The Obama Presidency - 2008 & 2012

[RainMaker]

The polls all seem confusing to me. I've sort of just stuck to Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com for my polling updates. Nate Silver seems to be pretty accurate with his projections. He even called the Akin drop perfectly.

[JPhillips]

I just look at the RCP aggregate of polling.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...bama-1171.html

No single poll matters a lot anyway, so looking at an average of all the reputable polls gives a clearer picture of where things stand at any given moment.

[PilotMan]

I'm not sure whether to post this here or the facebook thread:



The internets are seriously righteous.

[Warhammer]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Then we get to the "do something" possibilities: how many items do you really have in the toolbox to improve things? Throw money at it is the simplest answer. Poorly spent money still probably shows some modest improvement tho- it's just not nearly as efficient as it could be. Even better, of course, is well spent money but we have yet to find and there likely is no silver bullet. However, trying nothing guarantees no solution whereas at least we can try something.

SI

I am of the mind that if you know you are putting out good money after bad, it is a bad investment and you have to look at new methods.

Its not about opportunities at this point. You're never going to give people of different socio-economic backgrounds identical opportunities. Going to school is an opportunity. Going to work is an opportunity. The key is exploiting your opportunities many people do not do this. We need to teach people what opportunities are and how to exploit them.

[Edward64]

Good summary next time when talking politics with your friends and this comes up.

'You didn't build that:' A theme out of context - CNN.com

The clips that ran between speakers at the GOP convention took things further, heavily editing Obama's remarks to set up television-ready vignettes with business owners who took umbrage at the comment.

"Look, if you've been successful, you didn't get there on your own. You didn't get there on your own. I'm always struck by people who think, well, it must be because I was just so smart. There are a lot of smart people out there. It must be because I worked harder than everybody else ... If you've got a business -- you didn't build that. Somebody else made that happen," was what delegates heard over the PA system.

Obama's remark came at a July 13 speech at a firehouse in Roanoke, Virginia, where he attacked Republican opposition to his economic plans and defended the role of government in promoting economic growth. It is true that he used the phrase, "you didn't build that."
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Here is the full text:

"Look, if you've been successful, you didn't get there on your own," he said. "You didn't get there on your own. I'm always struck by people who think, well, it must be because I was just so smart. There are a lot of smart people out there. It must be because I worked harder than everybody else. Let me tell you something -- there are a whole bunch of hardworking people out there.

"If you were successful, somebody along the line gave you some help. There was a great teacher somewhere in your life. Somebody helped to create this unbelievable American system that we have that allowed you to thrive. Somebody invested in roads and bridges.

"If you've got a business -- you didn't build that," he continued. "Somebody else made that happen. The Internet didn't get invented on its own. Government research created the Internet so that all the companies could make money off the internet. The point is, is that when we succeed, we succeed because of our individual initiative, but also because we do things together. There are some things, just like fighting fires, we don't do on our own."

So there it is. Everything before and after "You didn't build that" refers to infrastructure, education and public services.

[tarcone]

Yeah. But it is still a poor speech. And saying "If you've got a business- you didn't build that, somebody else made it happen." That sounds bad in any context.
A small business owner could say that roads wouldnt be built if not for small businesses. Or schools wouldnt be built if not for small businesses. It could go round and round.
It was a poor speech and he is getting burned by it.

[molson]

It's just really divisive. The people he's lecturing and looking down on there obviously are just going to dig in their heels further, especially the way the speech was inevitably going to be taken out of context. And it had to be a turn off to even some middle-of-the road people who don't follow politics super-close but get the sound bites. I guess it was more of a ra-ra speech to people already on his side to spur donations, but it just has the same effect on the other side. I wonder if it was really worth it at the end of day.

It's just a window of what sucks about election year, and the two-party system the way its setup now. One side talks about how success is based on individual achievements, so the other side naturally has to focus on the communal/government part of success. Nobody can talk like a normal person about the relationship between those two things and how to optimize it to the benefit of everyone.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

As the above posters mentioned, it doesn't matter whether it's taken in full or only in part. It's a very poor speech at best and a further wedge between factions at worst. Somebody should have been smart enough along the line to say, 'Maybe it's best we didn't go down this road to make our point."

