Crappy BCS analysis / prediction thread

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by mtolson

What do people think we would be looking at if Michigan had beat Ohio State. Just curious.

Probably the same games, but with Buckeye in the Rose Bowl and Michigan vs. Florida for the title.

[VPI97]

Originally Posted by Galaxy

Looking at Florida's schedule (including a 1-AA team) and play against South Carolina, Vandy, Tennessee in tha wild game, Georgia, Florida State, is it really better?

IMHO, it looks significantly tougher than Michigan's schedule. But that's probably because I'm more familiar with southeastern teams than midwestern teams.

[cartman]

If strength of schedule is such an important factor now, why wasn't it when Auburn didn't make the championship game when they had the best SOS of the three undefeated teams?

[timmynausea]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Florida has a small lead over Michigan in the AP. I don't see how them beating the team that beat Michigan would get voters to push Michigan ahead.

Exactly. In the 1993-94 season a 1 loss Florida State got picked to play undefeated Nebraska over a 1 loss Notre Dame that had beaten FSU earlier in the year. When FSU beat Nebraska, nobody outside of South Bend called for a split championship. Michigan's argument pales in comparison to that.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by cartman

If strength of schedule is such an important factor now, why wasn't it when Auburn didn't make the championship game when they had the best SOS of the three undefeated teams?

Because it supports the argument this time around.

[Crim]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Florida has a small lead over Michigan in the AP. I don't see how them beating the team that beat Michigan would get voters to push Michigan ahead.

Here's how it works:
1) Michigan beats USC (probable). Any amount is fine, 1 point or a dozen, it doesn't matter.
2) Florida beats tOSU (unlikely, but I'm hopeful). Again, margin of victory won't matter for this exercize.
3) The coaches poll is locked into crowning the Gators as the BCS Champ. Woohoo, since I'm a Gator fan.
4) The AP voters do the right thing, and vote (almost unanimously, I'll bet) Michigan #1, to reward them for having been screwed out of the BCS Championship game.
5) The nation bemoans another split championship, and a cacophany of "playoffs" arises anew.

Now let it be said, I'm a huge Gator fan, but this is exactly the scenario I'm hoping for: My team wins the NC, and the BCS is dealt another blow. Won't be enough to bring it down as an institution, but maybe if we keep chipping away...

I for one would certainly not begrudge the Wolvies for sharing a title, it is a specious argument at best that my team deserved the title chance more.

[Vinatieri for Prez]

I believe they have changed the formula since then, no?

[Crim]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Because it supports the argument this time around.

Look, we're pretty much all arguing the same thing: this system sucks.

[tucker rocky]

Poinsettia December 19 Northern Illinois (7-5) vs.
at San Diego (8:00 p.m. - ESPN2) TCU (10-2)

Las Vegas December 21 BYU (10-2) vs.
at Las Vegas (8:00 p.m. - ESPN) Oregon (7-5)

New Orleans December 22 Rice (7-5) vs.
at New Orleans, Louisiana (8:00 p.m. - ESPN2) Troy (7-5)

New Mexico ~ December 23 New Mexico (6-6) vs.
at Albuquerque, New Mexico (4:30 p.m. - ESPN) San Jose St (8-4)

Papajohns.com ~ December 23 South Florida (8-4) vs.
at Birmingham, Alabama (1:00 p.m. - ESPN2) East Carolina (7-5)

Armed Forces % December 23 Utah (7-5) vs.
at Fort Worth, Texas (8:00 p.m. - ESPN) Tulsa (8-4)

Hawaii December 24 Hawaii (10-3) vs.
at Honolulu (8:00 p.m. - ESPN) Arizona St (7-5)

Motor City December 26 Middle Tennessee (7-5) vs.
at Detroit (7:30 p.m. - ESPN) Central Michigan (9-4)

Emerald December 27 Florida St (6-6) vs.
at San Francisco (8:00 p.m. - ESPN) UCLA (7-5)

Independence December 28 Oklahoma St (6-6) vs.
at Shreveport, Louisiana (4:30 p.m. - ESPN) Alabama (6-6)

Holiday December 28 Texas A&M (9-3) vs.
at San Diego (8:00 p.m. - ESPN) California (9-3)

Texas ^ December 28 Kansas St (7-5) vs.
at Houston (8:00 p.m. - NFL) Rutgers (10-2)

