Predicting Movies

[TazFTW]

I would have said The Island wins this weekend because Bay movies bring in a good box office but the screen count is under 3000 and that's too few for my tastes.

I think Charlie will continue with $30 million, Bad News Bears with $28 million followed by The Island with $25 and the Wedding Crashes at $20-ish.

It goes against my which movie will I see this weekend theory but that is because I want to see The Island as well as Hustle and Flow which has gotten some pretty good reviews.

[Pyser]

im going with the island all the way. summer action movies have all done well this year, and its been a few weeks since one opened.

island: 36m
chocolate: 24m
bears: 21m

[JeffNights]

Shit, i think Hustle and Flow surprises and takes the top spot with 29Mil.

[TazFTW]

Rank*	Title (Click to view chart)	Friday 7/22 (Estimates)	Saturday 7/23	Sunday 7/24	Monday 7/25
1	CHARLIE AND THE CHOCOLATE FACTORY 3,790	$8,700,000 35.1% / $2,296 $94,506,000 / 8	N/A	N/A	N/A
2	WEDDING CRASHERS 2,925	$7,600,000 63.1% / $2,598 $62,301,000 / 8	N/A	N/A	N/A
3	THE ISLAND 3,122	$4,270,000 -- / $1,368 $4,270,000 / -6	N/A	N/A	N/A
4	BAD NEWS BEARS 3,183	$4,130,000 -- / $1,298 $4,130,000 / 1	N/A	N/A	N/A

[TazFTW]

Ouch, even Fantastic Four beat the two big newcomers.

TW	LW	Title (click to view)	Studio	Weekend Gross	% Change	Theater Count / Change		Average	Total Gross	Budget*	Week #
1	1	Charlie and the Chocolate Factory	WB	$28,300,000	-49.6%	3,790	+20	$7,467	$114,106,000	$150	2
2	2	Wedding Crashers	NL	$26,200,000	-22.7%	2,925	-	$8,957	$80,901,000	$40	2
3	3	Fantastic Four	Fox	$12,275,000	-46.1%	3,449	-170	$3,559	$122,560,000	$100	3
4	N	The Island	DW	$12,100,000	-	3,122	-	$3,875	$12,100,000	$122	1
5	N	Bad News Bears	Par.	$11,500,000	-	3,183	-	$3,612	$11,500,000	$35	1

[Pyser]

of all the weeks predicting so far, i am most surprised at the islands numbers. i guess bay needs bruckheimer more than he thought.

this weekend, sky high (which ive never heard of, but is getting over 2700 screens), stealth, and must love dogs opens. id stay away from stealth because it seems too similar to the island to me, except jaime foxx and biehl help it a lot. must love dogs opens, too, and we havent seen a romantic comedy come along in a while.

predictions in a few days, as i need to noodle this one.

[TazFTW]

Sky High is getting good reviews and it is a family film, so I say it grabs 1st with $30 million.

[Pyser]

im gonna go with must love dogs. i have no idea why. 23m.

[Pyser]

well ill be...

1. Wedding Crashers $20,475,000
2. Charlie and the Chocolate Factory $16,385,000
3. Sky High $14,590,000
4. Stealth $13,500,000
5. Must Love Dogs $13,050,000

[Swaggs]

Wow. With opening numbers like that, Stealth has the potential to be a major money-loser. I would have thought it might put up close to $30M to open.

[Pyser]

yeah, i think hollywood got its ass kicked with stealth and the island.

you know what that means: more remakes!

[Swaggs]

It is funny.

Yesterday I went, with the wife, to see "Must Love Dogs" (it was pretty decent). We saw the trailer for "The Corpse Bride," a dark animated movie by Tim Burton. I think it may be the only original idea for a movie that I have seen in the past few years.

[TazFTW]

The Dukes of Hazard will take first! $27 million.

[Pyser]

ive been slacking. sorry.

dukes at 23m.

