(POL) Official Super Tuesday Thread

[Buccaneer]

God, I hate the thought of this again. Might as well put a picture of Bush/Cheney, it would have the same effect.

[Jas_lov]

John McCain wins New York and all of its delegates.

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by Buccaneer

God, I hate the thought of this again. Might as well put a picture of Bush/Cheney, it would have the same effect.

She triggers my gag reflex every time I see her. Ugh.

[Jas_lov]

Even though Obama has lost Mass and N.J and maybe Missouri, there's still Minnesota and Kansas where he's leading the very early results, the whole southwest, Utah, Montana, and California.

[Buccaneer]

Romney's "Debacle in the South" appears to be real. How much did he campaign there? Yankee Northeasterner just don't play well there.

[Jas_lov]

Barack Obama wins Alabama.

[Scoobz0202]

The almost landslide in Missouri is really the only thing that has kind of surprised me so far. And I am an Obama supporter. Going into these primaries he was close in Alabama, Colorado, Connecticut, and Missouri. He is leading in Connecticut and Alabama. And like I said, Missouri has kind of surprsied me. We got the whole western half of the nation though. Let's go California.

[RPI-Fan]

If Cali is a 50/50 split and everything else stays as it is right now (with the exception of the big city effect making Obama closer but not winning some states), I think we know absolutely no more than we did going into tonight. Which favors Obama, because as time goes on he has had a steady upward trend with not many blips.

[GrantDawg]

I can't help but think the Huckabee upsets in both wins and number 2 positions puts him in the power seat. Would he be willing to be a number 2 to either canidate? I really wonder. I have a feeling it would be hard for him to run with McCain, but he would have to throw a lot of support on Romney for the rest of the way (and very quicly) for it to make any difference for Mitt.

[Swaggs]

I'm surprised that Clinton appears to have won Mass. so easily. I thought the Kerry and Kennedy clan endorsements would make that a very tight one.

[Greyroofoo]

Originally Posted by Jas_lov

Barack Obama wins Alabama.

Not surprised since if only because I've seen Obama ads here and no Clinton ads.

[Buccaneer]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

I'm surprised that Clinton appears to have won Mass. so easily. I thought the Kerry and Kennedy clan endorsements would make that a very tight one.

Mass. Dems can talk about peace, love and brotherhood with the best of them but when it comes down to it, there are still some old-school issues.

[Jas_lov]

So far Hillary has 160 total delegates to Obama's 109, not counting super delegates.

So far John McCain has 291 delegates to Romney's 91 and Huckabee's 58.

[Jas_lov]

John McCain wins Oklahoma.

[Jas_lov]

Mitt Romney wins Utah.

[Jas_lov]

Barack Obama wins North Dakota.

[Jas_lov]

Barack Obama wins Utah.

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by Buccaneer

Mass. Dems can talk about peace, love and brotherhood with the best of them but when it comes down to it, there are still some old-school issues.

I agree. I see it everyday here.

[SirFozzie]

Romney had been trying to position himself as "A vote for Huckabee is a vote for McCain".. but from what I've seen.. Huckabee's done well, but any delegates he's taking would be from ROmney.

[Jas_lov]

Sounds like Huckabee is going to keep marching on.

[SirFozzie]

Love this note from Real Clear Politics:

9:13PM - A note to the media: Mike Huckabee is not dead. He's ahead narrowly in Missouri, has already won Arkansas, Alabama and West Virginia and looks competitive in Arizona. If today is a bad day for Mitt Romney, it's a great day for Huckabee. Of course, if the Republican race comes down to a McCain-Huckabee battle, Rush Limbaugh and Ann Coulter will be hurling themselves from windows later this evening. - REID WILSON

[Jas_lov]

Barack Obama wins Kansas.

[Jas_lov]

Fox News projects Barack Obama wins Connecticut.

[SackAttack]

Looks like it's been mostly the South and West for Obama versus mostly the Northeast for Hillary.

Sounds familiar somehow.

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

he would have to throw a lot of support on Romney for the rest of the way (and very quicly) for it to make any difference for Mitt.

There is no data to suggest that Huckabee voters would have voted for Romney if Huckabee wasn't in the race. Exit polling in Florida indicated that McCain was the second choice of the majority of Huckabee's voters.

In light of what has happened tonight, you could make a strong case that Romney is taking votes away from Huckabee.

[Jas_lov]

Of the states that haven't been called yet, Mike Huckabee is leading Georgia and Missouri over McCain, Barack Obama is leading Minnesota by a considerable margin, Mitt Romney is leading Minnesota over McCain. Hillary still up big in Missouri. Obama up big in Colorado and Idaho.

[Scoobz0202]

What states are still voting.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

Exit polling in Florida indicated that McCain was the second choice of the majority of Huckabee's voters.

I believe that's a case of people seriously trying to fuck with the exit pollers (which was an interesting topic of conversation on the Atlanta radio coverage tonight, by some of the more serious local analysts/straight news people, not the talkshow types).

I can't begin to imagine any Huckabee voter going with McCain over Romney for any reason other than the distrust of Mormon issue.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

There is no data to suggest that Huckabee voters would have voted for Romney if Huckabee wasn't in the race. Exit polling in Florida indicated that McCain was the second choice of the majority of Huckabee's voters.

In light of what has happened tonight, you could make a strong case that Romney is taking votes away from Huckabee.

I didn't say he was. I was discussing him as using his position as a running mate, if he was interested. I would guess if pushed he would rather run with Romney than McCain, but he could not possibily chose Romney unless he could somehow pull his support for Romney pretty quickly.

