LXXVIII: Politicus Lupus (GAME OVER!! SEE POST #2593 FOR RESULTS)

[chesapeake]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

FWIW, heinz brought up the whole "district" thing in the Republican thread. PB asked a question about the rules -- he wanted to know if the Democrats would win by killing the Republicans off, regardless of wolf killing. Heinz went to quote the win conditions in the rules when he made his "discovery" -- I was worried about that (as chesapeake can attest to), but the way heinz mentioned it in the Republican thread seemed pretty natural to me.

I can verify that Pass and I discussed the wolf win conditions before Heinz brought it up.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Chubby

Since I'm online I'll bite.

You have pinged a LOT of people as a wolf this game, in the Dem thread at the very least. As Pass said, how do we know this isn't an endgame play? Come out 1st, early in the morning to gain the trust real quick and downplay any other seer reveals as "obviously fake".

It's convienent that two of your "scans" are dead and one you claim is wolf. The other? One that seems to have a lot of trust (tho not based on anything)

I'll answer as best I can

- I've intentionally walked a fine line this game. Not only is it my general tact lately in games (roled, wolf or not, if you look I've been a near candidate in like each of the last 4-5 games I've been in), but I think it likely kept me from getting night killed since why would the wolves night-kill me if they think I'm going to get myself lynched? I knew I could do it because if I thought I'd actually get lynched, I'd have revealed.

- As far as Cronin/RendeR dead and Tyrith having trust, well, I scanned who I scanned.

Cronin was acting weird the first days in the Repub thread, so I scanned him figuring it was a matter of time before he brought that to this one and got heat.

Then when Day Two's results (I didn't become Seer until night one, so no night one scan) brought 2 dead Repubs, plus of course I knew I was good, I was down to 6 candidates there.

So I went with the tact to start scanning only them. Even when Mrs. S was lynched I stuck with it, when really, it wasn't necessarily in my best interest for the wolf that I uncover to be a Repub. Night 3 I scanned Tyrith since it has been basically myself, Pass and Tyrith leading the Repub charge. I had a good feeling Pass was a villager, so I scanned Tyrith to know where he was coming from.

Night 4 I chose Render, as my candidates were him, PB, illini and Pass. Again, I had a villager read on Pass and zero read on illini. PB the other repubs seemed to trust, so I chose RendeR and then last night PB.


- As far as coming out early, I don't believe in wasting time. I hemmed for a minute on if I should slow play it, but figured I didn't have enough overall trust to do so (Had for instance PF been a wolf, I might have, since people probably would've had more inherent trust for me)

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by illinifan999

Was there any reason you scanned PB instead of mccollins since that was the other person there was a huge wolf vote on?

Just odds. When I put in my order there was a 1 in 3 shot if I went Repub and a 2 in 7 shot if I went Dem (counting PF, since he was alive when I left).

Also, going back to trust, I figured that if I *did* find a wolf, the Dems were more likely to believe me, as they should, if it's a fellow Repub and not one of their own.

[Passacaglia]

Also, I do recall heinz saying he trusts Tyrith on a few occasions. I don't remember which thread, but I do remember it.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Chubby

and if scanning people in your party, why wouldn't you scan illinifan the president?

No read on him whatsoever. Plus I figured it harder to lynch the president given it's been mentioned and given no traction.

[illinifan999]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Also, I do recall heinz saying he trusts Tyrith on a few occasions. I don't remember which thread, but I do remember it.

He has, I believe it was mostly in our thread.

[Passacaglia]

While we're sorting out your truthiness heinz, I'll throw in a recommendation that if you get elected President, you scan mccollins. We'll have time to get you a lot of scans, but we can't afford even a chance of a bad lynch.

[chesapeake]

VOTE YES ON CARP

Do we need to elect a new Speaker or does Henry get it?

[jeheinz72]

A couple of you mentioned this as some sort of "end-game" play if I'm a wolf. Well lets look at a few things

Assumptions:

- If lying, I'm the 2nd Repub wolf
- If lying, PB is good
- 2 Dem wolves

So I "get" PB lynched. Let's say then that Tyrith gets 4th district and illini the 5th. That'd be no net gain for the wolves, district-wise.

Let's say then that we night-kill a Dem, for this case let's have Collins and his 3 dist's be my partner and Chubby be the 4th wolf. So we night-kill Chesapeaker and Collins picks a dist up. So they've got 6 and I've still got 1. So the wolves wouldn't win there even stll

Then I'd get lynched for lying and the wolves would have just 6 districts and none on the republican side. Even if they night-killed illini at that point, no wolf would pick up his districts.


