College Football Week 15 discussion (Conference Championship Week)

[VPI97]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

That's the kind of information that can provide us with a worthwhile discussion. Since you don't provide that, I assume you're not interested in having that discussion.

Meh...you're the one who said "the ACC is much worse than the Pac12" without providing any information to back up your opinion. Just following your lead, Chief.

[CU Tiger]

Chief,
I'm not attacking the PAc 12 at all.

Let's recap. Jon said that the ACC was clearly the worst of the P5 and the SEC and PAC12 were clearly the top 2. I said that I dont think THIS YEAR the ACC is inferior necessarily to any conference "by a mile"

Breeze said the PAC 12 South was better than either ACC Division.
I simply grabbed the final standings of both of SI and lined them up team against team. I wont argue if you feel the P12S is better than the ACC Atlantic. I dont think that is a crazy proposition. Nor do I think its crazy to suggest the ACC Atlantic is better than the P12S. I think they are equal. Which if they are even close to equal, then Jon's point that the ACC was clearly inferior is incorrect.

Now do we want to split hairs and argue individual games?
That is not my point. I'm talking overall aggregates. The ACC is severely underrated this year BY MANY(not all) because of their duly earned reputation from the past half decade.

[digamma]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

You're right, we're not talking about the SEC. Just noting the irony.

What was the ACC's record against those P5 teams? What was the Pac 12's record against P5 teams? What level of P5 teams are we talking about?

That's the kind of information that can provide us with a worthwhile discussion. Since you don't provide that, I assume you're not interested in having that discussion.

I had posted this in the thread from last week's games.

You seem to really be taking this as an attack on the Pac 12, when the only point I've been making is the separation between the top five conferences isn't as great as people seem to think.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

FSU RB out for ACC Championship game.

Karlos Williams of Florida State Seminoles out of ACC championship game with concussion - ESPN

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by VPI97

Meh...you're the one who said "the ACC is much worse than the Pac12" without providing any information to back up your opinion. Just following your lead, Chief.

Yes, I would agree I fell back on the conventional thinking and what others like JIMG said without providing information. But it is my thinking that that is the consensus media opinion is it not? And that the rankings used do rate the Pac12 higher than the ACC?

I didn't provide information because I thought that was the status quo. Since you were arguing against that status quo, I would expect you to provide the information showing that is true.

Would you agree that the public opinion and that the computer rankings generally support the idea that the Pac12 has been stronger this year than the ACC (regardless of an actual comparison)?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by CU Tiger

Chief,
I'm not attacking the PAc 12 at all.

Let's recap. Jon said that the ACC was clearly the worst of the P5 and the SEC and PAC12 were clearly the top 2. I said that I dont think THIS YEAR the ACC is inferior necessarily to any conference "by a mile"

Breeze said the PAC 12 South was better than either ACC Division.
I simply grabbed the final standings of both of SI and lined them up team against team. I wont argue if you feel the P12S is better than the ACC Atlantic. I dont think that is a crazy proposition. Nor do I think its crazy to suggest the ACC Atlantic is better than the P12S. I think they are equal. Which if they are even close to equal, then Jon's point that the ACC was clearly inferior is incorrect.

Now do we want to split hairs and argue individual games?
That is not my point. I'm talking overall aggregates. The ACC is severely underrated this year BY MANY(not all) because of their duly earned reputation from the past half decade.

I think it comes down to semantics. For instance, your read might be that Jon is saying the ACC is worst by a mile, when he actually doesn't believe the ACC is that much worse. That's the thing with Internet arguments; people approach things with their own takes on what others believe, but there is often much lost in translation.

Consider that it is possible, for instance, that the ACC is very close to the quality of the Pac12 (statistically), but could still be the worst of the Power 5 conferences.

As for your point, it's entirely possible the ACC is severely underrated. I just don't agree with the method to show that. For instance, putting USC second on the list puts a side by side comparison completely in question. And that's even besides differences of opinion on the relative value of those teams.

As to the individual games thing, that wasn't me (just responding to it). I despise that sort of approach and is the primary reason I seem to be arguing so much on this (has nothing to do with the Pac 12 other than that hooked me into the conversation). I can't stand illogical argumentation, so when someone throws out head to head results without context and provides little else on a more macro scale, it's extremely frustrating for me attempting to respond to someone who argues like that.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by digamma

I had posted this in the thread from last week's games.

You seem to really be taking this as an attack on the Pac 12, when the only point I've been making is the separation between the top five conferences isn't as great as people seem to think.