[BrianD]

But isn't this the main ideological difference between Obama and Romney? Obama is saying that the rich have gotten a lot from infrastructure and government to help them become rich, and now they should be paying it back so others can do the same? If it is one of your main positions, do you care if it adds to the wedge?

[Marc Vaughan]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

As the above posters mentioned, it doesn't matter whether it's taken in full or only in part. It's a very poor speech at best and a further wedge between factions at worst. Somebody should have been smart enough along the line to say, 'Maybe it's best we didn't go down this road to make our point."

The speech was about people being part of a society and realising that things are all interlinked and we need to take responsibility for each other and realise we stand and fall together - I think it was a very good speech.

That it can be picked apart and taken out of context is just something which would happen regardless - heck I know a lot of Americans who are still going on about Obama being a Muslim who probably isn't born in America .... lets face it for some people/commentators they'd find something to moan about regardless of what was said.

Heck if Obama announced that everyone was to recieve $10,000 dollars tomorrow as part of a secret saving scheme which he'd put into operation I guarentee the GOP would complain it was a socialist plot because everyone was getting the same amount

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by molson

Nobody can talk like a normal person about the relationship between those two things and how to optimize it to the benefit of everyone.

You mean like this:

The point is, is that when we succeed, we succeed because of our individual initiative, but also because we do things together.

[mckerney]

Ale to the Chief: White House Beer Recipe | The White House

Next up on Fox News, Obama uses White House for drug production.

[Edward64]

Interesting article on Valerie Jarrett. I've not heard of her in the news but she seems to be a major player influencing Obama from healthcare, contraception issues, supreme court nominee, immigration etc. Article did not say anything about foreign policy.

Valerie Jarrett Is the Other Power in the West Wing - NYTimes.com

A Chicagoan who helped Mr. Obama navigate his rise through that city’s aggressive politics, Ms. Jarrett came to Washington with no national experience. But her unmatched access to the Obamas has made her a driving force in some of the most significant domestic policy decisions of the president’s first term, her persuasive power only amplified by Mr. Obama’s insular management style.

From the first, her official job has been somewhat vague. But nearly four years on, with Mr. Obama poised to accept his party’s renomination this week, her standing is clear, to her many admirers and detractors alike. “She is the single most influential person in the Obama White House,” said one former senior White House official, who like many would speak candidly only on condition of anonymity.

“She’s there to try to promote what she understands to be what the president wants,” the former aide said. “Ultimately the president makes his own decisions. The question that is hard to get inside of, the black box, is whether she is really influencing him or merely executing decisions he’s made. That’s like asking, ‘Is the light on in the refrigerator when the door is closed?’ ”

[Edward64]

A fact check of the 23 million unemployed comment by Clint Eastwood.

http://money.cnn.com/2012/08/31/news...-unemployment/

"I haven't cried that hard since I found out that there are 23 million unemployed people in this country," Eastwood said. "This administration hasn't done enough to cure that." (Related: Jobs data boost Obama's chances)

But the U.S. Labor Department, which puts out the official government jobs data, counts 12.8 million people as unemployed -- not 23 million.

Even if you add in unemployed people who are not counted in that total because they are not actively looking for work -- a category the Labor Department terms "marginally attached" -- that number rises to just over 15.3 million.

To get to the number Eastwood cited, you need to also count part-time workers who wish they were working full-time. That adds just over 8.2 million. Total: about 23.6 million.
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Despite the back and forth over Eastwood's remarks, government data show that the 23 million number is largely unchanged from when Obama took office.

When Obama was sworn in, about 22.2 million people were unemployed, jobless and not looking for work or working part-time while looking for full-time jobs. That number jumped to 23.7 million by February 2009.

[Galaxy]

Originally Posted by Edward64

More polling, be interesting to see the bump Romney will/not get at the convention.