Frankly, when you guys correctly lynch PB, it all but wins the game for the village (unless there is somehow more than 4 wolves or more than 2 Repub wolves)

[Chubby]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

No read on him whatsoever. Plus I figured it harder to lynch the president given it's been mentioned and given no traction.

You don't think you'd have the votes if you scanned the Prez and he came up bad? So you scan someone who has trust vs an unknown (trustwise) President of your own party when checking your party?

Come on now

You must understand my (probably others) skepticism. If I remember correctly, PurdueBrad hasn't been online a ton this game (dem's were throwing his name out there with Mrs S because of how inactive he's been) and this all seems a little too neat and tidy.

Not saying I'm sure you are wrong but this just seems a little too convienent.

[jeheinz72]

Frankly, if I really was a wolf, the smarter play would be to just bide my time, wait until I could night-kill illinifan and get 1 (maybe 2) of his districts into my pile.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Chubby

You don't think you'd have the votes if you scanned the Prez and he came up bad? So you scan someone who has trust vs an unknown (trustwise) President of your own party when checking your party?

Come on now

You must understand my (probably others) skepticism. If I remember correctly, PurdueBrad hasn't been online a ton this game (dem's were throwing his name out there with Mrs S because of how inactive he's been) and this all seems a little too neat and tidy.

Not saying I'm sure you are wrong but this just seems a little too convienent.

But like I said, I had no read on him. If I had reason to believe he was a wolf, I'd have scanned him. But I was down to lowest-common-denomiators here. Frankly, I thought my reveal was basically going to be a big long list of cleared people and then we'd all argue if the cunning came into play.

I get your sketpicism. If you want to make the wrong call, fine, but fake revealing here is a no-win for me as a wolf, so you can reconcile that

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

A couple of you mentioned this as some sort of "end-game" play if I'm a wolf. Well lets look at a few things

Assumptions:

- If lying, I'm the 2nd Repub wolf
- If lying, PB is good
- 2 Dem wolves

So I "get" PB lynched. Let's say then that Tyrith gets 4th district and illini the 5th. That'd be no net gain for the wolves, district-wise.

Let's say then that we night-kill a Dem, for this case let's have Collins and his 3 dist's be my partner and Chubby be the 4th wolf. So we night-kill Chesapeaker and Collins picks a dist up. So they've got 6 and I've still got 1. So the wolves wouldn't win there even stll

Then I'd get lynched for lying and the wolves would have just 6 districts and none on the republican side. Even if they night-killed illini at that point, no wolf would pick up his districts.


Frankly, when you guys correctly lynch PB, it all but wins the game for the village (unless there is somehow more than 4 wolves or more than 2 Repub wolves)

Why Chubby?

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

I'll even give you my version of Republican trust

I trust Tyrith the most and Pass the next most in our party. The other 3 are all about even in my mind....

Quote from Friday from me, post-scanning.

[Chubby]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

A couple of you mentioned this as some sort of "end-game" play if I'm a wolf. Well lets look at a few things

Assumptions:

- If lying, I'm the 2nd Repub wolf
- If lying, PB is good
- 2 Dem wolves

So I "get" PB lynched. Let's say then that Tyrith gets 4th district and illini the 5th. That'd be no net gain for the wolves, district-wise.

Let's say then that we night-kill a Dem, for this case let's have Collins and his 3 dist's be my partner and Chubby be the 4th wolf. So we night-kill Chesapeaker and Collins picks a dist up. So they've got 6 and I've still got 1. So the wolves wouldn't win there even stll

Then I'd get lynched for lying and the wolves would have just 6 districts and none on the republican side. Even if they night-killed illini at that point, no wolf would pick up his districts.


Frankly, when you guys correctly lynch PB, it all but wins the game for the village (unless there is somehow more than 4 wolves or more than 2 Repub wolves)

If we're throwing out scenarios how about this one... (since your's is farfetched, I've bent over backwards for the the village and the fact that you are trying to paint the most cleared Dem behind KWhit as bad is speakng volumes)



Let's assume mccollins is a wolf. He's got 3 districts.
Let's assume the reason you convienetly don't scan illinifan is because he's a wolf. He's got 3 districts too.
You have 1 district.

Lynch PB and illini goes up to 4 districts. Nightkill the right person and you are at your 9 districts.

I don't think it's unreasonable to think there's 3-1 wolf in the parties if CR chose them at random. Yes, 2-2 is the logical assumption but if they are random then it's certainlly possible.

IF that was the case (3-1 repub wolves to dem wolves) that would explain why us Dems got fucked over on night one, why we seem to be hurting in party stuff and why you guys have made more than one questionable bill...

