2009 MLB Regular Season Thread

[Fighter of Foo]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Yeah, it's ridiculous to say someone who was drafted in a round ending in -teen should have been with team X or team Y. Every team had at least 10 chances at him and passed. That said, you don't hear that from other teams' fans about KC, just from Royals fans who want to find something to be 20/20 pissed at.

SI

The point is you shouldn't miss guys in your own backyard. The Braves are the best example of this.

[MrDNA]

Originally Posted by Fighter of Foo

Braves gave up nothing of value for McLouth. No idea why the Pirates would trade him for peanuts. Mclouth (obviously) immediately improves the worst OF in MLB. Glavine was managed horribly; standard MO under Wren.

How does he improve the Nats outfield? By promising not to hit it there?

[Logan]

I think more than what they got in return, Pirates fans should be upset that they finally had a guy who willingly signed a deal with Pittsburgh that would have him in town through 2012 and they dealt him a few months later.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

FWIW, here's the USA Today article the day after Hochevar was taken #1.

University of North Carolina lefty Andrew Miller had been considered a favorite to be taken first until Hochevar became available last week after the Dodgers' deadline to sign him passed. Miller slipped to the Detroit Tigers at No. 6.

In between, Colorado took Stanford right-hander Greg Reynolds at No. 2, Pittsburgh chose righty Brad Lincoln from the University of Houston at No. 4 and Seattle followed with University of California righty Brandon Morrow.

Lincoln was another possibility, iirc. Hochevar did the whole independent league thing so he was the wild card in the draft. That said, he wasn't a Prior or Strasburg-level guy so it's not like it was some great opportunity fell into their lap. He just added another option to wade through.

SI

[DeToxRox]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Lincoln was another possibility, iirc. Hochevar did the whole independent league thing so he was the wild card in the draft. That said, he wasn't a Prior or Strasburg-level guy so it's not like it was some great opportunity fell into their lap. He just added another option to wade through.

SI

Miller was supposed to be that guy but he is still too erratic but he was rushed by the Tigs and then by the Fish. But you know what? He got me some Miguel Cabrera so I'll forever love Dr. Destroyer.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Fighter of Foo

The point is you shouldn't miss guys in your own backyard. The Braves are the best example of this.

Seriously?

The Braves are the only example of where this is touted and it's overblown. It makes for a good story in John Schuerholz's book but it's not reality. You'll occasionally hear stories about local boy does good for home team (i.e. Berkman at Rice and then the Astros) but I don't think you can feasably build an organizational philosophy around it.

Do the Rockies get every player in Colorado? DBacks in Arizona? Mariners in the Pacific northwest? Twins in the upper plains? Are there even that many quality players in the backyards of teams in New York and Boston?

It's just stupid. That's like going into the NFL draft and making a line at say round 4. Everything before you should pick best available and draft for need. Everything after that, you should press hard for local guys. So, the Chiefs should only pick from KU, Mizzou, and K-State when there's a good player that fits their needs better on the board from, say, Boise State or Georgia Tech? Again, it's limiting.

The benefit would have to be that every good talent in the area would want to play for your team no matter what. But are there really a lot of drafted MLB players who would turn down their first big check (first round talents) and only sign with one team and not sign if someone else took them. I think the examples are few and far between. And there aren't nearly enough to offset the fact that you're really limiting your draft pool by only drafting in one region, especially one that's not particularly baseball rich.

Hell, the Royals even had one last year with Tim Melville- he sent out high 1st round level demands but was only a mid 1st round level talent so no one took him until the Royals in the 4th. He sent out a letter telling teams not to draft him but one of the Royals guys got to know him and his family and they signed him for $1.25M. But that's a rare counter-example and not the norm.

SI

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Fighter of Foo

The Braves are the best example of this.

Eh, that's kind of overrated I think.

I mean for every Brian McCann, there's also a flash in the pan like Francouer and completely wasted draft picks (thankfully very late) like John Scheurholz, Jr.

