08-15-2011, 12:53 PM | #1801 | |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Jan 2006
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Quote:
I don't think we'll get bogus voting records for two days. Or one even. If we lynch Telle and she comes up villager then we would all reassess. Chubby would presumably come after me as the next in the chain, I guess Hoops would carry on after you (playing the Good Wolf again). So I don't think we should be painting a Telle lynch quite so black. I think we have good reason to believe that there are wolves in the non-DV voters. I realise that that might be a dangerous assumption but I think we'll likely find two wolves in that group & Zinto. |
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08-15-2011, 12:58 PM | #1802 |
College Starter
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Votes as of post #1800:
3 - Telle - Lathum (1706), Chubby (1717), Narcizo (1769) 3 - Zinto - Autumn (1718), mauboy (1768), EagleFan (1783) 2 - Autumn - Barkeep (1761), Racer (1800) |
08-15-2011, 01:00 PM | #1803 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Feb 2003
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Great work, Racer, thanks for putting that together. It's the sort of thing I'd love to do but haven't had the time. Frankly Heinz had fallen off my radar altogether. In my defense to what you've posted about me, I gave my reasoning for switching to Lathum. I still have the note here on my desk - I was watching Lathum and Darth to see who would make the wise self-defense vote, wondering if we maybe had two wolves up (since I believed Barkeep was likely a wolf). Darth switched to Lathum, but Lathum didn't switch to Barkeep, I thought probably signalling that they were both wolves. It was, I felt, a very reasoned approach to the vote given that Barkeep was my main suspect that day.
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08-15-2011, 01:04 PM | #1804 |
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FWIW, I'm here. Don't really have much to add as I kind of feel out-paced here. I'm here to answer any questions anyone has of me though
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08-15-2011, 01:05 PM | #1805 |
Pro Rookie
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Right now I'm leaning Autumn or Zinto with my vote, I just don't think Telle would admit to passing a hammer she knew was fake. I can see her logic behind letting it go random, since it was Day/Night one. I don't know if I'd do the same, but I can at least see the reasoning in it.
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08-15-2011, 01:05 PM | #1806 | |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Jan 2006
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Quote:
You seem to be ignoring the fact that Zinto cast the vote that made sure that no vote trickery could save Darth. You're also conveniently forgetting your own rather inaccurate reason for voting Lathum ahead of Darth Vilus. I believe your argument was that Lathum didn't vote Barkeep even when it gave him the chance to push Barkeep ahead of himself when that's exactly what he did. And for this you abandon the voting Darth policy that you had been using for two days? You know, when it actually mattered. And now you call out Zinto for flip-flopping? |
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08-15-2011, 01:07 PM | #1807 | |
Head Coach
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Quote:
No, Lathum didn't. Not at deadline when it mattered. I was watching the vote. A vote for Barkeep at that time would have helped him out, but he did not make it, not at that time. So you are misunderstanding or misremembering. And I'm not ignoring Zinto's vote on Darth, I commented on it. It's the sort of burying vote that a wolf would do. No way a wolf ties up the vote there and ties themself to the wolf on their way down. |
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08-15-2011, 01:08 PM | #1808 | |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Jan 2006
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Quote:
Lathum votes BK in self-defence and then switches to DV when that looks like the best line of self-defence. |
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08-15-2011, 01:09 PM | #1809 |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Fresno, CA
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I like Zinto's voting history a whole heckuva lot more than Autumn's
Vote Autumn |
08-15-2011, 01:09 PM | #1810 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
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Frankly, Narc, your posts to me seem to speak as if I'm suggesting I know all the answers. I have no idea who the wolves are. My votes and theories are based on looking at the evidence, with as much time as I can manage, and making guesses. I'm not suggesting everyone has to follow me and agree with me. Am I giving the impression that I'm telling you what to think?
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08-15-2011, 01:10 PM | #1811 |
Head Coach
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08-15-2011, 01:14 PM | #1812 |
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There was a point, according to my scribbled notes, that it was 6-5-5 I believe it says, Darth-lathum-barkeep. At that point I expected Lathum would switch to barkeep to make it a Darth/Barkeep showdown. I expected Darth would switch to Lathum, to tie it up. Only one of those happened. That was my reasoning for picking Lathum over Darth.
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08-15-2011, 01:17 PM | #1813 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Feb 2003
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I'm not good enough of a villager to wriggle my way out of votes, as I've demonstrated well lately. This time (unlike last time I think!) there's some good reasons to vote me, so it's even harder to argue. I will continue to answer any questions people have, but I'm not going to try to argue my way out.
