The Obama Presidency - 2008 & 2012

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Kodos

Maybe the Israel stuff should go in its own thread?

It has one - people just aren't using it.

Someone made one yesterday.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Because we're fucking stupid.

I think its because we need oil, so we need to play this tightrope game.

I think we should focus on non-arabic muslim countries (e.g. Indonesia, Malaysia) who are moderate and win them over.

[Dutch]

Complaints about where topics should be posted belong in the "Complaints about where topics should be posted" thread.

[Galaxy]

How nice:

Anonymous wages war on Israel with hacks and memes

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by Galaxy

How nice:

Anonymous wages war on Israel with hacks and memes

Ha, people who think Anonymous is a group. How funny.

[DaddyTorgo]

LOL

Deport Everyone That Signed A Petition To Withdraw Their State From The United States Of America. | We the People: Your Voice in Our Government

[Edward64]

Not good news from Reid. Are they bringing back a super committee to do the negotiations?

Fiscal Cliff 2012 - US Business News — Emboldened by Election, Democrats Draw New Line - CNBC

President Barack Obama's re-election has stiffened Democrats' spine against cutting popular benefit programs such as Medicare and Social Security. Their new resolve could become as big a hurdle to a deal that would skirt crippling tax increases and spending cuts in January as Republicans' resistance to raising tax rates on the wealthy.

Just last year, Obama and top Democrats were willing during budget negotiations with Republicans to take politically risky steps such as reducing the annual inflation adjustment to Social Security and raising the eligibility age for Medicare.

Now, with new leverage from Obama's big election victory and a playing field for negotiations that is more favorable in other ways, too, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and other Democrats are taking a harder line.

"I've made it very clear. I've told anyone that will listen, including everyone in the White House, including the president, that I am not going to be part of having Social Security as part of these talks relating to this deficit," Reid, D-Nev., told reporters.

[DaddyTorgo]

You know - for everyone who bitches about how much of a typical "blind liberal" I am, based upon the preliminary research that I've done looking at it, I might be okay with changing to a Chained-CPI.

I haven't exhaustively researched it, so maybe I'm missing something, but it seems, from the ways I've seen it presented, to be logical.

[JPhillips]

Social Security isn't a driver of the debt, there's no reason to make big changes to that program.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Social Security isn't a driver of the debt, there's no reason to make big changes to that program.

That's absolutely true. I'm just saying...moving to a Chained-CPI at some point doesn't seem illogical.

[Marc Vaughan]

Originally Posted by Galaxy

Does Hamas really want peace?

No I very much doubt they do ... the IRA didn't either, the leaders wanted a fully independant Ireland and the extremist elements wanted to commit acts of violence.

(the thing is that violent thugs without financial support are rather limited in the destruction they can do - however while they're seen as 'freedom fighters' by their supporters they've access to funds and weapons - once their supporters stopped seeing the IRA as freedom fighters their campaign of violence dribbled out and proper peace talks were achievable)

[JonInMiddleGA]

Somebody refresh my memory and/or correct me where I'm wrong.

S.S. is still a source of revenue for the general budget, via borrowing from the trust fund. That borrowing in turn currently accounts for around half of the "intra-governmental" debt, which in turn is roughly one-third of the entire national debt. By my simple math, it's basically 16% of the current total national debt.

Meanwhile, the S.S. fund just went into the red (outgoing vs non-interest income) as of 2011 & is expected to remain there going forward. In other words, it now has to spend the interest on the (now) steadily shrinking surplus in order to pay beneficiaries. That should hold up for about a decade more, give or take, and then it will have to start tapping its own cash reserves.

So, if that's all correct then ...
1) SS is technically part of the debt load, but only because of past borrowing by the general fund, not through any fault of its own (so far)

2) The only way to prevent an short-term increase in debt that relates to S.S. is to stop borrowing money from it in the first place.

