Who will (not should) be the Republican presidential nominee in 2008?

[ISiddiqui]

Well, if they did, I do like the honesty. McCain obviously is. He has, by far, the most experience in the foriegn policy realm now that Biden is out (McCain probably has more than Biden, but it isn't by much).

[Young Drachma]

The GOP debates are so much more tolerable to watch than the Democratic debates. It's a joke to watch Hillary and Obama fight each other and then you have Edwards in this new "role" as a populist, play good cop to their bad cop.

It's a shame none of these GOP candidates are that riveting and all have major flaws. It's also interesting that they're far more "diverse" than the Democratic field was. Politically, the Dems were the same except for Kucinich.

That said, they all sound the same to me, while the Republicans might not be riveting or "diverse" racially, there are clear, distinct differences in what each would do with the country I think. Even if politically they're the same except for Paul.

Though I love how they co opt each other's language. The whole "change" talk by Romney and the whole "Ready To Lead On Day 1" stuff with McCain.

The openness of this race is intriguing and I'm really curious to see what will happen.

[Young Drachma]

Dola --

And it's great having Ron Paul up there. Just because he's the only one who is clearly an independent thinker. Those other drones just repeat the same talking points that I could see on FOX.

[Groundhog]

I'd read a little about Ron Paul and was actually starting to kinda like the guy until I learned he was a wacky creationist.

[Young Drachma]

I really like the whole "ask a question of your opponent" deal. Seems they're taking it seriously and they're not snipping at each other, it's real, substantive debate.

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by Groundhog

I'd read a little about Ron Paul and was actually starting to kinda like the guy until I learned he was a wacky creationist.

Yeah, he's about as unpresidential as you can be. And I can't support him, because he's got a few wacky views that I'm not down with. But...he's still more refreshing than the rest of them. But it's REALLY funny how the other candidates don't like him and they clearly roll their eyes when he talks and probably wish he wasn't up there with them.

He tried to get McCain on a detailed financial question and McCain didn't bite, deflecting that he has lots of smart people to advise him.

Paul doesn't handle the spotlight very well, he's too reactive and doesn't have the personality to handle the stage. But..I appreciate his fervor for policy and desire to try to shake things up some.

There seems to be a real dichotomy between the polished politician wing of the GOP on stage and the lolly-pop idealist wing of the party on stage. So you have Huckabee and Paul on one side of that, who Rudy, McCain and Romney are probably wishing would just go away...Rudy who is still acting like he's far more "in this" than his numbers have proven at this point and McCain and Romney avoiding each other rather than treating each other like frontrunners.

But I do think it's more interesting with more of them up there than if it were just the "big three" up there dodging serious questions.

Rudy to me doesn't seem to have the mettle for this national test. I feel like he's just not really showing us enough as a national candidate. McCain looks like he's really poised this time and that he wants to sneak in there and Romney's CEO as President deal to me just doesn't seem like it'll sell nationally and just looking at them up there, it seems McCain has the confidence of a serious contender and that his national experience as a campaign -- albeit an aged one -- will make him the nominee in the end.

I mean, a lot can happen. But I feel like Romney's slickback isn't going to convince anyone he can be President and that beyond the whole "I've been an chief executive of a state and I reformed the Winter Olympics that no one watched," deal that he's going to fizzle out. The Mormon thing won't be the reason, mind you, I think he just have the looks of someone you can trust. Plus, can he win Massachusetts in a battle against Obama or Hillary? I'm not so sure...

[Bubba Wheels]

I give Romney lots of credit for standing up to the piling-on a front-runner should expect without..boo hoo hoo...crying a river about it like Bonnie and Clyde (Bill and Hill) in the other party. I will almost surely support him now.

Ron Paul's strength, again, has never been his stage presence. Always been his ideas. God Bless him for sticking it out, he needs to be heard and his ideas (which can all be traced back to sound economic policy) will live on long after he is gone. That will be his enduring, and appreciated, legacy.

[Toddzilla]

Originally Posted by Bubba Wheels

Ron Paul's strength, again, has never been his stage presence. Always been his ideas. God Bless him for sticking it out, he needs to be heard and his ideas (which can all be traced back to sound economic policy) will live on long after he is gone. That will be his enduring, and appreciated, legacy.

I don't think that word means what you think it means.

