NFL Week 9: Origins

[Matthean]

Originally Posted by Eaglesfan27

Yep and it isn't even close when you look at the stats. Elway's best season during the same part of his career he had a QB rating of 83.4 and his worst season he had a rating of 54.9. He was in the 70's most of those years. Big Ben's worst season was a 75.4 and his best is a 104.1 which is a mark that Elway never hit. Big Ben has broken 100 twice, Elways has never broken that mark even once. In fact, Big Ben was at 98.6 two of his other years. Elway never even has reached that mark. In Elway's best season, his QB rating was only 93. Big Ben has been more efficient, and he has made big plays in the clutch.

To add, after year six Ben's average rating is 90.9. Elway had yet to hit 84. Period. Elway had better numbers later in his career as he had a running game by then, but still only broke 90 twice. The divide is lesser overall because Elway ran so much, but that's about it. Heck, there have been articles that the QB class of 2004 beat out the class of 1983 at least so far in terms of the first three picks.

[Crapshoot]

Originally Posted by Eaglesfan27

True. But, it is worth at least comparing him to Elway. I think even with that being considered, Big Ben comes out favorably or at least even in the comparison if you look at the early part of both careers. It certainly isn't ridiculous to compare them.

Exactly. I didn't use QB rating because of what Atocep cited, but I'd love to see the measure other than "grits and guts" that tells us Elway was better through this point in his career than Big Ben has been.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Crapshoot

Exactly. I didn't use QB rating because of what Atocep cited, but I'd love to see the measure other than "grits and guts" that tells us Elway was better through this point in his career than Big Ben has been.

Well, both DVOA and DYAR have had Big Ben pegged as league average up until this season. This season, however, he's played very well it he's ranked 5th and 6th among quarterbacks in those two stats so far.

[MikeVic]

Ben's been great this year. I'd like to see them win the Super Bowl on a very good performance by him. That would make QB discussions very interesting I think. I also think Brady and Manning also win at least one more Super Bowl each. I'm loving the NFL right now.

[Eaglesfan27]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Well, both DVOA and DYAR have had Big Ben pegged as league average up until this season. This season, however, he's played very well it he's ranked 5th and 6th among quarterbacks in those two stats so far.

I admit I don't understand that too much of what goes into those stats, but Big Ben has been top 5 in QB rating 4 of his first 6 seasons. He's was 2nd in 2007. Elway never was higher than 11th compared to his peers in his first 6 years and he was in the bottom 3 his rookie year. He was in the bottom half of the league 3 of his other comparable years.

[Daimyo]

Originally Posted by Eaglesfan27

Big Ben has never had an elite receiver either.

I don't know what qualifies as elite, but I think Big Ben has had one of the best WR situations over the last 8 years. He started off with Hines Ward, Plaxico Buress, and Randel-El and now he has Ward and Santonio Holmes.

Combine that with almost always having a strong run game, good defense and good coaching and I think there are few quarterbacks in the league who have been in friendlier situations than Big Ben.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Daimyo

I don't know what qualifies as elite, but I think Big Ben has had one of the best WR situations over the last 8 years. He started off with Hines Ward, Plaxico Buress, and Randel-El and now he has Ward and Santonio Holmes.

Combine that with almost always having a strong run game, good defense and good coaching and I think there are few quarterbacks in the league who have been in friendlier situations than Big Ben.

I'd agree. I think more than any of the other "elite name" QB's that Big Ben has been asked to do less with more. It seems like a lot of the time he is just asked to not make mistakes unlike someone like Payton/Brady/Brees who is asked to win the game without a strong running game, or with a defense that is lacking.

Not to say he couldn't win games on his own, but he is rarely asked to do that or given the opportunity to demonstrate that like say Brees/Brady/Manning/whoever else.

my personal perception of him has always been "he's a good game manager type qb." it always seems to me that the Steelers win a lot of games "ugly." You may see Big Ben up there in QB rating for example due to his efficiency and the short passing game, but you'll rarely see him with the 300+ yard passing games and 4 TD's like you will the other "big name" qb's.

[Aylmar]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

You may see Big Ben up there in QB rating for example due to his efficiency and the short passing game

Among active QBs, Ben is second in yards per attempt over his career, and is tied with Brees for the league lead in that category this season. I don't think that really qualifies as a "short" passing game, does it? Or are you saying it's all YAC?