Right?

edit to add: Please don't bitch about my lazy use of a generic term like "general fund". It's late, I've been sick all week, I don't believe the finer points of precisely who borrows the money from S.S. is germaine to the discussion.

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Social Security isn't a driver of the debt, there's no reason to make big changes to that program.

Sure it's not the entire budget - defense is about even - but this curve isn't at least a worry?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_...aid.2C_by_year

(and wiki has the enacted budget for 2012 at $778.574 billion)

[Edward64]

Obama's approval up, I think this does set the Dems up in stronger position for the forthcoming discussions (but I think Gallup wasn't that accurate in the elections).

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...to-58-percent/

* Congressional leaders met with President Obama and top administration officials this morning to begin discussions on the so-called “fiscal cliff.” “While we’re going to continue to have revenue on the table, it’s going to be incumbent for my colleagues to show the American people that we’re serious about cutting spending and solving our fiscal dilemma,” House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) said. “And I believe that we can do this and avert the fiscal cliff that’s right in front of us today.”
:
:
* As talks begin, Obama’s favorable rating has jumped up to 58 percent, according to a new Gallup poll. That’s his highest number since 2009. The Democratic Party also got a bump, but not the GOP.

* New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and New Mexico Gov. Susana Martinez are the latest Republicans to take issue with Mitt Romney’s comment on “gifts.” “That unfortunately is what sets us back as a party — our comments that are not thought through carefully,” Martinez said at the Republican Governors Association meeting in Las Vegas. Former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty agreed.

FWIW - a picture of Obama having fun. See comments below whether Mitt would have done something like this, I think not myself.

President Obama and McKayla Maroney = not impressed (PHOTO)

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by cuervo72

Sure it's not the entire budget - defense is about even - but this curve isn't at least a worry?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_...aid.2C_by_year

(and wiki has the enacted budget for 2012 at $778.574 billion)

Social Security has a dedicated tax and the SS commissioners say the worst case scenario still has SS paying out 78% of promised benefits and a higher inflation adjusted amount than current.

The problem is medical expenses. Fix medical expenses, fix the debt.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Social Security has a dedicated tax and the SS commissioners say the worst case scenario still has SS paying out 78% of promised benefits and a higher inflation adjusted amount than current.

The problem is medical expenses. Fix medical expenses, fix the debt.

Why not fix it so it's paying out 100% though? And yes, there are several ways to do that, one by raising the cap, and one by moving to a Chained CPI for example. Look - the system isn't part of a debt problem, but that doesn't mean that we shouldn't try to improve it so that it's even more solvent.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

Why not fix it so it's paying out 100% though? And yes, there are several ways to do that, one by raising the cap, and one by moving to a Chained CPI for example. Look - the system isn't part of a debt problem, but that doesn't mean that we shouldn't try to improve it so that it's even more solvent.

Changing it to a chained CPI would mean it won't be paying out at 100% of current promised benefits. I don't know if the chained 100% or current 78% would be higher, but the whole point of going to a chained CPI is to pay out less over time.

The reason I don't want SS part of these talks is that it's taking money from something that isn't in crisis. Medicare/Medicaid is the real problem, but politically it's a lot harder to fix. Lumping in SS makes things easier, but it doesn't solve the real problems.

That's the whole problem with Simpson-Bowles. It gets to a balanced budget by magically stating that medical cost inflation all but stops. They don't say how, it just does. Not dealing with medical costs will make any other deal next to worthless. All changing SS does is change SS.

[Edward64]

I do think Burma has progressed enough to have a visit. Not sure if its strategic or not, Burma borders China. Interesting the article calls it Burma. It was Burma and then changed to Myanmar and now back? I'm all for giving some love to SE Asia.

President Obama defends historic trip to Burma - The Washington Post

BANGKOK — President Obama defended his trip to Burma, insisting the visit Monday is “not an endorsement” of the long-repressive nation’s leadership, but an acknowledgment that the country is making progress toward reform.

