07-09-2009, 11:24 PM | #1801 | |
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Thank you!
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07-09-2009, 11:26 PM | #1802 |
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I say we bring henry and one from his list up for lynch vote. As laid out above we learn exactly what we need to know either way. If he is telling the truth his power has been shot anyway and is of no use from here out.
The seer role should scan someone else from the list. Jackal seems to be vocal about his vote, maybe him? We either find another wolf with that scan or clear someone from the questionable list. At that point it is a slam dunk victory. My concern is worst case scenario. Best case henry is telling the truch and we win no matter what at this point. Worst case he is the traitor and is leading us down a path to end game for the wolves. Our goal should be learning as much as possible with every lynch. Making henry the second candidate achieves that. |
07-09-2009, 11:28 PM | #1803 | |
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you're overstating things - the first time i said i was "leaning towards a vote for you" and never even put one on you. WTF is with everyone having their panties in a wad this game? Henry's list matches up with mine though (with the exception of eliminating two additional suspects - one of whom i have as questionable and one who i hope to move off the list entirely). And we've arrived at them through entirely different sources...what do you have to say about that?
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07-09-2009, 11:32 PM | #1804 |
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Either way, I am going to get some sleep.
Please think over what I have proposed. How is that a desperate move? If I was a wolf why would I offer up CR on day 2 when no wolves were lost as of yet, especially with his role? I am simply trying to keep us from potentially being led the wrong way. We hedge our bets and win either way. |
07-09-2009, 11:32 PM | #1805 |
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I'm off to bed for the evening and won't be able to respond until tomorrow evening by then I hope we have a lynch. I think Thomkal is the right place to start given his unwillingness to move towards CR.
Sure you can test to see if I'm the traiotr since we have already got the pool of wolves and one mis-step won't cost the game with about 12/13 villagers and 4 wolves left. However, you will be wrong. Also, does the traitor usually know the identies of the wolves? I still believe that with EagleFan's power he is good, but the harder he keeps pushing, the more likely I will be to consider you as one of the wolves. Especially with four wolves left, I can't even see how this would be a end-game play. I'll throw this out there now, but the only way my list could lead us astray is if there is a cunning wolf and it caused me to be told there were no conspirators and there is really one. As we get closer to the end, we should be able to figure it out.
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07-09-2009, 11:32 PM | #1806 |
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that being said - we can at least give your idea a shot...sure.
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07-09-2009, 11:33 PM | #1807 | |
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See the results of the first two lynches. I can't exactly trust what you have on your list. None of us should blindly trust that. |
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07-09-2009, 11:33 PM | #1808 |
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hmmm
UNVOTE EAGLEFAN
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07-09-2009, 11:34 PM | #1809 | |
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I prefer to believe henry for selfish reasons. ntn has proved himself fairly effectively. As I think I've mentioned nfg comes off to me as sensitive misguided villager. DT seems to feel all right about saldana. That leaves me, PB and henry if you want to go this route. PB is being investigated (did I see that somewhere?) so he should become clear. I've given DT my info and see no need to reveal it in public. I don't know. I think it's easier to believe henry's story than not.
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07-09-2009, 11:35 PM | #1810 |
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It seems like a very risky play unless henry is cunning and made up his powers. But that seems doubtful.
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07-09-2009, 11:36 PM | #1811 | |
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LOL i explicitly stated that i didn't have any degree of trust in either of those first two lynched people. i find it curious how you're so against trusting any of my information despite the fact that i am the only villager that you know is good and a huge asset to the village.
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07-09-2009, 11:39 PM | #1812 |
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I'm with DT on that one, EF. He never suggested he felt strongly that KWhit or clap were bad. He never even really suggested he had any info, it was just suspicions. Now these lists are being based off of people's abilities.
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07-09-2009, 11:43 PM | #1813 | |
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your last sentence is incorrect. these lists now are based off of more than that (with the exception of ntn and purduebrad)
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07-09-2009, 11:43 PM | #1814 | |
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Bare with me here: If there are 4 wolves left it is 12-4 now (if I counted right there are 16 people left) If henry is the traitor and we lynch someone from his list that is a villager it is 10-4 after the night kill. What do we do next? Do we lynch him or hope that we just picked the wrong person from his list? If we take option A from above we drop to 8-4 and are back to square one. Not end game but it puts us close enough for them as we will have wasted several days on hunches and then trickery by the traitor. If we chose option B we end up in a really bad position as we lynch a villager and go to 8-4 before turning on henry and that lynch makes it 6-4. We are then one bad lynch away from losing. This is assuming the wolves can't make multiple kills. They had a kill and an attempt on Jack tonight based on the write up. If they can do multiple kills again it becomes that much more dangerous. Maybe I am overthinking but at least we can learn the truth if we make him the second candidate. If he is what he says we are at 10-4 and have a very narrow list to chose from (in which the votes should probably be able to tell us who is bad). Especially if we can scan someone from the list tonight as we can potentially narrow that list down even more. I see no way that we can lose by taking that approach. |
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07-09-2009, 11:44 PM | #1815 |
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07-09-2009, 11:46 PM | #1816 |
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I think, EF, that DT is suggesting he knows henry is good unless he is cunning, which means he has gotten a scan by some means, which means the only way your scenario works is if henry is the cunning. Is that right?