CNN Poll: Obama 49%-Romney 47% among likely voters – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs

You believe anything that comes from CNN?

[Galaxy]

Originally Posted by CraigSca

Personally, I just think we're running out of middle class jobs. In the past we had the factory worker, but I really don't see that happening anymore because of the global economy. We just can't compete with other county's manufacturing (unless this is self-healing, when the Indias and the Chinas of the world catch up on the wage scale and make paying the American worker more competitive) So, you either engineer or finance/business major your way to a good salary, otherwise you're left out and work in the service economy.

Unless...the point I made earlier about India/China and other manufacturing economies catching up to us on the wage scale and then the middle class is self-healing, but who knows how long that will take. And really, what can Congress and/or the executive branch do to either change and/or accelerate this? Maybe it's just an era we have to accept.

I think manufacturing is also different due to automation and the evolution of a higher level of skills needed in the manufacturing industry. Out-sourcing of low-skill manufacturing is what started things, but I think technology is the bigger inevitable factor.

Mark Cuban has an interesting post: Which USA do you work in ? « blog maverick

[fpres]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Valerie Jarrett Is the Other Power in the West Wing - NYTimes.com

The NY Times is only about three years late to the game on Valerie Jarrett. She's been recognized as an influential person in Obama's inner circle for quite a while now.

[Edward64]

This is a key question the Dems need to be ready for and not stumble on. I don't understand why they do not have a cohesive answer at this stage of the game.

Dems attempt clean up on ‘are you better’ question – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs

A day after prominent Democrats struggled to answer whether or not Americans were better off in 2012 than they were four years ago, party leaders on Monday explained why the question didn't have an easy answer, and renewed their attempt to pin the blame for Americans' economic woes on the previous president.

Brad Woodhouse, communications director for the Democratic National Committee, said on CNN's "Early Start" that Americans were "absolutely" better off than four years ago, portraying the president as a pilot who brought a crashing airplane out of a downward trajectory.

"The truth is that the American people know, we were literally a plane, the trajectory was towards the ground. He got the stick and pulled us up out of that decline," Woodhouse said.

His answer was far more definitive than many Democrats appearing on Sunday morning shows this week, who stumbled over answering the question of how Americans feel four years after Barack Obama was elected president.

[bronconick]

They finally decided they needed to prove the old saying "I'm not a member of an organized party. I'm a Democrat."

[gstelmack]

Originally Posted by CraigSca

Personally, I just think we're running out of middle class jobs.

The middle class got its start in the merchant class, people creating their own businesses. But it can be difficult to start and run a small business these days, with all the regulations about registering, plus the increased rules and regulations and expenses related to hiring employees and retaining employees (healthcare being one of the biggies).

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by gstelmack

The middle class got its start in the merchant class, people creating their own businesses. But it can be difficult to start and run a small business these days, with all the regulations about registering, plus the increased rules and regulations and expenses related to hiring employees and retaining employees (healthcare being one of the biggies).

Which brings us back to this guy.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F1YQDjpuY_U

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by gstelmack

The middle class got its start in the merchant class, people creating their own businesses. But it can be difficult to start and run a small business these days, with all the regulations about registering, plus the increased rules and regulations and expenses related to hiring employees and retaining employees (healthcare being one of the biggies).

Healthcare isn't a large barrier to starting a business. Employers with under 50 full-time employees are exempt. Very few startups employee 50+ full-time employees.

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Healthcare isn't a large barrier to starting a business. Employers with under 50 full-time employees are exempt. Very few startups employee 50+ full-time employees.

Fair enough.

Which brings us back to this guy.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F1YQDjpuY_U

[miked]

Seems like that guy is railing for a few minutes about state and local regulations. Unless it was the federal government that wouldn't give their local ballpark an occupancy permit because their mirrors were too low.

[Edward64]

3 questions on "are you better off". Check it out.

Are you better off? - CNNMoney.com

[molson]

Originally Posted by Edward64

3 questions on "are you better off". Check it out.