“I don’t think anybody is under any illusion that Burma has arrived; that they’re where they need to be,” Obama said during a joint news conference Sunday with Thai Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra to kick off his three-country Asia trip.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Many of those states couldn't survive without others supporting them (Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee). But they'll secede when all the people who are leaving the country because of the election do. It's the same stuff from the losing side every election.

I don't recall seeing a lot of state secession stuff in 2004. Sure, there were quite a few "I'm going to move" folks but that's a far cry from a whole state or even the petitioning we're seeing now. Here were the articles I could find and, frankly, it sounds like the closest we got to secession in 2004 was a couple of dozen folks in Vermont politely talking about it.

Blue State Secession | The Nation
If at first you don’t secede - Salon.com

That said, each will get equally far.

SI

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by JediKooter

Secession petitions filed in 20 states | The Lookout - Yahoo! News

The Whaambulance will be waiting to take you whining little bitches to Canada or Mexico.

I appreciate Perry's approach to this (can't find a full story but here's a shorter version):
Gov. Perry doesn't want Texas to secede

It was basically: "Good deal: I support the right to petition the government. As for Texas, I'm going to get back to creating jobs here."

SI

[molson]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

I don't recall seeing a lot of state secession stuff in 2004. Sure, there were quite a few "I'm going to move" folks but that's a far cry from a whole state or even the petitioning we're seeing now. Here were the articles I could find and, frankly, it sounds like the closest we got to secession in 2004 was a couple of dozen folks in Vermont politely talking about it.

Blue State Secession | The Nation
If at first you don’t secede - Salon.com

That said, each will get equally far.

SI

Wasn't it the Obama administration that started the online petition thing, where they promised a response after X number of signature? It's just a new forum, an official forum even. It's pretty incredible troll bait. (an even then, they got a couple of thousand of signatures each, how many of them were really sincere and not double trolling Republicans, we can't be sure, but it's a minuscule number either way). There were plenty of psycho whiners the previous elections too. Bush was a Nazi, caused 9/11, people definitely called on the U.N. to arrest him for war crimes, he stole the 2004 election (not even 2000 mind you, but 2004, Berkeley professors and RFJ JR. believe this). They just have slightly different tones but its the same kind of stuff.

[JediKooter]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

I appreciate Perry's approach to this (can't find a full story but here's a shorter version):
Gov. Perry doesn't want Texas to secede

It was basically: "Good deal: I support the right to petition the government. As for Texas, I'm going to get back to creating jobs here."

SI

For as many crappy and downright dumb things he said during the primaries, I do commend him not mincing words on this. And (as a side note) Gingrich calling Romney's quote out about 'gifts' that Obama voters received, as being ridiculous.

[sterlingice]

Perry's a lot more of a shrewd operator than I gave him credit for, after doing a bit of reading.

SI

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

I don't recall seeing a lot of state secession stuff in 2004. Sure, there were quite a few "I'm going to move" folks but that's a far cry from a whole state or even the petitioning we're seeing now. Here were the articles I could find and, frankly, it sounds like the closest we got to secession in 2004 was a couple of dozen folks in Vermont politely talking about it.

Blue State Secession | The Nation
If at first you don’t secede - Salon.com

That said, each will get equally far.

I think there was more "I'm leaving the country and moving to a European or Canadian utopia".

[CrimsonFox]

If you ask me, all these thoughts of seceding just takes too much time. I think THIS guy had the right idea of streamlining the process.

Virginia man kills family and himself over fear Obama would be re-elected | The Raw Story

[cuervo72]

Somehow I'm not sure his wife or kids would agree. :|

[JediKooter]

You've got to be kidding me:

Senate bill rewrite lets feds read your e-mail without warrants - Yahoo! News

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by JediKooter

You've got to be kidding me:

Senate bill rewrite lets feds read your e-mail without warrants - Yahoo! News

/Sigh/ Here we go again

SI

[molson]

Leahy was hoping nobody would notice.