[fantom1979]

Originally Posted by Aylmar

Among active QBs, Ben is second in yards per attempt over his career, and is tied with Brees for the league lead in that category this season. I don't think that really qualifies as a "short" passing game, does it? Or are you saying it's all YAC?

This would actually not point to a longer passing game. If you have one QB completing 65% of his passes and another QB completing 55% of his passes, the yards per ATTEMPT will probably come out better for the more accurate QB, even if the 55% QB is throwing the ball more down field.

Just as an example, in 2002 Chad Pennington had a 7.8 Y/A, while Daunte Culpepper in 2004 with 4700 yards, had a 7.1 Y/A.

If you really want to see how far down field your QB is chucking it, you would have to take ((team receiving yards - team yac yards)/team passing completions) to get a true gauge.

[DaddyTorgo]

I also think Ben throws it much less than many other top-qb's so his YPA is bound to be higher because he'll hit a couple big passes a game and a underneath-type stuff.

Seems to me it's not uncommon to see Brady/Brees/Manning having 34/46 350yd 4td" days and when you come to Big Ben it's "20/28, 235yds, 2td"

But I freely admit that was an impression I first got a couple years ago when it was more true...maybe it's changed significantly now? i don't have any stats to back it up, i'm just talking about my perception.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Ben is definitely throwing a lot more, and downfield a lot more, this year (and last?) than before that.

[fantom1979]

	Y/G	A/G
2004	187.2	21.1
2005	198.8	22.3
2006	234.2	31.3
2007	210.3	26.9
2008	206.3	29.3
2009	286.9	32.8

[fantom1979]

Here are the top teams for yards per completed pass (yac excluded), basically is shows how far down field a QB is throwing the ball on average. (using the formula i mentioned a couple of posts up)

New Orleans Saints	8.7
New York Giants	7.5
Jacksonville Jaguars	7.4
New York Jets	7.4
Green Bay Packers	7.3
Cincinnati Bengals	7.2
San Diego Chargers	7.2
Atlanta Falcons	7.1
Pittsburgh Steelers	7.1
Houston Texans	6.9
Chicago Bears	6.9
Carolina Panthers	6.8
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	6.6
Indianapolis Colts	6.5
Philadelphia Eagles	6.4
Dallas Cowboys	6.3
Arizona Cardinals	6.1
Kansas City Chiefs	6.0
Baltimore Ravens	5.9
New England Patriots	5.8
Detroit Lions	5.8
Washington Redskins	5.7
San Francisco 49ers	5.7
Seattle Seahawks	5.7
Cleveland Browns	5.6
Denver Broncos	5.5
Tennessee Titans	5.4
Minnesota Vikings	5.4
Buffalo Bills	5.3
Miami Dolphins	5.1
Oakland Raiders	4.7
St. Louis Rams	4.6

[Aylmar]

Originally Posted by fantom1979

Here are the top teams for yards per completed pass, basically is shows how far down field a QB is throwing the ball on average. (using the formula i mentioned a couple of posts up)

Thanks for putting this together. By these numbers, then, Ben is still top ten in chucking the ball down the field. It's his gaudy completion percentage (still just a shade over 70) that is jacking up his YPA. Good to know.

[MikeVic]

I think Roethlisberger does what he has to, and I'm happy to have him as my QB. Out of the QBs out there, the only ones I'd feel as good or better with as my starter would be Brees, Peyton Manning, or Brady.

[fantom1979]

I would say that there are 6 or 7 guys that I would love as my starting QB. Just off the top of my head:

Peyton Manning
Tom Brady
Phillip Rivers
Ben Roethlisberger
Drew Brees

Honorable Mention: Aaron Rodgers... the guy is putting up pretty good stats for a guy that has a 2001 Houston Texan offensive line.

[Eaglesfan27]

Originally Posted by MikeVic

I think Roethlisberger does what he has to, and I'm happy to have him as my QB. Out of the QBs out there, the only ones I'd feel as good or better with as my starter would be Brees, Peyton Manning, or Brady.

Agreed. As for his WR's. is anyone really considering any of these guys elite? Brady has elite receivers with Moss and Welker. Montana had it with Rice. Manning with Harrison and Wayne. I'd argue Ben has never even had a top 10 WR. Ward does a lot of things well. but he is not one of the top receivers in the league and never really has been.