Thanks digamma. Those stats back up my belief that the ACC leads in Power 5 OOC wins because of the sheer number they played, not on percentage (which was indeed led by the Pac 12). Although it should be noted, the ACC had the second best record against P5 teams, so that goes to CU Tiger's point of them being severely underrated.

FWIW, I actually personally thought the ACC was a stronger conference this season than the B1G, and those numbers seem to back that up.

If I seem particularly strident on this matter, just so you know, it's not because of the Pac 12 link. That just looped me into the conversation as a Pac 12 supporter. My argumentative responses are at the level they are because of my frustration with the evidentiary method being used to support counter arguments, which is a personal bugaboo for me.

It's like arguing with someone who uses batting average and RBIs to give a guy an MVP over another player with better production in more accurate (performance wise) but less recognized stats. Not saying you're doing this, just noting that is the quality of responses I feel I have been getting in this discussion. Thanks for providing actual records.

[HomerSimpson98]

Well, at least we can all agree that the Big12 sucks donkey

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by CU Tiger

I said that I dont think THIS YEAR the ACC is inferior necessarily to any conference "by a mile"

There's been an awful lot of really shitty football played by an awful lot of ACC teams this year.

Nor do I think its crazy to suggest the ACC Atlantic is better than the P12S. I think they are equal. Which if they are even close to equal, then Jon's point that the ACC was clearly inferior is incorrect.

Aside from FSU, I don't think anybody in the Atlantic sticks with the top 4 teams in the P12S. CU could, perhaps, if Watson plays but if it's Stoudt then I'd be surprised if you stayed within 2 TD's of them. And I think L'ville would get exposed, big time. The rest of the Atlantic? A fluke win here or there is always a possibility (like BC) but not more than 1 in 4 games against their counterparts.

In short, yeah, I think suggesting that the division (aside from FSU) is better is pretty crazy & that suggesting they are even close to equal isn't the sanest thing I've ever heard either.

But I still love ya

The ACC is severely underrated this year BY MANY(not all) because of their duly earned reputation from the past half decade.

I'm actually coming from the opposite standpoint, I think this year is overall considerably worse than my recollection of any in a long time. If I were dinging the conference based on the past 5 years (or any other timespan) then I'd be less shocked at how bad I think this year really is.

[Arles]

So, since BC beat USC (after 3000 miles of travel) and now is a similar team - does that mean Virginia Tech (who traveled TO Ohio State and won) is a similar team to Ohio State? Or, do we as reasonable people, take a look at the body of work and decide based on that?

Using Sagarin (and I'm fine to use another CPU), BC lost to Pitt (#53), Colorado St (#47), Louisville (29) Clemson (25) and FSU (17). Their wins are USC (19), Virginia Tech (50), NC State (58), Syracuse (97), Wake (127), UMASS (143), and Maine (193).

USC lost to BC (43), Utah (31), Arizona State (24) and UCLA (20). They beat Arizona (23), Stanford (27), Notre Dame (36), Cal (52), Wash St (73), Oregon St (75), Colorado (86) and Fresno St (93).

Pretty big difference in the wins. Just looking at the rankings in general:
USC (19) -> FSU (17)
UCLA (20) -> Clemson (25)
Arizona (23) -> Louisville (29)
Arizona St (24) -> BC (43)
Utah (31) -> NC St (58)
Colorado (86) -> Syracuse (97)
------------- -> Wake Forest (127)

In the top 3, it's comparable. Comparing the whole divisions - it's night and day. All but 1 are in the top 31 in the Pac 12 South while 4 teams in the ACC Atlantic are over 40 (with 2 in or near the 100s).

[VPI97]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Yes, I would agree I fell back on the conventional thinking and what others like JIMG said without providing information. But it is my thinking that that is the consensus media opinion is it not? And that the rankings used do rate the Pac12 higher than the ACC?

I didn't provide information because I thought that was the status quo. Since you were arguing against that status quo, I would expect you to provide the information showing that is true.

Would you agree that the public opinion and that the computer rankings generally support the idea that the Pac12 has been stronger this year than the ACC (regardless of an actual comparison)?

Of course the PAC-12 is stronger than the ACC, but that's not what you said. You said, "the ACC is much worse than the Pac12". Semantics, sure, and certainly open to interpretation as to what you meant with the "much" modifier, but computer conference rankings generally put the difference between the PAC-12 and the ACC as less than the difference between the SEC and the PAC-12, so yeah, I think "much worse" is too harsh. Now it just looks like you're trying to backtrack on the hyperbolic nature of "much worse".