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by JediKooter

You've got to be kidding me:

Senate bill rewrite lets feds read your e-mail without warrants - Yahoo! News

Well, it's not like he's trying to infringe on reproductive rights, so...we're all good. Sign him up for three more terms!

[JediKooter]

Originally Posted by molson

Leahy was hoping nobody would notice.

I hope someone notices/remembers, come voting time in his state.


Hmmmmm.....

Leahy draws back support for warrantless email amendment - Yahoo! News

[JediKooter]

Originally Posted by cuervo72

Well, it's not like he's trying to infringe on reproductive rights, so...we're all good. Sign him up for three more terms!

If he was in my state, he would lose my vote (if he ever had it to begin with) just as fast.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by JediKooter

I hope someone notices/remembers, come voting time in his state.


Hmmmmm.....

Leahy draws back support for warrantless email amendment - Yahoo! News

As soon as someone finds out about it... MAGIC! It's gone!

SI

[JediKooter]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

As soon as someone finds out about it... MAGIC! It's gone!

SI

That's what I was thinking too. It's like catching your kid with his hand in the cookie jar and you ask him what he's doing and he says, "I was going to get you a cookie". Suuuurrrrreeee you were.

[Edward64]

I guess this is how they welcome Hillary to the region. I try not stereotype all of Hamas (there's got to be some moderates right?) but its tough after seeing the pictures.

Gaza conflict: Egyptian president says peace in Gaza is 'imminent' and predicts lasting ceasefire will begin from tomorrow | Mail Online

Six men accused of being 'Israeli spies' were dragged through the streets of Gaza City and executed in front of a chanting mob today as Israel warned Palestinians to evacuate some areas of the territory in apparent preparation for a ground invasion.

Witnesses said the six were taken to an intersection in the north of the city where they were summarily shot for providing intelligence that helped Israel pinpoint key figures in Hamas and the Islamic Jihad targeted by their warplanes.

[Galaxy]

The "lasting" ceasefire is underway.

[Edward64]

We'll see how long it lasts, likely not long. But Hillary did talk with Egypt Mursi and he brokered the deal, so hopeful that we are mending relations with Egypt since post-Mubarak.

[Edward64]

Nothing about the US but other winners-losers in the region. I think Obama-Hillary has strengthened the US hand. Publically reinforced US support for Israel and Hillary was able to talk with Egypt to help broker the truce.

After Israel-Gaza: Who won, who lost? - CNN.com

As the dust settled over Gaza and Israel on Thursday amid relative calm, analysts were weighing who were the winners and losers from the conflict. How do the main players in the region now stack up?

Israel: The conflict represents a qualified victory for the country and its Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, according to CNN's Paula Newton. "Just months before an election, Netanyahu's government targeted and killed Hamas' military leader, Ahmed al-Jaabari. Hundreds of airstrikes on Gaza followed, but, the real victory was possibly the combat debut of Iron Dome, the U.S.-funded defense shield that kept dozens of Hamas rockets from hitting Israeli civilians."
:
Hamas: Despite the deaths and destruction in Gaza, the Islamist political movement that rules the territory has emerged emboldened from this conflict and its truce, according to some observers.
:
Fatah: Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and his Fatah faction that governs the West Bank have lost much in this conflict, commented CNN's Newton. "He was supposed to be the moderate peace broker who could finally forge a new deal with Israel. Now he cannot even claim to speak for all Palestinians and has shown that he has no leverage with Hamas, his archrival."
:
Egypt: President Mohamed Morsy, clearly underestimated, deftly navigated what is a minefield of competing interests, including those of his own country.

Hamas has emerged stronger, it has consolidated its control over Gaza and it has gained now more legitimacy.