[Pyser]

dukes made 30m. la dee da. on we go.

this week:

deuce bigalow 2
four brothers
skeleton key
great raid (limited)

[TazFTW]

Interesting... It looks like Deuce will have the bigger screen count but I don't see people going to Deuce in droves. Skeleton Key is the suspense/horror flick but I don't think they've done well this year. Four Brothers is a John Singleton flick and it has Marky Mark, Tyrese, and Andre 3000 of Outkast. It also has Terrence Howard, who is en fuego.

I think I'll go with Four Brothers taking it with $25 million, followed by Skeleton Key at $22 million, Dukes with $18 million, and Deuce with $17 mil.

[Pyser]

im going deuce, 21m.

[TazFTW]

I got the order of the first 3 right.

1	N	Four Brothers	Par.	$20,700,000	-	2,533	-	$8,172	$20,700,000	$45	1
2	N	The Skeleton Key	Uni.	$15,795,000	-	2,771	-	$5,700	$15,795,000	$43	1
3	1	The Dukes of Hazzard	WB	$13,030,000	-57.5%	3,785	-	$3,442	$57,478,000	$50	2
4	2	Wedding Crashers	NL	$12,025,000	-25.0%	3,131	+25	$3,840	$164,051,000	$40	5
5	N	Deuce Bigalow: European Gigolo	Sony	$9,400,000	-	3,127	-	$3,006	$9,400,000	$22	1

[Karlifornia]

Geez...what the hell is going on with wedding crashers? They made a $120 dollar profit already. Geez.

[Pyser]

this week:

supercross
40 yr old virgin
red eye
valiant


if valiant was on more screens, it'd be a win. instead, ill go 40 yr old virgin at 27m.

[TazFTW]

40 yr old wins it with $26 million.

[Pyser]

results:

1. The 40-Year-Old Virgin $20,555,000
2. Red Eye $16,500,000
3. Four Brothers $13,000,000

[Pyser]

this week:

The Brothers Grimm 3,087
The Cave 2,195



both look like ass to me. ill take a chance, and say 40 yr old virgin repeats at 18m.

[TazFTW]

I agree.

[Pyser]

sweet.

1. The 40-Year-Old Virgin $16,434,000
2. The Brothers Grimm $15,093,000
3. Red Eye $10,400,000

[Pyser]

2 awful release weeks in a row. makes me wonder why they didnt hold something like "Crash" till now, for both box office and oscar support.

Aug. 31 Theaters
The Constant Gardener 1,300

Sep. 2 Theaters
A Sound of Thunder 800
Transporter 2 3,200
Underclassman 1,200

im very tempted to go 40 year old virgin again, but instead ill go with new blood, just because my gut says virgin cant win 3 times in a row.

transporter - 16m.

[TazFTW]

I'll have to agree again.

[Pyser]

we're doing good now:

1. The Transporter $16,500,000
2. The 40-Year-Old Virgin $13,110,000

[Pyser]

another week of crap. i seriously dont know why some movies werent held for now. not blockbusters, but solid movies. maybe even hustle and flow?

Sep. 9 Theaters
The Exorcism of Emily Rose 2,981
The Man 1,800
An Unfinished Life 400


amazingly, if the man was opening bigger, id go with it. instead, exorcism of emily rose, 17m.

[TazFTW]

I don't see Emily Rose doing well, so I'll have to say Transporter 2 takes it again with $15 million.

[TazFTW]

Originally Posted by TazFTW

I don't see Emily Rose doing well, so I'll have to say Transporter 2 takes it again with $15 million.

Well, I couldn't be any more wrong.

[sterlingice]

There are just weeks like that sometimes.

Still, I love getting the weekly update from this thread so keep up the good work.

SI

[Pyser]

wow, good for emily rose. i think its just a matter of no good movies having come out for a few weeks...people had to see something.

1. The Exorcism of Emily Rose $30,200,000
2. The 40-Year-Old Virgin $7,901,000
3. Transporter 2 $7,200,000

[Pyser]

Sep. 16 Theaters
Cry Wolf 1,550
Just Like Heaven 3,000
Lord of War 2,400+
Venom 750+

[Buccaneer]

Am I the only one who never realized they did a Transporter 1?

