Werewolf XXVIII: Mad Wizard and the Wolves (Game over Pg45)

[Coffee Warlord]

Yes, I am nice and drunk. AND DEAD! DEAD!

DEAD!

DEAD!

[Alan T]

Does that make you Dead drunk???

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Does that make you Dead drunk???

Ya know, it does.

In all honesty, I should be pissed right now, but I had a good time this evening, so whatever. Kick some ass kids.

[SackAttack]

Wow.

Coffee, I'm sorry. I feel bad because I wasn't around to see what was going on, and I honestly don't know what that would have done for my vote. Possibly would have pulled it off of you so that we could force Alan's hand on his supposed vote-switching, but after seeing how late Schmidty came in, I don't know if I would have reacted fast enough.

I thought I was okay leaving my vote where it was because, yeah, I did wonder if you were the wizard, but I didn't think things were going to swing your way so radically or so quickly.

Not sure where this leaves us now. I'm gonna have to sleep on this.

[SirFozzie]

You wake up in the morning, and sadly, the one person for the wolves who knew what was happening is no longer with you. st cronin has been blasted, and now you are adrift in the sea of fate.

Votes are due by 10 PM, Day 6.

[Barkeep49]

No surprise there. Schmidty can you tell us anything more now that our presumed pack alpha has been blown to bits?

[Alan T]

Well, I guess that wasn't a suprise to anyone.

Ok to start today, here are my lists:

Possible Wizard/Henchmen -

4. AlanT
6. Saldana
7. Lathum
11 Tyrith
12.Schmidty

Possible Wizard only -

14.Hoopsguy
10. Sack Attack
2.Barkeep49

I'm not sure exactly why Cronin went after Coffee the way he did, but I think we do not need to do that again today. I think we have numbers on our side and we need to start ruling out people with the highest percentage of being bad (ie: was not confirmed to not be the wizard.) So lets narrow down that list a little more:

4. AlanT
6. Saldana
7. Lathum
11 Tyrith
12.Schmidty


Out of that list, I am not sure if it is safe to go on feels or not, since as we saw last night feels ended up lynching Coffee. What I do think we need to do is try to find a way where the following is possible:

1) We do not make it easy for the wizards to knock off one of our more trusted three people.
2) We need to make it where voting patterns are important, we cant make it easy for the bad guys by just blindly all going after one person.
3) We need to find a way to validate more people if possible.

That leads me to wondering if anyone else has a backup on Cronin's ability, or if we blindly are going to be going into the deadline not knowing what the vote is based on. I also wonder if the wizard knows what the vote will be, something to watch for perhaps are the people racing to be first or last voters perhaps or shaping the vote in a way that after the deadline helps them.

Thoughts on how we should proceed with today?

[hoopsguy]

My first thought is to see if anyone has new information to work with - if someone knows how the vote will work that would be a good start.

Schmidty, if you have some change in status today that would be good information as well.

Lathum, I think we are late enough in the game that having you come forward with some information makes sense. Everyone else remaining has presented some kind of role reveal. The bad guys have the advantage of knowing which ones are real and which ones they made up.

I'm not going to say a word about who I protected last night because I don't want to endanger that person tonight ... same thought process as I used earlier in the game. But I believe I'll have enough flexibility in my choices tonight to protect one of our bigger assets (whoever that person may be).

[Barkeep49]

Alan saldana belongs on your wizard only list and not really at that as I know I'm not the wizard and we have matching roles, something we both agree on, meaning it's either we are both evil or are both vanilla villagers.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Alan saldana belongs on your wizard only list and not really at that as I know I'm not the wizard and we have matching roles, something we both agree on, meaning it's either we are both evil or are both vanilla villagers.

Sorry if I wasn't clear with that list. I was just trying to present the two groups of people based on who Cronin -knew- was not the wizard vs who he didn't sniff.

He obviously felt very strongly about Lathum being trusted even though he hadn't scanned him for instance, so I don't necessarily think any play involving Lathum is a smart one.

I was simply trying to put together a list to start working on without any trusts involved at all. You say you trust Saldana, but arguably you could also be the wizard and he a henchman. Cronin said Sackattack isnt a henchman, but he could be the wizard still and doesn't have much trust due to his late entry in the game. Despite that, I still think today going after Saldana would be a better play than Sack would trust lists aside.

Personally, I would argue going after none of them and would rather us focus still on the same people I have been saying the last several days. I think we were on the right track when I was pushing Anxiety, Schmidty and Tyrith. According to Schmidty, he should be given Cronin's ability to tell us what the vote is, so he should be a pretty simple one to rule out today. I think that leaves Tyrith and me. Tyrith left us with a role that is impossible to verify and if we lose, its not a huge deal. I have a role that can be verified when the vote system is right, but is not a huge deal to lose. Could be useful at the right time, but not a game breaker.