Morsy proved he had the leverage necessary to bring Hamas to the table and get its leadership to agree to a cease-fire. Brokering that deal has given him much needed political capital in both the Arab world and the United States.
:
Iran: The Islamic republic's nuclear program was one of the unspoken aspects to the conflict, according to world affairs columnist Frida Ghitis. "Iran and its nuclear program also play a powerful psychological role, as observers and participants ponder the parallels between the latest Israel-Hamas conflict and a possible war in which Iran would stand against the U.S. or Israel, and perhaps other NATO allies.
:
But Iran's hand was arguably weakened after this episode as Israel's Iron Dome shot hundreds of its missiles out the sky, CNN's Newton said.

[Edward64]

Thank you Saxby. You will probably get beat next time you run in GA and your local legacy may be tarnished but you are doing the right thing by willing to explore all options.

Some Republicans move away from no-tax pledge - CNN.com

Just ask Sen. Saxby Chambliss, a veteran Georgia Republican who this week turned his back on the Taxpayer Protection Pledge he signed years ago as a rite of passage in right-wing politics.

Immediately labeled "worthless" and "a liar" on the website Tea Party Nation, Chambliss symbolizes the political conundrum facing GOP leaders after President Barack Obama's re-election.
:
"I care more about my country than I do about a 20-year-old pledge," said Chambliss, who faces re-election for a third Senate term in 2014.

Referring to Norquist, who has vowed to oppose candidates who break the pledge, Chambliss said that "if we do it his way, then we'll continue in debt, and I just have a disagreement with him about that."

In response to Chambliss, Norquist told CNN that the senator "wrote a commitment to the voters of Georgia."

"He got elected and re-elected making that commitment," said Norquist. "He's never promised me anything."

Norquist said he believes Chambliss was "caught" on a TV station and that "he said some things perhaps that didn't make sense."

If the senator wants to "change his mind and become a tax increaser," Norquist said, "he needs to have that conversation with the people of Georgia."

Chambliss acknowledged that Norquist and Americans for Tax Reform will likely work against his re-election because of the issue.

"But I don't worry about that because I care too much about my country," Chambliss said, adding that he was "willing to do the right thing and let the political consequences take care of themselves."

[Edward64]

Not good if this is what the Dems are thinking. I get maximizing what you can get (especially if the other guy is down) but the article didn't talk about consequences of going off the cliff - recession?

I don't like this game.

Patty Murray likely to be a key voice in Senate on budget deal - The Washington Post

And so what Murray has to say about the “fiscal cliff,” a combination of tax increases and spending cuts set to take effect in January, may be of particular importance. In a town consumed by talk of the apocalyptic consequences of failing to resolve the budgeting crisis, Murray has been arguing that missing the deadline for a deal — going over the cliff — could actually make getting a deal easier.
:
Starting with a speech at the Brookings Institution in July and continuing in a series of interviews last week, Murray, in her typically non-bombastic fashion, has argued that Democrats shouldn’t take a bad deal in December when their political leverage will only increase in the new year.

That’s because next month, tax cuts first enacted under President George W. Bush will expire for everybody. Murray reasons that might make it easier to get Republicans to agree to reinstate the cuts only for the middle class and let the nation’s wealthiest 2 percent pay more toward the reducing the debt, as Democrats desire.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Thank you Saxby. You will probably get beat next time you run in GA and your local legacy may be tarnished but you are doing the right thing by willing to explore all options.

Sellout Sax is a dead duck come primary season. Treacherous piece of shit deserves the tar & feathers treatment.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Not good if this is what the Dems are thinking. I get maximizing what you can get (especially if the other guy is down) but the article didn't talk about consequences of going off the cliff - recession?

I don't like this game.

Patty Murray likely to be a key voice in Senate on budget deal - The Washington Post

The "cliff" isn't really a "cliff" it's more of a "fiscal slope." There's time after the expiration date to right the ship before the consequences kick in.