[DeToxRox]

Speaking of the Draft, in 2007 Rick Porcello should've gone top 3 for sure and fell to what, 26th or 27th? I can't believe that many teams wouldn't have even tried taking a flier on signing him.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by DeToxRox

Miller was supposed to be that guy but he is still too erratic but he was rushed by the Tigs and then by the Fish. But you know what? He got me some Miguel Cabrera so I'll forever love Dr. Destroyer.

Hey, I'm jealous of what the Tigers could do. They turned their cash into getting better draft picks (Miller, Maybin) and then turned those unproven prospects into a proven elite hitter.

Frankly, it's just another example of something that needs to change in the next CBA but for now, I hope the Royals continue to take advantage of it as they did last year.

SI

[DeToxRox]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Eh, that's kind of overrated I think.

I mean for every Brian McCann, there's also a flash in the pan like Francouer and completely wasted draft picks (thankfully very late) like John Scheurholz, Jr.

Every team drafts guys late in the draft with family ties. The Tigs one year took Nate Robertson and Joel Zumayas brothers somewhere between the 40th and 50th rounds.

We took our AGM's kid in the 5th round last year for some reason. He could be a decent catcher but that one probably trumps quite a few other head scratchers.

[DeToxRox]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Hey, I'm jealous of what the Tigers could do. They turned their cash into getting better draft picks (Miller, Maybin) and then turned those unproven prospects into a proven elite hitter.

Frankly, it's just another example of something that needs to change in the next CBA but for now, I hope the Royals continue to take advantage of it as they did last year.

SI

The problem is the slotting BS. It's a weak attempt to intimidate owners into toting the line that ends with a verbal berating from the commish, that's it.

But my beef is they want to slot money for the American kids when international FA's who are 16 can make 3 or 4 million dollars in bonuses.

There will never be an International draft, so I am not sure what is right and what is not, but I don't think the commisioners office should tell American kids you should be making this, especially when they're 18 years old, and then let teams sign 16 year old kids from the Dominican to deals that top out at more then a top 5 pick got, especially when the International kid's can choose who they play for.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by Logan

I think more than what they got in return, Pirates fans should be upset that they finally had a guy who willingly signed a deal with Pittsburgh that would have him in town through 2012 and they dealt him a few months later.

Well, it was just a cost certainty deal, all they did was buy out his arb.

But yeah, it's a little bit shady.

[sterlingice]

I still don't see why there can't be an international draft in baseball- it works for basketball on a smaller scale but scale still shouldn't influence.

Why would it not work that you have to register with the internal baseball draft commission or whatever if you want to play. You have to file your paperwork before deadline X to be drafted. Any player not drafted cannot be signed to an MLB or MLB-affiliated team (i.e rookie-AAA). What's so hard about this?

I think the MLBPA members are going to get a bit of a wakeup call this season when they see what Strausburg signs for. It's going to be in the $25-$35M range and I'm sure it will be a major league contract so it's locked in for 6 years.

There are going to be some players who aren't really happy about a player who has never played in the minors, much less the majors, making that kind of cash. Mark Teahen, the Royals rep, was just talking about this yesterday on the radio. The current members might sell out their undrafted "future" brethren so they don't keep taking bigger and bigger pieces out of the veteran pie.

SI

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by DeToxRox

Every team drafts guys late in the draft with family ties.

Oh I was just throwing out a handy name as a meaningless pick.

P Derek Lilliquist (UGA) was the 6th overall pick in 1987.
P Macay McBride (Screven Co. HS) was their top pick in 2001
(two spots ahead of Jeremy Bonderman incidentally)
IF Richard Lewis (Ga Tech) was another 1st round pick in 2001
P Paul Bacot (Lakeside HS) was a 2nd round pick in 2003

More prospects don't make it than do, that's baseball. But I don't really buy the whole Braves backyard thing as much more than a cute p.r. story.