Are you better off? - CNNMoney.com

I think it was kind of dumb for Republicans to focus on this as a thing. Most people are going to make more money and have more money as they go through life. Especially when comparing the deepest part of a recession to now. That's not really a great economic indicator. If we want to look at the impact of the economy on individuals, it's probably more telling to look at where they enter the economy as young adults (i.e. with way more debt than ever before, and shaky job prospects), or what kind of shape they're in when the leave the economy as retired people (I don't have a good sense of that at the moment). Even most of the young people with 6-figure debt that they'll never get out of will be better off in 5 years, unless they go to prison or something, but I don't think that means that that whole system is working.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by Dutch

Fair enough.

Which brings us back to this guy.

Rep. Kelly's Rousing Floor Speech Receives Standing Ovation and Chants of "USA!" - YouTube

That's the same jackass who was crying about how the birth control option in the health care was a 9/11 and/or pearl harbor.

[korme]

This is the first time I've stepped into this thread, but I'm getting the vibe that it's pretty serious.

[sabotai]

Originally Posted by korme

This is the first time I've stepped into this thread, but I'm getting the vibe that it's pretty serious.

As serious as rhino about to charge your ass.

[Galaxy]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Healthcare isn't a large barrier to starting a business. Employers with under 50 full-time employees are exempt. Very few startups employee 50+ full-time employees.

Seems like it would just create more job outflow to other countries.

[Galaxy]

Originally Posted by sabotai

As serious as rhino about to charge your ass.

A hippo, no less, but for your entertainment:

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Galaxy

Seems like it would just create more job outflow to other countries.

This is going to vary from industry to industry but most companies that I know of in the couple hundred range offer some form of health care. If you want to attract some decent employees, it's an expected benefit so I think the only danger spot for that is in the 50~200 employee range

SI

[Edward64]

Interesting but incomplete article. I think we know the high level problems with healthcare but article doesn't attempt to analyze if Obamacare will help or hinder. The lack of transparency resonates with me.

We spend $750 billion on unnecessary health care. Two charts explain why.

So much wasteful spending leaves a lot of space for fixes. The Institute of Medicine recommends a number of solutions and many boil down to a pretty simple idea: Health care should be better-coordinated. Doctors should follow up with patients. There should be continuity of care, meaning that patients see the same doctors who have a better sense of their medical background. Wider adoption of digital records, another IOM recommendation, can help with that.

[stevew]

Apparently the Obama administration has a war on coal? These signs are funny

[Edward64]

I'm predicting this will not turn out well for Biden. I wonder if this is an off-the-cuff statement or an Obama strategy ... I suspect the former.

Biden to press: 'Fact check me' - First Read

As the campaigns continued to trade salvos over the accuracy of claims made in both parties' convention speeches, Vice President Joe Biden said on Saturday that he's happy to be under the microscope of fact checkers.

Vice President Joe Biden talks with Lisa McIntosh of Lewisburg, Ohio, as he stops for an ice cream cone Saturday at a Dairy Queen in Nelsonville, Ohio.
"I say to the press, 'Fact check me,'" the vice president declared before launching into a lengthy critique of the Republican plan for Medicare overhaul.

[sterlingice]

I don't see any possible harm. "Fact checking" seems to be a standard thing done nowadays. It's not like politifact hasn't already done it on his speech, for instance.

SI

[Edward64]

Never really gave it a thought about below on Obama ... however, I have noticed Romney's "flatness".

Obama and the Racial Politics of American English - NYTimes.com

TWO aspects of President Obama’s acceptance speech to the Democratic National Convention on Thursday night were of linguistic interest. The first was “signifying” — the use of indirect humor as critique, and a much discussed feature of black speech. “My opponent and his running mate are ... new ... to foreign policy,” he said, adding the two pauses for great comedic effect. The second, and more familiar, was the soaring crescendo, beginning with “in the words of Scripture, ours is a future filled with hope,” in which Mr. Obama demonstrated his strongest mode of linguistic performance — the black preacher style — to end his remarks (“knowing that providence is with us and that we are surely blessed”).
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Language is playing a role in this electoral season, too, but in ways most observers have overlooked. Because language is a primary factor in shaping whether a politician is seen as “likable” or “relatable,” the stark differences in speaking styles between Mr. Obama and his Republican challenger, Mitt Romney, are probably contributing to the persistently higher marks for “personality” that Mr. Obama has gotten in numerous polls.