Music City December 29 Clemson (8-4) vs.
at Nashville, Tennessee (1:00 p.m. - ESPN) Kentucky (7-5)

Sun December 29 Oregon St (9-4) vs.
at El Paso, Texas (2:00 p.m. - CBS) Missouri (8-4)

Liberty December 29 South Carolina (7-5) vs.
at Memphis (4:30 p.m. - ESPN) Houston (10-3)

Insight December 29 Texas Tech (7-5) vs.
at Phoenix (7:30 p.m. - NFL) Minnesota (6-6)

Champs Sports December 29 Purdue (8-5) vs.
at Orlando, Florida (8:00 p.m. - ESPN) Maryland (8-4)

Meineke Car Care December 30 Navy (9-3) vs.
at Charlotte, No Carolina (1:00 p.m. - ESPN) Boston College (9-3)

Alamo December 30 Texas (9-3) vs.
at San Antonio (4:30 p.m. - ESPN) Iowa (6-6)

Chick-fil-A # December 30 Georgia (8-4) vs.
at Atlanta (8:00 p.m. - ESPN) Virginia Tech (10-2)

MPC Computers December 31 Miami Fl (6-6) vs.
at Boise, Idaho (7:30 p.m. - ESPN) Nevada (8-4)

Outback January 1 Penn St (8-4) vs.
at Tampa, Florida (11:00 a.m. - ESPN) Tennessee (9-3)

Cotton January 1 Auburn (10-2) vs.
at Dallas (11:30 a.m. - FOX) Nebraska (9-4)

Gator January 1 Georgia Tech (9-4) vs.
at Jacksonville, Florida (1:00 p.m. - CBS) West Virginia (10-2)

Capital One January 1 Arkansas (10-3) vs.
at Orlando, Florida (1:00 p.m. - ABC) Wisconsin (11-1)

Rose January 1 Michigan (11-1) vs.
at Pasadena, California (5:00 p.m. - ABC) USC (10-2)

Fiesta January 1 Boise St (12-0) vs.
at Phoenix, Arizona (8:30 p.m. - FOX) Oklahoma (11-2)

Orange January 2 Louisville (11-1) vs.
at Miami, Florida (8:00 p.m. - FOX) Wake Forest (11-2)

Sugar January 3 Notre Dame (10-2) vs.
at New Orleans, Louisiana (8:00 p.m. - FOX) LSU (10-2)

** International ~ January 6 Western Michigan (8-4) vs.
at Toronto, Ontario (12:00 p.m. - ESPN2) Cincinnati (7-5) **

GMAC January 7 Ohio (9-4) vs.
at Mobile, Alabama (8:00 p.m. - ESPN) Southern Mississippi (8-5)

BCS National Championship January 8 Florida (12-1) vs.
at Glendale, Arizona (8:00 p.m. - FOX) Ohio St (12-0)

** A first, interesting.

[Crim]

Originally Posted by gold101

OSU 35 Florida 14

Maybe, maybe not. Remember when the Luckeyes were prohibitive underdogs going into the Miami game? That team won all year on guts, luck, and breakdowns by their opponents. Exactly what the Gators have been doing this year... I just hope we don't have to rely on a bullshit phantom pass interference call at the end of the game like Ohio State did that year.

[HerRealName]

Originally Posted by Crim

Here's how it works:
....
5) The nation bemoans another split championship, and a cacophany of "playoffs" arises anew.

Now let it be said, I'm a huge Gator fan, but this is exactly the scenario I'm hoping for: My team wins the NC, and the BCS is dealt another blow. Won't be enough to bring it down as an institution, but maybe if we keep chipping away...

I for one would certainly not begrudge the Wolvies for sharing a title, it is a specious argument at best that my team deserved the title chance more.

I still don't see how the media could justify voting a one loss Michigan number one over a one loss OSU given the head to head results.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

No I think the pressure of winning the national championship will be enough.

Hell, it appeared to me that the pressure of just having a chance to get to the national championship game got to them quite a bit last night.

[HerRealName]

Originally Posted by Crim

I just hope we don't have to rely on a bullshit phantom pass interference call at the end of the game like Ohio State did that year.

Bad officiating is the only reason why OSU didn't win that game in regulation.

[VPI97]

Originally Posted by HerRealName

Unbelievably horrible officiating and/or paid off officials is the only reason why Miami didn't win that game.

