NFL 2021 Regular Season Thread

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by cuervo72

Never understood why coaches still mess this up.

[Solecismic]

There's an excellent example of how knowing the numbers may not be knowing everything you need to know about the game. On its surface, with extra points at 93% and two-point conversions at 51%, you'd think teams should never kick.

But in practice, teams have a couple of plays they use for conversions. If they tried all the time, then that would be a big part of preparation against them and they'd need to come up with new plays. If that factor drops the real conversion rate to 45%, no longer a good strategy. It also gets you into that "the secret to Vegas is to double your bet every time you lose a bet" thinking.

Maybe with Huntley killing the Packers with the run in the fourth quarter made Harbaugh think they were unprepared for the conversion play he wanted. So maybe it was a good decision even if it failed. But if they had started out that way, what was left?

Hard to Bridgewater get hurt again. At some point, you think he's gone through enough for an entire career.

[RainMaker]

I think going for 2 was the right call. There was a receiver open in the back of the end zone he missed. The issue is he should have gone for 2 when they cut it to 8.

[Jas_lov]

Harbaugh has lost them two games with that strategy. You'd think he'd learn his lesson. I can understand today going against Rodgers but why the Pitt game when Pitt is pathetic on offense? Has to be demoralizing to lose that way every game. Not to mention he went for it on 4th and 5 on his own 30 yard line with 11 minutes left in the game down 11. His defense gave him a chance to come back and he didn't believe in them in OT.

[RainMaker]

Colinsworth's son sounds exactly like his Dad. It's really eery.

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I think going for 2 was the right call. There was a receiver open in the back of the end zone he missed. The issue is he should have gone for 2 when they cut it to 8.

I haven't seen that argument before. It all comes down to your confidence in the 2-point play. Going into the game Baltimore was 2-for-7 converting, and Tucker has missed four extra points in his career (none this year).

That's a lot to put on a 23-year old undrafted quarterback making his second career start. But maybe they have something there. He certainly played well when it counted today. The field gets so crowded for passing, though, when you're inside the five.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

I haven't seen that argument before. It all comes down to your confidence in the 2-point play. Going into the game Baltimore was 2-for-7 converting, and Tucker has missed four extra points in his career (none this year).

That's a lot to put on a 23-year old undrafted quarterback making his second career start. But maybe they have something there. He certainly played well when it counted today. The field gets so crowded for passing, though, when you're inside the five.

If your goal is to play for the win, going for 2 on the first TD gives you another chance if you fail on the conversion. If you go for 2 on the second TD, you lose that 2nd chance. It's a 12.5% win probability difference by just going for 2 earlier.

[INDalltheway]

My issue was the play call. You put Andrews out wide when he has been dominating the middle of the field all game. Then you roll out your scrambling QB (not bad on the surface) and expect him to be able to make a pinpoint accurate throw on a very obvious route.

He was killing them when he was standing in the pocket and letting outside contain make a mistake or a running lane opening in the middle. I did like the way they used the timeout initially trying to get it down to the 1.

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

If your goal is to play for the win, going for 2 on the first TD gives you another chance if you fail on the conversion. If you go for 2 on the second TD, you lose that 2nd chance. It's a 12.5% win probability difference by just going for 2 earlier.

It's an interesting thought when you're in a position where you have to gamble that your defense can make a quick stop anyway. Limited to the approximate time left in the game, I see the potential benefit.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by INDalltheway

My issue was the play call. You put Andrews out wide when he has been dominating the middle of the field all game. Then you roll out your scrambling QB (not bad on the surface) and expect him to be able to make a pinpoint accurate throw on a very obvious route.

He was killing them when he was standing in the pocket and letting outside contain make a mistake or a running lane opening in the middle. I did like the way they used the timeout initially trying to get it down to the 1.

The safety bit on Andrews and a receiver was wide open in the back of the end zone on a trailing route. Huntley never looked off Andrews.