I will try, if I have time, to think more about where I think the wolves really are. I won't bother thinking out loud there, as it will just make everyone suspicious but I'll try to put together my suspicions before deadline. |
08-15-2011, 01:17 PM | #1814 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA
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Quote:
A wolf would claim to do that so you didn't know they passed it to a wolf. That part makes sense. What doesn't make sense is why a wolf would come out with the information in the first place. It's like I was just told "this statement is a lie"... My head is spinning... |
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08-15-2011, 01:25 PM | #1815 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA
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unvote Zinto
vote Autumn |
08-15-2011, 01:26 PM | #1816 |
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Reading Racer's write up and a couple things jumped out at me. The 'went from one wolf to the other' part. Danny wasn't a slam dunk vote at that point but it seems rather convenient that he voted one wolf and then switched to another (one which was pretty much like a brutal as it took a villaer with him).
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08-15-2011, 01:26 PM | #1817 |
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Back to work, will check back in later.
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08-15-2011, 01:40 PM | #1818 |
College Starter
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Buffalo, NY
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I REALLY don't think that Autumn is a wolf. Whether you think I am one or not, why would he stick his neck out to save me? It just doesn't make any sense at all if he's a wolf.
I will not be voting Autumn. |
08-15-2011, 01:41 PM | #1819 | |
Pro Rookie
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Quote:
Hey Telle - can you give me the play-by-play of when this went down? |
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08-15-2011, 01:50 PM | #1820 | |||||
College Starter
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Buffalo, NY
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Quote:
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At the point in which Autumn unvoted me, he was still very much in the running. And then he outright says that he'd rather he get lynched than me. I just don't see a wolf doing this.. not even for another wolf. |
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08-15-2011, 02:11 PM | #1821 |
Head Coach
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Vote Autumn
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08-15-2011, 02:23 PM | #1822 | |
College Starter
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Buffalo, NY
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Quote:
The problem though is that the vote is currently going towards Autumn. You lynch him and he comes up villager.. then what? It does nothing to clear me, or tell you much about anyone else. So then the next day you'll all lynch me. And there you go.. two days, probably four villagers dead including night kills, and nothing to show for it. Now if you did actually lynch me first, and then see me come up villager, then I think that would clear Autumn because of how he risked himself for me yesterday. No way a wolf does that for a villager.. too risky just to "gain trust". Of course, I'd prefer to not be lynched at all. So, what other candidates can we discuss lynching? |
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08-15-2011, 02:24 PM | #1823 |
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How much time was left before deadline when Autumn made that move telle? (if you know the post# I can just go look too - and thanks for getting that info)
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08-15-2011, 02:27 PM | #1824 |
College Starter
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Location: Buffalo, NY
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08-15-2011, 02:28 PM | #1825 |
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08-15-2011, 02:30 PM | #1826 |
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Hrm, yeah, that doesn't seem to be a wolf move, even for wolf. So, that leaves who exactly?
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08-15-2011, 02:32 PM | #1827 |
Pro Rookie
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Location: Fresno, CA
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Unvote Autumn
Vote Mauboy |
08-15-2011, 02:33 PM | #1828 |
Pro Rookie
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Looking at his votes, I think it's worth a shot. I think he's done a lot of "I'm here and ready to analyze!" Then isn't there until it doesn't matter anymore
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08-15-2011, 02:34 PM | #1829 |
College Starter
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Buffalo, NY
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Well Zinto and I currently have votes. I'd of course prefer you not voting me I don't have much feeling one way or the other for Zinto.
Personally, I want to vote Narcizo. He keeps saying again and again that I passed him the hammer (which turned out to be a fake).. when in reality none of us, not even me, knows if the hammer he received came from me. So he's either a wolf trying to make me look worse than I already do, or he's just so absolutely convinced that I'm a wolf that he's blinding himself. |
08-15-2011, 02:36 PM | #1830 |
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I don't know if I buy Narc as a vote really, could be that I just have Narc-colored glasses on or something ,but I'm reading and agreeing with a lot of what he has pointed out
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08-15-2011, 02:39 PM | #1831 |
College Starter
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Buffalo, NY
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Well I admit, my feelings on Narcizo are definitely colored by the fact that he's so intent on lynching me... as it is I have to keep reminding myself that we're rather certain on Chubby being good, since he keeps coming after me so vehemently too
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08-15-2011, 02:42 PM | #1832 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Murfreesboro, TN
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Heinz is a jerk! The one game I did some small time analysis was this game. LOL. I'm far and away not an analysis type of player so don't expect me to do much there. Not sure where I said I would do some analyzing and didn't follow through. I did a little last week.
I almost didn't even respond to this but since you're a cool Guy I didn't want to ignore you. |
08-15-2011, 02:44 PM | #1833 |
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Location: Syracuse, NY
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home from work
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08-15-2011, 02:53 PM | #1834 |
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Location: Syracuse, NY
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vote count?
