2015-2016 MLB Hot Stove thread

[ISiddiqui]

I'm really happy about the Walker trade. A good pickup for dealing Niese, and a definite upgrade from Murphy.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Atocep

He's a solid back of the rotation piece that the Mets didn't need. They've been trying to trade him for over a year now and I didn't understand why a lefty that can give you 180 innings of league average performance didn't get interest before this.

Well, aside from 2012, Niese's WAR has been hovering very close to 0...

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Well, aside from 2012, Niese's WAR has been hovering very close to 0...

A lefty with a roughly 100 ERA+ over the past 4 years is exactly the type of pitcher more than half the teams in the league are desperately trying to find to fill out their rotation during spring training.

Not all teams have figured out that if you're trying to find your 5th starter during spring training then you don't have enough starters. Niese isn't a guy with a lot of value, but he's a guy with enough value that someone should want him. Especially considering he's under club control though 2018 when include his 2 club options.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by Atocep

He's a solid back of the rotation piece that the Mets didn't need. They've been trying to trade him for over a year now and I didn't understand why a lefty that can give you 180 innings of league average performance didn't get interest before this.

It bums people out when 95% of the runs given up in a season occur in only 40 of those 180 innings...

...seemingly.

[Ramzavail]

I'm surprised about the Neil Walker deal. I think PIT knows something that the Mets don't. I can't believe they would give up on a homegrown, hometown guy, Dad was friends with Roberto Clemente, etc. I would think a guy like that would be a Pirate 4 LYFE.

That said, there was no way Niese was going to make the Mets in 2017, they would have declined that option, so I guess its worth the risk.

As for the Cabrera signing, Eh. He's pretty much a more sure-handed Flores. Not much range, some pop, not much eye. I guess he earned a 2 year deal with a decent 2015, but eh. I'm not jumping up and down but at least I won't have to cringe everytime he fields the ball in the hole in SS...if he gets there

[Ramzavail]

Originally Posted by Atocep

A lefty with a roughly 100 ERA+ over the past 4 years is exactly the type of pitcher more than half the teams in the league are desperately trying to find to fill out their rotation during spring training.

Not all teams have figured out that if you're trying to find your 5th starter during spring training then you don't have enough starters. Niese isn't a guy with a lot of value, but he's a guy with enough value that someone should want him. Especially considering he's under club control though 2018 when include his 2 club options.

I think it was his price tag. Sure he's under control, but I would be surprised if PIT doesn't buy him out after 2016. Unless he reverts back to 2012 form. He just doesn't throw hard enough and there isn't much deception there.

16:$9M, 17:$10M club option ($0.5M buyout), 18:$11M club option ($0.5M buyout)

[stevew]

Walker was almost a non tender. We already have Harrison and Kang who can play 2b. Mercer is a pretty solid glove at short. I'm guessing Walker didn't want to extend. Plus we have a 2b prospect who will hopefully be ready soon. And we've stocked up on infielders high in the draft lately.

[claphamsa]

escobar to the angels for an RP... Meh, whatever.

[lungs]

Brew Crew are going to be bad next year. But I'm the most optimistic I've been in a long time with the new management.

So who wants Jonathan Lucroy?

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Well, aside from 2012, Niese's WAR has been hovering very close to 0...

BRef has him 0.7/1.7/0.2 since 2012, but FanGraphs has him 2.0/2.9/0.9 (I believe the difference is that BRef uses ERA while Fangraphs uses FIP). He also took a shot at the Mets defense on the way out the door, although his K rate dropped while his BB rate and HR rate both rose last year, so that seems a little misplaced.

Originally Posted by Ramzavail

I think it was his price tag. Sure he's under control, but I would be surprised if PIT doesn't buy him out after 2016. Unless he reverts back to 2012 form. He just doesn't throw hard enough and there isn't much deception there.

16:$9M, 17:$10M club option ($0.5M buyout), 18:$11M club option ($0.5M buyout)

I don't know the Pirates depth at all, but I think it's a slight lean yes for me right now. I really wouldn't be excited about paying Jon Niese $10 million a year, but for only a 1-year commitment it's not that bad.

Overall seems like a perfect deal for both sides, trading a competent and unexciting MLB starter who's surplus for a similar guy at a position of need. Even if you think your guy was worth more in a vacuum, other teams knew they wouldn't be starting too and were probably lowballing them.

[Peregrine]

Braves trade Christian Bethancourt to Padres for RHP Casey Kelley and a minor league catcher. Not really much of a surprise given their unhappiness with his improvement and the other catchers they have signed.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

escobar to the angels for an RP... Meh, whatever.

While you're right that it's largely a meh deal, I think both teams will benefit. Escobar is a decent versatile stopgap at 2B or 3B (positions of need) who doesn't cost much, and Gott (the RP) is a nice developing pen talent with lead setup man ability.

