COVID-19 - Wuhan Coronavirus (a non-political thread, see pg. 36 #1778)

[GoldenEagle]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

I think a lot of it based more on the data of what we do know about how China's government operates in general, and what we know they did in this specific instance. From my perspective, I'd totally agree with you that many Chinese doctors were and are heroes, esp. those who gave their lives combating COV-19 when it was at it's most potent and least understood. I also agree that we should listen to medical professionals about what they did well. What I don't agree with is the idea they have any kind of record which justifies confidence in their transparency with reporting numbers, including how they covered up the outbreak initially.

This isn't an indictment of the Chinese people; it is an indictment of their political system and leaders as a whole.

This is correct and much more elegantly put then the way I said it. The Chinese people deserve better leadership.

[JonInMiddleGA]

I think this thread is where the topic of college students & leases/fees/etc was discussed.

An article this morning kinda summarizes the good & bad news students are facing in/around Atlanta.

Georgia students plead to end lease agreements as campuses close

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Her blind trust has impeccable timing and the wherewithal to acquire shares in a teleconferencing company that is flourishing in a pandemic.

Like we've been talking about, the effects of this virus wasn't a secret. China and Italy were dealing with issues before we became serious about it. I can easily see a few financial analysts thinking this is going to be far worse than people are treating it in late February and adjusting their portfolios respectively.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Here is a good article with a best and worst case scenario.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/o....co/tuW24BkM1I

Worst case seems more likely

[Arles]

I can't see us still scrambling a year from now to deal with the virus. I think the death numbers will be close to a million (so closer to worst case), but I think we will be in a good spot to recover by the summer. There will be massive damage to small businesses and higher unemployment, but I think we will be off lockdown and going about our lives again in June/July (albeit in a more careful manner). But I don't see any situation where we are still scrambling to deal with the virus in March of 2021 like the worst case says. That would be unprecedented in our current society for a flu situation.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

It's Friday, and the Dow is up about 400 points so far this morning. Probably another "bear market bounce." If this pattern continues, expect another huge drop on Monday.

Or a drop when the President does this....

PETER ALEXANDER: What do you say to Americans watching right now who are scared?

TRUMP: I say that you are a terrible reporter. That is what I say. I think you had a nasty question. pic.twitter.com/yw1T2HTnT3

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) March 20, 2020

[Edward64]

Per the article, best case is 1.1M deaths. Worse case is 2.2M deaths.

CDC estimates Oct 2019 to mid-Mar 2020, there have been 390K-710K hospitalizations and 23K-59K deaths.

2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season: Preliminary Burden Estimates | CDC

So even in best case, far exceeds flu mortality.

I am somewhat optimistic we won't get near 1.1M deaths because of everything that has already been implemented and promised in near future (e.g. more testing and therefore more awareness).

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Here is a good article with a best and worst case scenario.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/o....co/tuW24BkM1I

Headed towards the same path as China. Things will be looking much better 1.5 months from now. A lot of bigger companies and states have taken HUGE steps to slow this down. I feel much more positive about things than I did just 3 days ago. A lot of the comparison stats look solid in comparison to countries that let it get out of control.

[tarcone]

A school district about 45 minutes away from me cancelled school for the rest of this school year.

[bob]

I think Kansas is closed for the school year.

[cartman]

It took 3 months to log the first 100,000 cases, 12 days for the next 100,000. Even with increased testing that is a massive jump

[Brian Swartz]

Not everyone jumping on the 'shelter in place' bandwagon; Gov. Whitmer says she currently has no plans for any such type of order. Also, Michigan has virtually no new confirmed cases (1 or 2) in the last 24 hours, which I'm taking as a sign we've run out of tests for the time being. And Italy's worst day yet, which is saying something. Meanwhile the global death rate for closed cases has risen 12 days in a row. That's not an indicator of overall mortality rate necessarily because of how long it takes someone to labeled as recovered, but I'm looking forward to the time when that stops rising. Even if we'll never have any real idea how many people in the developing world were knocked off by this.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by cartman

It took 3 months to log the first 100,000 cases, 12 days for the next 100,000. Even with increased testing that is a massive jump

I'll be shocked if we don't reach the point where we see that many daily.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Not everyone jumping on the 'shelter in place' bandwagon; Gov. Whitmer says she currently has no plans for any such type of order.

