WW LXVII -- The Return of Divination Nation! (GAME OVER STUDENTS WIN!!!)

[Barkeep49]

I think it's further evidence that N0 played by different rules than the rest of the game.

[Pumpy Tudors]

Shit, I forgot to scan somebody.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Pumpy Tudors

Shit, I forgot to scan somebody.

Send it in anyway. He might accept the late result. Can't hurt to try.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Send it in anyway. He might accept the late result. Can't hurt to try.

I did. It was here when I signed on so that's fine by me.

[path12]

The joy of getting another wolf is tempered by the loss of yet another fellow student, but at least you can feel you are making some progress, though the sign posted in the hallway reading SPRING TOLO MAR 15TH -- GET YOUR TICKETS NOW!! almost feel mocking when compared to the dire circumstances you currently find yourself in. You settle in for what are becoming increasingly unnerving nights.

And this one is no different, as you awaken to find oliegirl lying dead in the hallway, a bloody stuffed orange cat sitting on what is left of her neck.

OLIEGIRL, THE TEACHER'S PET, HAS BEEN KILLED. DAY 6 IS UNDERWAY, DEADLINE IS 9PM EST MONDAY.

Individual PM's are going out now.

[mauchow]

Ouch.

[claphamsa]

poor kitty :'(

[ntndeacon]

btw my scan said that olie was a wolf.

[mauchow]

Vote The Jackal

All right guys. Here's what I've got and you might see why I've voted the way I did.

Why am I sure about this vote? I'm not the teacher's pet obviously, but I believe I have a VERY high success rate, high enough that I've hit this scan. I haven't gotten one wrong. How is that possible? I lied on a night. My second scan on Dodger Chick really came back as a student, but I didn't want to give away a possibility that I was the Teacher's Pet. My mistake was playing Dodger Chick as a wolf when I could've easily scanned someone else and just called them a student. But I already made my move and it's turned out this way.

Anyhow, all three of my scans have been correct so far and night 5 has revealed the Jackal as a wolf for me. I've got no other reason except to believe my own scan in which I've been 3 of 3 so far on, and of course that's not including n0.

[mauchow]

It stinks that it's the weekend so we can't get some good discussion going while I'm actually around. Ah, well.

[RendeR]

BOOOYAH!


Suck on THAT one Students

[MikeVic]

I scanned NTN as a student.

[Lorena]

Originally Posted by RendeR

BOOOYAH!


Suck on THAT one Students

I'm so glad this is was my last game, it's stuff like this that really gets under my skin.

[Mr. Wednesday]

I returned Pumpy as a wolf.

I'm looking forward to seeing any new info Heinz has to offer.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Dodgerchick

I'm so glad this is was my last game, it's stuff like this that really gets under my skin.

Oh come on, I'm dead and I wanted to celebrate a great move for my side, gimme a break =)

Its just good natured cheering, not like I'm posting it 10 times after every kill or something =)

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Dodgerchick

I'm so glad this is was my last game, it's stuff like this that really gets under my skin.

shrug

I don't see the big deal, he included the to let you know it was all in good fun.

[Barkeep49]

Last night's kill only adds to what I thought before. My guess is that the wolves knew CR was the Class Clown on Day 4, but they couldn't risk him being killed because that would reveal Render as a wolf. So, when the voting got close, they decided to save him. I had suggested this before, under the idea that CR was a wolf they were saving. Instead it was, indirectly, Render that they were trying to save.

[Barkeep49]

I'm going to ask that the dead stay dead as we have a competitive game going on and I don't want to distract from that.

~Barkeep, YFWWM

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

Vote The Jackal

All right guys. Here's what I've got and you might see why I've voted the way I did.

Why am I sure about this vote? I'm not the teacher's pet obviously, but I believe I have a VERY high success rate, high enough that I've hit this scan. I haven't gotten one wrong. How is that possible? I lied on a night. My second scan on Dodger Chick really came back as a student, but I didn't want to give away a possibility that I was the Teacher's Pet. My mistake was playing Dodger Chick as a wolf when I could've easily scanned someone else and just called them a student. But I already made my move and it's turned out this way.

Anyhow, all three of my scans have been correct so far and night 5 has revealed the Jackal as a wolf for me. I've got no other reason except to believe my own scan in which I've been 3 of 3 so far on, and of course that's not including n0.