Of course, you put up another interesting thought. What if Romney decides he would rather be a running mate for Huckabee? Neither option is very likely, just wondering aloud.

[bhlloy]

So, anybody care to make a guess at where we are in the Democratic race heading into tomorrow?

As far as I can see, Obama is still in touch, but unless he wins CA by a couple of points at least, it's not a great night for him (or at least not as good as it looked like it was going to be when GA came in). Does that pretty much sum it up?

[Jas_lov]

Delegate Scorecard

Democratic
(Needed to win: 2,025)
Delegates
Clinton 443
Obama 376

Republican
(Needed to win: 1,191)
Delegates
McCain 337
Romney 133
Huckabee 85
Paul 4

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

I believe that's a case of people seriously trying to fuck with the exit pollers (which was an interesting topic of conversation on the Atlanta radio coverage tonight, by some of the more serious local analysts/straight news people, not the talkshow types).

I can't begin to imagine any Huckabee voter going with McCain over Romney for any reason other than the distrust of Mormon issue.

I think the Mormon issue is very big for a lot of Huckabee's voters. I know several southern conservative Christians that thought Mormonism is a cult and I can't imagine any of them voting for Romney.

[Jas_lov]

Mike Huckabee has won Georgia. He's also leading in Missouri and Tennessee.

[LloydLungs]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

So, anybody care to make a guess at where we are in the Democratic race heading into tomorrow?

As far as I can see, Obama is still in touch, but unless he wins CA by a couple of points at least, it's not a great night for him (or at least not as good as it looked like it was going to be when GA came in). Does that pretty much sum it up?

I think that's right. I think Obama would have been happy with this result a week ago, and he's definitely still in it, but the Obama camp probably had their hopes up for a little more given the feeling of momentum over the past couple of days.

NJ is into single digits now. Missouri is as well, but it's probably too little too late there. Obama will have won more overall states at the end of the night, but not most of the the big ones. Doesn't sound like California is going to happen from a percentage standpoint, although the delegate difference probably won't be too wide.

I think Hillary will end up eke-ing out the nomination, as I have from the beginning.

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

I didn't say he was. I was discussing him as using his position as a running mate, if he was interested. I would guess if pushed he would rather run with Romney than McCain, but he could not possibily chose Romney unless he could somehow pull his support for Romney pretty quickly.

Actually, I think that McCain and Huckabee actually like each other personally. They seem to have a cordial relationship, and I haven't heard any negative comments between them. On the other hand, both of these guys genuinely dislike Romney.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I know several southern conservative Christians that thought Mormonism is a cult and I can't imagine any of them voting for Romney.

I've battled with that for several days, had finally found a way to convince myself that it was an issue that could be handled ... and was then unexpectedly out of state for a funeral today and ended up not voting after all. {shrug}

[Glengoyne]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

Love this note from Real Clear Politics:

9:13PM - A note to the media: Mike Huckabee is not dead. He's ahead narrowly in Missouri, has already won Arkansas, Alabama and West Virginia and looks competitive in Arizona. If today is a bad day for Mitt Romney, it's a great day for Huckabee. Of course, if the Republican race comes down to a McCain-Huckabee battle, Rush Limbaugh and Ann Coulter will be hurling themselves from windows later this evening. - REID WILSON

Here's hoping it rains pundits.

[Jas_lov]

Barack Obama wins Minnesota. West coast polls including California close in 5 minutes.

[Buccaneer]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

Actually, I think that McCain and Huckabee actually like each other personally. They seem to have a cordial relationship, and I haven't heard any negative comments between them. On the other hand, both of these guys genuinely dislike Romney.

More than "both of these guys", you know?

[Swaggs]

Has Ron Paul given any indication as to whether or not he will continue on after tonight?

[Galaril]

I am really surprised at how Obama is kicking Clinton in the midwest/west states. I think if evrything goes it appears now and Obama can hang close in Cali it will really come down to Ohio and Texas which from tonight might favor Obama. Certainly Clinton will have figure out how to incorpoarte Obama into here team if she does take the Nomination.

[Jas_lov]

Barack Obama wins Idaho. Mitt Romney wins North Dakota.

[Jas_lov]

John McCain wins Arizona.

[JonInMiddleGA]

I can't help but chuckle at the graphic at foxnews.com which shows Romney as the projected winner in Utah with 0% of precincts reporting and 0 votes counted.

I understand it of course, I just got a giggle out of seeing it that way.

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

Has Ron Paul given any indication as to whether or not he will continue on after tonight?

Until such time as he decides to run as a Libertarian, he's got no reason not to continue in the Republican race. He's not hurting for funding, and the more delegates he can amass, the more clout he'll have if Huckabee or Romney can stay close to McCain.

[LloydLungs]

Obama has made up over 20,000 votes in Missouri over the last half hour or so. Still 20,000+ behind. Sounds like St. Louis County is coming in. Depends on how much is left.

[Warhammer]

Originally Posted by Galaril

I am really surprised at how Obama is kicking Clinton in the midwest/west states. I think if evrything goes it appears now and Obama can hang close in Cali it will really come down to Ohio and Texas which from tonight might favor Obama. Certainly Clinton will have figure out how to incorpoarte Obama into here team if she does take the Nomination.

With the crap that has gone back and forth between them behind the scenes, I can't see how he takes a spot on her team.

[mauchow]

Clinton off to a hot start in Cali.

[Jas_lov]

Hillary Clinton wins Arizona. Obama within 5% in Missouri.

[Young Drachma]

He's gaining really fast in Missouri. Wow.