That's what Cuomo said previously but he has effectively put PAUSE in place which is the same thing. I think there will be too much pressure on the many state pols to not do something similar if there are large concentrations (like in CA and NY).

What has surprised me some is I get big cities and surrounding suburbia, I'm not sure entire state needs to be shelter-in-place just as long as social distancing is practiced.

Good bet that Atlanta will shelter-in-place sooner or later though.

[AlexB]

Boris Johnson has just ordered all pubs, bars, clubs, restaurants, cafes, leisure centres, theatres, etc to close. Previously we were asked not to go, now they are ordered to shut, immediately.

I’m sure I heard them include shops at one point, but it hasn’t been repeated and isn’t coming up on the news ticker

Edit: a journalist heard the same and clarified the same. Shops not on the list. Yet?

[Brian Swartz]

Do you know if the governor has the authority to put something in place which affects only cities and not the rest of the state? I honestly don't know how the law works on stuff like that or if it would be seen as stepping on the authority of local mayors or whatever. Just thinking that might be a possible reason, I agree that cities should in a perfect world be treated differently.

[tarcone]

Confirmed cases in MO jumped from 28 to 47 overnight. Testing has just begun in earnest here.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Do you know if the governor has the authority to put something in place which affects only cities and not the rest of the state? I honestly don't know how the law works on stuff like that or if it would be seen as stepping on the authority of local mayors or whatever. Just thinking that might be a possible reason, I agree that cities should in a perfect world be treated differently.

The issue likely would be that people from cities may go just out of them and congregate and crowd those bars. And then making the decision would likely involve all sorts of headaches and would take time.

For example if you did that for the City of Atlanta, it likely wouldn't help much consider the population of Atlanta is 500k while the Atlanta Metro Area is 6mil. And if you do the metro area, there are definitely some very suburban and spread out areas in those counties.

[bob]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

The issue likely would be that people from cities may go just out of them and congregate and crowd those bars. And then making the decision would likely involve all sorts of headaches and would take time.

For example if you did that for the City of Atlanta, it likely wouldn't help much consider the population of Atlanta is 500k while the Atlanta Metro Area is 6mil. And if you do the metro area, there are definitely some very suburban and spread out areas in those counties.

Isn't that what happened in Italy? They tried to shut down one section and people just fled that area and spread it elsewhere?

[cartman]

Poor Dr. Fauci pic.twitter.com/BFwwE9XS0o

— Rogue Melania�������� (@RogueFirstLady) March 20, 2020

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

Headed towards the same path as China. Things will be looking much better 1.5 months from now. A lot of bigger companies and states have taken HUGE steps to slow this down. I feel much more positive about things than I did just 3 days ago. A lot of the comparison stats look solid in comparison to countries that let it get out of control.

I don't want to give specifics, but Duracell has taken amazing measures to protect plant workers in the US. Hopefully all manufacturing companies are doing the same.

[spleen1015]

When I was in MD earlier in the week, I watched the MD governor talk about working with the governors from surrounding states, trying to get them all to do the same thing. His concern was if MD goes one thing to limit access to things like bars, etc. folks will just drive to Virginia to hit up bars.

So, if you locked down a metro area, folks in those areas are just going to go outside of those areas.

If they lock down metro Atlanta, I think it gives be the idea that other areas aren't as bad, therefore they'll go out more. We don't want that.

[Kodos]

Our town just had its first verified case.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Or a drop when the President does this....

PETER ALEXANDER: What do you say to Americans watching right now who are scared?

TRUMP: I say that you are a terrible reporter. That is what I say. I think you had a nasty question. pic.twitter.com/yw1T2HTnT3

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) March 20, 2020

Didn't you get the memo to keep politics out of this thread? Jesus, who runs this place?

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I don't want to give specifics, but Duracell has taken amazing measures to protect plant workers in the US. Hopefully all manufacturing companies are doing the same.

They seem to be putting health of the nation ahead of profits at the moment. I work for Verizon and they have been amazing at keeping exposure risk at a minimum while keeping enough employees staffed to help with emergency situations.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

The issue likely would be that people from cities may go just out of them and congregate and crowd those bars. And then making the decision would likely involve all sorts of headaches and would take time.

For example if you did that for the City of Atlanta, it likely wouldn't help much consider the population of Atlanta is 500k while the Atlanta Metro Area is 6mil. And if you do the metro area, there are definitely some very suburban and spread out areas in those counties.

