him go to NY, given their situation right now. Tex was a different scenario - from what I've read, there was some gamesmanship going on there, to the extent that he may have been using the Sox to get the Yanks involved and only would have signed with the Red Sox if the Yanks didn't follow through.

He may make unreasonable demands that they just don't want to meet (or can't agree on a compromise), but they'll need an OF, a DH, and a SS (and probably a 3B, too) in the off-season, and that's a lot of positions to fill when the FA market is crappy and you don't want to trade any of your pitching.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by samifan24

There is absolutely no chance Johnny Damon gets into the Hall of Fame. None.

If he somehow got 3K hits, he would be the test case that some thought Harold Baines would be if he had gotten there. Does 3K hits automatically mean HoF? Possibly.

[Fighter of Foo]

Originally Posted by Logan

Because he's now just an average fielder with one of the worst arms in baseball, and doesn't give you corner OF production.

Two words: designated hitter. Also check out his home stats this year. If he can end up with 80% of that, it's plenty good enough for a corner.

Originally Posted by samifan24

There is absolutely no chance Johnny Damon gets into the Hall of Fame. None.

I'd happily take that bet. Glad to know you're open minded about it.

[Ksyrup]

Whether Johnny Damon is a HoFer or will make the HoF are 2 different issues. Even with 4 more consistent seasons, 3K hits, etc., there's no way I'd consider him a HoFer. Doesn't mean he won't make it.

Personally, I wouldn't vote for him if he got to 4K hits just because he throws so horribly it would be an insult to baseball players everywhere to put him in the HoF. I've heard people say he throws like a girl, but having coached 9-10 year old softball, I'd say that's an insult to girls. My daughter's got a better throwing motion than Damon, and probably just as strong an arm, too.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by Fighter of Foo

Two words: designated hitter.

Two words: Ha ha.

I'd say there's about a 5% chance they bring him back. And about a 0% chance that they bring him back just so they can DH him.

Feel free to bump this post during the winter.

[Fighter of Foo]

OK...Matsui's contract expires this year too. He's got to be less likely to return than Damon, no?

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

There is zero chance Matsui returns, and a nonzero but still small chance Damon returns IMO.

[Logan]

Yeah they're done with him too.

[Jas_lov]

Matsui won't be back. Have you seen him try to run lately? His knees are not in good shape and he's not contributing much at DH of late.

Damon is making a good case to stay, offensively anyway. I do think they want to move another one of their defensive liabilities, Jorge Posada, to DH most of the time. With Austin Jackson waiting in the wings, that would mean Damon is out. Nady is a FA and he won't be back with the Yankees next year. It'll definitely be interesting to see what they do with Damon and Jackson next year, but I think they go with Jackson.

[samifan24]

Originally Posted by Fighter of Foo

I'd happily take that bet. Glad to know you're open minded about it.

I just don't see how Damon is considered a Hall of Famer by any measure. For the record, Baseball Reference rates him as good player but not Hall of Fame worthy. You can read more about the methodology behind the equations on Baseball Reference.

Black Ink Batting - 9 (250), Average HOFer ≈ 27
Gray Ink Batting - 76 (312), Average HOFer ≈ 144
Hall of Fame Monitor Batting - 74 (242), Likely HOFer ≈ 100
Hall of Fame Standards Batting - 36 (182), Average HOFer ≈ 50


Here's the link to the definitions of each term.

[Fighter of Foo]

I looked at that when I was getting his total hits number this morning.

3,000 hits = In the HOF. Damon has less than 700 to go. That's literally the whole argument. All the stuff you cite simply says he'd be below average compared to others in the hall which is indisputably true.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Over the last three seasons, he's averaged 181 hits/yr. So, it all comes down to whether he can play 3.75 seasons at that pace. It's not out of the question, he's always had good health. I still don't think the Yankees resign him, though.

[Logan]

I don't think he's a full time player next season on any contending team. It will come down to whether or not he's willing to get his at bats in relative obscurity for that sort of shot. And to ask him to do that for that many more years, sorry just don't see it.

[DanGarion]

Going to play devils advocate a little here.

Johnny Damon and Craig Biggio are pretty close comparably when it comes to their offensive stats. Now I realize defensively there is a major difference, but offensively, Damon is going to be very close to what Biggio put up, in about 4 years...

Also looking at Robin Yount... pretty close comparison offensively. Not that Damon has ever won 1, let alone 2 MVP awards.

[tarcone]

Im going to stray from the Yankee talk.

Cardinal fans are getting testy about the lack of production of the lineup. Duncan and Ankiel need to go for a 3rd baseman or an OFer with RHed power.

And back to Yankee talk. You dont want Ankiel. He is a #4 OFer.

[Ksyrup]

Biggio is one of the best defensive/offensive second basemen in history. He is a HoFer regardless of 3K hits.