[Arles]

Sounds like the Cubs just landed Heyward. Not sure on the numbers (reported to be less than $200 mil), but that's a blow to St. Louis. I wasn't a fan of going over $150 mil for Heyward, so I'm guessing the Nats and Cubs outpriced the Cards.

We will see where the Cards go from here, but I can see the logic in not paying Heyward 8/190 or whatever the contract ends up being.

[Atocep]

He may be the safest $200 million guy since ARod.

That's a huge get for the Cubs since it weakens the Cardinals as well. This opens them up to trade one of Schwarber/Soler/Baez for more pitching.

[ISiddiqui]

Holy crap! Zobrist, Lackey, and Heyward? The Cubbies are going all the way in.

[lighthousekeeper]

is it just me or has this offseason seemed much more active than recent off seasons?

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Holy crap! Zobrist, Lackey, and Heyward? The Cubbies are going all the way in.

Yeah, but they're not really mortgaging the future at all... Zobrist/Lackey will be off the books by the time most of the young guys start getting paid close to market value. It'll be interesting to see the numbers, but Heyward/Rizzo/Schwarber/Bryant/Soler/Russell all 26 and younger? Not bad Theo, not bad indeed.

Btw, gotta love the Marlins trade demands for Jose Fernandez. Fernandez is amazing, but even ignoring his injury he's got 3 years of control left at somewhat under market value prices but not league minimum, and then you're paying market value if you can even re-sign him. So the Marlins allegedly asked Boston for Mookie Betts, Eduardo Rodriguez, Christian Vazquez, Yoan Moncada "and another pitcher". What is with teams and Mookie? (Philly and Amaro thought they could get Mookie+Swihart+more for Hamels last winter.) He just put up 4.8 WAR (23rd in the league) as a 22y/o while basically learning a new position on the job, is playing for league minimum 2 more seasons, and unlike Xander seemingly has no obvious flaw that could lead to regression in the short term or prevent him from reaching his ceiling long term. That's a borderline top-10 trade asset in baseball, not someone you build a package around!

[ISiddiqui]

Well, also when you have an ownership group actually willing to open the checkbook, you don't particularly have to worry about mortgaging the future that much (well, unless your stockpiling involves trading young talent). It seems the Theo is getting the financial backing to create a great team.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Btw, gotta love the Marlins trade demands for Jose Fernandez. Fernandez is amazing, but even ignoring his injury he's got 3 years of control left at somewhat under market value prices but not league minimum, and then you're paying market value if you can even re-sign him. So the Marlins allegedly asked Boston for Mookie Betts, Eduardo Rodriguez, Christian Vazquez, Yoan Moncada "and another pitcher". What is with teams and Mookie? (Philly and Amaro thought they could get Mookie+Swihart+more for Hamels last winter.) He just put up 4.8 WAR (23rd in the league) as a 22y/o while basically learning a new position on the job, is playing for league minimum 2 more seasons, and unlike Xander seemingly has no obvious flaw that could lead to regression in the short term or prevent him from reaching his ceiling long term. That's a borderline top-10 trade asset in baseball, not someone you build a package around!

Well, you have to see it for what it is. It's the Marlins telling teams we are not interested in trading Fernandez so stop trying to kick the tires.

[Easy Mac]

Autopsy confirmed Tommy Hanson OD'd on cocaine.

[MrBug708]

Marlins asked the Dodgers for Urias, Seager, and Petersen

[Toddzilla]

Marlins asked the Cubs for Bryant and Schwarber

[Toddzilla]

Originally Posted by Arles

Sounds like the Cubs just landed Heyward. Not sure on the numbers (reported to be less than $200 mil), but that's a blow to St. Louis. I wasn't a fan of going over $150 mil for Heyward, so I'm guessing the Nats and Cubs outpriced the Cards.

Turns out the Cubs make the *lowest* offer of them, Nats and Cards.

[Arles]

Just read that, it's a little odd. Either Heyward thinks the Cubs have a better chance to win (which they do) and/or St. Louis didn't want to give him the two contract outs the Cubs did (doesn't make much sense if they didn't). Either way, the Cards are reeling and have lost out on Price and Heyward. We will see how the offseason ends, but St Louis looks to be the underdog for the first time in a while.

The only consolation is the last hitter to turn down a $200 million offer from St Louis ended up being a good move for the team (Pujols). Outside of that, the Cards are climbing uphill in the central. We will see how these Cubbies handle the weight of being heavy favorites.

[markprior22]

Cardinals will most likely be just fine. Piscotti looks like a heck of a player and Grichuk has a nice ceiling. I'd be more concerned with the decline of Yadier. He has been such a strong influence, not to mention outstanding player for many years. Pitching is kind of iffy but Cardinals always seem to find a way there too. I am a Cub fan but I am far from thinking the Cardinals aren't going to be right in the thick of it. Baseball can't get here soon enough!