[Passacaglia]

There's two assumptions you've made that I have problems with:

1. That we have 2 dem and 2 rep wolves. That's great for token guesses, but with the game on the line, I don't want to assume that.
2. That you would night-kill a dem. Again, game on the line here -- if it's the last kill anyway, no reason a republican can't be night-killed.

[Chubby]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Why Chubby?

Because i'm the most vocal to question him, heaven forbid someone not go along with his perfect little story.

I'm not buying it right now. I'm still holding off on my wolf vote as I have plenty of time today. The benefit of a day off from work

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

I'm not afraid to change, but I'm going to need an actual like "case" made. Of the 5 people voting for you, I only trust two of them, me and RendeR. PB I trust a little but that could be party-blinders. Illini, though pres, I have like zero opinion about.

Trust hint for RendeR

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Why Chubby?

Just using him as an example in a "best-case" for the wolves (that the 2 dem wolves would be the ones with the most dist's over there). I have zero idea if that's fact. Just running an end-game scenario since people think that's the play I"m making here, which I'm not.

[Chubby]

Again

Why scan someone with no power and you have some trust in VS the Prez who you have zero opinion about?


This is just not jiving with me. If I was the seer I would scan the people in power 1st to make sure we aren't hosed. I think that would have been the right "play". Whether I was right or wrong on the people I had a feel for, I would at least have a feel for more people.

Of course, if this is a setup then I already know the answer.


/sigh...

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Chubby

Because i'm the most vocal to question him, heaven forbid someone not go along with his perfect little story.

I'm not buying it right now. I'm still holding off on my wolf vote as I have plenty of time today. The benefit of a day off from work

No no, I only used you as an example that if it's 2-2 then the best case for the wolves would be if you and collins were the wolves.

As far as 3-1, I dunno, on Day Two or Three I even suggested a variant possibility from it being 2-2 or 4 wolves overall and well, people wanted to lynch me for it. So there you have that.

[Chubby]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

No no, I only used you as an example that if it's 2-2 then the best case for the wolves would be if you and collins were the wolves.

As far as 3-1, I dunno, on Day Two or Three I even suggested a variant possibility from it being 2-2 or 4 wolves overall and well, people wanted to lynch me for it. So there you have that.

Except if I was a wolf I wouldn't be vetoing bills with riders that also hurt me and my party's popularity. I also wouldn't be casting the deciding vote for a wolf right before the 10 min deadline.

So you can excuse my disbelief for you right now

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Chubby

Again

Why scan someone with no power and you have some trust in VS the Prez who you have zero opinion about?


This is just not jiving with me. If I was the seer I would scan the people in power 1st to make sure we aren't hosed. I think that would have been the right "play". Whether I was right or wrong on the people I had a feel for, I would at least have a feel for more people.

Of course, if this is a setup then I already know the answer.


/sigh...

Then don't vote with me. Fine. Be wrong (or be a wolf). I told you my reasoning, reasoning which is logical to me. If it's not to you then I don't know what to tell you.

What you would do as Seer is frankly, irrelevant, since well, you're not the Seer.

I didn't see being President (or Speaker for that matter, as my votes have proven) to be a big deal. After all, illini is out as Pres now anyway, he's a lynch candidate again (after today?).

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Chubby

Except if I was a wolf I wouldn't be vetoing bills with riders that also hurt me and my party's popularity. I also wouldn't be casting the deciding vote for a wolf right before the 10 min deadline.

So you can excuse my disbelief for you right now

Yeha, like I said it's fine. You'll either be a wolf or have egg on your face. It's your call man. I'm not going to go back-and-forth with you any more on it.

[Chubby]

can any other repubs speak for how much PurdueBrad has been posting? Is it a pattern that he isn't online much, if so when is he online/offline?

[jeheinz72]

For the record, I posted about 3-4 hints in the Repub thread that I had dropped in there. I'm not sure on if cross-quoting threads is allowed or whatever, so I'll just let another Repub verify for you guys that they are indeed there.

[Passacaglia]

Chubby, I'm fine with his scenario with you as a wolf, if it were 2-2, simply because you control 2 districts. This isn't about finding wolves here -- it's about making sure the wolves can't win if heinz is lying and we believe him.

[Chubby]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Then don't vote with me. Fine. Be wrong (or be a wolf). I told you my reasoning, reasoning which is logical to me. If it's not to you then I don't know what to tell you.

What you would do as Seer is frankly, irrelevant, since well, you're not the Seer.