[RainMaker]

For what it's worth, I don't think Huntley looks that bad for a 23 year old. With an incredibly weak QB class in next years draft, he'd be someone I'd look at if I was looking for a young QB. Beats running Andy Dalton or some other re-tread out there.

[INDalltheway]

I don’t think he moved off of the primary receiver all night It was primary target, then open running lane. That’s no knock on Huntley at all as he was dynamic and flashed brilliance and poise.

[NobodyHere]

I know I'm the only one but I'm boycotting the night's game because it features the serial cheater Tom Brady

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

It also gets you into that "the secret to Vegas is to double your bet every time you lose a bet" thinking.

I loved that thread.

[QuikSand]

oh yessssss

[QuikSand]

Had a fun confluence of things today... played the (absolutely dreadful) DFS main slate as usual, and put in a GPP lineup specifically designed to keep things interesting while I was at the Packers/Ravens game in person.

As the game wound down, my Huntley/Andrews stack with MVS brinbgback was doing well, and I was in striking range of a nice hit. Then the other games wrapped, ans the Ravens game was the last one live on the slate... much easier to watch what was happening. 14th...11th...6th...4th...3rd...2nd... and knowing that the guy in 1st had Andrews but not Huntley, the final Huntley rushing TD pushed me into 1st, and oddly enough the decision to go for it at the end secured my top slot. Not a huge hit, it wasn't a monster contest, but good enough to clink a glass over.

(I had to contain my enthusiasm when MVS scored, as I was surrounded by hosts who wouldn't have taken kindly to any sort of rooting for the visitors)

Fun times. I somehow feel like I have a sunburned face, and will have to reckon with that tomorrow. But for now, it's all good.

[Solecismic]

The way Payton (I guess he isn't there tonight, but it's still his team) always plays Brady, I'm surprised he isn't arrested for elder abuse.

[molson]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

I loved that thread.

Please stop causing problems.

[sabotai]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

I haven't seen that argument before. It all comes down to your confidence in the 2-point play. Going into the game Baltimore was 2-for-7 converting, and Tucker has missed four extra points in his career (none this year).

Right, the math for the argument does assume a 50% chance to convert the 2 point conversion and 100% to make the XP. The leagues averages are pretty close to that.

If you think you have a significantly less than 50% chance to convert the 2 point, then kick the XP both times and play for OT (which you'd assume is 50% chance to win), but it would have to be pretty far below 50% to make sense according to the odds.


The real "mindfuck" situation that the analytics argue for but we'll probably never actually see is what to do when down by 10 and you score a TD to bring it within 4. The analytics say to go for 2 to make it a 2 point game instead of the XP to make it 3.

[sabotai]

Here's an article on FiveThirtyEight that expresses the idea is different terms: a change in your chance to win the game.

When To Go For 2, For Real | FiveThirtyEight

The second chart down the page titled "How to decided when to go for 2"

Here's what it says about the -8 and -4 margins after TD.

If you’re down 8 points after scoring a touchdown (with 10 minutes left), you should go for 2, because the difference between being down 7 points (if you make the extra point) and being down 6 points (if you convert the 2) is greater than the difference between being down 7 points and being down 8 points (if you miss the 2-point conversion). Note that this is backed up by the numbers but should also be apparent intuitively.

If you’re down 4 points after scoring a touchdown (with 10 minutes left), you should go for 2, because being down 2 points instead of 3 helps you more than being down 4 points instead of 3 hurts you. This one is a bit more counterintuitive, but if you think ahead, the second point means a future field goal could win the game (and if you don’t convert, you just have to adjust to go for winning touchdowns instead of tying field goals).

[SirFozzie]

First time in 15 years Brady has been shut out.

[MIJB#19]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

With my team out of realistic contention, I have found myself leaning into other ways to enjoy this season. Listening to podcasts break down in meticulous detail just how bad Urban was at coaching an NFL team has been pretty fun.