[Fighter of Foo]

I expect the Braves to have scouted GA prospects as good or better than any team in MLB. Same goes for the Mariners in Washington, Brewers in Wisconsin, etc.

Not that you necessarily take those guys, just that you know what's there.

This shouldn't be hard to understand.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Fighter of Foo

I expect the Braves to have scouted GA prospects as good or better than any team in MLB. Same goes for the Mariners in Washington, Brewers in Wisconsin, etc.

Not that you necessarily take those guys, just that you know what's there.

This shouldn't be hard to understand.

But baseball scouting is so inexact. Again, you're complaining about a team that had 12 chances to take a player. ...Just like every other team that had *12* chances to take a player. Teams saw almost 400 players in that draft with more potential than him and all of those teams were wrong. It's an unreasonable standard to single out one team.

SI

[stevew]

How does a guy like hochevar go from being the 40th pick one year to bring the number 1 the next. Tanner Scheppers will have a similar ascention this year.

[Fighter of Foo]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

But baseball scouting is so inexact. Again, you're complaining about a team that had 12 chances to take a player. ...Just like every other team that had *12* chances to take a player. Teams saw almost 400 players in that draft with more potential than him and all of those teams were wrong. It's an unreasonable standard to single out one team.

SI

I'm not complaining at all.

[stevew]

I may be confused on when Luke was drafted the previous year tho.

[Logan]

Maple Leafs?!?!?

Tony La Russa sues Twitter over St. Louis Cardinals manager fake page - ESPN

[DanGarion]

Originally Posted by Logan

Maple Leafs?!?!?

Tony La Russa sues Twitter over St. Louis Cardinals manager fake page - ESPN

And it's all Twitters fault... right.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by DanGarion

And it's all Twitters fault... right.

Seriously...while comments about deceased players are clearly wrong, he sure got a jump on all this himself by passing out drunk in his running SUV as well as his haircut.

[molson]

Originally Posted by Fighter of Foo

I expect the Braves to have scouted GA prospects as good or better than any team in MLB. Same goes for the Mariners in Washington, Brewers in Wisconsin, etc.

Not that you necessarily take those guys, just that you know what's there.

This shouldn't be hard to understand.

That makes sense in college recruiting, where you want to be strong in your home region. That region is your best source of talent, because those players are inherently more likely to want to go to your school.

But in professional sports, there's zero practical connection to your local area in terms of where you draw your talent. Why would the Braves know GA more than anyone else? Every team scouts nationally, nobody focuses on their home areas. The Red Sox are equally (if not more) aware of the high school/college baseball scene in Georgia than the Braves are. There's no advantage to the Braves to specialize in Georgia more than any other area. If this was the NHL 60 years ago and you had territorial rights, you'd know your territory backwards and forwards. But there's no practical reason to do so now.

[Fighter of Foo]

Originally Posted by molson

Why would the Braves know GA more than anyone else?

Because it's X minutes from your stadium??? Your argument is all teams scout everywhere equally and that's ridiculous.

[Logan]

Baseball teams have regional scouts. They scout everywhere equally, at least based on the relative talent level.

[molson]

Originally Posted by Fighter of Foo

Because it's X minutes from your stadium??? Your argument is all teams scout everywhere equally and that's ridiculous.

What difference does it make how close they are to the stadium? All teams have a national scouting network. It's not like they're all hanging out at the stadium and then have to drive or fly out whenever they want to see a player.

For the Red Sox for example, there's plenty of areas that are FAR more important than New England, which isn't exactly known for producing professional athletes. In this day and age, they're not going to know a player at a Worcester High School better than a Georgia Tech player just because of distance. They probably have way more scouts at Georgia Tech games than any New England college or high school. Why would the Red Sox dedicate more resources to the New England area than any other team?

[lordscarlet]

What? You mean Rizzo isn't out on Friday night watching games in Southeast DC?