(Composite conference computer rankings - bottom and way to the right for the mean scores)
College Football Ranking Composite

Fwiw and for the record, I think ACC Atlantic = PAC-12 South in terms of strength and the only difference between the ACC Coastal and the PAC-12 North is Oregon. Big difference, sure, but one that can be changed if VT or Miami get their act in gear the next few years.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by VPI97

Fwiw and for the record, I think ACC Atlantic = PAC-12 South in terms of strength and the only difference between the ACC Coastal and the PAC-12 North is Oregon. Big difference, sure, but one that can be changed if VT or Miami get their act in gear the next few years.

I'm not sure what you mean by "=", but the fourth place team in the Atlantic (BC at 43) wouldn't even rank in the top 6 in the Pac 12 (Utah at 31). The Pac 12 South has one team not in the top 40 (Colorado at 86). The Atlantic has 4 and two sub 90. But, outside of that, I guess they are equal.

[VPI97]

Originally Posted by Arles

I'm not sure what you mean by "=", but the fourth place team in the Atlantic (BC at 43) wouldn't even rank in the top 6 in the Pac 12 (Utah at 31). The Pac 12 South has one team not in the top 40 (Colorado at 86). The Atlantic has 4 and two sub 90. But, outside of that, I guess they are equal.

"=" means "equal to", but you knew that.

While Sagarin's ratings has it's merits, so do other ratings systems. And rather than cherry pick one that put FSU in the top 4 (general consensus), I'll go with pure stats driven Football Outsiders that throws out garbage time plays and possessions:

USC (23) -> FSU (16)
UCLA (28) -> Clemson (14)
Arizona (44) -> Louisville (15)
Arizona St (30) -> BC (32)
Utah (60) -> NC St (55)
Colorado (86) -> Syracuse (83)
------------- -> Wake Forest (110)

Looks pretty equal to me.

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | 2014 NCAA FOOTBALL S&P+ RATINGS

[digamma]

Not too many Yellow Jacket fans on a flight from Los Angeles to Charlotte. Shocking, I know.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by VPI97

Of course the PAC-12 is stronger than the ACC, but that's not what you said. You said, "the ACC is much worse than the Pac12". Semantics, sure, and certainly open to interpretation as to what you meant with the "much" modifier, but computer conference rankings generally put the difference between the PAC-12 and the ACC as less than the difference between the SEC and the PAC-12, so yeah, I think "much worse" is too harsh. Now it just looks like you're trying to backtrack on the hyperbolic nature of "much worse".

(Composite conference computer rankings - bottom and way to the right for the mean scores)
College Football Ranking Composite

Fwiw and for the record, I think ACC Atlantic = PAC-12 South in terms of strength and the only difference between the ACC Coastal and the PAC-12 North is Oregon. Big difference, sure, but one that can be changed if VT or Miami get their act in gear the next few years.

I do think the ACC is much worse than the Pac 12, and I think the Sagarin ratings back that up, as does the eyeball test and the CFP rankings and general public opinion. I would have to look into the methodology of the "Football Outsiders" site you posted, especially the garbage time decisions, but that seems to be much less accepted than these other rankings/considerations by most.

I'm not backtracking, just being intellectually honest. The fact of the matter is that semantics does play a part.

I think you're nuts if you think the ACC Atlantic is equal to the Pac 12 South. There you go. That should remove any ambiguity or "backtracking" for ya.

[Karlifornia]

So, there's a game tonight. Any last minute predictions? I think Oregon rolls.

[Butter]

Mini-Ditkas 112, Oregon 2

[Arles]

As much as I want my Wildcats to win, I just can't see it given how well Oregon is playing. Our only chance is to continue to force Mariota into turnovers like we have in the last two games. Still, I'd put our chances at around 30% - I'm hoping for a good, close game.

[cartman]

Arizona seems to have had Oregon's number the past couple of seasons.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by VPI97

"=" means "equal to", but you knew that.

While Sagarin's ratings has it's merits, so do other ratings systems. And rather than cherry pick one that put FSU in the top 4 (general consensus), I'll go with pure stats driven Football Outsiders that throws out garbage time plays and possessions:

USC (23) -> FSU (16)
UCLA (28) -> Clemson (14)
Arizona (44) -> Louisville (15)
Arizona St (30) -> BC (32)
Utah (60) -> NC St (55)
Colorado (86) -> Syracuse (83)
------------- -> Wake Forest (110)

Looks pretty equal to me.