I honestly don't want to die today, this is the furthest into a WW game i have gone, and would like to live to see us win one for once, but I also want to try to do whats best for the team here. I think whats best for us is to try to figure a way to find the info we are missing from those who have been hiding things, and to start ruling people out with the lowest risk, highest gain involved.

[Alan T]

Ok my last post was kind of rambling.. I guess in a nutshell what i was getting at, is I think today and for the next few days its best for us to target going for lowest risk/highest reward voting. I can understand Cronin's desire to try to out the wizard on a gut feel on what looked like his last day, but I think our smart plays now for a while is to eliminate the people who have the highest chance of being bad.

That means working down the list of people that Cronin did not sniff. I think working for the least trusted of the possible henchmen/wizards to most trusted is best. We should be able to nab the henchman hopefully in that list, and then have a 5 to 1 or 6 to 1 odds against the wizard alone at that time.

Hopefully that is less confusing to read

[Barkeep49]

I would agree that working down the list. Right now I am looking at you, tyrith and schmidty. I want to hear more for schmidty today about his role. Of the three candidates I am least wary of tyrith. You and schmidty are close, but I suppose schmidty is the most suspicous although I think he can do the best to alleveate my concern.

[hoopsguy]

Barkeep + Saldana - anything from last night that gives you information into how the voting will work today?

Question goes out to anyone, but those are the two guys who just maybe (based on reveals up to this point) would have something.

[Barkeep49]

No info. And honestly? I don't think we will ever have any kind of special effect. I think we are as plain as yogurt.

[Alan T]

What people say their roles are (confirmed or not)

2.Barkeep49 - Ordinary wolf, vote could be important?
4. AlanT - Tiebreaker
6. Saldana - Said vote could be important like barkeep. Said there was a second part to his role that has not been stated yet.
7. Lathum - Unknown
10. Sack Attack - Unknown
11 Tyrith - Blade's brother
12.Schmidty - Pack Beta
14.Hoopsguy - Bodyguard

So i think we need more information from Saldana, Lathum, Sackattack today. I think Schmidty should be able to play a big role today too.

[hoopsguy]

With the information we have right now, I'm waiting to hear from Schmidty and Lathum before casting a vote.

It feels like the votes are going to be pretty meaningless today if we have no way to determine the key. I'm having a hard time believing that there is no one capable of supplying this information today - what if Cronin had died before we had devoured a henchman (like on Day 1)? I'm guessing SirFozzie has not left us entirely high and dry here ...

[hoopsguy]

Dola - would add SackAttack here as well, although he has a little more latitude (for now) than the other two because according to Lathum he could not be a henchman.

[Barkeep49]

I agree that we're not going to be left high and dry. Which is why schmidty as the "beta" seems like the one who needs to come through for us.

[hoopsguy]

Barkeep, what clears Lathum in your mind - or at least keeps him off the first tier of people to review today? Cronin's late-night explanation didn't entirely do it for me. He wasn't scanned.

I've given him a lot of room to operate this game working under some assumptions for his role, but I've started to re-evaluate those assumptions over the last 24 hours.

[Barkeep49]

You're right there's nothing to objectively keep him off the most suspected list.

[saldana]

i dont think we need to go after schmidty today, as he will verify himself for us at the end of the day. if he is the beta, which would now make him the alpha, then he will know the voting rule today. if he gives a rule, and that is not what the rule ends up being, we will know he is full of shit, and we can eat him tomorrow will apologies to CW.

with that, i really dont like Alan's posts this morning, he seems very anxious to direct the vote today, and is giving out reasons for everyone but himself (which is exactly what he has done in the past when he has been a bad guy). When hoops makes his lists, he always includes himself to an extent, even when he is a bad guy.

Alan has not been verified in any way by anyone, and the role of tiebreaker is a bit of a duplicate if the pack alpha is able to bust a tie as a one time power...seems a little redundant to have the same role twice in a game this small.

vote alant

[st.cronin]

I'm actually glad to be out of this game. It was way too hard. Good luck, fellows.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by saldana

i dont think we need to go after schmidty today, as he will verify himself for us at the end of the day. if he is the beta, which would now make him the alpha, then he will know the voting rule today. if he gives a rule, and that is not what the rule ends up being, we will know he is full of shit, and we can eat him tomorrow will apologies to CW.

with that, i really dont like Alan's posts this morning, he seems very anxious to direct the vote today, and is giving out reasons for everyone but himself (which is exactly what he has done in the past when he has been a bad guy). When hoops makes his lists, he always includes himself to an extent, even when he is a bad guy.