[Fighter of Foo]

Originally Posted by molson

What difference does it make how close they are to the stadium? All teams have a national scouting network. It's not like they're all hanging out at the stadium and then have to drive or fly out whenever they want to see a player.

For the Red Sox for example, there's plenty of areas that are FAR more important than New England, which isn't exactly known for producing professional athletes. In this day and age, they're not going to know a player at a Worcester High School better than a Georgia Tech player just because of distance. They probably have way more scouts at Georgia Tech games than any New England college or high school.

The difference is you can walk over and see a kid. You can invite them to the stadium to hit or pitch BP. To not do this is the height of stupidity. The Red Sox would be retarded to not have a kid from Brookline HS scouted as well as anyone else in their network.

[molson]

Originally Posted by Fighter of Foo

The difference is you can walk over and see a kid. You can invite them to the stadium to hit or pitch BP. To not do this is the height of stupidity. The Red Sox would be retarded to not have a kid from Brookline HS scouted as well as anyone else in their network.

The scouts don't live in the home stadium. They can "walk over and see a kid" at Georgia Tech if that's where they're assigned. Or any other place in the country.

And I don't think MLB teams invite high school/college kids to their stadiums for private workouts before they're drafted. If that was even allowed, why couldn't they just to that at the kid's home field, wherever he is? They don't have to travel there, they have a scout there already.

It would be incredibly stupid for the Red Sox to have higher scouting coverage, relative to other teams, in New England v. Florida, Texas, Georgia, California - where the real talent is. Why would you have a scout at Brookline High instead of a place that actually produces baseball players?

[Logan]

Nah they should just send the clubhouse attendant. He should be able to diagnose talent and put together a good report.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Originally Posted by DeToxRox

Speaking of the Draft, in 2007 Rick Porcello should've gone top 3 for sure and fell to what, 26th or 27th? I can't believe that many teams wouldn't have even tried taking a flier on signing him.

The Tigers were the first team willing to make him the highest paid high school pitcher in history.

[Fighter of Foo]

Originally Posted by molson

The scouts don't live in the home stadium. They can "walk over and see a kid" at Georgia Tech if that's where they're assigned. Or any other place in the country.

Thanks. I really would have never have figured that out on my own. I had NO IDEA teams actually have scouts based someplace other than their own city.

There's still absolutely zero reason to not have your "home" area scouted as well as anyone else. The cost of having say 50 part time guys at home (coaches, former players, etc.) is about the same as some far lesser number in the Dominican or someplace else far away.

HOW IS THIS HARD TO UNDERSTAND?

[molson]

Originally Posted by Fighter of Foo

Thanks. I really would have never have figured that out on my own. I had NO IDEA teams actually have scouts based someplace other than their own city.

There's still absolutely zero reason to not have your "home" area scouted as well as anyone else. The cost of having say 50 part time guys at home (coaches, former players, etc.) is about the same as some far lesser number in the Dominican or someplace else far away.

HOW IS THIS HARD TO UNDERSTAND?

Ya, there's no reason not to have your home area scouted as well as anyone else, but there's plenty of reasons not to have it more scouted than anyone else. That was your original point, that you shouldn't let a guy get away from "your own backyard". That implies you should have that area covered MORE than any other team.

The "home" team that passes on a player is no more wrong than any other team that passes on a player. There's zero reason Royals scouts should be paying extra special attention to local schools vs. anywhere else. Sure, maybe if they pay closer attention to particular school they would have drafted a good prospect earlier instead of missing out on him. But why is that only true in Kansas City? If they spent extra-special time scouting Oregon, or Rhode Island, they'd probably be less apt to "miss" a guy there.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by molson

That was your original point, that you shouldn't let a guy get away from "your own backyard". That implies you should have that area covered MORE than any other team.

That's how I read it too FWIW.