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Easy Mac

Autopsy confirmed Tommy Hanson OD'd on cocaine.

how sad

[Arles]

Originally Posted by markprior22

Cardinals will most likely be just fine. Piscotti looks like a heck of a player and Grichuk has a nice ceiling. I'd be more concerned with the decline of Yadier. He has been such a strong influence, not to mention outstanding player for many years. Pitching is kind of iffy but Cardinals always seem to find a way there too. I am a Cub fan but I am far from thinking the Cardinals aren't going to be right in the thick of it. Baseball can't get here soon enough!

Yeah, I just heard the Cards offer was 10-200. So, it makes sense to take 8/184 (23 per) with two player options. If the cards can add one decent OF bat in FA, you can argue that a healthy Adams, Holliday, Molina, FA bat and a full season of Piscotty more than make up for the loss of Heyward. I also think having a healthy Wainwright plus Carlos Martinez next postseason should make up for a 37-38 year old Lackey.

Health will play a big role next year. If Wainwright, Holliday, Molina and Martinez are hurt again next postseason, the Cards will be in trouble. Their margin for error is less, but they should be fine with decent health and a couple solid additions in FA.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

I'm really happy about the Walker trade. A good pickup for dealing Niese, and a definite upgrade from Murphy.

Perhaps he is. Problem with Walker is he cant hit leftys and trying to replicate the magical post season performance of Murphy this past season which was nothing short of extraordinary.

On the other hand paying Murphy because of the post season he had would be a mistake. That never seems to work out.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Arles

Yeah, I just heard the Cards offer was 10-200. So, it makes sense to take 8/184 (23 per) with two player options. If the cards can add one decent OF bat in FA, you can argue that a healthy Adams, Holliday, Molina, FA bat and a full season of Piscotty more than make up for the loss of Heyward. I also think having a healthy Wainwright plus Carlos Martinez next postseason should make up for a 37-38 year old Lackey.

Health will play a big role next year. If Wainwright, Holliday, Molina and Martinez are hurt again next postseason, the Cards will be in trouble. Their margin for error is less, but they should be fine with decent health and a couple solid additions in FA.

Tricky situation for the Cards. Heyward being worth that much is based much upon his defense. Being in his prime and showing the ability to do everything well had to be tough on the Cards seeing him walk to a division rival and arguably the most talented team in baseball right now. I think the Cubs are 1 starting pitcher away from being the most dominate team in baseball next year.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

Perhaps he is. Problem with Walker is he cant hit leftys and trying to replicate the magical post season performance of Murphy this past season which was nothing short of extraordinary.

On the other hand paying Murphy because of the post season he had would be a mistake. That never seems to work out.

If Terry Collins is smart he'll be using heavy platoons next year. Dilson Herrera has crushed lefties in the minors and Wilmer Flores had a .955 OPS against them. Herrera is pretty much 2nd base only and Flores is perfectly capable of playing there as well.

[stevew]

I would not be a fan of paying a player 23 million when his primary skill is defense and baserunning. He's young enough that he probably won't be Carl Crawford 2.0 but that's a ton of Cheddar for Heyward.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Well, you have to see it for what it is. It's the Marlins telling teams we are not interested in trading Fernandez so stop trying to kick the tires.

It's all rumors, but there are a lot of them about the Marlins approaching teams. I think Peter Gammons has lost a step or two, but if he's willing to directly attribute a quote, I still trust him.

Originally Posted by http://www.gammonsdaily.com/peter-gammons-winter-meetings-over-holiday-shopping-continues/

One Dodger official said, “if we gave them what they wanted, we wouldn’t have one young pitcher left in our organization,” and they moved on. Before the Diamondbacks made the Shelby Miller deal, they talked to the Marlins about Fernandez, and were told they’d have to trade five of their best young pitchers and third baseman Brandon Drury for three years of Fernandez. Nyet.

“We thought we might be able to piece something together with the Red Sox,” said a Marlins official. “With ERod (Eduardo Rodriguez), Mookie Betts, Christian Vazquez, Yoan Moncada and another pitcher I thought we had something that might work.”

I get starting high in negotiations, and if anyone approaches you asking for an absurd return, but if that was a fellow fantasy owner we'd all think he's an asshole. Why not just ask the Angels for Mike Trout straight up?

Spoiler

Because they don't have a top 50 pitching prospect to include with Trout of course!

Originally Posted by stevew

I would not be a fan of paying a player 23 million when his primary skill is defense and baserunning. He's young enough that he probably won't be Carl Crawford 2.0 but that's a ton of Cheddar for Heyward.