Impressive way to jinx the Saints!
Providing the Saints still are your team.

[Thomkal]

Thanks Saints

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

oh yessssss

You still better sticking to something else?

SI

[MIJB#19]

Playoffs Scenarios for week 16

Kansas
win + LA Chargers loss/tie -> division champion
win + LA Chargers win + Cleveland loss/tie in week 15 -> playoffs
win + LA Chargers win + Cleveland win in week 15 + at least 1 of 4 from: Indianapolis loss/tie, Buffalo loss/tie, Cleveland loss/tie in week 16, Baltimore loss -> playoffs
tie + LA Chargers loss -> division champions
tie + LA Chargers win/tie + at least 2 of 5 from: Cleveland loss in week 15, Indianapolis loss, Buffalo loss, Baltimore loss vs Cincinnati, Cincinnati loss vs Baltimore + Cleveland loss in week 16 -> playoffs
LA Chargers can still get tie-breakers on conference record.

New England
win + Miami loss/tie -> division champion
win + Miami win + crapload of stuff ^1 -> playoffs
New England would secure tie-breakers over Buffalo (by beating them in week 16) and also in the 3-way with Miami, but not yet in a 2-way vs Miami, which makes the Miami loss/tie a requirement to secure the division.
^1 In principle New England needs of the other 12 AFC teams in the race to see 6 of them to fall too far behind, which applies to Cincinnati with a loss, LA Chargers with a loss, Buffalo with a loss, Baltimore with a loss, Cleveland with any loss, Pittsburgh with a loss/tie, Denver with a loss/tie and Las Vegas with any loss/tie. That sounds like any 6 of these 8 should work, but if all four AFC North teams (CIN, BAL, CLE and PIT) do as mentioned, they count as 3 teams as the division champion will still get preference over New England.

Tennessee
win + crapload of stuff ^2 -> playoffs not yet secured
If Tennessee wins in week 16 and Indianapolis loses in week 16, Indianapolis will still be able to get common games tie-breaker over Tennessee.
^2 In principle Tennesse needs of the other 12 AFC teams in the race to see 6 of them to fall too far behind, which applies to Baltimore with a loss, Cleveland with any loss, Pittsburgh with a loss, Miami with a loss, Denver with a loss/tie and Las Vegas with any loss/tie, which sounds like enough, but Baltimore or Cleveland could still end up as a 10-7 division champion and drop a 10-7 Cincinnati to second place and ahead of Tennessee in the wild card race.

Green Bay
division champion
cannot clinch a the #1 seed in week 16, because Dallas will have conference record tie-breaker if they catch up with Green Bay.

Tampa Bay
win/tie -> division champion
loss + New Orleans loss/tie -> division champion
loss + New Orleans win + San Francisco loss/tie -> playoffs
New Orleans will have head-to-head tie-breakers over Tampa Bay.

Dallas
Washington loss/tie in week 15 -> division champion
win/tie -> division champion
loss + San Francisco loss -> playoffs
loss + New Orleans loss/tie or Tampa Bay win/tie -> playoffs
Washington can still get tie-breakers with a win over Dallas in week 16, but Philadelphia's chances to get tie-breakers fell with the loss of Denver for Philadelphia to fall too far behind in the strength of schedule tie-breaker.

Arizona
win + LA Rams loss in week 15 + LA Rams loss -> division champion
win + LA Rams not losing in week 15 or 16 -> playoffs
tie + San Francisco loss/tie -> playoffs
loss + some more stuff ^3 -> playoffs
Arizona can lose tie-breakers to LA Rams if Arizona beats Dallas in week 17 and loses to Seattle in week 18 and LA Rams loses to Baltimore in week 16, LA Rams beats Seattle in week 15 and LA Rams beats San Francisco in week 18. That would be impossible in the specific division clinch scenario.
Arizona does have division record tie-beakers over San Francisco.
^3 To clinch the playoffs despite a loss in week 16, Arizona needs to see 3 from 5 wild card hopefuls to fall behind, which applies to San Francisco with a loss, New Orleans with a loss or tie or a Tampa Bay win or tie (to eliminate New Orleans from surpassing Arizona as division champion), Washington with any loss/tie, Philadelphia with any loss/tie, Minnesota with any loss/tie. The Washington or Philadelphia falling behind will happen by default as they still play hesd-to-head twice.

