2014 NFL Regular Season, Week 16

[Pumpy Tudors]

Originally Posted by Matthean

NFC South champ will finish with 7 wins.

Imagine this comedy: If the Panthers and Falcons tie, then the Panthers get the division with 6 wins. For even more comedy, if the Saints were to win next week on top of that, the 6-win Panthers would win the division over the 7-win Saints.

[Thomkal]

Thanks carolina and Atlanta for winning and knocking the Saints out of any possible Wild Card matchup with the Cards. Now Carolina do that next week against the Falcons if my beloved Cards lose tonight.

Good to see Cam Newton apparently escape uninjured-was really worried he'd be limited after that car accident.

[cartman]

Looks like the Cowboys are doing their damnedest to break the December curse

[Desnudo]

Originally Posted by Pumpy Tudors

Imagine this comedy: If the Panthers and Falcons tie, then the Panthers get the division with 6 wins. For even more comedy, if the Saints were to win next week on top of that, the 6-win Panthers would win the division over the 7-win Saints.

A tie would be a fitting end to the Toilet Bowl

[BillJasper]

Awesome. Bringing Philbin back for his lame duck season!

Stephen Ross says Joe Philbin will return in 2015 | ProFootballTalk

[Lathum]

Rams taking some real cheap shots at Beckham and he finally had enough leading to quite the brew ha.

[MIJB#19]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

It was when the Steelers won.

Nope. Miami was already destined to finish behind the AFC North second placed team, before Pittsburgh beat Kansas City. San Diego's win guaranteed that Miami would also finish behind the AFC West's second placed team.

[Matthean]

Garret fighting for his job seems ages ago.

[MIJB#19]

Originally Posted by Pumpy Tudors

Imagine this comedy: If the Panthers and Falcons tie, then the Panthers get the division with 6 wins. For even more comedy, if the Saints were to win next week on top of that, the 6-win Panthers would win the division over the 7-win Saints.

And if Atlanta wins, they go into the playoffs with a 1-9 record outside the division, the worst record of the entire NFL this season (tied with Tennessee and possibly Oakland if they lose to Buffalo tonight).

[BillJasper]

Originally Posted by MIJB#19

Nope. Miami was already destined to finish behind the AFC North second placed team, before Pittsburgh beat Kansas City. San Diego's win guaranteed that Miami would also finish behind the AFC West's second placed team.

I don't know the math behind it but they didn't bring up Miami being eliminated until after the Steelers won.

[Matthean]

For all the talk of Oakland going after Harbaugh, Oakland could be 3-3 in their last six with wins against KC, San Fran, and Buffalo.

[MIJB#19]

Originally Posted by BillJasper

I don't know the math behind it but they didn't bring up Miami being eliminated until after the Steelers won.

Well duh, they didn't hire me to do the math.

[BillJasper]

Originally Posted by Matthean

For all the talk of Oakland going after Harbaugh, Oakland could be 3-3 in their last six with wins against KC, San Fran, and Buffalo.

I don't think Sparano is a bad coach. Wish we would've kept him in Miami instead of hiring Philbin.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by MIJB#19

Nope. Miami was already destined to finish behind the AFC North second placed team, before Pittsburgh beat Kansas City. San Diego's win guaranteed that Miami would also finish behind the AFC West's second placed team.

No it didn't. Miami beat San Diego, so they'd only be one game behind them with the tiebreak edge.

[MIJB#19]

Here's why Miami was eliminated on Saturday:

If Kansas City ties Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh's 9-6-1 puts the AFC North #2 out of reach for Miami also means the KC-SD winner will be 9-6-1 at worst.

If Pittsburgh beats Kansas City, the AFC North #2 will be 9-6-1 at worst, also meaning Kansas City has to beat San Diego in week 17 to become the AFC West #2 at 9-7. Eventually Miami and Kansas City will be tied in conference record (7-5 each) and KC gets the wild card on head-to-head win. (This scenario came into play)

If Kansas City beats Pittsburgh, the AFC West #2 will be 9-6-1 at worst (KC plays SD) and the AFC North's #2 will be at worst 9-7, and will be Pittsburgh.
It means the AFC North #2 team must be 9-7, which means it has to be Pittsburgh on conference record ahead of Baltimore and possibly Cleveland. Also meaning Houston not beating Jacksonville in week 17 to finish 8-7-1 or worse. Then, Pittsburgh and Miami will be tied in conference record (7-5 each), making it come down to strength of victory.

SOV for Miami would then be 64 at best (13-3 NE, 2x 3-13 NYJ, 8-8 BUF, 9-7 SD, 4-12 OAK, 4-12 JAC, 7-9 CHI, 6-10 MIN, buf has to lose to oak and ne, chi-min play hth in wk17).
SOV for Pittsburgh would then be 64.5 at worst (10-5-1 CIN, 9-7 BAL, 7-9 CLE, 10-6 IND, 3-13 TEN, 4-12 JAC, 8-8 HOU, 6-9-1 CAR, ATL 6-9-1, cle has to beat bal, ten-ind in wk17, jac-hou in wk17, car-cle in wk16, hou in wk16, car-atl in wk17).

