2023 NFL Regular Season Thread

[molson]

I wonder what would have happened if Broncos kept winning. It sounds like this decision was made months ago, and at at some point they went to Wilson and told him they'd make him inactive he didn't alter some things in his contract. But then they won 5 in a row and seemed like a playoff team. And Wilson looked way better than last year.

Losing to the Patriots at home to destroy your playoff chances seems like a last straw kind of loss, but, do they make that move they don't make that long field goal at the end and are still in the playoff race?

[Ksyrup]

I know what the numbers look like and what they appear to say, and yes, he's been better than last year (credit to Payton for that), but this is not a good offense and Wilson is extremely limited in what he can do. Reading article after article talking about how "great" he has been is obviously just people looking at the numbers and not watching the games. If it wasn't for the defense forcing an unsustainable number of TOs during the winning streak - most of which were converted into punts and FGs, from memory - this would have been a 4-5 win team.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by molson

And that's probably still not as bad as the Watson trade.

Yeah, that's a tough one.

It sounds like the Broncos are going to try and trade him, and they'll probably be successful as I'm sure some team will be dumb enough to think they can make Russ cook, so they'll get out from under the contract and maybe get some draft capital back. But that's one or two years in real cap hell.

OTOH, it doesn't seem like the Browns have any such plans for Watson. He's still young enough for them to kid themselves for the next few years that he's just around the corner from being fit and returning to form. So I'll predict that they'll just drift along for the next few years with a bunch of frustrating games from Watson and wild swings from backups when he's out.

I think I just talked myself into the Watson one being worse. If the Broncos move decisively now, the ramifications will be over in a couple of years and if they've rebuilt properly and are on an upward trajectory no one will care.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

I know what the numbers look like and what they appear to say, and yes, he's been better than last year (credit to Payton for that), but this is not a good offense and Wilson is extremely limited in what he can do. Reading article after article talking about how "great" he has been is obviously just people looking at the numbers and not watching the games. If it wasn't for the defense forcing an unsustainable number of TOs during the winning streak - most of which were converted into punts and FGs, from memory - this would have been a 4-5 win team.

From what I've read Payton is over him not running his offense. He wants to big play hunt until the play breaks down and then run around and do his Seattle stuff and those skills really aren't there anymore for Rus. Payton's offense is a strict, get it out quickly offense that Rus doesn't seem to want to run.

[Atocep]

This game is hideous

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by Atocep

From what I've read Payton is over him not running his offense. He wants to big play hunt until the play breaks down and then run around and do his Seattle stuff and those skills really aren't there anymore for Rus. Payton's offense is a strict, get it out quickly offense that Rus doesn't seem to want to run.

The most effective offense they've run with Russ is the Samaje Perine 2 minute offense which is just him dumping the ball off to Perine while the D is in semi-prevent defense and he gets 5-15 yards a pop. But otherwise, it seems like 75% of his throws are at or behind the LOS. I bet Denver leads the league in YAC from behind the LOS.

[CrimsonFox]

Fucking Pickens and Rudolph! Amazing! Who ARE these guys?

[flere-imsaho]

I think if I'm the Bears I stick with Fields and try to use my two first round picks to come away with Harrison, O-line help, and some additional draft capital.

I then offer Ben Johnson quadruple what the Lions are paying him, or triple whatever someone's willing to offer him to be a HC.

I also show Fields a list of QBs that retired in the last 10 years and ask him who on that list he respects, meaning, specifically, if they were watching film with him and they said "yeah, that was a poor decision" he wouldn't be offended, but would be grateful for the advice. I'd then go and hire that person as a QB mentor for the next season.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

I think if I'm the Bears I stick with Fields and try to use my two first round picks to come away with Harrison, O-line help, and some additional draft capital.

I then offer Ben Johnson quadruple what the Lions are paying him, or triple whatever someone's willing to offer him to be a HC.

I also show Fields a list of QBs that retired in the last 10 years and ask him who on that list he respects, meaning, specifically, if they were watching film with him and they said "yeah, that was a poor decision" he wouldn't be offended, but would be grateful for the advice. I'd then go and hire that person as a QB mentor for the next season.

I'm done with Fields. Maybe a better offensive coordinator will develop him somewhere else, but I haven't seen enough improvement through 3 years and the opportunity to reset the rookie deal clock on a QB is way to good to pass up. That opportunity is so tempting that unless Fields is a top 10 QB this year or trending that way I think you draft a QB. If you keep Fields another year you risk painting yourself into the same corner the Giants are in with Daniel Jones.

Bill Barnwell projected that Fields would likely pull a top half of the 2nd round pick in return in a trade. So you get a better prospect on a rookie deal and you recoup the pick spent too acquire Sweat. At that point the options with the 2nd first is to take Nabors/Odunze or take a tackle if Alt or Fashanu fall and move Wright to guard. Either way, I think that's a far stronger foundation than moving forward with Fields with Harrison Jr.