Fixed.

[MylesKnight]

Notre Dame in a BCS Game???

[MJ4H]

One of the differences between the Big 10 and SEC is the championship game. I believe it's one reason why the SEC champ is deserving of a little more respect than someone out of the Big 10. The SEC teams have to put it on the line one more time than the Big 10 team.

Why was Michigan punished for sitting at home? They didn't lose? I hear that all the time. Sitting at home = NO CHANCE to lose. Florida goes on the field and risks that loss. That is where a significant bump comes from. I say if the Big 10 doesn't like it, they should get a championship game. It is a big boost for the team that wins it (it's also a huge hit to the team that loses it).

Conferences that don't have championship games shouldn't complain about teams passing them while they are on vacation. That's just my opinion.

[VPI97]

Originally Posted by MattJones4Heisman

Conferences that don't have championship games shouldn't complain about teams passing them while they are on vacation. That's just my opinion.

Mine too.

[Crim]

Thanks for posting those bowl matchups, tucker rocky. A few stand out to me:

Hawaii (10-3) vs.Arizona St (7-5)

This oughta be a fun one to watch. Go Hawaii!

Florida St (6-6) vs.UCLA (7-5)

Never have I rooted for UCLA this hard. Go Bruins!

Oklahoma St (6-6) vs. Alabama (6-6)

aka the "We Don't Deserve This Bowl Bowl." Go alternate programming!

Miami Fl (6-6) vs. Nevada (8-4)

I don't recall ever especially caring about the fortunes of Nevada before, but I hope they leave an indelible mark on Miami for years. Beat 'em like LSU did last year!

Penn St (8-4) vs. Tennessee (9-3)

Now this is a very interesting matchup to me. Think I'm leaning toward the Vols here.

Auburn (10-2) vs. Nebraska (9-4)

Another neat matchup. Go Tigers, beat the Callahans!

[mtolson]

Originally Posted by VPI97

Mine too.

But those teams have no control over the fact that they don't have a championship. They should get punished because the conference doesn't have enough teams for a championship either.

[Crim]

Originally Posted by MylesKnight

Notre Dame in a BCS Game???

See? Told ya the system's broken.

[VPI97]

Originally Posted by mtolson

But those teams have no control over the fact that they don't have a championship. They should get punished because the conference doesn't have enough teams for a championship either.

Yes they do. The Big 10 has had a ton of opportunities to add another team. If Michigan wants to blame someone for losing a Champ game bid because they didn't play yesterday, they should look no further than themselves, the other 10 teams in the conference and the conference commissioner for letting other conferences get an edge.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by MylesKnight

Notre Dame in a BCS Game???

I ain't exactly wild about the Irish either, BUT they're a composite #9 in the computer polls, higher than their T10th/11th rankings in the human polls.

By all measures they're a legitimate BCS team.

[MJ4H]

Besides, a factor being out of a team's control is not an argument that the factor should not be considered. After all, a team has no control over how the other teams on their schedule perform the rest of the year, yet that is a huge factor.

[Crim]

Besides, those bastitches can't even count. How does the Big 10 have 11 teams, anyhow?!?

Sorry, I almost broke my foot off in that dead horse...

[Kodos]

It is pathetic that college football doesn't have a playoff system. Really mars the sport.

[cmp]

33 coaches changed their vote and moved Florida ahead of Michigan this week, that is crazy.

[kcchief19]

Originally Posted by HerRealName

I still don't see how the media could justify voting a one loss Michigan number one over a one loss OSU given the head to head results.

Just ask youself how the media could justify voting Florida ahead of Michigan after Michigian didn't even play. It's the same politics that boosted Florida over Michigan in the polls this week to the title game ... the same voters who didn't want a rematch and voted Florida over Michigan will vote Michigan over Florida because they think Michigan got hosed by being left out of it. The same thing would happen if it was reversed. When there are three teams involved, you can't have a consensus national champion.

The moment the current system makes sense to you is the the first sign of senility.

[JPhillips]

I can't believe I'm defending Michigan, but here I go.

We aren't talking about Michigan not playing a big game. They played a Big Ten Championship game against Ohio State. What we're talking about is a game against Western Carolina. That's really the big difference in schedules here.

Look at the non-conference games for both teams.

Michigan: Vanderbilt, Central Michigan and Notre Dame.
Two cupcakes and a BCS team.