I didn't see being President (or Speaker for that matter, as my votes have proven) to be a big deal. After all, illini is out as Pres now anyway, he's a lynch candidate again (after today?).

but if illini is wolf then we COULD have voted him out with a wolf vote with 75% of the vote. A seer coming out without so many problems would have been able to get a prez removed.

So claiming illini wasn't a lynch candidate as prez is simply false. There's merely better choices for lynch without conclusive evidence...

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

For the record, I posted about 3-4 hints in the Repub thread that I had dropped in there. I'm not sure on if cross-quoting threads is allowed or whatever, so I'll just let another Repub verify for you guys that they are indeed there.

I've already said I remember you saying your trust Tyrith, but if you really want me to verify it, some post numbers would help.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Chubby

can any other repubs speak for how much PurdueBrad has been posting? Is it a pattern that he isn't online much, if so when is he online/offline?

I'm sure you don't mean me, but since this is a fact

PB is the 4th highest poster in our thread. Though it warrants mentioning that Pass, Tyrith and myself account for 2/3rds of all posts in there. He's at like 60 with 3rd at like 120.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Chubby

can any other repubs speak for how much PurdueBrad has been posting? Is it a pattern that he isn't online much, if so when is he online/offline?

I feel like he's usually around in the mornings. I'll check.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I've already said I remember you saying your trust Tyrith, but if you really want me to verify it, some post numbers would help.

I just quoted them in our thread to show them. So they should be there. Let me know if you want the numbers

[Chubby]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Chubby, I'm fine with his scenario with you as a wolf, if it were 2-2, simply because you control 2 districts. This isn't about finding wolves here -- it's about making sure the wolves can't win if heinz is lying and we believe him.

and that's what it boils down to.

If heinz is lying I think it's game over tonight. There's no way he makes this play as a wolf without having the end in sight because if he's lying and is alive tomorrow then he'd clearly be the target for lynch.

I just think it's too convienent that illini now has 3 districts and heinz refused to scan him while pres. on top of mccollin's 3 districts whom we've been looking at closely...

[Chubby]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I feel like he's usually around in the mornings. I'll check.

thanks. I don't think he's posted a ton in this thread so i want a feel of how much he's posting in the repub thread.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Chubby

but if illini is wolf then we COULD have voted him out with a wolf vote with 75% of the vote. A seer coming out without so many problems would have been able to get a prez removed.

So claiming illini wasn't a lynch candidate as prez is simply false. There's merely better choices for lynch without conclusive evidence...

All i know is it was brought up 2-3 times (could very well have been just in the Repub thread) about lynching the Prez (even as a villager strategy) and it got like no play at all. Given that, *I* didn't feel that getting him lynched, even if I scanned him as wolf (keeping in mind I had no read on him) was going to be easy. So I waited on it.

Here are my scan options, given my strategy of only Repubs the last 2 nights

Night 4: Pass, PB, RendeR, illini

Like I said, I trusted Pass (due to early play). No read on illini. So, to me, it was PB or RendeR. I trusted PB a little more and felt he had more general trust, so I scanned RendeR

Night 5: Pass, PB, illini

I trusted Pass still, so illini or PB. I felt it'd be hard to lynch illini, even if I was right. So I scanned PB, thinking maybe I/we were just wrong on him. Honestly, I thought he'd come up clean.

Honestly, I thought my big reveal was going to end up being something along the lines of "OK folks, I'm the Seer, I've friggin scanned as clean all of these Repubs, so X must be the 2nd Repub wolf or the 2nd repub wolf is the cunning wolf."

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Chubby

I just think it's too convienent that illini now has 3 districts and heinz refused to scan him while pres. on top of mccollin's 3 districts whom we've been looking at closely...

Whoa whoa whoa. I didn't *refuse* to scan him. I felt I had better options. Illini would've likely been next.

[illinifan999]

I actually would've been a perfect lynch candidate since it sounded like you all could vote for me as a wolf (not as an impeachment). When I cleared, the vote would've been ignored, I would've been cleared, and we wouldn't have lost a villager.

[Chubby]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Whoa whoa whoa. I didn't *refuse* to scan him. I felt I had better options. Illini would've likely been next.

The 1st Prez of the game, who has no voting or posting history to go on, and you don't scan him?

That's what it boils down to me. It's a no brainer to scan him. If you are focusing on your own party, then you should have scanned him 1st ESPECIALLY if you have no read on him.

I just don't get this. Scanning him on night 6 doesn't really accomplish that much if he's wolf, he's already had 4 years to mess with vetos and let pass what is best for the wolves...