[samifan24]

Andrew McCutchen enjoyed a good debut with the Pirates today: 2-for-4, 3 runs, an RBI and a SB.

[k0ruptr]

go Big Unit, hes got the lead and seems to be dealing.

[Jas_lov]

AJ Burnett getting suspended 6 games for not even hitting a guy is a fucking joke. MLB should be ashamed of themselves for this ruling. What happened to Vicente Padilla for throwing at Teixera twice? He got released by the Rangers and nobody will pick up his massive salary, but no suspension at all from MLB.

If Padilla gets no suspension, Burnett should have been given an opportunity to protect his teammate without suspension. He didn't even hit the guy! He was sending a message and it got across. Padilla could have hit the whole Yankee lineup and if Burnett retaliated against 1 Texas hitter, Burnett would get suspended. It's a terrible precedent.

[Jas_lov]

Bases are loaded, 2 outs, in the bottom of the 8th as the Giants cling to a 2-1 lead for Johnson's 300th.

[Jas_lov]

Strike 3 called! Giants get out of the inning. Sportscenter said they would show the end if Johnson was going for 300.

[stevew]

I'm hoping for .270/.350/.400. Good defense and baserunning. I think that isn't unreasonable

Originally Posted by samifan24

Andrew McCutchen enjoyed a good debut with the Pirates today: 2-for-4, 3 runs, an RBI and a SB.

[lighthousekeeper]

Originally Posted by stevew

I'm hoping for .270/.350/.400. Good defense and baserunning. I think that isn't unreasonable

maybe he'll even turn into a .285/.365/.420 guy so he can be good enough to get traded away and escape.

[sterlingice]

Unit with win #300.

I'm not sure about the "no one will ever win that again" nonsense. Sure, Unit lasted insanely long but he makes 4 in the last few years. It would be one thing if pitcher usage patterns had changed a ton but they really haven't in the last 20 years. So why 4 recently and never again? We don't have a great group out there right now with possibilities but I think that's just more of a bad stretch or "bad luck" and who knows, maybe in 5 years that leaderboard looks more promising.

SI

[EagleFan]

97 pitch shutout, hopefully a good sign of things to come.

If they can just win at home. 20-6 on the road, unreal.

[k0ruptr]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Unit with win #300.

I'm not sure about the "no one will ever win that again" nonsense. Sure, Unit lasted insanely long but he makes 4 in the last few years. It would be one thing if pitcher usage patterns had changed a ton but they really haven't in the last 20 years. So why 4 recently and never again? We don't have a great group out there right now with possibilities but I think that's just more of a bad stretch or "bad luck" and who knows, maybe in 5 years that leaderboard looks more promising.

SI

If some of these guys around the age of 30 can pitch above averagely with a decent team into their 40's then some have a shot.

As a Chisox fan I look at someone like Mark Buehrle, Doesn't throw hard , hes been durable so far, works quick and has semi low pitch counts. He'd still need to average 13.5 wins a year until hes 42 to get there. Not impossible and could happen. Maybe not likely but there are definitely guys out there that could do it.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by k0ruptr

If some of these guys around the age of 30 can pitch above averagely with a decent team into their 40's then some have a shot.

As a Chisox fan I look at someone like Mark Buehrle, Doesn't throw hard , hes been durable so far, works quick and has semi low pitch counts. He'd still need to average 13.5 wins a year until hes 42 to get there. Not impossible and could happen. Maybe not likely but there are definitely guys out there that could do it.

Buehrle was one of the first guys that popped into my mind when I was thinking about it. I have no idea how many career wins he has(google tells me 128). But he's certainly the type of guy who I could see having the longevity to do so. I'd say he needs to win at least 100 games over the next 6 seasons, though, to seriously enter the conversation for 300.

Andy Pettitte(220) in his age 37 season seems like another guy who's at a point where if he's willing to pitch long enough, I suppose he could get to 300. Assuming he stays with the Yankees who will always be pretty good

And who knows, maybe Jamie Moyer(250) will pitch into his early 50s and finally get there. Although he may have finally hit the wall this year.