LA Rams
win in week 15 + win/tie in week 16 -> playoffs
win in week 15 + loss in week 16 + 2 of 3 from: New Orleans loss/tie + Minnesota loss/tie in either week 15 or week 16 + Washington and Philadelphia will both be 7-7-1 at best after week 16 -> playoffs
tie in week 15 + win in week 16 -> playoffs
tie in week 15 + tie in week 16 + 2 of 3 from: New Orleans loss/tie + Minnesota loss/tie in either week 15 or week 16 + Washington and Philadelphia will both be 7-7-1 at best after week 16 -> playoffs
loss in week 15 + win in week 16 + 2 of 3 from: New Orleans loss/tie + Minnesota loss/tie in either week 15 or week 16 + Washington and Philadelphia will both be 7-7-1 at best after week 16 -> playoffs
San Francisco can still get head-to-head tie-breaker over LA Rams in week 18.
Arizona can lose tie-breakers to LA Rams if Arizona beats Dallas in week 17 and loses to Seattle in week 18 and LA Rams loses to Baltimore in week 16, LA Rams beats Seattle in week 15 and LA Rams beats San Francisco in week 18.

San Francisco
win + Washington-Philadelphia tie in week 15 + some other stuff ^4 -> playoffs
[i]To get there, San Francisco needs Minnesota to drop to 6-8-1 or worse after week 16 and both Washington and Philadelphia to be 6-8-1 or worse after week 16 (which requires a Washington-Philadelphia tie in week 15).

[albionmoonlight]

Ceedy Duce. on Twitter: "Hey @Microsoft @surface , can y’all send me a new Surface Tablet? I need to give it to a friend who broke his. Thank you and Merry Christmas 😇"

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

First time in 15 years Brady has been shut out.

That's crazy. What a bizarre game that was.

This year sure feels like it's wide open in both conferences. No real dominant team and I feel like some of the wild cards have legit shots at pulling off upsets.

[Swaggs]

This feels like a riddle. Chase Claypool had 15 yards receiving on 0 receptions this week. How?

Chase Claypools YPC from Week 15 may break the NFL’s computer - Behind the Steel Curtain

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

This feels like a riddle. Chase Claypool had 15 yards receiving on 0 receptions this week. How?

Chase Claypools YPC from Week 15 may break the NFL’s computer - Behind the Steel Curtain

One of my least favorite plays to try to deal with when keeping stats in real-time, almost always needed to watch film to sort out who got what where.

[MIJB#19]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

This feels like a riddle. Chase Claypool had 15 yards receiving on 0 receptions this week. How?

Chase Claypools YPC from Week 15 may break the NFL’s computer - Behind the Steel Curtain

Deflected interception?

[MIJB#19]

Originally Posted by MIJB#19

Deflected interception?

D'oh.
Yeah, my second guess before seeing the answer made a lot more sense.

[Solecismic]

It's good to know the COVID absences aren't affecting the punting game. I'm sure Browns fans will be relieved.

[Coffee Warlord]

Every week Cole Kmet's hands look worse and worse. Guy just can't catch.

[JPhillips]

13 AFC teams at 500 or better.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

To be fair, the Panthers lost their kicker in pregame warmups, so Panthers pretty much had to go for it on every 4th down.