[MIJB#19]

Long story short: San Diego winning on Saturday meant that both the AFC North and the AFC West #2 teams will be 9-7 or better and both with tie-breakers over Miami.

[Buccaneer]

MIJB, I look forward to your playoff scenarios every season. Love your analysis.

[MIJB#19]

Originally Posted by Buccaneer

MIJB, I look forward to your playoff scenarios every season. Love your analysis.

Thanks.

Had I not missed that SD-SF was on Saturday (the sites I frequent said it was on Sunday, not realizing they meant Sunday early AM), I may have realized the Miami elimination scenario above sooner.

San Diego's win also eliminated Cleveland. Though Cleveland's chances were very slim anyway, requiring a KC-SD tie in week 17. At 9-7 they would always be stuck behind Pittsburgh for the first wild card on conference record (5-7 vs Pittsburgh's 7-5) and for the second wild card they'd also lose on that tie-breaker to KC (7-5) or SD (6-6).

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

Wow. For a total of 15 minutes, even I, as a Pats fan(atic) thought they had screwed the Jets. Still not sure on the first down ruling, but wow. Escape, First Round Bye, and if the Bengals can do it tommorrow night, homefield. I don't want to play the Bills when they are going for a playoff birth if we still need a win.

I am sure there is nothing to worry about. The Bengals always bring it in the big games

[SirFozzie]

Well it looks like the Bills will only have pride to play for in week 17 anyway

[Atocep]

Lions Football

[rowech]

Looking more and more that there are four games that matter. Cincy needs either a win at home against Denver, a win on the road against Pittsburgh, a Charger loss in Kansas City, or a Ravens loss at home against Cleveland. They need one of these things to happen and I'm really not sure any of them will. Damn Nugent.

[Desnudo]

Matt Hasselbeck is stil a QB. I had no idea.

[Lathum]

Glad Brenneman called out the Rams for all the cheap shots they were taking on Beckham, I am disappointed by a Jeff Fischer coached team being so dirty. I had more respect for him.

[Lathum]

Sun Tzu has been surprisingly absent from these threads lately...

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by MIJB#19

Here's why Miami was eliminated on Saturday:

If Kansas City ties Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh's 9-6-1 puts the AFC North #2 out of reach for Miami also means the KC-SD winner will be 9-6-1 at worst.

If Pittsburgh beats Kansas City, the AFC North #2 will be 9-6-1 at worst, also meaning Kansas City has to beat San Diego in week 17 to become the AFC West #2 at 9-7. Eventually Miami and Kansas City will be tied in conference record (7-5 each) and KC gets the wild card on head-to-head win. (This scenario came into play)

If Kansas City beats Pittsburgh, the AFC West #2 will be 9-6-1 at worst (KC plays SD) and the AFC North's #2 will be at worst 9-7, and will be Pittsburgh.
It means the AFC North #2 team must be 9-7, which means it has to be Pittsburgh on conference record ahead of Baltimore and possibly Cleveland. Also meaning Houston not beating Jacksonville in week 17 to finish 8-7-1 or worse. Then, Pittsburgh and Miami will be tied in conference record (7-5 each), making it come down to strength of victory.

SOV for Miami would then be 64 at best (13-3 NE, 2x 3-13 NYJ, 8-8 BUF, 9-7 SD, 4-12 OAK, 4-12 JAC, 7-9 CHI, 6-10 MIN, buf has to lose to oak and ne, chi-min play hth in wk17).
SOV for Pittsburgh would then be 64.5 at worst (10-5-1 CIN, 9-7 BAL, 7-9 CLE, 10-6 IND, 3-13 TEN, 4-12 JAC, 8-8 HOU, 6-9-1 CAR, ATL 6-9-1, cle has to beat bal, ten-ind in wk17, jac-hou in wk17, car-cle in wk16, hou in wk16, car-atl in wk17).

Common opponents comes before SOV. Their common opponents would be KC, Jacksonville, NYJ, and Baltimore.

In the scenario where Pitt lost to KC today, then they'd be 2-3 (W Jac, W Bal, L Bal, L NYJ, L KC). Then if Miami beat NYJ next week, they'd be 3-2 (W Jac, W NYJ, W NYJ, L Bal, L KC).

[Thomkal]

Hoping for a Christmas miracle tonight Santa

Let's go Beloved Cardinals!

[MIJB#19]

All possible tied situations after week 17 and which team wins the tie-breaker.