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07-09-2009, 11:46 PM | #1817 |
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I don't argue with your math though, I don't want it to be 8-4 like that.
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07-09-2009, 11:47 PM | #1818 |
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Especially since I've watched multiple seasons of 24, and most of them have threats of mass-killing, which can't bode well for us. I wouldn't put it past hoops and BK to have death girls and such running around in the form of nuclear weapons or airborne gases.
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07-09-2009, 11:48 PM | #1819 |
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EF, are you suggesting not to vote for say Thomkal and instead take a shot on henry's list?
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07-09-2009, 11:48 PM | #1820 |
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I think he's suggesting we vote for henry instead of thomkal
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07-09-2009, 11:49 PM | #1821 |
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at this point the seer should continue to stay hidden btw - until there is either another wolf that they discover (if we are not on that person already that day), or until they can add say...3 more people to the CoT (the two people who are linked for instance, by scanning the one with the longer screenname, and then someone else who is on the list of suspected people)
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07-09-2009, 11:50 PM | #1822 | |
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you are correct about that
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07-09-2009, 11:50 PM | #1823 | |
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I am just trying to give us a way to cover all of our bases and guarantee a win even under the worst case scenario. How can what I proposed become a bad thing? At worst it delays our victory by a day. I still can't believe that no one has questioned henry's claimed ability. I think that sounds potentially too powerful to be true. Great for us if it is but I have always held the belief that no power should have the ability to produce potentially multiple hits and thus change the game in one moment to end game as it pretty much discounts what everyone else within the game has done. |
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07-09-2009, 11:52 PM | #1824 |
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It doesn't sound that powerful. He saved it for a good time when he seems to have gotten lucky by having no wolves vote with him.
Though now that I think about it, somewhat strange that no wolves would be on Telle with CR in the running? |
07-09-2009, 11:54 PM | #1825 |
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We could just lynch Thomkal and deal with the henry situation tomorrow though, EF. It'd give people another day to gather evidence that potentially proved or disproved what henry said.
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07-09-2009, 11:55 PM | #1826 | |
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Suppose we lynch henry - what if the PM that we get doesn't fully spell out every inch of his powers? Are you going to believe him then, or not? Cuz I can see if you're a wolf how you'd hope for that and then twist it to fit your ends
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07-09-2009, 11:56 PM | #1827 | |
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How powerful is it if it comes back saying there was one wolf in that group? Not very. It's the fact that nobody in that group came back as a wolf that makes it powerful.......and it's also a pretty unlikely result. I think we caught a break. Now, if we get nowhere in the next day or so, I'm more than willing to revisit the idea. But right now I think we've got more productive outlets (and yes, I realize that being on the list might affect how you read this post).
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07-09-2009, 11:56 PM | #1828 |
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I say put someone from henry's list up against henry. I would rather we have a voting history instead of a slam dunk runaway. Personally, I would rather see henry lynched first to see if he is telling the truth. If he is then we go after his list for the win. If he is the traitor and was lying to us than we have only lost one day. From there we look at DT's list, most likely the ones that henry clears with his list. |
07-09-2009, 11:57 PM | #1829 | |
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Every snippet that we have gotten after death/lynch spells out the powers. It should be pretty obvious. |
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07-10-2009, 12:06 AM | #1830 |
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A bit tipsy, but I'm glad to see that we got one of the wolves in CR. I also am a little bit suspicious of henry's power (and not just because he seems to finger me) for the simple reason that I think ER is correct that it would be suspicious for none of the wolves to vote for Telle considering that she was the first person to start hammering on CR. You would think at least one would try to protect their own, right? The fact that none did appears to be very weird.
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07-10-2009, 12:08 AM | #1831 | |
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No power should be that potentially powerful. The games should be decided by the choices the players make and not one power that could potentially produce multiple hits and end the game. If it is his power than so be it. We learn, we lynch, we win. How simple can it be in that case? If we get nowhere in the next day or so? That is just what the wolves would want. If we get nowhere in the next day or so than we have almost handed them the game as we will have learned NOTHING. What possible problem could you have with this if you are not a wolf? At worst it potentially delays us one f*&#*ng day. At best it keeps us from wasting "a day or so" WITHOUT LEARNING ANYTHING. This IS the most productive outlet. I am dumbfounded how anyone that is a villager can see this as a bad idea? Hell, with the lynch percentage rules it may not even be one full day that we lose as we can pretty much lynch away if we see he is telling the truth. |
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07-10-2009, 12:12 AM | #1832 | |
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Well, personally I'm pretty dumbfounded that you would want to take the momentum we got from today's lynch and reveals and ignore them in favor of an angle that frankly doesn't seem very high percentage to me. And banging your head against the wall at comments that are trying to engage you doesn't compel me to pursue the conversation much further. But hey, investigate away. I'm not convinced though and will be looking at other angles.