There were plenty of reasons to question the amount Crawford signed for at the time and think that last TB year was a career year, but I'm not sure you can learn anything from his example. He was 28 and coming off consecutive 5/7 WAR seasons without a season below 2.3 WAR since his abbreviated rookie year, and has produced 4.4 combined WAR in the 5 years since and not a single season above 2.3 WAR. Just a bizarre collapse off a cliff in what should've been his prime.

[Arles]

It will also be interesting to see Heyward's defensive WAR next season in CF (after primarily being a RF in St Louis). His range will really be tested at CF as he's played 800 games in RF and only a few in CF in his career. I also agree I'd be a little hesitant to pay a guy $23 mil per when he's been a RF his whole career and his offensive WAR has been between 2.0 and 3.5. The Cubs are really banking on him being a great CF (played 30 games there in his career) and not losing a step over this contract.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by stevew

I would not be a fan of paying a player 23 million when his primary skill is defense and baserunning. He's young enough that he probably won't be Carl Crawford 2.0 but that's a ton of Cheddar for Heyward.

Isn't this kind of like saying you wouldn't pay Ozzie Smith a top salary? And Heyward appears to be a better player (albeit at a different position).

For the record, though, all of Carl Crawford's value was offense and baserunning. He was an average defender at best.

[stevew]

Maybe a SS, sure

[Arles]

I also wouldn't sign Ozzie Smith in his prime for $23 million and then switch his position

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Arles

I also wouldn't sign Ozzie Smith in his prime for $23 million and then switch his position

Well, Ozzie Smith's entire team probably wasn't paid $23m when he first came up! (In that vein, I think I saw something along the lines of David Price making more per start than Sandy Koufax made his entire career recently.) IMO, it will be interesting to see how it plays out, but going from RF to CF isn't that different, and if Heyward struggles you just move him back to right and shift your CF towards LF. As fun as it it to argue about, the truth really is that if Heyward stays healthy and doesn't fall off a cliff his deal will end up somewhere between ok and good. Even if he's only a 2.0 WAR player in 3 years, paying $23m for that won't kill any mid/large market team's budget.

The double opt-out however really does intrigue me. Has it been announced when the 2nd one is yet? And are we heading towards the marquee FA next winter or in 2017 signing a LeBron/Colin Kaepernick type-deal where signs an 8 year deal but really has player options for $25m every single year going forward?

[PilotMan]

Well the Giants made things even more interesting in the West. I hope LA isn't content to stand by with another season of patchwork, injury prone, pitchers and no big bats in the middle of the lineup again.

The losses we've had coupled with the gains other places will make the battle next year that much harder. I'm sure they've got a plan, but clearly going after (and signing) one of the top tier guys out there wasn't on it.

[lighthousekeeper]

Originally Posted by lighthousekeeper

is it just me or has this offseason seemed much more active than recent off seasons?

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/159658...t-stove-season

[Atocep]

Cueto for 6 years and $130 is a big gamble considering his elbow was bothering him last season.

[frnk55]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Cueto for 6 years and $130 is a big gamble considering his elbow was bothering him last season.

I think it's going to bite SF in the ass. You just gotta hold you're breath if you're a SF fan.

[JPhillips]

Hate the return for Todd Frazier. The Reds should have gotten more than a low OBP/no power middle infielder and two fringe OF prospects.

I hope someone takes Votto so he doesn't have to play out his career on teams that make the early 2000s Reds look good.

[ISiddiqui]

Peraza is a pretty highly regarded prospect. True he struggled a bit in AAA with OBP, but he's still only 21. He had a pretty decent OBP prior to last season.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Peraza is a pretty highly regarded prospect. True he struggled a bit in AAA with OBP, but he's still only 21. He had a pretty decent OBP prior to last season.

For the last two seasons his OBP is almost entirely driven by his average. He's walked 34 times in 1020 PA. Yes, he's young, but he's going to have to improve a lot to be a good major leaguer.

edit: And he has a grand total of nine HR in five minor league seasons. I know he's highly rated, but there are some big red flags as far as I'm concerned.

[BillJasper]

I'll miss Todd Frazier. But he tailed off badly the second half of last year and is a luxury on a rebuilding team. Hopefully, at least one of the prospects we got back will work out.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Royals low-balling Alex Gordon? - Royals Review

[lighthousekeeper]

Ruggiano is a good pick up for the Rangers.

[PilotMan]

This is the funniest thing I've read all day.

Bartolo Colon's new Mets contract includes a bonus if he wins the Silver Slugger Award.

[lighthousekeeper]

Spring Training Countdown

[frnk55]

Originally Posted by lighthousekeeper

Spring Training Countdown

Wooo Hoooo!! 58 days and counting. And if you're old like me time goes by faster.