Alan has not been verified in any way by anyone, and the role of tiebreaker is a bit of a duplicate if the pack alpha is able to bust a tie as a one time power...seems a little redundant to have the same role twice in a game this small.

vote alant

I am not sure what you mean by trying to direct the votes this morning.. I'm doing the same thing I do every day, every WW game that I play. Try to give my analysis of things. Considering I have already said that I think the best play right now would probably be a run off between Tyrith and myself I have a hard time believing that you read my entire posts.

[Alan T]

Dola, and actually I believe there are three players with the ability to break the tie. If I remember right the wizard does too. However the difference is that my tiebreaker role is passive where it just happens, there's is not.

I think tiebreaker is moot right now anyways, its just a 1/6 chance that it could happen if Cronin was right about how the vote works, and even then we have to end in a tie. I am fully willing to prove I can break ties to you all, but right now I don't even think that is the issue. I think its more a case of us trying to rule out the biggest risks/least rewards and like I said a few times this morning, I am definitly high up on that list.

Today my vote is: VOTE TYRITH once again. Just like yesterday, if he is a wolf, we don't lose anything by it. He is in zero circles of trust, and we don't lose a role. On the plus side he has the possibility of being the henchman or the wizard, and has been on my highest suspect lists for most of the game.

[Schmidty]

I just logged on, and as of yet, have not recieved a PM about my role changing. I don't know if that means that Cronin wasn't the Alpha, or that SF just hasn't notified me yet.

I just sent him a PM, so hopefully I'll know soon.

[Alan T]

Hmm.. Cronin gave at least 95% if not 100% disclosure on his role before he died. I don't see anywhere that he referred to himself as the pack alpha. Maybe one of the remaining wolves is actually the pack alpha, and Cronin was simply just the seer.

I think if Cronin had been pack alpha, he would have actually referred to himself as such by at least yesterday.

[Schmidty]

Foz just got back to me via PM, and although I'm obviously not allowed to quote him, my role hasn't changed.

To me, this means that Cronin was NOT the Alpha, and that the Alpha is still alive (or else I would have been notified).

[saldana]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

Foz just got back to me via PM, and although I'm obviously not allowed to quote him, my role hasn't changed.

To me, this means that Cronin was NOT the Alpha, and that the Alpha is still alive (or else I would have been notified).

or it means that you are not the beta and jerked all of us off yesterday

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by saldana

or it means that you are not the beta and jerked all of us off yesterday

Nope.

Here is proof that Cronin was NOT the Alpha:

Post #364:

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I am not the, or a, seer. I am the Lawgiver, which means that I have some insight into how the rules about breaking ties fluctuate - and they DO fluctuate. Yesterday I got confused about whether that was a pm, or a rule, and that's why I was after Blade - but anyway, that was a bad play on my part, and now I've revealed my role, for better or worse. I had an insight last night (not a foz pm, a real insight) that hoops was playing us. He fingered three suspects, and wanted us all to start talking strategy DURING NIGHT 0! When the henchmen were, theoretically, still thinking about who to either convert or scan. And Blade is spot on about hoops trying to get people to give up roles - I've seen him do that before as a badguy. He smells fishy, boys.

I tentatively aligned myself with him yesterday just as a way of getting the game going. This is the same theory I have seen others use when they try to put pressure on other players, just to see what will happen.

It's possible I'm way off base, here.

He specifically capitalizes "Lawgiver" as if it is his specific role. He does not say anything about being the Alpha.

[Schmidty]

Since we can a full victory if the Alpha lives, even if I die, I will tell you guys the specifics of my role.

As I have said, my specific role is Pack Beta. If the Alpha is killed, I assume all powers and abilities that he has. Essencially I become the new Alpha. Until then, I do not know who the Alpha is, and I do not specifically know what his powers are.

There you go.

[Alan T]

I tend to believe Schmidty here in that Cronin wasn't the pack alpha. Whether or not you believe Schmidty's story about being the beta is another thing. But I think its fairly safe to say Cronin was not the boss wolf.

[saldana]

the use of the name Lawgiver isnt quite enough for me, considering the other abilities cronin had were not consistant with that being his role....the ability to sniff out the henchmen for instance, has nothing to do with knowing the tiebreaker rules...any explanation for that....imo, cronin made up the Lawgiver role to try and cover that he was the alpha for a day or two so he didnt get whacked at night, but unless the pack leader is entirely powerless, then we would have heard something from him by now.