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | 2014 NCAA FOOTBALL S&P+ RATINGS

Marshall at #7 is a little ridiculous. They are basically in the margin of error compared to Oregon. Their SOS is 131 and best win is a 23-18 effort against a UAB team that is barely top 100 and disbanding their football program. Having them a ahead of a team like TCU who has the #31 SOS and a slew of top 40 wins seems almost comical. I like football outsiders, but I also can't see how a team like West Virginia or Miami are top 20 and ahead of all Pac-12 teams save Oregon. Arizona (never been a CPU fav this year) is behind Georgia Southern, Navy and Memphis. They may be getting a little cute with their methods, but it's clear they are a little wonky. They have Stanford above every Pac-12 South team even though they went 1-3 vs the South including a 26-10 drubbing by Arizona State where Stanford had 12 first downs, 288 total yards and was never within 10 against ASU's backup QB. I'm guessing ASU's nearly 400 total yards were mostly gained in "garbage time" and that's why they didn't count?

[Matthean]

Originally Posted by Karlifornia

So, there's a game tonight. Any last minute predictions? I think Oregon rolls.

Oregon wins but not by a huge amount. The playoffs gave them a cushion to be able to lose and still be in the running unlike in the years of the BCS. I think with a playoff spot on the line and them being healthy they aren't willing to let this one slip away. Also, they are my pick to win it all, so I kind of have to pick them.

[Kodos]

I think Oregon is probably the least-painful possible champ. Although their uniforms are horrific.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by Kodos

I think Oregon is probably the least-painful possible champ. Although their uniforms are horrific.

The positive is that the uniforms change each day. So, at some point, we are bound to get some that don't resemble a team from the movie Any Given Sunday.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

FSU RB out for ACC Championship game.

Karlos Williams of Florida State Seminoles out of ACC championship game with concussion - ESPN

Eh, I think that Dalvin Cook's better.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Arles

Marshall at #7 is a little ridiculous. They are basically in the margin of error compared to Oregon. Their SOS is 131 and best win is a 23-18 effort against a UAB team that is barely top 100 and disbanding their football program. Having them a ahead of a team like TCU who has the #31 SOS and a slew of top 40 wins seems almost comical. I like football outsiders, but I also can't see how a team like West Virginia or Miami are top 20 and ahead of all Pac-12 teams save Oregon. Arizona (never been a CPU fav this year) is behind Georgia Southern, Navy and Memphis. They may be getting a little cute with their methods, but it's clear they are a little wonky. They have Stanford above every Pac-12 South team even though they went 1-3 vs the South including a 26-10 drubbing by Arizona State where Stanford had 12 first downs, 288 total yards and was never within 10 against ASU's backup QB. I'm guessing ASU's nearly 400 total yards were mostly gained in "garbage time" and that's why they didn't count?

Marshall is a team everyone is having a hard time getting a grasp of. My opinion is they're not a top 30 team, but considering just how badly they've outperformed their terrible competition it's not hard to see how some computer models and human voters would like them. This is a team that 10-15 years ago is top 10 in the AP and coaches polls because we didn't have a strong understanding of strength of schedule.

WVU has 5 loses. None of them bad. 3 are to top 9 teams, one to Texas on the road, and 1 to Oklahoma (so 4 loses to the CFP top 20). The only loss that wasn't a competitive game is the Texas game. It's really hard to point to anything that says WVU isn't a top 25 team (well, maybe punt returns).

FEI, which I prefer to S&P has WVU 30 and Marshall 19 and is a bit kinder to the PAC12 teams. I think WVU is a little better than that, but I wouldn't argue too much. Marshall just hasn't impressed me much and what computers can't possibly consider is the advantage that comes from being able to blow out terrible teams on a weekly basis. Being so much better than your terrible schedule that you can rest your starters for 1-2 quarters per game for half your season means injuries and fatigue are far less of a concern. Marshall getting the Access Bowl slot after playing a schedule that is worse than 10-15 FCS schools would have been a shame to see.

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | 2014 OVERALL COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS

[miami_fan]

Oregon is really doing its best to keep Arizona in the game.

[Arles]

Kudos to our defense but we are playing scared on offense.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Arles

Kudos to our defense but we are playing scared on offense.

Rich is calling plays like it's Pitt 2007.

[Arles]

We are a running team and have 5 rushes all half (one on 3rd and 8).The last set had 3 passes and punt. Not sure what RichRod is doing but it's rough to watch

[Arles]

This is the first game where our youth is really showing. We have freshman starters at QB, RB and WR and it looks that way. Hopefully we can make it close in the 2nd, but this is a disappointing effort.

[Arles]

RichRod has created the blind read option this game. It's quite impressive to behold.

[Lathum]

It's amazing how Oregon seems to have one head scratcher a year. Sadly never vs UW. How they lost to this team is beyond me.