Mr. Romney’s manner of speaking is essentially the verbal equivalent of his public persona: flat, one-dimensional, unable to connect. It is striking that he sounds almost the same in every speech, regardless of the audience. Observers have chronicled the wooden, monotonous nature of his delivery, the lack of tonal variation, the multiple hedges, the forced laughter, the “Leave It to Beaver”-era “gosh”-ness of his speaking. A painfully awkward example: his attempt to interact with black youngsters, at a parade in Jacksonville, Fla., for Martin Luther King’s Birthday in 2008, where he dully barked: “Who let the dogs out? Woof, woof.” During the primary campaign this year, he was mocked as inauthentic for throwing in some “y’alls” while stumping in the South.
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In 2008, Mr. Obama took the linguistic flexibility of his predecessors to new heights. Take, for example, his style-shifting during a visit to Ben’s Chili Bowl, a well-known Washington eatery, days before his inauguration in 2009. In a scene captured on YouTube, Mr. Obama declined to accept the change from a black cashier with the statement “Nah, we straight.” These three short, seemingly simple, words exhibited distinct linguistic features associated with African-American ways of speaking.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

I don't see any possible harm. "Fact checking" seems to be a standard thing done nowadays. It's not like politifact hasn't already done it on his speech, for instance.

SI

Reminds me of Gary Hart, his challenge and the Monkey Business fiasco. I get its already being done but to toss out a challenge adds fuel to the fire.

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Never really gave it a thought about below on Obama ... however, I have noticed Romney's "flatness".

Obama and the Racial Politics of American English - NYTimes.com

Code Switching: Are We All Guilty? : NPR

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I'm predicting this will not turn out well for Biden. I wonder if this is an off-the-cuff statement or an Obama strategy ... I suspect the former.

Biden to press: 'Fact check me' - First Read

Guaranteed they'll bust him for saying his Trans-Am can hit 180.

[Edward64]

Can't really provide good context with the below quote. Read the article, its pretty interesting an offers insight to Obama. Will buy the book.

A president sidelined - The Washington Post

After more pressure from Obama, Reid split from the other congressional leaders. Later that night, he released a $2.7 trillion deficit reduction plan with a single-step debt limit increase that would last through 2012.

Five days later, on Friday, July 29, by a narrow margin of 218 to 210, the House passed Boehner’s version of the proposal. It included the two-step procedure that the president adamantly opposed.

In the White House at 10 later that night, Obama’s key advisers discussed the House vote. There was a chance the Senate Democrats would fold, because the fastest solution would be to pass the House bill and get out of town for their summer recess. If the bill managed to gain Senate approval, would the president really veto it?
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They were out of options, Geithner said. The only one might be accepting the House bill, loathsome as it might be. “The 2008 financial crisis will be seen as a minor blip if we default,” he said.

The president said, “The Republicans are forcing the risk of a default on us. I can’t stop them from doing that. We can have the fight now, or we can have the fight later on, but the fight is coming to us.”

So, no, Obama said, he was not going to cave. Period. He said good night, got up and left. He was very agitated.
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Obama never had to confront the veto question. A few days later, House Republicans dropped their insistence on the two-step plan. The final plan accepted a debt limit increase that would take the country through the 2012 presidential contest. It also postponed $2.4 trillion in spending cuts until early 2013.

The long-term deficit crisis had not been solved, but merely put off, leaving the United States at the edge of the fiscal cliff, where it remains today.

[Edward64]

More polls after both conventions. Obama is expanding lead according to Gallup and CNN.