[Pyser]

i actually went and saw transporter 2, even though ive never seen the first.

fun movie. improbable fight/car sequences, simple plot, and in and out in under 90 mins. pretty good stuff.

[TazFTW]

I'd probably have to go with Just Like Heaven with $26 million.

[Pyser]

i dont have much faith in just like heaven, but i suppose people have to see something. i think itll get 19m, edging out emily rose, with 17m.

[Pyser]

its easier to make predictions when we have all the movies being released. im sure taz will change his prediction, too.

Cry Wolf 1,790
Just Like Heaven 3,508
Lord of War 2,814
Venom 489
The Greatest Game Ever Played 749 sneaks on 9/17
An Unfinished Life 753


with that in mind, its lord of war. 24m.

[TazFTW]

Nope, not changing. Just Like Heaven is a romantic comedy and it has been a weeks since one was released.

[TazFTW]

Yup.

Rank*	Title (Click to view chart)	Friday 9/16 (Estimates)	Saturday 9/17	Sunday 9/18	Monday 9/19
1	JUST LIKE HEAVEN 3,508	$5,500,000 -- / $1,568 $5,500,000 / 1	N/A	N/A	N/A
2	THE EXORCISM OF EMILY ROSE 2,983	$4,800,000 215% / $1,609 $41,509,000 / 8	N/A	N/A	N/A
3	LORD OF WAR 2,814	$3,100,000 -- / $1,102 $3,100,000 / 1	N/A	N/A	N/A

[Pyser]

shouldve stuck to my guns.

WEEKEND ESTIMATES
1. Just Like Heaven $16,500,000
2. The Exorcism of Emily Rose $15,300,000
3. Lord of War $9,200,000

[Pyser]

way to hold flightplan, guys. not like there werent 4 dead weeks in a row a few weeks back. instead, let it swallowed up by corpse bride...

opening this week:

Flightplan 3,400
Roll Bounce 1,700
Tim Burton's The Corpse Bride 3,000


ill go corpse bride, at 27m.

[TazFTW]

Panic Room made $30 million its opening weekend. Flight Plan is similiar, so I'll say Flight Plan takes it with $28 million.

[Pyser]

i see where youre going with that, but it also had to post-fight club fincher enthusiasm going for it.

i cant bet against kids, though, myself, which is why i went with corpse.

[TazFTW]

w00t!

Rank*	Title (Click to view chart)	Friday 9/23 (Estimates)	Saturday 9/24	Sunday 9/25	Monday 9/26
1	FLIGHTPLAN 3,424	$8,500,000 -- / $2,482 $8,500,000 / 1	N/A	N/A	N/A
2	TIM BURTON'S CORPSE BRIDE 3,204	$6,800,000 23784% / $2,122 $7,311,000 / 8	N/A	N/A	N/A

[sterlingice]

Wow- I never would have guessed. I figured Corpse was a shoe-in.

SI

[Pyser]

i guess parents didnt view a movie called "corpse bride" as a childrens movie. who'd of thunk?! well done, taz.

WEEKEND ESTIMATES
1. Flightplan $24,646,000
2. Tim Burton's Corpse Bride $20,130,000

[Pyser]

ok...lets try and break my streak of 2 in a row on the wrong side...

The Greatest Game Ever Played 1,000
Into the Blue 2,700
Serenity 2,100+


im very interested to see how serenity does, just because its an entirely "fan brought back" movie...so i hope it kicks ass, just on principle. that said, you cant stop jessica alba, even in terrible, terrible movies...you can only hope to contain her.

into the blue - 22m

[TazFTW]

Jessica Alba and Ashley Scott...

wet...



I think Into the Blue will have to win. Serenity doesn't have the theatre count and Flightplan/Corpse Bride will do the usual 2nd week drop.

Into the Blue, $20 million.