[saldana]

dola, kind of amusing to me at this point that my top two suspects are defending one another (or at least alan is backing schmidty's plays, even before he makes them in the case of saying cronin wasnt the alpha)

[Schmidty]

I don't know what to tell you guys.

I gave you the truth like you asked. What else can I do?

[Alan T]

Saldana after Cronin gave a full disclosure of his role, and pretty much was gurantueed next to die, and schmidty disclosed his supposed role yesterday, don't you think one of Cronin's last words would have been... I was pack alpha, see if Schmidty's story sticks up tommorrow?

I am not quite sure what you are up to today Sal, but you seem to be more aggresive than analytical, and I don't quite see the reasoning for it. I wasn't attacking you for trying to kill off coffee yesterday, but I do think it was a bad play, have given my reasons and why I think the best plays today are Tyrith or myself. If that makes me suspicious in your books, then go for it.

[hoopsguy]

At this point I'm eager to hear what Lathum has to say. I don't buy that "Lawgiver" was the official name of Cronin's role, although I don't 100% accept that it was "Alpha" either.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

At this point I'm eager to hear what Lathum has to say. I don't buy that "Lawgiver" was the official name of Cronin's role, although I don't 100% accept that it was "Alpha" either.

Why would he capitalize it? It makes no sense to NOT believe that the official name was Lawgiver.

[saldana]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Saldana after Cronin gave a full disclosure of his role, and pretty much was gurantueed next to die, and schmidty disclosed his supposed role yesterday, don't you think one of Cronin's last words would have been... I was pack alpha, see if Schmidty's story sticks up tommorrow?

I am not quite sure what you are up to today Sal, but you seem to be more aggresive than analytical, and I don't quite see the reasoning for it. I wasn't attacking you for trying to kill off coffee yesterday, but I do think it was a bad play, have given my reasons and why I think the best plays today are Tyrith or myself. If that makes me suspicious in your books, then go for it.

i agree with you that the best plays are yourself or tyrith, but schmidty has made his way back onto my list...his reveal is similar to yours, totally unverified. as far as my play style becoming more agressive today than it was earlier in the game, if you go back to games where i have lived long enough, i always do this...i do alot of observing early and then become more action oriented late....i'll forgive you for not noticing this, since it is often difficult to follow along in games where you have been dead for 3 days

[Alan T]

And in fact, here is my current list of risk/reward ratio and who I think the best to worst lynch candidates are in as objective a manner I can provide:

11 Tyrith - no confirmed trust, could be wizard or henchman, no big deal if role is lost.
4. AlanT - no confirmed trust, could be wizard or henchman, role is minor and only matters in certain circumstances.
6. Saldana - trust from Barkeep & Coffee, could be wizard or henchman, no big deal if role is lost.
12.Schmidty - no confirmed trust, could be wizard or henchman, Role sounds fairly middle importance. Could be important if true and alpha dies.
7. Lathum - Highly trusted by cronin, could be wizard or henchman, no declared role lost if dies.
10. Sack Attack - confirmed trust from cronin. Could only be wizard. No declared role lost if dies.
2.Barkeep49 - trust from cronin, saldana and coffee. Could only be wizard. No role lost if dies.
14.Hoopsguy - trust from cronin, could only be wizard. Big role lost if dies.

So this is my reasoning for who I say to go after today. This is probably all I'll try to give on my opinions of today's decision. if you all choose to just go on your gut again today and pick someone randomly, then I feel I have done my best to make this an educated process. If anyone wants to try to set up a tie for me to prove my role if that voting condition exists, I am fine with that as long as its not involving someone of greater risk.

Saldana seems to feel I am guilty, so I'm not going to try to convince him otherwise. i don't have anything else to go on other than :

My actions have been consistant the entire game.
I have given reasons for why I changed my opinions of people as they changed.
I have not been right about every one of my votes, but I feel I have done as much as anyone to try to help us win.

[saldana]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

Why would he capitalize it? It makes no sense to NOT believe that the official name was Lawgiver.

except that it doesnt match up with what his role actually did in its entirety. sure the Lawgiver makes perfect sense for the delivering the new rules, but what part of that covers his partial seer abilities. whereas being the pack alpha, being able to determine who is part of the pack and who isnt makes 100% logical sense.

unvote alant
vote schmidty

since you avoided that point the first time, you may now have my vote.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by saldana

i agree with you that the best plays are yourself or tyrith, but schmidty has made his way back onto my list...his reveal is similar to yours, totally unverified. as far as my play style becoming more agressive today than it was earlier in the game, if you go back to games where i have lived long enough, i always do this...i do alot of observing early and then become more action oriented late....i'll forgive you for not noticing this, since it is often difficult to follow along in games where you have been dead for 3 days

You've got to be fucking kidding me. I give you exactly what you want (the truth), and yet I even MORE suspicious now? It looks to me like you're just fishing for info by dangling your "trust" out there.