AFC tied situations for division title vs 2nd place
Pittsburgh over Cincinnati on hth

AFC tied situations for 2nd vs 3rd place in the division
Cincinnati over Baltimore on hth
Pittsburgh over Baltimore on conference record
Kansas City over San Diego on hth

AFC tied situations for division champs seeding
New England over Denver on hth
Denver&Indianapolis over Cincinnati on conference, go to by DEN-IND below
Denver&Pittsburgh over Indianapolis on hth, go to DEN-PIT below
Cincinnati over Denver on hth
Denver over Pittsburgh on SOV
Indianapolis over Cincinnati on hth
Pittsburgh over Indianapolis on hth

AFC tied situations for wild card seeding
San Diego over Cincinnati on conference
Pittsburgh over San Diego on conference
Baltimore over San Diego on hth
Houston over Baltimore&Kansas City&Buffalo on conference
Houston over Baltimore&Kansas City&Miami on conference
Houston over Baltimore&Kansas City on conference
Houston over Baltimore&Buffalo/Miami on conference
Kansas City over Baltimore&Buffalo on conference
Kansas City over Baltimore&Miami on conference
Kansas City over Baltimore on conference
Houston over Baltimore on hth


NFC tied situations for division title
Green Bay over Detroit on hth
Seattle over Arizona on hth

NFC tied situations for division champs seeding or wild card seeding
Arizona over Dallas&Detroit on hth, followed by DET>DAL below
Arizona&Green Bay over Dallas on conference, then ARZ-GB(12-4) below
Seattle&Detroit over Dallas on conference, then SEA>DET below
Seattle over Dallas&Green Bay on conference, followed by GB>DAL below
Arizona over Dallas on hth
Arizona over Detroit on hth
Arizona (win vs Sea) 12-4 over Green Bay on SOV
Green Bay 12-4 over Arizona (win/tie vs SF) on common games
Arizona (tie vs Sea) 11-4-1 over Green Bay on SOV
Green Bay 11-4-1 over Arizona (tie vs SF) on common games
Arizona 11-5 over Green Bay on SOV
Detroit over Dallas on conference
Green Bay over Dallas on conference
Dallas over Seattle on hth
Seattle over Detroit on common games
Seattle over Green Bay on hth


Remember that in-division tie-breakers are always applied first, hence the absence of a Dallas vs Detroit vs Green Bay scenario. it's Detroit vs Green Bay first, then the winner vs Dallas.

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by Dutch

I love how it's the NFLPA and the players that complain about all these long term injuries and then the players on the field are dishing out cheap shots intended completely to seriously injure/harm each other. Lions DL went helmet to helmet with a sliding Clausen, for example. I'm all for players signing waivers before their pro careers start that say, "I know this is dangerous and will put my money away for my own medical expenses later on" and just let them play.

Originally Posted by Atocep

Lions Football

There ya go, looks like it's a learned/coached trait for the Lions defense...but at some point, these football players have got to look past "I'm just following orders" and make some ethical decisions with or without the help of their coaches. If you want to clean up football, start with crap like this.

[MIJB#19]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

Common opponents comes before SOV. Their common opponents would be KC, Jacksonville, NYJ, and Baltimore.

In the scenario where Pitt lost to KC today, then they'd be 2-3 (W Jac, W Bal, L Bal, L NYJ, L KC). Then if Miami beat NYJ next week, they'd be 3-2 (W Jac, W NYJ, W NYJ, L Bal, L KC).

You are correct, sir. And I stand corrected.

I'm aware of common games being before SOV, but because of the hindside nature of my calculations, I just noticed I had Pitt still beating KC for the common games tie-breaker.

[Thomkal]

wow Lynch not being able to start with an upset stomach-pretty big break for the Cards if he can't play much

[tucker rocky]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

wow Lynch not being able to start with an upset stomach-pretty big break for the Cards if he can't play much

Baking brownies.

[Coffee Warlord]

Luck got me 2 god damn points, and now Lynch isn't starting. Fantasy gods hate me.

[Thomkal]

Ya know Coach Arians, you don't have to throw it long every down...

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by tucker rocky

Baking brownies.

LOL

[Matthean]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

wow Lynch not being able to start with an upset stomach-pretty big break for the Cards if he can't play much

A big break for the Cards would be having one of their other QBs able to play.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

Luck got me 2 god damn points, and now Lynch isn't starting. Fantasy gods hate me.

I feel your pain. I have Lynch and Manning who may not go much tomorrow if at all.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Matthean

A big break for the Cards would be having one of their other QBs able to play.

"Next man up"

[stevew]

Arizona has this great PI drawing offense strategy.

[Abe Sargent]

Yay, somebody finally scored!

[Thomkal]

Sooner or later Lindley's not going to get so lucky with these near picks.

[Matthean]

Feels like a 10-9 game in the making.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

Yay, somebody finally scored!

Defense playing above and beyond yet again

[Thomkal]

well that was a short-lived lead...

[albionmoonlight]

Fitting end to the Saints season. Meh. Here's hoping the Panthers take it next week.

[Atocep]

This arizona team reminds me of the '05 bears.

[rowech]

Bengals-Steelers flexed to Sunday night next week. Somehow it just had to be that way.

[stevew]

I feel like I like State of Affairs the way it is. I sure hope that the show doesn't change anytime soon.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by rowech

Bengals-Steelers flexed to Sunday night next week. Somehow it just had to be that way.

Can they just forfeit so I don't have to watch the last two games?

[stevew]

This is just a horrible Arizona offense.