I'm not opposed to the Jackal, but do you realize how potentially awful this strategy could have been? That if we had discovered you as the teacher's pet and DC was still around we'd have lynched her? To have ANY hope of winning we need to assume that CR and Olie were both honest with their scans and that we have a CoT which consists of:

Mau, Ntn, and Mr. W

[mauchow]

It wasn't as bad as you make it out to be. I knew Dodger Chick was going to be under heat that day so I figured to an extent that I should use her since I'd find out that night whether she was good or bad. I tried telling people that she wasn't a wolf but it really didn't matter because CR was the other one under fire.

It was a strategy I thought out pretty well.. for the most part. It worked out, since I figured the wolves wouldn't ax me if I just said someone was a wolf and they were really a student. So.. I'm hoping my scan last night was a good one instead of my first bad one, which very well could be.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

It wasn't as bad as you make it out to be. I knew Dodger Chick was going to be under heat that day so I figured to an extent that I should use her since I'd find out that night whether she was good or bad. I tried telling people that she wasn't a wolf but it really didn't matter because CR was the other one under fire.

It was a strategy I thought out pretty well.. for the most part. It worked out, since I figured the wolves wouldn't ax me if I just said someone was a wolf and they were really a student. So.. I'm hoping my scan last night was a good one instead of my first bad one, which very well could be.

What do you think your accuracy rate is? Let's say it's 75%. That's only about a 30% chance that you'd get all 4 right. Even if you have 90% accuracy, there's only a 65% chance that you get 4 scans right. And even if you had only 50% accuracy, 1 in 8 will get the correct scan 3 times and 1 in 16 will get 4 correct scans. Basically what I'm saying is that now that the TP and CC are out of the game, I feel that scans are irrelevant and we're playing a traditional game of WW.

[oliegirl]

A stuffed kitty???

Good luck students!

[mauchow]

I understand, Barkeep. I understand that I've hit three out of three of my scans and my % continues to drop on my chance to hit but it is still the same percentage(whatever it is) that I'm going to hit a good scan last night. If it is 75% or 90%, it is still 75% or 90% that I got a good scan last night. I'll scan Jackal again on the next night and see what happens, if I'm still alive at that point.

I understand not following me on this though.

[Barkeep49]

Right now I'm looking hard at Pumpy. His vote on D4 was peculiar. I'm going to likely do a post recap for him to see if there's anything else of interest there.

[Barkeep49]

Here's a summary of Pumpy's posts. Not a lot to go off of, I feel.

107 - Stating he’s a student
112 – Joke post
151 – Doesn’t understand what’s being said
183 – Doesn’t like all the #s
191 – Meaningless post
192 – Joke post
209 – Votes JH with no reason
223 – Doesn’t have anything to add and is still confused; doesn’t like nfg’s actions
230 – Denies being a wolf after being accused by nfg
270 – Feels that game is serious; is trying to have fun
273 – Joke post
275 – Joke post
283 – Joke post
299 – Joke post
391 – Doesn’t like talking about a scan he didn’t choose; will discuss next scan
396 – Feels students will be hurt if he’s lynched
399 – Agrees with Jackal that he’s not in danger of being lynched
523 – Scans nfg as wolf
564 – Wants to vote nfg but is waiting for more information
568 – Trusts scan of nfg but wants more info
577 – N0 scan was of Lathum as student
585 – In response to Lathum questioning his faith in his nfg scan, says “ONLY A WOLF WOULD SAY THAT!!!”
591 – Joke post
598 – Votes nfg; continues to suggest he is open to voting differently
690 – Points out that the discussion of whether wolves could talk to each other was contrary to what the rules said
741 – Joke post
746 – Sticking with nfg but is willing to vote pass if there are enough votes against him
804 – Doesn’t think Lathum’s a wolf but would have to consider changing vote if people keep voting for him
805 – Feels strongly that we can’t vote no lynch (this is on d2)
966 – Meaningless post
1077 – Having a hard time following scans; suggests wolves are lying about scans; thinks weird N0 might be due to wolf lying; wants to scan nfg again
1079 – Admits that it’s unreasonable to think that only wolves got wolf scans on N0
1107 – Scanned nfg again; he scanned as student this time
1175 – Votes nfg for no reason
1314 – Is going to scan Chief Rum
1315 – Knows he’s been right twice, wrong once; isn’t sure how useful his CR scan is going to be
1351 – Scanned CR as student; “Honestly these scans aren’t getting me anywhere”
1575 – Is leery of people who have been quiet during game; votes MikeVic
1579 – Doesn’t want vote to be considered throwaway; would entertain Chief Rum or DC, but really wants focus on quiet people
1585 – Asks if anyone hasn’t voted
1602 – Unvotes Vic votes Cronin; Can’t vote for CR because CR has done a lot; Can’t vote for DC since he doesn’t think she’s a wolf (Cronin had already been killed by this post)
1611 – Missed Cronin dying; votes mau
1624 – Thinks he brought suspicion on himself by voting for a dead wolf
1692 – Scanned sndvls as wolf; Is amazed over losing 3 students
1760 – Wants to get JH if Render turns out good; Seems unconvinced of Render being a wolf
1782 – Wants JH to reveal his reasoning behind the Render analysis
1795 – Asks to be scanned
1827 – Wants to focus on finding Teacher’s Pet, but admits that doing so could lead to wolves killing him (or her as it turned out to be)
1828 – Meaningless post
1850 – Is confused about why CR scanned Lathum as villager on N0
1852 – Forgot to scan someone by deadline