Originally Posted by bob

Isn't that what happened in Italy? They tried to shut down one section and people just fled that area and spread it elsewhere?

Its happening where I live right now. Lots of people fleeing NY and coming to their vacation homes on the Jersey Shore. Inevitably some of these people will get sick and the way things are now could be refused a test and likely care.

They are more doing it because things look to be getting worse in NYC, but same concept applies.

[spleen1015]

I don't think I can really blame those people. I think I would do the same thing, run from danger.

Not saying you are, btw.

[bob]

Right, I'd probably flee from higher density to lower if I could and was in that scenario. Supposedly NYC is 2 - 3 weeks from being out of medical supplies.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by spleen1015

I don't think I can really blame those people. I think I would do the same thing, run from danger.

Not saying you are, btw.

I am.

Isiddiqui will tell you. Those of us native to the Jersey Shore absolutely despise the New Yorkers who take over our towns and roads then act like they own the place.

[GoldenEagle]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Per the article, best case is 1.1M deaths. Worse case is 2.2M deaths.

CDC estimates Oct 2019 to mid-Mar 2020, there have been 390K-710K hospitalizations and 23K-59K deaths.

2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season: Preliminary Burden Estimates | CDC

So even in best case, far exceeds flu mortality.

I am somewhat optimistic we won't get near 1.1M deaths because of everything that has already been implemented and promised in near future (e.g. more testing and therefore more awareness).

That is not what the article said. The worse case scenario projects a range of 1.1M to 2.2M.

[grdawg]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Just a heads up for Georgia people. I have it from two different people (one a county official and one. from GMA), Governor Kemp is likely to announce closing all non-essential business Friday.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

Is this still going to happen? I feel like it needed to already happen with cases and deaths going up in the past few days outside of metro Atlanta. I originally thought the governor was doing a decent job (shockingly), but we need to lock this state down NOW

[Lathum]

I'm curious why grocery stores haven't gone to 100% curbside. Seems if they shifted all their resources to that as opposed to cashiers, stockers, etc...it would be safer for all.

[bob]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I'm curious why grocery stores haven't gone to 100% curbside. Seems if they shifted all their resources to that as opposed to cashiers, stockers, etc...it would be safer for all.

To do that, you have to have a pretty good system of inventory and ordering. Easy with something like boxes of cereal, less for for fruit and meat.

(I do not know if current online ordering allows for this. Target doesn't let you do meat with order pickup).

[Brian Swartz]

Not only that, but you'd need a LOT more employees to do what customers do now - grabbing what they need, filling the carts, self check-out, etc. When your currently employees are working extra hours and still sometimes can't keep up with the demand, scaling it up to that level isn't feasible in the short-term.

[Brian Swartz]

Illinois joining the 'shelter-in-place' brigade starting tomorrow. First midwest state to take that step afaik. Today I went inside my local bank for the last time; they're going to drive-up only, lobby restricted to appointments only. The dominoes continues to fall.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Isiddiqui will tell you. Those of us native to the Jersey Shore absolutely despise the New Yorkers who take over our towns and roads then act like they own the place.

x100000

Not to mention what they do to the traffic.

[Vince, Pt. II]

I'm struggling dealing with a workgroup that is still being asked to enter the homes of customers for critical gas appliance relights and turn ons. They're frustrated that some of the workgroup is taking time off - per the company and union guidelines - with pay without having to spend their personally accrued paid time off while the rest of them are out here responding to emergencies and putting themselves at risk.

Been a rough few days trying to keep morale up in our workgroup.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Not only that, but you'd need a LOT more employees to do what customers do now - grabbing what they need, filling the carts, self check-out, etc. When your currently employees are working extra hours and still sometimes can't keep up with the demand, scaling it up to that level isn't feasible in the short-term.

Would you though? Reallocate the people who stock the shelves, collect the carts, sweep the floors, etc...

[molson]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Would you though? Reallocate the people who stock the shelves, collect the carts, sweep the floors, etc...

All of those things still have to happen when people are ordering online.

Plus most of these services are pretty new and don't have the capability of things like real-time info on what's in stock. It's basically just sending the store a list and having the employees do what you would do in the store, with the extra steps of taking it to your car or delivering it and the administrative tasks involved with opening and closing those requests (and responding to errors and complaints and IT issues). Edit: The role of "shopper" (the employee who goes around the shelves and fills your orders) has increased a ton and has strained overall staff. It's party why they're limiting hours. They need more time for people just to do their regular job like stocking the shelves, sweeping the floors, and the extra disinfecting they're doing.