Moose was really close at 270, but as a 39 year old there are worse things you can do then walk away from the game after winning 20.

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by Jas_lov

AJ Burnett getting suspended 6 games for not even hitting a guy is a fucking joke. MLB should be ashamed of themselves for this ruling. What happened to Vicente Padilla for throwing at Teixera twice? He got released by the Rangers and nobody will pick up his massive salary, but no suspension at all from MLB.

Nobody would have to. League minimum with Texas on the hook for the rest, I believe?

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by stevew

Andy Pettitte(220) in his age 37 season seems like another guy who's at a point where if he's willing to pitch long enough, I suppose he could get to 300. Assuming he stays with the Yankees who will always be pretty good

Along that line of thought, why not Sabathia? Assuming the Yankees will pretty much spend what it takes to keep a dangerous lineup for the next 6-10, if Sabathia remains healthy, averages the 14.6 wins per that he put up in Cleveland/Milwaukee, and likes New York enough to stay there beyond the contract he just signed, over the next ten years that would put him at 277 in 2019, when he'd be ~38 years old.

Get the average up to just 15.6 wins per, and he'd be at 287 and knocking on the door.

I don't think the era of the 300-win pitcher is gone at all. What I think it's going to take is either a pitcher who comes up with a successful club and pitches for reasonably successful clubs over the course of his career, or a guy who comes up and is good enough to win on bad teams, and eventually goes to a good team so he doesn't have to do the heavy lifting by himself.

In a way, Sabathia kind of fits both points - the Indians won 90+ games three times in his seven full years there (2001, 2005 and 2007) and averaged 75 wins per season in his other four. He still won 100 games - ~14.3 per season, not far off his career pace at all.

Not going to say he WILL do it, but I think he's got a reasonable chance, given the caveats from my first paragraph.

[k0ruptr]

CC was my other choice as well, I just hope his weight and health stay good, and he could give it a good run most likely.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Eh, that's kind of overrated I think.

I mean for every Brian McCann, there's also a flash in the pan like Francouer and completely wasted draft picks (thankfully very late) like John Scheurholz, Jr.

For every Brian McCann (top 5 arb-controlled catcher) I would trade 6 wasted 1st round picks.

Originally Posted by DeToxRox

Speaking of the Draft, in 2007 Rick Porcello should've gone top 3 for sure and fell to what, 26th or 27th? I can't believe that many teams wouldn't have even tried taking a flier on signing him.

It's an ongoing, well, not joke because people are so depressed, but certainly a meme on Red Sox minopr league boards - that Julio Lugo cost us Rick Porcello. There were 3 teams that would have drafted him with his money demands - Detroit happened to be first. Congrats.

Originally Posted by molson

For the Red Sox for example, there's plenty of areas that are FAR more important than New England, which isn't exactly known for producing professional athletes. In this day and age, they're not going to know a player at a Worcester High School better than a Georgia Tech player just because of distance. They probably have way more scouts at Georgia Tech games than any New England college or high school. Why would the Red Sox dedicate more resources to the New England area than any other team?

There are slight economic and geographical reasons why the Red Sox scout Manny Delcarmen (Roxbury Latin) or Ryan Westmoreland (Rhode Island) more than other teams do, but it pretty much comes down to money (spending on overslot players) and luck. People can bitch about the money all the want, but luck is so huge. In Bill Belichick's words "If I knew Tom Brady was that good, I would have traded up to the first pick in the draft!" ... I mean, Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard 5th round+ picks?

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by k0ruptr

CC was my other choice as well, I just hope his weight and health stay good, and he could give it a good run most likely.

Yeah, he's in the perfect situation- long term deal, decent number of wins already, and on a franchise that will keep spending probably his entire tenure. The problem is whether his body might break down before he gets there.

SI