Florida: Southern Miss, Central Florida and Western Carolina.
Three cupcakes, one of them in November.

Conference schedules are beyond the control of any team, but Florida doesn't have a worthwhile non-conference game and even played a directional school in November. Michigan scheduled more difficult opponents where they had control. And while Florida played an exhibition against Western Carolina the Wolverines were playing the number one team in the country in what was in effect a Big Ten Championship game.

[MJ4H]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

They played a Big Ten Championship game against Ohio State.

No, they played a regular season game against Ohio State.

[MJ4H]

Originally Posted by kcchief19

Just ask youself how the media could justify voting Florida ahead of Michigan after Michigian didn't even play.

I'm definitely more impressed with a team that goes out on Saturday and puts their record on the line than one that sits at home and watches them.

[VPI97]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Conference schedules are beyond the control of any team, but Florida doesn't have a worthwhile non-conference game and even played a directional school in November.

That's because the SEC is head and shoulders above the Big 10. Michigan had to go out of conference to get a win over a BCS team...UF got one of those from their conference schedule.

[JPhillips]

Yes and no. If there wasn't a two team rule Wisconsin would surely be a BCS team. They're number seven in the final poll.

[Brian Swartz]

Except of course that Wisconsin(whom Michigan beat) would BE a BCS team were it not for the arbitrary and pointless rule against 3 teams from one conference.

I'm definitely more impressed with a team that goes out on Saturday and puts their record on the line than one that sits at home and watches them.

I think it's silly to judge a team based on how many games they played. Ask yourself whether Michigan's performance against OSU or Florida's against Arkansas(or any other game in the last two months, for that matter) was more noteworthy.

[HerRealName]

Wisconsin's record is more of an indicator that the Big Ten is completely awful than it is an indication of Big Ten strength.

Edit.. I meant to add that when the Big Ten is good, it is extremely difficult for teams to survive the conference schedule without some losses, just like the SEC this year. Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio State making it through the Big Ten schedule only losing to each other shows how pitiful the Big Ten is this year. And I'm a big Big Ten fan.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

I ain't exactly wild about the Irish either, BUT they're a composite #9 in the computer polls, higher than their T10th/11th rankings in the human polls.

By all measures they're a legitimate BCS team.

Sorry, can't agree. The season has now ended without them having beaten a team that is currently ranked in the top 25. The GT win to start the season got progressively less impressive over the last month and a half.

Below is a list of teams that are not playing in a BCS game, that I would feel confident would beat ND on a neutral field or in South Bend:

West Virginia, Oklahoma, Auburn, Texas, Rutgers, Wisconsin, Arkansas.

Look, I understand why ND is in a BCS game, and that's fine. But it would be a lot easier to handle if people would stop trying to sell how they "deserve" it on a football-only basis when we all know it's the money that matters.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by kcchief19

Just ask youself how the media could justify voting Florida ahead of Michigan after Michigian didn't even play.

Unless I've miscounted, Michigan is 2-1 against teams in the BCS top 25.
With yesterday's win, Florida is now 3-1 against teams in the BCS top 25.

Florida also has now beaten 4 teams that had wins over a BCS top 25 team.
Michigan victims combined for 0 wins over BCS top 25 teams.

Combined those facts with Florida becoming champion of what is still the toughest conference in the country, there's more than ample reason to have re-evaluated and made the correct call for the final poll.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Logan

But it would be a lot easier to handle if people would stop trying to sell how they "deserve" it on a football-only basis when we all know it's the money that matters.

I have my own criticisms of the computer polls, but darned if I knew any of them had a "butts in seats" component.

[Cuckoo]

Originally Posted by Logan

Below is a list of teams that are not playing in a BCS game...

...Oklahoma...

See what happens when you play Boise State. Everyone forgets about you.

[Brian Swartz]

The butts-in-seats component is herein and herein contained within the 2 teams only per conference no matter what rule.

I find myself unimpressed with Florida's barely-wins against bad teams such as Georgia, Florida State, and Vanderbilt enough not to be over-awed by the SEC. But that's just me. .

[Craptacular]

I hate Notre Dame as much as the next guy, but if you look at the BCS standings, who should have gotten in instead of them? Every eligible team ranked higher than them is in a BCS bowl. I have no problems arguing against the rule limiting a conference to two teams, which keeps Auburn and Wisconsin out, but otherwise, there aren't really any teams that have a better claim than Notre Dame.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

I have my own criticisms of the computer polls, but darned if I knew any of them had a "butts in seats" component.