[mauchow]

Not that it realy matters, but the whole "I forgot to put in my scan" and Path responding that he received it kinda throws the whole pumpy thing into dissarray, I don't know if it was a slip up to mention anything at all... but.. my 2 cents.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

Not that it realy matters, but the whole "I forgot to put in my scan" and Path responding that he received it kinda throws the whole pumpy thing into dissarray, I don't know if it was a slip up to mention anything at all... but.. my 2 cents.

Why does it throw the whole thing into disarray? I encouraged him to send in a scan anyway. He seems to have done so and path confirms that he allowed the late scan. I fail to see how this speaks well or poor for him as it's my understanding, from a question I asked before the game, that wolves get scans too, so this seems like a moot point either for or against him.

And that's my trouble with pumpy. I don't see anything for or against him from the whole game.

[mauchow]

I see what you're saying. I didn't realize the wolves could scan us, too.

Anyways, on Pumpy, I'm seeing the same things as you. He seems to just be hanging back and I can't get a read either way. Despite Heinz's kill the other day, I'm still iffy on him being on the wolves side in some way or another. He just uses a lot of, "You guys can trust me now." or I think I've gained enough trust by now.". So, Who knows what'll happen. I'm open for anything but.....with 1 out of 2 scans on Jackal being wolf(nobody else has reported on Jackal yet today if anybody did make a scan).

If Jackal lives through the night, I plan on scanning him again.

[Pumpy Tudors]

My last scan stated said that heinz is a student, by the way.

Anyway, I don't really know what to say here. I have no idea how to convince everyone that I'm a student. At this point, all I know to do is give you guys the results of my scans so that we can have additional data points.

I only mentioned that I had forgotten to turn in my scan for one reason. If I had been unable to get a scan done, I wanted you all to know why. I had no idea that it would look fishy. I was just trying to get the truth out there as soon as I had realized it.

I accept that it's hard to get a read on me. I just really don't know what to say to help convince everyone that I'm not a wolf. I've given you guys all the information that I have, which has been the results of my scans. The sad thing for me is that I don't even know how to defend myself here.

[The Jackal]

Just came in - my scan on SnD came back student. Not sure what to make of it, most of my scans have been confirmed accurate but clearly I can't be the teacher's pet anymore, which I'm not too sad about because it'd probably mean I'd be dead.

Mau - I understand why you have your vote on me, your accuracy seems to have been hitting pretty well, but you certainly aren't the teacher's pet, and I'm certainly not a wolf. Feel free to repeat your scan on me tonight (assuming I make it), and if you really have been accurate (I see no reason why you'd lie, as you've been cleared), then you should get the student result back.

It's good now that we have a COT, and I'd expand it to include heinz, unless he's engineering the greatest backstabbing wolf play ever. It's not out of the realm of possibility but I'm thinking it's much more likely he's just been a spot on helpful student in this affair.

[mauchow]

I was going to hold off on doing my little set up here and do two scans in a row once I hit a wolf. I should have done it that way but what's done is done and just for the sake of this game, I have to go with what I've got here unless someone can manufacture a better plan.

I don't mind Heinz being put in the Circle of Trust, but he can't be left out for good.