Sweat's play has improved the entire defense so far and with Jones/Dexter playing better I'm not sure a 3 technique is the need it appeared to be. At the very least, it can wait until the 2nd (assuming Fields gets that as a return) to address it.

Another interesting decision will be Jaylon Johnson. He's developed into a legit #1 corner, but Kyler Gordon has progressed very well this year and Stevenson/Terrell have been good as rookies. I'd prefer to keep Johnson, but I can see the argument for letting him go or doing a 1 year franchise deal to maintain cap flexibility since corner already has some solid, young depth.

One of the most telling stats with Fields:

He has a QBR of about 45 this year (ranks 22nd). He has exactly 1 games this year with a QBR within 20 points either way of that number. Out of his 11 starts he's had a QBR of 65+ in 5 of them and a QBR under 20 in 5 others. That other start he had a QBR of 42.

How bad are those under 20 QBR starts? The lowest QBR for a qualifying QB is 30 (Zach Wilson). Zach Wilson has played in 1 more game than Fields this year and has less games with a QBR under 20 despite being the worst starting QB in the NFL.

[GrantDawg]

So many Falcons fans are clamoring to trade for Fields, and I think he would be an unmitigated disaster in Atlanta.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

So many Falcons fans are clamoring to trade for Fields, and I think he would be an unmitigated disaster in Atlanta.

There are some teams out there that it makes sense for them to gamble on him. The Falcons are not one of them.

Cleveland with Stefanski and have a couple years of him until you can reasonably release Watson might make the most sense. He's the type of guy Seattle likes to gamble on. It wouldn't be a bad idea for Minnesota. Cousins will be gone and they're unlikely to be in position to draft a QB. Maybe even the Giants and let him work with Daboll.

Teams like Atlanta, Arizona, Washington, etc. need to stay away until they have better talent and a better coaching staff in place.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Atocep

There are some teams out there that it makes sense for them to gamble on him. The Falcons are not one of them.

Cleveland with Stefanski and have a couple years of him until you can reasonably release Watson might make the most sense. He's the type of guy Seattle likes to gamble on. It wouldn't be a bad idea for Minnesota. Cousins will be gone and they're unlikely to be in position to draft a QB. Maybe even the Giants and let him work with Daboll.

Teams like Atlanta, Arizona, Washington, etc. need to stay away until they have better talent and a better coaching staff in place.

I think you are underestimating Atlanta's talent. That is not the issue. It is that he is completely opposite of a quarterback that can work in Smith system. Smith needs a guy that takes snaps from center. That can keep his back to the defense on play-action, and knows where to immediately go with the ball when he turns. Fields does not strike me as someone that can do that.
As for Washington, that might be a good fit. Eric Beinemy (as long as he stays) does run an offense that fits Field's skill set. If Atlanta fired Smith and hire Bienemy I wouldn't have much of a problem giving Fields a shot.

[GrantDawg]

That was some super crappy prevent defense there.

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[GrantDawg]

This game is drunk.

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[Ksyrup]

How stupid

[GrantDawg]

Dallas hands them the tie, and then you do that.

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[Ksyrup]

I had no problem going for it from the 2. Then they showed 3 plays before going with a 4th play from the 4. Kick it.

[weegeebored]

Originally Posted by Atocep

I'm done with Fields. Maybe a better offensive coordinator will develop him somewhere else, but I haven't seen enough improvement through 3 years and the opportunity to reset the rookie deal clock on a QB is way to good to pass up. That opportunity is so tempting that unless Fields is a top 10 QB this year or trending that way I think you draft a QB. If you keep Fields another year you risk painting yourself into the same corner the Giants are in with Daniel Jones.

Bill Barnwell projected that Fields would likely pull a top half of the 2nd round pick in return in a trade. So you get a better prospect on a rookie deal and you recoup the pick spent too acquire Sweat. At that point the options with the 2nd first is to take Nabors/Odunze or take a tackle if Alt or Fashanu fall and move Wright to guard. Either way, I think that's a far stronger foundation than moving forward with Fields with Harrison Jr.

Sweat's play has improved the entire defense so far and with Jones/Dexter playing better I'm not sure a 3 technique is the need it appeared to be. At the very least, it can wait until the 2nd (assuming Fields gets that as a return) to address it.

Another interesting decision will be Jaylon Johnson. He's developed into a legit #1 corner, but Kyler Gordon has progressed very well this year and Stevenson/Terrell have been good as rookies. I'd prefer to keep Johnson, but I can see the argument for letting him go or doing a 1 year franchise deal to maintain cap flexibility since corner already has some solid, young depth.