[Vegas Vic]

Romney is making a strong move to be the frontrunner and take this thing down on "Super Tuesday". Florida is now a dead heat, and trending Romney as we head to Tuesday.

Also, keep in mind that only registered republicans can vote in the remaining primaries, so McCain can't count on the support of democrats and independents anymore. In South Carolina, Huckabee actually beat McCain among registered republicans.

[flere-imsaho]

1. Looking at the poll totals from this thread, it's very interesting to note that we mostly thought Giuliani would win it.

2. I'm pulling for Giuliani in Florida. The entertainment of the Repubs heading into Super Tuesday with 4 candidates having won primaries is simply too tempting.

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

1. Looking at the poll totals from this thread, it's very interesting to note that we mostly thought Giuliani would win it.

Not only here, but all across the country. Early on, Giuliani was high in the national polls without regard to the state by state races, and he had great name recognition but had not yet been scrutinized by the republican base for his stand on the issues.

[Jas_lov]

With 3% of precincts reporting, Romney and McCain are tied at 31% each. Giuliani at 17%, Huckabee 14%.

[Jas_lov]

15% in, McCain up by 20,000 votes. Giluiani is a distant 3rd. I wonder if he'll drop out before February 5th so he doesn't get embarrassed in his home state. He surrendered in every state thus far except Florida and still came in 3rd. He has less delegates than Ron Paul. Giuliani should surrender in all of the states tonight.

[Jas_lov]

Fox News exit polls had Romney at 35%, McCain at 31%. The economy was by far the most important issue, but McCain finished with a higher % among those voters 34% to Romney's 30%.

[st.cronin]

If Giuliani drops out, who does that help more, McCain or Romney? I doubt his voters will be switching to Huckabee.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

If Giuliani drops out, who does that help more, McCain or Romney? I doubt his voters will be switching to Huckabee.

I gotta think he helps McCain more. Both are seen as moderate Republicans on several issues, but also extremely tough on the terrorists.

However, I think he steps up the attack and tries to win a couple states on Super Tuesday.

[molson]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

I gotta think he helps McCain more. Both are seen as moderate Republicans on several issues, but also extremely tough on the terrorists.

However, I think he steps up the attack and tries to win a couple states on Super Tuesday.

I think Rudy's done tomorrow - his consulting business and image takes a huge hit if he's slaughtered on Super Tuesday (and especially with a humiliating loss in NY)

What a dumb strategy.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by molson

What a dumb strategy.

+1

[st.cronin]

I kind of got the feeling that Rudy G. never really wanted to be President... he just wanted to go through the motions.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I kind of got the feeling that Rudy G. never really wanted to be President... he just wanted to go through the motions.

I think you've got him confused with Fred Thompson.

[Jas_lov]

46% in and McCain is up by 40,000 votes.

[molson]

Maybe Rudy's just laying low until the May 27th Idaho primary.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

I think you've got him confused with Fred Thompson.

Oh no, I think Thompson WANTED to be President ... I think he just didn't want to run. He was hoping to get appointed.

[Jas_lov]

Huckabee says he's just getting started. Giuliani to speak soon and rumors on drudge say he will drop out as early as tomorrow and endorse John McCain.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

+1

+2

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

I think you've got him confused with Fred Thompson.

+1 And you all know how I hate to agree with Jon.

I definitely think Giuliani wanted to be President, I definitely think he played games with the primary season, and it definitely appears to have bitten him in the ass.

Now the big question: Does a Giuliani endorsement of McCain help or hurt McCain?

OK, seriously. Giuliani dropping out probably gives his "tough foreign policy" votes to McCain and his "economic credentials" votes to Romney. I think there's probably more of the former than the latter (that were voting for Giuliani). Of course, if he drops out before Super Tuesday, how many of his supporters just stay home?

[Jas_lov]

John McCain is the winner of the Florida primary!

[Arles]

AP just called Florida for McCain

[Buccaneer]

I had thought it would be a McCain/Thompson ticket but seeing that Thompson is a lazy ass, I'm not too sure. I have to look at how Romney plays in the South to see if he'll help that ticket.

[flere-imsaho]

McCain & Romney don't like each other, at all, so that won't be the ticket.

McCain & Thompson, aside from Thompson's laziness, is probably too "old" of a ticket.

If McCain's the nominee, I'd imagine the Veep would be a younger, "warmer" candidate who's good on domestic issues, i.e. a "compassionate conservative." Bonus points if he goes out on a limb and gets a similarly-qualified woman.