[Recoil]

On the eve of the GT/FSU ACC championship, here is a clip of the 1999 game between the two teams that cemented my love/hatred of college football. I was 12 years old in a Johnson City, TN Best Western visiting family. We lost, but the game was a crazy back and forth. Joe Ham was GOD during those years:



And this is probably my most memorable recent game between the two teams:

[Matthean]

Oregon must really want to be the #1 seed.

[digamma]

THat pass to Dez White out of the wishbone set is still one of my favorite football plays ever.

Good crowd on the streets of CLT on Saturday morning. Time to turn the Jackets loose.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Paul Johnson, Georgia Tech agree on extension - ESPN

Through 2020.

Since there's a game today I'm trying really really hard to withhold comment.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Does last night's drubbing knock Arizona out of the Fiesta? In favor of UCLA who beat them perhaps? Or no?

[JonInMiddleGA]

Sitting here staring at the rankings and the possibilities ..

#4 FSU _could_ lose if the magic runs out, #5 Ohio State could lose with their third QB of the year, #6 Baylor could lose with their QB dinged up & facing a potentially tough defense (maybe), #7 Arizona got absolutely blasted last night .. if those things all happen, who the heck gets the fourth spot in the playoff?

(My current guess is that FSU would retain the spot by default, being a 1-loss team instead of going with several 2-loss options)

[MizzouRah]

Oregon is really good.

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by MizzouRah

Oregon is really good.

Felt bad for my boy Jourdan Grandon and the rest of the Arizona defense. They were gassed by halftime because the offense couldn't stay on the field and that is a recipe for disaster against the Ducks.

[Matthean]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Sitting here staring at the rankings and the possibilities ..

#4 FSU _could_ lose if the magic runs out, #5 Ohio State could lose with their third QB of the year, #6 Baylor could lose with their QB dinged up & facing a potentially tough defense (maybe), #7 Arizona got absolutely blasted last night .. if those things all happen, who the heck gets the fourth spot in the playoff?

(My current guess is that FSU would retain the spot by default, being a 1-loss team instead of going with several 2-loss options)

FSU would still be in if all of that happened, but I think Baylor gets the win. Now, would Baylor move up to #4 if it played out that way is a big can of worms. The fact that the Big 12 doesn't have a title game is going to come back and bite the playoff system at some point.

[Thomkal]

Coastal Carolina leads Richmond at the half 14-0. Good to see they did not come out flat after their loss to Liberty 2 weeks ago. Interestingly enough their senior kicker who was kicking when Liberty blocked a would be go ahead for the win FG 2 weeks ago is now kicking after the freshman who had gone 5/5 in limited opportunities and had started this game missed his first FG attempt in this game and was either injured or replaced.

The senior kicker has since made 2 FG's-hope that continues for him.

[cartman]

TCU has made their case. They might score 70 in this game.

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by Matthean

FSU would still be in if all of that happened, but I think Baylor gets the win. Now, would Baylor move up to #4 if it played out that way is a big can of worms. The fact that the Big 12 doesn't have a title game is going to come back and bite the playoff system at some point.

I assume the other Big 5 conferences are going to coerce the Big 12 to have a conference championship even it is 5 teams in each division especially if two Big 12 teams get into the playoff this year.

[Galaril]

Classy move by TCU's Patterson to take a knee with 4:30 left and at the 5 yard line give it back to Iowa State. They are now the team I root for in the 4team playoff since I have no dog in the fight.

[Matthean]

Originally Posted by Galaril

I assume the other Big 5 conferences are going to coerce the Big 12 to have a conference championship even it is 5 teams in each division especially if two Big 12 teams get into the playoff this year.

Considering how TCU/Baylor ended, it seems like a crime to not have a rematch and a clear winner for the conference.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Coastal Carolina leads Richmond at the half 14-0. Good to see they did not come out flat after their loss to Liberty 2 weeks ago. Interestingly enough their senior kicker who was kicking when Liberty blocked a would be go ahead for the win FG 2 weeks ago is now kicking after the freshman who had gone 5/5 in limited opportunities and had started this game missed his first FG attempt in this game and was either injured or replaced.

The senior kicker has since made 2 FG's-hope that continues for him.

Coastal up 36-8 at the end of the third. If they should go on to win, they would get the winner of #2 North Dakota State and South Dakota State. If NDS wins, it would be a rematch of last year's game which was won by NDS.

[Thomkal]

Coastal wins 36-15! Woot! NDS tied 14-14 as they near halftime. Liberty just underway at Villanova

[Easy Mac]

Well, that Missouri player is an idiot

[Scoobz0202]

Yea, textbook targeting