One of the most telling stats with Fields:

He has a QBR of about 45 this year (ranks 22nd). He has exactly 1 games this year with a QBR within 20 points either way of that number. Out of his 11 starts he's had a QBR of 65+ in 5 of them and a QBR under 20 in 5 others. That other start he had a QBR of 42.

How bad are those under 20 QBR starts? The lowest QBR for a qualifying QB is 30 (Zach Wilson). Zach Wilson has played in 1 more game than Fields this year and has less games with a QBR under 20 despite being the worst starting QB in the NFL.

Great post. I think they should pay Jaylon Johnson, and earlier in the year I would have said the opposite. They have the money and good CBs are hard to find. But the Bears are gonna Bears, so they probably will eff up this offseason per usual. Poles stays, Eberflus stays, Getsy goes (probably), they'll keep Fields, trade the first pick, outsmart themselves in the draft, and make some mediocre FA signings.

And as Sgt Roger Murtaugh said, "I'm too old for this shit."

[Thomkal]

Dear Football Gods:


Please let the Jags blow the Panthers out early so CBS switches to the MIA/BAL game so I don't have to watch that likely sucky game. Thank you Gods.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Dear Football Gods:


Please let the Jags blow the Panthers out early so CBS switches to the MIA/BAL game so I don't have to watch that likely sucky game. Thank you Gods.

Trevor Lawrence isn’t playing.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by dubb93

Trevor Lawrence isn’t playing.

yeah but this is the year of the backup qb being great so that's what i am hoping for here.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

So many Falcons fans are clamoring to trade for Fields, and I think he would be an unmitigated disaster in Atlanta.

Falcons fans aren't the most, umm, football savvy bunch.

They already have one QB that doesn't have a fucking clue, why anyone would want a matched set is inexplicable.

(okay, not really ... you & I both know why any Falcons fan would advocate acquiring Fields)

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Falcons fans aren't the most, umm, football savvy bunch.

They already have one QB that doesn't have a fucking clue, why anyone would want a matched set is inexplicable.

(okay, not really ... you & I both know why any Falcons fan would advocate acquiring Fields)

The Mike Vick effect. He is closer to Vick than anyone this side of Lamar Jackson. The fans clamoring for him are the same fans that hated Matt Ryan because he wasn't Mike Vick.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

The Mike Vick effect. He is closer to Vick than anyone this side of Lamar Jackson. The fans clamoring for him are the same fans that hated Matt Ryan because he wasn't Mike Vick.

I'd say the majority are people who want him because he once slept in Athens.

[Brian Swartz]

I thought the idea was for the Falcons to sign Russell Wilson after Denver cuts him, because:

- Some think it's a Falcons kind of thing to do
- Big receivers are an asset to the way Wilson plays
- Bijan Robinson could be very effective with the 20 swing passes he would get per game.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

I'd say the majority are people who want him because he once slept in Athens.

And he is from Georgia, I think that is minor compared to the desire for the Mike Vick effect.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

I thought the idea was for the Falcons to sign Russell Wilson after Denver cuts him, because:

- Some think it's a Falcons kind of thing to do
- Big receivers are an asset to the way Wilson plays
- Bijan Robinson could be very effective with the 20 swing passes he would get per game.

It all depends on several things, but I do think that is the most likely thing to happen. The fans hate the idea though (or at least the pro-Fields contingent which is pretty vocal). It is the age, recent failure, and the fear he is going to eventually demand insane cap space. To me, he is a pretty good fit. I see the negatives, but since his wife is a local I think we will be his top choice.

[GrantDawg]

These guys slinging the ball around in the steady snow in Chicago.

[GrantDawg]

Calais Cambell now has 6.5 sacks on the year at the age 103.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

yeah but this is the year of the backup qb being great so that's what i am hoping for here.

They appear to be listening-Panthers kicker hurt in pre-game workout and likely won't play forcing the panthers to go for it on some fourth downs, which they did and they then sacked young and knocked him out of the game.

[GrantDawg]

Justin Fields is playing so well here at the end of the year, the Bears have to be thinking "why move on?" Can you imagine the haul they can get for the number one overall pick? Caleb Williams has already sent signals he doesn't want to play there. Why draft a guy like that when you already have a quarterback?

[AlexB]

I’m sat at home watching the Dolphins literally saying out loud ‘don’t snap it, don’t snap it’… no good was ever going to come from that, and there was no need.

[albionmoonlight]

This week, there were a lot of “why didn’t other teams just pay Baker $4 million to play this season?” stories. This game is answering those questions.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

This week, there were a lot of “why didn’t other teams just pay Baker $4 million to play this season?” stories. This game is answering those questions.

I would take him over what the Falcons have in a heart beat. One bad game doesn't erase what has been a solid season.

[GrantDawg]

I watched Peyton Manning throw 4 interceptions in a game. The bum.