[Buccaneer]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

McCain & Romney don't like each other, at all, so that won't be the ticket.

McCain & Thompson, aside from Thompson's laziness, is probably too "old" of a ticket.

If McCain's the nominee, I'd imagine the Veep would be a younger, "warmer" candidate who's good on domestic issues, i.e. a "compassionate conservative." Bonus points if he goes out on a limb and gets a similarly-qualified woman.

I can't disagree with any of that, esp. knowing the bad blood between the two (just like it won't be a Obama/Clinton ticket). I would augment your last statement in picking a warmer, Southern candidate not named Huckabee.

[st.cronin]

McCain/Rice? Does that make any sense?

[Jas_lov]

McCain just needs a conservative running mate that will satisfy the conservative base. It won't be Romney, Huckabee, Thompson, or Giuliani. Rudy didn't endorse anyone in his speech, but said he ran a good campaign.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

McCain/Rice? Does that make any sense?

Rice has never run for the election of anything. You've got to have a somewhat seasoned campaigner as Veep to survive the General.

Besides, this ticket would just scream: "No new ideas."

[flere-imsaho]

If it's a woman, maybe Christine Todd Whitman? Former Governor?

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

If it's a woman, maybe Christine Todd Whitman? Former Governor?

That would, imo, be a formidable ticket, and would herald a revolution in the GOP.

[SirFozzie]

I like this comment from RealClearPolitics, who are liveblogging tonight..

9:30PM - Rudy Giuliani, in his concession (withdrawal?) speech, calls the GOP the "Party of Bush." Those thumping sounds you just heard were NRCC chair Tom Cole and NRSC chair John Ensign bashing their heads against walls in frustration. - REID WILSON

[SirFozzie]

They're also saying that if Giuliani does drop out tommorrow and endorses McCain, that's pretty much wrapping it up for McCain.

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

If it's a woman, maybe Christine Todd Whitman? Former Governor?

Too liberal of a ticket. And I don't know if she's enough to say, convince NJ/NY/PA to swing red. Specifically the home state and PA. He does need a woman and I've heard lots of Condi talk, simply because she'd "balance" some of the spark of what Obama might bring to the Dems were he to outlast the two-headed Clinton monster. And you know Dubya would be all for the idea.

But she's too serious for a gig like that and would be a bad campaigner.

All of the Yankee Republicans who are women are too moderate and basically RINOs. And McCain is considered a RINO by some of the more conservative members of the GOP and as a result, he'll need someone who bolsters his conservative credentials, who isn't scary and who has personality and who is younger.

Man...there's a shopping list.

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

That would, imo, be a formidable ticket, and would herald a revolution in the GOP.

Maybe in 2000 it would've.

[SirFozzie]

My thoughts as a neutral: The conservative base will not be delighted with McCain as the nominee. Too many folks view him as a RINO. This doesn't matter much when he's facing Hilary, there's enough fervor of "oh god, anybody but Clinton" that will get his base behind him solidly, even if they have to hold their collective noses to do so.

If it's Obama, who has cross over potential of his own (arguably greater then McCain).... well.. that base will not be there for McCain, and Obama will win easily, I think

[terpkristin]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

My thoughts as a neutral: The conservative base will not be delighted with McCain as the nominee. Too many folks view him as a RINO. This doesn't matter much when he's facing Hilary, there's enough fervor of "oh god, anybody but Clinton" that will get his base behind him solidly, even if they have to hold their collective noses to do so.

If it's Obama, who has cross over potential of his own (arguably greater then McCain).... well.. that base will not be there for McCain, and Obama will win easily, I think

I've been lurkin in this thread over the last day or so. What is a RINO?

/tk

[SirFozzie]

Something to be serious about when it's charging your ass.

No, seriously, a RINO is a "Republican In Name Only", an epithet hurled by the two of the major groups at Republicans who are not "conservative enough" in either A) Financial Policy (if you're not for tax breaks for business for example), or B) Moral Imperatives (anti-abortion, gay marriage, immigration etcetera).

The two things that McCain falls flat on is A) Immigration (he's the one who proposed to make about 12 million illegal immigrants in this country legal, which sent a certain part of the Republican party into convulsions), and B) His Campaign Finance bill.