If this scan on you was wrong Jackal, my next scan will most likely be correct so hopefully I get another scan and can hit a wolfie.

Did we figure anything out from the Fool's/Pet's scans yet? Opposites and such? Can we do deductive reasoning and slim our scan lists down some more? We shouldn't be doing scans on people we know to be good. That means no more scans on me for sure and whoever else has been scanned as a student by Olie or a wolf by CR.

I'm sure Jeheinz will post a list tomorrow and we'll have this game locked up perhaps.

I'm surprised Heinz is still alive, which somewhat leads me to believe that he's a wolf or wolf lover and Jackal is trying one last effort to make sure nobody goes after him by saying that he'd include heinz in the COT, unless of course he's engineering... bla bla... smoke screen if Jackal turns out to be a wolf. I think there is about a 5% chance of this happening, so don't think I'm leaning this way at all.

Anyhow, that's enough from me for the evening. I want to see some lists which I can't begin to thank enough for doing it.

[Mr. Wednesday]

mau, Heinz has just picked off TWO wolves, and they spent their last two kills taking out the TP and CC. What on earth possesses you not to trust him right now?

[mauchow]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

mau, Heinz has just picked off TWO wolves, and they spent their last two kills taking out the TP and CC. What on earth possesses you not to trust him right now?

Like I said, 5% chance of that happening. Probably even less, I believe him, sorry.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

I'm surprised Heinz is still alive,

Uh, did you miss the part where the wolves have been busy killing off our two most important roles? That's why I'm still alive. Frankly, if Olie hadn't cleared you, a nonsensical post such as that would get you my vote.

Anyhow, glad RendeR was a wolf (slight bit of panic there when CR said he scanned him as a wolf, that's what I was going off of, I had deduced CR to be the class clown, hence I was trying to stay quiet about it).

Just getting on, going to analyze some scans..

[jeheinz72]

Ok, well here is what I have so far, no sense mincing words as the wolfies took out our best roles.

In the clear:
Mr. Wednesday (olie scanned as Good)
Mauboy1 (olie scanned as Good)
NTN (CR scanned as Wolf, so it's opposite)
jeheinz (I'm putting myself here, if you don't like it, you're a fool but whatever)

I'm pretty sure is good:
Barkeep49

That leaves
TheJackal, MikeVic, SnDvls, Pumpy

Here are the scan results for each

TheJackal has been scanned three times so far. Myself and Mr. W have scanned him as good, Mau scanned him as bad

MikeVic has been scanned twice so far, both good, from the Jackal and Mau

SnDvls has been scanned twice so far, a good scan from The Jackal and a bad one from PumpyTudors

Pumpy has been scanned twice, a wolf scan from SnDvls and a wolf scan from Mr. W

[Barkeep49]

Per the list I had generated, I scanned SnDvls. He came up good.

[Barkeep49]

So based on that I'm going to have to go with Pumpy. I don't really have a feeling one way or another about him, but that's part of the problem. We've been fooled before by the UTR new player.

Vote Pumpy

[jeheinz72]

Here is everyone's accuracies so far...

BK - 2-2, 1 unknown (n5?)
jeheinz72 - see below
Mauboy - 2-0, 2 unknown
MikeVic - 1-3, 1 unknown
Mr. W - 2-1, 2 unknown
NTN - 2-3
PumpyTudors - 3-1, 1 unknown
SnDvls - 1-3, 1 unknown
TheJackal - 3-0, 2 unknown

I put see below on mine, because mine are all fake. I've made up each of my scans since n0. Reason being, I'm the other MathWhiz, though I don't have a person I can talk to like bsak did. That's how I figured out CR was the Class Clown.

The reason I'm telling you guys this is, well, my role is essentially meaningless with the TP and CC gone, so I figure getting the info out is better than nothing.

On Night 2 I learned MikeVic has a 48% hit rate, Night 3 I learned clap *had* an 87% hit rate, Night 4 I learned SnDvls has a 61% hit rate and last night I learned Olie was the Teachers Pet, but then she died of course.

Also though, the %'s don't clear MikeVic or SnDvls, I've been told that the wolves have accuracy rates as well, so I could just be getting their percentage at doing whatever the heck they can scan for.

[Pumpy Tudors]

Well, I understand why Barkeep is voting for me, but I think SnDvls is trying to set me up. I don't believe that he really scanned me as a wolf.