He's kinda like the opposite of Damon, in a sense - if Biggio hadn't hung on just to get to 3,000 hits, and hadn't piled up several shitty years at the end of his career, he still would/should have been a no-doubt HoFer. Damon, OTOH, could have 4 more solid 175 hit seasons and should not be in a legit discussion about the HoF.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by tarcone

And back to Yankee talk. You dont want Ankiel. He is a #4 OFer.

I want them to have him then. And to pay him a lot of money.

[Logan]

Forget about the 3000 hit mark for a second. Go through Damon's year by year numbers and see how many can be considered HoF worthy. I think that's the criteria we'll start to see used more as we get more compilers eligible.

[DanGarion]

Anyone have the list of the factors to consider for HoF that I'd posted here once (can't find it). It pertains to things like was the player consider the best at their position while they were playing, best in all of baseball, etc. It's a list of like 12 or 15 things.

[DanGarion]

Found it.
Care of Bill James...

The questions are:

1. Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball? Did anybody, while he was active, ever suggest that he was the best player in baseball?

2. Was he the best player on his team?

3. Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position?

4. Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?

5. Was he good enough that he could play regularly after passing his prime?

6. Is he the very best baseball player in history who is not in the Hall of Fame?

7. Are most players who have comparable statistics in the Hall of Fame?

8. Do the player's numbers meet Hall of Fame standards?

9. Is there any evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics?

10. Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame?

11. How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close?

12. How many All-Star-type seasons did he have? How many All-Star games did he play in? Did most of the players who played in this many All-Star games go into the Hall of Fame?

13. If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant?

14. What impact did the player have on baseball history? Was he responsible for any rule changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change the game in any way?

15. Did the player uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider?

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by Logan

Forget about the 3000 hit mark for a second. Go through Damon's year by year numbers and see how many can be considered HoF worthy. I think that's the criteria we'll start to see used more as we get more compilers eligible.

I don't know what's considered "HoF worthy," but the dude's got a 104 career OPS+ and never had an individual season above 118, until this year (141!). If he somehow keeps that pace up and either leaves or the Yanks change teh RF dimensions and his numbers drop off, then I think we can attribute 2009 to the stadium effects.

Either way, he's had a nice career, but he's barely above replacement level according to OPS+ - and that doesn't figure in his defense which has been below-average for several years.

[Ksyrup]

Lidge to the DL. As a Phillies fan, I'm happy to see this, TBH.

[Fighter of Foo]

Originally Posted by Logan

Forget about the 3000 hit mark for a second. Go through Damon's year by year numbers and see how many can be considered HoF worthy. I think that's the criteria we'll start to see used more as we get more compilers eligible.

I'm not a Damon fan nor do I give a shit about the HOF.

1) There's not going to be a smattering of guys with 3,000 hits any time soon.
2) If Damon gets 3,000 hits, he'll probably get in.

All this other stuff you guys are spouting won't matter even though it's all correct and accurate. Apologies for the honesty.

[Dr. Sak]

Brad Lidge was placed on the 15 day DL.
Phillies Place Lidge on Disabled List

[stevew]

If Damon limps to 3k hits, like Biggio did, he should be in the HOF.

Both belong in the Hall of Played a Long Time.

[MikeVic]

Originally Posted by stevew

If Damon limps to 3k hits, like Biggio did, he should be in the HOF.

Both belong in the Hall of Played a Long Time.

Like Julio Franco.

[Hammer755]

Originally Posted by DanGarion

Going to play devils advocate a little here.

Johnny Damon and Craig Biggio are pretty close comparably when it comes to their offensive stats. Now I realize defensively there is a major difference, but offensively, Damon is going to be very close to what Biggio put up, in about 4 years...

Also looking at Robin Yount... pretty close comparison offensively. Not that Damon has ever won 1, let alone 2 MVP awards.

I'm stunned that Damon's numbers are across the board so similar to Biggio's. Park effects play a huge role in that - Damon's played in extreme offensive environments for virtually his entire career, while Biggio spent nearly 7500 PA of his prime hitting in the Astrodome. Unfortunately this concept will almost certainly go right over the voters' heads.

Biggio is obviously a lock, though I was disappointed he hung around several seasons too long just to get 3,000. Damon will be an interesting case since he will have a pretty weak argument other than 3,000 (assuming he gets there of course).

[Hammer755]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

I don't know what's considered "HoF worthy," but the dude's got a 104 career OPS+ and never had an individual season above 118, until this year (141!). If he somehow keeps that pace up and either leaves or the Yanks change teh RF dimensions and his numbers drop off, then I think we can attribute 2009 to the stadium effects.

Either way, he's had a nice career, but he's barely above replacement level according to OPS+ - and that doesn't figure in his defense which has been below-average for several years.

Dola

I'm with you on the OPS+ argument (104 is almost immediate grounds for dismissal), but it also doesn't account for speed. 400 SB at an 80% success rate is pretty valuable. But not enough to make up for the pedestrian batting & fielding IMO.