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by illinifan999

I actually would've been a perfect lynch candidate since it sounded like you all could vote for me as a wolf (not as an impeachment). When I cleared, the vote would've been ignored, I would've been cleared, and we wouldn't have lost a villager.

The problem is that that only worked if EVERYONE was on board. If two other people voted for someone else, then that person would have been lynched.

[illinifan999]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

The problem is that that only worked if EVERYONE was on board. If two other people voted for someone else, then that person would have been lynched.

I see. I knew it was too easy to be true.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Chubby

and that's what it boils down to.

If heinz is lying I think it's game over tonight. There's no way he makes this play as a wolf without having the end in sight because if he's lying and is alive tomorrow then he'd clearly be the target for lynch.

I just think it's too convienent that illini now has 3 districts and heinz refused to scan him while pres. on top of mccollin's 3 districts whom we've been looking at closely...

But if he's lying, who's the real seer?

Also, I think we can still make sure the wolves don't win if he's lying. Does anyone else have powers to ensure someone doesn't get elected?

[Passacaglia]

Also, what if we vote mccollins today? That might be the 'safe' play in that if heinz is lying, that means mccollins has to be a wolf (otherwise I don't think there would be any way for the wolves to win -- I'll check that, though). Then we make heinz President, and if he's lying, we lynch him.

[Tyrith]

If heinz is bad the real seer will step forward -- we would have known if he had died, and he hasn't. So we will know by the end of the day. However, heinz's explanation of events reconciles _perfectly_ with how I've seen he act this game, so I'm highly inclined to trust him -- if this is a wolf play it's a play they've been planning for several days, and then we deserve to win.

And honestly, I don't think it's that big of a deal that he didn't scan the president...the president is essentially a slave to us anyway; if he deviates we get super ticked. And illini hasn't done anything controversial anyway.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Also, what if we vote mccollins today? That might be the 'safe' play in that if heinz is lying, that means mccollins has to be a wolf (otherwise I don't think there would be any way for the wolves to win -- I'll check that, though). Then we make heinz President, and if he's lying, we lynch him.

I could go along with this plan, assuming that you're right about the wolves winning, although I'm 95% certain that heinz is on our side.

[Chubby]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

The problem is that that only worked if EVERYONE was on board. If two other people voted for someone else, then that person would have been lynched.

"A 2/3 vote of Congress can impeach the President, and a 3/4 vote remove him from office, and he will be OUT OF THE GAME if this happens (politically ruined)."

"The President can be voted for as a Wolf while seated, but it only works if he actually is a Wolf, and receives a 2/3 vote. Any removal will be treated like an impeachment and subsequent removal from office, with similar effect. If he is voted as a Wolf and is not a Wolf, he will not be removed from office, regardless of the vote results, and votes for him will be ignored."

Not true...

[Chubby]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

If heinz is bad the real seer will step forward -- we would have known if he had died, and he hasn't. So we will know by the end of the day. However, heinz's explanation of events reconciles _perfectly_ with how I've seen he act this game, so I'm highly inclined to trust him -- if this is a wolf play it's a play they've been planning for several days, and then we deserve to win.

And honestly, I don't think it's that big of a deal that he didn't scan the president...the president is essentially a slave to us anyway; if he deviates we get super ticked. And illini hasn't done anything controversial anyway.

[mccollins]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

if this is a wolf play it's a play they've been planning for several days, and then we deserve to win.

A simple mis-statement I presume.

[illinifan999]

Originally Posted by Chubby

"A 2/3 vote of Congress can impeach the President, and a 3/4 vote remove him from office, and he will be OUT OF THE GAME if this happens (politically ruined)."

"The President can be voted for as a Wolf while seated, but it only works if he actually is a Wolf, and receives a 2/3 vote. Any removal will be treated like an impeachment and subsequent removal from office, with similar effect. If he is voted as a Wolf and is not a Wolf, he will not be removed from office, regardless of the vote results, and votes for him will be ignored."

Not true...

It sounds like if the votes are then ignored, then if someone else has 1 vote against them they are getting lynched.

[Chubby]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Also, what if we vote mccollins today? That might be the 'safe' play in that if heinz is lying, that means mccollins has to be a wolf (otherwise I don't think there would be any way for the wolves to win -- I'll check that, though). Then we make heinz President, and if he's lying, we lynch him.

You do remember we don't vote for Prez right?

[Chubby]

Originally Posted by illinifan999

It sounds like if the votes are then ignored, then if someone else has 1 vote against them they are getting lynched.

which would have netted us one cleared and one lynched (either wolf or no). Worse case scenario we have yesterday where we lynched a good guy but we would have cleared the Prez at the same time...