And Rutgers was 3rd in the computers after the Louisville win...and even I wasn't delusional enough to think we were the 3rd best team in the country.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by Craptacular

I hate Notre Dame as much as the next guy, but if you look at the BCS standings, who should have gotten in instead of them? Every eligible team ranked higher than them is in a BCS bowl. I have no problems arguing against the rule limiting a conference to two teams, which keeps Auburn and Wisconsin out, but otherwise, there aren't really any teams that have a better claim than Notre Dame.

Which ND wins impressed you?

Their final rankings are still as a result of their lofty preseason #2 ranking, which is why many of us want those polls to not be unveiled until later in the season.

[JPhillips]

The BCS needs to be customizable.

[MJ4H]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

I think it's silly to judge a team based on how many games they played. Ask yourself whether Michigan's performance against OSU or Florida's against Arkansas(or any other game in the last two months, for that matter) was more noteworthy.

I'm going to approach this two different ways. Each is independent of the other.

1) Exaggerating to make my point, you don't think a team that has won 12 straight games is deserving of a higher ranking than a team that has won 4 straight? If you do think this, then your argument is out the window. It is just a smaller advantage with a smaller difference in number.

2) I am most decidedly NOT judging them based on the NUMBER of games they played, unless you mean 1 game vs. 0 games. I am judging based on the difference between the week before and this week, where one team put their record on the line and the other didn't. This is where ground was *MADE UP*. I am not referring to any cumulative effect here. This is in reference to the change in position from behind Michigan to in front of Michigan one week to the next. One team made up ground by playing and winning, one team stood still and watched with no risk.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Logan

And Rutgers was 3rd in the computers after the Louisville win...and even I wasn't delusional enough to think we were the 3rd best team in the country.

Which points out what might be the one of the things that keeps me from discounting the computer polls completely: the fact that they seem to make more sense at the end of the season than they do in midstream. Still not perfect by any means, but better at the end than in the middle.

[JPhillips]

I understand what you are saying, but what about the non-conference games. In effect Florida played Western Carolina while Michigan played Notre Dame. That's really where the big difference lies.

Why does Florida/Arkansas mean more than OSU/Michigan? That's another question that needs to be answered. On OSU/Michigan weekend Florida played Western Carolina. Would Florida still be deserving of moving ahead of Michigan if the schedule was changed so the Arkansas game was on the 18th and Western Carolina was yesterday?

Saying Florida has an extra game is misleading because they also had an extra gimme in November.

[Arles]

I think the conference championship cuts both ways. While a team like Michigan or USC can sit at home and risk nothing, a team like Oklahoma or Florida often has to beat another top 10 or atleast top 25 team. Now, if they need that win to be equal to a tougher schedule by a Pac-10/Big 10 team (a la USC and their 4 BCS wins), that's one thing. However, going into this weekend,

Michigan had wins against #7 and #11 in the BCS, and a loss against #1
Florida had wins against #4 and #17 in the BCS, and a loss against #9

Both have similar SOS with Michigan having the "better loss" but Florida had the "better win".

So, given it was essentially a toss up by numbers, it seems those that want Michigan would like the following:

1. The Michigan-OSU game to be meaningless.
2. The Florida-Arkansas SEC title game to be meaningless.

By voting Michigan at No. 2, you would be essentially making arguably the top 2 regular season games mean nothing. Given how close Michigan and Florida were before the game, I can't see a scenerio where Florida should not get a title chance if they clearly beat the No. 8 team in the country. After all, had Florida lost, they certainly would not have had a shot at the championship.

[MJ4H]

Florida/Arkansas didn't mean more than OSU/Michigan. It meant more than Michigan vs. naptime. Before this weekend they were already pretty close. Florida did something to make up that ground while Michigan just sat there.

[molson]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Would Florida still be deserving of moving ahead of Michigan if the schedule was changed so the Arkansas game was on the 18th and Western Carolina was yesterday?

Interesting point, but Florida would still have had more quality wins than Michigan under your scenario.

[Galaxy]

One solution: Florida vs. Michigan. Winner goes to the title game. As much of a supporter of the bowl system (more of the old bowl/conference system though), I think something needs to be done.