Poll: Obama expands advantage over Romney – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs

Three days after the Democratic convention wrapped up, President Barack Obama opened up his largest margin over Mitt Romney since early July in Gallup's daily tracking poll.

According to the poll released Sunday, Obama has 49% among registered voters nationwide, while Romney has 44%.
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According to a CNN/ORC International Poll released Tuesday, Romney received a one point bounce after the GOP event, going from 47% to 48% compared to Obama's 49%.

[Edward64]

Bad situation that Obama is in and wondering how he will respond. Isn't this effectively an act of war? He may surprise us but think this will be another "unfortunate incident etc."

I think this is a mistake politically. He's going to have to show a stronger response or Romney will dog him on this through the elections.

U.S. Envoy to Libya Is Reported Killed - NYTimes.com

The Libyan government said Wednesday that United States ambassador Christopher Stevens was killed along with three of his staff in an attack on the consulate in Benghazi Tuesday night. It was the first death of an American envoy abroad in more than two decades.
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Earlier, an unidentified Libyan official in Benghazi told Reuters that the American ambassador in Libya and three other staff members were killed in Benghazi “when gunmen fired rockets at them.” It was not clear where in the city the attack took place. The Libyan official said the ambassador was being driven from the consulate building to a safer location when gunmen opened fire, Reuters said.

In a message on Twitter, Deputy Prime Minister Mustafa Abu Shagur of Libya said on Wednesday that he condemned “the cowardly act of attacking the U.S. consulate and the killing of Mr Stevens and the other diplomats.”

[JPhillips]

What do you do? Should we start bombing Libyan cities? How would that make the situation any better?

I hope they can find those responsible, but that's likely to be CIA work that we may never know about. There just isn't a satisfying response to a riot.

[sterlingice]

An act of war by whom? The new Libyan government? The rebels we just helped prop up?

My first reaction after I heard about it was "Grow the fuck up, Islam", once again. Every time someone says the wrong thing about Muhammad, we have to worry about reprisals (except for the times they don't care, I guess) because the moderate elements of that society won't kick out the extremist elements of that society.

Egypt mostly had it right: you don't like what was said, go tear down an American flag (tho don't trespass at the Embassy, dopes) or, hell, go burn flags in the street. But you don't go killing people. Not only that, but you just made 50 more people want to make a video talking about how fucked up and backwards your religion and prophet are and you give a voice to those more radical elements opposing you.

SI

[bronconick]

"We were surprised to see the big numbers show up including the soccer Ultra fans," he said. "I just want to say, how would the Americans feel if films insulting leading Christian figures like the pope or historical figures like Abraham Lincoln were produced?"

....I think we'd manage.

[sterlingice]

Stuff like that never happens

SI

[JediKooter]

Originally Posted by Edward64

... Isn't this effectively an act of war? ...


U.S. Envoy to Libya Is Reported Killed - NYTimes.com

So by that logic...A vacationing family from another country is visiting California and is gunned down by some crips or bloods. That's an act of war?

Or an ambassador from another country is murdered here in the US by some fanatical that has no association with the US government other than he lives here. Act of war?

[molson]

Originally Posted by JediKooter

So by that logic...A vacationing family from another country is visiting California and is gunned down by some crips or bloods. That's an act of war?

Or an ambassador from another country is murdered here in the US by some fanatical that has no association with the US government other than he lives here. Act of war?

It would depend how much our government supports and tolerates the crips and bloods. Or whether the crips and bloods really held the power in the U.S. Libya's in transition so it's tough to answer those questions with regard to them. Edit: I actually have confidence in Obama to sort that out and act appropriately though.

[JediKooter]

Originally Posted by molson

It would depend how much our government supports and tolerates the crips and bloods. Or whether the crips and bloods really held the power in the U.S. Libya's in transition so it's tough to answer those questions with regard to them.

Regardless, I find it a stretch to call it an act of war in this situation. And by stretch, you'd have to pull that thing all the way to Pluto. Especially not knowing all of the details yet.