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08-15-2011, 02:56 PM | #1835 |
College Starter
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Buffalo, NY
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Votes as of post #1834:
3 - Telle - Lathum (1706), Chubby (1717), Narcizo (1769) 2 - Zinto - Autumn (1718), mauboy (1768) 4 - Autumn - Barkeep (1761), Racer (1800), EagleFan (1815), MrBug (1821) 1 - mauboy - jeheinz (1827) |
08-15-2011, 02:58 PM | #1836 | ||
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Fort Wayne, Indiana
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Quote:
Quote:
Taken from Narcizo's vote history write-up on page 34. He unvoted on Danny when he revealed as Thor and put his vote on DV. It was the first vote DV received day two and it looks like it was the first vote he received in the game. |
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08-15-2011, 02:59 PM | #1837 | |
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Quote:
It's not really that you did or didn't (heck, I haven't done any). It's that you seemed to post/imply that you were going to, then didn't. I've at least tried to keep all expectations at a minimum with regard to what I have to offer the village (aka nada) |
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08-15-2011, 03:01 PM | #1838 |
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Location: Syracuse, NY
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can anyone explain why zinto still has any votes compared to the other 3?
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08-15-2011, 03:05 PM | #1839 |
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Location: Syracuse, NY
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WWTD? (What would Thomkal do?)
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08-15-2011, 03:08 PM | #1840 | |
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Quote:
Relooked at how the vote history went. Telle might be making a good point here. What are other people's thoughts on this? When Autumn unvoted Telle, it made the vote: 6 votes Autumn 5 votes Telle 4 votes Thomkal. Lathum voted for Telle before Autumn revoted. After Autumn voted Thomkal, the vote became 6 votes Autumn 6 votes Telle 5 votes Thomkal Would a wolf risk doing this? |
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08-15-2011, 03:09 PM | #1841 | |
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Quote:
It's easy for a wolf to save a villager. They know that if/when that villager ultimately dies they'll be vindicated. This is a standard play out of my wolf playbook. REALLY not thinking someone is a wolf is a pretty strong endorsement. Are you just basing it off this single action or a more complete picture of Autumn this game? |
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08-15-2011, 03:10 PM | #1842 |
Coordinator
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It's easier for a wolf to make a dangerous unvote because he has information about how the other wolves will vote. This coordination shouldn't be underestimated.
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08-15-2011, 03:10 PM | #1843 | |
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Quote:
I think they are desperate, so yes |
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08-15-2011, 03:14 PM | #1844 | |
College Starter
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Quote:
But he was actually making himself the lead vote getter at that point. There's no way that he could know that things would swing around to Thomkal by the end and save both of us. |
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08-15-2011, 03:15 PM | #1845 |
General Manager
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On for a minute, and will chime in here on the "wolf saving villager" scenario - kind of depends on the wolf. But probably not something a first/second time wolf would do ... would likely be something an experienced wolf might do when he is willing to take the heat for his teammates by bringing the focus on himself.
I don't think it is as good a percentage play in a game where we have no seer (assumption, I guess). In a game where there is a seer I think it is a good play for either a cunning wolf or a wolf who thinks they are going out soon and is willing to spread doubt about other players before they are nabbed. |
08-15-2011, 03:16 PM | #1846 |
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But if he knows he's around and he knows other wolves are coming it's suddenly far less risky. There were 35 minutes left til deadline. Plenty of time to move back a vote in self-defense if needed.
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08-15-2011, 03:16 PM | #1847 |
College Benchwarmer
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I'm just curious, what would be the purpose? This obviously has given Telle trust, but what purpose would it serve for Autumn to risk himself like this if he was a wolf? It's a pretty high risk play. It requires Telle to die and for people to recognize that he helped prevent her from getting lynched. I'm not really sure what to think now. Autumn's vote history looks pretty bad aside from this. Thomkal's looked bad too though. |
08-15-2011, 03:17 PM | #1848 | |
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Quote:
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08-15-2011, 03:22 PM | #1849 | |
College Starter
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Quote:
He actually said that he would rather he be lynched than me. If he were to go back on that and vote me in self-defense, he'd know he'd be gone the next day. I just see this play as WAY too risky. The other thing that got me thinking positively about him was that on Day 3 when he voted for Lathum at the end after going back and forth between you and Darth Vilus all day, I directly asked him why. He came back very fast with a good answer. Now that wasn't anywhere near enough to clear him in my book, but it felt much more villagery that wolfy to me.. if he was trying to save DV, then he would have had to concoct a story about his vote. And it just didn't feel like there was enough time there for him to have come up with such a clear and concise answer. |
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08-15-2011, 03:23 PM | #1850 | |
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Quote:
I think Autumn has spent a little too much time defending telle, I also think he'd be willing to fall on the sword for his "boss" |
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