[Buccaneer]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

My thoughts as a neutral: The conservative base will not be delighted with McCain as the nominee. Too many folks view him as a RINO. This doesn't matter much when he's facing Hilary, there's enough fervor of "oh god, anybody but Clinton" that will get his base behind him solidly, even if they have to hold their collective noses to do so.

If it's Obama, who has cross over potential of his own (arguably greater then McCain).... well.. that base will not be there for McCain, and Obama will win easily, I think

Win easily? I don't know but you can be assured that all of the Southern and most of the Midwestern states will go red. Will most of the big states (NY, PA, OH, IL, PA) be enough? I predict that, for the first time in a long time, California will be in play. McCain will play very well in Southern Cal and the interior regions.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Dark Cloud

Man...there's a shopping list.

Might be easier to find a unicorn at this point.

[Buccaneer]

Originally Posted by Dark Cloud

Too liberal of a ticket. And I don't know if she's enough to say, convince NJ/NY/PA to swing red. Specifically the home state and PA. He does need a woman and I've heard lots of Condi talk, simply because she'd "balance" some of the spark of what Obama might bring to the Dems were he to outlast the two-headed Clinton monster. And you know Dubya would be all for the idea.

But she's too serious for a gig like that and would be a bad campaigner.

All of the Yankee Republicans who are women are too moderate and basically RINOs. And McCain is considered a RINO by some of the more conservative members of the GOP and as a result, he'll need someone who bolsters his conservative credentials, who isn't scary and who has personality and who is younger.

Man...there's a shopping list.

Re-reading your post, I think you are right on. McCain will have to pick a younger Governor that is not part of the current Administration.

[Greyroofoo]

NBC News is saying Guiliani is dropping out and endorsing McCain.

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

My thoughts as a neutral: The conservative base will not be delighted with McCain as the nominee. Too many folks view him as a RINO.

FOX News was talking about this tonight, vis a vis Rush Limbaugh and the fact that they're going to be pissed that McCain has more steam going forward and they speculated that in order to go forward, McCain had to pay homage to the "conservative base" of the GOP to let them know he's "their candidate too" or something. Some on the panel were convinced he'd do it eventually, others were not so sure.

[SirFozzie]

Originally Posted by Dark Cloud

FOX News was talking about this tonight, vis a vis Rush Limbaugh and the fact that they're going to be pissed that McCain has more steam going forward and they speculated that in order to go forward, McCain had to pay homage to the "conservative base" of the GOP to let them know he's "their candidate too" or something. Some on the panel were convinced he'd do it eventually, others were not so sure.

The problem being, that folks are lining up to fight him on his own side.

From http://thepage.time.com/

Citizens United Political Victory Fund – run by longtime activist Dave Bossie — to hit Fox News Channel Thursday with six-figure television buy comparing McCain to Hillary Clinton.

(From the Commercial) McCain “joined Ted Kennedy to sponsor amnesty for illegals… John McCain — surprisingly liberal.”

It's a last ditch effort to try to throw support on to Romney (who isn't much better, but at least is willing to be a weathervane for his base), but.. ugh.. you have to see it sticking in the minds of some./

[Swaggs]

Perhaps a stretch, but how would a ticket of McCain/Jeb Bush look?

I think it would work well against Hillary--probably not as well against Obama.

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by Buccaneer

Re-reading your post, I think you are right on. McCain will have to pick a younger Governor that is not part of the current Administration.

Bobby Jindal, anyone?

I just thought about that. Sure, he JUST got into the Louisiana Governor's house. But...he's pretty popular down there, he's a technocrat like Obama and has been rising up the GOP ranks for a lil' while now.

The only problem is, I don't think nationally he'd offer much for them and it's doubtful that he'd take it, preferring to settle in as Governor.
But there's a darkhorse for you. But he's young as hell.

Another idea, though another longshot -- Hawaii Governor Linda Lingle.


Neither of these people are going to overwhelm you with their "conservative credentials", but I think that if we're talking about GOP balance and "inclusiveness" as far as the beancounting media is concerned, both would offer you something in the way of that.

Alaska Governor Sarah Palin would give him balance too and Alaska is a solidly red state, if distant and far away...

But none of those people really has any national stage experience, so it would be a real trial by fire for all of them and that's not always a good thing. But I'd figure they're desperate this year to offset the Hillary or Obama factor and I'm afraid in the era of American Idol, that policy knowledge and smarts isn't going to be enough.

But it's still early to tell what's really gonna happen, obviously.