[Edward64]

Haven't seen the below discussed. Its actually pretty cool to think US being much less dependant on the ME. I assumed that GWB should get more credit for this but did some googling and surprisingly ... Obama has been a fan of fracking.

http://money.cnn.com/2012/11/12/news...rgy/index.html

LONDON (CNNMoney) -- The United States will overtake Saudi Arabia to become the world's biggest oil producer before 2020, and will be energy independent 10 years later, according to a new forecast by the International Energy Agency.

The recent resurgence in oil and gas production, and efforts to make the transport sector more efficient, are radically reshaping the nation's energy market, reported Paris-based IEA in its World Energy Outlook.
:
North America would become a net exporter of oil around 2030, the global organization said Monday.

"The United States, which currently imports around 20% of its total energy needs, becomes all but self sufficient in net terms -- a dramatic reversal of the trend seen in most other energy importing countries," the IEA stated.

The U.S. is experiencing an oil boom, in large part thanks to high world prices and new technologies, including hydraulic fracking, that have made the extraction of oil and gas from shale rock commercially viable

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

The "cliff" isn't really a "cliff" it's more of a "fiscal slope." There's time after the expiration date to right the ship before the consequences kick in.

Yeah, that's the latest description. I get wanting to set expectations but think the vast majority of people (and the market) will see this as another "delay, kick the can (a 3rd time) down the road".

I tend to side with the markets crashing and us going back into a recession.

But this "short term" pain may be worth the long term health of the country ...

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Yeah, that's the latest description. I get wanting to set expectations but think the vast majority of people (and the market) will see this as another "delay, kick the can (a 3rd time) down the road".

I tend to side with the markets crashing and us going back into a recession.

But this "short term" pain may be worth the long term health of the country ...

The markets aren't going to magically "crash" and send us back into recession if we don't have a comprehensive deal before the fiscal cliff. They're far too rational for that, and they've already priced that (as well as numerous other reasons for lower growth expectations) in.

Don't buy into the media-hysteria so much. Getting a long-term deal is important yes, but it's not a "drop dead moment" like the media is portraying it to be.

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Yeah, that's the latest description. I get wanting to set expectations but think the vast majority of people (and the market) will see this as another "delay, kick the can (a 3rd time) down the road".

I tend to side with the markets crashing and us going back into a recession.

But this "short term" pain may be worth the long term health of the country ...

So I have some time before I lose confidence and yank all my assets out of the markets?

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Dutch

So I have some time before I lose confidence and yank all my assets out of the markets?

I currently have about 30% in bonds. I think I should feel good about this but after the lost decade with 2 recessions in 10 years ... I am thinking about pulling alot/majority out until after Jan/Feb. I get I might miss out on a rally but I'm feeling pessimistic.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I currently have about 30% in bonds. I think I should feel good about this but after the lost decade with 2 recessions in 10 years ... I am thinking about pulling alot/majority out until after Jan/Feb. I get I might miss out on a rally but I'm feeling pessimistic.

Sorry, should have added my safe harbor statement - don't follow me, I'm lousy at the stock market.

[larrymcg421]

Saxby Chambliss is a worthless piece of shit. Just because he decided to stop sucking Grover Norquist's cock doesn't really change that.

[Edward64]

Saxby, Graham, McCain ... I like the trend.

Lindsey Graham: 'I Will Violate The Pledge' To Not Increase Taxes

WASHINGTON -- Several congressional Republicans said Sunday that they would be open to increasing the amount of money the government collects in taxes, with a senior Republican member of the U.S. Senate going so far as to say he is willing to break his earlier promise to not support tax hikes in any form.

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) said he opposes raising income tax rates, but that he is open to increasing tax revenue by reducing the availability of deductions for things like charitable giving and mortgage interest. Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) also said Sunday that he would support limiting deductions.

Doing so would violate Grover Norquist's "Taxpayer Protection Pledge," which both men have signed (as have most Republicans in Congress). Under the pledge, "candidates and incumbents solemnly bind themselves to oppose any and all tax increases," according to the Americans for Tax Reform site.