Vote saldana

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by saldana

i agree with you that the best plays are yourself or tyrith, but schmidty has made his way back onto my list...his reveal is similar to yours, totally unverified. as far as my play style becoming more agressive today than it was earlier in the game, if you go back to games where i have lived long enough, i always do this...i do alot of observing early and then become more action oriented late....i'll forgive you for not noticing this, since it is often difficult to follow along in games where you have been dead for 3 days

Its ok, I dont fully remember people's play style from game to game so you are right all I notice is today you have done what i felt was try to trap me in a shouting match or such (perhaps thinking i am bad trying to draw me into a trap or who knows what). As far as playing style goes, I play pretty much every game the same. Its the reason why I usually get lynched by my own side by day 3. lol I am honestly just trying to put as much data out there for people to make educated decisions on is all. I won't take it personally if people feel they should vote for me, however I won't vote for myself because 1) I am a wolf and 2) I think there is a better choice out there. I just don't want today to be some runaway where everyone finds it easy to just lump all their votes on one person which causes it virtually impossible to learn anything from the vote.

Without the seer in the game now, all we have to go on are people's votes. I just don't want to make the last 8 days a guessing game every day especially with these crazy voting rules from foz.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

It looks to me like you're just fishing for info by dangling your "trust" out there.

The more I think about it, that is exactly what's happening.

He acts like he trusts me yesterday, and then I role reveal, explain my role and suddenly he distrusts me.

I am quite convinced that he's a henchman, and I hope others will look closely at him.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Alan T

11 Tyrith - no confirmed trust, could be wizard or henchman, no big deal if role is lost.
4. AlanT - no confirmed trust, could be wizard or henchman, role is minor and only matters in certain circumstances.
6. Saldana - trust from Barkeep & Coffee, could be wizard or henchman, no big deal if role is lost.
12.Schmidty - no confirmed trust, could be wizard or henchman, Role sounds fairly middle importance. Could be important if true and alpha dies.
7. Lathum - Highly trusted by cronin, could be wizard or henchman, no declared role lost if dies.
10. Sack Attack - confirmed trust from cronin. Could only be wizard. No declared role lost if dies.
2.Barkeep49 - trust from cronin, saldana and coffee. Could only be wizard. No role lost if dies.
14.Hoopsguy - trust from cronin, could only be wizard. Big role lost if dies.

Sorry I didnt update my list entirely from yesterday that I keep in notepad. For Hoops, I didn't remove the could only be wizard part. When I asked Cronin if he could verify Hoops's story about the protection and he did, that confirmed for me that he is neither the wizard nor the henchman. In my notes, Hoops is the only confirmed wolf entirely that we have currently.

[saldana]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

The more I think about it, that is exactly what's happening.

He acts like he trusts me yesterday, and then I role reveal, explain my role and suddenly he distrusts me.

I am quite convinced that he's a henchman, and I hope others will look closely at him.

if i am a henchman, that means that so is barkeep, who was vouched for by cronin, and CW, who is proven to be a good guy, and vouched for by cronin. not alot of sense in that statement

[saldana]

dola, you made a reveal that is completely unverifyable, and you have gone this entire game completely un-supported by any other player, you are as good a suspect as any.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by saldana

if i am a henchman, that means that so is barkeep, who was vouched for by cronin, and CW, who is proven to be a good guy, and vouched for by cronin. not alot of sense in that statement

I just don't understand why you would stick up for me a bit prior to today, and then as soon as I give you everything I know, you turn on me?

That doesn't make any sense either, and actually screams henchman.

The only thing I can think of that can defend you, is the fact that you were the first to open up on me, and I'm not sure that a bad guy would put himself out there like that.

[saldana]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

I just don't understand why you would stick up for me a bit prior to today, and then as soon as I give you everything I know, you turn on me?

That doesn't make any sense either, and actually screams henchman.

The only thing I can think of that can defend you, is the fact that you were the first to open up on me, and I'm not sure that a bad guy would put himself out there like that.

when did i stick up for you? this is the 3rd time i have voted for you. the only reason i took my vote off you yesterday was because hoops, lathum and cronin both thought coffee was a better option (with which i didnt have a problem with, as he was close to the top of my wizard list).

[Lathum]

OK, I am 99% positive on schmidty being a good guy. If you all recall I was 99% sure on blade and that was spot on so you will have to trust me.

Monster theory coming.

[Lathum]

dola-post 649 was where i vouched for blade