I know this discussion has been had before but who decided that punters should no longer be capable of kicking field goals and kickers should not be able to punt? Growing up, you had a number of guys who handle both kicking duties for teams. I understand not giving all the kicking responsibilities to one player permanently in 2021. I don't think one guy should be the best punter a team can find and the best place kicker. But in a pinch? It seems silly that a team would be auditioning tight ends and wide receivers when there is a guy on the team who kicks the ball one way and probably has actually kick the other way at some point in the past.

[Coffee Warlord]

This is just depressing.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

I know this discussion has been had before but who decided that punters should no longer be capable of kicking field goals and kickers should not be able to punt? Growing up, you had a number of guys who handle both kicking duties for teams. I understand not giving all the kicking responsibilities to one player permanently in 2021. I don't think one guy should be the best punter a team can find and the best place kicker. But in a pinch? It seems silly that a team would be auditioning tight ends and wide receivers when there is a guy on the team who kicks the ball one way and probably has actually kick the other way at some point in the past.

I agree with you on this, but Panthers were in a unique situation. Their punter is Australian and played in Australian Rules Football before joining the NFL, and they don't kick field goals there.

[jbergey22]

I feel like the Vikings wanted to give that game away but the refs were like their tag team partner and wouldn't allow it and the Bears offense is just awful. Not an exciting game to watch. Not impressive from any angle.

Fields just isnt ready. He looks overwhelmed and his slow reads arent allowing him to use his great athleticsm. He needed this year to watch and learn.

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

I agree with you on this, but Panthers were in a unique situation. Their punter is Australian and played in Australian Rules Football before joining the NFL, and they don't kick field goals there.

He should still have the leg that makes it ridiculous to be trying out guys who have never kicked in their life. Plus if he’s Aussie there’s zero chance he didn’t grow up playing some rugby… yeah kicking a football is different but it’s in the same ballpark. And if teams aren’t doing some cross training at those positions for some reason that also seems dumb… there’s only so many hours you can do punting drills. Just a weird situation all round.

[Ksyrup]

More football does not equate to good or entertaining football. Geez that was waste of a MNF DH.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

More football does not equate to good or entertaining football. Geez that was waste of a MNF DH.

I don't get why they keep putting the Bears on prime time games.

[sterlingice]

I blame mini Ditka

SI

[thesloppy]

Wait, these games have started already??

I was decidedly not ready for some football, a Tuesday night party.

[Ksyrup]

Either are the teams. This could have been part of a MNF tripleheader.

[Solecismic]

I know the answer, $. The question is why the NFL allows this mockery of a game when there are rather large playoff implications. Therefore, we have 21 players out for one team and a starting quarterback who has spent the season on another team's practice squad.

[bhlloy]

Refs started drinking early tonight. Again.

[thesloppy]

Originally Posted by thesloppy

Wait, these games have started already??

I was decidedly not ready for some football, a Tuesday night party.

I wish I had never realized these games were on.

[JPhillips]

Weird that the Eagles finish the season with four consecutive division games.

[MIJB#19]

Playoffs scenarios for week 16

	AFC				NFC
1	Kansas	10-4		1	Green Bay	11-3
2	New England	9-5		2	Tampa Bay	10-4
3	Tennessee	9-5		3	Dallas	10-4
4	Cincinnati	8-6		4	Arizona	10-4
5	Indianapolis	8-6		5	LA Rams	10-4
6	LA Chargers	8-6		6	San Francisco	8-6
7	Buffalo	8-6		7	Minnesota	7-7
8	Baltimore	8-6		8	Philadelphia	7-7
9	Pittsburgh	7-6-1		9	New Orleans	7-7
10	Las Vegas	7-7		10	Washington	6-8
11	Miami	7-7		11	Atlanta	6-8
12	Cleveland	7-7		12	Carolina	5-9
13	Denver	7-7		13	Seattle	5-9
14	NY Jets	3-11		14	NY Giants	4-10
15	Houston	3-11		15	Chicago	4-10
16	Jacksonville	2-12		16	Detroit	2-11-1

Kansas
win + LA Chargers loss/tie -> division champion
win + LA Chargers win -> playoffs
tie + LA Chargers loss -> division champions
tie + LA Chargers win/tie + at least 1 of 3 from: Cincinnati @ Baltimore has a winner, Indianapolis loss, Buffalo loss -> playoffs
LA Chargers can still get tie-breakers on conference record.