VOTE SNDVLS

[jeheinz72]

I'm agreeing with BK here, Pumpy has been basically non-descript, which is how I'd play it if it were my 1st game and I was a wolf. Also, the veteran wolves could've easily told him to be UTR, knowing they'd be under fire.

Also, he's been scanned as a wolf by someone who I trust in this game, Mr. W.

Vote Pumpy Tudors

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Pumpy Tudors

Well, I understand why Barkeep is voting for me, but I think SnDvls is trying to set me up. I don't believe that he really scanned me as a wolf.

VOTE SNDVLS

Mr. W also scanned you as a wolf, and we know he's good.

[mauchow]

This one could be over.. Jackal and Pumpy the final wolve(s)?

Heinz, I was under the assumption they didn't know who the Fool and Pets were. I just figured they'd go after who they might think is the biggest threat.

For some reason I thought I was 3-0 but I am indeed 2-0 with two unknowns. Thanks for clearing it up.

Anyhow, one of the two Pumpy or Jackal have got to go.

[Barkeep49]

After reading over his posts, I'm inclined to believe MikeVic is the other wolf if Pumpy is one. They had some hostility a couple days back that amounted to nothing and seemed possibly contrived, in retrospect. But I'm not terribly sold on Pumpy, let alone Pumpy+Mike. In fact I'm uneasy about the whole thing. It just seems like the best of bad choices.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

This one could be over.. Jackal and Pumpy the final wolve(s)?

Heinz, I was under the assumption they didn't know who the Fool and Pets were. I just figured they'd go after who they might think is the biggest threat.

For some reason I thought I was 3-0 but I am indeed 2-0 with two unknowns. Thanks for clearing it up.

Anyhow, one of the two Pumpy or Jackal have got to go.

Both JH and I had figured out CR was the fool and we're working with less information than the wolves. I maintain that the wolves knew on D3 about CR and obviously by last night about Olie.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

After reading over his posts, I'm inclined to believe MikeVic is the other wolf if Pumpy is one. They had some hostility a couple days back that amounted to nothing and seemed possibly contrived, in retrospect. But I'm not terribly sold on Pumpy, let alone Pumpy+Mike. In fact I'm uneasy about the whole thing. It just seems like the best of bad choices.

Yeah, our only saving grace right now is time. I mean we have a list of 4 people to pick from for lynches, and it's 7:2, so even a mislynch we should be ok with it at 5:2 and a list of 3 people, two of which would then be wolves.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by Pumpy Tudors

Well, I understand why Barkeep is voting for me, but I think SnDvls is trying to set me up. I don't believe that he really scanned me as a wolf.

VOTE SNDVLS

you do realize I scanned you several days ago and said this right? It's not like I just came out with this info. This one is pretty easy for me. It helps me narrow down my accuracy and Mr. W who is a know student also scanned you as a wolf. I have to trust myself and him in this case.

Vote Pumpy Tudors

I scanned The Jackayl per the scan list he came up student

[MikeVic]

I am a student.

I got upset with Pumpy because I didn't see where he was coming from. Seemed like a weird vote out of nowhere.

I don't know who to vote for yet, still early in the day. But jeheinz has definitely gotten my trust.

[MikeVic]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

you do realize I scanned you several days ago and said this right? It's not like I just came out with this info. This one is pretty easy for me. It helps me narrow down my accuracy and Mr. W who is a know student also scanned you as a wolf. I have to trust myself and him in this case.

Vote Pumpy Tudors

I scanned The Jackayl per the scan list he came up student

You have a 61% hit rate.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by MikeVic

You have a 61% hit rate.

yes I saw that, but which ones are right?

[Pumpy Tudors]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

you do realize I scanned you several days ago and said this right? It's not like I just came out with this info. This one is pretty easy for me. It helps me narrow down my accuracy and Mr. W who is a know student also scanned you as a wolf. I have to trust myself and him in this case.

Vote Pumpy Tudors

I scanned The Jackayl per the scan list he came up student

The wolves might have been trying to set me up a few days ago for all I know. I really have no idea what they're up to. I seem to be the target right now, and it's the students who'll suffer if I die.

Hey, it's nothing personal. I'm not a wolf, but you scanned me as one. I also scanned you, and it said you're a wolf. I kinda have to vote for you here.