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07-10-2009, 12:17 AM | #1833 |
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oh man - guys henry won't be on until like 8:30 tomorrow night.
so we might have to wait some time for a lynch. i was just thinking that we could certainly use the help of a particular individual with this one...
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07-10-2009, 12:21 AM | #1834 | |
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What other angles can you possibly investigate? You seem to believe henry and if he is telling the truth it is GAME OVER and nothing left to investigate. If he is lying we learn nothing as we lynch a villager and then lynch him. and are just closer to losing. If we lynch him and he is telling the truth all we do is WIN ONE DAY LATER. If we lynch him and find out he is lying we learn a lot and don't waste time following a cold trail. What is so difficult to understand here? We hedge out bets and increase our odds. What can we possibly lose by doing this? Not one person can answer that. |
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07-10-2009, 12:22 AM | #1835 |
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You think that'll be positive for the village, eh?
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07-10-2009, 12:22 AM | #1836 |
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That was a question for DT, btw.
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07-10-2009, 12:23 AM | #1837 | |
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Well I mean it's not game over, it's not like we'd have every single wolf nailed down. We'd have a pretty small group to choose from, but there seem to be a lot of things happening in this game. |
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07-10-2009, 12:33 AM | #1838 | |
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We would have a list of what? 6 people with 3 or 4 of them being wolves? If there are 4 we would be sitting at 10-4. Even if we pick the wrong two on the first two chances it's still 6-4 and we would pick them off one at a time after that. If there are 3 then we are at 11-3. If we pick the first 3 wrong it's still 5-3 and we pick them off one at a time. Worst case scenario is that he is a traitor who is lying. We lynch a villager and are at 10-4 but with no good list to go on. If we then lynch him to get rid of the potential confusion he could try to cause it's 8-4 and we still have no good list. Weigh risk versus reward and it looks clear to me. We can basically run out the clock by kneeling. Why do we want to risk throwing the ball? |
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07-10-2009, 12:37 AM | #1839 |
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I wouldn't just assume there is going to be a normal lynch/kill timeline in this game, man.
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07-10-2009, 12:38 AM | #1840 |
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But I definitely understand your argument. It does seem unlikely he's the cunning wolf, but it's possible.
I still find it likelier that Thomkal is a wolf, but I'll sleep on what you said. |
07-10-2009, 12:38 AM | #1841 | |
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no good list to go on? how about my list that matches his and was arrived at by completely different means? are you just throwing that out entirely??
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07-10-2009, 12:42 AM | #1842 |
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07-10-2009, 12:42 AM | #1843 |
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are you sitting there trying to build a case for throwing out my list EagleFan??
really??
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07-10-2009, 12:43 AM | #1844 |
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Still no one person has offered any valid reason for why this is a bad idea. Anyone?
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07-10-2009, 12:44 AM | #1845 |
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BK is out for the night and I'll be hit (and mostly miss) for the next couple of hours ... don't break anything for awhile, OK?
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07-10-2009, 12:45 AM | #1846 | |
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wow. really?? VOTE EAGLEFAN
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07-10-2009, 12:45 AM | #1847 | |
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I am trying to cover our bases. What is wrong with that? It guarantees us a win and keeps us from any potential shenanigans. Tell me how much you can trust your list if henry turns up traitor? Then your arguement of "arrived at the same list" doesn't hold much water. I am not saying that this is the case but why not take precautions to make sure it isn't. |
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07-10-2009, 12:46 AM | #1848 | |
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Not worried about cunning. It wouldn't be a good play if he were cunning. Worried about traitor. This is 24 after all so why wouldn't there be a traitor? |
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07-10-2009, 12:49 AM | #1849 | |
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100% my list is based on my interrogations, soothsayer results, and seer scans. it has absolutely nothing to do with henry's list. the two are entirely unrelated - they just both happen to arrive at the same conclusions. i'll put that up against your crazy theories 7 days of the week, and twice on sundays. i think it's becoming increasingly clear to me minute by minute that you're most likely a wolf grasping at straws or else off-your-rocker.
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07-10-2009, 12:50 AM | #1850 |
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notice how EagleFan is trying to build a case already to throw out my list everyone - just want to point that out very clearly to everyone.
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