[thesloppy]

These ravens still look like the best team in the league

[Coffee Warlord]

Bears clinch the #1 overall again, thank you Carolina.

[JPhillips]

If a video game refused to win as many times as did the Giants I'd blow a gasket.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

They appear to be listening-Panthers kicker hurt in pre-game workout and likely won't play forcing the panthers to go for it on some fourth downs, which they did and they then sacked young and knocked him out of the game.

The gods turned against me-had both shutouts into the 4th quarter games and they stayed with them rather than going to more competetive games. Thanks Gods

[Honolulu_Blue]

Matty Patty definitely fixed the Eagles’ defensive woes.

[Thomkal]

of course my beloved cards can only beat their old nfc east rivals-when no one predicted them to do so-just like they wrote it up

[Thomkal]

nice game for former coastal carolina TE Likely-2 td's for Bal today

[CrimsonFox]

Packers gonna pack

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

nice game for former coastal carolina TE-2 td's for Bal today

I feel like he would be a starter on most teams. That one handed catch was crazy.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I feel like he would be a starter on most teams. That one handed catch was crazy.

Yeah that catch was sweet and that walk untouched into the end zone on the other TD was too. I would like him to be more consistent stat-wise. He can disappear some games. I have to think Mark Andrews is going to retire soon so seems like Baltimore is tailor made for him.

[weegeebored]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Justin Fields is playing so well here at the end of the year, the Bears have to be thinking "why move on?" Can you imagine the haul they can get for the number one overall pick? Caleb Williams has already sent signals he doesn't want to play there. Why draft a guy like that when you already have a quarterback?

Here's my main problem with Fields -- while he is capable of amazing runs and escapism, and also some brilliant throws, he still processes the defense too slowly. His field vision is poor. His awesome passes tend to occur when he is not under pressure. During yesterday's game, CBS showed a stat about his completion % when he is under pressure vs not. It was quite telling, and it's not a one-off game stat. This is his normal level of play. He's a franchise QB when he has time to throw, and less-than-mediocre when he doesn't. And realistically, how long do running QBs last? The financial aspect is important as well. He's still relatively cheap even if the Bears pick up his 5th year option, but after that? Is he a $40-$50-$60 million QB? I don't think so. (It's the Daniel Jones situation as someone already mentioned.)

Can the Bears win with Fields at QB? Yes. If they improve their pass rush and O-line and get a smart OC that won't give up on the run and has a feel for the game in real-time. Can they win a Super Bowl with Fields? The only scenario that can happen in is if they have a defense like the '85 Bears, '91 Eagles, or the 2000 Ravens. In today's NFL offense-dominated world those stifling defenses don't exist anymore.

I already posted earlier what I think the Bears will do. But if I'm in Poles shoes I am definitely looking at QBs. I don't want Williams (a little short and has attitude issues) and Mayes is another UNC guy who has played against questionable competition so no thanks. Maybe there's gold in the second QB tier. Trading out of the #1 pick is very appealing as the Bears are not one player away from being a true SB contender. Should be an interesting off-season.

[Brian Swartz]

I think the offense domination has been overblown. Average points scored this year are 22.0; 20.7 in 2000, to use the year of the Ravens. The Browns defense, with lots of injuries, has allowed 4.5 yards/play; that Baltimore team allowed 4.3. Great defenses are very much still possible. I think Cleveland this year would really be on the same level basically if they had stayed healthy on that side.

[weegeebored]

Cleveland hasn't really played any offensive powerhouses this season. The Bears should have beaten them. How good are they really.

[Sweed]

Originally Posted by weegeebored

Cleveland hasn't really played any offensive powerhouses this season. The Bears should have beaten them. How good are they really.

They beat the Niners and held them to 215 yds, 3.9 yds per play.

They played the post bye week Rams and were beaten soundly with the Rams rolling up 399 yds, 6.4 yds per play. The Rams also moved the ball well against Baltimore and probably should have won that game too.

Bears put up 236 yds, 3.4 yds per play, and a special teams TD.

I think Cleveland's D is pretty damn good, but in today's NFL a good offense will more than likely prevail.

[Brian Swartz]

How good were the 2000 Ravens really, since they gave up 36 points in Week 2 to a Jacksonville team that would finish 7-9, and were only 5-4 at midseason? We remember how great they were at the end of the year, but it's not like they played the whole season that way.

Cleveland's not a great team, but that's because of their offense. They are 11-5 while ranking 26th in yards/play and leading the league in interceptions thrown, second only to Minnesota in turnover rate by their offense. And they are still a good team despite all of that. If their offense was merely average we'd be asking whether they were Super Bowl favorites (and if you fully buy the Flacco Kool-Aid, which I don't, it's a legit question to ask now).

They're the only team that's beaten both Baltimore and San Francisco this year. From a team and not just defense perspective, I think that has to count for something.