New England
win + Miami loss/tie -> division champion
win + Miami win + Pittsburgh loss + Las Vegas loss/tie -> playoffs
New England would secure tie-breakers over Buffalo (by beating them in week 16) and also in the 3-way with Miami, but not yet in a 2-way vs Miami, which makes the Miami loss/tie a requirement to secure the division.

Tennessee
win + Buffalo loss (vs New England) + Miami loss/tie + Pittsburgh loss + Las Vegas loss/tie + Cleveland loss/tie + Denver loss/tie -> playoffs
If Tennessee wins in week 16 and Indianapolis loses in week 16, Indianapolis will still be able to get common games tie-breaker over Tennessee.
To secure a wild card in week 16, Tennessee needs New England to secure the AFC East, as that will ensure Buffalo falls behind Tennessee in every possible scenario, and all the 7-win teams to fall to being unable to get to 10-7.

Cincinnati, Indianapolis, LA Chargers, Buffalo, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Las Vegas, Miami, Cleveland and Denver are all still in the race.


Green Bay
division champion
cannot clinch #1 seed in week 16, because Dallas will have conference record tie-breaker if they catch up with Green Bay.

Tampa Bay
win/tie -> division champion
loss + New Orleans loss/tie -> division champion
loss + New Orleans win + at least 2 of 3 from: San Francisco loss, Minnesota loss/tie, Philadelphia loss/tie -> playoffs
New Orleans will have head-to-head tie-breaker over Tampa Bay.

Dallas
division champion
Dallas has strength of victory tie-breaker over Philadelphia.

Arizona
win/tie -> playoffs
loss + at least 2 of 4 from: San Francisco loss, Minnesota loss/tie, Philadelphia loss/tie, New Orleans loss/tie -> playoffs
Arizona can lose tie-breakers to LA Rams if Arizona beats Dallas in week 17 and loses to Seattle in week 18, while LA Rams loses to Baltimore in week 16 and LA Rams beats San Francisco in week 18.
Arizona has division record tie-beakers over San Francisco.

LA Rams
win/tie -> playoffs
loss + at least 2 of 3 from: Minnesota loss/tie, Philadelphia loss/tie, New Orleans loss/tie -> playoffs
San Francisco can still get head-to-head tie-breaker over LA Rams in week 18.
LA Rams can get tie-breakers over Arizona if Arizona beats Dallas in week 17 and loses to Seattle in week 18, while LA Rams loses to Baltimore in week 16 and LA Rams beats San Francisco in week 18.

San Francisco, Minnesota, Philadelphia, New Orleans, Washington, Atlanta, Carolina, Seattle and NY Giants are all still in the playoffs race.

NY Giants (or Chicago, but not both due to their week 17 clash) can end up with a 7-10 record and tied with two other teams for the last wild card, both requiring a scenario including at least: Minnesota losing the last 3 games, Philadelpia losing the last 3 games, New Orleans losing the last 3 games, Washington losing against Dallas (week 16) and NY Giants (week 18), Atlanta losing against Detroit (week 16) and Buffalo (week 17), Carolina getting at most 1 win (or 2 ties) against Tampa Bay (week 16 and 18), Seattle losing at least 1 of their last 3 games.

NY Giants would have head-to-head over Washington and Philadelphia to begin with and then conference record tie-breaker over Minnesota and Atlanta.
Chicago would end up tied with Washington and Atlanta, in which case Washington will get the last wild card on conference record. This means Chicago is eliminated.

[Ksyrup]

Well now we're looking at a waste of another MNF game since it appears Ian Book is going to start for NO.