Amazon is doing this stuff pretty efficiently with Whole Foods because that's their whole business, but most grocery stores just don't have that technology to make this run efficiently with fewer workers. Walmart ended up cancelling all pending online grocery orders a few days ago because it just couldn't fill them all with the stock and staff it had available.

Plus in my state, the stores that have been hit the hardest are the cheapest stores like WINCO. The people that are already food-insecure or more likely to shop there. Not everybody has internet or even a stable housing situation. The libraries closing cutoff internet access for many people. Going to online-only ordering would cut the food supply off for a lot of Americans.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by Molson

Amazon is doing this stuff pretty efficiently with Whole Foods because that's their whole business, but most grocery stores just don't have that technology to make this run efficiently with fewer workers. Walmart ended up cancelling all pending online grocery orders a few days ago because it just couldn't fill them all with the stock and staff it had available.

Yep. I think there are some tasks that you could get rid off from your standard grocery store with a curbside model, but not very many - and you're absolutely right about the fact that Amazon is designed for this, grocery stores aren't (as in, physically designed with the systems and technology required). Also very true is the number of people who aren't online and would therefore be screwed.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

That is not what the article said. The worse case scenario projects a range of 1.1M to 2.2M.

I re-read the article again. The 2.2M worse case and the 1.1M best case were quoted under the "worst case" section (so see your point) but there was not # for the "best case" section so took/assumed 1.1M to apply there.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by grdawg

Is this still going to happen? I feel like it needed to already happen with cases and deaths going up in the past few days outside of metro Atlanta. I originally thought the governor was doing a decent job (shockingly), but we need to lock this state down NOW

My understanding now is no. His original plan was to follow expert advice continue to move toward it. But special interest (ie. who got him elected) convince him not to.

[cartman]

wait, grdawg and GrantDawg are two different posters?

mindblown

[IlliniCub]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Illinois joining the 'shelter-in-place' brigade starting tomorrow. First midwest state to take that step afaik. Today I went inside my local bank for the last time; they're going to drive-up only, lobby restricted to appointments only. The dominoes continues to fall.

With the uncertainty of job stuff and our original wedding being postponed, we are literally going to be scrambling tonight to find someone to sign our marriage license so I can get on her insurance before the shut down order. It's the Corona version of a shotgun wedding

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by cartman

wait, grdawg and GrantDawg are two different posters?

mindblown

No, I am talking to my split-personality.

[grdawg]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

My understanding now is no. His original plan was to follow expert advice continue to move toward it. But special interest (ie. who got him elected) convince him not to.

I know no political talk and sorry, but I thought it was invalidating many votes, which got him elected. Anyway, this is going to cost lives. It's going to happen sooner than later so better be earlier.

[Poli]

I got some unintentional job security this afternoon. Working from home this week, I've been a little nervous about the construction/metal business potentially shutting down. They shut down and my metal forming controls company won't have a lot to do. However, the boss checked in with me today asking how I was doing and if I needed anything.

I have one customer that installed some of our equipment and it's not working properly. I'll have no choice but go in to the office to work with an engineer on it to figure out what the problem is. I thought she might say I might need you to take time off after that. Instead, she told me to get it taken care of and get back home. Take equipment with you so you can update the manual (of the specific equipment I install/troubleshoot). That'll give me plenty to do for the next week or two. I won't complain.

[grdawg]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

No, I am talking to my split-personality.

Ha, from now on I'll disagree with everything you post

[whomario]

Terrible Stat of the day, no link since (german podcast): right now Covid19 deaths are adding 20-25 % to the normal average of daily deaths during march in Italy as a whole.

My town in Germany just instituted a 2-person limit for 'assembling' outside, last ditch effort to break infection chains before it can truly gain steam ... Several friends of mine work in hospitals and they are doing drills for hours to be prepared, learning new procedures and handling equipment not usually part of their job.

And that is happening while there are currently only 2 in the hospital (roughly 100 positive tests) and nobody involved is in doubt they will be glad to have went that 'extra mile' early when is all said and done.

[Edward64]

One crummy week (almost) behind us. At least a couple more to go through.